NFL Week 4

Right now I like over 52 for the Patriots at Cincinnati. The Patriots have put up a ton of points, and they don't really seem to slow down with the passing game much later in games. And the Bengals defense is not so good. I also like New England at -7.

Packers -1 At Minnesota. Minnesota's passing game is terrible, and Green Bay has a very good defense. Don't expect Green Bay to get anywhere running, but everyone knows that. Detroit threw all over Minnesota; their defense is strong vs. the run, but not so good vs. the pass.

Basically, green Bay matches up well. They don't run much, so they don't have to worry about Minnesota's run D. Their defense is good enough to stop Minnesota's run, which is basically all Minnesota has had on offense. The only thing that sways this for me is if you see rain or (God forbid) snow.

If you mean the over for NE @ CIN, I agree.

Yeah. That's what I meant...

Moo...

That GB pick is pretty enticing too. They've really put things together (so far) and Minnesota coming off of a loss to KC is pretty demoralizing. The only thing that makes me wonder is now we're getting into division play. -1 seems like a deal to me though.

Seems like a pretty safe pick.

We don't even know who the QB is yet. But you're probably right, it may not matter.

You can relax. This is only a factor if you're driving to the game. Once you get there you'll be inside the Metrodome!

For some odd reason, I got it stuck in my head that they were playing at Lambeau...

I think I like Dallas at home vs. St. Louis -780. The Rams line is depleted, Jackson will probably be out, and their defense is awful. I don't see any way the Rams win here; even if by some fluke they get ahead, they can't run to protect the lead, and Dallas' passing attack will come back. And they're on the road.

I like under 46 in Denver at Indianapolis. Denver has absolutely shut down wide receivers this year, and that's where Indianapolis gets lots of points. Their run defense hasn't been good, but that only means Indianapolis will run all over them. 24-10 type of win. I don't see any way this secondary gives up 4 TD's.

I like the thoughts on the DEN @ IND game. Would you really lay that much on the Cowboys game though?

Absolutely, I'd put a whole unit on it. No reason to be afraid of the long odds; this will be a solid win. I'd probably take it at 1-10 (-1000).

Fair enough. It makes sense.

what do either of those mean? -780? rams have to win by 780 points? haha.. and 1-10? do you mean 1:10 odds? whats the -1000?

With a number like -780, you are picking the team straight up...not against the spread. Since Dallas is the big favorite, you would need to lay $780 to win $100...or $78 to win $10.

Straight bets are based on a bet of $100. A plus means you get that amount for each $100 you bet; if you bet $100 at +200, a win gets you $200. A minus means you must lay that much to win $100; -780 means you must bet $780 to win $100.

Against a spread, you are usually laying -110, or in some cases -105, but you include the spread in your team's total. So I was saying that there is almost no chance Dallas will lose, so you should be willing to risk $780 just to win $100.

i know the rams are injured to all ****, but 8:1 odds? sounds like a bad bet

One of the things you have to realize about sports betting is there are so-called "sharp" and "square" lines. Squares, the general betting public, tend to bet favorites against the spread, overs, and underdogs on the money line.


Which means that "sharps" or smart bettors, will often find value on the unders, underdogs with the spread (ESPECIALLY at home), and favorites on the moneyline. A good bet is a good bet if it's a good line, and we can't be afraid of laying long odds on something that is quite sure to happen. And Dallas is going to win that game, I would guess at least 90% of the time, so I lay 7.8 to 1.

Would you lay me 1000 to 1 odds that I won't be the next president? It's the same principle.

Last second, Lions +120 (moneyline) at home vs. Bears AND over 46. The whole Chicago secondary is out; several defensive lineman are missing, so the pass rush is weaker. Detroit should throw all over these guys, and Chicago's passing offense will look better against a porous Detroit defense. I'm expecting a shootout.

That Indianapolis-Denver game pissed me off. Denver did exactly what I thought they would (mostly shut down the WR's). Denver even came out with 4 DE's to get a better pass rush. Indianapolis did mostly what I thought they would (run a lot). But, I didn't count on Dallas Clark turning into a wide receiver. I also didn't count on Denver scoring as much. BUT, **** happens...

Big 4th quarter for you in that one!

Hehe, no kidding. Did they set a new NFL record? My future bet on the Lions is doing great too.

I'm a Lions fan with the Sunday Ticket...you bet I saw that stuff! :joker: