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Threads 31 to 60

Better System
Posted by branmuffin on 24-Oct-2002 22:12:37 (#184)

Mayor and ZG:
You have dissuaded me from pursuing HOII and AOII as possible systems to improve on Hi-Lo.
If I plan to play mixed games in Biloxi..SD DD and 6D shoes should I just use HiLo w/full set of indicies.
Zen UBZ2 look decent,
Ideally I would like to learn a system that has no ace side-count.I would rather not have to do a TC conversion if possible but dont want to lose too much EV.I dont mind using a 2 level count but dont want to sidecount aces.
Balanced or unbalanced.
Any suggestions...should I just stick with Hi-Lo and learn fab18/full indicies??
I dont want to drop down to KO and lose more EV but 20%+EV gain on most advanced system(versus KO, hilo) is not reasonable for my lack of experience
All the gambling stories on here are great .
When I was a freshman at ArizonaState in 1983 i used to play in vegas alot..I meet I guy there who tried to recruit me to play on a holecard team.He got his ass kicked and that was the end of that.

Everyday this site looks better and better.
Thnx Lee

Re: Better System
Posted by The Mayor on 24-Oct-2002 23:14:01 (#185)

I would say Hi-Lo with I-18 and Fab-4, but, if you are playing a game with insurance, add a few more insurance indices, in partcular 14 vs. 9,T,A, and 13 V. T. Also if you have time, add 8 vs. 5/6 to your I-18. Those extra indices will give your game a real power boost.

Start with that, play it for a while, and then you will see if you want something more, but that is plenty powerful. And remember, decent/good penetration is worth a lot more than any system. Search out the good games, and walk away from the poor ones. Find good penetration (first), then on shoes look for games with surrender (second). Everything else follows.

Thanks for your nice words about this site. I wish I had some artistic skills, everything here is just my hacking it out, experimenting, and wishing for the grace of color combinations that don't hurt my eyes.

-Mayor

Re: Better System
Posted by branmuffin on 24-Oct-2002 23:56:53 (#188)

Cool.I think I'll do as you initially advised ..stay with HiLo and work on proficient use of indicies.
The book I first used to learn HiLo was Reveres Blackjack As a Business.
If I want to attempt to be a weebit ambitious and learn 50-100 indicies should I use Revere's indicies or something newer? Wong CV Simulations etc.
It seems Reveres books have gotten mixed reviews and i know they are dated ..

regards Lee

Hey Mayor...ever head up to Jalama? ..thats gotta be the most amazing drive from highway 1 to Jalama state Beach..absolutely beautiful.Lucky you ..great area to live in.

Re: Better System
Posted by The Mayor on 25-Oct-2002 00:53:32 (#190)

For good Hi-Lo indices, you can't do better than Wong's PBJ. I've posted a few on this site as well.

I have never been to Jalama? Where is that? Of course, I get to drive up HW 1 all the time. My favorite stop along the way is the giant Sea Lion refuge, right by Hearst's Castle.

Keep us up to date on your adventures.

--Mayor

Re: Better System
Posted by branmuffin on 25-Oct-2002 01:40:16 (#191)

Mayor:
JalamaBeach is a state park/beach popular with windsurfers and surfers just north of point conception..the demarcation of central/southern coastal california..The Park isnt much but the long ride out to the beach from 101 is spectacular ..rolling golden hills..amazing.It may not be your cup of tea but I have a real wanderlust in me and was amazed by it.

Paste this url for directions only 62 miles:

http://maps.yahoo.com/py/ddResults.py?Pyt=Tmap&tarname=&tardesc=&osd=&newname=&newdesc=&dsd=&newHash=&newTHash=&newErr=&newTErr=&newFL=Use+Address+Below&newaddr=&newcsz=Santa+Barbara%2CCA&newcountry=us&newTFL=Use+Address+Below&newtaddr=&newtcsz=Jalama%2CCA&newtcountry=us&Submit=Get+Directions

Lee

Re: Better System
Posted by CanKen on 25-Oct-2002 19:01:00 (#214)

Hi Mayor:

The answer to this may be obvious, but I am a little confused by your reply to "branmuffin". You suggest adding more insurance indices. Is this what you meant, or was it meant to read surrender indices?
That's an interesting thread for someone like me.
Thanks.

You are right
Posted by The Mayor on 26-Oct-2002 00:52:50 (#222)

No you are right, I mean "surrender" indices, apologies for the typo.

Re: Better System -UBZ and R7
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Oct-2002 02:18:47 (#192)

>>Ideally I would like to learn a system that has no ace side-count.I would rather not have to do a TC conversion if possible but dont want to lose too much EV.I dont mind using a 2 level count but dont want to sidecount aces.<<
-----------

I see the UBZ2 as being one of the finest choices available, and it fits the description of your preferrence - IMO pursuant to the poor Ace-sidecount methodology utilized by most practioners of AO2 and HO2 and the like, as previously recognized, UBZ will perform on par with the harder to employ Aceneutral variety level2, and with the added ease of no TCadjustment! You can also eventually add a TCadjustment "TUBZ2" and achieve a slight imporvement over even TC'd ZEN.

Another easier approach might be for you to switch to Red7 - eventually you can count all 7s +.5 and use an adjusted IRC/starting-deck - then finally add a TCadjustment and 50 or so i#, the end product being a hybred level2 TC'd UB'd system that will perform on par with ZEN and (for most) HO2. In other words, RED7 is the one system tag-set where you can advance from the simplest RC level1 to the hybred level2 "Halve7s" as I call it, without changing counts.

For what its worth, returning to the UBZ, GeoC the developer of that system actually plays his own light version of ZEN wherein 40 or so i# are radically rounded to gradients of 0-5-10 (like the Mayor's Halves, though still TC'd zg

Assorted BJ Questions
Posted by branmuffin on 25-Oct-2002 06:25:51 (#195)

thnx zg
I think I am going to go with HiLo full indicies ..at least 50-100
HiLo is second nature and I dont have a problem with TC conversion but it isnt easy ..the half decks slow me down .Is it possible to round off TC conversions w/HiLo full in 4D and 6D to full decks rather than half decks????

I looked at full indicies of HiLo ..there has gotta be 200 at least.I think i will try to filter out those that are only between TC= -10 and +10 .
One thing that strikes me when I study BJ further is the amazingly high variance.The bankroll requirements seem huge..It seems to me you need a minimum BR of at least 500 avg.bets to avoid ROR.(assuming 90-95% ofROR).
To make a decent hourly rate you gotta risk alot of cheese..This is unlike poker.There seems to be much higher risk in playing BJ professionally.

Hypothetically If I decide to play in games where on average I have a .50%-1.00% edge..good SD DD(rare to find good ones ..penetration is crap) and 6D games and moderate cover(1-4 bet spread in SD 1-6 DD and 1-12 in 6D) and I want to test a small BR of 5K-10K I guess this type of BR will yield very little in hourly earn.Is that right??Like a measly 5 bucks an hour

I am very conservative and know gambling for a living is possible despite what all the naysayers say.I did it for 4 years playin poker and I still play poker.
Bankroll is everything.. Units are everything ..and foremost EV is everything.You gotta have the best of it.But most important of all is grinding out an edge at limits where you are comfortable ..in other words ..being a pussy.That worked for me .No heroics .
Zg When you play bigbet BJ are you playing with the BR or are you hailmarrying it.
I assume not with your statistical bent.
All feedback is helpful.
I think i will attempt a test BR of 10K 1 unit equaling $10.00 average bet around $25.00 ...is that reasonable?

Re: Assorted BJ Questions
Posted by The Mayor on 25-Oct-2002 10:13:07 (#196)

>Is it possible to round off TC conversions w/HiLo full in 4D and 6D to full decks rather than half decks????

Sure, you don't have to do 1/2 decks at all to play a strong game, but towards the end of the shoe you might do a bit of it.

>I looked at full indicies of HiLo ..there has gotta be 200 at least.I think i will try to filter out those that are only between TC= -10 and +10 .

Remember, the negative indices are only used with a min bet out, so are not worth very much. It is MUCH better to learn the positive indices than the negative ones. A range like -3 to 20 will be much stronger for you.

>One thing that strikes me when I study BJ further is the amazingly high variance.The bankroll requirements seem huge..It seems to me you need a minimum BR of at least 500 avg.bets to avoid ROR.(assuming 90-95% ofROR).
To make a decent hourly rate you gotta risk alot of cheese..This is unlike poker.There seems to be much higher risk in playing BJ professionally.

Two words: variance sucks.

>Hypothetically If I decide to play in games where on average I have a .50%-1.00% edge..good SD DD(rare to find good ones ..penetration is crap) and 6D games and moderate cover(1-4 bet spread in SD 1-6 DD and 1-12 in 6D) and I want to test a small BR of 5K-10K I guess this type of BR will yield very little in hourly earn.Is that right??Like a measly 5 bucks an hour

With a 10K BR, and a reasonable Risk-of-ruin of about 5% you can easily earn $30 per hour. With a 5K BR and a low ROR of 1%, you are making minimum wage.

>I think i will attempt a test BR of 10K 1 unit equaling $10.00 average bet around $25.00 ...is that reasonable?

A 10K BR and a 2% ROR, roughly, your bets should go from $10 to 2x$75. Spreading to 2 hands is critically important. But, your bet range depends on the QUALITY of the games you find, the better the game, the larger your max bet.

