Archives of CardCounter.com message forums

These archives of the CardCounter.com message boards are provided as-is for reference. If you want to discuss anything about the posts, please post a message to the BlackjackInfo.com message forums.

Threads 361 to 390

Indiana Riverboats
Posted by glenracing on 21-Jan-2003 21:40:48 (#2740)

Do any of the Indiana boats on the Ohio River have a playable game for an advantage player?

Re: Indiana Riverboats
Posted by sprettster on 22-Jan-2003 00:09:21 (#2751)

The Argosy in Lawrenceburg is playable: 6D, 75% pen, S17, DOA, no RSA. Weekdays are best - it's very crowded on weekends.

The Grand Victoria in Lawrenceburg is a waste of time. Few tables, very crowded, and a "no mid-shoe entry" sign on their 4D game.

counting and comps
Posted by dude on 22-Jan-2003 01:11:41 (#2752)

At the casino I frequent, comps are given out only as long as you apply for a "comp card." However, the application for that card asks for one's name, address, etc., and all sorts of things one would not give to a casino. How do most counters get comps while counting without giving away their real names? Does everyone have a fake name and ID?

Re: counting and comps
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 22-Jan-2003 11:16:19 (#2763)

get the card and IF they catch onto you, don't use it after that. Just act like everyone else does and they will be less suspicious of you.

Re: counting and comps
Posted by SammyBoy on 22-Jan-2003 13:58:43 (#2765)

I haven't been doing this long enough to know what one should do. But I get players cards everyplace I play using my real name and take advantage of whatever comps I can get. Maybe one day I will look back and think it was a mistake, but over the last 8 months I've had no problems.

Re: counting and comps
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 22-Jan-2003 15:33:44 (#2768)

Remember, just because somebody asks for something, doesn't mean you have to give it.

Some answers to consider.

Phone number? None of your damm business, I hate telemarketers and people calling me.
Drivers License Number/License Plate? I don't drive, my friends bring me, or I take the bus, or grab a cab.
Address? Give them any old non-existent address. The only reason they ask for this is so they can mail you offers. If the mail is undeliverable, the marketing dept. will remove you from the mailing list, but they aren't going to notify the pit or cut off your comps or anything. If you give them a lot of action, you might consider setting up a post office box at a Mailboxes R Us place. Some of the mail offers are for free money, etc., and you might want to get them.
Need an ID? You might try all the old underage drinking tricks. Claim you forgot your ID and see if they will accept the form anyways. Use your long lost cousin's ID who never goes to casinos anyways. Etc., Etc.

Of course, like SAMMY says ... if you aren't planning on making a full time career of it, or must depend on a large portion of your income from it, just give them your real name and forget about it.

Some good info...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 22-Jan-2003 18:03:18 (#2775)

Abe made some very good points, and you can also find some good info on the subject by doing some searches through zg's plethora of posts, archived throughout the web.

ANS

Re: Some good info...
Posted by Learning to count on 23-Jan-2003 16:41:23 (#2793)

I am half way through Comp City by Max Rubin. $15. If you need to understand comps this is the bible. If you are making a living from the casinos then it is good to get comps. If you are a rec player it is good still. If you are hurting the casino's bottom line...and only a small percentage of pros are still doing it...less than 20 in the world. Then the false ID's and disguises come into play. And if you dont need free food here or a free room there or a silk jacket with that casinos name on it forego the card and keep making money. I found when I drop a grand its good for them to notice and pad my account. I know I will be back.

Comp City
Posted by Coug Fan on 23-Jan-2003 18:35:21 (#2798)

I thought that book was a good read with alot of great ideas. I have also thought about how you could incorporate some of those ideas into an act. In other words, try to come across as a novice "Comp Counter" (Max's term) instead of a card counter. One idea would be to purposely call the PC over when the count jumps way up, ask him what the casino's best restaurant is as you are very obviously putting out your max bet and then immediately ask how long you need to play with that average bet to get a dinner.

My one complaint is that he is inconsistent in his calculation of EV. He very studiously calculates the EV of a given level of play and compares that to the comp value, but then he ignores the cost of tips and gifts from the EV cost (even though he recommends that you tip and give gifts). Obviously, the EV loss on a tip is 100% of the tip, and in alot of cases this may double the EV from playing. In other words, if you are an aspiring "comp counter" playing $25 per hand and managing to slow the game down to 30 hands an hour with perfect BS, you are correctly assuming that the EV loss from your play is $3.75 per hour. However, if you are also following Max's advice to tip a $5 chip per hour when you are winning (roughly 1/2 of the time), your real EV is more like $6.25 per hour. I don't have a problem with him advising people to tip, but he should include that in the calculation of your "cost" to get comps.

Note that in my example, your comp value may still be greater than your total "cost" since you have managed to convince the pit that you are really averaging $50 per hand at a normal 60 hands per hour rate with a 2% disadvantage, etc.

Re: Comp City
Posted by hammer on 23-Jan-2003 19:37:21 (#2802)

Of course he says to tip, he is partial owner of a major casino,
and wants to keep his dealers happy. He also has dealers/pit staff
to watch films and learn techniques that pros use,to add further
paranoia to the otherwise mellow crew.

Re: Comp City
Posted by Learning to count on 23-Jan-2003 19:37:41 (#2803)

Your right he does overlook EV (Expected value)and adds even more EL (emphasized loss) with his strategy to play and lose at the the expected vig of the game. He wants the average ploppy to bet large when being watched then lower the bets to a "safe level" and extend your play so that you meet the VIG expectation. He emphasizes a strategy that is the opposite of advantage play. I dont know about you but I have seen positive shoes lose all the way through. Can you imagine if a ploppy with ten grand starts betting black and the pit boss camps out. The book is good because he gives you a look into the world of the casino book keepers and thier strategy to rape the suckers. He also has a great history and the development of the greedy casino business. If your gonna fight the dragon at least know how to fight. On the Travel channel show "suckers bet" he emphasized that he wrote the book for the morons who go to vegas with greed in thier hearts but numbness in thier brains. He gave them a way to get the most out of thier losses.

How Often Do you Play?
Posted by SammyBoy on 22-Jan-2003 13:30:39 (#2764)

I'm averaging about 30 hours a month.

Not often enough...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 22-Jan-2003 17:47:05 (#2773)

These last couple months most of my efforts have been concentrated on theory, research, and development of new and modified techniques. Fortunately, I had a good summer, and can get away with limited play right now. Though with some of the recent reports I've received of quality conditions, I might have to make some time.

ANS

Re: How Often Do you Play?
Posted by BradRod on 22-Jan-2003 19:15:35 (#2778)

<<<<<<<<<These last couple months most of my efforts have been concentrated on theory, research, and development of new and modified techniques. Fortunately, I had a good summer, and can get away with limited play right now. Though with some of the recent reports I've received of quality conditions, I might have to make some time.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

ANS

I like the results i've seen so far from you research.
Where are these quality conditions reported? I am looking for good game opportunities.

Thanks,

Bradrod

Brad, e-mail me... *NM*
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 22-Jan-2003 19:25:37 (#2779)

## *NM*
Posted by BradRod on 22-Jan-2003 20:10:06 (#2781)

Re: contact
Posted by BradRod on 23-Jan-2003 13:37:08 (#2786)

Adam,

WOuld like to e-mail you but, need to wait until the Mayor returns to facilitate that. Unless you have your e-mail address posted somewhere.

Brad

sorry Brad...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 23-Jan-2003 16:55:53 (#2794)

I thought my e-mail was displayed when I plug in to post. Here it is:

adamnsubtractum@aol.com

Re: How Often Do you Play?
Posted by BradRod on 22-Jan-2003 17:48:03 (#2774)

i had been playing nearly 50 hours / mo. until i hit a real bad down period. I am just now easing back into i.

Every Day
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 22-Jan-2003 20:13:21 (#2782)

I play onLine blackjack, bet sports, and take free shots at big jackpots with the money I win hoping to win a big pot one day. I am a results oriented player, not just a long term one, and like to end each day ahead of where I was yesterday. I play at about 5 different casinos and like to hit them up for $20 each day. Will play onLand BJ when I get the chance to, normally when invited out with da boys or to hook up with other counters. I could back my play with money won onLine, but I have that invested and normally play on pure credit to make my money.

Ace Side Count is it worth the effort?
Posted by V-man on 22-Jan-2003 16:48:29 (#2769)

Adam had a post here something like '21st century sidecounting' a very good post indeed that made me do some digging. I also found a couple of good articles by Cacarulo on BJ21. All talk about the efficiency of ace side count. I wonder if it's worth the effort? If you are playing 6 or 8 decks, HiLo, is it worth the effort to keep an ace sidecount and adjusted with normal HiLo RC for playing indices. Cacarulo's studies showed that PE for most (not all) of the C22 indices, Ace is counted as 0, about 5 indices (Ins, 16v10, 16v9, 12v6, 11vA) PE is highest when Ace is counted as +1, and for one case, 10v10 PE is highest when Ace = -2. So if you stick with one side count value, I guess the best is Ace=0. But again you don't want to loose the 10v10 case, which can happen quite more often than the other indices. Already complicate quite a bit the HiLo counting systems, not to mention that I have to re-learn all the new C22 indices (engraved in my brain for more than a year now!). My question is Ace side count worth the effort? Standford Wong in his PB book recommands against Ace sidecount. Has anyone run some sim to find out if it is worth the effort?

I Think So
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 23-Jan-2003 13:28:54 (#2784)

From my own experience I will have to say yes. Recent info has placed the value of the A around .61, much higher than previously, .49. Snapers are what we are looking for, and you need the A for that to happen. That is the reason we also try to track them when possible. Whether rich or tracked, I say yes. The 3:2 pay off is an integral part of my onLine RNG BJ research. Without thos snapers, what would the world be like? smile

Re: I Think So
Posted by Learning to count on 23-Jan-2003 16:32:45 (#2792)

In single deck an ace side count is good strategy. I use hilo but I keep an eye on those aces. Use a chip and stack it. Once you get 1 ace beware. Two aces the game is poor. Three aces out early time to move or bet minimum. I dont know the numbers. But I do know its worth keeping track in single deck. In six decks I still track just to keep aware. Good question for the Mayor!!!

plus
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 23-Jan-2003 13:35:14 (#2785)

it doesn't have to be a side count per se, it can be a judgement of richness without an actual count ala Uston APC. I do not bet less when the decks are poor, only more when they are rich, and keep track of them 1 per quarter deck.

OK,so it isn't THAT hard to do,but HOW MUCH gains?
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 23-Jan-2003 19:23:13 (#2800)

This is the question I will be addressing in a follow-up to my "21st Century Sidecounting" post. In that post we established that an Ace (or any) side count is not nearly as difficult as that previously perceived by most in the cardcounter community. We also saw touched upon the importance of playing strategy in multi-deck games, but in my follow-up we will delve into this aspect deeper, and present some actual gains from sidecounting. I am trying to compile a little more data to back my case, and should be done fairly soon.

To briefly comment on the point you brought up about T v T, its basically moot, because not EVER doubling T v T would not substantially affect your ROI (or SCORE, DI, SHARP ratio, or whatever you use) because you don't see anything but a minute increase in ev at anything less than a TC of +8 or +9 (which you will see VERY infrequently) with this play.

