Things that don't make sense

[MightyOne]

Card counters all say that progressions don't work because with a negative expectation you will lose X% of your small and big bets based on that expectation.
So why, may I ask, does basic strategy have you double down in negative counts? By doubling down you put up 2x more money in a negative count and if there is double after split you are feeding the house even more money.
I understand why you split; you are pitting the bust rate of each card against the dealers bust rate.

For Negative expectations I use this strategy to keep my losses low:

5-13: HIT
14: Stand VS 4-6
15 & 16: Stand VS 2-6 |SR vs 8-A|
17-21: Stand |SR 17 vs A|
A/2-6: HIT
A/7: Stand VS 2-8
A/8-9: Stand
2/2-3/3: Split VS 4-6
4/4-5/5: HIT
6/6: Split VS 4-6
7/7: Split VS 2-7
8/8: Split VS 2-8 |SR vs 9-A|
9/9: Split VS 2-9, Stand VS 7, 10, A.
10/10: Stand
A/A: Split

Naturally, when I am favored to win, I will add double down.

I would like to hear your thoughts on this strategy to control variance.

[shadroch]

Basic strategy is based on a neutral count,as it doesn't take the count into
effect. If you are counting cards,you should deviate from BS when the count is either very hi or very lo.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by MightyOne

So why, may I ask, does basic strategy have you double down in negative counts?

Because basic strategy does not take the count into consideration. It is the correct decision when you don’t know what the count is. If you are counting cards then there will be a specific point where many basic strategy plays should be changed. For example, in high counts you will stand, surrender and double down more often. In low counts you will hit more often and double down less. Basic strategy is meant to tell you how to play on average, not in specific circumstances.

Originally Posted by MightyOne

I understand why you split; you are pitting the bust rate of each card against the dealers bust rate.

Most of the time you are splitting as a defensive move. With a pair of eights you want to do anything you can to get rid of a dreaded 16. Holding 2 eights gives you a better chance of reaching a strong hand. There are some splits that you make in order to get more money on the table and/or to get a better chance of having a good double down hand, but for the most part splitting cards is a form of damage control.

In general I think that your strategy will increase the house edge quite a bit because many of those plays will be done at the wrong time. If you are counting cards then you really should learn the proper time to make all of those plays instead of just making them when you feel like the count is right. You might be surprised how negative the count has to be to make them correct. Also you seem to be surrendering too often. Better yet, just avoid playing negative counts entirely.

-Sonny-

[MightyOne]

I'm not a card counter, I'm the guy you love to hate ...

I am a trend follower...

My goal is not just to attack the dealer when he is "weak," but to
attack him when he is weak AND when the cards are running my way.

My "counting" involves grouping WIN vs LOSS in Red and Black groups.
A group equals 5 hands/decisions and do not include: extra hands from splits, extra bets from double down, or surrender.

If RED I play the strategy in the above post to control loss and bet 1 unit.
If BLACK I add double down and more correct plays and bet 5x - 10x+
If BLACK and 3 out of 5 is RED I play RED until 3 out of 5 in the next group
changes the color back to BLACK unless I get 2 RED.

3 out of 5 WINS vs LOSS = BLACK
3 out of 5 LOSS vs WINS = RED

From the start of the shoe until 2 BLACK is RED
2 RED is RED until 2 BLACK

BLACK + RED = temporary RED
GREEN + RED + GREEN = GREEN

*listens to the laughter in the background*

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by MightyOne

So why, may I ask, does basic strategy have you double down in negative counts?

Because even if your count is negative, you're still expecting to win money by doubling down on that particular hand.

Even when the true count is -5, the EV of doubling hard 11 vs. dealer 2 is +0.30, compared with +0.16 for hitting and -0.35 for standing.

Originally Posted by MightyOne

I would like to hear your thoughts on this strategy to control variance.

I think you're definitely controlling variance, but with a big loss in expected value. Instead of being a toss up between winning and losing a bigger amount, you're almost certain to lose a smaller amount.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by MightyOne

My "counting" involves grouping WIN vs LOSS in Red and Black groups.

