If you hit hard 16 and plan to stand at 17 or more, then you’ll take only one card.

Five of the possible 13 card values will improve your hand, so you’ll bust the other 8/13 of the time.

p(bust 16) = 8/13 = 61.5%

If you have hard 15, there are now two possibilities…

You’ll bust immediately 7/13 of the time.

1/13 of the time you’ll draw an Ace for hard 16, and hit again.

p(bust 15) = 7/13 + (1/13 * 8/13) = 58.6%

You can do the same thing for the other starting hands.

The results?

p(Bust 16) = 61.5%

p(Bust 15) = 58.6%

p(Bust 14) = 55.0%

p(Bust 13) = 50.9%

p(Bust 12) = 46.2%

These all assume you will continue hitting until you reach 17 or bust.

]]>I have bust rate for dealer up cards from A to 10, but can’t find the bust rate for player hard 12 to 16 when hit for another cards.please give me the information.I am a basic strategy player. Thank you. ]]>

Ask a dozen Roulette players the odds of hitting “red” or “black” is and you’ll get twelve wrong answers.

Ask a dozen Craps players how many ways a seven can fall, and it’s “DUHHHH…”

As for Blackjack, the most popular strategy is the Whudidowiddishand non-strategy strategy. The 50th anniversary of _Beat the Dealer_ has come and gone. For most of these people, it’s 1961 all over again.

]]>As a “Skilled player” according to the casinos in AC, I would have to agree with you about Mr. Third Base taking the dealers break card. Countless times (no pun intended), I have tried to explain to people at the table that the shoe has no memory of who goes in & out at the table. There have been times when at Third base I will wave a hit with a hand five, deuce against the dealers Ten. People look at me in astonishment after the dealer shows 5 in the hole & breaks with a ten. Even if I can put the hole card on a low number, it doesn’t mean I will always prevail. One of my best observations is that everyone wants instant gratification on every hand. My favorite saying to other players flipping out because of non book moves, is to remember that there are no seat belts on the stools.

]]>For example: Great job, you changed the flow of the cards just in time. You saved the table with that move I never would of considered (Ignoring the times when their bad move killed the table and praising them for saving it)! Let it ride baby (make them think you’re chasing a winning streak, when in reality the count is sizzling HOT)! I’ve been losing, I don’t want to keep playing this cold shoe. My hand of bad luck 13 killed me, I’m changing tables (The reality is, you’re switching tables/lowering your bets because the true count suddenly turned negative. ]]>

“I then have a 75% chance of winning or losing depending on the card drawn by Johnny.”

But you don’t know which card he will draw. Your chance of winning the hand in this situation is unchanged. If he stands, you win 50% of the time. If he draws a card, you win 50% of the time.

@Julian:

I see your point!