ANS

Online counting drills?
Posted by hinoon on 22-Jan-2003 17:16:36 (#2770)

Hey all.

So...I'm getting better. Increasing my speed slowly while maintaining my accuracy. But I'm a few months away from a casino yet.

I enjoy the hitorstand.com java BS drill because I can be on the phone and going through the drill throughout my day with very little "heat" from my boss. I've found that the computer drill has really helped with cementing my understanding of basic strategy...but I wonder if there is an equivalent counting drill. I've started to count along with the HitorStand drill, but it's fairly arbitrary, and the BS drill doesn't allow for variations or decisions based on a count (which makes sense since the point of the BS drill is to cycle through a set of predetermined "difficult" hands, and not deviate from BS). And as it's bad form to flip through cards at my desk, I'm having trouble breaking the 30 second mark.

Any thoughts or URL's?

cheers.

Re: Online counting drills?
Posted by SammyBoy on 22-Jan-2003 17:26:59 (#2771)

robtougher.com

check out zg's post in the "best posts" section...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 22-Jan-2003 17:40:12 (#2772)

The one with all the links, I think there are several drills present.

ANS

expectation
Posted by Rick on 23-Jan-2003 00:10:52 (#2783)

Hello....Many years ago I studied and did well playing the canfied system
but have not played since..about twenty years.. I decided to come back to
it in my life and picked up the Professional Blackjack by Stanford Wong...
I read the book and I belive I am going to need to play six deck and he says
my expectation is only 16.00 for a 25.00 to 100.00 spread..is this really
true and how can anyone make any money at that level..Also if I do go to LV
what are my chances of playing higher limits and single deck and not getting barred
...Please send me your coments I would greatly appriciate them..Thanks, Rick

6D Comments
Posted by Coug Fan on 23-Jan-2003 14:36:07 (#2788)

For Play-All 6D with a $25-$100 spread, the EV per 100 hands is $16.50 with good rules and pen (H17, DAS, LSR, 5/6). However, you need close to $20 K just to get to a 13.5% ROR. This is why nobody in their right mind would try to use a 1-4 spread Play-All at 6D.

You could Wong (EV increases to $150), or at a minimum, you could increase your spread to more like 20-1 (EV increases to $105). A 1-4 spread play-all is insufficient for more than SD.

Note that these figures are for Hi-Lo, but the relative amounts should hold true.

Re: 6D Comments
Posted by Learning to count on 23-Jan-2003 16:25:48 (#2791)

1-20 may still be too little try 1-30 or even 40. Play in crowded conditions or at least with ravenous ploppies who are betting heavy so you can jump up to the max with little notice. If you play like this hit the bigger joints where you see such action. I was on the strip and watched big bettors on red tables betting black all the while I bet red. when the TC went insane I was betting four to five green and much to my paranoid state I won without being noticed. I split several times and doubled along with it I had a lot at stake and the croupy busted.

re-read...Wong uses 10-100 spread for $16 WR... *NM*
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 23-Jan-2003 17:02:50 (#2797)

Counting to learn
Posted by Learning to count on 23-Jan-2003 13:53:58 (#2787)

Just did Vegas or should I say Vegas did me!

First things first:

Trip highs: Single deck and Double deck all downtown from main street to 10 street and Fremont.
SATURDAY morning: Five hours total play; Good to deep pen. ro6-ro7! Heads up. Could not stop! 100+units up
SUNDAY morning: three hours at play: 45 units more profit!
MONDAY morning: One bad game lost ten units, 15 losing hands in a row! I still made 30 units profit for the day.
TUESDAY morning: A DD game with pen down to 20 cards or less. Lasted an hour and I made 10 units until MA and PA IOWA farm sat down and started betting three spots. Then Mr Smelly sat down and burped garlic on me. I figured I should leave after a plus six true count win and two 25 dollar bets on the table. Made 20 units later at another single deck location.
Total wins on single/dd:210 units. Great time huh? Read on.

TRIP lows:
SATURDAY afternoon to 2am: Six deckers played 8 hours sluged it out. Lost 154 units!
SUNDAY Evening 5 hours of play six deckers came back within 40 units of breaking my BR even.:(
MONDAY evening: Six deckers lost 100 units more. Shit!
TUESDAY afternoon: Manna from heaven I won over 120 unit win. I was still short 13 units to break my BR even. Got a nice comp for three in the mexican restuarant and ate with two freinds. We ate like grizzilies to eat up the comp slip. And I mean LV grizzilies!
TUESDAY night late: We decided to do hailmary plays. Bad thing to do with limited time. Wonged and wonged and wonged. Lost 60 units. SO sad so bad. Hey its card counting.

...AND to top it off $100 loss to vid poker and $100 loss in a five dollar slot (Wheel of Fortune). OK OK so I need to go to gam anon!

Moral of the story: Dont gamble tired. I started hallucinating. Dont play with three or more at the six deckers. Get up early for heads up single/dd games. Try to wong its better. And have fun! The ploppies were there in droves!!!!!!!!!

Thanks for the Report
Posted by SammyBoy on 23-Jan-2003 15:04:06 (#2789)

LTC,

Sounds like you did well on SD and DD. Hindsight being 20-20, maybe you should have stayed away from the 6 deckers?

Re: Thanks for the Report
Posted by Learning to count on 23-Jan-2003 16:16:51 (#2790)

Single deck play would have been great all day but due to exposure, value and the ability to keep heads up play we had to move on. I love six deck when you hit a positive deck from the start you can ride it to the end. I actually had a heads on game on a shoe with one deck cut off. All I will say without giving too much discription is that I saw, I conquered, I made a lot of money. The only thing that was noticeable was that several stores were really having good deep discounts on pens. Get there early.

Lucky Ladies Question for Panama Rick or Others
Posted by Coug Fan on 23-Jan-2003 20:15:41 (#2805)

Does anyone know how to interpret the data in Panama Rick's Lucky Lady sims regarding variance. He has a column labeled SD, but that does not seem to be the SD per hand (unless I am missing something). Basically, I am trying to get the variance so that I can compute the correct Kelly wager. Any help is appreciated.

Very good question...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 25-Jan-2003 21:04:55 (#2827)

You bring up a very valid question, in that determining the variance is, of course, a very important factor in sizing our wager for this side bet.

If you read further into Rick's post, he explains the SD figure that is used in the charts.

"...Yes. The EV in 2D for +7 is 1.67%, SD =0.1460 (I should have written SD as a percent). This means there is a 68% chance your actual advantage is between 1.67%-14.60% = -12.93% and 1.67%+14.60% = +16.27%."

You see here, he states that the SD figures he presents were not given in percent, but in raw form. Here, he also provides a simple explanation and example.

Now how can we use this information to determine the size of our wager on the sidebet?

We need to determine the variance, which is simply done, because we know that SD^2 = V (Standard Deviation squared equals Variance...for more info see my post entitled "Root Mean Squared Deviation of Blackjack"). So the SD figures in PR's charts must be converted to percentage (SD * 100), and then squared (SD%^2) to produce the Variance. We can now figure optimal bet size.

I could post a follow-up with an example or two, if necessary.

ANS

Lucky Ladies...??Exploitable sidebet??
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 26-Jan-2003 03:37:06 (#2828)

Umm...maybe I'm missing something here. I *hope* somebody can correct me.

As I looked over Panama Rick's essay again, I wasn't so sure of my above answer, so decided to go ahead and calculate the variance the long way (see Wong's PBJ) to get a solid figure...but than, as I started looking over Rick's numbers a little closer (I hadn't taken the time to go over this essay in detail prior), I intuitively questioned the possible gains from this illeged "exploitable sidebet".

Just a quick tally of the frequencies of favorable situations reveals we only have an edge on the sidebet 1.23% of the time. Hmmm...so we won't actually be placing the bet that often at all, this in itself should show us that there won't be much to be gained.

But, since the expectation figures are quite impressive, it does warrant further research, so let's do some more calculations. Going through the charts and summing (adding) the f * E (frequency times expectation) for each TC given shows that our overall gain for placing the sidebet only in favorable situations is...(drum roll, please)...a WHOPPING .074172%!!!

Now a wonger would obviously see better gains, for more than one reason, but will it be enough to make it exploitable? Some preliminary numbers suggest it will improve the situation exponentially, I estimate the overall gain to be in the neighborhood of .4%...not quite remarkable, but a notable gain, no doubt (I'll try to confirm this number in a follow-up). It is important to note though, that a backcounter would only see a count of +2 <18% of the time with this game, and subsequently, would only make marginally more $$$ on an hourly basis than the play-all player, because the play-all player is effectively "wonging-out" of the sidebet as well, by not placing a wager. Now the backcounter would make more on an hourly basis because he would be off seeking out shoes with higher counts when the sidebet becomes disadvantageous, while the play-all guy is wasting time waiting. A noticable increase ($$$/hr) CAN obviously be be expected, but definitely not the increase of over 5 times that the .074% to .4% figures seem to suggest.

I'd appreciate any comments on my reasoning, and forgive me if I have made any mistakes.

ANS

Lucky Ladies UNDRESSED...part I
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 26-Jan-2003 12:59:32 (#2829)

After looking over PR's essay once again, I *think* I figured out what the SD figures he gives are for, not the actual Standard Deviation of the hand, but the SD of the hand's Expectation. In my opinion (I very well could be wrong), Standard Error would've been the more appropriate term.

While digging around for some more info on the topic I came across this post by Coug Fan, at bj21:

Panama Rick posted this on the free (beginner) page on 5/14/02 in response to my question on the same subject:

"The expected values for the various payouts are (6 decks):

Any 20 = 0.4007
Suited 20 (same suit) = 0.2078
Matched 20 (e.g. 2 jacks of spades) = 0.0928
2 Queens of hearts = 0.0371
2 Queens of hearts with a dealer blackjack = 0.0146

Total = 0.7529
House Edge = 24.71% "

There really is no point in knowing the individual expected value for each payout, because its not as if we can pick and choose which jackpot we want to go for like with some other wagers (ie. craps). Also, I believe PR's use of the combined Expectation of payouts to deduce the house edge to be flawed. According to my calculations:

_Dealt__Payout__Frequency (in %)____Odds____Expectation_
2QH&BJ__1001____0.00146406_____1 in 68,303__.0146552406

_2QH_____125____0.03091763______1 in 3,234__.0386470437

Suit&Rank_19_____0.49468216_______1 in 809___.0939896115

Suited 20___9_____2.57234726________1 in 39___.2315112537

_Any 20____4____10.07000000*_______1 in 10___.4280000000

All Other___-1____86.83058888_______1 in 1.15__-.8683058888

*figure is taken from Wong's PBJ Table D3 due to discrepencies between calculated frequencies of two Ten card hands, and simulation results (see PBJ pages 292-3 for more info). All other frequencies and ev's calculated using basic probability equations.

Now we know the total Expectation is the sum of the Expectations of each and every payout, so we add the right-hand column which totals -.0615027392, so we can deduce that the House Edge on the Lucky Ladies sidebet is -6.15%. In PR's hypo above, he fails to include the negative payouts of non-twenty hands, which alters the outcome drastically (also many of my numbers vary slightly, perhaps someone knows if he calculated these or simmed them?)

