Losing in positive counts is becoming all too familiar

[aslan]

It seems I keep getting repeats of the same all too familiar losing in positive counts. In general, I find myself holding my own in neutral and negative counts, but when the count goes positive and I begin ramping up my bets, all hell breaks loose. Like today, I had a super positive count (KO +17). I lost repeatedly and the only thing that saved part of my session BR was a last round stand of two hands at $200 each which resulted in an $800 win due to doubling down and splitting. Were it not for this single round, I would have been out $3,000. Many of the losses during the positive count of this shoe were due to max bets on multiple hands involving splits and double downs that lost, and busting on stiffs. However, on one round the fellow at first base got p*ssed off because I failed to hit a 16 and a 15 at KO +5, since I follow the preferred KO betting strategy which calls for standing on those hands at +4 and above. Had I hit I would have received a 5 and a 6 for two perfect hands and the dealer would have busted. But that's beside to point. I'm getting weary of finding myself losing during positive counts and losing a couple thousand here and a couple thouseand there while waiting for the long run to show it's pretty face. I think I'm going to give counting a rest for a while. It just seems way too iffy in actual practice. My wins are modest because they usually come from either the flatbetting portion of shoe or they come betting higher in positive counts but are lessened by a number of dealer wins. The losses on the other hand are usually from positive counts where the dealer wins most of the hands. So it seems I'm destined for many small gains, and a few large losses. Damn! It almost sounds like progression betting. I'd just like to once have one of those large wins from max bets in positive counts that I keep hearing about but never get to experience. It reminds me that it is a fact that the dealer should win more hands than the player even in positive counts, since the only way it favors the player is in splits, double downs, and blackjacks, as well as the dealer busting more when he has to hit. But it stands to reason that much of time the dealer and the other players are going to get those good cards that fall out in plus counts to the counters detriment. Everything has to line up for the counter to have a heyday. Anyway, I'm going to give it a rest for a while. BTW, I am writing this from my hotel room at the Borgata, AC.

[moo321]

Our job isn't to win, our job is to bet a ton when we have an edge, and not lose much when we don't. Things should go our way, but that's out of our control. We should always strive to criticize incorrect play in our mind, and reward proper , disciplined play. That, and we should ignore losses, and dwell on wins.

[Bojack1]

Aslan, what you are feeling is typical. In your case I think it is a good idea to step back and just breathe. Its up to you what you do with this frustration you feel. I sense you have doubts about the concept of counting and actually winning with it. Lets be honest here, you haven't given it your best shot yet. You have admitted to doing almost as many non AP things as you have AP. It seems you haven't completely separated yourself from the gamblers way of thinking either in the process. There is a reason that most counters don't turn a profitable game, and you have exhibited it in the past. When the game gets frustrating you revert to things you know are wrong and totally against what you are trying to become. Then you write about it to cleanse your soul, but I don't think you truly believe it.

Let me tell you what I have experienced with talking with new aspiring AP's. There are 3 kinds. Those who have been lucky and are way above E.V. and will swear counting is the best thing since sliced bread and that they will soon be rich. There are those who are unlucky and are below E.V. and claim that counting sucks and is all just worthless theory. And finally there are those that either way understand the game and realize and understand the fluctuations. The last being the huge minority. Who do you think stands the best chance of remaining an AP? Which one do you want to be? Basically, its only a game to most, keep that in mind. It sucks to lose money, but as long as you can afford to lose it, then its still just a game. Its beatable, odds are you wont beat it, nothing personal, but the odds are stacked in favor of those that fail vs. those that succeed. If for nothing else use beating the odds, along with making money as an impetus to stay the right course. Prove me wrong that you are not just like every other wannabee counter out there that hit some lows and couldn't hack it. Prove it to yourself.

By the way, take your breather, and then get the hell out of A.C and find some decent games to play, that might also help.

