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Threads 481 to 510

Thanks for deleting the troll Mayor. LTC *NM*
Posted by Learning to count on 26-Mar-2003 11:18:01 (#3590)

Re: Thanks for deleting the troll Mayor. LTC
Posted by The Mayor on 26-Mar-2003 12:26:49 (#3591)

Thanks for noticing!

One of the benefits (?) of having read and posted about blackjack on various sites since 1995 is that I am very familiar with the personalities and posting attributes of the most well known spammers. They are easy to pick out, and although they appear to have something to say, believe me, they don't.

--Mayor

The Approach
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 27-Mar-2003 08:52:15 (#3606)

will often show you what they are leading up to. I get a lot of emails that end up in the same formats. And usually they surface all at the same time on these diff boards with diff names.

Into the fold...First Questions
Posted by Casual Counter on 26-Mar-2003 15:41:02 (#3594)

Hi all,

I've been lurking for a few months and thought it was finally time to reveal myself and ask my first questions. I've been enjoying the discussions.

I'm a counting newb, using KO Preferred. I've had two trips (Vegas) since I began, one +32 units and one -52. I am a casual player, with no ambition to be a pro. I've been playing BS for years and finally decided to take it to the next level. I'm doing it because it's stimulating and since I love to play, I may as well reverse or at least eliminate the house edge. The Wife and I trek to Vegas between 3 and 6 times a year.

I'm heading to Vegas again in the near future. I'm a little worried about spreading. When I was a straight BS player, I flat bet. The past two trips I spread 1-3 green at 2-decker pitch games (at Mindplay tables, no less) I know there is little or no EV with that spread, but I was unwilling to be more aggressive yet. Now that I'm spreading, my bankroll no longer supports Green play. So I'm going to move back to Red and I'm planning to spread 1-10 on 6-deckers. Herein...the questions:

I notice in practicing w/ 6 decks that the count rarely gets high enough to raise your bet (I'm using the KO version of 1-10 Kelley for 6 decks) in the first half of the shoe. How can I possibly cover this style of betting from the pit? I bet flat minimum for 1/2 the shoe then suddenly leap up to 4, 6, or 8 chips. I know that I could wong in, but I will be playing some longer sessions with my Wife (built-in cover?) where that won't be an option. I'm better at wonging out than in, anyway. I'm also not convinced that Wonging in isn't equally as obvious as suddenly jumping your bet. I'll probably be playing $10 tables, so effectively spreading 2-10, with 2 off top.

I would appreciate any advice on how to make my ramping less obvious. I have some ideas, but am curious to hear how you experienced guys handle it.

I also have a whole clumping can of worms I want to open up with you guys, but I'll hold that off for a shorter, future post. Thanks for your thoughts. I really enjoy reading this board.

Re: Into the fold...First Questions ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 27-Mar-2003 07:01:45 (#3603)

Lurking does not cut it here. We want you to be part of the team. Join CC.COM and help us grow. Its free and the benifits are awesome!

Re: Into the fold...First Questions
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Mar-2003 11:06:33 (#3607)

Welcome! I will do what I can to answer your questions.

>I'm a counting newb, using KO Preferred. I've had two trips (Vegas) since I began, one +32 units and one -52. I am a casual player, with no ambition to be a pro. I've been playing BS for years and finally decided to take it to the next level. I'm doing it because it's stimulating and since I love to play, I may as well reverse or at least eliminate the house edge. The Wife and I trek to Vegas between 3 and 6 times a year.

With this type of play, you should not "feel" the effects of the edge you have for several years. Think "500 hours" of play before you really notice -- without a doubt, that you have an edge. If you are getting 25 hours in per trip, and 2 trips per year, well, that's 10 years. This is the nature of the "long run." On the other hand, it is much nicer to be playing with an edge!

>I'm heading to Vegas again in the near future. I'm a little worried about spreading. When I was a straight BS player, I flat bet. The past two trips I spread 1-3 green at 2-decker pitch games (at Mindplay tables, no less) I know there is little or no EV with that spread, but I was unwilling to be more aggressive yet. Now that I'm spreading, my bankroll no longer supports Green play. So I'm going to move back to Red and I'm planning to spread 1-10 on 6-deckers. Herein...the questions:

Wow. This paragraphs says a lot! Without a spread, you are not playing a winning game. You have to be willing to put the money out when the count says to, and those are the times you are patiently waiting for, but also the times that you win or lose bundles. This is the reason for the game's high variance.

>I notice in practicing w/ 6 decks that the count rarely gets high enough to raise your bet (I'm using the KO version of 1-10 Kelley for 6 decks) in the first half of the shoe.

KO will not yield many early bets. KO tends to underestimate the count early and over estimate it late. That is the defect of the system. That said, it is still very good.

>How can I possibly cover this style of betting from the pit?

You can't. But if you are spreading 1-10 red, the pit won't care much any way. I routinely spread 30-1 at shoe games. You just have to limit your playing time in each casino. Get your game hat on, spread and play like you have to, and get ready for the other fun parts of advantage play: the cat and mouse game that haves you leaving when you get the first sniff of smoke.

>I bet flat minimum for 1/2 the shoe then suddenly leap up to 4, 6, or 8 chips. I know that I could wong in, but I will be playing some longer sessions with my Wife (built-in cover?) where that won't be an option.

If you are playing with your wife, don't worry about advantage play. You are there just to enjoy her company, unless you get her interested in beating the game as well, in which case you have the makings of a powerful team.

>I'm better at wonging out than in, anyway. I'm also not convinced that Wonging in isn't equally as obvious as suddenly jumping your bet.

No, wonging is virtually invisible to the pit and is very powerful.

>I'll probably be playing $10 tables, so effectively spreading 2-10, with 2 off top.

Then you are spreading 1-5, which is not enough to beat a dd game, let alone a shoe.

>I would appreciate any advice on how to make my ramping less obvious. I have some ideas, but am curious to hear how you experienced guys handle it.

I am not going to give you that advice. Just ramp like crazy and get some heat. Do it on purpose at a lesser known casino, just so you can see what it is like to get heat -- for example go to the Barbary Coast or the El Cortez and get yourself tossed. Do it, man! You just don't know until you've been there.

The idea is not to preplan cover, but to gain experience. As you gain experience you will know what to do.

But, finally, remember the most important rule: "Don't overbet your bankroll" -- and if you are someone who is not playing with an advantage, then the maximum bet is $0.

Get the experience of going for it and let us know how you do!

>I also have a whole clumping can of worms I want to open up with you guys, but I'll hold that off for a shorter, future post.

Please don't! There are enough really good ways of beating the game that really work, if you are interested in more advanced methods they are plentiful and powerful and tested -- clumping is none of these.

Good cards to you,

--Mayor

Back from Vegas
Posted by Casual Counter on 03-Apr-2003 23:54:24 (#3646)

Mayor,

Thanks for your response. I appreciate your encouragement.

The near future referred to in my previous post is now the recent past, to the tune of an 87 unit loss! Ouch. I have felt the bitch slap of variance.

The good news. I did successfully spread 1-10 the whole trip and drew no heat. The bad news: It seemed like any time I had my bet over 5 units I would get wildly smacked down.

Importantly, my faith is not shaken. I�m very confident in my mechanics and confident that variance was my downfall, not errors. I had not truly considered how bad the variance could be when you are losing 8 and 10 unit bets left and right. Also, the conditions were not great. Bad pen and always-full tables. I wonged out fairly aggressively.

I did not get any more aggressive than that, as you encouraged, but I had many good reasons not to on this trip. We�ll see what future opportunities bring. But I remain a casual player, simply hoping to improve my edge during each short visit. It also makes the game a lot more fun.

Conditions: I played in the neo-standard strip game. 6D, DOA, DAS, H17, LSR. Cut off was almost always 2 decks. I found one dealer cutting off 1 �, which, sadly enough, was exciting. I did play at one Mindplay table, just to see what would happen. But I received no heat at this or any other table.

Question: Mayor, you stated that, ��you are spreading 1-5, which is not enough to beat a dd game, let alone a shoe.� The KO book has an EV table on page 90 that states that you can get a small edge on a DD game spreading 1-2 and a good edge spread 1-5 or higher. Can I ask why you disagree? While I understand most of the math involved with counting and EV I don�t have nearly the skills some of you guys around here do, nor do I have any of the Sim s/w to sample these issues.

At our request, I will keep my clumping can of worms closed for now. Don�t worry; it�s not really that kind of clumping as faux-advantage play issue that I�m talking about, though. It was more of a cover play issue, but I found it so far, to be unnecessary. I am taking my time and gaining that experience that you mentioned.

Thanks again,
-CC

Re - How Many at Table to Play
Posted by CanKen on 26-Mar-2003 18:07:06 (#3595)

There were some posts here about a week ago under this heading. I came across an interesting article on this topic recently. Anyone interested might want to check it out on the DeepNet Technologies site.
Go to "www.handheldblackjack.com/article6.html".

Re: Re - How Many at Table to Play
Posted by Rutager on 26-Mar-2003 23:28:21 (#3601)

Interesting.... I would have thought that for single and double deck, 4 players would hurt your expectation, not help it. Mayor?

I wish these simulations used larger spreads than 1-3 on single and 1-4 on double deck. Maybe this has something to do with it.

Rutager

A Vegas Virgin's Long and Rambling Trip Report (Part I)
Posted by Running Count on 26-Mar-2003 18:14:11 (#3596)

I spend most of the 9 hour car ride back to the Bay Area in the back seat trying to catch up on lost sleep, but whenever I closed my eyes, I saw bad cards and stained felt. I'm getting too old (at 25) for cramped backseats on long road trips. So instead I tried to mentally reconstruct my trip my first to Vegas. Much will be forever lost to the vagaries of intoxication and fatigue, but this is what I could remember:

Sun. 5:35 am
Blood alcohol content: 0.00
Bankroll: even

Blinked stupidly in the mirror and quizzed myself on some index numbers for Hi-Lo 6D in my head while I shaved. Bags packed. Ponce, KG, and Baumer arriving any minute to start the drive. I hadn�t slept more than 2 hours, max. I was up most of the night practicing the shoe game on a simulator program � too excited to sleep.

Sun 12:30 pm
BAC: 0.00
Bankroll: even

Our excitement level was growing minute by minute: at least mine and Ponce�s. Baumer and KG snore in the back. I was driving now: pushing Santiago to 90+ in my impatience. Santiago is Ponce�s Subaru. Ponce is called Ponce because of some long-forgotten link to Ponce de Leon, the explorer. At some point, Baumer learned that the real de Leon�s ship was called the Santiago, and thus there we were, a stalwart band of sea-swarthies, pushing Santiago at full sail for the neon harbor ahead. I-15 was a straight shot through the valleys, twisting ever slightly to the North at each range. We pass Primm. 30 miles to go.

Sun 2:30 pm
BAC: 0.03
Bankroll: -2 units

I prop my feet up on the table in the Casino bar. My first 2 units wagered on college bball. The ice in my g&t tinkles in the glass. Ponce and Baumer bet on the favorite to beat the spread. I bet for the underdog. We realize soon after that we could have bet each other and cut the casino�s vig out completely, but oh well. This casino, one of the newest, is my first impression of Vegas. It shines in cream and gold from the outside, and is filled with soaring ceilings and a tropical theme. I get up at halftime to walk around and eat my $5 burger. I spot KG at a nearby sucker machine. He is already at plus $75 (the bastard) after hitting something good on a nickel machine. In the car, I tried to explain to him about full-pay VP, but he likes the true slots. I�m sure he�ll lose it back and much more in time. I check out the legendary pool this place has. They won�t let me go look (for the first of many times, I hear the words: �Hotel guests only�) but I scam my way in after talking-up a couple nice spring-breakers from Ohio. The scene is marvelous. The wave pool is extraordinary, the women more so.