So to calculate our total Expectation if wagering only in advantageous situations, with perfect play (no Standard Error), we would sum the right-hand column EXCEPT for the last entry (All Other), which totals to .80680314961, an Expectation of +80.68%. Now remember, we would only see this advantage 1.23% of the time, so we could calculate an overall Expectation of 80.68% * 1.23% = +.992364% with perfect play. This obviously represents the upper limits for this sidebet, and shows us it is impossible to reach a 1% overall advantage.

Now, again let's see what can be gained in real-world play (w/ a high Standard Error). From Panama Rick's essay (TC = true count, ev = expected value, n = # of hands, f = frequency, SE = standard error):

__TC_______ev________n_________f_____SE__
__6.5_____0.50%___797,833____0.38%___13%

__7.0_____2.72%___578,783____0.25%___13%

__7.5_____4.91%___417,682____0.18%___13%

__8.0_____7.08%___313,499____0.13%___14%

__8.5_____9.27%___221,484____0.09%___14%

__9.0____11.57%___170,614____0.07%___15%

__9.5____13.93%___105,475____0.05%___15%

_10.0____16.24%____84,955____0.04%___15%

_10.5____18.73%____60,349____0.03%___16%

_11.0____21.26%____41,676____0.02%___16%

_11.5____23.71%____26,872____0.01%___17%

_12.0____26.24%____19,184____0.01%___17%

_12.5____28.61%____13,330____0.01%___17%

Again, by summing the products of the ev and frequency of each favorable TC (multiply each TC's ev & frequency, then add all together) we get the overall Expectation (or ev) for the sidebet when a wager is placed only when favorable, +.074172%.

As we stated before, this figure would be substantially higher when wonging, only partly due to more frequent higher counts, but more noticably because the ratio of advantageous situations to hands played would be significantly reduced by only playing in positive counts (because of less hands played). Now as noted before, the increase would not be proportional to the decrease in hands played because of other factors involved. This +.074% edge is not really a "fair" figure, since these days, anybody-who's-anybody is Wonging out (?Schlesingering?) by at least a TC of -5.

First we'll examine the case of Wonging out at a TC of -1. We can see from PR's chart that we will be playing 68.34% of the time with this methodology (4.5/6 pen). Now to determine the percentage of advantageous hands (still speaking of the sidebet), out of played hands, we must divide each TC's frequency by 68.34%. The product of this frequency, and its TC's ev, will be our overall Expectation.

continued...

ANS

Re: Lucky Ladies UNDRESSED...part I 1/2
Posted by Adam N Subtractum on 26-Jan-2003 18:33:37 (#2831)

continued...

So it's clear that we can substantially reduce the ratio of hands played to advantageous sidebets by Wonging out,which technically increases the Expectation, BUT this will not affect our hourly win rate WHATSOEVER. This is a clear example of the reason why conventional Wonging cannot increase gains to the degree that the ratio of hands played to advantageous sidebets would imply. But, there will be a gain as we stated previously, we just have to approximate to what degree.

Some side notes, the link below leads to a company pushing the sidebet, and gives some figures and lists the different payouts available (a good resource). The funny part is, the House Edge figures that they give suffer the same flaw as the figure given by Rick. You MUST sum the products of *all possible outcomes* and frequencies. I've really tried to convince myself that I am in err here (especially seeing PR's #'s are close to the vendors), but I just can't see it. The calculations were very tedious, but I always triple check, and any differences between mine & PR's #'s are slight, so I don't believe that to be a factor. A Google search supplied an old post by the Mayor stating a HE of around 11% to 17%, but the post wasn't that recent and I don't *think* it mentioned the payouts used. Perhaps he will comment on this.

In part II, we'll try to develop a "brute force" Wonging attack to capitalize on the potential gains. Also, I have a few ideas, including some *minor* base count modifications, and *very* simple sidecounts that might provide a notable improvement, even in the play-all case. After that, I'll post a final follow-up showing how to calculate the Variance and size wagers optimally for the sidebet. This is a very important factor...novices taking the hefty ev figures and running with them will no doubt drop them, trip, and land smack dab on their face if they are not adjusting for Variance. And I'm not talking about a V of 1.32...some initial figures suggest a Variance of around 20 (and if you think that's bad, I've been contemplating dividing by the ratio of the winning wager to a losing one, ala Thorp w/ roulette :-).

ANS

ps: We can clearly see the presence of high Variance, high Standard Error, and low Correlation in the fact that we receive winning hands 13.2% of the time, yet only perceive an advantage 1.32% of the time! It seems fairly obvious we should try to better equip ourselves to attack this shoe.

Re: Lucky Ladies UNDRESSED...part I 1/2
Posted by Learning to count on 27-Jan-2003 09:26:43 (#2835)

This is definately an archive post. Excellent dicsussion on this side bet. Lucky ladies is by far the most ineteresting of the current trend of ploppy stocking stuffers that the evil "genuises" of the gaming world have bestowed upon the gambling public. I wait for your next cornacopia of BJ knowledge and what strategy you have devised to unlock the secrets of the ladies. Your math looks very good I have learned a lot. The two queens are devious but do come up frequently. I have experienced them personally once with a bet and several times near and far with out a wager. Excellent post.

Thanks LTC...and some additional comments..
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 28-Jan-2003 00:38:38 (#2842)

Thanks for your interest in my work on this matter LTC. I have gone over my figures once again, and I do believe them to be accurate.

As for your point about the Queens, I believe your observations correspond with the numbers, as 1 in 3,234 hands is effectively 1 in 32.34 hours (assuming 100/hr), which depending on how much action the sidebet receives, may in fact, seem to occur, and subsequently hit, quite frequently.

By keeping a simple sidecount of the Queens of Hearts (only 6 cards, assuming 6 decks), we can improve the Expectation of _this particular_ payout substantially, but of course only marginally improve on our overall Expectation for the sidebet.

Unfortunately, this seems like the only payout that can be somewhat exploited on a practical basis (assuming conventional methods). Of course you would have a better idea on the odds of the jackpot payout (2QH & DBJ) if your system includes an Ace sidecount (as well as our QH side), and of course you could get a better idea of the odds of the Suited, and Suited & Ranked payouts by employing a type of "selective sidecounting" (dubbed by Ted Forrester), but both cases are just not practical enough to deem feasable.

Some additional comments on the point I brought up about Wonging out, and its null effect on our hourly win rate (see part 1 1/2)...there are some points that must be clarified. Firstly, I was assuming Wonging out for bathroom breaks, phone calls, etc. NOT Wonging out, and seeking new shoes (like I should have:-). Obviously in that case we WOULD improve our hourly win rate, as we would be spending more time per hour in positive territory than one just taking bathroom breaks, etc. I am using on an approximation from my Wong In/Out studies to give us an idea what kind of improvement we can expect for both cases.

**Further Notes:

a. In order for the tables in "UNDRESSED Part I" to format properly, it may be necessary to minimize the menu to the left.

b. The link I provided in my last post didn't go through for some reason, I'll try to post it again in a follow-up.

ANS

Re: Thanks LTC...and some additional comments..
Posted by Learning to count on 28-Jan-2003 10:16:11 (#2852)

I would think that at a high TC that making the side bet would result in a positive result. I mean and I am only guessing (from the results of the indices I have used) and the results, that a hand of twenty is prevalent at times and can add extra EV. The actuall dealing of a twin QofH is a approx.3000 to one possibility. But add the other possibilities of twenty I think this is a good gamble(at a High TC). That is why when wonging in and experiencing climbing counts it may be a good side bet. And only if you bet the max Green chip.

re: LTC...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 28-Jan-2003 12:21:02 (#2858)

I think maybe you misunderstood me, re-read if you get a chance. By saying QH was the only payout that could be practically exploited (to a small degree), I was speaking of increasing our edge through additional means, ie. sidecounts, modifications, etc. ON TOP of our base count info. Obviously frequency of two card twenties, and subsequently the other payouts, is going to increase in higher counts, that is the reason the bet is exploitable in the first place.

ANS

Re: re: LTC...
Posted by Learning to count on 28-Jan-2003 16:23:49 (#2861)

No I agree with you 100%. I side track the QH"s. It is necessity. Your strike number will change depending on the weight of QH's light or heavy as the cards are laid out. Excellent article thanks. I am still basically math weak but I am learning. Also ace knowledge is good to have but I feel that being more apprised of the TC is more important.

uston ss count
Posted by hannibal on 24-Jan-2003 21:09:00 (#2815)

I'VE USED THE USTON SS COUNT SUCCESSFULLY FOR SEVERAL YEARS PLAYING SINGLE DECK GAMES EXCLUSIVELY, IN NORTHERN NEVADA CASINOS. THIS CARD COUNTING STRATEGY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SHUNNED BY THE CARD COUNTING COMMUNITY. AM I WASTING MY TIME UTILIZING AN INEFFECTIVE AND OR OBSOLETE COUNTING STRATEGY?

It's just out of print *NM*
Posted by T-Hopper on 24-Jan-2003 22:12:39 (#2816)

Re: It's just out of print
Posted by hannibal on 24-Jan-2003 23:24:34 (#2817)

OH NO IT ISN'T. THE USTON SS COUNT CONTINUES TO BE MARKETED BY GAMBLING TIMES MAGAZINE.

The Game of Death
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 25-Jan-2003 07:22:45 (#2820)

Reminds me of Bruce Lee's last movie the game of death. When I first saw it I thought that someone was trying to capitalize on Ustons death making up some fake count, but it looks like the "Zen" version of Uston after the clones got to him. In his mental state, who knows what was going on. Howie Hughes all over again.

"A mind is a terrible thing to waste"

Rob,that was the post of the year.Great. *NM*
Posted by hammer on 25-Jan-2003 11:36:29 (#2822)

A night in Reno...
Posted by Syph on 25-Jan-2003 13:46:40 (#2823)

Warning! Warning!

You have been warned.

The Peppermill, early hours, and the night had not been going well. Hundreds upon hundreds had been layed on the table with no effect. The bankroll was hurting, and so was Syph.

Then...She walked in. Sat down beside me, and smiled. My thoughts raced to the question all counter's ask themselves at such moments:

"What would Kenny do?"

(Special thanks to Alex Mundy)

Ask any counter after hundreds of hours of full-time play how socially functional he is, and well...we hurt. Nonetheless, this is our turf, and we can shine.

Slapping a few hundred more on the table, Syph proceeds to snatch the cards mid-air (a practice my former mentor ZG had more than once admonished me for), and spreading from 1-3 hands with impunity, I start climbing back up.

The girl is impressed.

The pit is not.

A tap on the shoulder ends the session.

"Why are you leaving?" Pumpkin asks.

"I am no longer allowed to play. I am too great of a player." I respond

"What? They can't do that!"

"I assure you, they can, they have, and in the future, they will again."

"That's bullshit!"

"It's part of the game...are you hungry? I could tell you all about it?"

A request for a dinner comp doesn't even elicit a smile from the pit critters.

* * *

Dinner went well, we discussed Christianity, Buddhism, Grace, phenomenology, and blackjack.

* * *

Daisy drove me to the Atlantis after that. As play started, I took a fairly aggressive approach (even for my style of play, which shuns cover), and quickly half the table (no, I don't normally play at crowded tables, but I needed an audience) is asking for suggestions.

Splitting tens, I receive the admiration from everyone when the dealer busts...