[toastblows]

1. Casinos have ZERO games offered that you are suppose to win

2. Counting is a tool, not a guarentee. Probability and Reality are different.

3. Have fun. If you arent, you might as well work a job

[sagefr0g]

Aslan, you and i have traveled down a similar road it seems. although from the betting levels you describe i think you are playing at higher stakes than i ever attempted.
but i also reached a point where i decided to take a breather from play. and it was after a short series of some pretty bad beats after a long series of pretty darn nice results. i called it my blackjack sabbatical.
it was at least a time to not be losing money and where i could examine what the heck it was that i was doing anyway lol . i'm still on the sabbatical although i have played some.
much of what you say in your post rings true with me. and then what Bojack wrote also rings true.
so far where my sabbatical has led me is a result of not so much that i've learned anything new about advantage play but that i've had new insight about my self. i suppose some people are capable of playing blackjack like a computer. i for one would find it a miserly existance even if the money rolled in like it may for a computer. i simply can not divorce my self from the play.
lets say we could play at a ROR of 1%. it would always be in the back of my mind that it would be me that is going to be the one that the ruin falls upon.
but what riles me about that is that if that did happen it would happen with out my having interjected what ever it is that i could have done or should have done to try and stop it. i believe part of the conumdrun for me is that i can't honestly devote the required bankroll amount to the long term knowing that there is some percent risk of ruin that i need to live with. the weird thing is i can devote some amount to any given session. but i even then still have the personal need to be an active participant in the process rather than a passive participant that plays like a computer. so thats where i am for now with respect to playing blackjack a game i love.
good luck to you and may you make wise decisions what ever you do.

[Canceler]

aslan –

While you’re taking your breather, ask yourself what I think of as the “Big 3” questions:

1) Am I playing my hands correctly?
2) Am I counting correctly?
3) Am I betting correctly?

If you can’t honestly answer “yes” to all three, then you might have to fix something.

Your story does remind me of a recent experience I had. I drove for 1½ hours to get to the casino. I spent about half an hour walking around drinking coffee, while scoping out the games. In an hour and a half of playing I didn’t quite lose all the money I brought along, but I lost enough so that I wouldn’t be able to play properly. And I distinctly remember the count hitting +20 (KO) during that time. So I had to leave for the 1½ hour drive home much sooner than I had planned. That was definitely not what I had in mind for that trip!

[aslan]

Originally Posted by Bojack1

Aslan, what you are feeling is typical. In your case I think it is a good idea to step back and just breathe. Its up to you what you do with this frustration you feel. I sense you have doubts about the concept of counting and actually winning with it. Lets be honest here, you haven't given it your best shot yet. You have admitted to doing almost as many non AP things as you have AP. It seems you haven't completely separated yourself from the gamblers way of thinking either in the process. There is a reason that most counters don't turn a profitable game, and you have exhibited it in the past. When the game gets frustrating you revert to things you know are wrong and totally against what you are trying to become. Then you write about it to cleanse your soul, but I don't think you truly believe it.

Let me tell you what I have experienced with talking with new aspiring AP's. There are 3 kinds. Those who have been lucky and are way above E.V. and will swear counting is the best thing since sliced bread and that they will soon be rich. There are those who are unlucky and are below E.V. and claim that counting sucks and is all just worthless theory. And finally there are those that either way understand the game and realize and understand the fluctuations. The last being the huge minority. Who do you think stands the best chance of remaining an AP? Which one do you want to be? Basically, its only a game to most, keep that in mind. It sucks to lose money, but as long as you can afford to lose it, then its still just a game. Its beatable, odds are you wont beat it, nothing personal, but the odds are stacked in favor of those that fail vs. those that succeed. If for nothing else use beating the odds, along with making money as an impetus to stay the right course. Prove me wrong that you are not just like every other wannabee counter out there that hit some lows and couldn't hack it. Prove it to yourself.

By the way, take your breather, and then get the hell out of A.C and find some decent games to play, that might also help.

Bojack,

Thanks for your reply.

