Questions (i am new) sorry...

[Alythezon]

Hello everyone,
I would just like to introduce myself as a new player who is excited for blackjack. I will tell a little backstory about myself etc. If you want to just get to my questions go to the bottom of the post. I was an avid poker player absorbing everything i could about the game. I went to the casino and was about a break even/ losing poker player. I just could not stand the plays that the other players made sometimes. They would do very bad plays and end up getting paid off like strikining a 2 pair on the river and they were calling me down with bottom pair when i had top pair top kick. I was a math guy and applied my edges when i could but i just did not get dealt enough profitable hands and then when i did the cards didnt connect.
Ok sorry about that. To blackjack. anyway I used to think that all blackjack players were dumb because the casino had the edge and being the math guy that i was i didnt want to put my money down on something i could not control. Anyway I have a couple of buddies who are doing pretty well. I looked online about it and realize that over the shorterm you can win etc. So i look into BS and card counting. I practice a little bit and head to the casino. I try to count cards and it works somewhat. Sometimes i lose the count though unfortunately.
Well anyway i really would like to try to be good at blackjack and have been trying to learn as much as i can about the game. I read through the first couple of pages of these forums so i hope i dont repeat too many questions. I am very excited about the game of black jack and the promise it may hold. As well as the challenge as well as the reward for playing well. :D

Questions:
1. In regard to basic stratagey i "seem" to disagree with it sometimes. call me a ploppy but when the chart says to hit against a dealers 7 when you have a 16. I try to use the TC to make my decision at this point but BS says to hit but i dont understand why. If somone could explain it to me i think then that would solve my problems. or when you should hit your 12 against a 2 or 3 but stay up to a 7 which makes sense but why hit against a 2 or 3?

2. When i have tried to apply card counting skills etc. Most of the night when i went up the shoes were quite unfavorable (im playing a 6 shoe game, bj pays 3 to 2 dealer hits soft 17...) I dont vary my bets and end up losing because the shoe is so negative and i just dont have any opportunity to bet big or do anything so i get whiddled away.

3. How much "Dumb luck" is involved even when applying bs and ccing?

4. which is better when ccing, counting the individual cards or pairing them up and just looking for the net count of the hand?

5. Since i am just playing at local indian casino's is there anything that i should be aware of as far as heat wise i dont think anyone will even notice me.

Umm. Thanks for putting up with these questions and any advice would be appreciated. Thanks all.

[shadroch]

1) BS is not count dependant.It is based on a neutral deck. When the count is skewed either direction,the proper play is different from BS. These departures are called indices. There are hundreds,but the top 18 cover the vast majority of hands.
2) I don't see a question here.
3) a bit
4) whatever works best for you. Most people do 2 at a time,so they tend to cancel each other out

5)I don't play Indian casinos so I can't say

[godeem23]

Originally Posted by Alythezon

Hello everyone,
I would just like to introduce myself as a new player who is excited for blackjack. I will tell a little backstory about myself etc. If you want to just get to my questions go to the bottom of the post. I was an avid poker player absorbing everything i could about the game. I went to the casino and was about a break even/ losing poker player. I just could not stand the plays that the other players made sometimes. They would do very bad plays and end up getting paid off like strikining a 2 pair on the river and they were calling me down with bottom pair when i had top pair top kick. I was a math guy and applied my edges when i could but i just did not get dealt enough profitable hands and then when i did the cards didnt connect.
Ok sorry about that. To blackjack. anyway I used to think that all blackjack players were dumb because the casino had the edge and being the math guy that i was i didnt want to put my money down on something i could not control. Anyway I have a couple of buddies who are doing pretty well. I looked online about it and realize that over the shorterm you can win etc. So i look into BS and card counting. I practice a little bit and head to the casino. I try to count cards and it works somewhat. Sometimes i lose the count though unfortunately.
Well anyway i really would like to try to be good at blackjack and have been trying to learn as much as i can about the game. I read through the first couple of pages of these forums so i hope i dont repeat too many questions. I am very excited about the game of black jack and the promise it may hold. As well as the challenge as well as the reward for playing well. :D

Questions:
1. In regard to basic stratagey i "seem" to disagree with it sometimes. call me a ploppy but when the chart says to hit against a dealers 7 when you have a 16. I try to use the TC to make my decision at this point but BS says to hit but i dont understand why. If somone could explain it to me i think then that would solve my problems. or when you should hit your 12 against a 2 or 3 but stay up to a 7 which makes sense but why hit against a 2 or 3?

