Playing BJ 1 on 1, or to very left

[CasinoKid]

Hi there. I recently started playing blackjack at a casino without any understanding of betting guides, my only experience with blackjack so far was in videogames for imaginary money on my tv set. I play at SkyCity Adelaide in Australia, they do not use a hole card and dealer always stays on a hard or soft 17. The first few games I was by myself, so it was just me and the dealer, and I quickly figured out that I could make my moves based on what the dealer was going to draw next if I did not hit for another card.

Say I have a 14 and the dealer is showing an 8. According to the basic strategy I should hit because the dealer is probably going to draw a 9 or higher to make at least 17 which will beat me. So I will be hitting because I think the dealer will get that 9 or higher card. But if I think the next card will probably be a 9 or higher then that means I will probably go bust. What I want the next card for me to be is a 7 or lower. But if I’m hoping for a 7 or lower, wouldn’t I be better off letting the dealer have the 7 to make 15 and then draw ANOTHER 7 or higher that will probably bust the dealer? The basic strategy on the whole seems rock solid, it is almost the same as the strategy I worked out in my head, except in situations like this. It doesn’t make sense to me for ME to hit when I think the next card will win for the dealer, but if I take that same card it would send me bust. I will probably lose either way, so wouldn’t I be better off keeping my 14 rather than taking the chance of going bust?

I'm not sure if I expressed that idea properly, but is that a good way to play? Or is my whole logic with caring that the next card will go to the dealer if I don't take it really flawed, like does it not matter?

I really enjoy blackjack, I have played 6 games so far, starting with 50 dollars for each one and I always walk away with 100 dollars, I double my money. Usually while playing I end up with 200 dollars, but then I lose my winnings down to a 100 and then walk away while I am still ahead. A question about my winnings so far, has it just been luck that I have been walking away with double my money, have I been walking away too soon, or have I been doing ok with walking away with 50 extra dollars?

Thanks for your help ^_^ They don't teach you these kind of things in school, so I look forward to your answers.

EDIT: I do not count cards and for some reason I often assume the next card will be worth 10. Is that also a bad mind frame, assuming the next card will be a 10?

[EasyRhino]

It doesn't matter.

One hand you might take a card that would have helped the dealer, another hand you might take a card that would hurt the dealer. Basic strategy already accounts for this.

[Stradf]

Originally Posted by CasinoKid

EDIT: I do not count cards and for some reason I often assume the next card will be worth 10. Is that also a bad mind frame, assuming the next card will be a 10?

Yes it is. You tend to underestimate the number of low cards. There are still A,2,3,4,5 and 6 that you didn't account of. Let's say the next card is 6 and you chose to stand; dealer now has 14, meaning 3,4,5,6,7 will make him win, and A-2 will STILL give him a chance to win.

Let's assume next card is 9,10; if you stand, you lose. Let's say it's 8. If you stand, you most likely win, as the dealer will have 16, worse hand (still, A 2 3 4 5, roughly 5/13 will make him win). Let's say it's 4,5,6,7; if you hit, you most likely win. If it's A,2,3, the dealer has 9-10-11 and will most likley win. Therefore, Hit! (at least from what you say)

[TENNBEAR]

Casino Kid: The best way to learn and understand basic strategy is to get a good blackjack book. The one I recommend is Playing Blackjack Like the Pro's by Kevin Blackwood (Available at this site under books and software) The book goes into detail how all Basic strategy works, as well as much more information that will help your blackjack game. They are many other Blackjack books that explain basic strategy very well.

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Originally Posted by CasinoKid

it is almost the same as the strategy I worked out in my head

ya, um, prolly not good to do that when your basing it on ploppy logic, assumptions, and being psychic.. if you come to a forum before you read a few books and websites, you will have endless questions.. if you dont want to really get into complex stuff, and just want to play, take my advice and print out a basic strategy chart and take it with you to the tables, its as easy as reading a multiplication chart, and the casinos wont care if you use it.. of course if your like me, you will question everything (even things you say yourself) and want to prove to yourself why bs is correct

Originally Posted by TENNBEAR

Casino Kid: The best way to learn and understand basic strategy is to get a good blackjack book. The one I recommend is Playing Blackjack Like the Pro's by Kevin Blackwood (Available at this site under books and software) The book goes into detail how all Basic strategy works, as well as much more information that will help your blackjack game. They are many other Blackjack books that explain basic strategy very well.