--Mayor

Re: Assorted BJ Questions
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Oct-2002 14:37:50 (#202)

>> A 10K BR and a 2% ROR, roughly, your bets should go from $10 to 2x$75. Spreading to 2 hands is critically important. <<
--------------------

I agree with the spread BUT NOT with the "critical importance" of spreading to 2hands - the #hands played during +counts is a function of how many others are at the table, as well as other factors - the correct topBet could be 1X$100, 2X$75, or 3X$60, dependent on the other factors.

exampleA- heads-up/2D, the ideal topBet is 1X$100 except for the last round, which then could be the 2-3hand variety.

exampleB- wong shoe 3 other spots in play, the ideal topBet is 3x$60

etc. zg

Re: Assorted BJ Questions
Posted by The Mayor on 25-Oct-2002 14:53:56 (#205)

Spreading to two hands increases EV much more than it increases SD, and thus significantly increases your SCORE (see Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack, 2nd ED). In shoes, your score may go up by as much as 20% by spreading to 2 hands. In this case it is of fundamental importance to your long term EV to play 2 hands.

Spreading to multiple hands in pitch games is much more a function of the number of rounds, and penetration, wanting to encourage the dealer to get as deep into the deck as possible. Card eating also comes into play, increasing your HPR (hands per hour). The question of "to spread or not" is much more subtle in this case.

--Mayor

Re: Assorted BJ Questions
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Oct-2002 15:22:05 (#206)

Did BJA-2 negate the "#hands to play" chart/advice contained in BJA-1? zg

Re: Assorted BJ Questions
Posted by The Mayor on 25-Oct-2002 16:45:20 (#207)

I do not recall seeing this chart in BJA-2nd.

This comment (about mutliple hands in shoe games and the score) was based on work of MathProf at bj21.com in a series of articles called "Scoring the Shoe" which are now in the Green Chip archives at bj21.

Here is a very small tidbit from that post, where you are playing a full bet on 1 spot versus 70% on two spots, giving the SCORE when you Wong in.

Wong: Play 1 spot only 63
Wong: Play 2 spots only 88

He goes on to extensively analyze a number of other scenarios, all of which show the power of 2 hands in Shoes. I am sorry, but I cannot quote this further without the author's permission.

--Mayor

#hands to play?
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Oct-2002 17:14:28 (#208)

I think that the MP SCORING SHOE series, which may also be found at the CCCafe w/o the price of admission, assumed 2-3 other spots in play - the chart in BJA1 shows that, heads-up, for example, the EV is higher for 1-hand play, with 2 other spots in play the EV is higher for 3-hand play, etc.

Part of my camo is the oscillation between playing multi-hands in -counts w/ 1hand in +counts, and then 1hand in -counts and multi-hands in +counts - mixing it up as its called - BUT there is always an optimum #hands to play per round tied to the # of other spots occupied, %pene, and proximity to last-round.

complexity
Posted by The Mayor on 25-Oct-2002 17:24:51 (#209)

Yes, it is a complicated subject, and without going in to all the details here, I would like to ask you to donate the URL to those MathProf articles on CCC, so I can link directly to them from this site.

Thanks for your continuing contributions at a very high level.

--Mayor

why there is a disagreement
Posted by kansas on 25-Oct-2002 17:34:07 (#210)

The BJA optimal number of hands to play question is with other players at the table. How to optimize EV and improve your chances of getting the good cards when others are at the table.

I think the mayor's advice was more of a spread to multiple hands to reduce variance type approach, considering the original posters bankroll and wanting to play to a very low ROR.

Sometimes it might be wise to spread to multiple hands, and sacrifice some EV, to obtain lower variance (or eat cards in negative counts, or get deeper into a deck before a shuffle, etc.)

The BJA study was just considering number of rounds/EV/other players.

Re: why there is a disagreement
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Oct-2002 17:48:54 (#212)

YES, you've clarified the original intent of this thread... and I do use 2hand bets for variance reduction, similar to using pontoons to stabilize a boat. zg

Re: complexity MP's SHOE SCORING
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Oct-2002 17:56:54 (#213)

The subject post is found here -
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/blackjackcardcounterscafe/message/12278

Re: complexity MP's SHOE SCORING
Posted by branmuffin on 25-Oct-2002 22:06:03 (#217)

the art of muti-deck betsizing ..thnx guys for all the food for thought.

MP 'Scoring The Shoes'
Posted by V-man on 03-Nov-2002 17:36:54 (#477)

MP's Scoring The Shoes article is also available at bjmath.com under "What's new/year 2000"

Re: #hands to play?
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Oct-2002 19:59:40 (#215)

BJA2 Page 29 (how many top-bets)-
Alone, one hand
1-2 others, two hands
3-4 others, three hands

Re: Assorted BJ Questions
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Oct-2002 14:28:09 (#200)

**My responses are embedded -

I think I am going to go with HiLo full indicies ..at least 50-100
HiLo is second nature and I dont have a problem with TC conversion but it isnt easy ..the half decks slow me down .Is it possible to round off TC conversions w/HiLo full in 4D and 6D to full decks rather than half decks????

**Are you using a 1/2D or 1D TC calibration? Nevertheless, if TC isn't easy than discard it altogether and use R7 or UBZ.

I looked at full indicies of HiLo ..there has gotta be 200 at least.I think i will try to filter out those that are only between TC= -10 and +10 .

** -4 to +10 is more reasonable.

One thing that strikes me when I study BJ further is the amazingly high variance.The bankroll requirements seem huge..It seems to me you need a minimum BR of at least 500 avg.bets to avoid ROR.(assuming 90-95% ofROR).

** 500-1000 min-bets (units or 'u') is reasonably comfortable, depending on the game conditions and betting technique. Further, you don't need to have it "all at once" - it can be an "installment plan" if you will.

To make a decent hourly rate you gotta risk alot of cheese..This is unlike poker.There seems to be much higher risk in playing BJ professionally.

**On the contrary, the little bit that I know about poker suggests that BJ entails LESS RISK and LESS BR.

**More like $15-75/hr (100hands), but more analysis of the exact nature of each game is required to suggest an optimum approach for each.

When you play bigbet BJ are you playing with the BR or are you hailmarrying it.

**When I am in the higher stakes mode, its usually a reflection of a an interim "joint-bank"(JB) arrangement - typical JB arrangements involve 2-5 counters each holding $5-10k

I think i will attempt a test BR of 10K 1 unit equaling $10.00 average bet around $25.00 ...is that reasonable?

**Yes, with a top bet of $100 or 2x$75 or 3x$60 - your min bets would be -
1D $25 (good)
1D $15 (mediocre)
2D $10
6D $05 (play-all)
6D $10 (wong)

**As you can see, your topBet is consistent and your min bet is adjusted to create the req.spread. zg

Well Mayor
Posted by Biff on 25-Oct-2002 14:05:01 (#199)

I am again ready to hit the cassino after my extended string of losses. (see old messages) I have put togather my game plan which will require 15 hrs of play per week and will take me 33 weeks to acomplish. Goal is to build a bankroll of $ 30,000 which breaks down to playing 495 hours with an average hourly of approx. $ 60 per hour.
Wish me lock and will keep you updated.

Re: Well Mayor
Posted by The Mayor on 25-Oct-2002 14:35:12 (#201)

Please keep us posted from the trail, I am very interested in your experiences.

If you haven't read "Blackjack Autumn" you would enjoy it in preparation for what you are about to do.

Good luck!

-_Mayor

IF you plan to play LV...
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Oct-2002 14:39:39 (#203)

...you can immediately BOOST your EV 500%, ask me. zg

Re: IF you plan to play LV...
Posted by Biff on 26-Oct-2002 12:12:50 (#228)

At this time Vegas is not in my game plan. There are so many better games around if one is willing to take the time to investigate. Not that I am not interested in your info.

Have you played Mesquite in the last few months. CBJN gives some fairly good numbers for their SD game but am wondering if it is error?

Biff

Re: Well Mayor
Posted by branmuffin on 25-Oct-2002 22:23:30 (#218)

Hey Biff:
Just out of curiosity can you tell me more about your plan of attack?

Bankroll ,games to play,counting system used, bet speads and locale.
It sounds like you need a big BR to make 60 bucks an hour.Are you trying to double up on your current BR?
Good luck and keep everyone informed .The less experinced players on here...lol which only seem to be me want to here the gory details bad and good..
Heat ..huge sessions drawdowns , your mental framework etc.

I am right behind you with a smaller investigative BR of my own.I am going to hit Biloxi/Tunica in a month or so for 500 hours.

regards Lee

Re: Well Mayor
Posted by Biff on 26-Oct-2002 11:09:04 (#227)

Don't want to give out too much info at this point as will be playing in smaller casino areas.

As stated in past posts I play mainly SD games and plan to start out with red units, spreading 1 -5 and increase my unit size as bankroll increases. As unit size increases I will have to lower my spread as to eliminate heat etc. and also spread my action around. ( I use alot of cover from Ian Andersen's "Burning the Tables In Las Vegas", in my play)

A bit of background. I have been a counter since the early 80's and have used Canfield's Master System. This is a balanced count, two level and use side count of aces for betting.

I know that I will receive a lot of flack from math people as to my plan but is based on my past experience and results. My session or trip BR will be 40 plus max bets and this will be my quide to when I can increase my unit size. The final strategy will be playing black, 1-3 or 4 spread and reducing playing time to 10 hours per week.

Enough rambling for now and again I will keep you updated.
Biff

Maybe flawed gameplan...
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Oct-2002 12:48:35 (#230)

...because you will be too over-played and burned in the 1D games - 1D games are overrated anyway - and the games you propose will be too congested in any event, so here are some suggestions -

1. Don't start with 5u per'se - gage your min-bet according to the game you are playing (min-bet recomendations provided elsewhere) - you you can afford a trip-stake of $2000 then your minUnit can be $10 in any event.

2. Plan to play a range of games as you find them - 1D (no more than 1 other player/spot) - 2D (wong-out a lot, no more than 2 other players/spots) - 6&8D (wong-in only, no more than 3 others)

3. Plan to do a lot of wong-in/wong-out on the 2-8D games.

Thats for starters.