"Hey, great play!" and "You're really good!" comments my peers.

"He's a professional!" pipes in Daisy.

10 minutes later, I receive a tap on the shoulder.

* * *

Railcity, the pit boss despises me from the get go.

(I whisper to Daisy, "12 minutes and I'm history.)

Consolidating 3 bets into on (with a few chips stacked on top for good measure), Syph receives a blackjack.

* * *

"What I find odd," I mention as we walk to the car, "is that he not only barred me, but you as well. You weren't even playing."

"That's bullshit!" mutters Daisy.

I like Daisy.

* * *

We arrive at my place, it's 4am, I've been backed off 3 joints in 6 hours, but I met Daisy.

"Would you like to..uhm...come up and see my blackjack books?"

"OK"

* * *

Daisy was an angel, I'm not sure I'll see her again. My lifestyle doesn't really allow for another, but I felt I did the right thing.

Even as a full-time player, the lifestyle must allow a certain quality of life, and after a little deliberation, I'll happily get backed off a hundred joints to spend another night with a Daisy.

I'm certain Kenny would approve.

Best wishes to all,
Syph

Should have been posted on the Oprah Winfrey page *NM*
Posted by Alexander Mundy on 25-Jan-2003 19:42:47 (#2824)

overkill to impress -why?
Posted by hammer on 26-Jan-2003 21:28:17 (#2833)

Trying to get kicked out to impress.
The pit ignored you when losing too huh, of course..

Nice Story! *NM*
Posted by SammyBoy on 25-Jan-2003 19:46:34 (#2825)

Play on, Playa!
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 25-Jan-2003 20:22:44 (#2826)

I especially liked the "What would Kenny do?" line...lmfao.

ANS

Re: A night in Reno...
Posted by Learning to count on 27-Jan-2003 07:03:58 (#2834)

Sounds like your personal EV went to the ceiling that night. Who said counters were all numbers and thats all. One note of caution though. I just finished Black Jack Autumn. There is a story of a counter who met a lady in the same way. When he woke up the next morning he was 10K short in his bankroll. She had slipped him a mickey when they were having a drink.

A few years back a close freind (Ploppy) of mine was having one of those extended winning sessions on the five dollar slots. To the tune of 9K. I was holding his coins when a fellow standing by started talking to him and emediately started trying to convince him to let him hold his winnings. My friend turned to the guy and told him to get lost. There are a lot of thieves in Vegas and Reno. make sure before you party the loot goes in your casino safety deposit box. Watch OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!

Re: A night in Reno...
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Jan-2003 11:04:16 (#2836)

What a sweet story...

But what did you learn about blackjack from the experience? 8-)

--Mayor

probably
Posted by gorilla player on 10-Dec-2004 09:54:06 (#11201)

that as you work to impress the women, you inadvertently work harder to impress the pit critters. :)

my wife has gotten me in trouble more than once that way, suggesting I do things that would attract more attention than Al Capone walking through the gaming floor. :)

Thx...
Posted by Syph on 28-Jan-2003 00:47:50 (#2843)

Yes, it was a nice change of pace. But, I suppose if you play long enough just about everything will happen, at least once.

And thanks, LTC, regarding the warning. I confess, when we first entered my room, I was unsure as to what to do with the bankroll (I generally keep the whole bundle on me, in cash...I know, I know...).

I fretted needlessly, she was honest, pure, and nice.

Still, it marked the beginning of a rather nasty flux, which lasted for a few days. So much so, that I'm currently taking a small sabbatical from classic BJ play and I'm hitting the I-casinos.

It's a nice change, a touch dull, but it's working for me.

As for what I learned that night. Well, Elliot, never before has the importance of maximum spreads, deep penetration, and one-on-one play assumed such a pivotal role in my success.

(sorry, couldn't resist)

But as a caution to aspiring counters, a lifestyle devoted to obscurity, a slight theoretical advantage, the resulting swings, and the (relatively) fascinating psychology of engagement that develops in the field, is perhaps better left to a saint than a driven personality.

You have been warned!

Good cards to everyone,
Syph

A counter in love! Wow! *NM*
Posted by V-man on 31-Jan-2003 22:15:45 (#2899)

Want to come up and see my Blackjack Books? LMAO! *NM*
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 03-Feb-2003 09:31:59 (#2929)

newby
Posted by barefoot on 26-Jan-2003 15:29:51 (#2830)

i'm fairly new to 21. have read "take the money and run" and "bj for blood." proficient w/ basic strategy and hi-lo count. can anybody give me their experience w/ the omega II system? what's the difference between omega II and canfield master? thanx

Re: newby
Posted by phantom007 on 26-Jan-2003 19:35:46 (#2832)

Omega II appears to be the same as Canfield Master Count. Indicies may be different, but not likely statistically significant.

AOII is GREAT for SD, OK for DD, and "just a pain" for all other decks.

I personally use AOII for SD, with Ace-side Count, and when I am feeling energetic, also, an "8 Side-Count (for Ins. Purposes). For DD, I use same, without "8 Side-Count" about 1/2 the time, and Revere Systemic Count for the rest. For 4+ Decks, I use Revere Systemic.

Having recently abandoned AOII in Multi-Deck, in favour of Revere Systemic, it appears that I am doing better. Not enough trials to tell. It is just a Pain in the Ass to do an Ace Side-Count in a 6D game.

Please study Revere Systemic for MD games....2-7=+1, 8=0, and 9,10,A=-1.
96% Betting and 56% Playing Efficiencies are not bad "trade-offs", in return for ease of use and relative lack of errors.

Stick to AOII for SD, and maybe, DD.

phantom007

thanx phantom
Posted by barefoot on 28-Jan-2003 10:12:55 (#2851)

thanx for the input phantom. after lots of reading i'm thinking the aoII might be to advanced for me at present. also, considering my starting bankroll, it seems i should start at the very lowest minimum bet. there are several $2 and $3 6D games w/ good rules close to me. you said you like a revere system for multi-deck. i've heard and read alot about K-O. have you used K-O? thanx

You are welcome!
Posted by phantom007 on 28-Jan-2003 19:16:51 (#2864)

I hope I have been some help. No, I have never played KO...after buying 20+ BJ books, I decided it was "time to master" what I had, instead of my continual looking "for a easier way to profits".

Certainly, there is nothing wrong with KO. I am just comfortable and satisfied with "where I am at"...using AOII for SD, and some DD, and using RSC for the rest.

However, if you are just starting out, I suggest that you learn a "COMPLEX" system, such as AOII with Ace-side-count, FIRST. Should take you about 100-200 hours of practice to get proficient, at least to the SD and DD levels.

Then, if you ever decide to go to a simpler Level I system for MD games, it will take you about 100-200 MINUTES of practice to get proficient at same.

Conversely, if you start out "Simple", it may be difficult for many to "make the switch" to a higher level system.......see the post regarding same by Parker in the "Forbidden Zone".

Again, hope to have been helpful. But who am I...I still think that Progression BJ has a place (but just in ++ decks)!

phantom007.

Pitboss accusation, 1st time. Need advice!!
Posted by Qdini on 27-Jan-2003 13:58:00 (#2838)

Hi,

I just recently got heat from a pitboss at a casino
in Santa Barbara. Me and my friends went out yesterday and played
together (Both of them beginners) and basically what happened was this.
I was not playing myself and was sitting next to a friend and coaching
him how to play. The 3rd friend was copying his betting strategy exactly.
So whenever 2nd person sat out a hand, the 3rd did the same (okay I admit
it's pretty stupid to advise hopping hands....but hey, I learn from my mistakes)
Result? The lady dealer got royally pissed I guess because in her
mind, we were probably pissing off the other players and that would
cost her her TIPS. So she decided to call over the pitboss and
told him that we were hopping in and out of hands and how I was just
sitting there coaching my friend and taking up all the table space
so that other people couldn't join in and play. The pitboss
basically said, "you know that you guys are stealing money out of
the casino right? And card counting IS illegal...". Seeing as to
how this is my first time experience where I've been accused of this
bullshit, I blurted out that "Well what were doing (hopping in and
out of hands) isn't illegal right? I mean I've seen people do it
all the time here. I'm just waiting for the good cards to come.
When I feel and unlucky streak going, I stay out". Pitboss repeats,
"But what your doing is basically stealing from the casino. Thats
what card counting is.." I didn't really respond to his accusation
and I said, "But hey (turned to lady dealer) if you want more space and don't like us here, we'll go to another table...." Pitboss didn't say a word and went back to whatever he was doing. Question is that 1) how I should have handled it? 2) Should I have directly responded to the pitboss accusation? 3) Did I handle the situation incorrectly and is there's something better
I could have done?... Thnx in advance for advice!

Regards,
Qdini

Re: Pitboss accusation, 1st time. Need advice!!
Posted by Learning to count on 27-Jan-2003 18:33:32 (#2839)

Whoa there Hombre calm down. I know how you feel. First of all remember the old saying you draw more flies with stinky dog crap. If you are aspiring to be a counter then remember; Learn what causes heat, dont create heat; avoid heat; leave on a positive note.

People remember discomfort and annoyance rather than a happy encounter. Sorry to sound so gushy but the dealer and PB will remember the young upstarts and thier attempt to "steal" from the casino. Listen the casino worker culture is very protective of one thing..."thier greed".

You reacted on emotion. An advantage player has to be "COLD". A counter has to also be a chameleon. You have to see what comes at you and act accordingly. If you react with heat you will get fire. Face it the casinos have been given a free hand in how they run thier business.

What you did is what you did. You can't change what happned now. What does not kill us makes us strong. Learn from this incident and figure out a better way to lessen the problem from getting out of hand. This was more evidence that many casino workers are trained monkeys and wouldnt know a counter from a lucky ploppy. Next time find a easier path. The dealer was a moron and the pit boss will never make it in a big casino. Take my word the big casinos are not interested in three guys learning how to play out loud. They are worried about a person who comes in and plays perfectly and wins...big money.

Early in my career I was playing a late late night game and I was actually whispering the count. The dealer heard me and started to make fun of me. He yelled all the way down the pit. "Hey we gotta pro counter here" I died inside. Not only was I in shock but I was embarassed as well. The pit boss came over and said "Is he winning". The dealer said "yeah". The pit boss retorted "How much?" "20 bucks I think" said the dealer. The pit boss came over and looked at me. I started saying "101, 102, 103, 104, 105, Come on dealer I need more cards". The pit boss cracked up and said well when he becomes a millionaire he can take us out to dinner. I played for three more hours. At best what are you going to get out of walking away. Nothing more than a life incident to add to your experience.

Now that you have experienced your first heat you need to read about how to act in a casino environment. CASINO COMPORTMENT. Read Black Jack Secrets by Stanford Wong, Beyond Counting by James Grosjean, Million Dollar Black jack by Ken Uston.

My own personal advice is to learn how to get on the dealers good side. I have been able to befreind dealers with out tipping and get the best thing you can get in any game PENETRATION. You have a good strong disposition use that anger to perfect your game and grifting abilities. The best story I have ever read is when ZG was able to convince a pit crew that he was a casino owner. What an evil move...pure genius.

