Craps: to hop or not to hop

[alphastorm]

I found this posted all over the internet.

"Tip: You can bet a 3-way Seven Hop for a higher payoff than an any seven bet!

The Any Seven bet pays only 4:1 so if you bet $6 you only get $24 back. However, you can get more back if you use a 3-way seven hop bet instead. A $6 bet will give you $2 on each way of rolling seven - 3&4, 6&1 and 2&5. Since this bet pays 15:1 instead of 4:1, you'll initially win $30 instead of $24. Both the hop bet and the Any-Seven bet is a one roll bet."

So I went ahead and did a simple calculation to see if that is true.

(Bet) Hopping all sevens
(3) 15-2=13+1=14
(6) 30-4=26+2=28
(9) 45-6=39+3=42
(12) 60-8=52+4=56
(15) 75-10=65+5=70

(ex: $3 is the intial bet($1 for each set of 7s). You win $15 but you need to minus the other $2 lost. So you have $13+1(which you get back for winning)= $14)

(Bet) Any Seven - 4 to 1 payout
(3) 12+3=15
(6) 24+6=30
(9) 36+9=45
(12) 48+12=60
(15) 60+15=75

The final total includes your intial bet that you get back when won. As you can see, the total is higher for the any seven bet. So how is hopping sevens better than just betting on the any sevens bet? Why are all these people hopping sevens instead of betting on any seven? I must be missing something here. Someone please enlighten me.

[shadroch]

Craps is not my game but it seems that in example 1 you are betting something that comes up 1 out of every 18 times,but are getting paid 15-1 for it,while in the second bet,you are betting something that comes up on 1 out of 6 times but are getting paid only 4-1 on it.
If you played thru all 36 combinations at $1 a bet,you would win 6 bets for $90,but lose 102 bets with the first method. Net results $12 loss on $108 put in action.
With the second,you would win 6 bets for $24,but lose $30 on 30 losing bets.
Net loss $6 on $36 put in action.

IF my math is right(it rarely is) the first bet is the better bet of the two,but they both are terrible bets.You are losing well over $10 for every $100 wagered.Thats in the neighborhood of a bad slot payout.
IF my math is right.

[ChefJJ]

Shadroch, your math is pretty much on. From a house edge comparison, the Big Red, Any Seven, etc. bet has a hefty 16.67% while the Hop is 11.11%. I also agree with the analysis...they both suck.

IF you were able to limit the dice throw to rotating on one axis, and that pre-set made up the "Hardways Set", there would be a possible 4 ways to roll the seven...out of 16 possibilities (25% chance). And IF you were so good that you could keep the dice on axis every single time, these bets would be a bit more attractive:

ANY 7: 25% player edge
HOP 7s: 112.5% player edge
(PS - you would not bet the 1-6 hopping since the Hardways Set keeps the 1-6 on the rotating axis "z-axis" of both dice)

But we should probably be more realistic (controlling every roll is comical) and say that if you could keep the dice on axis 1 in every 3 rolls, the long-run math says that the Hop Bet (2-5 and 3-4 only) would still return an advantage for the player...the Any 7 drops off at this point:

ANY 7: -2.8%
HOP 7s: 30.1%

As the skill of the dice controller drops off, the Any 7 bet gets closer and closer to that -16.67% edge. However, the Hop Bet still is appetizing when the skill is 1 in 5 or even 1 in 10 rolls on axis:

1 in 5 HOP 7s: 13.6%
1 in 10 HOP 7s: 1.3%

So...these are definitely bad bets. But if you do have a moderate amout of skill in influencing the dice to stay on a prescribed axis, hopping the 2-5 or 3-4 on a come-out roll with a pre-set like the Hardways Set could be profitable. A $2 investment.

good luck

PS - Sorry for steering way off course, but you can take it for what it's worth.

[bj bob]

[QUOTE=alphastorm;64669]I found this posted all over the internet.

"Tip: You can bet a 3-way Seven Hop for a higher payoff than an any seven bet!

The Any Seven bet pays only 4:1 so if you bet $6 you only get $24 back. However, you can get more back if you use a 3-way seven hop bet instead. A $6 bet will give you $2 on each way of rolling seven - 3&4, 6&1 and 2&5. Since this bet pays 15:1 instead of 4:1, you'll initially win $30 instead of $24. Both the hop bet and the Any-Seven bet is a one roll bet."

It seems that everyone's missing the actual mechanics here as the original premise is in fact correct. Here's why:

Bet I: Any 7
$6 total investment. Payoff 4:1. Result $24 win PLUS $6 initial bet recoup= $30 handed back to you after roll.
Bet II: Three way hop
$6 total investment. Payoff 15:1. Result $30 win PLUS $2 initial bet recoup= $32 handed back to you after roll.

Net difference: Hop bet renders +$2 more for same initial investment on same one-roll number. Both bets suck, but one sucks less.

