Someone please De-Bunk this system before I take out a second mortgage

[AsparaChief]

Scenario: Sit down at a $5 table with $200. Let’s estimate the odds against you at .55. The probability of losing two hands in a row is: (.55) (.55) = (.55) ^2 = .3025,
3 in a row = (.55) ^3 = .166375, etc.

If you lost every time, and at each loss you doubled you bet (to hopefully cover your loss and return to even) your bets would look like: 5, 5, 10, 20, 40, 80 (total = 160) before you had exhausted your bankroll. But the probability of losing 5 hands in a row is only: (.55) ^5 = .05032, or 5 %. In other words, you have a 95% chance of avoiding a 5-hand losing streak.

The same probability works against winning 5 consecutive hands. But I play online, and it’s easy to stand up and bank your winnings. So I get $20 or $30 ahead using flat betting, stand up with the profit, and then sit down again with my original buy in. As long as you have the money to cover 5 losses this seems to work. What am I missing?

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by AsparaChief

What am I missing?

What you are missing is... IT DOESN'T WORK! FOGGITABOUTIT! Cape'ce? zg

[LeonShuffle]

Chief, just try it for a while with play money. You'll see what we mean.

[Mikeaber]

Folks, here's the problem with Negative Progressions. It is very common for a player to play for quite a while using them before they up and bite him. I think that's why we get so many posts indicating the reinvention of this killer progression.

But, it only takes once where a player get's caught up in the progression and has $1000 out on the table trying to recover a double loss of only $10. It's going to take a LONG time to recover that $1000 loss playing $5 a hand.

[aussiecounter]

Can we get a sticky thread in the Betting Strategies about this? Titled something like: "The Martingale: Read this before you start thinking you've found a money tree", and have a little explaination of Negative progressions and why they dont work.
It seems like most of the threads in this section are from newbies on that topic. I admit to being among them, what seems like a long time ago.

[bullseyeguy]

Ive found that negative progressions can work if you cap your bets. I cap at 320 making an initial bet of 5, and seem to do ok, if you hit a losing streak it sucks, but it just means youll take longer to get back to where you were.

[bullseyeguy]

Originally Posted by LeonShuffle

Chief, just try it for a while with play money. You'll see what we mean.

I started out with 100 on yahoo, am up to 25000 using a cut off at 320 neghaitve progression straegy.

[aussiecounter]

Originally Posted by bullseyeguy

I started out with 100 on yahoo, am up to 25000 using a cut off at 320 neghaitve progression straegy.

Bull$%!t! I do not believe you!

[bullseyeguy]

Originally Posted by aussiecounter

Bull$%!t! I do not believe you!

I couldnt care less if you beleive me, its the truth.

[aussiecounter]

Originally Posted by bullseyeguy

I couldnt care less if you beleive me, its the truth.

Geez, I was going to go into an in depth explaination/rant about why Martingale won't work, but I've decided to take the $180 I have in my wallet and go to the casino. I'll chat to you guys tomorrow, after I've won my nearly $50000.