Licentia's System

I just booted up Hoyle and played. It took about 20 minutes. I went down as low as $4775 from the $5000 I started with. Now by following my strategy I am at $5032.50.

Now $5032.50 is my new bankroll total. Since I made my money back I am now starting again at $5 bets. My bets never rose to more than $20 to win back my money and make that $32.50 profit. I will now continue play...

Dealer just got to BJs in a row. My bets are still at base... I got a BJ now. Bets up to $10. My bankroll is currently $4995.00. Dealer just got a BJ. My bets back down to $5. Bankroll currently at $4970.00. Just got a BJ. Bankroll at $4972.50. Bets now at $10. Dealer got BJ. My bet now at $5, BR = $4972.50.
-BJ for Dealer, BR = 4967.50, Bet = $5.
-BJ for Dealer, BR = 4972.50, Bet = $5.
-BJ for me, BR = 4985.00, Bet = $10.
-BJ for me, BR = 4980.00, Bet = $15.
-BJ for Dealer, BR = 5040.00, Bet = $10. (I have already won my money back)
-BJ for Dealer, BR = 5050.00, Bet = $5. (I will keep going until I get a winning BJ)
-BJ for Dealer, BR = 5035.00, Bet = $5.
-BJ for Dealer, BR = 5005.00, Bet = $5.
-BJ for me, BR = 5017.50, Bet = $10.
-BJ for me, BR = 5012.50, Bet = $15.
-BJ for Dealer, BR = 4982.50, Bet = $10.
-BJ for Dealer, BR = 5022.50, Bet = $5.
-BJ for me, BR = 4990.00, Bet = $10.
-BJ for Dealer, BR = 4970.00, Bet = $5.
-BJ for me, BR = 4977.50, Bet = $10.
-BJ for me, BR = 4942.50, Bet = $15.
-BJ for Dealer, BR = 5032.50, Bet = $10.
-BJ for Dealer, BR = 5022.50, Bet = $5.
Taking a long time...
-BJ for Dealer, BR = 5007.50, Bet = $5.
-BJ for me, BR = 5015.00, Bet = $10.
-BJ for me, BR = 5090.00, Bet = $5 because I got my money back with a BJ.

Licentia.

Bj push

What do you do when you are down, you are betting $5, and you and the dealer both get Bj?

Here just for stupid fun and to show that I do understand what a progression system is and that my system is not a progression system, I will create a progression system.

Here we go: "Licentia's pointless waste of time progression system"

Increase your bet by one unit everytime after you have a successful Double Down. Decrease your bet by one unit everytime after you have a failed Double Down. If your Double Down fails 4 times in a row then go to a new table. LOL.

There we go. The above is a 100% genuine progression system that will lose according to the house edge.

I don't even have to test it and I know it will fail.

Licentia.

I do appreciate that you are at least testing this..

Well that's a start, but so is your system. Your 'external' indicator has nothing what-so-ever to do with future results in the game so will not help you in making game related decisions. You'd be as well decided whether to up your bet or not on what colour of cloths the person sitting on your right is wearing. Therefore the only thing that actually affects your bet is the occurance of blackjacks on either side of the table. Upping when you have one, lowering when the dealer has one. Simply a progression based on information that is non-relevant.

RJT.

My "External Indicator" drops my bets to base everytime before the hot streak ends and before the losing streak begins, so that everytime I enter a losing streak my bets are low.

I said this before. If not for recouperating my bankroll and dropping my bets to base, I would enter every losing streak with my bets high and would lose according to the house edge while I wait for Dealer BJs to slowly push my bet down.

Well?

I tested several days ago on the other thread. My results where horendous. It did not work for me! But one time, I pushed, with a Bj. What does your system do under that scenario?

How can I test 100,000 hands and have it not fail and you test once and the results are terrible?

Please go to this thread and ensure you are following my instructions exactly. Your questioned is answered here as well:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=8018

How many of those 100,000 hands were live in a casino?

I played for about 3 weeks at 10 hours per day avg.

21 x 10 x 60 = 12,600

The last thread was deleted before you had a chance to respond:

I understand the frustration.

I bought a course teaching basic Hi-Lo counting and decided it was too tough and not worth the effort.

I got a book called "Win Without Counting" and starting playing - I won 6 sessions in a row! Then I won 10 out 12 sessions - in just a couple of weeks I turned $200 into $2000. I thought I was hot sh*t! I made plans on how to quit my job and start my new life.

I went to Atlantic city with my new BR and a big dream - I won a couple sessions and then I could not win anything at all! I followed the indicators exactly, I went to casino after casino and this unbeatable system was now not working at all!

I was confounded as to why playing this system sometimes worked with computer games, but always won in the casino, well now it didn't even work there and I lost a lot of money.

I experimented with many many systems and methods - Dahl, Silverthorne, Sailu, positive, negative, combo progressions, and tried tweaking each one, with CVBJ and also in casinos.

My most sucessfull run was with this method: Bet 1 unit until one of the following happens: 1) I lose 4 in row or 2) I bust twice in row or 3) dealer gets 21 in any form, and then bet 3 and then 6 units. Playing like this over 6 months, I worked up to over $7000 in some 40 casino visits.

Anyone who has put his heart, soul, commitment and hard-earned money into researching and developing a new methodology and has applied it to make money simply cannot be dissuaded.

