Is it true?

[FUHGEDABOUDIT]

I read or heard somewhere that a good card counter should win two out of three sessions. True?

[Sonny]

That sounds pretty far off, although it depends on how long his sessions are. For a 1-hour session a decent counter will have around a 52% chance of being ahead. If he plays 10-hour sessions then he will be closer to 3-out-of-5 winning sessions.

-Sonny-

[InPlay]

Originally Posted by FUHGEDABOUDIT

I read or heard somewhere that a good card counter should win two out of three sessions. True?

Don't know about that. First 5 years I NEVER had a losing year. The last 2 nothing but downhill. So figure the math? The only thing that matters to me is the bottom line and mine is still a plus! I remember I had one streak of 18 winning sessions in a row. The losing streaks you want to forget. 60 months of + minus 24 months of - = + 36 months = 71.4% of the time a +.

[toastblows]

Originally Posted by InPlay

Don't know about that. First 5 years I NEVER losing had a year. The last 2 nothing but downhill. So figure the math? The only thing that matters to me is the bottom line and mine is still a plus! I remember I had one streak of 18 winning sessions in a row. The losing streaks you want to forget.

no kidding, because 1 losing session usually wipes out about 10 winning sessions....

[InPlay]

Originally Posted by toastblows

no kidding, because 1 losing session usually wipes out about 10 winning sessions....

Depends on how long those session are. When I first started I used to play to make a days wages. Short and Sweet. Last 2 years have been longer sessions maybe thats why I am losing? Seems like I am up always at the start then its downhill from there. I used to treat it as a business before.

[BJinNJ]

Let me see if I can find the reference.
No guarantees, but I did read it.

I thought it was in Bluebook II or Blackbelt, but maybe not.
When I read 2 of 3, I presumed it was an approximation.
Maybe 64-65% is closer.

BJinNJ

[BJinNJ]

I skimmed Bluebook II but the only thing I could find was a small
table in the Kiss II/III section comparing 100 hr. win rates for
various counts including Kiss, KO and Hi/Lo. These win rates
were all in the 60-65% range.(nearly 2 of 3)

I also went through Blackbelt, without success. I also recently
referred to Million Dollar BJ, so I looked there, too. No luck.

Then I tried Gamemaster's BJ school. No luck.
I also went thru BJ Blueprint. No luck.

It just seems to me that I read, somewhere, that about 2 out of
3 sessions should be winners, or you need to re-evaluate the
games you choose to play, your skills, etc.

Maybe it was just an article somewhere. I doubt that it was in
BJA3, which is the book I'm currently reading.

If I see it again, I'll definitely make a note and try to post it here.
There are alot of little details like this that slip thru the cracks, while
engrossed in reading about this game.

BJinNJ

[SystemsTrader]

Originally Posted by FUHGEDABOUDIT

I read or heard somewhere that a good card counter should win two out of three sessions. True?

I would think that's about right. I believe it was Schlesinger who said, but don't quote me on this that a counter should win somewhere between 55% and 65% of his sessions. I guess it also comes down to how you define a session? For myself my solo play has yielded a 66% session win rate which is right on the 2 out of 3 mark and my team play results are at 57%.

[QFIT]

Interesting question. I put up an answer at http://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackvariance3.htm. Basically, Sonny's numbers are right.

[ihate17]

If I take 30 years of AP and count it as 30 sessions, then I am winning 77% of sessions. If I took the first 5 years and throw them away, calling it my long term learning curve, then I am winning 84% of my sessions.

Without counting up every single (session), if 30 minutes or several hours, my best guestimate would be something in the area between 55%-60%, but I am not sure that these numbers mean anything, as I note that cardcounters who are still learning tend to have long sessions with big losses quite often which can destroy the wins of many short sessions.

ihate17