How quickly it can turn

[Automatic Monkey]

Not to be depressing or dramatic, just a warning to to rookies about how extreme swings can be and how horrifying losses can be.

This past week I was on a BJ road trip. It went acceptably well, short of trip EV (mostly due to weather and crowded conditions) but I fought off the dealers and the heat and had a reasonably profitable time. (My nicest hand was a spectacular one that has a 1 out of 281775 chance of occurring in this particular game. Shhh... that's all the info you need to determine where I was playing!)

Tonight I walked into a New Jersey store, with a nice fat playing stake and anticipation of the usual slow grind and typical modest profits. Four hours later, I walked out crushed and bankrupt. Down 208 units, almost exactly twice my winnings of the previous week.

It started with a weird play. Very high count, the civilian to my right and I had the same soft hand and I had a max bet on it while he had a small bet. It was a marginal double down situation so I got my double up. The civilian was contemplating doubling too, and the dealer flashed the next card, which would have given either of us a 21. I paid the civilian a black to not take the hit, which I did, and both of us ended up very happy that hand, even though I took a beating at that table overall.

At another table, I saw something new. My usual slow-bleed, nothing serious, but the dealer looked sick. I mean, really sick. In the middle of a hand he yells "Floor, emergency!" and runs from the table with his hand over his mouth, heaving. Now I've seen players do that but never a dealer. Some of the other players thought it was funny but I didn't; I don't like deviations from the norm, they always seem to portend a bad experience for some reason. The PC dealt out the rest of the hand and another dealer came in. Couldn't wait to get away from that table.

Wish I did wait. The next table saw a very high count very quickly, and I did my thing. And it all fell apart. Lost hand after hand. Ten BJ's were dealt during that run- 4 to the dealer, 5 to the other player at the table, and one to me, despite my playing two hands. The high cards came out fast and furious- usually two to the dealer, two to the other player and a nice stiff for me. And it was slow and annoying. That shoe took nearly a half hour- ploppies bickering in Vietnamese between every card, blowing smoke in my face, no-English dealer with a smartass snicker after every player loss and even grudged one of my rare wins, trying to pick up the bet instead of pay. Digging and digging until I had no more to dig, and that sickening feeling of playing with the crumbs of your playing stake, dinky little bets on a huge count, unwilling to walk away from a good count but knowing even if you won every remaining hand it wouldn't make much of a difference. And to add insult to injury, I did win the last few hands, with tiny bets, as ploppy and pit boss turned their heads away in pity and disgust at the nauseating spectacle they just witnessed.

No of course I'm not really bankrupt. But when I wake up tomorrow it's not going to be just a dream- the money is really gone. It's a few months' EV up in smoke. I struggled and ground the whole week before just to make half that much- all gone. True, it's also only about a month's salary for me too. But what if it wasn't? This would be devastating, probably turn me off to the game for good, despite there being only a 1% chance of this kind of loss occurring. There will be a 1% chance of it happening again tomorrow. And that would be devastating. Hopefully this story will help everyone prepare for what you most definitely will encounter if you play long enough.

[EasyRhino]

Wow, bummer. The most I've managed to lose in one session was about two month's salary. And that was similarly not fun.

(I had a weird thing happen to me the other day, also. I got six 9s on my hand (after splits), in a doubledeck game. I think I also lost every one of those splits.)

The strange thing to me is that you managed to hit this awesome losing trip in AC. Where I presume you were wonging, which supposedly reduces your risk of ruin.

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

I don't like deviations from the norm, they always seem to portend a bad experience for some reason.

Wow, voodoo from the automonkey? You must really be shaken up, dude.

Good luck on not catching ebola virus.

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by EasyRhino

Wow, bummer. The most I've managed to lose in one session was about two month's salary. And that was similarly not fun.

(I had a weird thing happen to me the other day, also. I got six 9s on my hand (after splits), in a doubledeck game. I think I also lost every one of those splits.)