It’s already been done. It doesn’t work. Check it out:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=9093

In fact, your system will perform even worse because you are making both playing and betting decisions based on your win/loss ratio. Your win/loss ratio will not give you any information about your advantage or the status of the shoe so you are just making wild guesses for both betting and playing.

-Sonny-

[QFIT]

Originally Posted by MightyOne

I'm not a card counter, I'm the guy you love to hate

No 'hate' at all. Trend followers fund the casinos. Without them, advantage play would not be possible.

Blackjack-Scams.com

[MightyOne]

I think it is a little different than what was said in the link provided as it
doesn't track individual wins and losses but groups.
If the powers of chance and the laws of uneven distribution bless me with 3 out of 5 wins vs losses for several groups I think it is a little more than a wild guess
that betting more and attacking the dealer would yield results until this is not so.

I am not pig headed though...

If you truly believe that there is no merit to this strategy then I yield to your knowledge.

I only created it because the trend strategy of using red and black candles works so well when trading that I thought the "trend" in Blackjack might also be "tradeable."

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by MightyOne

I think it is a little different than what was said in the link provided as it doesn't track individual wins and losses but groups.

In this case it doesn’t matter. Wins and losses, whether individually or in groups, do not give you any information about the results of the next hand or group of hands, your advantage, the composition of the shoe, the probability of winning or losing in the future, or anything else. I know that you’re excited about your previous wins using this method at blackjack and stock trading, but I can assure you that it was simply short-term luck. You should not expect your long term results (in both cases) to be profitable.

Originally Posted by MightyOne

If the powers of chance and the laws of uneven distribution bless me with 3 out of 5 wins vs losses for several groups I think it is a little more than a wild guess…

I am not aware of any “law of uneven distribution” in mathematics. If you have won 3 out of 5 hands then you have definitely been very lucky. You should expect to win 43% of the hands you play and lose $49% of them (with the other 9% being pushes). I have a feeling that your system will do very poorly when you start to experience more realistic results. Although anecdotal evidence may suggest that your system is working, I can assure you that once your luck ruins out you should expect to lose your money back. It might be a fun way to play but it is not a profitable strategy. In any case, I wish you the best. Feel free to look around the website and read some other people’s experiences. Here’s an interesting place to start:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=7821

-Sonny-

[MightyOne]

Since I made it to the Voodoo board I might as well post my complete Voodoo
strategy so that all Voodoo practitioners can have some fun at the casino before we all go home broke

Strategy for Trend Following

RED (Single Unit)

5-13: HIT
14: Stand VS 4-6
15 & 16: Stand VS 2-6 |SR vs 8-A|
17-21: Stand |SR 17 vs A|
A/2-6: HIT
A/7: Stand VS 2-8
A/8-9: Stand
2/2-3/3: Split VS 4-6
4/4-5/5: HIT
6/6: Split VS 4-6
7/7: Split VS 2-7
8/8: Split VS 2-8 |SR vs 9-A|
9/9: Split VS 2-9, Stand VS 7, 10, A.
10/10: Stand
A/A: Split

BLACK (5x - 10x+) Additional Rules

9 |D|D| vs 3-6
10 & 11 |D|D| vs 2-8
A/2&3 |D|D| vs 5 & 6
A/4&5 |D|D| vs 4 - 6
A/6&7 |D|D| vs 3 - 6
2/2-3/3: Split vs 2 & 3 If |D|D| after Split
4/4: Split vs 5 & 6 If |D|D| after Split
5/5: |D|D| vs 2-8

Even if 3 out of 5 makes BLACK or RED you must wait until
the end of the group to count the next.

First hand until 2 BLACK is RED
2 RED is RED until 2 BLACK.

BLACK (when in trend) + RED = temporary RED
BLACK (when in trend) + RED + BLACK = BLACK

BLACK = 3 ouf of 5 WIN vs LOSS
RED = 3 out of 5 LOSS vs WIN