Back inside, I look over the blackjack tables. This place is bigger by several times than any place I�ve seen in Northern NV. All shoe games, H17. Many tables are CSM. In the high-roller pit, a man bets several yellow chips. I wonder aloud how much yellow is worth, and the roller turns around (Yikes! Good hearing) and says, �a thousand per.� I�m duly impressed. In the commoner pits, lots of crowds to blend in with (I look like a college student), so I watch the new shuffles for a good count. Nothing gets higher than +1 TC in 20 minutes, so back to basketball. The favorite beats the spread by 3.

Sun 4:30 pm
BAC: 0.01
Bankroll: -2 units

We�ve picked up Special K from the airport (he was too good for Santiago) and are heading up to our hotel on the North Strip. We pass the sleek Luxor, the breathtakingly tacky NYNY, the unapologetically ugly MGM, the glimmering fountains of the Bellagio and Venetian. After several acres of construction we pass the Reno-esque North strip places, and cruise into the desert-themed oasis that is to be our home for a couple nights.

Even this far from the wealth of the lower Strip, I notice one happy difference between Northern NV and Vegas: the place is crawling with attractive women. This was a theme that developed as the night went on. In general, our hotel crowd was young and low-rolling with a Midwestern flavor. We checked into our room, frowned at the small beds we would be sharing in our cheapness, and changed into our Vegas duds. Baumer wanted the full gangster suit style, but we convinced him to go with the shiny shirt and black pants only. Special K, Ponce and I went for the upscale dot-com look, and KG wore the ugliest and brightest Hawaiian shirt I�ve ever seen.

Sun 9:30 pm
BAC: 0.10
Bankroll: +4 units

Stomach full of awful buffet dinner at our hotel, wallet slightly lighter from playing their cheap shoe game (6D, H17, cut card at 1.5-2.5 decks), and my liver working hard on several bottles of Bud, we made our way into the Vegas night. The Northern-most casino has the best game early on (6D, H17, LSR, cut card at 1-1.5) and I repaired the losses suffered earlier. Tried to scam our way up to the observation tower, but several clever gambits all failed. The four of us (KG was asleep in the room with a raging headache) made our way South. Picked up the best funbook on the Strip (arguably) at the first casino (big-top theme, 6D, H17, cut card at 2) and turned the coupons into a +4 unit gain. Began to see the awful 6-5 SD game everywhere and wanted to tell the ploppies they were being scammed, but refrained. We were to have the last laugh on the 6-5 game later, though.

At this point, I should point out that only Special K and I were counting. Of the others, KG was a notoriously awful gambler, Ponce was a solid BJ basic strategy player and Baumer was only along for free drinks (playing a hand at the min when cocktail waitress came by). Ponce and KG provided great cover for the whole trip, bless their hearts.

Mon 4 am
BAC: 0.3 at least
Bankroll: +10 units

Special K and I collapse in the back of the cab in front of the fake Eiffel Tower and tell the driver our hotel. After convincing him to take the Strip instead of the freeway (we may be dunk, but not stupid; at 4 am the Strip would be substantially faster) we dissolved in laughter at our last six hours. After ditching the Slots-a-Fun and the �Ho, we had played for a couple hours at the somewhat nicer places just South. I had printed out over a dozen copies of the $5 match play Internet coupon for the western-themed joint, and between Ponce, me, and Special K, we distributed them around the large pit unnoticed. Nice profit there, but the only dealer who gave good pen on their shoe game (H17, LSR) was the world�s slowest human being. Onto the next generic place, where I gave back all that I won and more on a similar shoe game.

We crossed Sands Ave. and began to explore the majesty of the mega resorts. The pirate-themed resort reminded me of Disneyland, and the ubiquitous CSM machines kept us from playing any BJ. What we did notice was that that perhaps half of the entire population of the casino at 1 am was hot women. Special K first proposes The Theorem: As refined, the Theorem proposes that

X = M-squared

Where X equals hot women and M equals the amount of the average table bet. Or, as Special K said it, �God damn. Hot women stick to big money like dog shit to my shoe.�

Then came our shining moment. The hole-in-the-wall casino next the $1.7 billion disaster with the canals offered a stellar funbook to new signups, which included a 2 for 1 BJ payout coupon and some match-plays. Their games at first looked awful: a couple shoes with bad pen and worse rules, and some of those ever-present 6-5 SD games. Then the epiphany: we could play the SD game until we got one blackjack paid at 2 to 1 (or suited BJ at 3-1) and then leave. It would be the best odds we would play in Vegas. We settled in, and at first our gambit looked awful: SK and I were down combined $350 dollars in a half-hour. But we were determined, and drunk. We spread from 10-25 ($25 was the most the BJ coupon paid off) and made no attempt to hide it. The pit boss became our buddy, and if he knew our ploy, he didn�t care. An hour passed, and 7 BJs for the dealer and none for us. Another hour passes, and though I cut my losses, we are still down. And still no BJ. Baumer and Ponce are tired and go home. SK and I push on, and finally our losses are gone. Other than the 6-5 payout for the (nonexistent) BJ, this game has great rules (DA2, DAS, dealt to near bottom). SK and I spread identically at the same table, and even cajole the dealer into shuffling up after the Aces come out early (our very own pref. shuffle). Once on a high count, max bets out, I get twenty and Special K gets two aces. Still no BJ. Then, after 2.5 hours and both of us having climbed back up to a profit, there it is. The most beautiful ace-king I�ve ever seen, even if it was only on a $10 bet. SK and I cash in our winnings, smile at the critter, and leave laughing.

In the middle of the night, too jazzed to sleep, we explore the heart-stoppingly gorgeous Bellagio and the still-impressive Caesar�s. The Theorem proved time and time again. My legs are beginning to lose function, and dawn is beginning to show at the horizon, so we decided to turn in. We stumble into our hotel room, and I stare at the glittering Strip in the pre-dawn hour laid out in front of our hotel window, trying to sober up and wipe the smile off my face. Vegas, baby.

(Episode 2, downtown and the lower strip, coming soon)

Running Count

Re: A Vegas Virgin's Long and Rambling Trip Report (Part I)
Posted by Learning to count on 26-Mar-2003 21:14:24 (#3599)

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I wanna party with you mugs!!! You guys need to hook up with me and my horde and help wack a few chip trays. RC you and your crew are what this thing is all about team work. Keep on counting. Cant wait for part two. I vote that we consider this for the CC.COM archives. I miss Vegas Bad :( !!!!!

Re: A Vegas Virgin's Long and Rambling Trip Report (Part I)
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 27-Mar-2003 08:36:37 (#3604)

I have also found that I make more when I take more. I am a wicked counter but often lack the freakin guts to back myself with my own money, until I have a few Irish pops, then things get ugly in a good way.

Trolls!!!! ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 26-Mar-2003 21:38:49 (#3600)

Recently we have recieved three unmoderated posts by a poster named steve and a poster named pariah. We believe both are the same. The posts were designed to cause dissention and arguement here at CC.COM. This poster is someone we believe was also kicked out of other subscription sites. This person is well known by our security team and will be deleted and barred from posting. He has violated several rules of the site. We urge this poster to stop his mischief. If he wishes to discuss the science of card counting he will be allowed to post. Sorry about our strict rules. We reserve the right to protect the integrity of the site and its mission. Management.

Troll Killer
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 27-Mar-2003 08:48:27 (#3605)

Having seen many a snow storm I would find it rather easy hunting trolls in the middle of a sand storm. Sand doesn't blind you as much as snow does, and we usuually do it bare chested up here, so doing it with a kevlar vest, top hat and tails would be a cake walk. Sorry my country won't join in the fray. You have to do what you are told, right or wrong. See my post in non bj. If you are ordered to war, you are not breaking one of the big 10.

"You will be a minister of death praying for war....."

Line'em up

MIssing in action
Posted by Leaning to count on 27-Mar-2003 11:11:17 (#3608)

Has anyone seen heard or read anything from ZENGRIFTER? ROB you and he were BUDS whats up? LTC

Re: MIssing in action
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Mar-2003 11:14:22 (#3609)

Since you asked (more details will appear shortly in an article on another site by LVPro).

http://www.njusao.org/files/da1127_r.htm

--Mayor

Re: MIssing in action
Posted by Learning to count on 27-Mar-2003 11:19:28 (#3610)

WOWOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A real criminal master mind!!!!!!!!!!! WOW.......I hope he writes a book on his adventures. I want a signed copy!!!!!! Hey ROB did you know about this?????? Does any one else know anything else!!!!

Yes
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 27-Mar-2003 12:17:02 (#3612)

I can't say much more about this topic here and end up getting my posts censored again. I hope the prison does not allow him an internet connection. ;>

Rob

Re: MIssing in action
Posted by SammyBoy on 27-Mar-2003 11:24:20 (#3611)

Wow! That's much worse than busting your bankroll.

Gov't Version
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 27-Mar-2003 12:39:44 (#3614)

I prefer the gov't version thank-you-very-much! ;> I think people will now understand his constant interest in conspiracy theories.

Funny
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 27-Mar-2003 12:20:05 (#3613)

The news just surfaced this AM and I am wondering if it is just a co-incidence that you are asking about him or if you knew the cat was out of the bag? ;>

Bag Breaker
Rob McGarvey

Re: Funny
Posted by Learning to count on 27-Mar-2003 13:19:30 (#3615)

Seriously I just had been thinking about him after I read running counts trip report. I Realized that the ZG man was still missing. SO I put out feelers. They say con man border on genius and insanity. I like the grifter but obviously he is a criminal. from what the article says he ripped off a lot of people. Thats sad and he deserves what he is getting. I wondered why he had so much time on the internet. Oh well thats how the dice rolled.

Mayor Please elaborate.
Posted by panthercounter on 27-Mar-2003 13:44:14 (#3616)

You stated in a post "KO will not yield many early bets. KO tends to underestimate the count early and over estimate it late. That is the defect of the system. That said, it is still very good"

Please elaborate. Your knowledge is greatly appreciated.

Re: Mayor Please elaborate.
Posted by Learning to count on 27-Mar-2003 14:21:15 (#3617)

And why your at it can you put the out the strike numbers for LL two deck and six deck for KO! Thanks. LTC

Re: Mayor Please elaborate.
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Mar-2003 19:44:10 (#3623)

The strike point is aimed at the middle of the deck, so that if you reach the strike point at the "normal" moment, the true count (e.g. in Hi-Lo) is the same as the KO count.

For example, in a 6 deck shoe, if I am using Hi-Lo and I see 8 to 10 low cards off the top (getting towards a TC of +2), I am ready to raise my bet (and rightfully so), would you do that with KO? Thus, KO underestimates the edge early in the shoe. Likewise, it overestimates late in the shoe. It is a linear approximation to a non-linear function, but a good one.

KO is much better, by the way, for pitch games (1-2 decks). For shoes, you really should use (at least) Hi-Lo.