About Mesquite, it sucks, but a couplae of PRIMO 1-2D games may be found in Paraump, as well as Laughlin, LV, Reno, and the best 1Ds for green-chip+ play is Wendover NV, 100 miles from Salt Lake City.

Re: Maybe flawed gameplan...
Posted by Biff on 27-Oct-2002 07:01:06 (#260)

Thanks for the advise. My plans to start this week end got thumped as had a case of the flu.

I said I was starting with a red 1-5 spread. Meant would be 10 - 50.
biff

Re: Well Mayor NO COVER
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Oct-2002 14:03:44 (#232)

>> ( I use alot of cover from Ian Andersen's
"Burning the Tables In Las Vegas", in my play) <<
--------------------

IA's gambit creates a very poor DI and SCORE and is NOT for small stakes play in any event... IN FACT NO COVER is advised for the small stakes and I recommend that you play to a higher RoR UNTILL you can safely play greens, where the better conditions/less congestion provides higher quality EV and your then larger BR allows for safer RoR bet-sizing. zg

$60/hr safely on $2k BR? YES!...
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Oct-2002 13:55:55 (#231)

... but only in Vegas IF you know the secret. For ordinary counting I would hold at least $12k to make $60/hr if I wanted to sustain a RoR less than 5% (with no downsizing if the BR tanks). zg

Re: $60/hr safely on $2k BR? YES!...
Posted by branmuffin on 26-Oct-2002 17:44:23 (#238)

I am confused zg...are you saying $60 per hour is only possible in LV with "the secret" or $60 per hour is possible on a 12K BR w/Biffs gameplan or the amended gameplan you have suggested to Biff??
And what the hey is "the secret" ??? shuffle tracking????
This is the second time in 24 hours I have seen you reference LV as secretively much more profitable than other games ..Where does this huge gain in EV come from ??

$60+/hr w/$2k, low risk?
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Oct-2002 18:22:20 (#244)

The $60/hr w/$12k mod'd plan is viable.

The $60+/hr w/$2k mod'd plan is viable, with the "LV secret" and the secret is "couponomy" as suggested in Clarke Cant's marvelous treatise BJTherapy found here -

http://www.bjrnet.com/archive/BlackjackTherapy.htm

Specifically, though Cant doesn't identify the top available coupons that will make a punyBR perform like a "nitrous charged" hot-rod. Those coupons may be found here -

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com
http://www.casinoperks.com

I wouldn't think of playing LV on $5k or less w/o AT LEAST one of each of the above per day - EV for 6hrs play w/coups and $2k BR = $500, RoR = 5%, maybe?

Re: $60+/hr w/$2k, low risk?
Posted by branmuffin on 26-Oct-2002 18:36:35 (#245)

Ahso ..Yes I understand now..Thanks for the clarification and links.
Could this "couponomy" be used on a more than occasional basis if I had them..like weekly or daily? w/cover at various shifts on rotating schedule of participating casinos?

thnx zg

Sshhhhh!
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Oct-2002 19:02:44 (#247)

>> Could this "couponomy" be used on a more than occasional basis if I had them..like weekly or daily? w/cover at various shifts on rotating schedule of participating casinos? <<
----------------------------

Sshhhh! If any member of your couponomist-team should be barred or back-roomed, the CardCounter.com forum will disavow any knowledge of your actions! zg(I used 6 LVA books in 6 days last month)

Re: Sshhhhh!
Posted by branmuffin on 26-Oct-2002 19:07:49 (#248)

rofl you too funny

Re: $60/hr safely on $2k BR? YES!...
Posted by Biff on 27-Oct-2002 07:08:05 (#261)

The $60 per hour win rate is projected over the period of 495 hours and would be average. Will be times it will be less, smaller units at the start, and times it will be greater, larger units as bankroll grows.
biff

surrender/any strategies
Posted by lucky on 25-Oct-2002 20:55:01 (#216)

or simply go by the norm of
9,7,10,6vs 9,10,a:9,6,10,5 vs 10.

input by all please,Mayor I know you like playing where
surrender is available
to get an extra edge,its amazing how many serious players
do not .

Re: surrender/any strategies POSTED?
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Oct-2002 23:49:59 (#219)

Aren't the LS#s posted at this site for HiLo and Halves? zg

Re: surrender/any strategies POSTED? NO
Posted by zengrifter on 28-Oct-2002 01:12:48 (#293)

Need the LS#s here, Mr. Mayor zg

Historically, the world's first weable computer...
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Oct-2002 00:23:47 (#221)

... was invented by Thorp and Shannon, for beating roulette. I worked with Harry Fechter Ph.D. of the UNLV Physics Dept, breifly in '78, who already had beta'd a similar unit the size of a city-phonebook - it worked but to my knowledge was never successfully put into play. zg
---------------------------------------------------
From MIT Media Lab "Brief History of Wearables" -

1966 (C) Ed Thorp and Claude Shannon reveal their invention of the first wearable computer, used to predict roulette wheels [MIT] -
The system was a cigarette-pack sized analog computer with 4 push buttons. A data-taker would use the buttons to indicate the speed of the roulette wheel, and the computer would then send tones via radio to a bettor's hearing aid. Though the system was invented in 1961, it was first mentioned in E. Thorp, Beat the Dealer, revised ed. in 1966. The details of the system were later published in Review of the International Statistical Institute, V. 37:3, 1969. Thorp also disclosed a similar system for beating the Wheel of Fortune gambling game in LIFE Magazine, March 27, 1964, pp. 80-91.

Thorp's earliest work on the roulette computer preceeded his initial BJ work -
http://c2000.cc.gatech.edu/classes/cs8113c_99_spring/readings/thorp.pdf

Re: Historically, the world's first wearable compu
Posted by computerilliterate on 26-Oct-2002 08:49:34 (#224)

One of those casey computers would be nice if I had an extra 15 thousand dollars lying around, but I think its a felony to use one of those in a casino. right? Of course, if they never know....

On using electronic equipment
Posted by The Mayor on 26-Oct-2002 10:58:16 (#226)

The Casey Computer is old technology, expensive, and very difficult to learn to use.

My advice, don't even think of using such a device in states in which it is illegal (suprisingly, it is still legal in CA, but not for long). If you are going to use one, think low voltage, since many casinos electro-magentic wave detection abilities.

The modern way to use these "devices" is via a cell phone, to an outside partner. I wont say any more about this.

-Mayor

Re: Historically, the world's first wearable compu
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Oct-2002 12:30:53 (#229)

The Caseys and other BJ computers aren't very strong beyong cerebral counting, as Thorp even intimates in his roulette journal. zg

Honesty in BJ
Posted by ZOD on 26-Oct-2002 15:58:01 (#234)

I had a discussion the other evening with a counter friend and the subject turned to dealer mistakes in the player's favor. His contention was that the casinos try to screw us at every opportunity and if they make a mistake, we should take full advantage of it. I'm sure that is a popular sentiment, and I'll admit to keeping a few chips paid to me in error over the years, but a scene I witnessed a couple of years ago has stuck with me and I thought I might share it.

I was playing 6D heads up at TI when a pretty Asian girl sat down and began flat betting $5 hands. She continued for a couple of shoes, never raising her bet, until her red was gone. Then she pulled out a black chip and bet it. The dealer had a 10 up and she was dealt a 6 card 22 which the dealer miscounted as a 21. After turning over another 10 for a 20, he paid her $100 and scooped up the cards. She turned to me and said "Didn't I bust?" Not knowing how to respond, I said that I hadn't been paying that much attention. She then insisted that the dealer (over his objection) pull the discards and recheck her hand. With the floor looking on, a recount confirmed that she had busted and the dealer retrieved the casino's black chip as well as her own. The floor, dealer, and I must have had that "are you an idiot?" look on our faces and when she saw it, she shrugged her shoulders, simply said "karma" and walked away.

Now, I can't say whether this young lady actually believed in some form of karmic retribution or whether she was just plain honest. I can say that it has made me stop and think about greed vs. honesty and the direction of my own moral compass. As advantage players, we brag about how we use our brains and our mental discipline to tilt the odds in our favor. We condemn the casinos for calling us "cheaters." My question is: If we keep ill-gotten gains, aren't we actually cheating? Shouldn't we increase our bankrolls by our wits, and not by petty theft? Or should we cater to the greed and "take the money and run"? My friend and I would be interested in your comments.

Re: Honesty in BJ
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Oct-2002 16:21:39 (#236)

I saw a similar situation at FitzG's awhile back - two tourist gals sat down to my right and one ponies up a $100 bill whereupon the dealer proceeds to breakout $100 in reds for each of them - whereupon the firt gal looks at her friend and then the dealer and whines, "she didn't put up any money, why did she get chips!" I chuckled and said to the attendent PC "Do NOT rob a bank with this girl!" and then the whiner said to me sternly "we are only here to get lucky!" zg

Mixed sentiments
Posted by The Mayor on 26-Oct-2002 16:49:52 (#237)

If you read my essays, you will find that I advocate fair play. But, this has two contingencies:

1) You are not playing to win (you are a basic strategy player).

2) You will be returning to the same casino, so you want to establish a long term relationship for good comps.

On the other hand, when I play "for real" I do everything in my power to encourage dealer errors.

Here are examples of things I have actually done:

1) The 5+ card busts me at 22 and I pound the table and say "all right, 21!!!"

2) The dealer makes a difficult 5+ card 20/21 and I pound that table and say "yeah! bust!!"

3) The dealer and I have multi-card totals, and the dealer has beaten me, I cry out "push!" ant pull my money back. Of course, I expect to have the dealer correct me, but he doesn't always clearly recall my bet size.

