Political futures: Why Vote When You Can Bet?

[zengrifter]

Why Vote When You Can Bet?
Slate's guide to all the political markets.


The idea behind political prediction markets is simple. Lots of people wager on the outcome of political campaigns: Who's going to be the Democratic presidential nominee? Will the Republicans take back the House? And when the votes are counted, the winning bettors collect. The thrill of prediction markets for political junkies is that they harness "the wisdom of crowds." A single person's bet on an election outcome isn't very good, but thousands of bets, with real stakes, are more likely to predict the correct result than even the best pundit. The Iowa Electronic Markets, the big daddy of the political prediction markets, is consistently better at forecasting winners than pre-election polls. (Read a 2003 Slate "Explainer" about prediction markets here.)

...more = http://specials.slate.com/futures/2008/

[moo321]

The only problem with politics futures is that you have to leave the money with your book for like months or even years.

[zengrifter]

NFLSystms.com: "Ron Paul is the one that has the highest value."[/quote]
Here's the smart-money bet of the year -

"Now is the time for Ron Paul supporters to start banging sites like World Sports Exchange, which still have Paul with +2400 odds for a payout potential of $2400 on every $100 bet when he wins," O'Brien recommends. World Sports Exchange betting odds on Dr. Paul can be found here. "They (WSEX) even have Huckabee ahead of Paul. Ron Paul supporters should be would be outraged and let them have it, even with a $5 bet!"

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Ron Paul Odds Have Been Slashed to 6 to 1: Now Favored Over Romney

Public pushes Ron Paul odds down even further this week

Forget those political polls. Throughout time (at least the last decade), oddsmakers have had an uncanny knack for predicting political races. It's not so much that they have a crystal ball, rather the lines adjust based on public action. When it comes to political betting, the public action is presumed to represent votes. The theory being that someone who is likely to vote on Mitt Romney probably won't bet on Ron Paul winning.

The gambling public seems to believe that 2008 Presidential candidate Ron Paul stands a very good chance of winning, so much so that this past week odds on Dr. Paul have been slashed further from 8 to 1 down to 6 to 1, with the potential payout of $600 for every $100 bet. (see betting odds at Sportsbook.com).

...more - http://www.gambling911.com/Ron-Paul-100107.html