--Mayor

Re: Mayor Please elaborate.
Posted by Learning to count on 27-Mar-2003 20:22:17 (#3624)

Thanks mayor. Thats what I thought about KO. I always felt it was not as strong as a true count conversion is a shoe game. Panther Counter saw this last trip we had. He did great in single deck and double deck. When we turned over to six deckers he found that the positive counts were not as strong as in single deck. This is very revealing. Could you list the Lady Luck numbers for KO as you did for hi-lo and HIOPT? Thanks LTC

Re: Mayor Please elaborate.
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Mar-2003 20:29:49 (#3625)

I am not quite sure how to do the LL numbers using my sim program ... it is not as clear as you might think to sim an unbalanced count. I will think about the problem, and hopefully solve it soon >8-D

Re: Mayor Please elaborate.
Posted by CanKen on 28-Mar-2003 18:44:22 (#3628)

"For example, in a 6 deck shoe, if I am using Hi-Lo and I see 8 to 10 low cards off the top (getting towards a TC of +2), I am ready to raise my bet (and rightfully so), would you do that with KO? Thus, KO underestimates the edge early in the shoe. Likewise, it overestimates late in the shoe. It is a linear approximation to a non-linear function, but a good one."

What you say makes sense, but it doesn't take much effort when using KO to eye the discard tray for number of decks played and estimate where the count is relative to neutral. I do this for my exit,(wong-out), points and for indices that are not close to the pivot point, since they are the ones most affected by depth in the shoe. e.g. for 8 decks with IRC=0, Key Count=22, Pivot=32, I usually play through the first two decks, then exit if RC<2 after 2,
RC<7 after 3, RC<12 after 4, RC<17 after 5 etc. By my estimate these are pretty close to TC=-1. Plays with TC indices =0 are relatively common and can be made when RC is neutral or below. Bets can be increased before the textbook Key Count if the RC is far enough above neutral for that depth in the shoe.

Comments pro or con?

A Vegas Virgin's Long and Ranbling Trip Report (Part 2)
Posted by Running Count on 27-Mar-2003 17:09:40 (#3618)

[This is part 2 of my post-hoc attempt to catalogue my first trip to Vegas. Part 1 can be read HERE. To sum up, your narrator (newbie counter grad student) and his ragged band of mates: Special K (another newbie counter), KG (drunken buffoon), Ponce (fun-loving basic strategy player and Supplier of the Transportation), and Baumer (would-be rock-star, truculent genius) are sleeping off their first day in Vegas.

Mon 2 pm
BAC: 0.00 (but caffeine level climbing)
Bankroll: +8 units

Special K leans over from his seat and whispers in a falsetto, �Housekeeping!� I nearly spit my coffee (cream/sugar) onto the nice felt of the BJ table. Instead it goes up my nose. The last one (me) to turn in last night (and by last night I mean 5:30 am) forgot to hang the Do Not Disturb sign on the knob, and accordingly our much-needed REM was destroyed semi-hourly from 9 am on by knocks and muffled requests by hotel staff to clean our room.

We are in my new favorite of the lower strip mega resorts. It isn�t the newest, or the ritziest, but the Egyptian theme and the $5 mins on the tables fit my style. The conditions (6D, H17, LSR, 2 decks off) aren�t fantastic, but the number of cheap tables allowed for some convenient wonging. Special K and I camped out and back-counted some tables, covering by explaining the game to Baumer, and when the count gets to at least +2, one of us sat down and bets 1-2 units. If he stays for a while, the count must be staying high, so the other will sit down and bet 20-25 per. If the count drops, we leave. We are on our second shoe, and losing though not badly.

This morning (and by morning I mean 1 pm) we had wandered through the solidly nice and gigantic mega resort with the giant lion out front. Good games there, with decent pen, but we didn�t play more than an occasional wonged hand. Then across the strip to the medieval castle, which is showing its age. It looked and felt like a Disneyland attraction that was in some sort of labor dispute with the cleaning and maintenance staff. We left quickly and crossed the raised walkway to this gleaming, black Jewel of the Nile.

I�d heard that the elevators in this place are fun, as they move laterally, and tried to get into the elevator lobby. I went with the �I am a hotel guest, but lost my key� ploy, but they were on to that. I then came clean: �I really want to ride on the elevator. I can leave my ID with you, or something.� I was told that only hotel guests go on the elevators since 9/11, danger of terrorist attacks and all. I laughed at the arrogance of this place that thinks just because they have the world�s brightest spotlight, they are somehow on a level with Manhattan or the Golden Gate Bridge. Then I realized, were I an Islamic terrorist, the place in the US I would most like to blow up is Las Vegas. Baumer pointed out that he was no terrorist, and he kinda wanted to blow the place up anyway. We left.

KG and Ponce were playing tourist at NYNY and waiting in line to climb the rock wall. Special K, Baumer and I had left that horrid place (all the tackiness of a mall and not much good blackjack) seeking warmer climes. We still had an hour before we were to meet them at Santiago (the car), so the three of us ventured over to the classic tackiness of the tropical-themed resort across the Strip. Ugh, that place was awful. Luring the tourists in with rip-off promotions and lots of noise, the table conditions were average. We left, and dropped in at the quiet off-Strip joint next door since it was on the way to the parking lot Santiago rested in. I instantly wished we had more time: this place had one of the only S17 shoe games I�d seen, with LSR, and I watched as the old dealer put the cut card less than 50 cards from the bottom. I wiped the drool off the side of my mouth and left, vowing to return next trip.

Mon 8:30 pm
BAC: 0.05
Bankroll: -2 units

Downtown is everything I had imagined and more. I loved the pedestrian feel, the casinos opening straight onto the causeway, the overweight middle-aged crowds, the integration of porn directly into the casino lights. I should note that the sex industry in Vegas blew me away, figuratively speaking. I thought that, with the corporate and family-friendly influence in the last 20 years, the sex industry would have receded in Vegas to back rooms, rumors and the like. Instead, the naked-women theme has divided into a varied spectrum: On one end, the straight-forward pay-women-to-have-sex-with-you variety is still vibrant and visible. Flyers for prostitutes are everywhere, and virtually every piece of litter on the street features women w/ gigantic bozongas. Next, the strip clubs are not directly on the Strip, but nice men with carts offer free convenient rides to the clubs. Finally, the Strip itself has the new showgirl thing. From what I can tell, these are simply strip clubs that cost more and have better choreography. MGM, for instance, had billboards showing naked women with the tagline �the artistry of the nude.� Okay, whatever. I think the term �artistry� can be equally applied to the woman in front of the strip club in downtown who promised me some show involving ping-pong balls.

We had left a terrific SD game right on Fremont Street at which I had dropped about 10 units. I would return later to that one, but for now we had heard that the best value for your buffet dollar was to be had at Main Street Station. This proved true. Stomachs full, we cruised the downtown joints for good single deck. Jackie Gaughan�s properties, though they reminded me strongly of Reno/Sparks, offered some good games, and we spend a lot of time inspecting cigarette burns in the stained felt of these well known haunts.

Tues 6 am
BAC: 0.25
Bankroll: +6 units

I totter out of what must be the nicest downtown casino. KG and Baumer are long gone and probably sound asleep. Ponce drunkenly stares at the brightening sky and asks what day it is. Special K and I are drunk, but aware enough to have ditched the fantastic SD game at that last place. I had wanted to stay until I got dealt two queens of hearts in the shoe game, but in the SD game SK had just split 10s against a 6 at a +11 count, max bet out. The dealer loved it and we all whooped it up as he got an ace and a nine. The critter seemed unperturbed at first, but picked up the phone a minute later. Time to go.

The night had been rocky. Won solidly at three or four SD games, and blew it all on $2 craps w/ 10x odds. Then won some more on SD. Then blew it on another good craps game. I wish I didn�t like craps so much, but its so social, and I love not having to be vigilant all the time. I wish I had more experience at 2D, since there�s a lot of it. Next time.

Special K wanted to return to the Jackie Gaughan place on Fremont just off the Fremont Experience, and since the shift had changed, I thought it was safe to go back. Last time, I was sitting at a full table, getting 2 hands to 7 spots, with me playing two of them. To my left, three young asian college students drank and bet fairly low. I was helping them w/ basic strategy and they were appreciative and fun. To my right sat two young women: one drunk, annoying, and awful, and the other sweet and new to the game. The game proceeded fairly well, and I was spreading from $4 (the min w/ 2 hands) to $25 (call out �checks play� but no one cared).

First hand of a deck, the low cards pour out. The sweet girl asks for advice against the dealer 3, and the awful girl tells her to hit her A-4. She gets another Ace. Awful girl tells her to stick, and I groan internally. I hit my low hands and stick. The first young asian kid has a 12 and doesn�t know what to do. His friend suggests hitting, and he does, and gets a 9. He�s psyched. The awful woman groans aloud. The dealer shows 13, and draws a 7. The woman mutters, �f__king hit against a 13. Stupid a__hole.� I can�t stand this. I lean over and tell her that the kid made the right basic strategy play (okay, so the TC says stay, but there�s a principle at stake here), and she actually told her friend to stand on a 6. She insists her friend had a hard 13. I sigh and push out my two max bets. Cards come down and I have a soft 19 and two 2s against the dealer 4. I split my 2s, and the awful girl goes nuts. �Split 2s! That�s nuts! You�re gonna f__k up the deck!� I get a 9 then a king on the first, then another nine and a ten on the second. The asian kids cheer and the awful girl looks pissed. I stare at her. The dealer busts, and I collect my $75.

Suddenly I realize that the pit was paying close attention. In my glee at showing up the floppie to the right, I hadn�t been very subtle. To my horror, she stopped the dealer from collecting the cards and fanned the discards from the first hand. She stared at me and then walked away without a word. Special K gaped from across the pit. I immediately picked up my chips and walked away, imagining all sorts of things I wanted to say to the awful girl.

The sun was shining brightly by the time we left the Sweaty Spaniard for the 2nd time. I was down to even again, but with no heat and happy at the adventures of earlier. I felt like a real counter. The cab ride to the hotel was quick, and I closed my eyes and smiled. Tomorrow would be a day of farewells and driving. Baumer was off to play a show with his band in LA, Special K was flying back, and KG, Ponce and I were taking the overland route. As we pulled into the valet circle of our hotel, I congratulated Vegas for being all that I expected and more. I thought about KG shouting �who here wants some C*CK� to the women at the hotel pool and almost getting thrown out. I thought about Baumer�s ridiculous Bugsy suit that he almost wore. I thought about the dealer who told us to spread with abandon � no one would care at our level of action. I thought about all the future trips that I will inevitably make and the stories those trips will generate.

Then I thought about my fianc� and my apartment. Okay, maybe there IS more to life than Vegas, but man, for a desert oasis, it sure is somethin�.

Final tallies:

Bankroll: -6 units (-10 on craps, +4 on BJ)
Free drinks: 13 (8 beers, 3 g&t�s, 2 bailey�s and coffee)
Good times: Had by all.

Running Count

Check out "The Best Posts" *NM*
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Mar-2003 18:29:14 (#3619)

Re: Check out "The Best Posts"
Posted by Learning to count on 27-Mar-2003 18:38:42 (#3621)

I SECOND THAT NOMINATION MAYOR!!!!

I'm honored =) *NM*
Posted by Running Count on 28-Mar-2003 11:28:39 (#3626)

Re: A Vegas Virgin's Long and Rambling Trip Report (Part 2)
Posted by Learning to count on 27-Mar-2003 18:36:55 (#3620)

Brilliant! lOTS OF FUN! OH TO BE YOUNG AND living large on the strip. Thats what good friends, las vegas and card counting can be FUN! I really miss Vegas NOW! :( LTC

Re: report,,you should be a writer,excellent . *NM*
Posted by hammer on 27-Mar-2003 19:43:35 (#3622)

Re: Not bad...
Posted by Sonny on 28-Mar-2003 18:01:54 (#3627)

It sounds like you guys had a lot of fun. I was hoping for a little more from the Advantage Play side of things. The majority of it was just drunk kids running around vegas playing bad shoe games (6D, H17, cut card at 2...really? It's pretty easy to find S17 with decent penetration on the strip).