4) I ask to surrender before the dealer checks for the ace.

5) I insure for more.

6) I double for more.

7 Any number of things when the dealer has a blackjack.

So you see, I am not that good of a Christian at the tables. As long as it is legal, though, I don't see a good reason not to do it to the casinos.

On the other hand, I would NEVER take an action that would harm another player.

Re: Mixed sentiments
Posted by branmuffin on 26-Oct-2002 17:55:03 (#239)

Mayor:
Wow those are all great moves ..and they are legal and most be profitable ocasionally and add to EV.
But do you make these plays in every applicable situation ??
If you did I think you would possibly attract heat from the pit which would nullify these plays..

I am guessing you use them sporadically?

Mixed "sporadically" = aggregate EV increase (NM)
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Oct-2002 18:11:33 (#242)

Re: Mixed sentiments
Posted by Pit Boss on 30-Oct-2002 15:29:03 (#353)

I am not so sure the is legal...

Re: Mixed ... HOW ABOUT...
Posted by zengrifter on 30-Oct-2002 15:47:58 (#356)

...THIS ONE? zg

HERE'S ONE (a 1-time per club/yr) = I'm at 3rd base, face-down pitch, I spread to 2hands but I'm only dealt 1hand by dealer-error - I push the cards apart WITHOUT FIRST LOOKING, 1card to a bet (I do this quickly while the dealer is occupied at 1st base, remember I haven't looked at them and I did have both bets out properly) In most clubs the PC will instruct the dealer to deal another card each and then give me the option to play or FREE SURRENDAR (ie, dead hand) each. This is a move that I learned from the several times that a dealer DID deal 1card per spot. zg

Re: Mixed sentiments
Posted by sighguy on 26-Oct-2002 20:38:10 (#249)

The dealer and I have multi-card totals, and the dealer has beaten me, I cry out "push!" ant pull my money back. Of course, I expect to have the dealer correct me, but he doesn't always clearly recall my bet size.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that would be knowingly pinching your bet - which is a crime. You'd probably get away with it once, but would be warned. If you did it again after being warned it was illegal, you could be snatched up for an appointment with a gaming agent. I know you've made a big deal about how counting isn't cheating ( and I don't think it is), but actions such as you've outlined is the reason "advantage" players are thought of as....well, name calling never accomplishes anything, does it? I will tell you now, I work in a casino (big surprise huh?) and over the years I have seen many instances wherein the CASINO failed to properly pay a patron. Each time I've seen it, I have made sure that the money was paid to the patron. It works both ways, I truly believe that. My karma is sailing along just fine..how 'bout yours?

Here's a better way -
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Oct-2002 21:27:42 (#250)

- You've got a maxBet out and catch a crappy pair (77v10, etc.) - call the PC over and ask "may I split?" - when he indicates the house's approval THEN grab the money and head out the door.

True story, Maxim April 1 1987, those fabulous 2D games, I catch a very odd-looking 5card 22 and proclaim "bingo!" and tuck the cards, the dealer whisks up my cards and pays me, and then a PC from three-tables down halts the play and spreads my cards revealing the correct total - with a sheepish smile I say "April Fools!" zg

Re: Mixed sentiments HERE'S ONE=
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Oct-2002 21:41:13 (#252)

Mayor didn't say that he would pinch the total... these are moves that can each be played at a different casino very infrequently - often times its enough to simply pat-motion a push even though your 4card 18 doesn't push the dealer's 2card 19.

So nice
Posted by The Mayor on 26-Oct-2002 23:31:00 (#256)

It is so very nice to hear from an insider on these boards.

I encourage you to contribute as often and in any situation you like.

I pull my moves whenever the "feeling" is right. But, I am strictly legal, I would never violate the law, in any case whatsoever. I pull every legal move in the book, as often as possible, to take as much money from you as I possibly can. But, it is all legal, you bet!

However, I have seen dealer systematically short change me, several times in a session, more times than I can count. These dealers are working for someone, either themselves, a cheating ring, or the house.

Do these dealers keep the extra chips for themselves? Why do they do it?

--Mayor

Re: Mixed sentiments
Posted by lifesabet on 27-Oct-2002 08:10:30 (#262)

Im just too disgusted to say what I really think about these types of tactics.
...but I sent the mayor my nasty little message via email. no hard feelings.

Lets see, BlackJack can be beat. Therefore, I want

o A regulatory agency to protect my rights, same as all other players
o The casinos to pay me when I win
o The casinos to pay for all my drinks and comps
o The casinos to be courteous to me even though I wong in and out at

every opportunity and demand the full betting range of the table,

(did I mention that I want that cut card as deep as possible?)
o No heat from the pit when I play with my brain, afterall the casino

is going to win in the end so why cant I have my fair shot too?

o And to top it off, I want to work against the casino, actively doing what

I can to increase the number of errors that the dealer makes in my favor,

and coincidentally in favor of the other squares at my table.

The casino is there because of square money. They would all love to play
fair and not have the head-aches of dealing with dihonest folks. They would
probably not care too much about card counters (however working in teams is
a whole different story and my opinion is that casinos should have the power
to discourage this if they are sharp enough to identify it). But then there are
the few dishonest folks which screw it up for all others. If you are an advantaged player and think you are winning the casinos money, well try asking yourself where the money came from. If you are working for yourself, thats fair, thats what you are supposed to be doing. If you are working with the casino because you want to be able to be paid, thats a great idea. If you are working for 'the players', then shouldnt you be standing outside with a picket sign saying 'dont go in there, you will lose all your money!'

If every single bj player visited this site, and knew what you knew, whether or not they cheat (ie: use the tactics you mentioned) then there would be no bj tables to play at. Luckily, not every player will go to the trouble to learn as much as you have. That means you will always have tables to play at, and most likely, average folks will still believe that bj is beatable and will continue to play. Life is not fair, and I guess everyone should try to get whatever edge they can get, so now you probably understand why heat is so very necessary. I guess cards really are war in disguise of a game.

-lifesabet

Dealer error THINKFAST!
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Oct-2002 18:09:32 (#241)

Dealer error THINKFAST!

My last trip provided a rash of dealer errors that were exploitable only by thinking fast - like the dealer hard 20 that was then hit with 2 Aces while I
stood on 99 with a maxBet - as the dealer called the PC over I yanked my 9s up and started scratching - had the PC seen my cards tucked he likely would NOT have called it a dead hand.

Same dealer/table w/ 2 maxBets out I was dealt 1 card to each, whereupon I found an 8 on one and a 10 on the other, dealer showing 10 - careful to keep them seperate the dealer called a floorgal who did not respond - dealer then attempted to push them together to make 1 hand whereupon I pushed them appart again (in a playful manner) and requested a PC, who upon arriving said "deal him 2 more cards." I now held 8-4 on the 1st hand and PC asks if I want to play it - "no" - 2nd hand is 10-10 - "yes" --keeping the cards
seperate was key.

At the Hshoe recently 2 ploppies invaded my heads-up game and somehow I was dealt 3 cards which I quickly glanced at 8-3-5 - I kicked back the 5 in front of my bet and when the dealer got to me he asked "whats this?" "I dunno." He quickly burned it stating that if he calls the suits over it will be a dead
round.

I had more of these incidents in 14 days of play then I can recall in any previous 200 days of play.

Be alert for dealer errors and THINKFAST! (like when the dealer fails to burn a card after shuffle, common at Barona, if you don't like your hand...) zg

Re: Dealer error THINKFAST!
Posted by phantom007 on 27-Oct-2002 01:12:49 (#257)

I have personally found that correcting dealer overpayments is appreciated by both the dealer and the Floor Personnel, and I have experience warm situations that suddently turned quite cool...i.e., watchful eyes turn into smiles, comps, and NO HEAT.

Re: Dealer error THINKFAST!
Posted by zengrifter on 27-Oct-2002 06:20:10 (#259)

Correcting dealer errors to the house's benefit IS a valid form of cover... as is NOT correcting dealr errors to your favor... the situation/enviroment will usually suggest the best tactic. zg

Re: Dealer error THINKFAST!
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Oct-2002 09:13:36 (#270)

Yes, that's true. But have you also noticed the opposite when you catch the dealer in a mistake? "Hey, that guy is watching too closely, we better keep an eye on him..."

I advocate correcting all dealer errors you see, as long as you are NOT playing at an advantage, and you are playing at a casino in which you are a regular.

I'll go a step further. If you live in an area of the country where there are a few local casinos that you hit all the time, then you want to be on the good side, they will learn your face soon enough. Cover is everything, and it will cost a bit. In this case, correcting SMALL dealer errors in your favor is the right way to go. Longevity is everything.

--Mayor

Re: Honesty in BJ
Posted by ZOD on 27-Oct-2002 10:21:44 (#278)

I figured that there would be differing opinions on this topic. But, I am a little suprised by the cavalier interpretations of cheating, especially after years of hearing counters complain about being regarded as cheaters by the casinos. I know the world isn't black and white and I know that human beings are wizards at rationalizing their own actions. I just wonder if the guy who knowingly accepts an incorrect dealer payout is the same guy who wouldn't return a lost wallet. Do we change our basic nature at the tables, or is it an indicator of who we really are?

In the casino world, I have a vested interest in being honest at the tables. I mostly play at local casinos where several dealers and floors know me by name. I agree with Phantom that casino goodwill gained by an honest approach far outweighs the extra money I could make by cheating. As the Mayor correctly pointed out, longevity is everything, especially in a case like mine. I can win without using "questionable methods". I try to play smart and take my wins a few chips at a time. For me, this approach works fine.

