New link about setting "quit points" and "targets"

[Sonny]

I've added a new link in the sticky thread at the top of this forum. It is a study of how using stop-loss and stop-win limits (aka quit points or targets) affect your results.

http://www.advantageplayer.com/blackjack/index.html

As you can see, a card counter who uses these techniques will be losing a lot of his profit. A basic strategy or progression player, who is already playing at a disadvantage, will not gain any advantage from using these techniques. The only benefit is that they will be playing fewer hands and therefore giving away less money.

-Sonny-

[nightspirit]

The link is only to the main page. If it's a post you must first open the post and then link it.

[Sonny]

Oops, it should be this link:

http://www.advantageplayer.com/black...cgi?read=18995

-Sonny-

[nightspirit]

It's a bit tricky, I realized it a while back. I too was on the search to this study a few weeks ago. Good idea to post it here. Their archive has a wealth of information.

[Guynoire]

The only reason the player with no stop loss won more is because he played more hours. A stop loss limit has no effect on the expected profit per hour, and only changes the results by limiting the number of hours played.

However, if you lose a substantial amount of money you might be steaming and maybe you don't want to play those extra hours.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by Guynoire

The only reason the player with no stop loss won more is because he played more hours.

It's worse than that. For a card counter the effect is much more damaging because you will often be walking away from positive counts. Those are the times when you are most likely to win a lot and hit your “target” or lose a lot and hit your limit. As the graph shows, walking away from even a few positive counts can be very damaging.

-Sonny-

[Mr. T]

Sonny,
I am a BS player using the stop loss and stop win play.
When you gamble there is such a thing as getting lucky or unlucky.
The maths be dammed sometimes as it doesn't capture this. But you will feel better as there is such a thing as a winning or losing streak. Or have you never experience this.
Incidentally in stock investing you hear about stop loss order all the time so you must know when to cut your losses.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by Mr. T

But you will feel better as there is such a thing as a winning or losing streak. Or have you never experience this.

I have experienced times when I lost (or won) several hands in a row. I have also experienced times when my overall win/loss ratio was not average. Is that considered a “streak?” I call that variance, and the maths capture this very well.

I have heard numerous people talk about streaks but nobody seems to have a clear definition of one. And, despite thousands of claims, I have yet to find someone who can accurately predict or control them. I certainly don’t deny that they exist, only that they can be used to one’s advantage.

Originally Posted by Mr. T

Incidentally in stock investing you hear about stop loss order all the time so you must know when to cut your losses.

Stop loss orders happen in the stock market because the rules of the game change. Prices and payouts change, companies change, products change, supply and demand changes, economic conditions change, social climates change, etc. The game of blackjack always stays the same. The rules and payouts that applied to the last hand will still apply to all other hands you will play.

The short-term stock market is more like sports betting. The odds are always changing and they will be different from bookie to bookie. Often times you can find an advantageous situation if you look hard enough or wait long enough. The short-term stock market is dynamic. The long-term stock market, however, is not. If you invest wisely then there is often no benefit to constantly buying/selling. That is where most day traders fail. They rely on “trends” and “indicators” just like gamblers rely on “streaks” or “hunches.” They both use systems that try to correlate unrelated past events with future events.

Now obviously many people could come along and say “Sonny, you’re wrong. I’ve had great success with my system and so have lots of other people.” As I said before, it is possible to win while playing at a disadvantage, you just shouldn’t rely on luck to pay the bills.

-Sonny-

[Guynoire]

Incidentally in stock investing you hear about stop loss order all the time so you must know when to cut your losses.

A stop loss order is one of the worst ways to invest in the stock market. If you buy a stock because you think it is a good buy and undervalued, then when the stock goes down it becomes an even better buy. If you follow buy low sell high then the stock is more attractive and you should buy more if possible.

[Mr. T]

Originally Posted by Sonny

Is that considered a “streak?” I call that variance, and the maths capture this very well.

-Sonny-

Sonny you don't know exactly what is a "streak". Yet you say the maths capture this very well.
Please explain.