Now, I don't want to sound like a dick here (I can say dick right? Just not A$$) since I know everyone else loved your TR, but I didn't get much out of it. A good story yes, but a good trip report, not really.

-Sonny-

P.S.-I do love the running BAC meter though. Brilliant.

That was the point, but I have a Q
Posted by Running Count on 03-Apr-2003 20:28:58 (#3641)

Sonny,

You are dead-on. We WERE (mostly) just a bunch of drunk kids let loose in Sin City. Our advantage play was mostly on the SD Downtown, since that's what the 2 of us who count actually know how to play. We didn't really try to play the shoes for much of an advantage -- I was too busy being a tourist.

I am curious though. You mentioned that is not hard to find good S17 w/ decent pen on the Strip. I would love to find this game on the strip when I go back, but despite my reports on table conditions I brought with me, I found even the places that were supposed to be good had all H17. What was I missing?

I don't need specific names, but should I be looking for rule variations WITHIN the casinos? The few good games I did find in the nicer Strip places were all mins above $10, which puts true adv. play out of my price range.

I see from your profile you're a red chipper. Where do you find good action?

Cheers,

p.s. Thanks for getting the message board back up, Mayor and/or ADMIN!

Good 6D action *LINK*
Posted by Sonny on 04-Apr-2003 11:28:37 (#3654)

When I was there last December, the MGM and San Remo offered a great game (6D S17 DAS LS, less than a 0.3% house edge) with decent penetration and $5 minimums. Slots-o-Fun had the same deal but without surrender and $3 minimums. With such a small house edge you can Wong in on almost any + count, and the $3 minimums make it easy to drop way down if you don't want to sit out a few hands.

I know that Bally's, Luxor, Mandalay, and Monte Carlo used to have the same games with $5 minimums, and the Riviera had the same without surrender, but I haven't checked in a while. A lot of casinos have tightened up lately.

Sometimes casinos (like Bally's) will offer BOTH H17 AND S17, so you may have to check different pits to find the best games.

I'm like you, I like to stick with the single deck and double deck games downtown. I LOVE the games at the Western (only a 0.17 house edge and low $1-$2 minimums with hardly any heat!). The Las Vegas Club, the Plaza, and Arizona Charlie's are also sometimes good bets. I also love the 6D game at the Silverton because they had $1 minimums last time I was there (maybe because it was Christmas Day?). It's easy to get a huge spread when your smallest bet is only $1, and you don't even need to Wong out (but I did anyway).

You should check out my last trip report. It's long as hell (and not as exciting as yours), but it has a few good nuggets of wisdom in it. It also has a few interresting experiences.

-Sonny-

P.S.- Did you estimate your BAC level for your report or did you actually check it? I noticed that the Imperial Palace has a BAC machine in the casino near the elevators, but it costs a quarter. Of course, I don't think I would want to put my mouth anywhere near it!

Re: Good 6D action
Posted by Running Count on 04-Apr-2003 12:30:13 (#3655)

Sonny,

I din't find much S17 at the places you mentioned. Could it have changed since December? San R. was great, but Lux and Mand. both were H17. I'm sure about that. Not a biggie -- I will scour the casinos next time I go to LV, especially if I am with a couple of guys who can also count. I would love to hit the Strip with some team play. I'm too cheap for trackjack, but maybe I'll bite the bullet and sign up prior to the next trip.

If you like good single and double deck, take a trip to Reno/Sparks. I'll show you around. It's like Downtown LV, only with many more options, less heat for red chippers, and everyone is far, far more depressing. (I once asked a dealer what brought him to Reno from Anchorage, AK. He answered that his wife had a sleeping disorder, and he had hoped Reno would be better. "Oh," I said, "Did she have trouble with the long days and nights?" "No," he said, "she kept waking up with other men.")

Yep, Reno is terrific.

RC
chief_running_count@yahoo.com

Re: Good 6D action
Posted by Sonny on 04-Apr-2003 14:19:26 (#3656)

Yeah, I haven't been to a lot of those Strip casinos lately, so they probably have tightened up their games. With the spread of 6:5 blackjack payouts on the strip I haven't been spending much time there other than my "old favorites".

I was in Reno about two weeks ago. Their rules are pretty bad, but the penetration mostly makes up for it. I didn't play much in Reno because of extreme crowding (weekends you know), but I hit a few casinos in Sparks. A few of the smaller places even let me take pictures at the table (I was pulling the tourist act). I had a great time, and it was a cute looking town. I'd definately like to get back there soon.

-Sonny-

Color KO
Posted by Cadillac on 28-Mar-2003 21:54:43 (#3629)

I guess this question only applies to anyone familiar w/ color ko.
The author says to stand on 16 vs 10, 16 vs 9, and 15 vs 10 in very positive counts rather than surrender. Is this correct?

Re: Color KO
Posted by Cyrano on 29-Mar-2003 13:19:42 (#3633)

Strange. I got red for 16 vs 10, which would mean stand at a very low count, no? And for 16 vs 9, it's purple, which means to stand at a very high count, no? As for 15 vs. 10, it was black, which meant stand at pivot point. Maybe I'm reading it wrong. Since I only looked at this with a passing glance, I really can't give you any definite reasons why you should do this or even if it's right, but intuition would state that you stand at 16 vs 10 at low counts because they have a higher chance of not drawing a T or an A. As for 16 vs 9 and 15 vs 10, I couldn't tell you, but it seems to correspond with Wong's PBJ as well as BJ for Blood surrender numbers (low on 16 vs 10, high on 16 vs 9, and 0 at 15 vs 10), so I'm inclined to believe CKO is correct.

Hopes this helps!

---

I guess this question only applies to anyone familiar w/ color ko.
The author says to stand on 16 vs 10, 16 vs 9, and 15 vs 10 in very positive counts rather than surrender. Is this correct?

Re: Color KO
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 29-Mar-2003 20:23:12 (#3635)

Do the colors follow the spectrum from red to perfect clarity? That would make it rather easy to remember.

Re: Color KO
Posted by Cyrano on 29-Mar-2003 22:18:18 (#3636)

It's probably best to post the link.

http://www.gofor21.com/cko.htm

H17 and S17
Posted by Yaada on 03-Apr-2003 15:58:02 (#3639)

I've noticed from what Ive been reading that on a 6D, DOA, DAS the difference in advantage between H17 and S17 is about -.20. Roughly -.60 and -.40 respectively.

When playing a H17 game is the advantage basically -.40 throughout the entire game until the point when the dealer actually has A,6? Does the house advantage jump from -.40 to -.60 once the dealer gets an A,6 but will stay -.40 throughout the entire H17 game?

(Newbie player here - hope that question makes sense)

Thanks,

Yaada

Re: H17 and S17
Posted by ivy kid on 03-Apr-2003 19:48:08 (#3640)

I do understand your question. What you're not realizing is that you don't know what cards will be dealt to the player or the dealer before each hand, shoe, or 4-hour session.

Your question is just like asking this: "Are the odds for a blackjack game -.4 percent until you are dealt a blackjack, at which point the odds are now 150 percent (not quite, given possible pushes) for the player?"

Thing is, the difference between H17 and S17 is such that, before you know what cards will be dealt, the odds for H17 are around -.60 percent, and for S17 -.40 percent. This already takes into account the odds the A,6 combination will appear for the dealer and the odds that hitting will improve the dealer's hand.

I hope that helps!

Re: H17 and S17
Posted by Yaada on 04-Apr-2003 02:13:42 (#3649)

Yes it does thank you.

I guess basically .4 and .6 is the average advantage the house has in that type of game - H17 or S17. And preferably you want a game where the average advantage is the lowest for the house. Got it. I think. Hehehe thank you.

Re: H17 and S17
Posted by Wong Out on 03-Apr-2003 21:14:07 (#3642)

The % adv (0.4 and 0.6) refers to the average disavantage that you will see if you play BS and play each hand of the shoe to the given pen. Your edge on each individual hand will vary wildly as each card is played. For example you first card is an Ace (now your edge for that hand has jumped to about 58%); if its a 10 then your edge is about 13%. If your first card is low and the dealer gets a ten now you have a significant neg advantage for the hand. Add up all the hands that you expect to play and the overall edge will approach your 0.4% number. BJ would be much more fun to play if we could alter our bets after seeing our first card....Hmmmm....would make me want to quit the day job....

Thanks for your patience! ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 03-Apr-2003 23:31:09 (#3644)

We appreciate your patience over the past few days as we experienced technical issues. The message boards are fully functional again. We welcome all new users and value our existing members. Thank you for making CardCounter.com a valuable place for information and discussion.

We also would like to take a moment and thank the MAYOR for his valuable contributions to the website. His monthly podiums and posts help us all become better blackjack players. Please take a moment and thank the MAYOR.

Re: Thanks for your patience!
Posted by panthercounter on 03-Apr-2003 23:43:56 (#3645)

Thanks for the great information.

Thanks Mayor
Posted by Cyrano on 04-Apr-2003 02:01:39 (#3647)

Though sometimes we may disagree, I value your opinions tremendously. Through your posts and your insightful articles, you really have been invaluable in my quest for knowledge at this game. Keep up the EXCELLENT work! ;-)

As for you, Management, you've done a great job too in improving on what is already a great site! Thank you too.

Re: Thumbs up for the mayor
Posted by counterfromumass on 04-Apr-2003 02:21:49 (#3650)

Thank you for helping me become a better blackjack player

April Podium
Posted by The Mayor on 04-Apr-2003 08:51:49 (#3651)

Because the site has been down, I have not been able to work on the Podium for this month. I hope to complete it in the next couple of days. Sorry for the delay.

--Mayor

Re: April Podium
Posted by panthercounter on 05-Apr-2003 13:34:38 (#3665)

We should always remember what is most important. Thanks Mayor.

Re: April Podium
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 06-Apr-2003 15:25:12 (#3674)

Always look forward to the Mayors monthly speach. I am also behind this month having just moved. Will hopefully be back to full speed in a few days.

Re: Thanks for your patience!
Posted by kid Counter on 04-Apr-2003 11:19:08 (#3653)

Thanks for the wisdom!

Risk-averse?
Posted by Cyrano on 04-Apr-2003 02:03:42 (#3648)

Can someone tell me more about "risk averse" indices? I came across this term and was wondering what's so hot about it? There were no definitions given so any help would be greatly appreciated.

Re: Risk-averse?
Posted by The Mayor on 05-Apr-2003 10:14:53 (#3662)

Huge topic, but I want to keep it short.

The idea is that what most of us care about is earning money safely. A job is the easiest way to do that. It has EV (expected value) some nicely positive amount, and SD (standard deviation) = 0, there is no change from week to week in our salary. Thus the ration EV/SD = +infinity. That is as good as it gets.

If you make a very small amount at a table game, but the SD is huge, then EV/SD is very close to 0. This means you will go through wild swings while making very little. Not fun, this will wipe out most bankrolls.

Thus, at blackjack what is important is not getting the maximum EV out of every situation, but rather maximizing EV/SD. Traditional indices maximize EV. Risk averse indices maximize EV/SD.

For example, splitting T's right on the index number means you are putting out twice as much money for an EV that may be 2 cents higher. Do you really want to risk that "second" max bet when your EV on that bet is 2 cents? The RA index has you making that second max bet to split the T's when the EV on the second bet justifies the risk, in other words, the wild fluctuations (SD) are justified because the EV is finally high enough. Thus a much higher count is required in RA.