Re: Pitboss accusation, 1st time. Need advice!!
Posted by Qdini on 27-Jan-2003 20:51:14 (#2840)

Hey Learning To Count,

Thanks for the comforting advice. You're right, its all about learning experience and avoiding the same situation next time. By the way, what should I have said to the pit boss's accusations?

~ Qdini

Re: Pitboss accusation, 1st time. Need advice!!
Posted by Learning to count on 28-Jan-2003 07:55:44 (#2849)

One thing you could have said is "If I was a professional then why the hell would I be playing in a dump like this"; or "Do you really think any one can count six decks"?;... or "sir my dad is frank stanton and he is a veteran Black Jack player and he told me that with the right proggession I could own the casino.

All joking aside better to back off then cause an arguement. Also if ever cornered by casino toug guys name, rank, and serial number is all you are required to give. Last court ruling I heard is that they cannot force you to produce identification. You may be asked to leave because you cannot prove you are over the age limit. Even the cops need a reason to stop you and ask you for identification. In Nevada you are requiered to have ID. Producing it by order of a law enforcement needs a little more than suspicion of winning money in a casino. They need to establish that there is suspicion of a crime. If they progress into thier investigation then they should obviously have a legitimate concern of criminal action. If they go through the routine of identifying you it is routine. Later on if something was to happen such as an arrest then they would have prove and communicate thier reasoning of why they did what they did. Bad invetigative procedure can result in bad law enforcement which could result in civil liability/civil rights complaints. Sorry to say in Vegas the police have been known to over extend thier investigative powers. Being Safe is to produce ID to Law enforcement ONLY! Casino rent a cops are not law enforcement even if they believe they are.

One other thought....it sounds like they harassed you about your wonging in and out. Strange I just played 50 plus hours and sat out numerous hands when the deck was negative. When the dealer asked if I was playing I always said "nah I got bad voodoo; cards are a dyin. I wait for shuffle. Maybe better JOU JOU!" The dealer smiled and kept dealing. If they do harrass me for not playing I get up and leave. You never mentioned that they were kicking you out. Maybe you should have said; "Sir I am sorry for my style of play and I am sorry that you percieve me as a professional card player. I will now stop playing like I was playing and I will play how you want me to". Sit down buy in play all and count your ass off. The dummy wouldnt know the difference. Make sure it is a good game first though. LTC

Re: Pitboss accusation, 1st time. Need advice!!
Posted by JR on 28-Jan-2003 02:32:51 (#2845)

OK, I want to read the story too--the one where ZG convinced the pit crew that he was a casino owner--this has got to be good! Where is it? Thanks in advance.

Ahh, yes... "Clever cover ploy #128"... *LINK*
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 28-Jan-2003 03:32:39 (#2846)

...definitely one of my zg favorites.

Re: Post #128
Posted by BradRod on 28-Jan-2003 10:32:40 (#2853)

I would rather have not been aware of that link. I too found the story a bit disturbing.

The casino personnel that I have encountered are as much victims of the casino establishment as are the hapless gamblers who get lured into its web. I try to treat them all with respect and dignity they deserve (of course some of them are just real ###holes in their own personal right but, that is a different matter. Certainly not true of a majority of them). They may be the tools of the casino but, in that role they are being manipulated and coerced into enforcing rules, policies, promoting deceits they have no real personal or vested interest in.

Casinos tend to be the major employer in areas with no other real prospect for economic viability. Las Vegas of course operates on a different model. Generally there is no other viable opportunity for employment of the local population. This population then is at the mercy of the casinos practices and policies. If they dont go along they go jobless. They have to put up with pressure from within the casino establishment, work in an unhealthful, carcinogen filled environment, put up with all manner of unsavory,rude and abusive clientelle. This takes place under a highly regulated, impersonal and demoralizing regime. And do it all with a smile on their face and a perpetually bright disposition.

These are workers struggling to raise a family, cover their expenses, just survive. None can hope to achieve loftier ambitions or lift themselves out of their current struggle and misery. Anyone with that capability would not be working these jobs. These are people only struggling to survive.

This labor force is another social casualty of the greed of the casino establishment. That establishment is indifferent to the feelings and personal ambitions of these virtually indentured servants. It is not damaged and is, in fact, totally indifferent to any barbs or jabs thrust at them. Those only hurt the individual and only on a personal level.

If this endeavor, of pursuing the advantage play, is a crusade for social justice then we should not use it as a vehicle for self promotion and aggrandizement at the expense of its most captive victims.

Cover #128
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 28-Jan-2003 11:12:45 (#2854)

"If this endeavor, of pursuing the advantage play, is a crusade for social justice then we should not use it as a vehicle for self promotion and aggrandizement at the expense of its most captive victims."

Holy jumpin! A man after my own heart. You sound like a Canadian tourist guy! Take that as a compliment. Some dealers take their job too seriously at times, and can go overboard trying to impress their PB. I work with people that are like that, and then I also work with people on "active retirement." Clock punchers. Most dealers and players are defeated victims of the 9 to 5 world like we once were....smile

Laying down some cover is one thing, but there are nice ways of doing that. Cover 128 seemed to work for the personality this counter was portraying at that time. You have to live with yourself at the end of the day, so I too would suggest a nicer method of advantage playing. I've been called a wimp before, and told that nice guys finish last. Let me tell you this:

It is always blurted by some wise guy who thinks he is a big shot winner and the only way to get there is by being mean hearted. I have found that by being kind and honest I get much farther ahead with less effort. That is what I call advantage play. We may finish last, but we finish brilliantly!

#128...best ploy I've ever heard of, hands down..
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 28-Jan-2003 12:07:42 (#2857)

...and now that I really think about it, the funniest story I think I've ever heard. Just my opinion. If I did by chance happen to find a situation similar, I now know how to react, and would not hesitate to extract as much $$$ as possible out of the situation. It's a tough business.

ANS

Agreed Brilliant Ploy
Posted by BradRod on 28-Jan-2003 13:11:24 (#2860)

Just feel it needs a little fine tuning

Canadian Casino Tourist
Posted by BradRod on 28-Jan-2003 18:02:27 (#2863)

Rob,

Would you happen to know what the current policy re counters is in the provincial casinos? I seem to remember reading somewhere that casinos are not permitted to keep counters out. Or maybe it was that counting is not illegal ? Have you heard of what action if any they would take ?

Re: Canadian Casino Tourist
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 28-Jan-2003 19:49:22 (#2865)

The down low up here is that normally they don't turf you, but they will move the cut card up on you. This may piss you off but at that point they feel totally secure and go limp on themselves. I usually enjoy cutting out bigger chunks of negative decks and keep playing tracking the goodies and flat betting my estimated TC for that section. They get more pissed and start to limit you from playing more than one spot or backing other players hands or splitting/doubling. Then they get really lame when you change tables. But if you go to the parking lot, wet your hair down, come in the side door with a different shirt on and go to the $50 and up pit, you lose them. With casinos 2 hours away, it's easier to travel by cable to the casino to play one deck. ;>

"I love goooooooooooooooold!" Vierd eh??

Old Iron Sides
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 27-Jan-2003 22:58:23 (#2841)

Never admit you are counting. Act the way you would if they came to tell you they don't want you playing their blazing 7's slot machines.....shocked. Comply and act like you have been mistreated, and go. You must admit you came into harbor at high noon with your pirate flags flying and your cannons wailing. No doubt they fired back. Next time come in under the cover of darkness, get right up beside them then blaze them at the water line, set your sails and be half way home before the wicked witch of the green felt table knew what hit her up side da hayed.

Re: Pitboss accusation, 1st time. Need advice!!
Posted by The Mayor on 28-Jan-2003 11:46:23 (#2856)

Do I know you? You should stop by my office some time and introduce yourself.

Obviously, when you are trying to play with an advantage you need to be a little more discrete. This is a huge understatement 8-)

--Mayor

Hizzoner, Statesman of theGame *NM*
Posted by BradRod on 28-Jan-2003 13:08:55 (#2859)

Re: Pitboss accusation, 1st time. Need advice!!
Posted by Qdini on 29-Jan-2003 20:22:14 (#2878)

Hey Mayor,

Hehe, I don't know if it was you or not, but I think it might have been you who threatened to shut down my isp port in the on campus dorms for running a server? Maybe I have the wrong guy...cuz I remember is either Jacob Eliot or Eliot Jacob...Anyways, yes I would definitely like to meet you. Where's your office and when's your office hours?

~ Qdini

Re: Pitboss accusation, 1st time. Need advice!!
Posted by The Mayor on 29-Jan-2003 21:48:43 (#2879)

I don't control servers on campus, and never have been involved in such a confrontation with anyone.

I am in the CS department, look up my office in the campus directory,

Hope to see you soon,

--Mayor

KO Preferred vs. KO Full set
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 28-Jan-2003 01:12:04 (#2844)

The following is a re-post of an answer of mine to a question posted on AP.com, where it got no responses. Figured someone here may find it of interest.

Unfortunately, the KO book doesn't really provide a good comparison of the gains that can be made by using an extended set vs. the Preferred set.

In the book the respective expectations (unfortunately they do not include a risk-weighted comparo) for Preferred and Full are .62 and .63 (6D,DOA,S17,75%pen,1-8). This comparison shows an increase of a mere 1.61% to our expectation. Obviously, someone looking at these figures would deduce that the gains are probably not worth the effort. It should be noted though, that the "illeged" KO Full set is comprised of only 44 plays...not quite a huge mental feat to put to memory.

Now let's make a more fair comparison, using a more complete "Full" set, generated by some up-to-date, quality software. (The figures I am using for this particular case come from Dr. Org's "Understanding Knockout Blackjack" article, and were generated with the condition of risk-aversion.) This time, using around 80 indices and the same exact conditions as in the KO book, except for a 1-10 spread, we achieve expectations for Preferred and Full of .73 and .78, respectively. This shows us that we increase our expectation by 6.85% by using the Full set, over 4 times the increase from the Full set in the KO book!

This works out to about $1.75 extra on your $25/hour win rate...is it worth it? That's a relative question, and one only you can answer for yourself.

If your still not moved by these figures, an increase of over 10% could be attained (using the same amount of indices) with only a MINIMAL increase in difficulty...see my upcoming post at cardcounter.com, to be entitled "21st Century True-Counting".

ANS

ps: Note that the improvement would've been even more noticable if the 1-8 spread used in the first example was employed.

Note also that with a more optimal system and indices, such as those developed by T-Hopper, the effects will be even greater.

ANS

Re: KO Preferred vs. KO Full set
Posted by CanKen on 31-Jan-2003 19:04:49 (#2895)

1) You mention KO Full comprising 44 plays. My 1998 edition of the book, p.164,5 only shows about 22-25 depending on number of decks. What am I missing?

2) Where can I find Dr. Org's "Understanding Knockout Blackjack" article?

3) Ive been using KO (quite successfully) for about 2 years in the local 8-deck game, and have customized to suit myself. One thing I've done is develop my own method for indices near TC=0 for balanced systems. I assume that these counts would be roughly equal to a neutral count in KO. But being a long way from the pivot point, they depend greatly on the number of decks already played. So I've learned to estimate the number of decks played and from that and the running count determine whether the count is at, above, or below neutral. Then I play hands like 16vs10, 12vs4 etc. accordingly. Does this make sense?

Re: KO Preferred vs. KO Full set
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 01-Feb-2003 05:49:58 (#2900)

CK, e-mail me. Scroll down a couple threads to my post "sorry brad" I think it is...my address is in there.

