Im trying to calculate RoR.

[BJApprentice21]

http://www.knowcasinos.com/images/ror_formula.PNG

So, theres the formula, but I have no clue what the houses BR should be. Also, assuming I'm playing with a 1% adv, do I make q -.01 and p .01? And wtf does "^" mean? I'm trying here but Im so lost...

[Unshake]

Originally Posted by BJApprentice21

http://www.knowcasinos.com/images/ror_formula.PNG

So, theres the formula, but I have no clue what the houses BR should be. Also, assuming I'm playing with a 1% adv, do I make q -.01 and p .01? And wtf does "^" mean? I'm trying here but Im so lost...

I usually use http://www.poker-tools-online.com/riskofruin.html

The symbol "^" means to the power of. Like 8^2 = 64 or 2^3 = 8 (2*2*2)

You want to use your bankroll, not the houses.

[BJApprentice21]

[QUOTE=Unshake;74988]I usually use http://www.poker-tools-online.com/riskofruin.html

The symbol "^" means to the power of. Like 8^2 = 64 or 2^3 = 8 (2*2*2)

Thanks man, appreciated.

Originally Posted by Unshake

You want to use your bankroll, not the houses.

Hmm, according to knowcasinos.com, "Whereas R = risk of ruin, q = the odds of the house winning one trial, p = the odds of the player winning one trial, c = bankroll of house + bankroll of player, and d = bankroll of the player.(i) You can also think of q/p as the house advantage plus 1 if the house has the edge or 1 - player edge if the player has the advantage."

So I'm under the impression that I need to have a house BR value so that I can give c a value in the formula. Are they wrong? If not, what should the house BR be, why (If you don't mind)?

Thanks again.

EDIT: Also, I'm looking for the formula on WR and standard Dev. (squar root of hands played times the std dev for 1 hand...assuming a 1% advantage...I think, but thats why I'm looking), so I can't really use any type of calculator. Besides, doing the math with the correct formulas myself will help me sleep better at night.

[Kasi]

[QUOTE=BJApprentice21;74992EDIT: Also, I'm looking for the formula on WR and standard Dev. (squar root of hands played times the std dev for 1 hand...assuming a 1% advantage...I think, but thats why I'm looking), so I can't really use any type of calculator. Besides, doing the math with the correct formulas myself will help me sleep better at night.[/QUOTE]

Well I don't really understand your first formula but the one Unshake gave is good.

The formula is below in his link.

Unfortunately you need to know the standard deviation first. Win rate too. Which in Blackjack changes with every bet spread, game, style of play etc.

Easiest way to get that in BJ anyway is with a sim.

[BJApprentice21]

^ Damn...don't know how I missed the formula in the link. Stupid. Its much more simplistic too. Leads me to wonder wth all that crap I posted is for...maybe Immediate ROR?

If so, I still would like to know how to plug in the numbers to that formula! Now, off to find the formula to figure win rates, and I shall return with a fully outlined BR budget!

Thanks Kasi.

[Kasi]

[QUOTE=BJApprentice21;75013 Now, off to find the formula to figure win rates, and I shall return with a fully outlined BR budget![/QUOTE]

Don't forget to figure out your standard deviation too!

You likely will need a sim.

Good luck.

Just thought I'd add that I think this a good article on what's involved in calculating win rate and stan dev using simple examples. I'm sure you can follow it if you stick with it.
Thought it might give you an idea of what sims are doing when they figure all this stuff out.

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/.../6DeckText.htm

[QFIT]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Don't forget to figure out your standard deviation too!

You likely will need a sim.

Good luck.

Just thought I'd add that I think this a good article on what's involved in calculating win rate and stan dev using simple examples. I'm sure you can follow it if you stick with it.
Thought it might give you an idea of what sims are doing when they figure all this stuff out.

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/.../6DeckText.htm

There are a lot of incorrect assumptions and short-cuts in that article.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by QFIT

There are a lot of incorrect assumptions and short-cuts in that article.

I'm not disagreeing but I thought it at least gives a general idea of what's involved.

It's not like he had SD's associated with TC's or frequencies or anything.

Any further details on your thoughts of incorrect assumptions and/or short-cuts would, as always, be appreciated.

Would I be right in assuming one could re-create, or come very close, to Don's numbers on the right-side in CH 10 from the first 3 columns on the left-side using just a spreadsheet? (and suggested bet-spreads of course assuming roll.)

I mean I know the TC Freq and EV W/L% and SD in first 3 columns were all generated with sims but is there anything else one need really know to determine one's own ramp and ROR, etc., for that particular game and pen?
(not counting wonging out in neg TC's since those are not detailed but just the concept kind of thing.)

To answer the poster's question, what would be the minimal information necessary to develop one's own spreads etc?

[QFIT]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Would I be right in assuming one could re-create, or come very close, to Don's numbers on the right-side in CH 10 from the first 3 columns on the left-side using just a spreadsheet? (and suggested bet-spreads of course assuming roll.)

I created those numbers in Don's book. Yes a spreadsheet could do this. It's a rather complex spreadsheet requiring VBA as the function is iterative. And, of course, you need the first three columns of data for the specific circumstances. This data cannot be created with a spreadsheet.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by QFIT

I created those numbers in Don's book. Yes a spreadsheet could do this. It's a rather complex spreadsheet requiring VBA as the function is iterative. And, of course, you need the first three columns of data for the specific circumstances. This data cannot be created with a spreadsheet.

Thank you. And I know there's no better person to ask lol.

Is that iterative process only necessary when one wants to develop the "best" ramp, I guess SCORE-wise?

Would I still have to worry about that iterative process if I just wanted to enter any 1-to-whatever-spread changing how much at what counts based soley on the hard data in the first 3 columns?

Probably a dumb question so don't worry about it.

But thanks again - one more thing to think about lol.