In general, RA indices are applicable whenever you are going to put more money on the table in +EV situations. Important RA numbers include T-T vs. 4,5,6, and doubling T against T or A.

Hope this helps.

--Mayor

Re: Risk-averse?
Posted by Wong Out on 05-Apr-2003 13:42:59 (#3666)

The major advantage offered by RA indices for those of us on a limited br is that you may be able to set a more aggressive (i.e. higher) bet schedule (with the reduced risk adverse indices) thus allowing you to make as much or more as with the correct indices.

Thanks for the explainations *NM*
Posted by Cyrano on 05-Apr-2003 14:23:14 (#3667)

Re: Risk-averse?
Posted by CanKen on 07-Apr-2003 09:47:16 (#3682)

As others have often said, Schlesinger's "Blackjack Attack 2" is a reference we should all have on our shelves. He treats RA indices in some depth in Ch. 12, Part II. The one which is farthest from the normal index is for doubling 10vs10. RA is TC=7 instead of 4. There are six others listed as well.

A 6/5 call to action
Posted by The Mayor on 04-Apr-2003 16:30:43 (#3657)

Please read Al Rogers' letter on 6/5 blackjack (in the "New" section on the home page).

I am anxious to hear comments about this letter and to start a dialog about other concrete actions that can be taken.

Great letter, Al!

--Mayor

p.s., Al is an employee of bj21.com, and a truly nice guy.

Re: A 6/5 call to action
Posted by panthercounter on 04-Apr-2003 17:32:48 (#3658)

Great letter. The 6/5 game should be eliminated.

Race to the Bottom: An econ. student's view
Posted by Running Count on 04-Apr-2003 17:44:29 (#3659)

Here, Here, Al! The 6:5 game is akin the sucker games Bob Stupak invented to lure the mathematically impaired into the former Stratosphere. No-Bust Blackjack, Craps-less Craps, etc.

I wanted to add my thoughts on the degradation of the blackjack games over time (not just the 6:5 game), from the perspective of casino economics. I probably know less about casinos and even econ than many on this board, but that's not going to stop me from opining freely.

Casinos compete with each other for the scarce resource of gambling dollars. Competition leads the casinos to offer various extras to secure consumers' business and loyalty. We have all seen this in action: comps, pretty fountains, free drinks, etc.

When competitors can offer some "public good," or benefit that consumers want, but costs the producers nothing or little to offer, the competing entities engage in a "Race to the Bottom" to offer more and more of that cheap benefit until it is gone. For example, Delaware is the official home to most of the Fortune 500 companies (in part) because they offer the most liberal liability laws in the country. It is tough to beat the corporations as a consumer in Delaware courts under Delaware law. Offering generous legal protection to the corporations costs Delaware little, but benefits them greatly because they have more corporate citizens, who pay taxes. The burden is borne by the public, who suffers from unaccountable corporations.

Here's where the Race to the Bottom comes to Las Vegas. Card counters will target the casinos with the most generous conditions. Like the states vying to offer the most corporate-friendly conditions, the casinos will vie to offer counter-UNfriendly conditions. The loser is stuck with all the counters. That casino will then tighten up its rules, and the next casino on the list bears the burden. In the end, all the casinos "race" to make their conditions no better for counters than their peers. The result is horrible conditions everywhere. Since the ploppies don't pay attention to conditions much, worsening the rules is a "public good." The casinos gain a lot from making their tables worse for everyone. The public loses (counters especially).

The solution for the Race to the Bottom and the Public Good problem in traditional economics is for the government to step in and regulate. For casinos, the only way to fix the problem is for the Gaming Board to step in and do something.

Which is where the 6:5 game comes in. If the Gaming Board acts here, the casinos will offer more, better blackjack. The public good problem will be somewhat aleviated. If they don't act, the table games will continue to deteriorate until they are finally simply carnival games on which the tourists can toss away money. Maybe, the Gaming Board can mandate that no casino offering BJ can provide worse than a 0.5% advantage game for the BS player. But now I'm dreaming.

Re: Race to the Bottom: An econ. student's view
Posted by Double21 on 04-Apr-2003 20:39:44 (#3660)

Nice post. In addition to your obvious knowledge of economics you are a very good writer.

I think the points you make about "racing to the bottom" make alot of sense. My only issue with your posts is at the end where you reference government involvement to correct this mess. I, for one, think we have too much "big government" now and I sure as hell don't want more. I shudder to think what would happen to blackjack if politicans and bureaucrats took over.

The solution is for enough customers to not play these carvival games and other bad offerings. Consumer education would greatly help. When enough of the typical casino customers vote with their wallets you can safely bet better games will quickly appear. But not before!

How do we make that happen?

Re: Race to the Bottom: An econ. student's view
Posted by The Mayor on 05-Apr-2003 09:46:10 (#3661)

Great post, thanks for sharing your knowledge.

Re: Race to the Bottom: An econ. student's view
Posted by Rutager on 05-Apr-2003 19:30:27 (#3668)

I disagree.

Your solution is very liberal is assuming that big government needs to regulate everything in order for casinos to survive. The amount of government control and regulation in business is still a very large and very open question. This very question has long been the center of political and economic debate. I don't believe it can be simply answered with your "race to the bottom" argument.

What if casinos continued to "race" to come up with the worse games, BUT they clearly identify the odds of the games and do not give any games deceiving names? It's possible that the ploppies would ignore the 'bj pays 1:5' sign on the 'Super-Rip-Off 21' table and keep playing these games. Do you think in this case the government should step in and regulate to stop this?

I am upset by game deterioration as much as anyone else on this board. But as a capitalist, I do not believe that the government should force the casinos to have to offer me the games I want (provided there was nothing shadey going on like price fixing or deception).

However, I do agree that false advertising should be prevented by the government. Casinos are intentionally marketing 6:5 bj as 'single deck bj' because they know consumers will think that they are playing a game with really good odds when they are not. This is clearly intentional deception. Of course, the success of Al Roger's letter probably hinges on what the official definition of "blackjack" is.

But still, you said some intering stuff, Running Count. I look forward to reading your future posts and you sharing your econ know-how.

Btw, although this has probably already been said, I think everyone on this board should try to spread the word about 6:5 bj to the ploppy community. When I sit down at a bj table at a place that offers 6:5, I sometime tell the people at the table how much money I lost at the 6:5 table. I go on to say how I thought the table was supposed to have good odds, but later found out it was a sucker bet. I don't care if the pb hears me saying this because it makes me sound like a ploppy when I pretend to have played the game.

-Rutager

Big Gov't: a Rejoinder
Posted by Running Count on 06-Apr-2003 18:32:48 (#3675)

No fan of Big Government, I! I learned what I know about economics from the classic market-based school, which distrusts regulation as presumptively inefficient.

On the other hand, even corporations themselves agree that they need regulation in some instances to prevent market "externalities" (e.g., the Race to the Bottom). While I think governments generally botch attempts to mettle in markets like the gambling industry (see California's lottery as an example), sometimes it is appropriate.

Two examples of GOOD results of Nevada regulating gambling: full-pay video poker, incentives to stop dealers from cheating you. I would like to add "supression of the deceptive 6:5 blackjack game" to this list. That's all I was suggesting as the role of government here.

I think the most important thing about the 6:5 game, as Rutager pointed out, is that it plays on the correct presumption by ploppies that they are better off w/ single deck. I knew this as a ploppie, myself. My post was more to get at the general issue with the degradation of the overall game over time.

Cheers,

p.s. Its tough to be a fiscal conservative and a social liberal in a country that doesn't see those as compatible. Harumph.

Re: Big Gov't: a Rejoinder
Posted by Rutager on 07-Apr-2003 02:08:03 (#3680)

Interesting.

I'd be interested in hearing any other stories about gambling laws in california and nevada.

-Rutager

ps- fiscal conservative and social liberal? You might want to check out the libertarian party. (www.lp.org)

What "New Section"? *NM*
Posted by phantom007 on 07-Apr-2003 04:32:25 (#3681)

Re: What "New Section"?
Posted by Learning to count on 07-Apr-2003 14:58:31 (#3689)

Go to the home page and scroll down to the new items section.

nice forum here
Posted by gambler on 05-Apr-2003 11:34:02 (#3663)

I am at the first time on this page and just want to check, if it is moderated or not.

Re: nice forum here ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 05-Apr-2003 13:32:12 (#3664)

Welcome gambler! Please fill out a profile and become a member.

Mayor
Posted by Cadillac on 05-Apr-2003 20:27:30 (#3669)

I use ko. In your post on 3/27 you said that ko is better in 1-2 deck games. Were you saying better than hi-lo in 1-2 deck games, or better than ko in 6-8 deck games?
Also, as I understand it, more indices need to be learned for single deck. Are the indices in the ko book(preferred and full) correct for single deck?

Thanx Alot

Re: Mayor ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 06-Apr-2003 00:34:08 (#3670)

Welcome to CC.COM. We would like to invite you to sign up and create a profile. Join our group! It's free! We are united in playing 21 with skill and knowledge

Re: Mayor
Posted by The Mayor on 06-Apr-2003 10:00:02 (#3671)

>In your post on 3/27 you said that ko is better in 1-2 deck games. Were you saying better than hi-lo in 1-2 deck games, or better than ko in 6-8 deck games?

KO gets weaker as the number of decks increases. Don Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack 2nd ed gives all the details of the relative worth of various systems in various games (you should get it, it is an incredible book). Hi-lo is marginally stronger than KO in single deck/double deck, but MUCH stronger than KO in 6/8 deck games.

> Are the indices in the ko book(preferred and full) correct for single deck?

E.G. the strategy matrix on page 85 -- this is for all numbers of decks because it is based on the pivot point, which varies with the number of decks.

Take care,

-Mayor

Battling Pirates of the Caribbean
Posted by Learning to count on 06-Apr-2003 11:13:18 (#3672)

Ship: Navigator Of the Seas RCL
Cruise: Seven days eastern Caribbean
Time: Recently
Win/loss: +120 units profit
Trip High: 240 units over BR
Trip lows: 40 units profit over bankroll; Never went below BR entire trip.

Game: Six decks 1 to 2 deck cuts; double on any two cards; das, except split aces three times recieve one card and no couble after split aces; Split three times any other pair; play up to two hands minimum bet to max. min/max bet 5-100 (wheel of madness) or 10-200 on other tables. 8 Tables of BJ.

*CAUTION*: Cards are always in the shoe, never new, and never checked and washed in front of players. I ASKED TO VIEW THE CARDS AND WAS SOUNDLY REFUSED. Many times I had high continuing plus counts +9 to +15 rc's up to the cut card and lost up to 10 times in a row. SD at its worst???? I was suspicious!

Play strategy: Strict Wonging and entering at average TC of plus three. Played two hands at advantage TC's. This was due the way the count ended up before the next deal.

Bad: Crowded drunk ploppy conditions at night. Min/Max bets allowed low but can be overcome by playing two hands. Dealers made many mispays and misreads of card totals(worked both ways for thecasino and me). Dealers spoke pigeon english to excellent english. No heat at all. Recieved bad stares when banged out two $75 dollar bets and recieved BJ back to back. Wonging can be tedious and boring.

Good: No heat. Dealers are below vegas average intelligence. Ask to see burn card and most dealers will show it. A couple of dealers flipped bottmom card and showed it and continued to play it. Survelliance is non existant. I found two dealer front loading situations and took advantage.

Over all oppinion: Good game for moderate EV. Definite Wonging enviroment. I played average of three hours a day. Worth playing.

Sites: Drunk ploppies and one guy won over six thousand at craps!

