Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com

  #11  
Old October 5th, 2007, 09:50 PM
Mr. T Mr. T is offline
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Default I agree with Sony on this one

You cannot look at 1 result or a batch of results and draw your conclusions.
Where I play everybody takes even money on BJ and stand 16 vs 7. When I lose this one the others will say they are right. Even money on BJ the house has a 3.8% advantage and you connot see the diference in play. In the same way hitting 16 vs 7 is not even a close call but everybody on the table would piss me off for doing that. You can see these differences only on zillions of computer sims.
I know what my house advantage is where I play and I swear by this. So I don't pay any attention to 1 results or even session results which could be very high losses or win and get sad or happy about it. I know that with the house advantage my losses at X rounds per hour, Y$ bet will be Z$. The Comps and the entertanment valve should outweigh this.
But I try to tell this to others an nobody would pay any attention to me.
  #12  
Old October 6th, 2007, 12:21 AM
Preston Preston is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SilentBob420BMFJ View Post

83% win rate? you mean session win rate? also, i sure as hell hope your counting and spreading nicely, because if not, im jealous! (of results, not approach, if u are indeed a bs player only)
I've had a couple sessions since but yes I'm talking about winners versus losers. I consider a win to be $25 or more. Anything less counts as a break-even. I use the $25 rule going the other way. My win last night was $600. I had a BEAUTIFUL $1500 shoe (took a while to get to those blackjacks but when they came they CAME!!) $600 for two hours of work. I'll take it.

I am counting. Spreading. Playing off the top of shoes and wonging out at necessary points. I use mentor count with appropriate indexes.. occasionally I'll break from index play on intuition.. or because I'm holecarding :-).
  #13  
Old October 6th, 2007, 10:36 PM
Kasi Kasi is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. T View Post
You cannot look at 1 result or a batch of results and draw your conclusions.
I know what you're saying but I don't see why not.

Like with Sonny's original numbers, after only 10000 hands, you would not draw a conclusion that the game must be fixed? Kind of thing.

Nothing to lose by figuring it out periodically and see what's up. That's all.

And, while even money with a BJ may have a 3.8% disadvantge, that's not what it costs you in HA even if you took even money everytime you got a BJ.
Which maybe explains why the effect is barely noticeable.
  #14  
Old October 8th, 2007, 08:57 PM
SilentBob420BMFJ SilentBob420BMFJ is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. T View Post
You cannot look at 1 result or a batch of results and draw your conclusions.
Where I play everybody takes even money on BJ and stand 16 vs 7. When I lose this one the others will say they are right. Even money on BJ the house has a 3.8% advantage and you connot see the diference in play. In the same way hitting 16 vs 7 is not even a close call but everybody on the table would piss me off for doing that. You can see these differences only on zillions of computer sims.
I know what my house advantage is where I play and I swear by this. So I don't pay any attention to 1 results or even session results which could be very high losses or win and get sad or happy about it. I know that with the house advantage my losses at X rounds per hour, Y$ bet will be Z$. The Comps and the entertanment valve should outweigh this.
But I try to tell this to others an nobody would pay any attention to me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasi View Post
I know what you're saying but I don't see why not.

Like with Sonny's original numbers, after only 10000 hands, you would not draw a conclusion that the game must be fixed? Kind of thing.

Nothing to lose by figuring it out periodically and see what's up. That's all.

And, while even money with a BJ may have a 3.8% disadvantge, that's not what it costs you in HA even if you took even money everytime you got a BJ.
Which maybe explains why the effect is barely noticeable.
is that 3.8% with DD? because i know its about 7% for 8D, because even money and insurance are the same thing
  #15  
Old October 9th, 2007, 01:10 AM
Kasi Kasi is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SilentBob420BMFJ View Post
is that 3.8% with DD? because i know its about 7% for 8D, because even money and insurance are the same thing
By even money I mean only those cases when a player has a BJ.

If a player has a 4,2 vs a dealer Ace, he may still take insurance but it is no longer "even money".

7% is way too high, even for 8 decks, assuming you mean your disadvantage when you are dealt a 2-card hand vs dealer Ace.
  #16  
Old October 13th, 2007, 02:53 PM
SilentBob420BMFJ SilentBob420BMFJ is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasi View Post
By even money I mean only those cases when a player has a BJ.

If a player has a 4,2 vs a dealer Ace, he may still take insurance but it is no longer "even money".

7% is way too high, even for 8 decks, assuming you mean your disadvantage when you are dealt a 2-card hand vs dealer Ace.
its actually 7.x% for 8 decks, and i could prove it but i dont feel like thinking right now, but its quite well known.. im talking about the house advantage for insurance.. i wasnt aware the house advantage changed when you are talking about even money, because even money and insurance are the same thing, so wouldnt they have the same house edge?
  #17  
Old October 15th, 2007, 01:28 AM
Kasi Kasi is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SilentBob420BMFJ View Post
its actually 7.x% for 8 decks, and i could prove it but i dont feel like thinking right now, but its quite well known.. im talking about the house advantage for insurance.. i wasnt aware the house advantage changed when you are talking about even money, because even money and insurance are the same thing, so wouldnt they have the same house edge?
'

I see where ur coming from.

Where I'm coming from is that, that average 7.x% HA on insurance you talk about is applied to only a half-bet 1/13 of the time.

So, the expected loss from always taking insurance, or, in other words, the amount by which the HA would increase, is more like 1/13*.074*.5.

It's quite well-known, should you ever choose to think about it at another time than now.
  #18  
Old October 15th, 2007, 04:13 PM
SilentBob420BMFJ SilentBob420BMFJ is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasi View Post
'

I see where ur coming from.

Where I'm coming from is that, that average 7.x% HA on insurance you talk about is applied to only a half-bet 1/13 of the time.

So, the expected loss from always taking insurance, or, in other words, the amount by which the HA would increase, is more like 1/13*.074*.5.

It's quite well-known, should you ever choose to think about it at another time than now.
the bottom line is, if you did a sim of taking insurance in 8 decks, you would lose 7-8% of your money.. when i say house edge, im not talking about THE house edge, im talking about the house edge on insurance only.. i let people know that taking insurance is 14x worse than the entire game of blackjack itself (of course, not for them, who are playing at like a 4% house edge probably)

Last edited by SilentBob420BMFJ; October 15th, 2007 at 04:16 PM.
 

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