Free Idea

Hello all.

I decided to let this idea go to you all. I usually keep my strategies to myself. But this is just an idea that may or may not work so try it out. I haven't tested it. I may use it to enhance my winning strategies.

When you go to the casino and play say 6 hours at the table minimum, and you leave down money, next time you go to the casino, play 6 hours again but double your bet. Keep doubling your bets like this until you have a winning session. Then start out at the table minimum again.

Card counting is silly and I don't recommend it because it is just a money grab for people who write books, as well as the fact that it will get you kicked out of the casino sooner or later. But if you do count cards, using this idea may increase your profits. You will always bet higher when you have a winning session.

Best wishes to all! Licentia.

Double your bets after each loss... WOW, what a concept! zg

??? This is absolutely different!!! Plus you needn't double your bets either, just increase them. From maybe $5 to $6 or whatever. How many losing sessions do you expect in a row? And the idea is not to recoup losses. You are looking at this in far too shallow a manner. From one hand to another it is ridiculous, but from one session to another is much different. Let the card counters mock, let the rest learn to win!

Once your bets become too large a proportion of your bankroll, going broke becomes a certainty. Doubling your base unit after each losing session will eventually run you out of money. It just might take a lot longer than the classic martingale to do so.

If you want to make back a few losing sessions as a counter, just keep playing. You'll catch up eventually. Size your bets based on your bankroll and your advantage. Not your recent results.

Oh my my another progression player :whip: When will this waste of precious internet space ever end?

I am not a progression player. I am well aware that progression systems do not work. My systems are based on mathematics. I use external indicators to determine when to increase and decrease bets. I have 2 systems that work for Blackjack and 1 of them beats Poker games. If anyone would care to test this and not just mock they may just see it is not such a bad idea after all. Up your bets just a little after each losing session like $5 to $6 to $7 or $10 to $12 to $14 or whatever. If you have a system like card counting that beats the house you will win more than you otherwise would by betting more when you have the advantage. Is that not the foundation upon which card counting is built? Bet higher when you have the advantage? The key to this is that once you have the winning session you start at base again.

That pretty much says it all! zg

What you first described is a martingale; i.e., doubling one's bet (in this case, series of bets) based on a losing event. Absent doubling, it is properly called a negative progression. To the card counter, each session is just one part of a single, lifetime-long session. When you increase your bet based on a losing position, you begin a negative progression. Now, ask any of the oldtimers here how easy it is to have multiple consecutive losing sessions. One counter on this forum posted that he was behind for an entire year. I don't know whether every session was negative, but it is a distinct possibility. In addition, just because you raise your bet, say from $5 to $7, doesn't mean that if you win in the $7 session, you will win enough to cancel out the loss from the $5 session. So, this system doesn't even guarantee a winner when it works out in your favor. All this is not to mention, as Ken pointed out, the havoc this can play on your RoR. There is simply no reason to abandon (or add to) the mathematically sound techniques already used by APs to reduce their risk of ruin and ensure long-term profits (i.e., Kelly betting, minimum BR requirements, etc.), in favor of a negative progression that might even result in loss when it works, and can't help but increase the possibility of total ruin.

Is this real?

Yes you are.

I have made over $20k in the past 2 months doing this "strategy"..not counting, just when have a losing session, use same unit amount for one more session and if lose raise bets and flat bet.....I haven't had a losing session the past 19 times I've gone to the casino...averaging $500-$2000 per session...I know about martingaling and the whole idea about it catching up to me...and I'm not gonna lie I'm scared to death it will....but I told myself if I'm in for half of my profit (which still hasn't happened yet) than I'll quit and still be ahead over $10k...This has been working for me so far and I'm REALLY surprised. Also if I accumilate $10k more this month I promised myself to become a STRICT counter and never be at a disadvantage again for blackjack. Just thought I would share my really good lucky streak, that will hopefully end well.

And I'm sure Doyle Brunson wrote super system because he wasn't making enough money playing poker...

Your system is based on next to no math, no odds... It looks to me like a half-assed progression system. If you are a playing basic strategy you are still at a disadvantage, and doubling your bet for the next session will just add to your losses.. You might get lucky but overall you will walk away a loser.

It's like the martingdale system where you find yourself betting hundreds of dollars for a measly profit of a few dollars.