Re: Battling Pirates of the Caribbean
Posted by The Mayor on 06-Apr-2003 11:29:57 (#3673)

Congrats on the profitable trip. This sounds like a very good game.

Nice TR.

--Mayor

Thanks for the report LTC...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 06-Apr-2003 18:39:48 (#3676)

...sounds like very profitable games, as long as its on the level. How many PC's were present in the pit?

ANS

Re: Thanks for the report LTC...
Posted by Learning to count on 06-Apr-2003 19:15:39 (#3678)

The first few days everything was normal. The middle part of the trip was very disturbing. I had beautiful counts and I kept losing. I would have 20, 19 even twentone after a double the dealer was beating me with small card twenties and twenty ones. I was suspicious especially after losing 600 after two shoes; small and large bets. I kept losing. They brought out the shoes from the back and never washed them or changed decks. The decks were visibly bent and even saw a few cards with creases in them. The last couple of days I kicked ass and ended with a 600+ win. I was playing red. Average bet was two hands of 25. All in all I think it was legit. I think a good team good kick the casinos butts. Eventually I am going to write a report of cruise ship casinos. I feel a lot of money could be made here. The only problem this trip cost averages around 1000 a person for seven days. I won big the first night due to being aggressive in my betting two hands up to 100-150. I was on a roll. The mid week killed me and made me paranoid. After that I was consrvative with hig bets at two at 75 dollars. I won consistantly but I should have bet aggressively. I could have won more. Live and learn I always say and be conservative. I see alot of Ap's over bet when winning and end up getting thier butts kicked. LTC PS This would be a great CC.COM get together cruise party? Any thoughts???

yes...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 06-Apr-2003 19:27:45 (#3679)

...I have some thoughts, e-mail me immmediately if possible.

ANS

Re: Thanks for the report LTC...
Posted by The Mayor on 07-Apr-2003 10:08:22 (#3683)

At $1000/person, I doubt this game has an edge at all. If you include tipping (a must on cruise ships) your expenses may be $1200 or more. If you want to get back to even at the tables, you are looking at about 20-30 hours of play at your levels.

I think the day cruises are where the money is at -- Mr. Lucky over at bj21.com made 100k his first year attacking those (spreading up to 2 hands of $500 each without heat).

But, if you enjoyed your vacation, well, that's another story.

--Mayor

Re: Thanks for the report LTC...
Posted by Learning to count on 07-Apr-2003 11:17:23 (#3684)

True. The EV on this trip will not support a profit to overcome expenses. But with a team effort I think some profit can be achieved to offset or maybe even break even. You would definitely have to invest some time and effort to do so. Then there is the element of suspicion of cheating that I still dwell upon by the casino. The benifits are that the cruise is fantastic and can be had at times for under 100 dollars a day and if you watch out for the alcoholic beverages and sodas you will keep expenses down. I would not suggest this to anyone looking to earn money from thats for sure. I would suggest this to those who want a great vacation and want to be pampered and gamble.

Re: Thanks for the report LTC...
Posted by The Mayor on 07-Apr-2003 12:10:45 (#3685)

How would a team make this any better? I am not sure if I understand. Each still has to pay the $1000 to get on board. The only benefit would be a combined bankroll and a quicker trip to the illusive "long run" -- but the expenses are still huge and if you go to the trouble to put together a team you trust, the games in LV are still ripe for the picking -- and free!

A great vacation, with some fun BJ on the side. That's what you get. I might like to do that some day 8-)

--Mayor

Re: Thanks for the report LTC...
Posted by Learning to count on 07-Apr-2003 14:56:11 (#3688)

You are right mayor I too do not see any real profit here but I do see a great time for all! When are we all going?????? : ) LTC

Re: Thanks for the report LTC...
Posted by Cadillac on 07-Apr-2003 21:01:08 (#3690)

i'm in

whats the pen? *NM*
Posted by Brick on 08-Apr-2003 10:24:59 (#3692)

4-5 decks played *NM*
Posted by Learning to count on 08-Apr-2003 13:44:27 (#3694)

Quick Northern Nevada TR
Posted by Running Count on 06-Apr-2003 19:08:12 (#3677)

Brevity is the soul of Trip Reports, right? So here is a very quick TR of my spur of the moment trip yesterday.

My finace and I went snowboarding on Sat in fantastic powder on Sat, and decided to stay the night in Nevada rather than drive home that night. She'd never seen Reno, so I showed off the "city" a little. FOr dinner, we found a great all-you-can-eat Sushi place (called, appropriately enough, the Sushi Club). I wouldn't have belived it unless I had eaten it (I'm a snob about hamachi), but $19 each got us all the pretty good fish we could fit in our stomachs. Mmmm.

After the tour, she (smartly) went to bed and I (stupidly) stayed up half the night to play blackjack. Conditions at this hotel resort outside reno were, as always, terrific. Ro7 pen or better (the dealers would guage the deck and see if they could squeeze out more hands), DA2, NDAS. But it was crowded and slow. Sometimes a window would open when I could play heads up or with another player, but 5-6 ploppies per table was the norm.

Played about 4 sessions of 1 hour. No heat. Slow cocktail service. Down 20 units. Bummer.

I'll try again next week!

How much to spread for edge? *LINK*
Posted by Casual Counter on 07-Apr-2003 12:54:25 (#3686)

Good day all,

I originally asked this question in a response to my original thread, but it's buried pretty far down the board so I'm bumping it up here to reach more eyeballs. I've linked the original post for good measure. The original post also contains my performance report on my third trip as a counter.

In my discussion with the Mayor, he had said that a 1-5 spread was not enough to beat a Double Deck game. I've heard this sentiment from others as well.

The KO book (bottom of page 90) has an EV table that states you can get a .33 EV on a DD game spreading only 1-2 and a 1.04 EV spreading 1-5. Is KO just being too optimistic here. I'd love to sim this stuff but I don't have CVBJ (sp?) yet.

Would appreciate everyone's thoughts.

Thanks,
CC

Re: How much to spread for edge?
Posted by The Mayor on 07-Apr-2003 13:28:15 (#3687)

Spread as much as possible.

If you give me specifics -- a DD game, your unit size (max bet, preferably), and system (please, not KO -- a balanced system), I will run some sims showing your return for various spreads (with a fixed max bet).

--Mayor

Re: How much to spread for edge?
Posted by Casual Counter on 08-Apr-2003 03:21:08 (#3691)

Mayor,

Thanks for the offer, but that's okay. I'm just interested in figuring out what the shortcomings of KO are compared to the more advanced systems. At this point, I'm still just a newb using KO, and it's far too early for me to consider investing the effort to upgrade my system. I'd like to see how I feel about the whole thing after a couple of years of play. If I remain interested, I'm sure I'll upgrade my system eventually. Remember, I'm only playing casually. I won't see another playing trip for at least 3 months now, (probably more) after managing 3 in the first 3 months of the year.

I'll also probably invest in CVBJ and run sims of my own one of these days. I beleive I can create custom playing sims in CVBJ to use for practice too, right? I have Blackjack Counter now, which doesn't allow actual continuous play, just drilling w/o an upgrade to the next version.

Appreciate your input and enjoy the site.

Thanks,
CC

Plus, minus and all that jazz.
Posted by Hinoon on 08-Apr-2003 13:41:35 (#3693)

Hey there all.

So, after a good few weeks of really drilling on my counting (just using +/-, nothing fancy like Reverse Revere with a Double ZenUston side count.), I'm pretty speedy. bju21.com's drill really helped me pick up the pace, and I recommend it to any of the newbies out there who find themselves stuck at a deskjob where flipping an actual deck of cards would cause trouble. I practice while I'm on the phone, to mimic the myriad of distractions a casino holds.

So, with my new-found confidence in my abilities to count in increments of 1, I've decided to take the plunge and try to practice BS with the count.

My main trouble is that if I get distracted, I "flip" the count. -6 becomes 6, and I'm screwed. I've caught myself doing it, but by the time it registers, it's slowed me down and my pacing is all off. Is this common? Are there any mental tricks you use to remember which side of the coin you're on? I've been thinking about some physical device...clenching my fist on negative counts (perhaps something less agressive), but am sure that stuff like that would eventually get noticed by the heavies in the heavens.

Is this yet another plateau to overcome with practicepracticepractice? I never had this trouble with purely keeping a running count, so clearly it's the addition of the BS data that's causing the trouble.

Ok, back to the grind.

Thanks for any advice.

Re: Plus, minus and all that jazz.
Posted by LEARNING TO COUNT on 08-Apr-2003 13:49:25 (#3695)

PRACTICE PRACTICE PRACTICE...YOU MUST HAVE BS DOWN FIRST...IF YOU ARE NOT BELOW 15 SECONDS ON YOUR ONE,TWO AND THREE CARD PILL DRILLS THEN KEEP WORKING AT IT...THE LAST THING IS THE ZEN MODE DEEP CONCENTRATION THAT COMES WITH PRACTICE PRACTICE AND MORE PRACTICE. IT WILL COME.

Re: Plus, minus and all that jazz.
Posted by ivy kid on 08-Apr-2003 14:37:19 (#3697)

Also, I'm not sure how you are counting, but let me tell you what works for me.

You said you sometimes invert your court, from -6 to 6. How do you count negative numbers in your head? Do you say "minus 6?" or "negative 6?" I always say "N6" to kill a syllable and wasted thought. The "N" stands for negative, of course. So when I'm counting I think "N4, N3, N4, N5," etc. The increased speed and "N" designation makes it a lot tougher to invert the count out of either confusion from counting too fast or from simply forgetting what side of the number line you are on.

Re: Plus, minus and all that jazz.
Posted by Stephen Bauer on 08-Apr-2003 21:41:28 (#3703)

I use the Uston APC count for low deck games. A major advantage of using a count that has a seperate Ace side count is that you can do the ace count using phonetics as the tag on. I also Use the N prefix for a negative running count and another ending to denote the Ace count.I count ZoeZah (zero count, Zero aces played). Ah, E, Ou, Da are the first 4 aces. N2Ah (entuah) is pronounced as a single word. You get used to mixing the word sounds to retain the information, and you generally never have to change more than one syllable for the next card. After you have been plying using the phonetics for a while the names become " states " where you know the rules for that state and rarely think about it...the deck starts you are dealt a 10 (N3Za) and a 7 (N1Za). The dealer Has an ace showing for a count of (N1Ah) en-won-a. His hole card turns out to be a eight(Zoe-Ah). You lose. If later on the count is (Fi-Ou) five with three aces played, and you are only starting into the second half of the deck, The five is good but the bet is reduced due to the fact that its already (Ou) aces and it should only be (E) Aces. I find the phonetic tags much easier to use and keep track of than a seperate number count. Entuda tells me the count is negative 2 and 4 aces have been played. I just compare it to the discard tray the index and make my decision. I really like the Uston APC and Ace side count. It has both power and flexiblity.

15 secs isn't necessary, 20-25 will suffice *NM*
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 09-Apr-2003 00:01:21 (#3705)

Re: 15 secs isn't necessary, 20-25 will suffice
Posted by Learning to count on 09-Apr-2003 06:11:26 (#3709)

Pardon my disagreement IMHO 15 seconds and under are important for mastering the game. WIth speed you must have accuracy. THis level of card recognition adds to the overall strength of a players ability to count convert to TC and play the indices. Speed will also enable you to wong with just a glance. Slow abilies will cause you to start looking at very card. Thus is a tell for the PC's. Speed is the third important AP tool. The first is a perfect knowledge and ability to use Basic strategy. The second is being able bet within you BR parameters. Third is of course being able to count and play as if your not counting. Just my oppinion. LTC

no disagreement...well kinda ;-)
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 09-Apr-2003 07:07:35 (#3710)

"Pardon my disagreement IMHO 15 seconds and under are important for mastering the game. WIth speed you must have accuracy."

