Next shoe to drop: Prime mortgages
The credit crunch is cutting a broad swath across the economy, and it's hard to know how far it will go. That's because for years, the housing bubble was the heart of the economy.
By
Bill Fleckenstein
Several years ago, I sketched out a thesis called "
The Next Time Down." Its onset took a bit longer than I had expected (like about three years) due to the lunacy in the credit markets. However, "the next time down" is essentially the situation in which we now find ourselves.
According to a friend I've dubbed the "Lord of the Dark Matter," credit is rapidly being withdrawn across a broad spectrum -- especially for the major brokers, giants like
Goldman Sachs (
GS,
news,
msgs) and
Citigroup (
C,
news,
msgs), which have served as enormous financial intermediaries. This is now raising the costs for nearly all credit-oriented hedge funds. And, my friend said, the pace of massive de-leveraging could accelerate further. That in all likelihood would feed on itself.
Lift a rock, find more schlock
I believe the next area of the credit sector to implode will likely be Alt-A -- loans granted to people who didn't want to document their income, also known as liar loans -- which will help illuminate the fact that our mortgage problems were never just subprime. Rather, they sprang from one big credit bubble, thanks to which mortgages were handed out to anyone who could fog a mirror. Most people took on more than they should have. (Some are now walking away from their obligations, a development recently highlighted in the media.)
In time, it will be clear that prime mortgages are also vulnerable.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...Mortgages.aspx