The Ploppy Speaks His Mind

[Ploppy]

I have been visiting and lurking on this board for more than a year, maybe closer to two. I play blackjack only a few times a year and I do it for fun, not profit. First, I want to thank the regulars--most of all the Buddah of Blackjack, Ken Smith, for sponsoring the site, but also Sonny, I Hate 17, Zengrifter and the rest. You've helped me understand the game, from basic strategy to counting to the AP life that you all profess to lead. As for me--I know basic strategy cold and I'm proficient at the KO count at my kitchen table at least. I can count in the casino, not always perfectly, but pretty damn good--but because I don't play a lot, I don't spread my bets. If the count is high, I'll take insurance and make about five of the Illustrious 18 index plays. I figure that reduces the house edge somewhat and, as I say, I'm there to have fun. I don't need the variance.

So far, I've kept pretty silent on this board--what the Hell could I tell you that you didn't already know. But now, with the influx of newbies--presumably lured in by the movie--I will speak my mind.

No doubt, the movie will be the catylst for some few who will go on to be the next generation's Ken Ustons and Stanford Wongs. But in the short term, it is creating super-ploppies who will lose their bankrolls and their pride before they know it. At least regular ploppies know they're gambling. They expect to lose and if they happen to win, so much the better.

But the new super-ploppies expect to win when (a) they don't have the bankroll; (b) they don't have the time; and (c) they haven't practiced nearly enough. There was a thread on this site from a man who wants to have a $100 large bet with a $1,000 bankroll. Maybe he'll win his first night out, but the variance of the game is such that his bankroll will be gone if he keeps it up. There was a thread from somebody learning Hi-Lo who can't figure out how to learn basic strategy. You don't have to be Albert Einstein or even Ed Thorp to do this stuff, but you have to practice, practice, practice.

So, I say to the newbie super-ploppies that they must recognize the following:

A. Even in a high count with good rules (absent advanced non-counting techniques), you're EV can't be more than 1% or 1.5%. Even 1.5% ain't much of an advantage in the short term. There are plenty of roulette players who walk away winners in the short term, and they're playing at a disadvantage of 5%. On any given night, you can win or lose--and its not until you are well over 10,000 games that the variance begins to recede. Until that point, at a 1% advantage, you still have a sizeable chance of coming out behind. You're not likely to, but its statistically possible. If you're planning to play for three ten hour days, or if you're planning to play four hours every other Saturday, then your actual result will likely vary dramatically--up or down--from your EV.

B. Even if you were going to play 10,000 hands--roughly 1,000 - 1,500 hours (or six to nine months of forty hour weeks) at the tables--you'd go broke from the game's variance unless you had a sufficient bankroll. They say that if you are counting, you should have a bankroll that's 200 times your average bet--or a $5,000 bankroll for $25 average bet. If you don't, you risk losing it all. If you have substantially less than this, and you are spreading per your counting system, you're likely to be in real trouble sooner or later.

C. OK, lets say you have $5,000 and 1,000 free hours. Say your EV is 1%. With an average bet of $25, you would be earning, on average 25 cents per hand. With 100 hands per hour, you'd be getting $25 per hour, or $25,000 over a six month period of forty hour weeks of blackjack. Not bad, but you're not buying that yacht.

The MIT team had three things that the newbie super-ploppies don't: (A) Money (they were financed so they could safely make $10,000 bets at times); (B) Time (with a large team, they could get into the long term quickly); and (C) Discipline. That and a whole lot more in the way of advanced techniques.

My advice to the newbies is to join me in happy ploppy-land. Play basic strategy for a while. See how it suits you. Lurk and learn and grow your bankroll. Then, in a year or so, if you want to move to the next level, go ahead.
-Ploppy

[RDish]

I hope my post earlier today with the word "newbie" in the title was not the catalyst for your PhD dissertation on the game of blackjack. Didn't we all start somehwhere?

I have been a member of this site for well over a year, purchased the casino verite software and practice the skill of counting and actually play with the appropriate bankroll for what I can lose when in vegas.....yet I still call myself a "newbie" and for good reason. I have been at it for a few years while many experienced guys on this site have been doing it for decades.

You wrote some great points, but what attracts you to blasting "newbies" on the site or for new folks asking questions?

[Ploppy]

And I consider myself a newbie as well. I certainly was not responding to your earlier message about six deck v. double deck games. Hope no offense was taken.