The strange thing to me is that you managed to hit this awesome losing trip in AC. Where I presume you were wonging, which supposedly reduces your risk of ruin.

Sometimes yes, sometimes no. If you are Wonging around, it does not, because you are seeing a lot more high counts and getting down a lot more big bets. So what it does is compress your results into a shorter time period. As experience shows all of us it's on the high counts where you have your most memorable disasters.

Originally Posted by EasyRhino

Wow, voodoo from the automonkey? You must really be shaken up, dude.

Good luck on not catching ebola virus.

That's the only kind of voodoo I like, the kind of voodoo that has nothing to do with the cards. I swear, next time I'm playing and the dealer vomits, I'm going home! (After playing out a good count of course.)

With my luck, the guy probably had something contagious and I have it now.

[toastblows]

I think you will learn a lot from a 200 unit loss, though i feel your pain...that sucks some donkey balls. I learned from horrible sessions to not chase a positive count when your roll is going extinct...despite all logic that says you are in the probability to win, you get to see what long shots really look like....like losing 12, 14, 16 hands in a row. Thats mathematically stunning but not impossible.

The worst part for me is starting over a roll from scratch. I think back on rolls ive lost in 1 day and wish i wouldve stopped at 50% depletion even though the count was good. Easier to build it back up from 50% left....than a pocket full of lint.

[creeping panther]

in another thread you must play 1, 2 or 4 deckers and have them be very good games and then be heads up or only have 1 other player at the table.

Keep playing the 6 and 8 deckers and you will lose over the long haul and the short haul, heck any haul. You are just wasting your money.

Hate to see you guys make that mistake, or fall for all the BS.

Creeping Panther.

[21forme]

Yup, it happens. Last month, I had my biggest single day win and Yesterday I had my biggest single day loss (fortunately last month's win was 3x bigger than the loss.)

On another note, I leaned some PCs have amazing memories. I ventured back into a place that half-shoed me almost a year ago. I didn't notice any familiar faces, but after flat-betting the first shoe (due to the flat count) the PC tells the dealer to cut the next shoe in half. I used no card and nobody alse at the table warranted any action by the pit.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by EasyRhino

Where I presume you were wonging, which supposedly reduces your risk of ruin.

In theory, one can play with the same roll and same ROR no matter what game you are playing or how you are playing it.

The only thing that changes is you play your roll with different mins and maxes and spread points etc, likely changing your win rate and standard deviation, to achieve the ROR you are comfortable with.

So it's up to the individual to decide how to play one's roll under changing conditions.

Why anyone would, for example, choose to bet exactly the same way with the same spread at the same counts playing-all vs back-counting or wonging-out when the former might be high ROR, say full-Kelly, but the latter small ROR, say 1%, is beyond me.

[Doofus]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

Tonight I walked into a New Jersey store, with a nice fat playing stake and anticipation of the usual slow grind and typical modest profits. Four hours later, I walked out crushed and bankrupt. Down 208 units, almost exactly twice my winnings of the previous week.

Thanks for your cautionary tale. Might I ask why you persisted in playing when you were down so sharply? Though I am no expert at all, I could never imagine not cutting my losses and stopping long before I reached this point.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Doofus

Thanks for your cautionary tale. Might I ask why you persisted in playing when you were down so sharply? Though I am no expert at all, I could never imagine not cutting my losses and stopping long before I reached this point.

but if you could imagine having such a loss and then recouping that loss in the future and further in the future knowing you would end up far ahead would you still try and cut your losses? for an AP to stop play what it does is lower the number of hands he can get in. but an AP's ultimate gain is correlated to the number of hands he can get in. so in actuality all stopping play does is slow down an AP's winrate.

[EasyRhino]

When I had my biggest loss in a single session (turns out, about the same size as automonkey's), I actually went to the ATM to pull out more funds.

If I was just plain gambling, such behavior would have been incredibly self-destructive. Actually, even though I was playing a pretty good game, it was still a bit nerve-wracking. (I ended up basically breaking even for the remainder of the session, btw)