Simple, but winning.

[davidmcclung]

Since we know that betting schemes do not work for the non-counter, my latest flat betting has been winning for the last 6 sessions and is sooo simple: Playing double deck with good old fashioned rules, buy in for $600 and play $25 per hand flat betting which is 24 units. When winning $100+ at the end of the shoe(although no shoe involved but gets the point across), then quit the session. Most have been down to date is about 15 units. I wonder what the odds are of getting ahead 4 units playing with 24 units playing perfect basic strategy with good double deck rules, it has to be favorable based on my experience to date.

[Mimosine]

Originally Posted by davidmcclung

it has to be favorable based on my experience to date.

this is an anecdote it is evidence of nothing other than a few sessions worth of results. on each and every hand of blackjack you play without an edge you have a bigger chance of losing than winning. so given this FACT how will your strategy ever net money in the long run? because you always quit when you're ahead..... right, i forgot about that.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by davidmcclung

I wonder what the odds are of getting ahead 4 units playing with 24 units playing perfect basic strategy...

Roughly 85%. Unfortunately, the other 15% of the time you will lose more than that, possibly all 24 units. The majority of the time you will win a little money but the occasional big losses will take away all your winnings. Think about it: If you only win 4 units per session, it will only take 1 ruinous session to erase the past 6 winning sessions.

This is a good system for people who want to win small amounts of money frequently but won’t be frustrated when they lose it all back very quickly. Basically, anyone with a positive progression mindset will enjoy this.

-Sonny-

[davidmcclung]

So my actual average win to date has been $120 with above playing rules(quitting at the end of the double deck shoe when $100 or more winning), so $120 x 8.5 equals $1020, and expected average losses of 1.5 x $600 equals $900, so net win of $120. Net Win is the key word here, if it holds true.

[Sonny]

You should expect to win $100 85% of the time and lose $600 15% of the time. That’s a net loss of $5 per session. I would guess that your average session length will be about 40 hands.

-Sonny-

[davidmcclung]

Was a typical session, played about half an hour total, just me and one other player. For me at this point in my career it is just about the winning, not playing for the fun of it anymore and do not enjoy long sessions. Tonight, at the end of my last shoe was plus $137.50, so terminated the session. That was the first time I ended the shoe(double deck hand shuffled) where I was up the mandatory $100 or more. Was down at the worse about 5 units, and before the last shoe was winning between at the most $50 and $75 at the end of the prior shoes, the last shoe put me over, luckily, or was it luck?. Most sessions during the night we are up 4 or more units at the end of the shoe, if playing double deck with good rules, not always, but at least 85% of the time I would guess per Sonny's figures.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by davidmcclung

For me at this point in my career it is just about the winning, not playing for the fun of it anymore and do not enjoy long sessions.

I think this system will work well for you. You will win the majority of your sessions, which seems to be your goal, and your sessions should be pretty short. As long as you can handle the losing sessions where you lose your money back you should be fine. If you can wrangle some comps out of the casino or take advantage of some promotions then you could be close to break-even in the end. Most importantly, have fun and enjoy yourself.

-Sonny-

[davidmcclung]

Can now lose 2 straight sessions and still be even, as still undefeated after 10 sessions. And per Sonny's math, I am overdue for a session loss. The trick here is to have the self discipline to quit at $100 as $100 is the key win figure at the end of the two deck shoe. Often, I will be winning slightly more, about $125 at the end of the shoe, when I reach the $100 stop play figure, but do continue playing until the end of the shoe for best results, then quit the session if at least $100 winning for session. Afterall, $100 tax free is still a lot of money for most often only a few minutes of play at $25 per hand, and I will sometimes play 2 sessions per day trip. Although losses will no doubt occurr in the future which will average down the win rate. For you noncounters who are serious about walking out a winner, I can now absolutely recommend this simple scheme of play, as it has worked so well after extended play to date. It is not a particularly fun way to play, but fun progression or regression schemes, even card counting, have not performed nearly as well for me with much more risk. It is not easy to find a 10 straight winner scheme, as many of us know, will advise furthur after another 10 sessions. I like to give it a full 100 sessions if it continues a net winner, for a more thorough evaluation before increasing my betting levels.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by davidmcclung

And per Sonny's math, I am overdue for a session loss.

You’re not overdue for anything. There are several threads in this forum that explain exactly why this is not true. I’ve often wondered if people read the other threads in this forum. It’s a shame that most people don’t want to learn from other people’s mistakes.

You have won money during your past sessions. That money is yours to keep. Enjoy it. In the future you should expect to lose .5% of all your action. If you play long enough then you will eventually drain your winnings and your bankroll. Although there will be large negative swings in the future, you should not assume that they are overdue because of your past results. The only thing you should expect is to slowly lose it all back.

Originally Posted by davidmcclung

Afterall, $100 tax free is still a lot of money for most often only a few minutes of play at $25 per hand, and I will sometimes play 2 sessions per day trip.

That money is not tax free! It is still considered income so you need to report it on your tax forms. In fact, gambling winnings are taxed at a much higher rate than standard income. They also do not qualify for social security, 401k or other tax deferred benefits. The money that you win in a casino is often worth much less than money you earn as “legitimate” income.

Originally Posted by davidmcclung

For you noncounters who are serious about walking out a winner, I can now absolutely recommend this simple scheme of play, as it has worked so well after extended play to date.

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Hold on there. You can’t possibly consider 10 sessions to be “extended play” by any means, especially with the short session you are playing. That’s only an average of 400 hands. That’s completely meaningless. You even said that you were expecting a negative swing that will reduce your average earnings. How can you say that your results are reliable after you admit that they are not accurate? I’m glad that you’ve had success so far, but you can’t encourage other people to use this system if you don’t know how it works.

Originally Posted by davidmcclung

It is not easy to find a 10 straight winner scheme, as many of us know…

Actually it’s very easy to win 10 straight sessions, especially when your sessions are as short as yours are. And since your goal is only 4 units it is very easy to win very quickly. You could use almost any system and still have a reasonable chance of being ahead. In fact, if you were flat betting during those sessions then you were winning the majority of those hands. Pretty much any system will win if you are winning most of your hands. The true test of a system will be how it performs during an average session. We already know that an average session will lose 0.5% of the money you bet, but I guess you want to find that our for yourself.

-Sonny-

[davidmcclung]

Very few blackjack players playing this game have won their latest 10 sessions with their current scheme, I can assure you and would have done much better with flat betting on double deck with a minimal win goal, and frankly I am surprised that I have with this simple scheme. Although my wins may be small by some standards, $100-$125 range, it is the cumulative net result that matters. What I have determined for me is that I need 24 units flat betting, not too much that wipes out the net wins, but enough for a real good chance of a session win based on the normal ups and downs of a typical session playing at a double deck with good rules. And the four unit win standard is another critical component, not too much but enough for a decent win, as too high a win goal is too much risk. Along with playing until the end of the shoe that allows for a $100+ session win although it does carry slightly more overall risk. Now all of these factors combined, I may just be on to something positive here after playing it for an estimated 10 hrs of actual gaming over 10 sessions which is enough to give me some confidence in the results thusfar, as had a few 3 hr sessions although many are short sessions which is a good thing. So will continue to march on, damn the torpedoes. As most of us already know, gambling is inherently high risk, we can only hope to minimize the risk to give us the maximum chance of a session win.