Match the Dealer - blackjack sidebet

[playerwh]

Hi. Does anyone have a house edge analysis for the "match the dealer" sidebet on some blackjack tables under the following conditions. 6 deck.
Payouts:

2 suited matches 22:1
One suited and one non-suited match 15:1
One suited match 11:1
Two non-suited matched 8:1
One non-suited match 4:1

I am not sure whether this is a good bet or not because I don't know what the house edge is, or rather what are the true odds of each of the five events occurring. Thanks.

[miplet]

It has an ev of -0.040618193. (You will lose an average of $4.06 per $100 bet.)
More info on this and other sidebets at The Wizard of Odds.

[KenSmith]

I suspect the house edge is very volatile on this bet, and there will be occasional profitable deck compositions. Anyone want to work up an analysis?

[Automatic Monkey]

If you absolutely must play the bet, play it at a Spanish 21 table, which has a house edge of about 3%.

Foxwoods has their own paytable for the bet on the standard BJ game which absolutely stinks. I got something like a 7% house edge for it. But the MTD sidebet is made by the same people who make Spanish 21, so the legit paytable is printed right on the baize, not too much they can do about that.

[playerwh]

Thanks guys for the info and advice. As I am not as mathamatically astute as some of you guys on here, I guess what I am asking is this: can someone state the odds of winning each of the match play options in a 6 deck shoe? Something like:

Two suited matches - odds are xx:1 (against)
One suited match - odds are xx: 1 (against)
etc.

Also, how do I read the probability column on the following chart from wizard of odds? (Click here for the chart). What do those numbers represent?

Thanks so much for any info and your time in explaining this.

[Canceler]

Well, here’s my interpretation. I’m sure someone will correct me if I’m wrong.

The probability of two suited matches occurring is 0.000207, or 207/1000000. Out of every million hands you will not get it 999793 times. So, 999793:207, or 4830:1.

[Automatic Monkey]

It's (5/311)*(4/310), or 4820.5:1

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

It's (5/311)*(4/310), or 4820.5:1

Yeah, but you’re doing it the hard way.

Looking in the Wiz's "Combinations" column we can see that two suited matches happens 10 times out of 48205 possible hands. That reduces to 4,820.5:1.

Similarly you could look at the “Probability” column and take 1/0.0002074 = 4,821.6:1 which is pretty close considering the rounding errors involved.

-Sonny-

[Canceler]

AM & Sonny:

I have a small theoretical quibble about the way you guys are doing this. Let’s look at a simple example, the odds of getting two heads in a row in the ever-popular coin toss.

1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4, or .25. 1/.25 = 4. Doing it your way, you would say the odds are 4:1. I think it’s really 3:1. Whadaya think?

I fully acknowledge that for things that are unlikely to happen, such as the subject at hand, it doesn’t matter much.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by Canceler

I have a small theoretical quibble about the way you guys are doing this. Let’s look at a simple example, the odds of getting two heads in a row in the ever-popular coin toss.

1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4, or .25. 1/.25 = 4. Doing it your way, you would say the odds are 4:1. I think it’s really 3:1. Whadaya think?

Yes, that’s true. Correcting my last post we can see that the true odds should have been 4,819.5:1 instead of 4,820.5:1. Nice catch!

-Sonny-