Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com

  #1  
Old December 12th, 2007, 09:50 AM
sgduke sgduke is offline
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Default Strategy charts do not really work

The strategy charts widely available online that supposedly help you to win at blackjack do not really work. They only reduce your odds of losing.
Check out this simulation that proves it:
http://sgduke.wordpress.com/2007/12/10/55/
  #2  
Old December 12th, 2007, 09:57 AM
Royals Royals is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sgduke View Post
The strategy charts widely available online that supposedly help you to win at blackjack do not really work. They only reduce your odds of losing.
Check out this simulation that proves it:
http://sgduke.wordpress.com/2007/12/10/55/
"Well, so does following the strategy chart in the long run work? It might have lowered the odds of losing, but definitely does not ensure a profit."

They never claimed to "ensure a profit".

Last edited by Royals; December 12th, 2007 at 11:21 AM.
  #3  
Old December 12th, 2007, 10:05 AM
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Default This is not news

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgduke View Post
The strategy charts widely available online that supposedly help you to win at blackjack do not really work. They only reduce your odds of losing.
Can't really argue with that!
  #4  
Old December 12th, 2007, 10:09 AM
toastblows toastblows is offline
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i think some people forget the casino has ZERO games you are suppose to win at. Reducing house edge doesnt guarentee a win either, but it helps reduce your risk of loss.

Last edited by toastblows; December 12th, 2007 at 10:12 AM.
  #5  
Old December 12th, 2007, 10:18 AM
sgduke sgduke is offline
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The ubiquitousness of such strategy charts might have caused some people, like myself, to be mistaken about their effectivess.
Well, I guess this is only useful for newbies, like me. Thanks for the feedback.
  #6  
Old December 12th, 2007, 10:22 AM
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Sonny Sonny is offline
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I think it is fairly common knowledge that a Basic Strategy player is still at a disadvantage to the house. The purpose of BS is not to get an advantage but to play every hand properly using the given information. Even if you play perfect BS the house still has the advantage. Thatís how they make their money. As you've seen, blaying BS only limits your losses.

Although it doesnít make much of a difference, your simulation used the wrong basic strategy chart. It looks like the chart you used was for six decks, which is slightly different than the strategy for the single-deck game you coded. You can get the proper strategy and house edge for any set of rules from the Basic Strategy Engine on this website:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php

Also, looking at 400,000 hands is probably not enough to give you very accurate results. I would guess that the standard deviation and standard error of those 400 samples was moderately high. Most people will simulate at least 250 million hands, and often more than a billion, to get more precise results. To be accurate to 2 decimal places takes a lot of samples.

Anyway, good work on coding your own simulator. Iíve written a few and I know how tricky it can be. What RNG did you use?

-Sonny-
  #7  
Old December 12th, 2007, 07:19 PM
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Default Wanna bet?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgduke View Post
The strategy charts widely available online that supposedly help you to win at blackjack do not really work. They only reduce your odds of losing.
Check out this simulation that proves it:
http://sgduke.wordpress.com/2007/12/10/55/
Try the single deck, S-17, DAS, DOA, ES on this forum. Go ahead and run a sim and then let us know what you come up with.
  #8  
Old December 13th, 2007, 07:52 PM
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Cardcounting and other "AP" techniques don't always work either. In fact, a card counter only expects a small advantage overall. The swings can be huge.
  #9  
Old December 13th, 2007, 08:59 PM
Unshake Unshake is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bj bob View Post
Try the single deck, S-17, DAS, DOA, ES on this forum. Go ahead and run a sim and then let us know what you come up with.
Forgot blackjack pays 2-1
  #10  
Old December 13th, 2007, 10:02 PM
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aslan aslan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sonny View Post
I think it is fairly common knowledge that a Basic Strategy player is still at a disadvantage to the house. The purpose of BS is not to get an advantage but to play every hand properly using the given information. Even if you play perfect BS the house still has the advantage. Thatís how they make their money. As you've seen, blaying BS only limits your losses.

Although it doesnít make much of a difference, your simulation used the wrong basic strategy chart. It looks like the chart you used was for six decks, which is slightly different than the strategy for the single-deck game you coded. You can get the proper strategy and house edge for any set of rules from the Basic Strategy Engine on this website:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php

Also, looking at 400,000 hands is probably not enough to give you very accurate results. I would guess that the standard deviation and standard error of those 400 samples was moderately high. Most people will simulate at least 250 million hands, and often more than a billion, to get more precise results. To be accurate to 2 decimal places takes a lot of samples.

Anyway, good work on coding your own simulator. Iíve written a few and I know how tricky it can be. What RNG did you use?

-Sonny-

Sonny--

How much do the, say, top 18 preferred indices and insurance change the advantage toward the player (assuming otherwise perfect basic strategy). Do they get it close to even? I noticed my last several sessions that I gained more ground in neutral and negative territory than I did in positive counts when I was betting the recommended higher amounts. I know this will pay off in the long run, provided I survive, but I was surpised how well I did in the flatbetting areas of my sessions.
 

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