Bet Variance in Counting

[anders08]

Hey guys,

This is my first post. After seeing the movie 21, it rekindled my desire to learn how to count cards. I did it awhile back but never really got that good at it. I have been practicing again and I think I will become pretty good at it. But I have a few questions.

1. Say the count gets to about +10. Assuming you have been playing at $10 a hand, what is now an appropriate bet as to not attract attention?

2. Assume you are playing a six deck shoe. At what point in this shoe would you expect to get a favorable count? Or, could you go shoes and never get any thing close to a favorable count?

I'm pretty much new to this whole thing and am trying to figure out how it works. Is this a waiting game?

Thanks for any insight.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by anders08

1. Say the count gets to about +10. Assuming you have been playing at $10 a hand, what is now an appropriate bet as to not attract attention?

The heat will depend on the casino. Some casinos will get sweaty of you jump to $40, others won’t care if you jump to $300. The size of your bet should be based on your advantage, the variance, your tolerance for risk and the size of your bankroll. Generally you will be making your max bet around a TC of +4 or +5 so at +10 you will be maxed out anyway.

Originally Posted by anders08

2. Assume you are playing a six deck shoe. At what point in this shoe would you expect to get a favorable count? Or, could you go shoes and never get any thing close to a favorable count?

You never know. It might happen right away or it might not happen at all. The most favorable counts are usually towards the end of the shoe though. I believe that about 1-in-5 shoes goes favorable at some point.

Originally Posted by anders08

Is this a waiting game?

Yes. The odds are in your favor about 25% of the time. The rest of the time you will be playing at a disadvantage (or not playing at all). It takes a lot of patience to be successful at card counting.

-Sonny-

[anders08]

Sonny,

can you explain what you mean by a TC (I'm assuming means true count) of +4 or +5? I was going under the assumption that +10 was a running count.

Also, what do you mean by maxed out?

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by anders08

can you explain what you mean by a TC (I'm assuming means true count) of +4 or +5?

Right, the true count. If you are using HiLo, or any other balanced counting system for that matter, then all of your betting decisions will be based on the true count.

Originally Posted by anders08

Also, what do you mean by maxed out?

I mean that you will have reached your maximum bet by that time. For example, using a bet spread of 1-10 would have you betting 10 units at +4 or +5 (and everything above).

-Sonny-

[EasyRhino]

True Count means you divide the running count by the number of decks remaining.

Originally Posted by anders08

1. Say the count gets to about +10. Assuming you have been playing at $10 a hand, what is now an appropriate bet as to not attract attention?

Don't worry about attracting attention at first. You won't attract any attention if you're losing.

There's three things that should determine your bet:
1) size of advantage
2) risk tolerance
3) size of bankroll


As a rule of thumb, assume you have a 1% advantage at TC +3. 2% at TC +5, etc.

Let's say you your bankroll is $10,000.

Let's say you're either fairly conservative for a low stakes recreational player, or extremely aggressive for a person with a nonreplenishable bankroll. This could result in you betting 1% of your bankroll with a 1% advantage, 2% with a 2% advantage, etc. It's a very simplistic "rule of thumb", but it doesn't require any calculation.

So, at a TC of +3, you'd bet 1% of your bankroll, or $100. At TC +5, you'd bet $200. At other counts, you'd just fill in numbers as convenient.

Now, let's say you want to be less aggressive, basically just multiple all of those TC bets by .5 So you get $50 at TC+3, and $100 at TC+5. This would reduce your risk of ruin dramatically, and would be more appropriate for a large, non-replenishable bankroll.

At neutral or negative counts, you'd bet the minimum you think you can get away with, or better yet, not play those hands at all.