I would have to agree for the most part, but for Hinoon, a novice, that figure may be discouraging. Its been recommended by almost every author and/or player I've ever heard of that 20-25 seconds will be sufficient for casino play *almost* always.

As for mastering the game, that's kinda tough to quantify. If one truly wanted to "master the game" I propose he would have to be utilizing a modern multi-parameter system, such as T-H Champion or perhaps the Bishop's recently proposed "Headache Count", with extreme proficiency, yet at a speed that wins at a higher rate than even the fastest user of a level II or level I w/ Ace sidecount system under all conditions. To expect to play (or count a deck down) _as fast_ is just not humanly feasible. But I guess I'm nitpicking here. ;-)

ANS

Re: no disagreement...well kinda ;-)
Posted by Learning to count on 09-Apr-2003 09:12:11 (#3711)

Your right mastery of the game probably is Akin to infinity. And excuse me about the minus 15 second rule. From My associations with many counters I have gathered that speed and accuracy were paramount to sucess. I tend to be anal about my skills and I practice BS,indices, card recognition and verite an average an hour a day. When I play I play hard. I really wong a lot and i have seen other wongers who are not able to quickly get the count. After they were able to get thier speed up then the walk and glance technique was easy. I tell every newby that speed takes time and practice. That is the foundation to AP. Practice. Thanks for your insight I have learned a lot. LTC

no need to excuse...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 09-Apr-2003 09:39:31 (#3714)

...I think that many probably underestimate the importance of speed of play.

ANS

20 seconds is NOT slow! *NM*
Posted by T-Hopper on 09-Apr-2003 18:52:55 (#3725)

Re: Plus, minus and all that jazz.
Posted by The Mayor on 08-Apr-2003 14:33:57 (#3696)

When I started, having a bit too much to say in my head with "negative 6", I would say "tif 6". That speeded it up quite a bit. I also tried colors, and different languages to help recall which was which.

Now it is so second nature to recall positve or negative, that I count both as positive values. That is when I am at -6 I say "6" and just somehow know it is negative. Weird.

The value of practice cannot be overstated.

--Mayor

Re: Plus, minus and all that jazz.
Posted by Casual Counter on 08-Apr-2003 17:39:16 (#3699)

HiNoon,

As a fellow newb, I'm acutely aware of the issue. I agree with our superiors above that practice is the key to minimizing all errors.

Most of the time I don't need to attempt to keep track of the count between hands. It depends on my mental state while playing. If I'm not mentally up to full speed, I may need to start physically logging it, or if I'm stuck at a 6 Decker with a full table, lots of cards out and slow play (long interval between the end of each hand with lots of counting to do in between).

There are plenty of simple, subtle ways to keep a physical reminder of the count. As long as you use a body part that is not in view of the eye; then you don't have to worry about surveillance. I won't detail any of my own tricks here, so as not to tip off the trolls. But you're on the right track.

In the meantime, we can both keep practicing until we don't have to worry about it anymore.

P.S. I also modified my system for DD games by raising it to a point where I won't encounter negative numbers (or will have wonged out long before anyway).

Re: Plus, minus and all that jazz.
Posted by Hinoon on 08-Apr-2003 18:09:37 (#3700)

*sigh*

So, what you're all telling me is that there is indeed no rest for the wicked, no easy way out, no simple solution.

Fiiiine.

Yeah, it's funny because what Mayor describes, the innate knowledge of +/- and just logging the number, is something I can do when I'm JUST counting. I know where I am, and it's not a big deal to not have to repeat "negative 2, negative 4," etc. But as soon as I throw in needing to consider the cards against a dealer's card...that "zone" is gone, and I'm back to basics.

I DO say "negative 2" rather than shortening it. I might try N2 instead, but I think I'll end up reverting to the full word. My brain has never done well with that kind of short-cut.

OK, so, back to the grind. I'll tame this sucker yet.

Thanks for the replies!

Sometimes...
Posted by phantom007 on 09-Apr-2003 17:04:30 (#3724)

if you lose the "+/-" of the count, just seeing and/or recalling the previous bet level/"ramp" will tell you where you were at. If you were a "purist", you would not even play at neg. decks, which would eliminate a certain % of the confusion.

If you are like the rest, myself included, then tricks such as above may help. When you still draw a total blank, bet low and play Basic Strategy...this will minimize the harm...or take a bathroom break.

Hope this helps.

phantom007.

After true count conversion....
Posted by Yaada on 08-Apr-2003 15:42:24 (#3698)

After converting your running count to the true count in the Hi/Lo system, do continue counting cards by starting off with the true count or the original running count?

Thanks

Re: After true count conversion....
Posted by Running Count on 08-Apr-2003 18:49:27 (#3701)

You convert to TC for purposes of figuring out what to bet (and how to play your hand in some instances). You need to revert to the RC to add/subtract when new cards come out. Yes, that means doing the conversion at least once a hand.

Think about the math if you did it the other way. Not very pretty. If you don't know why the math works out this way, I'd say stick with KO until you do.

Good luck,

Casino Personnel
Posted by Sonny on 08-Apr-2003 20:54:46 (#3702)

From what I understand, there are usually several types of people you might find in the pit area (pit bosses, floormen, shift managers, etc.). Whenever I look into the pit I always see 2-3 people who all look like pit bosses to me. Sometimes they are behind a dealer watching a table, talking to a plyer, or standing in front of their little podium with their arm crossed. Most of the time they are just standing around.

My question is this: How do you tell who is doing what? What's the difference between a pit boss and a floorman? (It sounds like the beginning of a joke, doesn't it?). Should I even be worried if a shift manager is hanging around?

Just wondering...

-Sonny-

It would be great if...
Posted by The Mayor on 08-Apr-2003 23:17:26 (#3704)

It would be great if one of the lurking casino insiders here could post a response. Gentlemen?

Response from CCCafe
Posted by Sonny on 09-Apr-2003 10:38:32 (#3716)

Here's a response I got from the Card Counter's Cafe:

In general (very):
Pit Boss: Oversees the pit area,assures games run orderly, supervisors the
operation of the games, mediates disputes, supervisors open/close of tables.

Floor Person: Usually still a labor as opposed to mgmnt. employee who may
deal one day and oversee the table games the next. Doesn't do much more in
the management end of things.

Shift Managers are pretty much pit bosses(aka managers) with slot shift
managers a bit more burdened.

Director of Table Games is a bigger honcho than those listed above, but also
must answer to the Casino Manager. There are a few other lateral or so
positions like Hard Count Attendant, Credit Manager, Credit Clerk etc.

IMO A boxperson is the most likely to be a miserable SOB of them all!!

Re: Response from CCCafe
Posted by Learning to count on 09-Apr-2003 15:19:12 (#3722)

Wow and a short definition could be as follows: a constant pain in the ass paranoid schizo's who guard the greed of the casinos.

Social engineering
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 09-Apr-2003 01:43:23 (#3706)

I just came across a dealer who would sometimes cringe in a glaringly obvious way when she checked her hole card (if it was a ten), when a ten was her upcard. I also noticed that she would tend to do this when most of the players had bust hands(12-16), and were kindly vocal about their bad hands. It happened the first time very early in her shift. The next couple of times I kept a mental note that she had a ten in the hole and was %100 accurate. I left when the count tanked. Maybe I shouldn't have. I'm sure the proper processing of this kind of information is WAY more useful than counting alone.

In the case of a player-empathetic dealer like this, it may have been best to act disappointed about my hand and try to wring the "tell" out of her. But that wasn't where my head was at. I'm still no expert, I was concentrating on other things. This is only the second time in a few years that I've noticed an obvious "tell". I'm sure dealers like this don't typically last very long. For as often as this happens is it worth worrying about persuing as a point of advantage play? Is anyone else very conscientious of this stuff? I don't see very many posts on this topic. That is, Matters that are not clearly calculated, but are dependent on subjective confidence levels.

Consider a given player playing Hi-Lo I18 in shoe games. If he became good enough to accurately predict the hole card one in one hundred times without making any mistakes, how would this compare in value to learning more indecies or switching to a higher level count? What if he could predict one in fifty? One in twenty?

A while ago, the Mayor recommeded I buy the book "Beyond Counting" by James Grosjean. At the time, I figured a book with this title would be beyond the scope of what was my current level of study, so I didn't immediately take his advice. I needed to just get good at counting... I will order it soon. I imagine there are books on poker and body language that would be useful too. But, it would be interesting to hear how other players handle such situations. Stories are most welcome.

-Felix

unfortunately...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 09-Apr-2003 02:39:54 (#3707)

Tells from a dealer checking under an Ace are virtually worthless. Steve Forte is the hands down top authority on the subject and his book is certainly the ultimate source for what you speak of. In the meantime, you can check out his article at the Bish's site, found in the Library.

ANS

oops...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 09-Apr-2003 05:52:48 (#3708)

...you said when her upcard was a Ten, my mistake. Get the book ASAP!

ANS

Re: oops...
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 09-Apr-2003 09:35:58 (#3713)

Thanks for the title, I will add it to my reading list.

But this is only one dealer in one casino. Also, I believe this is an extreme and relatively rare case. I guess I'd like to examine the potential gains of these things in general. There is subjectivity here, I know. These things require interpretation. Reading a dealers gestures is a talent that some may have a hard time developing at all. However, some may become very proficient at it.

Look at it this way: Strategy variation makes about 90 percent of EV in a shoe game. Indecies make up the rest. I play Hi-Lo i18. Would it be more valuable to learn a boatload of indecies and gain an extra 10 percent of 10 percent of efficiency, or to have some useful knowledge about the hole card one in every 50(or whatever)hands?

-Felix

some figures (indices)...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 09-Apr-2003 10:56:31 (#3718)

According to Wong's figures from PBJ, a Hi-Lo player utilizing indices in the -1 to +6 range will achieve about a 13% higher ROI by stepping up to the full matrix, given his benchmark 5/6 conditions. It seems he doesn't seem to perceive this though as he downplays it to "only $1 per hour less than the win rates for the benchmark" for using only the 30-something indices. If you look at it that way, there's only about a 6.6% increase from using the full matrix, but factoring risk into the equation we see that the gain is indeed significant.

ANS

Re: Social engineering
Posted by The Mayor on 09-Apr-2003 09:30:09 (#3712)

If you have absolute knowledge of all the hole cards, and no heat whatsoever so that you can hit your 18 against the dealer's 20, then you get about a 13% edge. In practice, if you play a modified basic strategy that is "reasonable" you will get around a 10% edge. If you know 1/100 of the hole cards, this gives you a 1/100 * (10%) = .1% edge which is not any good at all. Decent hole-carders start at about 30-40% exposure. Note, you do NOT use counting or indices to vary your bet or play, just hole-card strategy. this has you flat betting significantly less than your max bet, since you will be making a small fortune regardless.

This is good stuff, not to be underestimated for its power.

--Mayor

slight disagreement...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 09-Apr-2003 09:57:40 (#3715)

"If you know 1/100 of the hole cards, this gives you a 1/100 * (10%) = .1% edge which is not any good at all."

If you look at it that way, and assume the typical 1% advantage attained by the cardcounter, this would be a 10% increase (to 1.1%). I think 10% is quite significant, and all you would have to do is memorize a basic strategy to attain it, given this scenario (knowing 1/100 of the hole cards).

ANS

agreement
Posted by The Mayor on 09-Apr-2003 10:45:49 (#3717)

I was doing a linear interpolation on a straight holecarder, which is a bit silly, but got some sort of point across (the point being that a 1/100 hole card is not that important -- decent rules and pen are much more important).