2. When i have tried to apply card counting skills etc. Most of the night when i went up the shoes were quite unfavorable (im playing a 6 shoe game, bj pays 3 to 2 dealer hits soft 17...) I dont vary my bets and end up losing because the shoe is so negative and i just dont have any opportunity to bet big or do anything so i get whiddled away.

3. How much "Dumb luck" is involved even when applying bs and ccing?

4. which is better when ccing, counting the individual cards or pairing them up and just looking for the net count of the hand?

5. Since i am just playing at local indian casino's is there anything that i should be aware of as far as heat wise i dont think anyone will even notice me.

Umm. Thanks for putting up with these questions and any advice would be appreciated. Thanks all.

1. Mathematics. That's it. Your EV is higher when hitting a 16 vs 7 than it is when you stand. Same with a 12 vs 2 or 3. Trust the math. It doesn't lie.

2. Yep, that happens. Try backcounting.

3. Your short term gain or loss will be determined almost entirely by "dumb luck." However as the number of hands increases the variance ("dumb luck") decreases and your actual earnings will more closely resemble your expected earnings.

4. Depends what you're more comfortable with. Some say that counting pairs is better because if you count individual cards you will be more easily spotted because you'll be constantly staring at the cards as they're dealt. I'd recommend counting pairs.

5. Can't help you with this one, sorry.

[QFIT]

Originally Posted by Alythezon

1. In regard to basic stratagey i "seem" to disagree with it sometimes. call me a ploppy but when the chart says to hit against a dealers 7 when you have a 16. I try to use the TC to make my decision at this point but BS says to hit but i dont understand why. If somone could explain it to me i think then that would solve my problems. or when you should hit your 12 against a 2 or 3 but stay up to a 7 which makes sense but why hit against a 2 or 3?

Below is the chart of advantage by true count for 16v7:



Basically, you're screwed. At a TC of zero, you will lose 42 cents for every dollar bet if you hit and 48 cents per dollar bet if you stand. Standing will probably lose with a 16 but hitting will probably bust. So you stand and lose slightly less often. As the count increases, hitting is more likely to bust and at a high enough count the lines cross indicating that hitting is worse than standing with two many tens in the shoe.

Hitting 12v3 is a quite different chart:



This is still a lousy hand, but not as bad ass 16v7. You are probably going to lose. At TC zero, hitting loses 23 cents of a dollar bet. You probably won't bust, but the dealer probably won't either. Standing is worse with 25 cents lost. But higher counts substantially increase the chance the dealer will bust making stand the correct move where the red line crosses the green line.

More charts like this can be found at http://www.card-counting.com/cvcxonlineviewer3.htm

[vonQuux]

Originally Posted by Alythezon

Hello everyone,

Greets.

Originally Posted by Alythezon

Well anyway i really would like to try to be good at blackjack and have been trying to learn as much as i can about the game.

Here's some of my favorite resources:

Blackjack Strategy Trainer
Allows you to set the # of decks, dealer behavior, doubling, surrender, etc. Even though there isn't a discard pile you can still count since the number of remaining cards is explicitly displayed.

Blackjack Basic Strategy Trainer
It's called the same thing but here you don't play, you just get quizzed on the correct play. I use this extensively and by doing so I've gotten my decisions down to about 2.4 seconds each averaging one mistake every 285 tries. Tedious but very, very useful.

Hit or Stand
Kind of halfway between the previous two tools. You actually play vs. a dealer but you only "win" when you make the right decision. After twenty hands you get a speed round. Less useful but more fun.

Originally Posted by Alythezon

1. In regard to basic stratagey i "seem" to disagree with it sometimes. call me a ploppy but when the chart says to hit against a dealers 7 when you have a 16. I try to use the TC to make my decision at this point but BS says to hit but i dont understand why. If somone could explain it to me i think then that would solve my problems. or when you should hit your 12 against a 2 or 3 but stay up to a 7 which makes sense but why hit against a 2 or 3?

The basic strategy is simply a breakdown of what play is most likely win that hand. Statistically bulletproof sims exist out there that will allow you to play a million hands and see which plays result in the most wins.

TC does influence your play and the "most basic" set of these are called the "Illustrious 18."

Originally Posted by Alythezon

2. When i have tried to apply card counting skills etc. Most of the night when i went up the shoes were quite unfavorable (im playing a 6 shoe game, bj pays 3 to 2 dealer hits soft 17...) I dont vary my bets and end up losing because the shoe is so negative and i just dont have any opportunity to bet big or do anything so i get whiddled away.