I know that everyone has their own agendas and circumstances and I am truly not trying to preach. I just wanted to toss out a little food for thought. Thanks for the responses. Best...
ZOD

Re: Honesty in BJ
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 27-Oct-2002 23:35:30 (#289)

The following incident happened to me quite a while ago.

The appropriate hand signal for surrender in one of the non-LV casinos I had visited is to hold your hand palm up, and draw your four fingers toward you a couple of times, in sort of a "come here"-type gesture. This was the case the first time I've ever encountered a surrender rule.

I visited Las Vegas for the first time shortly after this, and was playing in a game that offered surrender. I made my surrender gesture and said something like:

"Pretty crumby hand...surrender that".
The dealer hit the hand and I busted.
"Wait a minute, I just surrendered that hand!"
"This means hit". (giving my surrrender signal)
"But I said outloud I wanted to surrender"
"We have to go by hand signals so the camera can see"
I asked for the pitboss. When he came over I told him how I had learned a different signal, and how I said outloud I wanted to surrender... No good.
"Look, I just made a mistake", I said to the dealer. "I'm sure you heard me say... ".
At this point the pitboss started the authoritarian act.
"You hit the hand and that's the end of it".
And that was the end of it.

Was it my fault I didn't know the proper hand signal and inadvertently busted that hand? Yes it was. I screwed up. But, there is not one bit of doubt in my mind the dealer knew I made a mistake. He heard me ask for the surrender. I'm absolutely positive he knew.

The point being: There is no way a casino will give a player the benefit when he screws up. It's never going to happen. Therefore, it is important not to correct mistakes that occur in ones favor as a player. This isn't a question of anyone "screwing anyone at any opportunity". This, for me, has simply become a rule of fair play.

Re: Honesty in BJ
Posted by sighguy on 28-Oct-2002 00:19:50 (#290)

The point being: There is no way a casino will give a player the benefit when he screws up. It's never going to happen

Um, baloney Felix. You have one "bad" experience and it's now "no way a casino will.." situation? The fact of the matter is the PB had no concept of customer service - that being, give the player the benefit of the doubt, you'll have a customer for life.

But - you also have to be aware (please read Mayors tactics) that this is also a common, cheap shot. Push a little if you feel you're right - ask to speak to the PB's boss. That will (depending on the place) probably lead to a request for video review. Believe this - if there's a competent eye-guy (or gal, gotta be PC) they will check back a few hands to see if you made a different signal for a "hit" - if so, chances are (depending on the place) - you'll be given the benefit of the doubt and allowed to surrender.

Of course, this is totally based on my personal experience in the world of Casino Gaming.

Re: Honesty in BJ
Posted by The Mayor on 28-Oct-2002 09:46:49 (#296)

I have to agree with sighguy. It is my experience that the "keep the customer happy" rule is common at most casinos. Only a few, like the El Cortez, will go out of their way to screw you if they have the chance.

The following happened to me. I was counting a double deck game, the count was huge, I had a monster bet out and split and doubled. The table was full, and the dealer turns over a stiff. The count was so huge, I knew all the cards remaining were T. She ran out of cards and now she might actually make a hand when she shuffled the remainder (given all the T's on the table!).

The pit boss not only let me take my bet back, he comped me a dinner in the nicest restaurant in the house for their mistake.

--Mayor

Re: Honesty in BJ
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 28-Oct-2002 12:39:04 (#300)

OK, SighGuy. I may have been a bit overly-emphatic when I said it would never happen. But, the example I gave was just one of a few situations I had encountered. My rule to not correct dealer mistakes is based on my time at the tables too, so I'll have to stand by my position.

Mayor, I believe you're misunderstanding me. When a dealer deals past the end of the pack it is the mistake of the house, not the player. Yes, I've found the house (just about) always corrects themselves when a dealer goofs in favor of the casino.

Look at it this way:
1. I error in casinos favor --so-- I accept when casino errors in my favor
2. Casino errors in casinos favor --so-- casino usually makes good
3. I error in my favor -- This is as not likely to happen as the other scenarios. If I misplay a hand, chances are I'll lose because it's an incorrect play. Plus, I have encountered those relatively rare situations where the house did not compensate for it's own mistake. So, there is a bit of a balance here too.

The fairest thing to do is accept dealer mistakes as part of the game. And, accept when errors end up working against you with no hard feelings.

Re: Honesty in BJ
Posted by The Mayor on 28-Oct-2002 18:31:05 (#314)

Point made. I did not read what you were saying correctly.

At the El Cortez, if you make an honest mistake, they will eat you up. Likewise at the Golden Spike, the Western, the Barbary Coast, the Frontier, and a few other shops.

At just about every other place, especially the nicer strip joints, I always get the benefit of the doubt from the floor. They have too much at stake to mistreat me, or so they think 8-).

Their must be a formula that equates the last time the carpet was shampooed with the quality of the customer service in gaming disputes.

--Mayor

Effect on other players.
Posted by Coug Fan on 01-Nov-2002 17:45:16 (#448)

Here is a recent situation. 3 players at a $1 minimum player. I had 2 hands of $10, Player B has 1 hand of $1, and Player C has two hands of $25. Player B and I both are dealt stiffs and stand. Player C splits and doubles like crazy on both hands until he has $150 on the table (and has to go into his pocket). Dealer turns over a low card to go with her low up card, then hits to a 6 card 21. Dealer thinks she has 16 with 5 cards (really has 15). When she flips the final 6, she announces "One too many" and starts paying all the hands. Player B ($1 better) speaks up and says "Wait, you have a 21". This really happened.

Given the significantly different amounts of money at stake, I believe that it was up to Player C to decide whether he should call out the error, and that Player B was effectively butting in where he did not belong.

I couldn't resist splitting tens the next time Plaer B had his "big" bet out ($5). When he complained, I told him that he could complain after I did it 60 more times and cost him the same $300 that he had cost Player C. For some reason, he left after that hand.

Another board is open here for non-BJ
Posted by The Mayor on 26-Oct-2002 15:58:28 (#235)

I have opened another board on which all these interesting discussions about our favorite movies, conspiracy theories, etc., can take place.

I encourage you, if you want to discuss non-blackjack topics, to use the link

www.cardcounter.com/nonBJ.pl

to post your thoughts. Let's keep this page on the topic of advantage blackjack.

Thanks for your continuing contributions,

--Mayor

Blackjack Espionage
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Oct-2002 17:56:56 (#240)

From: "zengrifter" <zengrifter@y...>
Date: Fri Aug 9, 2002 11:26 am
Subject: Blackjack Espionage

Blackjack Espionage

"I am not what I am" - Iago, Othello

Left alone, professional card-counters can grind out significant
profits in the long-term. Unfortunately, the casinos fear and take
measures to prevent card-counting. If, anywhere in the world, you are
suspected of card-counting, your play will be analyzed by invisible
surveillance operatives (the eye-in-the-sky). If their suspicions are
confirmed, you will be:

- Politely welcomed to play any game except blackjack.
- Given a verbal warning.
- Given a written warning and formally barred, being given notice
that a return to the casino will result in your arrest for trespass.
- Subjected to any of an array of countermeasures, such as
increasing the number of cards cut out of play or restricting your
bet size.

How much of a problem this is depends greatly on the individual. For
the full-time player who is always travelling, there is always the
next casino. A barring from one is not of great significance, though
he must be careful not to get himself on a blacklist.

For the casual player, who may be tied down to a full-time job and
patronizes only a few local casinos, the problem is more serious.

Most modern blackjack literature overemphasizes the problem of
barring. Great importance is based on the establishment of an "act."
This requires the card-counter to assume a persona that would not
normally be associated with the obsessive and intelligent
characteristics of the card-counter. This, of course, will not fool
anybody who is familiar with card-counting and is analyzing the
counter's play. The act is designed to prevent this from ever
happening. In general, this will only happen if the pit boss becomes
suspicious of an individual's play, and requests confirmation that
this is the case. A pit boss is naturally going to pay more attention
to a middle-aged professorial type than a loudmouthed tourist, or a
rich playboy, for example. Acts are fun. They allow you to play
different characters and revel in your own deception, and they can be
successful in throwing the pit off your trail.

If you adopt an "act," you must not be half-hearted about it. You
must be 100% committed to the character you have created. Often high-
stakes players become enamoured with the possibilities inherent in
disguises; some even employ special effects whizzes to kit them out!
In truth, most of a successful act can be accomplished by adopting
subtleties of movement, mannerism and speech. You must become the
character you are playing. It is not enough to put on an accent. That
is not convincing. Good actors, both in the casinos and on the stage,
do not act from the neck upwards. Create your own character's
history, friends, occupation etc. You should never be asked a
question you do not have an answer for. Moreover, if you are not
wrapped up in the lifestyle of your character, your body language
will give you away in many small, unconscious signals. Other people
pick up on these signals without realizing it and they will become
suspicious without knowing why. Pay attention to details such as the
way you walk; these little details can give you away.

Another method of avoiding detection involves making cover plays,
i.e., a play not in accordance with the recommended actions of a card-
counting system. This may mean making incorrect
drawing/standing/splitting/doubling decisions, not raising your bet
when the count goes up and not lowering when it goes down, or betting
high off the top of the shoe. Be careful with deviations from your
system.

The reasons for being careful with your deviations is simple: your
edge is small, do not jeopardize it further. You will make incorrect
plays from time to time in any case. You cannot make playing errors
when you have large bets out, because the cost is too high--your
profit depends on these large bets. This is precisely when the pit
will be watching you closely.

My opinion concerning the necessity of cover is simple: while the
card-counter plays blackjack against the dealer, he plays poker
against the pit--that is, his play is geared towards the intelligence
of the pit. Against incompetent or disinterested casino personnel,
the counter plays tight, i.e., in accordance with the precise
recommendations of his system. Against personnel skilled in the art
of game protection he plays tight and loose, i.e., he mixes up his
play between correct and seemingly random play. He is always keeping
the pit guessing but plays close enough to the dictates of the system
to win consistently.