[ChefJJ]

Bob-

I think we may be evaluating the bets from a couple different angles, even though everybody is pretty much arriving at the same conclusion...they do stink.

I used the edge of the bets, which weighs the long-run ratio of the winning amount to the amount at risk with the proportions of winning and losing. The "recoup" of the bets is somewhat inconsequential...any winning bet on the craps table can be kept up or taken down, with the exception of odds bets.

Whether you calculate it as a $1 Hop on the 1-6 or as a $6 Hop the Sevens, it all carries a hefty 11.11% house edge.

It's definitely all good...and all the same. The Pass Line at the comeout is the best way to take advantage of the 7. Eight ways to win vs. four ways to lose.

good luck

[bj bob]

Originally Posted by ChefJJ

Bob-

I think we may be evaluating the bets from a couple different angles, even though everybody is pretty much arriving at the same conclusion...they do stink.

I used the edge of the bets, which weighs the long-run ratio of the winning amount to the amount at risk with the proportions of winning and losing. The "recoup" of the bets is somewhat inconsequential...any winning bet on the craps table can be kept up or taken down, with the exception of odds bets.

Whether you calculate it as a $1 Hop on the 1-6 or as a $6 Hop the Sevens, it all carries a hefty 11.11% house edge.

It's definitely all good...and all the same. The Pass Line at the comeout is the best way to take advantage of the 7. Eight ways to win vs. four ways to lose.

good luck

Wow! You're getting existential on me here, JJ. While wer're on the same page as far as the HA is concerned, I still can't see how these two bets are identical. In both cases you are placing the exact amount at risk for one roll and to attain the same number, the only difference is that the "Any 7" is a "pool" of all sevens while the 3-way hop is playing all the combinations of the same pool individually. The end result, however, is different by $2. Thus, there must be some difference in the edge, no?

[ChefJJ]

Originally Posted by bj bob

Wow! You're getting existential on me here, JJ. While wer're on the same page as far as the HA is concerned, I still can't see how these two bets are identical. In both cases you are placing the exact amount at risk for one roll and to attain the same number, the only difference is that the "Any 7" is a "pool" of all sevens while the 3-way hop is playing all the combinations of the same pool individually. The end result, however, is different by $2. Thus, there must be some difference in the edge, no?

I probably came across kinda confusing Bob...the Any 7 has a 16.67% HA, while the Hop "only" has a 11.11% HA. I don't think anybody has said that those bets were equal.

The bets with the same HA are the 3-way Hop 7s and just hopping one 7. I think all of us have been in agreement that the Hop bet is the lesser of the two evils.

good luck

[bj bob]

Originally Posted by ChefJJ

I probably came across kinda confusing Bob...the Any 7 has a 16.67% HA, while the Hop "only" has a 11.11% HA. I don't think anybody has said that those bets were equal.

The bets with the same HA are the 3-way Hop 7s and just hopping one 7. I think all of us have been in agreement that the Hop bet is the lesser of the two evils.

good luck

Roger that!

[Brock Windsor]

Originally Posted by alphastorm

I found this posted all over the internet.
(Bet) Hopping all sevens
(3) 15-2=13+1=14
(6) 30-4=26+2=28
(9) 45-6=39+3=42
(12) 60-8=52+4=56
(15) 75-10=65+5=70
(ex: $3 is the intial bet($1 for each set of 7s). You win $15 but you need to minus the other $2 lost. So you have $13+1(which you get back for winning)= $14)
(Bet) Any Seven - 4 to 1 payout
(3) 12+3=15
(6) 24+6=30
(9) 36+9=45
(12) 48+12=60
(15) 60+15=75

..please enlighten me.

Your math on the 3way hop bet mistakenly subtracts the losing bets twice. Your $2 on the table loses, and then you again subtract $2 from your $15 winnings. Say you only have $3 in front of you to gamble and place a 3way 7 hop. The 7 hits. You immediately get paid $15 for your win, you then take down your remaining $1 hop bet. You now have $16 in front of you. The same bet on the any7 results in $15 in front of you.

If you must bet the 7 a slightly better bet with lower house edge is laying a $78 10 or 4 in a house that rounds down commission. This bet wins 6 ways, loses 3 ways, can be taken down at ANY time, and has a house edge of only 1.27%. Make sure you know how your table handles commissions before you start dropping money down on lay/buy bets though, many places are different. All this info assumes the outcome of each roll is random.
BW

[ChefJJ]

Originally Posted by Brock Windsor

If you must bet the 7 a slightly better bet with lower house edge is laying a $78 10 or 4 in a house that rounds down commission. This bet wins 6 ways, loses 3 ways, can be taken down at ANY time, and has a house edge of only 1.27%. Make sure you know how your table handles commissions before you start dropping money down on lay/buy bets though, many places are different. All this info assumes the outcome of each roll is random.
BW

I have honestly never made a lay bet...but I have bought a 4 or 10 when my point is out there. That being said, do you find it important to make the buy/lay bets only at houses that do not charge the commission up front?