6D vs DD for cut card techniques

[weavin42]

Lets assume I've found a game where I could catch a glimpse of the back card in both 6D and DD games when being offered to cut the deck. Both games are no mid shoe entry but you can spread to multiple hands at anytime as long as you were in the shoe to begin with. Which game would be better to attack using the cut card/steering techniques? I will be playing with one teammate.

It would make sense that the DD game would be better because there would be more opportunities in a given time to see the back card and therefore more likely that the back card is a card I would like to use, however, in the same regard isn't it also more likely that casino will figure out what we're doing?

Also, how should I size my bets when I know an ace is coming? Is there a way to calculate ROR with such techniques? The last thing I would want to do is kill my bankroll by overbetting even when I have such a large advantage.

Last question (for now), is it better to target aces only for steering or should I also learn to steer 10s into position for the dealers first draw card?

Thanks,

Josh

[moo321]

In theory, you should be able to bet like 20-40% of your bankroll if you KNOW an ace is coming. But you don't always know an ace is coming, so I'd maybe bet more like 5%.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by weavin42

It would make sense that the DD game would be better because there would be more opportunities in a given time to see the back card and therefore more likely that the back card is a card I would like to use…

Right on. You will see more shuffles per hour in the DD game so you will have more opportunities to get an edge. In a 6D game you would be waiting around for hours just to find a single playable ace.

Originally Posted by weavin42

…however, in the same regard isn't it also more likely that casino will figure out what we're doing?

I would say you are still better off at the DD game. Would you rather be seen as the guy who bets crazily sometimes when he gets a hunch (DD) or the guy who bets the minimum for 12 shoes then suddenly makes a wildly huge bet out of nowhere (6D)? In my opinion, the DD has more opportunities for profit and camouflage. Either way you should leave before things get too sweaty anyway.

Originally Posted by weavin42

Also, how should I size my bets when I know an ace is coming?

Stick to good old Kelly. Your adjusted advantage is about 40%, but if you only calculate a 30% chance of getting the ace then you will need to be more conservative. It would be a good idea to set a 3% max on your bets until you get the hang of it and have a good idea of your hit rate. By then you’ll be able to calculate the correct Kelly fraction to bet based on your accuracy. Also, be sure to use Grosjean’s playing strategy once you get the ace.

Originally Posted by weavin42

…is it better to target aces only for steering or should I also learn to steer 10s into position for the dealers first draw card?

Stick to the aces. You won’t be accurate enough to steer any cards to the dealer with any reliability.

-Sonny-

[weavin42]

Thanks for the great input! Of course after I posted the questions, I thought there might be something in "Blackjack Ace Prediction" on bet sizing and advantage...and there was (I've only read it once because key carding doesn't work in my area with only ASMs).

I also downloaded the pdf from bjmath.com, "Updated 42.08%: More on the Ace in Hand" by James Grosjean and Previn Mankodi. Unfortunately the scans of the article are pretty poor. Does anyone have the original BJF article and if so would you care to scan it for me? EDIT: Actually found a better pdf, I don't know if it is the updated or the original.

We have some practicing at home to do before we hit this game.

So why did the MIT team also use steering to bust the dealer? Was it just that their bankroll was large enough absorb the times when they were off or when the 10 helped the dealer?

You are expected to see an Ace a little less than 8% of the time if you also so include 10's to your play it jumps the percent of steerable cards to 38%. I would think it would be easier to cut more accurately in DD then 6D.

Just my thoughts on that matter, for now we will stick to aces.

Josh

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by weavin42

I thought there might be something in "Blackjack Ace Prediction" on bet sizing and advantage...and there was

Be careful with the bet sizing chapters of that book! Be sure to read through the articles on Snyder’s website about the errors in that chapter. It will make a very big difference. I love McDowell’s book but that one chapter is dangerous.

Originally Posted by weavin42

I also downloaded the pdf from bjmath.com, "Updated 42.08%: More on the Ace in Hand" by James Grosjean and Previn Mankodi. Unfortunately the scans of the article are pretty poor.

It looks better if you zoom in on it.

Originally Posted by weavin42

So why did the MIT team also use steering to bust the dealer? Was it just that their bankroll was large enough absorb the times when they were off or when the 10 helped the dealer?

From what I understand (and this is just second-hand information here) is that the steering was one of the things that ruined the S.I. team. They were making money from counting but losing money on steering/tracking. The players who were using the fancy techniques were getting paid big money because their EV was high but in reality they weren’t producing any profit. That’s the reason S.I. broke up and everybody started new teams. The teams that started focusing on card counting have been successful.

Originally Posted by weavin42

I would think it would be easier to cut more accurately in DD then 6D.

That’s another good point. It can be easier, and you can also cut closer to the bottom so your target card will come out sooner.

-Sonny-

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by moo321

In theory, you should be able to bet like 20-40% of your bankroll if you KNOW an ace is coming. But you don't always know an ace is coming, so I'd maybe bet more like 5%.

No way, 20-40% is too much even if you are 100% sure the ace is coming. What if you have to double, or split aces? Even though your advantage is 50% for ruin purposes that figure is deceptive because a lot of your return is in non-even money bets. 5-10% is more realistic.