Note that the poker analogy extends to the importance of body
language. Game protection personnel are instructed to look for
giveaway mannerisms which mark out the professional card-counter,
much as expert poker players can deduce the strength of their
opponent's hand from subtleties of movement and behavior. Counters,
even ones who put on a fairly good "act," have certain unconscious
habits: they handle chips in a precise and skilled manner, they are
often over-friendly, they stare at the pit boss. The lessons are
clear: handle your chips in a clumsy and awkward manner. Do not
interact with casino staff unless you can do it in a natural manner.
By all means monitor the pit bosses behavior, but do it with your
peripheral vision.

In general, once the pit has identified you as a potential threat,
they will look through the surveillance tapes for any record of your
play they can find. These tapes are kept for a finite period; they
may be erased after a week. Your play will be thoroughly analyzed to
determine if you are counting. According to the former card-counter
catcher Max Rubin, who worked at the Mirage casino in Las Vegas, it
typically required a hundred hands to determine if a player was or
was not counting. Obviously, this would be higher or lower depending
on the correlation between the counter's play and perfect
mathematical application of the card-counting system. It is evident
that a player who travels from club to club, plays only forty minutes
at a time in each, and does not return for a week to the same shift
has a very good chance of falling through the system. Bryce Carlson,
author of Blackjack for Blood and one of the great Lawrence Revere's
most successful pupils, advises not returning to the same casino for
a period of three months!

Play All Multi-Deck Games
Posted by branmuffin on 26-Oct-2002 18:20:36 (#243)

Assuming usual 2D,4D,6D games(not 8D) is Play All fundamentaly flawed for investigative pre-professional Bankroll?

I understand exited strongly negative TC's in 6D shoes ?
But are you suggesting Wong only on 2D-6D games.
This seems undoable realistically..you'd be attracting to much heat and never getting any hours in play and worst of all you'd burn yourself out mentally with this cat and mouse routine.

Is it possible to play a solid 20-40 hours(more like 40 hours) a week as a pro?

If you only played hour and a half sessions at each casino for cover 5-6 times a day 5 days a week.. thats 25-30 sessions a week ...You need to play in a town with a dozen casino w/ playable games....The only place you could do it realistically is Las Vegas or you'd have to be a roadplayer constantly moving?/???

My methodology at gambling for a living has always been grinding away at it..is this doable ?

Re: Play All Multi-Deck Games ??
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Oct-2002 18:57:26 (#246)

**My responses are embedded -

Assuming usual 2D,4D,6D games(not 8D) is Play All fundamentaly flawed for investigative pre-professional Bankroll?

**Play all at 6-8Ds requires a 1-50 apread, whereas wonging same requires only 1-6 to acheive equivalent EV with less 'pit exposure' and less RoR.

I understand exited strongly negative TC's in 6D shoes ?

**NO, NOT "strongly negative" exit at -1 to -2 TC and go to a fresh shoe.

But are you suggesting Wong only on 2D-6D games.
This seems undoable realistically..you'd be attracting to much heat and never getting any hours in play and worst of all you'd burn yourself out mentally with this cat and mouse routine.

**On the 2D games, most of which are marginal at best, use reverse wonging frequently, ALSO sit out occaisional -counts - for example, if you are playing 1-6 spread BUT you bypass just 1 out of every 3 of the -counts/hands your effective spread is now 1-9.

Is it possible to play a solid 20-40 hours(more like 40 hours) a week as a pro?

**Absolutely, mobility and planning being key.

**Yes and yes.

My methodology at gambling for a living has always been grinding away at it..is this doable ?

**Use a higher RoR and less or NO cover at the smallerBR level (barring is less likely and replacement of a ruinedBR is easier)- get to a $25u BR as fast ASAP ($10k+), where the games are less congested and the comps more meaningful - then use more cover and lower RoR. zg

my take on your questions
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Oct-2002 12:46:26 (#281)

>Assuming usual 2D,4D,6D games(not 8D) is Play All fundamentaly flawed for investigative pre-professional Bankroll?

Play-all is the norm for 2D games. Don't even consider wonging them for other than your entertainment. For 6D-8D games, avoid play all if possible.

>I understand exited strongly negative TC's in 6D shoes ?

Exit even marginally negative shoes. There is great material about correct exit strategies in Blackjack Attack 2nd edition.

>This seems undoable realistically..you'd be attracting to much heat and never getting any hours in play and worst of all you'd burn yourself out mentally with this cat and mouse routine.

False, it is easy, and you are hardly noticed. I can wong for hours without getting a glance. Why? Small bet spread is the key! A couple of tips. It is ok to start a shoe and leave when the count tanks, as opposed to only playing shoes that you enter mid-way when the count exceeds a target value. Second, only wong at busy casinos during peak hours. You need lots of games, and you need to be able to blend into the crowd. Wonging at a casino with only 2 shoe games at 4AM will get you in big trouble (I speak from first hand experience).

>Is it possible to play a solid 20-40 hours(more like 40 hours) a week as a pro?

What do you count as time? If you factor in transportation time, then if I work from the moment I get up to the moment I go to sleep, MAYBE I can get 8 hours of play in for the day. If you want to "work" 40 hours a week, you may find that you are only playing/wonging 20 of those, and the other 20 are spent scouting/travelling/cashing out, etc.

>If you only played hour and a half sessions at each casino for cover 5-6 times a day 5 days a week.. thats 25-30 sessions a week ...You need to play in a town with a dozen casino w/ playable games....The only place you could do it realistically is Las Vegas or you'd have to be a roadplayer constantly moving?/???

Exactly.

>My methodology at gambling for a living has always been grinding away at it..is this doable ?

You will start out as a counter, but quickly you will find that there are many more ways of bringing in $$$ from casinos, and you will be doing a little of each of them. You will evolve into an advantage player, with many skills, one of which is counting. Get/read "Beyond Counting" by James Grosjean.

--Mayor

What I think
Posted by kansas on 28-Oct-2002 11:06:35 (#298)

>Assuming usual 2D,4D,6D games(not 8D) is Play All fundamentaly flawed for investigative pre-professional Bankroll?

6D-8D games, wonging is a must.
2D games, wong out on that last round or two before shuffle if count is negative.

>I understand exited strongly negative TC's in 6D shoes ?

Exit even marginally negative shoes. There is great material about correct exit strategies in Blackjack Attack 2nd edition.
(Listen to the Mayor!)

>This seems undoable realistically..you'd be attracting to much heat and never getting any hours in play and worst of all you'd burn yourself out mentally with this cat and mouse routine.

Sitting at a table for hours and hours, varying your bets with the count, attracts heat.
"never getting any hours in play"? Why do you want to play negative counts? Are you here to play or are you here to make money? Jumping in and out, from table to table, draws less heat, if you have the right act to look like some kind of hyper gambling idiot. Look at slot machine players. Some sit at the same machine for hours and hours, some jump around, up and down aisles, coin here, few coins there.
Table players are the same.

>Is it possible to play a solid 20-40 hours(more like 40 hours) a week as a pro?

Yes, time spent observing play is counted just like time spent actually playing.

True. You were expecting to make a living sitting at the local casino down the road? How long until the casino notices you are not on the official payroll?

>My methodology at gambling for a living has always been grinding away at it..is this doable ?

Maybe, but after grinding away at it long enough, you will figure out easier methods.

SCORE minimums
Posted by branmuffin on 26-Oct-2002 21:29:37 (#251)

Is there a minimum SCORE for all game conditions where you advise wonging to cut the mustard?
Poor/fair penetration normal rules in (SD) DD and 6D's.
I seem to come up w/SCORES of 13-20 in games we/ve discussed using CasinoVerite EV Calculator.

If you have an EV of +0.60%/0.80% in poor/fair penetration in 2D(1-6 spread) and 6D(1-12)..I am guessing at an average betsize of $20.00x 75 hands per hour equaling $1500 in action per hour thus >>$9-12 per hour.In 500 hours I should be able to make 5K doubling BR.
I guess I could try a 10k/15K BR w/$25 units but I dont want to risk more than a 5K BR for investigative purposes ..I am willing to grind out 5K BR at minimum wage then hopefully move up to 10k/15k BR.
This is being realistic with realistic crap game conditions

Why do you need to Wong??

Are these EV assumptions off the top ..spread around BJ literature unrealistic?

I understand your advice may be for the short BR on short hours..to limit SD and up EV .But if I play at 95%ROR 5K BR and stay with my units ($10)..very disciplined and play 500 hours..why would wonging be necessary??
Obviously I understand wonging lowers SD increases EV but I am interested in playing hours and PLAYALL(except for your recommended exit on TC=-2 or worse).
My goal is to take a 5K BR($10 units) to a 10K/15k BR($25units)??
Thnx for the help
Your expertise in this subject is obvious.I would guess you have spent thousands of hours thinking about BJ at your expert level.I hope you stay around .My guess is you have been blacklisted ..how do you manage to still play?
Thnx Lee

Re: SCORE **Responses -
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Oct-2002 22:12:12 (#254)

**Responses -

Is there a minimum SCORE for all game conditions where you advise wonging to cut the mustard? Poor/fair penetration normal rules in (SD) DD and 6D's.
I seem to come up w/SCORES of 13-20 in games we/ve discussed using CasinoVerite EV Calculator.

**The main reason for your LOW SCORES is your INSUFICIENT SPREADS

If you have an EV of +0.60%/0.80% in poor/fair penetration in 2D(1-6 spread)...

**Then you need to INCREASE SPREAD to 1-9 (or 2x6)

and 6D(1-12)...