I'd suggest wonging out (not playing) shoes where the TC goes below -1. You can't duck out every time but you can always answer a phonecall, hit the bathroom, whatever. Since the house edge is 0.5% if you're playing solid BS, playing even ten hands at -1 at $10/hand will only cost you, on average, fifty cents. ($100 * 0.05).

Originally Posted by Alythezon

3. How much "Dumb luck" is involved even when applying bs and ccing?

I know I'll get some heat for this answer but "absolutely zero." "Dumb luck" certainly factors in for the short term but if you're playing blackjack for a short-term payout, you might be in for a very rude awakening. Since you're grinding out 1-3% over the house using various methods of AP, the only thing you care about is long term.

Put in more prosaic terms, if you flip a coin 10 times, you might very well wind up with one side coming up 8 of those 10 times. But standard deviation dictates that you will never, EVER flip a coin a million times and wind up with heads 80% of the time.

Similarly, if your AP is solid, you will make money and dumb luck will have absolutely nothing to do with your results.

Originally Posted by Alythezon

4. which is better when ccing, counting the individual cards or pairing them up and just looking for the net count of the hand?

You'll probably find just as many people advocating one method over the other. I'd say try both and figure out which works better. Personally, I practice and use both.

Good luck. =)

vQ

[EasyRhino]

Originally Posted by Alythezon

1. In regard to basic stratagey i "seem" to disagree with it sometimes. call me a ploppy but when the chart says to hit against a dealers 7 when you have a 16. I try to use the TC to make my decision at this point but BS says to hit but i dont understand why. If somone could explain it to me i think then that would solve my problems. or when you should hit your 12 against a 2 or 3 but stay up to a 7 which makes sense but why hit against a 2 or 3?

a) Stop being a ploppy, believe the math.
b) in the case of 16,v7, the dealer has a very strong chance of drawing to a pat hand (usually 17, maybe higher). If this happens, you will, of course, lose. However, if you draw a card, and miraculously don't bust, just about ANY card you get (Ace, deuce) will substantially improve your odds vs. the dealer's most likely pat hand (a 17). Since the odds of winning-if-you-don't-bust are decent, that's why it's generally always the rule to hit your 16v7 (qfit, except in a TC of +10? yikes). Contrast this with 16v10, where if you miraculously don't bust, it's still unlikely you'll beat the dealer's most likely hand (20), which is why standing is a better play at only barely positive counts.
c) I think QFIT explained 12v2 aptly, you're not likely to bust, but neither is the dealer (his odds of busting are only like 30%)

2. Most of the night when i went up the shoes were quite unfavorable

Favorable counts are going to be the minority. If you're playing shoe games, try backcounting, and not even sitting at the table until there is a count worth betting at.

3. How much "Dumb luck" is involved even when applying bs and ccing?

A tremendous amount, which, in the short and even medium run, will overwhelm any long-term advantage. I'm told that dumb luck is a bigger factor than in poker or smart sports betting.

4. which is better when ccing, counting the individual cards or pairing them up and just looking for the net count of the hand?

I like to pair when I see pairs, and of course count singletons as they come out.

5. Since i am just playing at local indian casino's is there anything that i should be aware of as far as heat wise i dont think anyone will even notice me.

Every joint is very different, even Indian joints. If you're one of the larger bettors in the pit, look out.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Alythezon

.....1. In regard to basic stratagey i "seem" to disagree with it sometimes. call me a ploppy but when the chart says to hit against a dealers 7 when you have a 16. I try to use the TC to make my decision at this point but BS says to hit but i dont understand why. If somone could explain it to me i think then that would solve my problems. or when you should hit your 12 against a 2 or 3 but stay up to a 7 which makes sense but why hit against a 2 or 3?

..........

ploppy? well maybe but that's not the end of the world. loads of ploppies managed to get themselve's quite wealthy from what i can see. and i think they are just quite naturally trying to use thier minds in the absence of cold hard data or knowledge. data some of which may seem counter intuitive and perhaps even paradoxical at times.
but it would be my guess that your ambivalence regarding certain plays is probably a result of intelligent reasoning that does indeed point to what are known as basic strategy departures. so your not so far off the mark but the thing is it'll be easier and more accurate for you to learn what is already known with regard to when to play basic strategy and when to use basic strategy departure indices. but i applaud your instincts.