--Mayor

indeed *NM*
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 09-Apr-2003 10:58:34 (#3719)

Re: Social engineering
Posted by Cadillac on 09-Apr-2003 11:02:17 (#3720)

I'm a new player. One thing I believe I read in Blackjack for Blood was that when the dealer checks under a ten, if there is a hesitation and double-take, and then no blackjack, the hole card is likely to be a 4 b/c it looks like an ace in the mirror. In the short time i've been playing I have seen this happen several times.

Hi-Opt 2 training Qs
Posted by Running Count on 09-Apr-2003 11:10:36 (#3721)

Hey folks,

I've been toying with HiOpt2 for a little while, and I think I'm going to start using it for SD pretty soon. I know (obviously) the values of the various cards, and thanks to the Mayor's work I know the Ill-18 numbers. Question is: how do I figure out the true count w/ the Ace side count? And more importantly, if I'm spreading 1-5 on SD, at what TCs do I ramp up my bet?

I looked for books on the subject, and found only one that specifically mentioned HiOpt2. It is a 27 page (!) booklet by "Lance Humble and Julian Braun" offered for $40 (marked down from 200!). I'm not about to spend even $40 on this, since $40 is about my entire EV from 10 sessions (with my measly bankroll).

Any answers to my Qs or recommendations for inexpensive sources?

Cheers,

Re: Hi-Opt 2 training Qs
Posted by Sonny on 09-Apr-2003 16:55:54 (#3723)

I use the Hi-Opt II myself for all games I play. I love it.

To calculate the TC with ace side count using the standard "ace density" method (as Humble suggests), you add +2 to your running count for every extra ace still in the deck (or subtract -2 for every extra ace that has come out) before you convert to TC.

For example, if your RC is +2 and you know that 2 aces have come out in the first quarter-deck, you only have 2 aces left in the deck. You are 1 ace poor (average about 1 ace per quarter-deck). This is bad, so you subtract 2 from your RC to get 0. Now you convert the RC to TC. Now you can see that the +2 that you were excited about was only a neutral situation!

Make sure you use the TC WITHOUT ACE ADJUSTMENT FOR ALL PLAYING DECISIONS. Since the ace can function as either a high or low card (1 or 11), systems that are ace-neutral will have better playing efficiencies.

As far as betting decisions go, it depends what the house edge of the game is. Each TC point for Hi-Opt II is about a 0.5% increase in your edge. It the house edge is 0.6% (average shoe game), then a TC of +1 is still about a 0.1% edge for the casino. I would wait until a TC of +3 (+0.9 player edge) to raise my bet. On the other hand, if the house edge is around 0.17 (good rules for single deck) then you could raise you bet on about ANY + RUNNING COUNT!

The ace adjustment sounds a little annoying I know, but remember that you don't even need to calculate it for most betting decisions since they are already pretty negative that the adjustment would still leave them negative (or they are already positive and the aces just send it through the roof).

The thing I like about the side count is that when you're on the borderline for an index play, you can check the ace side count for a hint on what to do. Although Humble includes an Ace Multi-parameter table in "The World's Greatest Blackjack Book", I prefer not to memorize it but instead look at it and remember how the ace affects playing decisions. For example, if you're doubling down on a 10 vs. dealer 10 (after the dealer checks the hole card), if the count is at 5.5 (+6 is the index I think) and you know that there are two extra aces, you damn well ought to double.

I hope this helps.

-Sonny-

Re: Hi-Opt 2 training Qs
Posted by Running Count on 10-Apr-2003 00:20:47 (#3735)

Sonny (and anyone else who cares),

So it sounds like, for betting strategy, the TC value is about 1/2 of what it would be for HiLo. Thus if my betting schedule with HiLo and 1-5 spread was:

TC = 0 or less, bet = 1 unit
TC = 1, bet = 2 units
TC = 2, bet = 4 units
TC = 3 or more, bet = 5 units

With HiOpt2, calculating the TC with the Ace count as you suggest, my betting would be:

TC = 1 or less, bet = 1 unit
TC = 2-3, bet = 2 units
TC = 4-5, bet = 4 units
TC = 6 or more, bet = 5 units

This sound right?

As for calculating the TC with the aces, I think you mistyped. You said: "To calculate the TC with ace side count..., you add +2 to your running count for every extra ace still in the deck." I think you mean add +2 for every ace above what the normal density would be. Otherwise, you would start a SD with a +8 count. Your example seems to confirm this, but just wanted to make sure.

Cheers, and thanks. I owe you a beer.

Re: Hi-Opt 2 training Qs
Posted by Sonny on 10-Apr-2003 11:18:32 (#3742)

>You said: "To calculate the TC with ace side count..., you add +2 to your
>running count for every extra ace still in the deck." I think you mean add +2
>for every ace above what the normal density would be.

You're right. If there are 2 aces left in a half-deck, the adjustment would be zero since the density is normal. This is what I meant by "extra" aces, but my explanation was a little vague.

>So it sounds like, for betting strategy, the TC value is about 1/2 of what it
>would be for HiLo.

Your betting schedule should be roughtly the same as HiLo since both counts average a 0.5% advantage per TC point. HiLo has a slightly better betting efficiency because it is an ace-reckoned count, but with the side count of aces with Hi-Opt you get very close to the same results. That is the trade-off: Ace-reckoned counts are easier and have better betting efficiencies, but ace-neutral counts have better playing efficiencies. That is why we use an ace-neutral count for playing and an ace-adjusted count for betting. We get the best of both worlds!

Because of the side count, Hi-Opt II and HiLo will have about the same betting advantage, but Hi-Opt II will have a better playing advantage, which is just what you want for the single-deck action where you are.

Either betting schedule you mentioned would be fine, depending in the amount of risk you want to take. If you always bet 2 units on a +1 TC, you are putting more money on the table with only a 0.33% edge (for either count). This is fine since you will be averaging more action per hour, and therefore a higher EV, but the fluctuations will be larger. Since I usually play for fun and with a decent bankroll, I feel comfortable raising my bets at a +1, but anyone with limited funds might choose to be more conservative. It all depends on your personal degree of acceptable risk. The safest schedule would be to bet 1 until at TC<4, then 5-6 units at TC>4, but you wouldn't get away with it for long! The nice thing about low limits (like Baldini's and Silver Club) is that you can do this:

TC < 0, bet $3
TC = 0, bet = $5
TC = 1, bet = $10
TC = 2, bet = $20
TC = 3 or more, bet = $30 or more (I could often get 2x$20 or 2x$30)

The lower minimum increases you spread, reduces your risk, and doesn't effect your EV much since it's only in negative counts.

If you are thinking of switchig from HiLo, you should read the post by ANS called "21st Century Sidecounting..." in "The Best Posts" section. He talks about how to keep an ace side count with HiLo that you SUBTRACT from the RC to get the ace-adjusted playing decisions. Although I would recommend learning Hi-Opt II, you might consider HiLo with ace-adjustment as an alternative.

-Sonny-

P.S.-I can get free beer at casinos whenever I want. How 'bout you can owe me a burger?

Re: Hi-Opt 2 training Qs
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 11-Apr-2003 14:00:58 (#3765)

Aces and Faces Blackjack has the "U" version of the Hi Opt II in it, plus Hi Opt III, Zen III, Z3Maximum, and the GI version of High Low, all for the amazing price of $15US. Ace tracking, shuffle tracking, bonus hustling, team play, comps, just about everything. I even have ZG mentioned in the Thank You To: back of the book! sigh

I am also working on the "UM" and the "UMX" Hi Opt II and the High Low MAX systems.

Re: Hi-Opt 2 training Qs
Posted by Running Count on 11-Apr-2003 18:53:31 (#3769)

Sonny,

A burger it is. How about an "Awful Awful" at the Nugget (not to be confused with the far inferior JA's Nuggest in Sparks) in Downtown Reno? Nice pics from Reno on your site, by the way. It was cool that they let you take pictures inside the casino (I'm not a stalker -- I found your site from your LV trip report link).

Thanks for the info. Do you recommend buying the Humble book? I may pick up Robbie Mack's book, too (thanks, RM). By the end of the summer, I want to have nailed both HiOpt2 and the basics of shuffle tracking...

p.s. Shoot me an email if you plan to be in Reno sometime soon.

You people are using way too much cover
Posted by T-Hopper on 09-Apr-2003 19:31:47 (#3726)

According to the poll: 56% 0 backoffs; 16% 1-2 backoffs. Come on play more aggressively!

Re: You people are using way too much cover
Posted by Learning to count on 09-Apr-2003 20:52:12 (#3727)

You have a point T hopper. But then maybe we all have small BR"S and we cant bet big. I have noticed a high toleration to under black betting. Even 5 or six greens stacked gets a little look nothing more. So maybe we are all low rollers! Something to ponder I guess. LTC

Re: You people are using way too much cover
Posted by Sonny on 09-Apr-2003 21:28:52 (#3729)

If I can't get barred for a 1-40 spread at the Western, what else should I try? Of course, I think the fact that it was literally a $1-$40 spread may have helped.

Maybe I'll hit the Barbary Coast next. I'll tell 'em "T-Hopper sent me!"

-Sonny-

P.S.-I agree, save your camouflage for the war!

P.P.S.-Nice to see you again T-Hopper. I was just asking about you at the CCCafe. You've been busy working on your new systems, huh?

No Cover Here
Posted by SammyBoy on 10-Apr-2003 10:41:23 (#3741)

I've been playing a single deck game spreading 1 to 5, sometimes as high as 7 if I lose a max bet and the count is still high. No heat whatsoever. I too am a red chipper, but most of the games I play have a minimum above $5.

The idea is not to go to extremes
Posted by hammer on 10-Apr-2003 12:07:44 (#3743)

-that will only get the casinos to make their policies even
bolder,is that what we want.
If everyone went to extremes then the overall play/conditions would
be even worse.
Read burning the tables by one of the greatest Ian Anderson,who has never
got tossed once.

Ian Andersen has been barred many times *NM*
Posted by T-Hopper on 10-Apr-2003 17:52:07 (#3752)

Re: Ian Andersen has been barred many times
Posted by BlackJackHack on 11-Apr-2003 15:49:15 (#3767)

I think the reason that 56% have never been backed off is that most of them are red chip. You would have to work pretty hard at it to get backed off playing red. A player with profit potential of $15/hour simply is not worth paying much attention to.

As a green chip player, I would agree that if you NEVER get backed off, you are either (1) not playing aggressively enough, or (2) the house (correctly) thinks you're not a threat. You probably can play without heat at many Strip joints spreading 1-5 or 1-6 at green, but you make the REAL money on those 8x and 10x unit bets.

Re: reed chip barrings
Posted by T-Hopper on 11-Apr-2003 19:35:40 (#3775)

There are plenty of casinos in Vegas and especially in Reno that back off red chippers. In many cases, these are the same places where red chippers should be playing - not at a mega-deck grind joints like the MGM.

this is true...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 12-Apr-2003 01:12:15 (#3777)

Do a search of recent posts at many of the forums, there have been several reports of red chip barrings downtown and of course Reno recently. Now as for "reed" chips, I dunno, I never had the pleasure to play at that level. ;-)

ANS

I had the most barrings in that survey...
Posted by Alexander Mundy on 13-Apr-2003 00:28:17 (#3789)

50+ and that didn't even count being chased out of a joint by a 300 lb goon and the pit supervisor Friday night. Since thay never gat the chance to actually tell me...it doesn't count.

Strategy question.

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