Bad Luck or lack of skill puts me Negative!

[Cardcounter]

Earlier this year I was several hundred dollars ahead now for the whole year I'm now $65 behind. It is kind of blow to know that right now I'm behind at blackjack for the year, last year blackjack was the only game that I was ahead of. I think one of my biggest problems is playing for too big of stakes and overbetting.
On Watching breaking vegas the Mit team said that they hit a bad streak on a couple of positive shoes and they ran out of money because of over betting before the shoe ran out of cards and the rest of shoe was really positive.

[EasyRhino]

I've been treading water for six months now.

Might be both.

[TommyMoe21]

Playing at too high of stakes and overbetting are two different things insomuch that one is related to your bankroll and one is dependant on the specific count. Keep in mind that a high count is no guarantee of a win. Some of the worst beatings I've ever taken were on really good counts. Like doubles and splits with high counts and big spreads and the dealer still beats you. If you are confident of your counting, things should even out in time if your bankroll permits. Good Luck!

[Brock Windsor]

I had the same problem. In reality for the stakes I play BJ wasn't worth my time as I didn't have the stomach for full kelly betting...but once you find ways to get a better advantage you can cut that flux down. Presuming you do a lot of backcounting, keep an eye out for flashing dealers.

[la_dee_daa]

Originally Posted by TommyMoe21

Like doubles and splits with high counts and big spreads and the dealer still beats you.

thats how counting started for me

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Cardcounter

Earlier this year I was several hundred dollars ahead now for the whole year I'm now $65 behind. It is kind of blow to know that right now I'm behind at blackjack for the year, last year blackjack was the only game that I was ahead of. I think one of my biggest problems is playing for too big of stakes and overbetting.
On Watching breaking vegas the Mit team said that they hit a bad streak on a couple of positive shoes and they ran out of money because of over betting before the shoe ran out of cards and the rest of shoe was really positive.

well really thats not to bad $65 behind. have you been having fun? i don't mean to sound callous, i think you are probably disappointed. and i can relate to that. probably you've been up a good deal and now back down. so you have my sympathy.
just curious do you have a rock firm max bet or do you vary how much you are willing to bet according to what ever?
i'll say it but you already know it and i've been mistaken to do it as well.
overbetting is one of the most serious mistakes we can make. steaming even worse.
i ask if you were having fun. it was a serious question. that's related to your statement with regard to playing at stakes that are to big. the idea that stakes are to big (beyond nailing down a reasonable big bet with respect to your bankroll and ROR) is personal decision that you must make. it can go a long way to helping you feel better about what ever happens. sure it will still suck to lose money, but if it is with respect to 'stakes' that you have made peace with then it will likely be less of a burden to tolerate.
i might just add from my personal perspective i'm reluctantly able to have fun for the most part with about the lowest max bet's and level of ramp that can give one a chance with the games available to me. even then i know i'd be down in the dumps on a losing streak. but finding my tolerance level (which may be laughable to others) has i truly believe helped me deal with the game psychologicaly.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by Cardcounter

Earlier this year I was several hundred dollars ahead now for the whole year I'm now $65 behind. It is kind of blow to know that right now I'm behind at blackjack for the year, last year blackjack was the only game that I was ahead of. I think one of my biggest problems is playing for too big of stakes and overbetting. .

Well it's a great question. I mean if you can't relate your results to a card-counting plan, how does one ever know? Is being able to, in some way anyway, part of being an AP card-counter?

Do you have a plan when you play and then stick to it? What makes you "think" you are over-betting? You decide that beforehand I would think. Or are you really just betting different amounts all the time just because maybe the count is really really high?

Like I count and know when I have an advantage, I can apply indexes and do, if I increase my bet it's usually at least in a positive count. Once in my youth I back-counted and jumped in with a $1000 bet lol. I sometimes book on a bad count, never on a good one. I even know how much money I won doing this.

But even though I count I certainly don't consider myself a card-counter by any stretch of the imagination because I'm never applying a plan and have nothing to relate my results to.

I suppose I could delude myself and say "wow, this counting stuff really works" or something or I got away with a 20-1 spread because I jumped from $10 to $200 but that would be silly to me.

I suppose my definition of a card-counter might be a little narrower than other people's lol.

[Jeff25]

I bet you wern't questioning your skill when you were up 100's? I had/have the same problem. After a long down swing or even a real bad shoe I will sometimes think a mistake or a lack of skill is to blame. These type of thoughts arn't healthy and can cloud your proper judgment. Bad luck a.k.a negative varience can play tricks with the mind. This game can hard to get ahead, like rhino said "you can be treading water for months"

[Cardcounter]

My bets are wild and are all over the place at the start and get more correlated on the second round, however I have a lack of attention and do not bet as acurately on the third round or later. Being backed off from several casinos throws off my game a little bit when I enter other casinos. Once I was playing a $25 table with only $700 on me and there I thought that I was making a mistake by playing for too high of stakes for my bankroll.
I think that my skill level is in the top 1% of blackjack players but I also don't think I have the concentration or skill to count down a 6 deck shoe, I think 2 decks is my limit and I stick to good rules on 1 deck.

[ihate17]

Originally Posted by Cardcounter

I think that my skill level is in the top 1% of blackjack players but I also don't think I have the concentration or skill to count down a 6 deck shoe, I think 2 decks is my limit and I stick to good rules on 1 deck.

Cardcounter:
Say the same thing and come up with two completely different meanings.
My skill level is in the top 1% of blackjack players:
This means you perhaps almost play basic strategy but make a few errors and do not count cards. You are one of the best blackjack players in the casino, in the top percent and instead of losing you money at a rate higher than the usual person's 3%, you lose at a rate of perhaps less than 1%. But you lose, as most do in the top 1%!!!

Or do you mean you are one of the top 1% of blackjack advantage players? But you can not mean that and then say that the concentration and skill to play a shoe game is currently beyond you. When one talks of cardcounters, I think perhaps much less than .25% of players and to be in the top 1% of that tiny group (perhaps 4 or 5 people in the world) are truly special.

So based on your statement, you perhaps did not mean what you said, but obviously are considering yourself top 1% of all players and I am telling you that you must be better than that.

More important than a semantics exercise is the fact that your losing streak and total loss of $65 means nothing in terms of either variance or skill. You are far from approaching any meaninful playing time that can be evaluated and even then you would be a total of one $65 win from break even.

As they say in the old country (the Bronx) fuggataboutit.

ihate17