Well, I have won more than I have lost over all. Yes, I am impatient to win sizable amounts and that is why I am playing $25 min now. I don't know how I stand with E.V. Playing $25 and higher demands a greater investment in terms of BR. This means some significant losses that my "bride" has trouble fathoming. I hate taking money from our joint funds, so I am actually thinking of working a job to replenish my BR. Working is not my favorite occupation. lol

I have not paid a lot of attention to E.V. If you play a $25 game 40 hours a month, how much should you expect to win? I am wondering if this figure, whatever it is, will be enough in my mind to justify the effort expended. I see counting as a business, but the work/reward ratio has to be right. Just winning in the long run is not enough for me. While playing is fun, it still has to be worth the effort and the risk.

[aslan]

Originally Posted by toastblows

1. Casinos have ZERO games offered that you are suppose to win

2. Counting is a tool, not a guarentee. Probability and Reality are different.

3. Have fun. If you arent, you might as well work a job

I have great fun playing. I don't enjoy losing. Probability and reality should approach oneness in the long run. It's the rate at which one gets to where one wants to go that has my attention.

[aslan]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

Aslan, you and i have traveled down a similar road it seems. although from the betting levels you describe i think you are playing at higher stakes than i ever attempted.
but i also reached a point where i decided to take a breather from play. and it was after a short series of some pretty bad beats after a long series of pretty darn nice results. i called it my blackjack sabbatical.
it was at least a time to not be losing money and where i could examine what the heck it was that i was doing anyway lol . i'm still on the sabbatical although i have played some.
much of what you say in your post rings true with me. and then what Bojack wrote also rings true.
so far where my sabbatical has led me is a result of not so much that i've learned anything new about advantage play but that i've had new insight about my self. i suppose some people are capable of playing blackjack like a computer. i for one would find it a miserly existance even if the money rolled in like it may for a computer. i simply can not divorce my self from the play.
lets say we could play at a ROR of 1%. it would always be in the back of my mind that it would be me that is going to be the one that the ruin falls upon.
but what riles me about that is that if that did happen it would happen with out my having interjected what ever it is that i could have done or should have done to try and stop it. i believe part of the conumdrun for me is that i can't honestly devote the required bankroll amount to the long term knowing that there is some percent risk of ruin that i need to live with. the weird thing is i can devote some amount to any given session. but i even then still have the personal need to be an active participant in the process rather than a passive participant that plays like a computer. so thats where i am for now with respect to playing blackjack a game i love.
good luck to you and may you make wise decisions what ever you do.

I can easily relate to your story. We are perhaps kindred spirits.

Actually, since I have made sure to get plenty of sleep on these trips, the roller coaster no longer bothers me. Judging from others' reactions, I sometimes seem totally detached, even bored, by what is going on. My hand just pushes out $200 to two or three hands like it was nothing. It's the right thing to do no matter what happens. I actually enjoy being able to conquer my emotions to this point. It took a while. But since the level I aspire to requires more money than I wish to take from joint accounts, I may decide to get a job to replenish my bankroll.

This time I am not at all depressed. I just see it as negative fluctuation that would probably go away tomorrow it I played. Acquiring the size BR that I would like to have is a bit of a problem because I don't want to take from joint accounts. But that's about it. Oh, and I do want to understand the rate at which i should expect to win in the long run. I don't like the idea of perhaps losing a large amount here and there on a journey to net a surer small amount. But that's just me I guess.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by aslan

Probability and reality should approach oneness in the long run.

I just hope it's not the probability of losing a bankroll that merges with reality.

Have you even bought a sim yet?

You don't know your EV? You think betting $200 to 2 or 3 hands can both be correct? Suddenly going to a $25 min game? Do you even know what bankroll you are betting with, ROR? etc.

Love you to death but I can't help worrying, without even knowing what kind of game you're playing, etc. that, basically, you may be over-betting. And then some.

Contrary to what someone said our job is not to "bet a ton" in positive EV situations but the amount you know is called for.

Hope I'm wrong lol.

Feel free to convince me lol!