ANS

Errata to Wong's "Professional Blackjack"...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 28-Jan-2003 04:48:38 (#2847)

I recently spoke to Stanford Wong about an error I discovered in his "Single Deck Shuffle Study", pages 224-231. He assured me the error would be corrected in the next edition of PBJ, but for those who have current editions, the error is disclosed here.

Stanford states on page 230:

"In a completely random shuffle the probability of three initially-adjacent cards finishing up in that order with no more than one card separating them is .8 per ten decks; _this study got one, which is not significantly different from expectation._"

Note the underlined statement. Extensive analysis of Tables 87 & 88, found on pages 226 & 227, reveals that the figure given here (1 per 10 decks) is incorrect, and in fact, this sequence occurs 5 times per 10 decks, over 6 times the expectation for a random shuffle!

Here are the "tags" of the 5 three card sequences maintained in order with only one card separating after the shuffle:

shuffle 3: 8,9,10
shuffle 4: 42,43,44
shuffle 5: 36,37,38
shuffle 7: 5,6,7
shuffle 7: 47,48,49

I explained to Stanford the magnitude of this, in that I believe even this fairly thorough shuffle (R,R,S,R) can be exploitable by sequencing techniques, and that this data tends to support that notion.

ANS

Re: Errata to Wong's "Professional Blackjack"...
Posted by Divide M. N. Multiply on 28-Jan-2003 09:38:39 (#2850)

Very interesting

Scorpion gives the eye a black eye
Posted by Scorpion on 28-Jan-2003 17:07:35 (#2862)

This war with surveillance started when they faxed my picture to other Las Vegas strip properties without my permission in the 90's. I got unwanted harrassment because of this and vowed that I would kick their asses in another game right under their stinking noses. I am now punching them in the mouth at baccarat using a method that no one knows about. Instead of me winning a few thousand at blackjack, I am up over $100,000.00 at baccarat thanks to the mean spirits in
surveillance. The eye is blinded when I play and maybe one day I will share my method with the world to destroy the Strip.

Re: Scorpion gives the eye a black eye
Posted by Learning to count on 29-Jan-2003 10:17:43 (#2871)

Sounds sinister! Your method is not the dreaded secret of "the flaw"...al la francisco stanton... is it???? Sounds like a good day to troll! Any one have some bait?

Re: Scorpion gives the eye a black eye
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 29-Jan-2003 10:58:14 (#2873)

"I am now punching them in the mouth at baccarat using a method that no one knows about"

Baccarat advantage play is not new, and the ($practical$) techniques provide extremely high edge opportunities, yes, though are very infrequent in occurance.

ANS

Streak sidebet
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 28-Jan-2003 22:44:00 (#2867)

Does anyone have any information on the "Streak" sidebet? It is licenced by a company called MAO gaming. I'm assuming they are a new firm. Their website is under construction and their email address is at msn.com. Has anyone seen this? Is this thing exploitable?

Thanks,
Felix

Re: Streak sidebet
Posted by SammyBoy on 29-Jan-2003 16:04:33 (#2876)

I've seen it in Mississippi but did not bother playing it.

"How to see 'Blind Pitch'...EXPOSED" Part I
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 29-Jan-2003 03:37:15 (#2868)

The following is a re-post of my response to a thread concerning the latest in casino "counter counter-measures" at AP.com, on the"Heartland 21" page. This counter-measure is dubbed "Blind Pitch", and invlolves the dealer not exposing his hole card when the player/s bust. This affects a deeply dealt double deck game to the tune of 3%, at first glance a minimal amount, but after seeing the effects of marginal increases/decreases in penetration presented in my post, I think you may change your thinking. Not to worry though, as I have conducted excruciating calculations that STRONGLY indicate that this effect can be neutralized to the point of near nill, and I present the methodology to apply theses figures to real-world play.

Enjoy,

ANS

*note that the menu on your left may need to be minimized in order for the tables presented to format properly.

<><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>

I've been viewing the threads here lately pertaining to the "Blind Pitch" game being used in some reservation joints. Intuitively I perceived a gain could be achieved if attacked in the appropriate manner, and I have calculated hard numbers I believe verify this notion.

I noted several misconceptions in the recent threads, most importantly the underestimation of the power of penetration. It seems we are constantly told about the upmost importance of penetration, yet there seems to be a notion going around that penetration increases in smaller increments (like the assumed 3%) won't have a substantial effect on Win Rate and DI...au contrair, in fact I intend to show the effect will be, dare I say, dramatic.

Another incorrect assumption I noticed was the Kid's figure on player bust frequency, this is actually around 19%. Once we get the details straightened out, I do believe it is indeed possible to sim this game, but it very well may require Norm's software to do so.

I'll start with the value of penetration rather than the cost of the mistakes, so the bored reader who wongs out of this post early
gets at least something good out of it.

Let us first and foremost determine the effective penetration of this game. Since we know our bust frequency is approximately 19%, and this game is getting 85+% penetration, we can calculate:

[(104 * .85) / 5.4] * .19 = 3.11037037035

Which is the number of times we will bust, through one pack, and subsequently the number of hole cards that will go unseen through one pack. Now our approximate loss in effective penetration is found to be:

3.11 / 104 = 2.99%

Since in the hypo we are receiving >85% pen, we can round up to %3 for accuracy, as well as simplicity. Now it has been expressed by some in prior related threads that this decrease is not of a notable amount, so let's take a good look at the effects of penetration.

Unfortunately, the only extensive data I have on effects of pen on WR, DI, etc., is for shoe games, but I believe this will only tend to UNDERestimate the effects on the double deck game in our hypo. You can see in this first link, to a chart by Norm Wattenberger and his Qfit software, the effects of penetration on an 8 deck game w/ KO, play-all and wonging:

http://bjmath.com/bin-cgi/bjmath.pl?read=3565

Now anylizing the data in the 84%-88% range reveals:

pen__84.5%_____87.5%____

WR___1.59______1.84_____

DI___4.27______4.80_____

You can clearly see here that the mere 3% increase in penetration increases Win Rate by 15.7%!!! and DI by 12.4%!!! And as I stated prior, I believe these effects will be even greater in the double deck case.

In that same post, you'll find the wonging case for the same conditions, which gives figures of:

pen__84.5%_____87.5%____

WR___1.03______1.17_____

DI___6.16______6.61_____

We see in this case Win Rate increases by 13.6%, and DI increases by 7.3%, again with a mere 3% increase in pen. Convinced yet? OK, I got another:

http://bjmath.com/bin-cgi/bjmath.pl?read=3544

Again, compliments of resident "Master" Norm W. and his masterpiece Qfit software, this is another wonging case, except with 6 decks and hi-lo.

pen__82.3%_____85.3%____

WR___2.50______2.76_____

DI___9.72_____10.55_____

Here we see gains of 10.4% and 8.5%, for Win rate and DI, respectively. If you get nothing else from this post at all, "get" the importance of small increases in penetration.

One more for the doubters, again courtesy of Norm W. Importance of pen is clearly seen here.

http://qfit.com/wrphh1.jpg

Now that we have determined that there is substantial ev to be gained (or should we say reclaimed, in this situation) by increasing penetration by three cards, so the next step is to determine the cost of the errors of our play strategy.

First let's look at some numbers derived from Thorp's BTD, page 191, Table 2a:

-Loss from standing over drawing-

d\p__12____13____14____15____16___

7___-209__-166__-114__-119__-110__

8___-189__-148__-145__-108__-102__

9___-141__-145__-103__-062__-055__

10__-156__-119__-075__-038__-029__

A___-----___-----___-----__-159__-146__

Perusal of the original table in BTD shows that it's more costly than its worth to stand with 2, 3, & 4 versus the dealer's Ace, but costs are not *too* detrimental in the presented cases. A quick calculation shows the mean (average) expected loss for standing on 12-16 v. 7-T to be -.119909090909.

continued...

Technique deemed unfruitful...But still value...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 29-Jan-2003 13:02:44 (#2874)

With a little help from Don Sleschinger, the technique of exploiting the "blind pitch" was unfortunately deemed unfruitful, subsequently I've deleted Part II which contained erroneous information. Part I was left posted because there is some very valuable information on the utmost importance of penetration (even minimal increases/decreases ie. 3%), so at least some good came of it.

ANS

*one note, the 19% figure given for player bust rate should be 16%.

No Sweat
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 29-Jan-2003 15:09:52 (#2875)

I understand what you are saying and often times I am left wondering about the actual numbers for a certain probability or a "theoretical" EV for one play or another. To go forward with no understanding of the variables makes you a gambler, which is a word that every AP cringes at, looks down upon, blah blah blah. I saw your post elseware and you are searching for truth. Are you satisified with the answer or not? I can't get reasonable answers to many of my questions from the math boys, probably because it is not something that they are interested in. I have sat down with a pad of graph paper and gone thru as many scenarios as I could possibly create with my actual playing results to determine my risk of ruin using different bet sizes, bonuses, techniques, to come up with my results to help me determine my safest most successful approach to making money. *I* have to be convinced, simply because it is my money (not really!) that I could be losing. If I am off by a few % and not making as much as I thought I should be, well, it was my mistake. If I have an edge of 14% and not 17%, RoR of 2% (not really!) instead of .5% I can live with that! grin

agreed, Rob *NM*
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 29-Jan-2003 17:02:15 (#2877)

Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#2869)

Theoretical vs Practical Math
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 29-Jan-2003 09:16:38 (#2870)

I did enjoy reading "How to see 'Blind Pitch'...EXPOSED" Using the finite math to the theoretical .00000000nth degree, you have created a work of art none the less. Math can be an art form and you have that talent. Why not just simply state that we can consider all unseen cards behind the cut card and say our pene is NOT 75% but more like 70 or 65%?? After 10,000,000 hands, the effect should be the same.

Fargo, North Dakota
Posted by Skug on 30-Jan-2003 18:24:19 (#2880)

Next week, I am heading to Fargo, North Dakota, where most bars offer blackjack. I expect to find dreamy penetration for various reasons, mostly because the gambling is charitable, i.e., no profiteer to protect the take, and because, until recently, the limit was $5 (now $25, which is fine for a budding red-chipper like myself). Has anyone played blackjack in the North Dakota bars? I'll be shocked if anyone answers yes, but if so, any intelligence?

Re: Fargo, North Dakota
Posted by The Mayor on 31-Jan-2003 09:50:28 (#2881)

My ex-wife was from Larimore -- 100 miles north-west of Fargo. I can't believe they have B.J. there. Please report back on the conditions when you play.

--Mayor

Re: Fargo, North Dakota
Posted by hammer on 31-Jan-2003 15:15:05 (#2890)

Go across the border close by to Winnipeg, Canada which has a few
casinos.No comps,not even free drinks,but you can
raise to your hearts desire,as they understand you can
lose too.

sloooooooooooowwwwwwwww posts
Posted by Learning to count on 31-Jan-2003 11:47:55 (#2882)

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...every one must be in vegas??????

Re: Slow posts
Posted by BradRod on 31-Jan-2003 12:54:10 (#2883)

Hey LTC.

I've been having a really good week, Been playing every day. Finally feel like I have it together. Dare I say I am playing in the "long run". UBZ11 really seems to be working for me. SO, this is just a howdy to let you know someone else is around.

