Card-Counting Movie Moving Forward

[zengrifter]

HOLLYWOOD NEWS

Director to Take on 'Bringing Down the House,' Likely Abandoning
Planned J.Lo Vehicle 'Dallas'

March 22, 2006
By Tatiana Siegel

The planned adaptation of Ben Mezrich's bestselling nonfiction book Bringing Down the House: The Inside Story of Six M.I.T. Students Who Took Vegas for Millions—re-dubbed 21—is finally (once again) moving forward in development. Monster-in-Law and Legally Blonde helmer Robert Luketic is in final negotiations to direct the Columbia production.

21 revolves around a group of young men who become experts in the art of card-counting.

The director, who had been prepping to direct the big-screen version of the '80s soap Dallas, reportedly to star Jennifer Lopez, for Regency Enterprises/20th Century Fox, likely would make 21 his next project. It is unclear how Luketic's negotiations with Columbia will affect his involvement in Dallas or the ongoing casting of the ensemble film.

The project has attracted several high-profile directors, including Shawn Levy and Brett Ratner. Ratner signed on in 2004 to direct the movie, then titled Breaking Vegas. Ratner walked away from the project to take on X-Men 3, with helming duties passed on the Levy, director of Cheaper by the Dozen, who later turned instead to the Steve Martin remake of The Pink Panther.

Kevin Spacey optioned the rights to Mezrich's book, through MGM, in 2002 after reading an excerpt of it in Playboy. He and his Trigger Street Prod. partner Dana Brunetti are producing the film, which was penned by Peter Steinfeld and Allan Loeb. Spacey has reportedly been eyeing the role of the students' real-life professor.

Sony's Elizabeth Cantillon and DeVon Franklin are overseeing for the studio.

Luketic is repped by CAA, Mosaic Media and attorney Alan Hergott.

[SystemsTrader]

Is a movie like this good or bad for us card counters? I think its probably bad as it will just bring more attention to what we do especially with all the wannabes who are going to be showing up at the casinos thinking they will convert their $200 into a million! Penetration will probably get a whole lot worse after the movie comes out.

[Cass]

Originally Posted by SystemsTrader

Is a movie like this good or bad for us card counters? I think its probably bad as it will just bring more attention to what we do especially with all the wannabes who are going to be showing up at the casinos thinking they will convert their $200 into a million! Penetration will probably get a whole lot worse after the movie comes out.

I agree. You think the games are bad now? Wait til this movie comes out if it makes it big I think it will affect the game a lot. Better make some money while we still can! Take out another mortgage on the house quick!

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by SystemsTrader

...especially with all the wannabes who are going to be showing up at the casinos thinking they will convert their $200 into a million! Penetration will probably get a whole lot worse after the movie comes out.

I think it will have the opposite effect. I agree that the casinos will be flooded with wannabe counters, but that will make it easier for us. They will get used to seeing terrible players varying their bets all the time, which is what makes us stick out so much. We will be able to blend in with the wannabes very easily, and most pit bosses will probably think that we are just wannabes as well.

As far as penetration goes, the casinos know that dealing deeper into the deck is more profitable for them. The reason they don’t is because they are afraid of a few card counters winning a few dollars from them. If they see huge crowds of wannabes playing, they might consider dealing a little deeper to make them lose their money faster.

Seriously, everyone at the tables THINKS they know how to play! Right? We’ve all had people complain to us when we hit a 12 vs. 2 or hit A7 vs. 9 even though it is the correct play. For every REAL card counter out there, there are at least 999 BAD counters who are standing on 15 vs. 7 because “the count is pretty high” (but not nearly high enough) or doubling on a hard 5 vs. 2-6 (sound familiar? ). On top of that are the John Patrick players and the other “system” players who lose their shirts because they don’t know how to play. Even most of the good card counters will not have a big enough bankroll or not understand variance and ROR. Those poor guys will be playing a winning game but will go broke during their first bad losing streak.

In my opinion, this movie will just encourage more stupid players to go to casinos and lose their money. The main benefit is that the stupid players will start to look more like us, which will make camouflage much easier!

-Sonny-

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by Sonny

For every REAL card counter out there, there are at least 999 BAD counters who are standing on 15 vs. 7 because “the count is pretty high” (but not nearly high enough) or doubling on a hard 5 vs. 2-6 (sound familiar? ).

Cheap shot! The dealer was breaking that day! zg

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by zengrifter

Cheap shot! The dealer was breaking that day! zg

My mistake. I didn't realize that the dealer was cold , the table was hot , the player was on a streak, it was a non-random player-biased shuffle , and the ashtrays hadn't been emptied. :D

-Sonny-

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by Sonny

... and the ashtrays hadn't been emptied. :D

As my famous ex-associate, Adrian Cronuar, used to tell me: If you are catching flack you must be on TARGET! zg

[Gregory]

Originally Posted by SystemsTrader

Is a movie like this good or bad for us card counters? I think its probably bad as it will just bring more attention to what we do especially with all the wannabes who are going to be showing up at the casinos thinking they will convert their $200 into a million! Penetration will probably get a whole lot worse after the movie comes out.

Tough call. The casinos may freak like they did when Beat The Dealer came out. If so, I guess we can expect to see them creating games that are basically impossible to win.
Or alternatively, they may thank the movie for sending so many fish to their tables and not change a thing.
I'm tending to lean towards Sonny's thinking on it: The casinos will enjoy a sudden surge in blackjack revenue with wannabee counters still losing at the same house percentage (or worse). The casinos will have no reason to change anything, and a few real counters in the mix won't put much of a dent in their larger than normal coffers.

[Mikeaber]

Don't you guys think that history will likely repeat? I mean, when "Beat The Dealer" did come out, there were a lot who attempted it and failed miserably simply because they didn't perfect the skills. Of those who do, I'd be surprised if many get far enough beyond "-1 and +1" to find that the BR they need is far beyond what they have. Not too many who are likely to hit the casinos for two or three weekends a year are going to put forth the effort or money to have any chance of making anything out of it.

I think the movie will have very little impact on anything other than as a flick to be reviewed by comparring it to the book just like "da Vinci Code" is being curxified by quasi experts right now.

[TENNBEAR]

I think the movie and televised BJ tournaments will draw more players to the Blackjack tables. I think the casino industry is well aware of the advantage player and how few really successful card counters out there. If the casino's think that card counting was any real threat to them they would have already changed all tables to continous shuffle machines.
The fact is they are making more money off the wannabee card counters. We already know that perfect basic stategy gives the casino's a very small edge, that their real profits come from players who have no disipline, overbetting, and supertision. We have to respect the fact that to learn card counting to the level where you make any real money, requires more effort than most would be card counters are willing to sacrifice.