NFL week 7

[moo321]

Dallas vs. Minnesota, -425 moneyline, or -9.5. Minnesota's secondary has been awful, Dallas will pass all over them. Minnesota also cannot pass. Peterson is great, but you won't beat Dallas on the road with a one-dimensional offense.

Colts -3 at Jacksonville. Yes, Jacksonville has tended to play the Colts well. But, a lot of their success was with running the ball when the Colts didn't have Sanders around. Their run defense is better this year, and their offense looks very strong. I think the sharp money has moved this line too far towards Jacksonville. I think a correct line would be more like 5 1/2 or 6.

Seahawks vs. Rams, -380 moneyline. For the Rams, both tackles and the center are out, and one of the tackles is the 3rd string. Bulger, Bruce, and Jackson are coming off of injuries, and Jackson is "an outside chance" to play. And we know their defense is terrible.

[moo321]

Last minute update: the line moved on the Pats at the Dolphins. I like the Pats at -15.5 for a small bet. Yes, the Dolphins usually play them tough, but the Patriots are better than they have been before, and the Dolphins are worse.

[toastblows]

Originally Posted by moo321

Last minute update: the line moved on the Pats at the Dolphins. I like the Pats at -15.5 for a small bet. Yes, the Dolphins usually play them tough, but the Patriots are better than they have been before, and the Dolphins are worse.

I think you just need to bet Big and bet Pats from here on out

[moo321]

Yeah. I think you're totally right. Normally I would categorically say you shouldn't ever lay 17 points for an NFL team on the road, certainly not against a team that has a strong history against your team. But the Patriots are honestly better than any team I've seen in the salary cap era. The 16-0 talk is for real, and I think I'd be willing to lay at least 13 for any team besides the Colts.

[toastblows]

They are going to have a couple bumpy weeks here....im thinking where the spreads will be rediculous compared to actual game score (wins though), but man, after Indy on the 4th, that is a steamroller schedule.

Yahoo Odds says O/U is 50 on that redskins/pats.....anyone taking under? (maybe they mean Tom Brady's o/u is 50...)

[aslan]

What are the chances for a Redskin upset? [PS--Aslan is a Redskin fan. He sticks with them even when they stink.]

[moo321]

I'd lay the 16.5 points. The game's at home, and the Patriots are ridiculous.

[toastblows]

i would take the over on the Pats/Skins....lets see how i do. Im betting 10K imaginary dollars

[moo321]

Originally Posted by toastblows

i would take the over on the Pats/Skins....lets see how i do. Im betting 10K imaginary dollars

Geeze. over 48 is awesome. I'd definitely take that. The combined average total of both teams is 60.2. I was looking for 52-3, and I'd still like the over. 48 is way off base.

The only reason I can figure is that the bookies like Washington's secondary, and they don't think Washington will be able to pass. But Washingtons secondary is only top 10 or so for me, not a super-elite unit. Another way to look at it is Washington only has to score 8 points (patriots average is 39.9 per game) to push. Probably a time for a correlated 2 bet parlay (over and Patriots) as well. Patriots win any high-scoring game, while the only game Washington could win is a low-scoring game.

At least 2 bets on the over, 3 is probably good. This is the softest line I've seen all season.

[toastblows]

the pats defense isnt steller, although washinton has no passing game. they have some good running if portis is healthy though. Im no expert at all, but if brady is in top shape, i give the pats easily into the 30s by themselves. Brady has too many WR's that are good to not get 4-5 TD's at this point. Unless you are playing a clutch passing Def i guess....im still letting my 10K imaginary bet on the over ride