In my case, I would have been deeply offended and insulted if anyone had doubted me - how dare could you have the audacity to question my results when I turned a couple hundred into $7000 in less than 6 months! I had proof! I had repeatable results! I had CASH!

Well, guess what - my system stopped working. I refused to believe that the universe could be so cruel as to let me win all this money and then it did not work any more. I kept playing. I kept trying. The bankroll dwidled away.

I learned Hi-Lo and I am now studying AOII and Ace Prediction.

I still yearn for the quick and easy method although my yeanings are dwindling.

You must buy CVBJ from Qfit. Anyone who is serious about BJ uses this or is familiar with it - you can select any number of decks, players, burn cards, count distribution, DAS, RSA, H17, penetration,etc. It can made made to mimic actual casino conditions more accurately than anything else. There simply is no comparison to Hoyle.

I played with your system on CVBJ til 4:30 in the morning last night. I marched from a starting BR of $1000 and gave up at minus $400, losing a total of $1400 over 1997 hands! I have the actual playing logs that CVBJ keeps, as well as specific graphs and analysis of win rates, hand counts, streaks, etc, if anyone would like to see them. Another fantastic feature of CVBJ.

I would not invest any money in a casino with any method that was not consistently repeatable through thousands of hands played in CVBJ.

My last system tweaking - practicing on CVBJ I was able to win over 30 sessions in a row! Then it just stopped working.

Look at the charts of team player income by quarter in Blackjack Attack 3 - there are ups and downs - wins and losses - but over many sessions highly profitable.

Please practice on CVBJ, and have others do the same - if my results are just a fluke, well maybe I am the one guy on earth who cannot make your system work.

By the way, you can still be a successfull bookseller with a faulty system - Win without Counting and Dahls book are still available at bookstores today - again many methods can be applied and used to show a handsome profit, but because BJ is a negative expectation game, the hard cold statistics will eventually catch up you - that's why card counting, shuffle tracking and Ace prediction work - because they provide reliable indication of what is coming next - whether that information is general (the count, or the segment) or specific (which card is coming next).

I'm just a guy who has won and lost a lot of money and is still learning. There are many seasoned vets here (like Sonny) whose patiently communicated advise would be well heeded.

PS: Continuing to play with your system: #bets: 2281 Won%: 41.82% Lost %: 49.45% Tied%: 8.72% $Bet: $39,725 $Won/Lost: -$2760
Win Rate: -6.95%

Thanks for your response Jimmtech. Please review my instructional thread here:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=8018

Is this CVBJ program free to try?

I am downloading it now. I will try it when I can.

Also Jimmtech, are you playing the strategy or are you sim-ing it?

Licentia.

No, this was me playing it -

the CVBJ demo can be downloaded here:

http://www.qfit.com/downloads.htm

however, the fives are removed from the demo, so for real testing and practice, you'd have to get the full version - however you can see all the options that you can set and the statistics that can be kept, compiled, and analyzed - it is really amazing.

Also, the creator Norm W. is easily accessible and very helpfull!

I have practiced with CVBJ for several years, and it is the best BJ investment I have ever made - it has been more valuable than another other BJ book (except Blackjack Attack 3 by Donald Schlesinger).

Good Luck !

Where?

Well, let’s take it one step further. How about this:

Increase your bet every time you win a double down. Drop back to 1 unit every time you lose a double down.

Would you agree that we are still dealing with a progression system? I mean, your bets are progressing every time you win a double down, right? And since they are based on wins/losses and not your actual advantage it cannot possible give you advantage, right?

-Sonny-

Reread what RJT just said again:

Your “external indicator” does not work. Your system does not predict any streaks so it cannot tell you when to drop your bets or raise your bets. You are betting based on random events that do not correlate to any advantage. Essentially, you are still betting randomly. Once you understand that, you will see where the flaws in your system are. They are the same flaws inherent with any progression system. Again I encourage you to read the articles at the top of this forum as well as the responses that you have received from other members. It is very easy to see the errors in your logic. I think you are a little to focused on the results to see the big picture. If you stop and think about your system you will begin to see the imperfections that will cause it’s ultimate failure.

-Sonny-

I also tested it on CVBJ following the instructions listed in the other thread. I slowly and painfully lost my bank roll in about an hour.

The system is just random betting because the predictors you use really have nothing to do with... well anything. None of them have to do with if the next hand is more advantageous to you or the house, rather just random guessing... The reason card counting works is because shoes can become favorable to the player/dealer depending on what cards are left. This system doesn't work because past black jacks and wins/losses have no effect on the next hand. I think it might be helpful if you took a statistics class...

Both of these have small effects on the next hand. The only problem is his system completely misuses the effects.

First of all, getting a blackjack on one hand decreases your odds of getting one on the next, yet you increase your bet after getting one. As far as the count goes, it also goes down after getting a blackjack.

Next, winning and losing does have a tiny effect on your next hand. When you lose the hand your odds of winning the next one increase ever so slightly. This is in the long run, there are certainly exceptions to this one. On the other hand, in the long run, when you win a hand you are ever so slightly more likely to lose the next hand.

So his system abuses both of these "indicators". You'd be better off doing the opposite. His system has you increasing your bets as the count decreases, while your odds of getting more blackjack decreases, and while your next hand has a better chance of losing. Granted, the effects of these are not that large, but they do have an effect. It's just that his system uses them to make them a negative effect, instead of a positive one.