Deck estimation

[Stylee]

I haven't been playing blackjack but a few months, but I've etched bs into my brain and have been looking at counting. I tried hi-lo but found it very difficult and decided to start small and work up to it by learning Renzeys Ace/10 count to get a feel for keeping track of the cards in general. I am usually within 1 or 2 of the correct count if I'm not right on but the deck estimation is killing me. I seem to not be getting any better at it. I'm kind of stuck on how to practice this skill. Any advice or other publications that focus on this? Thanks for any help - Stylee

[BJApprentice21]

Casino Verite software. You can practice everything with it man. It's definitely helped improve my skills as far as sim's go.

Plenty of options so that you can pretty much set up any type of casino scenario and prepare for it. Anything from game rules to casino heat. Hell it'll even let you know if you know BS as well as you think you do (not saying you don't). Highly recommended by this noob!

Just realized I sound like an advertisement. hah

[Stylee]

I've seen it and it does look great, but for deck estimation? Seems like you would need to practice with actual cards

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Stylee

I've seen it and it does look great, but for deck estimation? Seems like you would need to practice with actual cards

that might be best at first. one thing you can do is go out and buy maybe ten decks of those cheap dollar store cards. they are a bit off from regular casino cards but they should be ok for this purpose. take four decks and pile them up. then three decks and pile them up. then two decks and pile them up and one deck and pile it up. line those piles up next to one another in that order and set them some where that you spend a lot of time. maybe do this with another ten decks and set them in another location. so through out the day your gonna for one thing see these decks as you do what ever and your gonna become very familiar with that sight. other times your gonna look at those piles and your gonna say to your self. this is one deck. this is two decks this is three decks. this is four decks. after a while your gonna get to know what's what when you see it.
other what they do is practice cutting say a deck of cards out of a pack of say six decks ect.

[golfnut101]

Switch toan unbalanced count. KO, KISS will eliminate the TC headache, without giving up anything. Unless you plan on learning advanced techniques, why bother ?

[Stylee]

Yeah I want to learn KISS but I figured Ace/10 would be easiest to start with, but I've been reconsidering that lately.

[moo321]

Originally Posted by golfnut101

Switch toan unbalanced count. KO, KISS will eliminate the TC headache, without giving up anything. Unless you plan on learning advanced techniques, why bother ?

Yes, you give up a little by switching to an unbalanced. Slightly underestimate your edge early, and overestimate it late.

[callipygian]

The other problem with an unbalanced count is that it's more difficult to get up and leave when the count goes negative.

There's no substitute for real-deck practicing for deck estimation. The only caveat I would make is that you should splurge and buy used decks from a casino rather than the cheapest possible - the cheap decks are often thinner than normal and also used decks tend to be a little thicker than new decks.

[rukus]

6 Deck discard tray: $8.00
http://www.amazon.com/Deck-clear-acr...7690715&sr=8-3

13 decks of cards: $13.00
http://www.amazon.com/Bakers-Dozen-D...690798&sr=8-13

Cut Cards: $2.00
http://www.amazon.com/Professional-Q...7690880&sr=8-1


Practicing with real, live cards in your hand: Priceless (and cheap)


ok - in all seriousness, im just going to paraphrase a method i read in Blackbelt in blackjack many moons ago which helped me get my estimation down (in addition to using CVBJ for the first few hours of practicing estimation):

take 6 decks (or 1 or 2 or 8), pile them together, and then number them in the corners with marker from 1 through 312 (or 52 or 104 or 416). stick them all in the discard tray

practice sticking the cut card into the stack of decks sitting in the discard tray, first aiming for 1D increments, then half deck increments (and then quarter deck increments if you so please). in other words, try and cut one deck from the bottom, then 2, 3, etc. then try 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, etc. take a look at the number written on the card right below your cut card to check your estimate. if you are trying for 2 decks for instance, you should see 104 on the card right below your cut card.

once you can do this, just randomly remove varying chunks of cards from the top of the stack and estimate what you see sitting in the tray. take a look at the number written on the top card of the remaining pile to check your estimate.

with a little practice you can get accurate down to quarter deck if you choose. quarter deck is recommended for single/double deck while half deck is what i recommend for shoes (though plenty of ppl use full deck estimates until the last deck or two of a shoe).

finally, if you buy enough decks as previously suggested, you can just create permanent piles of 1 deck, 1.5 decks, 2 decks, etc. just keep them around your house/apartment and keep staring at them and your eyes will callibrate.

in all honesty, after only a day or two of staring at these things i bet you can pretty accurately estimate them to at least a half deck.

[Stylee]

Yeah I'm already able to get within half a deck always, but it can range from 5 cards over to 16 cards short. But those Ideas are great. I have a 6deck discard tray but only 4 decks of casino bee cards, so it looks like I just need to get at least 6 decks. Thanks for all the advice - Stylee