I have done well with Basic strategy

[Jdesey]

yes, everyone on this board will tell you that you cannot win with basic strategy alone.. it just is not true. I have only recently moved over to card counting. To tell you the truth, it bores me and is alot of work.

It took me a long time and alot of losses to come out a winner with basic strategy. What I had to learn is to increase my bets on subsequent wins. But NOT doubling or something like that. My max press is 50% of the previous win.

Also, I had to learn to be very sensitive to winning streaks and to take a break when the END. This has been very important. I was always able to be at profit at some point in a session on a table. But I would ALWAYS grind it down to $0 and then usually losses. The key for me were win limits and loss limits and sticking to them.

something else I want to add is that I almost never see anyone at a table playing even close to perfect basic strategy and I almost never see anyone winning! I mean people who really should go get a book or at least a $2 strategy card.

just my two cents worth... good luck

[LeonShuffle]

My advice is to disregard the above post.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by Jdesey

yes, everyone on this board will tell you that you cannot win with basic strategy alone.. it just is not true.

It is certainly true that you might win playing BS alone, but you should not expect to. You might get lucky for a while but you cannot get an advantage using BS alone.

Originally Posted by Jdesey

What I had to learn is to increase my bets on subsequent wins. But NOT doubling or something like that. My max press is 50% of the previous win.

This is just a mild version of a progression system. It suffers from the same problems as all other progression systems. It may work for a while but it will eventually fail. You should not expect to win using this system. Just read the sticky thread at the top of this forum for more information on why progression systems do not work.

Originally Posted by Jdesey

Also, I had to learn to be very sensitive to winning streaks and to take a break when the END.

There is no way to predict winning/losing streaks. Any mistakes you make will cancel out the times that you are right. Betting on perceived "streaks" is just superstitious.

Originally Posted by Jdesey

The key for me were win limits and loss limits and sticking to them.

Actually, I just started a thread a few hours ago that explains why using stop limits and win limits doesn’t work:

New link about setting "quit points" and "targets"


-Sonny-

[aslan]

I usually go to Atlantic City with a friend who plays only basic strategy. He also plays craps and slots. He wins nearly every trip. Still, there is no science to support his play, while there is science to support my play as a counter. I will never go back to playing for luck, which is essentially what he is doing, although he thinks he is a) managing his money, b) betting more when he is "due", c) quitting when the table gets cold, and all the other things you and I used to do in precounting days. I wouldn't go back to that for love or money (oh, well, maybe for money lol). Once you know you know what you're doing, anything less is simply not an option.

[Jdesey]

I did not say this thread would be popular.. and frankly I could care less. This is just my experience, nothing else. Yes, I have won as well playing basic strategy and flat betting. Taking every opportunity to split and double when I can. I have also lost big time with positive progressions. That was when I was crazy enough to press my entire winnings 2 3 4 times or more.

I do believe in streaks, there is no denying that they happen. Look at every casino game there is. Bacarrat and Roulette are great examples. I have seen 13 or more Banker/Player wins in Bacarrat at least 5 times this year. God help you if you were betting against that.

As I said before,,, this is just my experience and my opinion. I will also restate that I ALWAYS am ahead at some point in every session! The key is to take a break and protect those profits.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by Jdesey

I will also restate that I ALWAYS am ahead at some point in every session!

I could probably say the same thing. Maybe I won the first hand then lost the rest, but I was ahead at some point. Unfortunately, “some point” doesn’t really matter. The only thing that matters is “this point.”

Originally Posted by Jdesey

The key is to take a break and protect those profits.

But how does temporarily stopping “protect” your winnings? What’s to stop you from losing them back the next time you play? What makes them safe from future losing sessions?

All those short sessions are going to add up to one big long session in the end. You’re going to end up with the same results as if you just played all of those sessions continuously. Save yourself the hassle and just play it out. The only session that really matters is the BIG one – your lifetime. You can’t expect to be lucky forever.

