Query...

[Licentia]

I was testing a strategy tonight. Here are my stats:

Hands - 3641
Won - 1547 42.488%
Lost - 1800 49.436%
Pushed - 295 8.102%

I started with $5000.00. I finished with $5842.50.

Now I am not certain as how to calculate the Standard Deviation yet or if that would even help with this. I need to learn that though. But can anyone tell me if this is possible for a Basic Strategy player to have such stats? Up $842.50 only winning 42.488% of one's hands? I want to know if this strategy works or not without having to test any more hands.

My base bet is $5 and my max bet is $25. Any help would be appreciated.

Licentia.

[aslan]

Originally Posted by Licentia

I was testing a strategy tonight. Here are my stats:

Hands - 3641
Won - 1547 42.488%
Lost - 1800 49.436%
Pushed - 295 8.102%

I started with $5000.00. I finished with $5842.50.

Now I am not certain as how to calculate the Standard Deviation yet or if that would even help with this. I need to learn that though. But can anyone tell me if this is possible for a Basic Strategy player to have such stats? Up $842.50 only winning 42.488% of one's hands? I want to know if this strategy works or not without having to test any more hands.

My base bet is $5 and my max bet is $25. Any help would be appreciated.

Licentia.

I'm not an expert, but it's my understanding that BS will win 42% of the hands played. I don't pretend to know the exact number; i.e., it might be 42.488%. But anyway, you're right in the ballpark. Sometimes, you will win, and sometimes you will lose. Overall, playing BS alone you should end up about 0.5% loser, give or take a little.

My BJ buddy is a BS player. He wins nearly as much as I do counting. He relys on BS and gut instincts (luck?) to determine the amount of his bets. He successfully employs the gambler's fallacy, "I'm due to win this one." But you can't argue with success. Me? Show me the math. Feeling the flow is something I tried before I found a statistical edge. I don't think I'll be turning back at this stage.

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

Originally Posted by aslan

I'm not an expert, but it's my understanding that BS will win 42% of the hands played. I don't pretend to know the exact number; i.e., it might be 42.488%. But anyway, you're right in the ballpark. Sometimes, you will win, and sometimes you will lose. Overall, playing BS alone you should end up about 0.5% loser, give or take a little.

My BJ buddy is a BS player. He wins nearly as much as I do counting. He relys on BS and gut instincts (luck?) to determine the amount of his bets. He successfully employs the gambler's fallacy, "I'm due to win this one." But you can't argue with success. Me? Show me the math. Feeling the flow is something I tried before I found a statistical edge. I don't think I'll be turning back at this stage.

Relying purely upon luck is a fool's idea. However I do believe that positive thinking is a resource. So I generally wait for a good feeling about when to go out to the casino. This may not have anything to do with metaphysics or luck. Just means I've made up my mind to think positive and expect success.

Under those circumstances I'm more likely to stay patient and win in the long run.

[shadroch]

If most of your losses were on $5 hands,and the majority of your wins were on $25 hands,its quite possible to get results like you did. But its just as possible that the next time you play,the situation will be completely reversed.
Go back and refigure your percentages,but this time ignore pushs.You won 1547 hands out of 3347.Thats a much higher win rate,but its still pretty meaningless.

[Sonny]

The standard deviation for a flat betting BS player is about 1.16 units per hand. That gives us a SD of 1.16 * Sqrt(3641) = 70 units for 3641 hands. At $5 per hand we get a range of:

-$441 to +$259 about 68% of the time
-$791 to +$609 about 95% of the time
-$1,141 to +$959 about 99.7% of the time

Since your average bet is higher than $5 your results will be a little above those numbers. But even for a $5 flat betting player your results are just over the 95% range. I don’t know what kind of bet spread you were using but I would assume that it would bring your results down to much less than the 95% range, which is completely normal.

Unfortunately, those results really don’t tell us much. It would take well over 500,000 hands to really determine anything.

-Sonny-

[InPlay]

Originally Posted by Sonny

The standard deviation for a flat betting BS player is about 1.16 units per hand. That gives us a SD of 1.16 * Sqrt(3641) = 70 units for 3641 hands. At $5 per hand we get a range of:

-$441 to +$259 about 68% of the time
-$791 to +$609 about 95% of the time
-$1,141 to +$959 about 99.7% of the time

Since your average bet is higher than $5 your results will be a little above those numbers. But even for a $5 flat betting player your results are just over the 95% range. I don’t know what kind of bet spread you were using but I would assume that it would bring your results down to much less than the 95% range, which is completely normal.

Unfortunately, those results really don’t tell us much. It would take well over 500,000 hands to really determine anything.

-Sonny-

How long will it take you to play 500,000 hands ? Playing a six deck shoe with 2 people at the table playing 3 x a week 6 hours a day ? Can I get there before I die ? I am 45 years old.

[EmeraldCityBJ]

Originally Posted by InPlay

How long will it take you to play 500,000 hands ? Playing a six deck shoe with 2 people at the table playing 3 x a week 6 hours a day ? Can I get there before I die ? I am 45 years old.

For the conditions you described, playing 100 hands per hour would be a reasonable estimate. At this rate with the numbers you provided, you'd play 600 hands in a day, or 1800 hands in a week, or 93,600 hands per year. Playing 500,000 hands would take somewhere from 5 to 5.5 years.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by InPlay

How long will it take you to play 500,000 hands ?

If you play on a computer (either online or using software) you can get 200-300 hands per hour. Better yet, a good simulator can do it in 10 minutes.

-Sonny-

[aslan]

Originally Posted by InPlay

How long will it take you to play 500,000 hands ? Playing a six deck shoe with 2 people at the table playing 3 x a week 6 hours a day ? Can I get there before I die ? I am 45 years old.

You'll have to form a team of players who play just like you. I wouldn't bet my life savings though. If you get 20 hands per shoe you'll only have to play 25,000 shoes. A team of five players can each take 5,000 shoes. Say you play 25 shoes a day, you only have to play 200 days. Heck not even a year. Go for it! And let us know what happens.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by Licentia

I was testing a strategy tonight. Here are my stats:

Hands - 3641
Won - 1547 42.488%
Lost - 1800 49.436%
Pushed - 295 8.102%

By hands, do you mean total dealer upcards or do you count splits as 2 hands? Do you count a W/L on a split as one push or 1 win and 1 loss?

Also we'd need how many hands were doubles and your W/L/T results of same.

Total actually wagered would be nice too to get avg bet/hand.

Assume these stats are manual (since they don't add up lol) and, if so, I give you even more credit for manually tracking results like this

And we'd also need the HA!

But, then, with all that, we'd be cooking with gas