Wary of high some counts

[aslan]

Have you ever come into a high count that you just felt queasy about? Sometimes, a high count has all the earmarks of just what you're been waiting for. But at other times it just seems like a trap. It probably starts off with the dealer winning the first two or three hands in the positive count. The cards don't seem to be favoring most of the players, blah, blah, blah. I haven't been able to pin it down, but something in you says, "Here we go again!" So, did you ever just flatbet a high count or do you just mechanically throw in the higher bets as you would for any other positive count? Could the uneasiness be generated by something your subconscious mind sees but that your consicious mind overlooks? Personally, I have always just thrown in the bigger money, but invariably lost in these situations. Maybe I should start following my gut. What say thee?

[Bojack1]

Originally Posted by aslan

Have you ever come into a high count that you just felt queasy about? Sometimes, a high count has all the earmarks of just what you're been waiting for. But at other times it just seems like a trap. It probably starts off with the dealer winning the first two or three hands in the positive count. The cards don't seem to be favoring most of the players, blah, blah, blah. I haven't been able to pin it down, but something in you says, "Here we go again!" So, did you ever just flatbet a high count or do you just mechanically throw in the higher bets as you would for any other positive count? Could the uneasiness be generated by something your subconscious mind sees but that your consicious mind overlooks? Personally, I have always just thrown in the bigger money, but invariably lost in these situations. Maybe I should start following my gut. What say thee?

To answer your first question, no. If the count is high I am confident that I will play as I should. It doesn't mean I can't get a disappointing result, but that just comes with the territory. I would never flatbet or change my thinking during what I have deemed to be an advantageous situation. I would tend to believe that uneasy gut feelings and other things of a sub concious level, might be a way of saying to yourself maybe I'm not sure if this is betting situation is what it appears to be. That could be manifested from past large losses during times of advantage bets, or not being totally sold on your abilities at the table. I truly believe that those feelings go hand in hand. You can lie to yourself to a point, but you can not lie to your subconcious. If you are not all in on the concept of your AP system, no amount of talking about it will make those feelings go away. Bad losses can leave a bad taste in your mouth, but if you conciously or subconciously feel poor play may have been the cause of it, then you will lose the ability to shake off bad losses. Whats even worse is that you could also start chalking up wins to luck and unknowingly start losing faith in your system. I have read many people here say they would rather be lucky then good. If you are any kind of AP thats crap. Its true on any given day a lucky person will beat a good one, but I don't live for any given day, I live for everyday. Good luck can become bad luck at any given time without warning, real skills are constant and more conducive to the long term and more along the guidelines of how an AP should think. Don't get me wrong I think we all need some good luck sometimes, I just wouldn't want to have to depend on it. Also I find those that really excel at something tend to be the luckiest. Coincidence?

[21forme]

Maybe I should start following my gut.

Do we need to hit you over the head to knock some sense back into you?
We've all had those sessions when you expect and want the paint, but you get the 2s and 3s. It just hurts more, and you're more likely to remember it, when the big bets are out.

[SystemsTrader]

Originally Posted by Bojack1

Also I find those that really excel at something tend to be the luckiest. Coincidence?

Vince Lombardi summed it up best when he said "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity".

[mdlbj]

Originally Posted by asian

do you just mechanically throw in the higher bets as you would for any other positive count?

Yes.

Originally Posted by aslan

Could the uneasiness be generated by something your subconscious mind sees but that your consicious mind overlooks? Personally, I have always just thrown in the bigger money, but invariably lost in these situations. Maybe I should start following my gut. What say thee?[/

If you feel uneasy about placing larger bets when the count calls for them, it could be that you are not comfortable risking money at all.

[SystemsTrader]

Aslan, I think you know better than to follow your gut. What I suggest is that you lower your risk of ruin and use a smaller top bet because you aren't comfortable at your current level and you are letting your emotions get in the way. I see it all the time with commodity traders. Believe it or not your goal should not be to make money at blackjack but it should be to execute your positive EV system flawlessly. When this happens you will achieve happiness at the game and the money will just follow.

[aslan]

Originally Posted by mdlbj

Yes.




If you feel uneasy about placing larger bets when the count calls for them, it could be that you are not comfortable risking money at all.

Doesn't everyone love a sure thing? I always try for the sure thing in all my pursuits, but that doesn't mean I don't have the balls for taking some risk here and there. I think what drives this question is the belief that the subconscious mind sees more than our conscious minds and this kind of "hunch" could be a whole lot more than "luck." I bet zg knows what I'm talking about if he wants to weigh in. Sometimes it seems like de javu, but I just keep throwing more cheques on the fire. lol You see, my educated mind won't give in to my mystical nature, or some such bull*rap, so unless someone can speak to this "second sight" phenomenon, I will continue taking the good with the bad so to speak.

Scientifically speaking, maybe our subconscious mind zeroes in on certain clumps or sequences of cards that never got properly shuffled and are now repeating. That would be a plausible explanation, at least as good as the one that says I'm just afraid to take risks.

[aslan]

Originally Posted by SystemsTrader

Vince Lombardi summed it up best when he said "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity".

Yes! That's especially true of things requiring physical dexterity such as football or billiards. To that I can attest. The better player always seems to get the rolls.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by aslan

Have you ever come into a high count that you just felt queasy about? Sometimes, a high count has all the earmarks of just what you're been waiting for. But at other times it just seems like a trap. It probably starts off with the dealer winning the first two or three hands in the positive count. The cards don't seem to be favoring most of the players, blah, blah, blah. I haven't been able to pin it down, but something in you says, "Here we go again!" So, did you ever just flatbet a high count or do you just mechanically throw in the higher bets as you would for any other positive count? Could the uneasiness be generated by something your subconscious mind sees but that your consicious mind overlooks? Personally, I have always just thrown in the bigger money, but invariably lost in these situations. Maybe I should start following my gut. What say thee?

yep, that's how it goes alright.

"Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.
Albert Einstein

As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain, and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.
Albert Einstein

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein"

lol, that last quote is a doozy when it comes to playing blackjack isn't it?
but thats whats weird about blackjack. in the short run you never really know what to expect but over time the hazyness of expectation becomes a little less blurry lol.
the whole premise with respect to orthodox counting is to get the money out there in the positive counts. the idea being that you will have money out there when you get more blackjacks, sucessful double downs and sucessful splits whereas you will win more money against the normal hands you've played and lost money with. conclusion, if you want the expectation that orthodox counting affords then you need follow it's strictures.
sounds funny comming from me i know. lol

[eps6724]

Originally Posted by aslan

Maybe I should start following my gut.

No, no, NO! It's not "follow my gut", it's:

GO WITH GUTZ!

Brought to you by the committee to never forget the Lucky Ned thread!