**Increase spread to 1-2x12 (min) -OR- decrease spread to 1-8 AND WONG. Remember, the next best thing to wonging in is wonging OUT... and the ultimate is to wong in and out while staying at the same table.

I am guessing at an average betsize of $20.00x 75 hands per hour equaling $1500 in action per hour thus >>$9-12 per hour.In 500 hours I should be able to make 5K doubling BR.

**Multiple choice ques- You can increase that $/hr by - a)increasing your spread, b)decreasing your BR's contact w/-counts, c)increasing your playing speed and #hands per hour, d)increasing your i#

I guess I could try a 10k/15K BR w/$25 units but I dont want to risk more than a 5K BR for investigative purposes ..I am willing to grind out 5K BR at minimum wage then hopefully move up to 10k/15k BR.

**If you drill hard first and you KNOW that your game is solid, AND THE MONETARY IS IMPORTANT TO YOU (maybe its not), move to quarters whether solo or as a joint venture.

This is being realistic with realistic crap game conditions

**The only difference between crap games and choice, is that crap games require a bigger spread and a bigger BR to offset a bigger variance, the EV should still be the same acceptable minimum of say 60?

Are these EV assumptions off the top ..spread around BJ literature unrealistic?

**No, assuming accurate play.

**$10u w/$5k sounds right, still wong-out as often as possible and necessary, and use a bigger spread at 2D, for starters.

Obviously I understand wonging lowers SD increases EV but I am interested in playing hours and PLAYALL(except for your recommended exit on TC=-2 or worse).

**For std hiLo count the optimum shoe exit is more like -1.4 TC (approx)

My goal is to take a 5K BR($10 units) to a 10K/15k BR($25units)??
Thnx for the help

**Be aggressive and cunning, take no prisoners, and don't think that you can just sit down and play because they don't want to play with you! You are, as a counter, more like the pool-hustler who no one would play for money with if they knew.

My guess is you have been blacklisted ..how do you manage to still play?

**I don't take the barrings too seriously or personally, and its a much bigger sea now then 20yrs ago. zg

Re: SCORE **Responses -
Posted by branmuffin on 26-Oct-2002 22:30:53 (#255)

this thread and prior dozen are great stuff > I am printing all this info.in case a pacific tsunami hits santabarbara tommorrow and wipes out the server..
My guess is this experience you are kind enought to share is hard-earned.thanx for invaluable assistance..back to printing.
cheers Lee

Why Wong?
Posted by kansas on 28-Oct-2002 10:50:38 (#297)

EV maximation and lowering SD.

Yes, your EV figures are correct for play-all, but consider this:

How are you going to feel if you are 'unlucky' and wind up on the negative SD side of the curve? What if after your $5000 and 500 hours of play (500 hours of play is going to take you how many months?), you wind up a whole $1.92 ahead?

500 hrs for $1.92 is how much profit per hour?

Remember your EV numbers are 'in the long run', your mileage will vary.

By wonging, you reduce variance and increase EV, you are more likely to achieve a better profit number quicker.

Re: Why Wong?
Posted by branmuffin on 28-Oct-2002 17:03:30 (#306)

I plan to play 500 hours in 3 months..I may have to hit the road to spread my action round.
You are definetly right i understand what you are saying.
Not only are you right but I went back to bjstats bankroll calculator and did some double-checking:

To double a 5K BR to a 10K BR over 50,000(500 hours)hands ...to get to that 10K BR your initial 5K BR has ROR of 66%...1/3 of the time you bust out or you make a measly $10 per hour...this is assuming the sd and winrate per 100 hands are correct assumptions.

To have a ROR of 90% I need $7305 to get to that $10K...still a 1/10 chance of biting the big one.This would yield a whopping $5.39 per hour.

ROR of 95% requires a starting BK of $8140 to get to that $10K..a 1/20 chance which is more in my grinder/murphy's law mentality again a whopping $3.72 per hour.
These are worsecase scenarios but still puts things in the persrpective you refer to.
No wander bj experts say save a bigger a BR and then give it a shot..

I am going to do it this way because i have time to burn,plenty of real money in the bank and I need the experince most of all.
For a 50% ROR I only need a BR of$ 3855..more realistic and $12.29 per hour.PS if I really push myself i could play 60 hours a week with good cover...rest and exercice...thats only 2 months.
Damn those are crappy hourly averages.I need to build up BR legitimately thru play of the game and get up to 10k-15K/25K BR..to make decent horly rate.

I know that I am only approaching this from this one angle :ROR ...but thats the way I want to do it..I always plan for worstcase scenario when it comes to grinding out any game whether it be poker or bj.

Re: Why Wong?
Posted by Biff on 28-Oct-2002 18:07:12 (#311)

Looks like we are off to the same adventure, increasing our bankroll. Please keep me updated on your progress.
Good Luck

Low EV/Scores playable??
Posted by branmuffin on 26-Oct-2002 22:02:54 (#253)

Are low EV/SCORE scenarios off the top games worth playing with large BR/s?
Low EV I mean +0.10%/+0.40%
SCORES of 3-13

Is the SD just too overpowering and BR requirements too massive?

Re: Low EV/Scores playable??
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Oct-2002 12:38:27 (#280)

Do not play these games to win money. Play them to hone skills and practice new systems, or for comps.

They are reasonable games for some purposes, just not for the purpose of making money.

--Mayor

Reader of the pack
Posted by zengrifter on 27-Oct-2002 05:23:17 (#258)

Reader of the pack
Wednesday April 17, 2002
Guardian Unlimited
http://www.observer.co.uk/osm/story/0,6903,678182,00.html

How easy is it to win at blackjack? Dead easy, if you know how.
Sandra Newman was a key member of a team of grifters that flew round
the world, their suitcases stuffed with dollars, beating casinos at
their own game. This is her story

'Professional gambler's assistants wanted, preferably. female.
�120/week plus 5 per cent of net, international travel.'
It all started with an ad in Loot. I came across it during the lunch
hour at my dead-end temping job, and without a second thought, I'd
rung the number. A few minutes later I had been invited to an
interview in the bar of a Kensington hotel. The husky voice at the
end of the line told me I'd recognise him by his full-length, black
leather trenchcoat. Putting down the phone, I already felt myself
escaping from my mundane existence into the world of international
crime where I belonged.

complete story here
http://www.observer.co.uk/osm/story/0,6903,678182,00.html

Right and Wrong
Posted by lifesabet on 27-Oct-2002 08:32:00 (#263)

Hello all,

I just wanted to explain the differences between right and wrong.

When the dealer counts cards and uses preferential shuffling, THIS IS WRONG.
When the player counts cards and wongs in and out, THIS IS RIGHT.

When the dealer makes an error against the player, THIS IS WRONG.
When the dealer makes an error for the player, especially when the player

actively does something to provoke the error, THIS IS RIGHT.

When the dealer decides to limit betting variations, THIS IS WRONG.
When the player decides to use full range of bets, THIS IS RIGHT.

When the casinos share information about sharp players, THIS IS WRONG.
When sharp players get together and play in teams to increase their

advantages and deceive the casino, THIS IS RIGHT.

When the casino gives heat for a player who deserves special treatment, WRONG.
When the player deserving of special treatment demands that he/she is treated

just like each and every other 'square' in the joint, THIS IS RIGHT.

I think I understand the differences now.

Sarcastically yours,
-lifesabet

P.S. Not trying to get banned, just my 2 cents from another perspective

Re: Right and Wrong
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Oct-2002 08:53:34 (#265)

I love your post! Sarcasm and all 8-)

--Mayor

A few more...
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Oct-2002 09:36:44 (#272)

Casinos give out free alcohol to weaken the will of the players: THIS IS RIGHT
Counters refuse alcohol so they can keep focused on their objective: THIS IS WRONG

Casinos do not have a rest area away from gambling, every chair has a machine/table associated with it: THIS IS RIGHT
Counters are rested when they play and not compulsive: THIS IS WRONG

Casinos decorate the ceiling and floor so that the natural eyemovement is towads the games: THIS IS RIGHT
Counters decorate their bodies so that they will not be recognized: THIS IS WRONG

This is FUN

--Mayor

Re: A few more...
Posted by lifesabet on 27-Oct-2002 10:13:55 (#276)

Its 110 degrees outside in the shade, but inside the pit its so cold you
better get some alcohol in you if you dont want your teeth to chatter.
"Would you like me to make that a DOUBLE?"

The waitresses serving drinks are in thongs because they are comfortable and
because we know your wives and girlfriends like to see other pretty ladies serving and distracting you.

You cannot use credit to gamble, but the casino will be happy to process a
cash-advance on your credit card, and then of course, since you are holding
greenbacks, you are free to play, "Whats your game?"

You dont have to leave the action behind when you get hungry, the keno gals will be around soon, or "Can I get you a sandwich from the kitchen while you
continue playing?"

You can bang on the tables, be a loud mouth, and disrespect the dealers while your chips are in front of you. Best of all, when you have blown out, we will comp you a couple body guards to see you make it safely out the door.

Thanks for your patronage, please come back soon!
-lifesabet

ok, I see your point. all is fair.

Booklist for wannabe punk bjpro
Posted by branmuffin on 27-Oct-2002 08:44:06 (#264)

Here's a list of 11 BJbooks I just orderd from amazon ..all paperbacks.totaling 150 bucks...a modest investment.And those of you that stress out over investing $100-400 in your game ..piss off.
Any other advice on good books.
I already read Revere's and Thorp's book.
I also plan on purchasing Casino Verite.