that is the only blackjack book i actually own, it is good (i work at a library, so why buy books)

[ColorMeUp]

Originally Posted by CasinoKid

Say I have a 14 and the dealer is showing an 8. According to the basic strategy I should hit because the dealer is probably going to draw a 9 or higher to make at least 17 which will beat me. So I will be hitting because I think the dealer will get that 9 or higher card. But if I think the next card will probably be a 9 or higher then that means I will probably go bust. What I want the next card for me to be is a 7 or lower. But if I’m hoping for a 7 or lower, wouldn’t I be better off letting the dealer have the 7 to make 15 and then draw ANOTHER 7 or higher that will probably bust the dealer? The basic strategy on the whole seems rock solid, it is almost the same as the strategy I worked out in my head, except in situations like this. It doesn’t make sense to me for ME to hit when I think the next card will win for the dealer, but if I take that same card it would send me bust. I will probably lose either way, so wouldn’t I be better off keeping my 14 rather than taking the chance of going bust?

I think what you're missing is that it isn't just dependent on the very next card. In other words, using your example, the dealer could pull a 2 then pull a 10 for a total of 20. Or a 3 then a 10 for 21, or a 4 then a 8 etc. So probability says that with a 14 against an 8 you have a better chance of winning by hitting than standing.

It's just like with a 16 vs 10. In a US game (dealer peeks so we know the other card isn't an ace), the probability the dealer will beat you with the next card is 7/13. The probability you will bust by hitting is 8/13. Using just this information it would seem better to stand, HOWEVER that doesn't account for the possibility of the dealer pulling a 2 then 8 or another such combination.

[eps6724]

Originally Posted by CasinoKid

EDIT: I do not count cards and for some reason I often assume the next card will be worth 10. Is that also a bad mind frame, assuming the next card will be a 10?

Yes. There are 2/3 more NON 10's in a deck than 10's. WHEN to deviate from BS and when to increase your wager is all about card counting, which will let you know when the balance has changed, and it's easier than most people think, if you're willing to work at it.

My suggestion for books is 2-Rezney's "Blackjack Bluebook II" (VERY simple to read, and a good strong simple counting method) and Snyder's "Blackbelt in Blackjack", and I would personally recommend them in that order, but that's my opinion.

Luck!
-EPS

[CasinoKid]

I guess it has been sheer luck that I have come up on top so far, my games haven't lasted that long because I only start with very little playing money. There are more non 10s than 10s now that I look at it, but it just seems like whenever you have 12 the next card WILL be a 10

I have been making some bad assumptions about the game, I can see.

So it doesn't matter at all if you are playing last base (or the last player before the dealers turn)?

And I understand that you can use basic strategy when you can't count cards, but even if you follow the strategy exactly the house will still have a slight edge. So to win with the basic strategy how does a player know when to vary his bets or when to deviate from the strategy? Or is it up to the player to decide when to bet more or less (because if you bet the same every time, you will lose I should think).

Cheers

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by CasinoKid

So it doesn't matter at all if you are playing last base (or the last player before the dealers turn)?

Not unless you can see the next card in the shoe. Otherwise it doesn’t matter at all.

Originally Posted by CasinoKid

So to win with the basic strategy how does a player know when to vary his bets or when to deviate from the strategy?

You don’t. Basic strategy doesn’t tell you anything about how to change your bets. It only tells you how to play your hands. If you want to know how to bet and when to change your playing then you will need to learn more, like card counting.

-Sonny-

[CasinoKid]

Originally Posted by Sonny

Not unless you can see the next card in the shoe. Otherwise it doesn’t matter at all.

you will need to learn more, like card counting.

-Sonny-

Damn, I felt for sure I was onto something brilliant by letting the dealer have cards

I guess it has to be counting. And now that I think about it, it doesn't take long for a 6 deck to need reshuffling, so practice would be easy.

One more question before I am all out of newbie questions. No, three questions. Wait, 2 actually.

At my casino the players have to put that black card in to split all of the cards before it goes into the shoe. Does that effect counting in a big way?

And what is a "ploppy"? My best guess is that it is someone that just 'plops' themselves at any old table just to play, with no strategy or plan in mind