End profit is not the answer!

[Mr. T]

You cannot look at 1 result or a batch of results and draw your conclusions.
Where I play everybody takes even money on BJ and stand 16 vs 7. When I lose this one the others will say they are right. Even money on BJ the house has a 3.8% advantage and you connot see the diference in play. In the same way hitting 16 vs 7 is not even a close call but everybody on the table would piss me off for doing that. You can see these differences only on zillions of computer sims.
I know what my house advantage is where I play and I swear by this. So I don't pay any attention to 1 results or even session results which could be very high losses or win and get sad or happy about it. I know that with the house advantage my losses at X rounds per hour, Y$ bet will be Z$. The Comps and the entertanment valve should outweigh this.
But I try to tell this to others an nobody would pay any attention to me.

[Preston]

Originally Posted by SilentBob420BMFJ

83% win rate? you mean session win rate? also, i sure as hell hope your counting and spreading nicely, because if not, im jealous! (of results, not approach, if u are indeed a bs player only)

I've had a couple sessions since but yes I'm talking about winners versus losers. I consider a win to be $25 or more. Anything less counts as a break-even. I use the $25 rule going the other way. My win last night was $600. I had a BEAUTIFUL $1500 shoe (took a while to get to those blackjacks but when they came they CAME!!) $600 for two hours of work. I'll take it.

I am counting. Spreading. Playing off the top of shoes and wonging out at necessary points. I use mentor count with appropriate indexes.. occasionally I'll break from index play on intuition.. or because I'm holecarding :-).

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by Mr. T

You cannot look at 1 result or a batch of results and draw your conclusions.

I know what you're saying but I don't see why not.

Like with Sonny's original numbers, after only 10000 hands, you would not draw a conclusion that the game must be fixed? Kind of thing.

Nothing to lose by figuring it out periodically and see what's up. That's all.

And, while even money with a BJ may have a 3.8% disadvantge, that's not what it costs you in HA even if you took even money everytime you got a BJ.
Which maybe explains why the effect is barely noticeable.

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Originally Posted by Mr. T

You cannot look at 1 result or a batch of results and draw your conclusions.
Where I play everybody takes even money on BJ and stand 16 vs 7. When I lose this one the others will say they are right. Even money on BJ the house has a 3.8% advantage and you connot see the diference in play. In the same way hitting 16 vs 7 is not even a close call but everybody on the table would piss me off for doing that. You can see these differences only on zillions of computer sims.
I know what my house advantage is where I play and I swear by this. So I don't pay any attention to 1 results or even session results which could be very high losses or win and get sad or happy about it. I know that with the house advantage my losses at X rounds per hour, Y$ bet will be Z$. The Comps and the entertanment valve should outweigh this.
But I try to tell this to others an nobody would pay any attention to me.

Originally Posted by Kasi

I know what you're saying but I don't see why not.

Like with Sonny's original numbers, after only 10000 hands, you would not draw a conclusion that the game must be fixed? Kind of thing.

Nothing to lose by figuring it out periodically and see what's up. That's all.

And, while even money with a BJ may have a 3.8% disadvantge, that's not what it costs you in HA even if you took even money everytime you got a BJ.
Which maybe explains why the effect is barely noticeable.

is that 3.8% with DD? because i know its about 7% for 8D, because even money and insurance are the same thing

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by SilentBob420BMFJ

is that 3.8% with DD? because i know its about 7% for 8D, because even money and insurance are the same thing

By even money I mean only those cases when a player has a BJ.

If a player has a 4,2 vs a dealer Ace, he may still take insurance but it is no longer "even money".

7% is way too high, even for 8 decks, assuming you mean your disadvantage when you are dealt a 2-card hand vs dealer Ace.

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Originally Posted by Kasi

By even money I mean only those cases when a player has a BJ.

If a player has a 4,2 vs a dealer Ace, he may still take insurance but it is no longer "even money".

7% is way too high, even for 8 decks, assuming you mean your disadvantage when you are dealt a 2-card hand vs dealer Ace.

its actually 7.x% for 8 decks, and i could prove it but i dont feel like thinking right now, but its quite well known.. im talking about the house advantage for insurance.. i wasnt aware the house advantage changed when you are talking about even money, because even money and insurance are the same thing, so wouldnt they have the same house edge?

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by SilentBob420BMFJ

its actually 7.x% for 8 decks, and i could prove it but i dont feel like thinking right now, but its quite well known.. im talking about the house advantage for insurance.. i wasnt aware the house advantage changed when you are talking about even money, because even money and insurance are the same thing, so wouldnt they have the same house edge?

'

I see where ur coming from.

Where I'm coming from is that, that average 7.x% HA on insurance you talk about is applied to only a half-bet 1/13 of the time.

So, the expected loss from always taking insurance, or, in other words, the amount by which the HA would increase, is more like 1/13*.074*.5.

It's quite well-known, should you ever choose to think about it at another time than now.

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Originally Posted by Kasi

'

I see where ur coming from.

Where I'm coming from is that, that average 7.x% HA on insurance you talk about is applied to only a half-bet 1/13 of the time.

So, the expected loss from always taking insurance, or, in other words, the amount by which the HA would increase, is more like 1/13*.074*.5.

It's quite well-known, should you ever choose to think about it at another time than now.

the bottom line is, if you did a sim of taking insurance in 8 decks, you would lose 7-8% of your money.. when i say house edge, im not talking about THE house edge, im talking about the house edge on insurance only.. i let people know that taking insurance is 14x worse than the entire game of blackjack itself (of course, not for them, who are playing at like a 4% house edge probably)