Brad

Re: Slow posts
Posted by hinoon on 31-Jan-2003 13:25:21 (#2885)

I assumed that my slow-as-you-go progress in learning the fundamental +/- count wouldn't be of much interest to the group at large....so, for the most part, I just check the boards and do my best to learn. Though honestly, the more exciting-seeming posts discuss stuff that I really just don't understand.

All in good time.

For the record, I'm down to about 35 seconds on a hand-flipped deck, while on the phone in a busy office. Still have yet to try and apply the count while playing though. I'm practicing estimating the number of decks in the discard tray. all that basic stuff that the majority of heavy posters forget they even know.

later.

Re: Slow posts
Posted by Learning to count on 31-Jan-2003 13:59:59 (#2888)

As far as flipping goes that technique is time consuming and will wear on your joints. Besides you are trying to train the mind not the hands. I used to flip as well.

Try this out. Put the deck in one hand face up. then using your thumb push the cards one by one to the waiting hand. This shuffling a card from hand to hand is fast and you will be training your eyes and thought process enstead of your arms.

Next try and push two cards out then grabbing them with the recieving hand and plopping them down. This will train you to read two cards as one. You will see plus one, minus one, zero, or two nuetral cards which will register as nothing.

Next try three cards at a time. You will soon be able to see more.
After that you can start four cards...etc.

This will help you for scanning tables on the run. It will come to you one day as it did I. I looked and I saw the whole table and emediately saw the count. With this you can Wong. It will aslo help in not falling into the count every card as they come syndrome. Which can lead to whispering counts or moving the lips. If you train at multiple pulls you will be deadly.

As far as speed well I firmly believe a good counter should count down a single deck under 15 seconds. The only other thing that is as important is knowing BS better than you can count. Pull a couple cards with out looking at them and then say what they are when you get through the deck.

A lot of people like computer programs with counting features. This is good to. You can get very fast on a computer. Casino Verite is what I am currently using. I still feel a deck of Bee's is still the best way. Plus I believe if ya hold the deck long enough you can easily tell what a full deck looks like in the discard tray.

So drop the flip and embrace the push and become deadly.

Re: Slow posts
Posted by Learning to count on 31-Jan-2003 13:27:00 (#2886)

I love it when a practitioner becomes deadly at this art. Like the Mayor says "It feels good to take thier money" heheheheh. BR now stands for Bank Roll.>:)

Re: sloooooooooooowwwwwwwww posts
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 31-Jan-2003 13:13:20 (#2884)

I got back from Mecca Wednesday.

The Western was bright, clean, and shiney. They have brand new chips that are all the same thickness, and new felt on most of the tables. They still use El Cortez cards. Pen was deep, and several dealers could actually deal fast.

I walked up to the PC and asked, "Pardon me, do you know where there is a casino called the Western?"

ahhhhhhhhhhhh the western.
Posted by lEARNING TO COUNT on 31-Jan-2003 13:36:13 (#2887)

There is a young and cute oriental pit boss there. She always smiles when you raise your bets or play two hands. She never made any defensive moves. I think they knew the end was near. Where you there when the new owners moved in? I actually cashed out with two black chips that said western on em. Deep yes very deep. Single deck one and two dollar games too bad they didnt allow double after a split. I had some bodacious money on the table at those times. Mecca I like that name for LV. May you have the luck of a thousand camels holding faces and aces in thier hooves.

Re: sloooooooooooowwwwwwwww posts
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 31-Jan-2003 14:39:37 (#2889)

I'd post more often but you won't see it for about 12 hours! ;> Hey, will someone hold a vote to get me back off moderated status please and thank you?? I'll be a good boy, I promise.

Re: sloooooooooooowwwwwwwww posts
Posted by The Mayor on 31-Jan-2003 16:11:18 (#2892)

You got it.

Thanks! *NM*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 31-Jan-2003 16:14:58 (#2893)

Surprised
Posted by The Mayor on 31-Jan-2003 16:10:20 (#2891)

Was anyone else surprised by the previous poll showing the number of people that DON'T wong 6 deck shoes? To me that is the BEST game in town.

--Mayor

Re: Surprised
Posted by BradRod on 31-Jan-2003 18:16:49 (#2894)

I was unable to access the poll archive to view the results.

I used to have many 6D games available. N ow most have gone to 8D. The one remaining 6D game is my outstanding favorite. Wonging makes it work. Even with pretty decent to good penetration the 8D games seem very laborious to play. I have never played 1,2 or 4 deck but am looking forward to that opportunity in the coming months

Re: Surprised
Posted by Learning to count on 31-Jan-2003 20:33:04 (#2898)

Ah but how many really know how to wong. I mean how many know when to jump in or jump out. How many are truly table scannners. How many of them know when to run when the table gets angry for the old inny and outy routine. Wonging is the best. It is truly exciting when you hit that strike TC and greedily put out three bets of $25 and you and two others are the only ones at the table. The dealers busts and the count climbs higher. Or how about wonging into a hot table and winning and the ploppies leave because your winning and they think you have bad JOU JOU on them. ANd there you are heads up three decks out and you have a plus nine true under you belt. You play three hands of 75. BJ,twenty,BJ, the dealer gets 16 and flips a ten. you slide two hands of 25 and boom two snappers. All the way to the one deck shiny black cut card you win every hand. Cash in and walk over to the next table and never look back. Thats wonging. Whew! You literally float on air. My friend the grizzily said it clear "this is a lot of fun"...yeah. Your right Mayor it is the best game in town.

Re: Surprised
Posted by Big Cowboy on 04-Feb-2003 11:17:26 (#2951)

Mr. Mayor,
when you play six decks, do you always wong it? In other words, does a casino ever bar you when playing six decks for card counting reasons? Just curious.

Re: Surprised
Posted by The Mayor on 04-Feb-2003 11:20:30 (#2953)

I have only been barred from two places for 6 deck games. Those places are the Chumash and the Flamingo. The Chumash is its own story. At the Flamingo I was agressively Wonging.

I don't always Wong 6 deckers, that is just my most common way of playing. I also like a little single deck, and occasionally I will sit through a negative shoe if the game at the table is a good one.

Journal units
Posted by BradRod on 31-Jan-2003 19:44:02 (#2896)

When entering wins and loses in a journal should this be done in units of bet or dollar amounts ?

I seem to remember reading that units was the prefered way but, if so then how do you deal with changing units. i.e. you sometimes bet $5, $10, $15, $25, and even canadian dollars.

On a spreadsheet would you have separate columns for units and separate column for cumulative dollar totals ?

Thanks,

BraRod

Personal decision
Posted by The Mayor on 31-Jan-2003 19:47:02 (#2897)

All my amounts in my journal are in terms of $$$. Units is artificial, a way of not telling the rest of the world what is really going on ... if I wong, my unit is $25, if I play all, my unit is $10 mostly, but sometimes $5 (if I can spread 30-1 without wonging). Max bet is the more appropriate measure. E.g., my max bet is $150.

--Mayor

Why Not Track Both?
Posted by SammyBoy on 01-Feb-2003 17:18:03 (#2905)

The more information the better.

Re: Why Not Track Both?
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 01-Feb-2003 19:46:39 (#2909)

In time you will be so far ahead of the game you may not want to track anything. It's great to see your moves in a journal, but it can also be a pain to keep track of. I have so many books and reports hanging around now. I need a bigger office!

..................................................
Posted by BradRod on 01-Feb-2003 11:08:08 (#2901)

Saddened by the loss of Space Shuttle Columbia and her crew

Yes
Posted by The Mayor on 01-Feb-2003 11:23:42 (#2902)

My heartfelt sympathy with the families and friends of the crew. It is a very sad day, once again, in America and the world.

God Bless them and thier families. *NM*
Posted by Learning to count on 01-Feb-2003 12:17:38 (#2903)

Amen *NM*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 01-Feb-2003 19:43:37 (#2908)

muslims celebrate over diaster
Posted by hammer on 01-Feb-2003 20:16:20 (#2910)

Iraqis Call Shuttle Disaster God's Vengeance
Sat Feb 1, 3:23 PM ET Add Top Stories - Reuters to My Yahoo!

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Immediate popular reaction in Baghdad on Saturday to the loss of the U.S. space shuttle Columbia and its seven-member crew -- including the first Israeli in space -- was that it was God's retribution.

We are happy that it broke up," government employee Abdul Jabbar al-Quraishi said.

"God wants to show that his might is greater than the Americans. They have encroached on our country. God is avenging us," he said.

Iraqis are braced for a possible U.S.-led war to rid their country of any chemical, biological or nuclear weapons it may possess. Iraq denies it has such weapons.

Car mechanic Mohammed Jaber al-Tamini noted Israeli air force Colonel Ilan Ramon was among the dead when the shuttle broke up over the southwestern United States 16 minutes before its scheduled landing.

The 48-year-old Israeli astronaut was a fighter pilot in the Israeli air force. He was the youngest pilot in a team that bombed Iraq's nuclear reactor in 1981. Israel said the reactor was intended to develop nuclear weapons.

"Israel launched an aggression on us when it raided our nuclear reactor without any reason, now time has come and God has retaliated to their aggression," Tamini said.

Re: muslims celebrate over diaster
Posted by Learning to count on 01-Feb-2003 20:24:07 (#2911)

Nah not muslims but a## hole Iraquis. They will see what Gods wrath will really be like when the thousand points of light light up Bahgdad.

Re: muslims celebrate over diaster
Posted by The Mayor on 02-Feb-2003 13:11:37 (#2920)

They are celebrating because the state ordered them to, and if they didn't, they would be murdered by Saddam.

I don't take the view that people are crazy in mass.

--Mayor

Re: muslims celebrate over diaster
Posted by Learning to count on 02-Feb-2003 16:41:02 (#2921)

I agree Eliot but I have personally experienced mass hatred of us Americans in Europe, Africa, and Latin American. I have also been practically been celebrated as a hero for being an American in theses places. By far I am careful when I travel now. Even in England I experienced anti american feelings by a group of english in an elevator going down to the tube platform. I think the most accepting peoples I have met were Australians and Itallions. Right now I would stay out any predominantly Muslim country. AND I MEAN THAT BECAUSE OF THE PREDOMINANTLY ANTI-AMERICAN FEELINGS THERE NOT BECAUSE THEY ARE MUSLIMS! Well when the sh*t hits the fan we can always go to Vegas for vacation.

Re: Iraq
Posted by hammer on 02-Feb-2003 18:38:35 (#2922)

The country is 97% muslim. The religion preaches hatred. The people
are not crazy, but by no means as a whole pure and joyful either.

Re: Iraq
Posted by The Mayor on 02-Feb-2003 19:03:35 (#2923)

>The country is 97% muslim. The religion preaches hatred.

This is false, Islam is a very peaceful religion. Just as there are right-wing gun toting fundamentalist Christians, there are also right-wing gun toting fundamentalist Islamics. They are a very small minority, and do not represent the religion any more than the KKK represents the Methodists.