[RenoRenagade]

Originally Posted by Ploppy

First, I want to thank the regulars--most of all the Buddah of Blackjack, Ken Smith, for sponsoring the site, but also Sonny, I Hate 17, Zengrifter and the rest.

I agree to this . Ive been on many forums and the people here are nice and dont flame a newbie who asks questions . Ive been on many poker forums/ and other types where a noob asks a question thats been asked 10 times before and they were flamed to high heaven. I learked over this site for about 6 months ( alot of times it was in my google searches lol ) and finally registered when I needed to know something and Im glad. But I would like to thank bj bob and cardcounter who answered my stupid questions Ive asked and every other AP's for not being jerks to the newbies and being helpful.

And as far as these "21" movie people . Most will fail . But its the ones who take the time to actually learn BS and different counting techniques that have a chance to be a profitable player and not go broke.

Ive seen the same thing in poker players . they see it on TV and they think they can do it to and dont take the time to learn and lose hundreds and thousands because they never took the time to get better and learn the game within the games or play the stakes they cant afford.

[Mr. T]

Originally Posted by Ploppy

And I consider myself a newbie as well. I certainly was not responding to your earlier message about six deck v. double deck games. Hope no offense was taken.

First of all you are no PLOPPY.
You know as much of Variance as Sonny.
Since you said you dont play that often and is counting I would put you down as a wanne-be AP.
Want to make $25 per hour or $25,000 in 6 months. I dont know which casino will let you do it. Dont end up like Ken. He got disbarred in his hometown casino and some no name cruise ship casino.
Well I suppose daydreaming is quite a common pastime.

[ChefJJ]

Great post Ploppy...not because you are blasting anybody in particular, but because you are dishing out a hot plate of reality.

Big dreams always need a generous helping of reality; not to dispel them, but to make them come to fruition.

good luck

[aslan]

Originally Posted by ChefJJ

Great post Ploppy...not because you are blasting anybody in particular, but because you are dishing out a hot plate of reality.

Big dreams always need a generous helping of reality; not to dispel them, but to make them come to fruition.

good luck

Well said, Chef.

[BJApprentice21]

Hey man, nice post. You seem to be well informed and have the right idea about APing. Funny how I'm saying this like Ima pro, but I cant even get into a casino for like 8 months.

Anyway, I also like your message to all use potential ploppies who are going to rush to vegas thinking we are APing (but actualy DPing), but don't have nearly what it takes for the grind, and end up broke!

One thing though

Originally Posted by Ploppy

...B. Even if you were going to play 10,000 hands--roughly 1,000 - 1,500 hours (or six to nine months of forty hour weeks) at the tables...

In a good game, from what I've been reading, you can expect like 75-100 hands dealt an hour (you should be looking for this type of table anyway). So, thats about 100-135 hours for 10,000 hands to be dealt your way if your doing it right! That then translates to about 10 weeks (2.5 months) of playing for 10 hours, strictly on weekends. Now, if you played 5 days a week, for 10 hours a day, you can actually get 10,000 hands dealt your way in only 2 weeks.

Now, of course this is more practical with a team due to heat issues if you are considering large high end bet spreads. Also, If you aren't looking for games like this...I would personally still consider that individual to be an aspiring AP player who isn't close to ready because you should already know this, and be playing at this level as far as speed goes anyway (I'm generalizing)! Plus, playing as many hands as possible, as quick as possible (efficiently) is how you overcome that short term variance we all dread, and get to the long term, big bucks, bigger headaches and higher levels of disappointment (at times) quicker!

Anyway, I'm not saying all this to try and be right...coundn't care less (plus who am I to do that), and I'm sure you probably already knew this. I just wouldn't want people to see this thread and think you have no idea wtf your talking and then discard your advice due to a typo/slight miscalculation because I think you have exactly the right idea and I nice message...and you do know what your talking about.

Good read bro

Ps feel free to correct me if I'm wrong!

[rukus]

good catch on the math regarding # hours for 10k hands. i would point out though that 100 hours will hardly yield the "long run" in my opinion. probably closer to 300 hours before your EV even passes just one expected standard deviation (obviously this depends on if youre wonging, play-all, etc)...

[BJApprentice21]

Originally Posted by rukus

... i would point out though that 100 hours will hardly yield the "long run" in my opinion. probably closer to 300 hours before your EV even passes just one expected standard deviation (obviously this depends on if youre wonging, play-all, etc)...

100% correct. I should've clarified that. I was trying to stress the importance of playing numerous hands, but that would definitely give a noob the wrong idea.

Good eye.