Why is the count usually negative?

[runningaces]

I can't figure this out using the hi-lo, there is the same number of cards in the deck 2-6 and 10-ace 789=0. I sit and wait patiently when playing, but when practicing and at casino the count is usually negative why is this? I'm sure it's simple, thanks in advance.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by runningaces

I can't figure this out using the hi-lo, there is the same number of cards in the deck 2-6 and 10-ace 789=0. I sit and wait patiently when playing, but when practicing and at casino the count is usually negative why is this? I'm sure it's simple, thanks in advance.

it isn't really. it probably just seems that way because of our awareness that true counts of zero and even those close to plus one but not quite are relatively useless to us. so we are seeing positive counts circa 25% of the time and the crap zero and negative circa 75% of the time.
then to where you have streaks of negative counts it probably just seems to exaserbate the perception.

[rukus]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

it isn't really.

in fact, the percentage of time that we see a given positive running count is exaclty the same as the percentage of time we see the opposite negative running count. it is pretty much the same thing with TCs but this is affected by how you estimate decks remaining and also how you calc true count (ie round, floor, truncate).

check out one of the graphs at www.blackjackincolor.com (thanks Norm!), there is a section called something like "how often each true count is seen" if i recall correctly. there you will see the symmetry of the true counts.

[bj bob]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

it isn't really. it probably just seems that way because of our awareness that true counts of zero and even those close to plus one but not quite are relatively useless to us. so we are seeing positive counts circa 25% of the time and the crap zero and negative circa 75% of the time.
then to where you have streaks of negative counts it probably just seems to exaserbate the perception.

Exactly Fr0gman,

It's simply the difference between betable counts versus minimum bet counts, so we don't have much, if any action on most of the hands in a shoe and so the illusion.