-Sonny-

[aslan]

Originally Posted by Jdesey

I did not say this thread would be popular.. and frankly I could care less. This is just my experience, nothing else. Yes, I have won as well playing basic strategy and flat betting. Taking every opportunity to split and double when I can. I have also lost big time with positive progressions. That was when I was crazy enough to press my entire winnings 2 3 4 times or more.

I do believe in streaks, there is no denying that they happen. Look at every casino game there is. Bacarrat and Roulette are great examples. I have seen 13 or more Banker/Player wins in Bacarrat at least 5 times this year. God help you if you were betting against that.

As I said before,,, this is just my experience and my opinion. I will also restate that I ALWAYS am ahead at some point in every session! The key is to take a break and protect those profits.

How do you know when a streak is beginning? How do you know when to quit? I don't think there is any logical way to take advantage of these realities. Why do you think you're different? You said in every session you are always up at some point. Saturday I lost $700 in my first session and I was never ahead once. Later I lost $170 and I was never up in that session either. I have won about 35 times out of my last 40 sessions, but it wasn't because I knew when to quit. I just wanted you to know that you are on the road to ruin if you think you will always be up sometime in every session, because what are you going to do if you're not? Lose a bundle? What is your loss stop if you think you must be up at some point or other? If you know when streaks are beginning and when wins are peaking you are not a good card player, you are a fortune teller. Since I have no luck telling the future, I will continue playing the probabilities. If you can teach me to tell the future, I'm all ears.

[Jdesey]

I have thought about the comments you are all making and it is starting to make some sense to me. The main thing I will relate it to is craps. I have played more dice than any other game. I am a firm believer that dice have no memory, there are no hot/cold shooters and EVERY roll is independent of the last.

so, I should apply some of that same line of thought to Blackjack. What I think you are all saying is that just because I won or lost the last hand, it should have no influence on how I bet the next one. I must say that seems more logical than my other way of thinking.

so, it just so happens that I am going to be in Vegas thurs thru sun next week. To give this a far shot, I will play some sessions as straight flat betting and some with my "increase when I win" strategy. I am predicting that the straight betting will be more of a grind, but will show less swings in my bankroll.

[Mr. T]

Originally Posted by Jdesey

I did not say this thread would be popular.. and frankly I could care less. This is just my experience, nothing else. Yes, I have won as well playing basic strategy and flat betting. Taking every opportunity to split and double when I can. I have also lost big time with positive progressions. That was when I was crazy enough to press my entire winnings 2 3 4 times or more.

I do believe in streaks, there is no denying that they happen. Look at every casino game there is. Bacarrat and Roulette are great examples. I have seen 13 or more Banker/Player wins in Bacarrat at least 5 times this year. God help you if you were betting against that.

As I said before,,, this is just my experience and my opinion. I will also restate that I ALWAYS am ahead at some point in every session! The key is to take a break and protect those profits.

I endorse what you said but agree we are not in the majority here.
You might like to follow the other thread Sonny posted and see the big arguement I am having there with him on this matter. As you play along go with what you are most comfortable and enjoyable for yourself.

[Jdesey]

finally someone who sees a possible other side.....

the math boys on this website quote their statistics and there is no denying the math. But what this fails to consider is the himan experience of gambling. When you intorduce people and sounds and lights and noise and the excitement of winning it changes everything.

Yes I said I would try some flat betting next week, but I will just about guarantee that I end up using a conservative progression on subsequent wins. I enjoy playing and to me there is more to the whole thing than just a bunch of mathmatical calculations.

I will continue to my own thing and betcha I end up winning.

oh yeah.. and for the card counters out there..... try denying this.... if the count is high, and we go 10X or even 15X believeing that we are do high cards on the draw... then doesn't the same apply for every player at the table? you say what is the point? well there is only two players I should be concerned with.. myself and the dealer! This is why I believe card counting is flawed... the dealer also is due a great hand!!

so which is crazier? going 10X or 15X becasue we are "due" to get good cards? or increasing my bet becasue I won the last hand?