Popping my AP cherry.

[Rspeirsmlb]

So last week I had my "practice round" of backcounting and getting a good feel for what I need to improve on for my game in a live casino environment. Tonight I'm staying at a casino and am strictly backcounting and am logging in my first REAL session!!! I'm extremely excited, and am having my ex girlfriend (I told her if she even thinks about getting back together with me she better help me backcount until I make some profit......[is that mean?!!]) backcount with me. It's also good for cover...I'm shooting for the "she just likes to watch" act...and if the count goes +.....then oops, I might as well play for a bit. For all of you other AP players playing tonight...I hope the positive variance cupid shoots you with his arrow. Wish me luck!

Game playing: 6D, DOA, DAS, No resplitting aces, H17 (blah) 75% pen.

Counting system: KO preferred (wonging and exit wonging only)
-2 bet 2x$50, +2 bet 2x$100, +5 bet 2x$200

Bankroll: $30,000
Trip Bankroll: $3,000 (should have brought more but couldn't get to the bank today)
Room already comped and meals will be comped already.

P.S. I'll give the results tomorrow morning when I come back.

[The Stork]

Sir, to save you some money

go into the shoe only when your pivat got to 0. That is the point where you
also use True edge refinements. If you play with that money you better know exactly what your edge is. Formula is RC/2x decks in play.

When your running is 8 and 2.5 decks is played than you multiply 3.5x2=7
makes 8/7 means your advantage climbed 1 percent Remember that at 0 you have about a 1/2 percentage advantage. So that means 1.5% It will give you more security and if you ever decide to bet kelly, you can bet 1/4 kelly.


If your cover is your girlfriend try to playing while impressing here and smack those big bets on the table. Standing behind the table long time looks to suspicious. If you are in Vegas.. Go play hit and run tactic.


Wishing you well,

The Stork

[Rspeirsmlb]

Formula is RC/2x decks in play.
When your running is 8 and 2.5 decks is played than you multiply 3.5x2=7
makes 8/7 means your advantage climbed 1 percent

Did you mean 3.5 decks in play?

So RC/(2 x amount of decks) = my advantage/disadvatage? Is the adjustment because of the H17 rule? What about the insurance count and all my other index plays.....would those change as well?! I'm confused. Wouldn't this change my exit points? So I basically only have a Pivot point (0)...and no key count?
What would you recommend my betting scheme to be adjusted to? Thanks for the advice....Good thing for the blizzard tonight and my low profile tires.....cause roads are too bad to drive on and I'll take in the advice you have for me!!!

[EasyRhino]

That's a pretty serious bankroll to commit for this AP thing. Do you usually throw around that much money gambling?

Stork, are you talking about Arnie Snyder's True edge stuff from blackbelt in blackjack?

[Rspeirsmlb]

Not anymore.....I'm trying to devote myself more to AP only now. All I'm shooting for is to double my $30k bankroll....but I've decided I'm going to purchase a sim because from what I hear it's an excellent investment and is really useful...I'll hold off my first session for another month or so.

[The Stork]

Red seven with and true edge gives you a much better indicater of how much to bet in correlation to optimum betting strategy. You can pul it of by running count indexes. so if you have the right numbers with you using KO nothing should change the way you do it. I guess in KO using 6 deck you - 4 is the indeed the number where you start to upgrade your bets. My apoligize. I thought for a moment you used Red Seven count. It is has been shown though that REd seven outperforms KO, and not the other way around.

If using unbalanced counts you better change to red seven. It can be found on Arnold Snyders website. He has great simulation software what you could use for any form form of rules to see what you are up to. Everything is the same comparing True edge calculation but for KO it pivot number is indeed -4 with 6decks. But again with that kind of money you better switch to highlow or use a true edge with your unbalanced count.

Hope it helped.

Stork

[Rspeirsmlb]

Thank you stork....I thought I heard that KO outperformed Red 7 a number of times on this forum.....How would I calculate the my true edge if I stick with KO? Instead of jumping in at -4, I'm going to bet at -2. How can I calculate my edge....keeping in mind the game is H17? I've decided to put a hault on my casino play until I come up with a more persistant way to play and be more comfortable by dinking around with a sim.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Rspeirsmlb

......................I've decided to put a hault on my casino play until I come up with a more persistant way to play and be more comfortable by dinking around with a sim.

that gives you a almost zero ROR until you come up with a more persistant way to play and find comfort dinking around with sims and all lol.
it wouldn't be easy for me to have a cavalier attitude about thirty grand.
i sometimes watch that show where the contestants try and guess what briefcase should be opened in a quest to win a million dollars. sometimes they get lucky part way through the game and find themselves with a fairly significant amount of money. the question then becomes should they risk that money in order to try and get more lol. sometimes they end up winning more money before calling the game off and sometimes they lose virtually all of what they had won. i always think that myself i'd go with the 'significant' amount and not continue the game. i guess the question boils down to losing how much is significant to any given gambler.

[Rspeirsmlb]

Yeah I watched that show...Deal or no Deal..some of those people get greedy!!! Take $300,000 or risk it all to either get a penny or a million....Do people know what that kinda money can do?

[blackjack avenger]

I would imagine each individual has their own idea of what $300,000 would do for their quality of life. I would think there is pressure on the show to always go for more. Of course a true AP would also consider the odds or risk to reward.

On a personal note I am sitting here with a young babe and when I asked her if she would take $300,000 or go for the million she said "what are the odds?" I am thinking she could be taught some things. LOL