--Mayor

peaceful really?you better read their book
Posted by hammer on 03-Feb-2003 00:00:06 (#2924)

Islamic Terror: The Revised Koran

Posted October 29, 2001

By Debra Emmes

How would an Arab or Muslim feel if the Koran was revised and had the words Jews and Christians removed and in their place the words Arabs and Muslims inserted? Allow me to quote from the Revised Edition of the Koran, which in part would read thusly:

"O believers, make war on the Arabs and Muslims who dwell around you. Let them find firmness in you." (Surah 9, Section 123)

"Fight those Arabs and Muslims who believe not in the God of Jacob even if they be People of the Book until they agree to pay the tribute in recognition of their submissive state." (Surah 9, Section 29)

"You will be called to fight a mighty nation of Arabs and Muslims; fight them until they embrace the God of Jacob." (Surah 48, Section 16)

"Then fight and slay the Arabs and Muslims wherever you find them. And seize them, beleaguer them and lie in wait for them, in every stratagem (of war)." (Surah 9, Section 5)

"Those who believe fight in the cause of the God of Jacob; And those who reject the true faith of the God of Jacob fight in the cause of Evil; So fight ye against the Arabs and Muslims, those Friends of Satan ...." (Surah 4, Section 10, Chapter 76)

"Take not the Arabs and Muslims as friends or protectors." (Surah 5, Section 8, Chapter 51)

"The Arabs and Muslims perverted the things they learned in the Covenant of the God of Jacob." (Surah 3, Section 19, Chapter 187)

"The God of Jacob has turned his face from Arabs and Muslims, and Jews, Christians, Hindus, Buddhists and Atheists should do the same." (Surah 4, Section 7, Chapter 47)

For the last several weeks I have heard all the Arab and Muslim advocacy groups claim how their constituents are among the best Americans. If that is the case, why then do they say nothing about the Koran's advocacy of violence against Jews and Christians? The fact is some Arab Muslims are "true believers" of Islam, and are following the dictates of their religion. Perhaps now is the time for Islamic clerics in America to stop spreading hatred and calls for war against Jews and Christians. Edit the Koran and make amends with the Jews and Christians.

Maybe
Posted by The Mayor on 03-Feb-2003 09:55:51 (#2931)

Maybe a Biblical scholoar (Rob?) could quote the relevant portions of the Bible that are equally as unyielding.

I heard a local Islamic cleric read some of those portions and explain the meaning in practical terms -- interpretation in modern times is the key.

Thanks for sharing your insights!

--Mayor

Re: Maybe
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 03-Feb-2003 12:16:09 (#2935)

Yes, I was writing a response to this earlier and trashed it because I don't want people to think that I am interested in a religious fight of any sort. What I was going to say was that by using text excerpts people will often make God look blood thirsty. He will give you options, and tells you what the consequences are before you decide. We only have one option left to cash in. Don't wait too long. ;>

Point being their are extreme translations which I feel are not guided by the "Good Spirit" of God if you will. They are lies meant to get us fighting.

Re: Maybe
Posted by SammyBoy on 03-Feb-2003 17:44:21 (#2940)

Mayor,

I think what you're trying to say is that we should not judge people by their religion, and I agree. There are good, kind and decent people of all religions just as there are evil people in all religions. Just my 2 cents.

Re: muslims celebrate over diaster
Posted by BradRod on 01-Feb-2003 20:32:58 (#2912)

I knew it would just be a matter of a small time before we heard such stories. Americans never cher at the disaster of others no matter what the relationship. Next I'm sure we will hear about Palestineans in Gaza dancing on their rooftops and handing candy out to their kids in celebration of our tragedy.

I think we will still show our benevolence to common Iraqis in the course of the war despite that story. The effect it will have on Iraqi higher ups and those in power during their war crime prosecutions will be another matter.

Hatred
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 01-Feb-2003 21:43:01 (#2915)

can get a hold on any of us if we let it. The human animal is capable of the most atrocious feelings and actions due to our ability to think beyond what we will need to eat for diner. Most animals only kill to defend themselves or to have something to eat. We can make up our minds not to let hatred form within ourselves. Many people are programed to react the way they do by media, peer pressure, their religion, or political idealisms. We can rise above all of that and get in touch with something beyond all of this. My daughter keeps laughing at her little brother every time he hurts himself. It will take some meaningful chats and a bit of growing up to get her to see why this is not good for her, or anyone else.

WE NEED IRAQ...Top 10 Reasons.
Posted by phantom007 on 04-Feb-2003 05:35:53 (#2945)

#10...Military employment security.

#9....Cab drivers.

#8....Motel operators.

#7....Convenience store owners.

#6....Doctors (who cannot speak English).

#5....McDonnel-Douglas employment security.

#4....To keep Gas less than $2.00 a gallon.

#3....Weapons Testing.

#2....Grad Students (so college professors have jobs).

and the #1 Reason:

#1....So that Ugly American Girls can get laid, since Iraqi Grad. Students

marry them, at least long enough to get a Green Card.

phantom007

Re: WE NEED PROOF
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 04-Feb-2003 09:24:54 (#2948)

Looks like they have you surrounded bub! grin I hope that Powell can convince everyone that they do have WOMD. Right now it looks like GBush is an LAPD officer on a Rodney King hunt. What do you think of Nelly Mandelly's take on this sit? On the weekend every US channel beemed across the border had a war movie on druming up the troops and families. I read about the new weapons that will be used which are said to be 10 times more powerful and accurate than D Storm. Wonder if he will set the oil fields on fire again? Or actually get to use his WOMD.

One thing from a military stand point, you have to start taking the enemy right out, not just doing a fantastic landscaping job. Sadam should have been taken out last time. Take the weed out by the roots. Patton, MacArthur, etc, etc....

And we have to find something other than fossil fuels to drive to that local variety store to try and speak with the guy you think is Iraqi, but really is a very docile man from India.

We need to get this over with *NM*
Posted by BradRod on 04-Feb-2003 13:25:00 (#2957)

Re: WE NEED PROOF
Posted by phantom007 on 04-Feb-2003 14:35:19 (#2961)

I actually agree with you on most every point, except the "docile India" stuff. I was trying to be entertaining, at least to myself. Who is "Nelly Mandelly"?

My gripe/prejudice against foreigners, and ESPECIALLY those from India, is that, in my own GREED for power, prestige, and wealth, I borrowed close to 7 figures, in order to expand my medical practice, in order for 6 "Towel-heads" to be able to stay in the USA, and with the PROMISE that they would stay with me for the Long Term.

When they got their Green Cards, they left my Rural area for the High-Paying jobs. And Left me with the DEBT!

Therefore, now:

-I have no medical practice.

-I work for a hospital, clocking in and out in Blue Collar style.

-I pay $198. per year for having the privilege of having a Master-

Card with a $350. limit (poor EV IMHO).

-I am in good company...Donald Trump, Wayne Newton, and Texaco, all

seem to be doing well, after their Bankruptcy. Maybe I will too!

Yes, I am prejudiced!

I know I should not be, but I am!

And in studying for my upcoming LV trip, I am confused. BS tells us that 16 always Hits vs. Dealer 10......in reviewing my Indicies Chart, it says "0"...do I take this to mean that at +1, you stand against Dealer 10?

Thanks. I feel much better now. And I got the subject BACK to BJ!

phantom007

Re: WE NEED PROOF
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 04-Feb-2003 15:04:32 (#2965)

Any running count of +1 makes 16 a stander re 10 up. I've had similar problems with women in my past. Lost a house, wife, 4 cars, my dog, a whack of cash to a hot chick, etc. They have what they got, but I still have what they don't, and will never have....grin And I am not against women. It was a learning experience. Sorry that what happened to you has changed you so much. You are the victor my man, not the victim. Rise above and conquer all! Don't let that hate drag you down.

Thank You R. McG!
Posted by phantom007 on 04-Feb-2003 17:19:50 (#2970)

But SORRY that you have had to experience loss! It is not FUN!

Good Cards/Coins to you!

phantom007.

Re: WE NEED PROOF
Posted by phantom007 on 04-Feb-2003 14:38:42 (#2962)

I actually agree with you on most every point, except the "docile India" stuff. I was trying to be entertaining, at least to myself. Who is "Nelly Mandelly"?

When they got their Green Cards, they left my Rural area for the High-Paying jobs. And Left me with the DEBT!

Therefore, now:

-I have no medical practice.

-I work for a hospital, clocking in and out in Blue Collar style.

-I pay $198. per year for having the privilege of having a Master-

Card with a $350. limit (poor EV IMHO).

-I am in good company...Donald Trump, Wayne Newton, and Texaco, all

seem to be doing well, after their Bankruptcy. Maybe I will too!

Yes, I am prejudiced! Hate to be, but I am!

I know I should not be, but I am!

Thanks. I feel much better now. And I got the subject BACK to BJ!

phantom007

Thinking About Moving On to Halves?
Posted by SammyBoy on 01-Feb-2003 17:15:31 (#2904)

I feel like I have mastered the Hi/Lo count. I've been using it for almost a year successfully, but it took about a year of practicing before I became good enough to use it successfully in the casino. The sims I've run show that I can gain about another .3% (maybe more with indices) using halves over Hi/Lo. I'm wondering how long it will take for me to become as comfortable with halves as I am with Hi/Lo? Is it worth it? I believe it is, but I believe I would have to stop playing until I've practiced enough and know it well enough to take on the casino. I can see myself getting confused and really screwing up the count.

I also like to play third base (pitch games). The biggest problem with this is it is often hard to see the cards as the dealer turns them over. Some dealers use a technique where they can shield you from the cards (have you seen this?). Many times I feel like a damn giraffe with my head stretched out looking at the first basemans cards.

I guess what I'm really asking for is advice from players that have switched from a basic count to a more sophisticated one. Thanks.

Re: ........ Moving On........
Posted by BradRod on 01-Feb-2003 18:07:31 (#2906)

I have changed count systems 3 times. Currently using UBZ11. And that is a change that I have just gone through in the last few weeks.

I noticed errors that I was making in implementing the new count. In spite of these errors my approach and advice to you would be get into battle with the new system as soon as you are able to count a deck down in under 30 seconds. You probably will make mistakes too at first but, I think it is the best way to learn and get comfortable with the system under playing conditions.

It would be prudent at first to select the most favorable games available to you . Lower stakes are always better to learn and it would be most helpful if you can find a dealer with a slow hand.

I had been very focused on finding cards to neutralize to make the counting easier. In Hi-Lo terms say T's and 6's net out to zero so no need to count either card. In multi tiered systems as I imagine 1/2's are (UBZ11 is a 2 level system)this is a bit harder because you have to find like level cards to neutralize each other.

The intense focus i needed to apply, I thought, would be offset by my ingrained familiarity with basic strategy so I can focus concentration on the count and implementing the new system.

Then 2 things happened that shook my complaceny

1. In play - the dealer makes his hand. I take another look at mine to see if i was getting paid or not. NOT. my hand was 15. I took a

BlackjackInfo.com

The World's Most Popular Blackjack Website

Home

Basic Strategy Engine

Rules of Blackjack

Strategy Trainer /
Free Blackjack Game

Card Counting

Interviews

Blackjack Blog

Message Boards

Blackjack Tournaments

Gambling Online

Newsletter Archive

Books & Software

Threads 361 to 390

BlackjackInfo.com

The World's Most Popular Blackjack Website

Strategy Trainer / Free Blackjack Game

Threads 361 to 390

Strategy Trainer /
Free Blackjack Game