Card counting combined with other advanced plays seems to be working for me pretty well. For the past two months I have made more playing blackjack than my wife and I make at our jobs COMBINED... so don't tell me all my practicing and discipline is pure luck.

I want to apologize for my idiotic post. I realized later on Sunday night what a bafoon I had been. I just haven't had time to clear the air since then.

I was using what I term "Internal Indicators" to instruct me when to increase and decrease bets. Instead of wins and loses it was winning sessions and losing sessions. Increasing bets with Internal Indicators will always work out to the house edge. It is what is known as a Progression System.

In order to beat the house "External Indicators" must be used. Card Counting is an external indicator. Whether you just lost 10 hands in a row or won 5 in a row is irrelevant because the count will tell you at that time to increase your bets or decrease them.

I have discovered 2 other "External Indicators" that instruct me when to increase and decrease my bets apart from wins and loses. They are both simpler and more effective than Card Counting. I am telling you all that you can beat BlackJack without card counting. There are other ways that exist. I am not going to reveal this now however as that would put me out of business. But I will reveal it in time. And I will post it in this forum when I do.

Sorry again for the bother! Licentia.

Actually, I am not. I just goofed. But I could easily show you how to make my idea win. But not at this time.

Licentia.

Trust me, we know that better than anybody. In fact, most of us use other methods as well as card counting:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=21994#post21994

Be sure to read the whole thread for more ideas.

-Sonny-

Licentia wrote:

Card counting is silly and I don't recommend it because it is just a money grab for people who write books, as well as the fact that it will get you kicked out of the casino sooner or later.

It's hard to take Licentia's claim seriously after this remark.

And why the tease? -- I have a way of winning at BJ, but I'm not going to tell you.

Licentia,
I don't post much here usually just a lurker.
I will tell you why you are met with such disbelief/confrontation.
Many on here as well as tons of other expects in the fieldhave tried so many different ways to improve card counting as well as exhausted almost every area imaginable to try and beat blackjack. To this day only card counting has shown any results and very minor ones at that, changing a slight negative advantage into a slight positive one which still does not guarantee winning every time.

Now you have come on here and said that you have found a better way to beat blackjack, it does not involve counting, is easier than counting and wins more conistently.... but i'm not going to tell you how i do it.

I'm not going to lie if i found some super secret way to clean up in blackjack i'm probably not going to post it on an internet forum, i would probably be greedy and keep it to myself. I also am not going to come on here and tell everyone that i cracked the code, am bragging about it and may or may not tell you about it. I believe you said you will reveal it soon.

If you want our opinions on a system/strategy just tell us what it is.

lastly, when posts like this arrise 1 of 2 things usually happens:
OP never returns to give the details of their system for one reason or another(possibly they figured out it won't work) or 2 they are just trying to stir the pot and eventually sell a useless system of some sort.


/end rant

Cliff Notes: if you have a system you want to share just share it. Don't come preaching about some great system that you don't want to share.

I started posting on here because I was sick of hearing all the progression players being mocked mercilessly by card counters. I have read posts where different systems are presented and are instantly mocked by card counters without them ever trying the strategy to know. A website was posted where someone had a strategy for sale. A card counter automatically mocked and said it's a waste of money because the strategy won't work! Without ever trying it!

It is that kind of arrogance that frustrates me!

I wanted to show that there are ways based on increasing and decreasing bets at the right times that an advantage over the casino can be obtained.

Part of me wants to give my knowledge away. I want to prove that I am not a fool. But I do not do so because it is not wise.

But I am thinking lately of writing a book. It would be the biggest book since Beat The Dealer!

Licentia

Fun with quotes!

Just wanted to see what these two would look like placed next to each other.

Licentia, one simple fact proves you wrong:
Casinos actively try to detect card counters and will kick them out if needed because the casino staff knows they are losing money. However, not once has someone been kicked out for "raising their bet at the right time" or any progression based betting. Take a second to think: Why?

It's because card counting is the only way to gain an advantage. Do you honestly think your idea is special and has never been thought of before? And casino security staff who watch camera footage of players 24/7 for decades have never picked up on it? They must be losing tons of money to non-counting strategies and not be noticing it.

Ha.

Why do you claim it is "not wise" to tell us your 'brilliant' idea? Especially if you're going to write a book? Any scholar with a brain gets their work proofread before publishing it, don't be afraid of being proved wrong or hearing legitimate feedback.