1 "Blackjack Attack, 2e"
Don Schlesinger; Paperback; @ $19.95 each

2 "Blackjack Autumn: A True Tale of Life, Death, and Splitting Tens in Winnemucca"
Barry Meadow; Paperback; @ $10.47 each

3 "The World's Greatest Blackjack Book"
Lance Humble, Carl Cooper; Paperback; @ $10.36 each

4 "Basic Blackjack"
Stanford Wong; Paperback; @ $10.47 each

5 "Las Vegas Blackjack Diary"
Stuart Perry; Paperback; @ $19.95 each

6 "Turning the Tables on Las Vegas"
Ian Andersen, Ian Anderson; Paperback; @ $2.95 each

7 "Theory of Blackjack, 6th Edition"
Peter A. Griffin; Paperback; @ $9.42 each

8 "Burning The Tables in Las Vegas--Keys to Success in Blackjack and in Life"
Ian Andersen; Hardcover; @ $18.75 each

9 "Blackjack Secrets"
Stanford Wong (Preface); Paperback; @ $7.50 each

10 "Professional Blackjack"
Stanford Wong (Preface); Paperback; @ $12.00 each

11 "Blackjack For Blood: The Card-Counters' Bible, and Complete Winning Guide"
Bryce Carlson; Paperback; @ $13.92 each

Re: Booklist for wannabe punk bjpro
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Oct-2002 10:06:10 (#274)

A few comments on your choices:

>1 "Blackjack Attack, 2e"
Don Schlesinger; Paperback; @ $19.95 each

Great book, must have.

>2 "Blackjack Autumn: A True Tale of Life, Death, and Splitting Tens in Winnemucca"
Barry Meadow; Paperback; @ $10.47 each

A fun read, will do nothing to improve your game.

>3 "The World's Greatest Blackjack Book"
Lance Humble, Carl Cooper; Paperback; @ $10.36 each

Another must have/must read.

>5 "Las Vegas Blackjack Diary"
Stuart Perry; Paperback; @ $19.95 each

Worthless.

>7 "Theory of Blackjack, 6th Edition"
Peter A. Griffin; Paperback; @ $9.42 each

Unless you have a strong mathematics background, you will not be reading much of this book.

>8 "Burning The Tables in Las Vegas--Keys to Success in Blackjack and in Life"
Ian Andersen; Hardcover; @ $18.75 each

Incredible book.

>10 "Professional Blackjack"
Stanford Wong (Preface); Paperback; @ $12.00 each

Must have/must read.

You have done well, read the books in this order: 3 then 10 then 8. Throw in book 2 when you need a fun read. Finally, read book 1 twice.

--Mayor

Re: Booklist for wannabe punk bjpro
Posted by branmuffin on 27-Oct-2002 10:19:24 (#277)

Mayor:thnx for the feedback ... willdo.

Ahem and by the way what the heck is this ace-tracking all about?
Is it still possible with todays shuffling tactics?
Probably should be a new thread ..but I am completely cluless other than reading what zg just posted on the subject.

The quick and dirty on sequencing
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Oct-2002 10:35:21 (#279)

I have a shuffle applet on this site, set it to 6 decks, a watch where the aces go.

The theory is that if there is a sequence of cards, e.g. TJQKA that come out in one shoe, the the shuffle will put them in a sequence the next time they are dealt out. A bit of study and you can see a few standard sequences:

TxxJxxQxxKxxAxx

TxJxxQxxxKxxxxA

And so on.

You have to find a shuffle that is trackable, but once you have found one, watch out! The key is to have your guys all around the table, so they are all cooperating in steering the ace to the big player.

-Mayor

Re: Booklist for wannabe punk bjpro
Posted by V-man on 01-Nov-2002 10:59:53 (#436)

>5 "Las Vegas Blackjack Diary"
Stuart Perry; Paperback; @ $19.95 each

Worthless

I mildly disagree with the above quote. Stuart Perry is a very honest reflection of a BJ player. He doesn't have a lot to teach us but his honest report on his BJ sessions in LV teaches a lot. When I first started to count cards, gone through my first loosing streak, I read and re-read all my books, Stuart Perry book actually teaches me a lot at that time. Don's book is great. When you win a little, read BJA2. When you win a little more, read BJA2. When you start loosing a little, read BJA2 again, but when you start loosing a lot, read Stuart Perry.

Re: Booklist for wannabe punk bjpro
Posted by zengrifter on 27-Oct-2002 14:36:44 (#285)

BJA, Blackbelt in BJ, Uston on BJ.

Also, regarding CV, the drills are where its at - not playing BJ video game, HARD DRILLING, which is why I personally recommend NeUltraMC or SmartCards or even 678 (which also sims). SmartCards and BJRM combined are a good combo. If you have a PDA you can also consider the Deepnet products. zg

**rating(1-4)

1 "Blackjack Attack, 2e" (4)
Don Schlesinger; Paperback; @ $19.95 each

2 "Blackjack Autumn: A True Tale of Life, Death, and Splitting Tens in Winnemucca" (1)
Barry Meadow; Paperback; @ $10.47 each

3 "The World's Greatest Blackjack Book" (2)
Lance Humble, Carl Cooper; Paperback; @ $10.36 each

4 "Basic Blackjack" (2)
Stanford Wong; Paperback; @ $10.47 each

5 "Las Vegas Blackjack Diary" (1)
Stuart Perry; Paperback; @ $19.95 each

6 "Turning the Tables on Las Vegas" (3)
Ian Andersen, Ian Anderson; Paperback; @ $2.95 each

7 "Theory of Blackjack, 6th Edition" (2)
Peter A. Griffin; Paperback; @ $9.42 each

8 "Burning The Tables in Las Vegas--Keys to Success in Blackjack and in Life" (3)
Ian Andersen; Hardcover; @ $18.75 each

9 "Blackjack Secrets" (2)
Stanford Wong (Preface); Paperback; @ $7.50 each

10 "Professional Blackjack" (2)
Stanford Wong (Preface); Paperback; @ $12.00 each

11 "Blackjack For Blood: The Card-Counters' Bible, and Complete Winning Guide" (2)
Bryce Carlson; Paperback; @ $13.92 each

Re: Booklist for wannabe punk bjpro
Posted by kansas on 28-Oct-2002 13:33:59 (#301)

Read #9
Memorize #1 & #10.

Browse the rest when you have time.

Article about anti-cheating measures in casinos
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Oct-2002 09:04:31 (#268)

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2002/Oct-27-Sun-2002/business/19845202.html

Re: Article about anti-cheating measures in casino
Posted by zengrifter on 27-Oct-2002 17:11:11 (#287)

The FRS and the newer "nonobvious relationships assessment" (algorithm software) are what higher-stakes counters have to avoid, among other things. zg

Re: Article about anti-cheating -PS
Posted by zengrifter on 29-Oct-2002 00:12:03 (#318)

-PS, BOTH are easy. Is the non-obvious-relationships analysis covered in Mr. Cellini's new book? zg

LVHC*, any comments?
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Oct-2002 09:59:15 (#273)

With the interesting threads on morality, cheating, and the variety of tactics the advantage community takes, I would love to hear from the LVHC* group.

We have someone from the casino industry potsing here on behalf of casinos (lifesabet), and at least two others that I know of lurking. I can't/won't breach your trust, but there are some juicy things to say here that I hope you will say.

--Mayor

Re: LVHC*, any comments?
Posted by lifesabet on 27-Oct-2002 12:54:43 (#282)

Let me qualify that.

Actually, Im posting on behalf of my own opinions and nobody elses. If it
seems that Im biased toward the house, that is a correct assumption. My
opinions are based from my own experiences in the online gaming arena. My
blackjack knowledge is so limited that I am not be qualified to speak out,
and will avoid technical bj discussions as others can give much better
insight. I have never ever worked in a land based casino and I certainly am
not speaking on their behalf.

Please take my posts for what they are. They are an opinion of a single poster
who would have a professional agenda to protect the house. That being said,
I do think a little before I post. I try to give thoughts straight from my
heart, and I try to consider both sides of an argument.

...and sometimes Im even open enough to change my mind. (keyword: sometimes)

-lifesabet

Re: LVHC*, any comments?
Posted by zengrifter on 27-Oct-2002 13:30:42 (#283)

I assume that yourID is confidential, but can you tell us your position, or your experience, or whether you play at all yourself? Do you agree or disagree with the casinos' over-paranoia and profit-reducing excess shuffle? Anything? zg

Re: LVHC*, any comments?
Posted by lifesabet on 27-Oct-2002 16:28:20 (#286)

zg,

My work in the past has focused on systems programming. Always online, mostly sports, horses, and a taste of lottery. I tackled blackjack this year as a learning experience and to test a new platform. I thought blackjack was good because it is a skills game, and because the other products Ive seen were very poorly done, Im not even convinced they are blackjack.

If gambling is to wager at unfair odds, I think it is a poor long term financial decision, and an excellent career choice for those on the other side of the table. I gamble for entertainment. I dont chase because when I walk in my bills are paid, my savings is secure, my stomach is full, and Im just looking to have a good time and a bit of excitement, thats all.

My respect for sharps comes from my experience in sports where the book can make much more money if the sharps come in and correct the lines early. In a
casino if counters are a liability only, then I can understand the paranoia. On the other hand, if blackjack were not beatable it would not be as popular as it is today. As for the auto-shufflers, it must be a great asset to the casino in the short term. Take a busy floor, and eliminate the edge for card counters and you will get more profit. For the long haul (since I dont believe that shuffling every single hand is really blackjack, its no longer a beatable game) I would expect this to hurt casinos in the form of people not playing. In fact, I would expect no one who believes blackjack can be beaten to even consider playing at a table like that.

Its a tough line to walk. If the casinos are making more money throwing you out and they are swallowing their lumps from the bad publicity they get when you tell your friends, then it's probably not going to change. Id hope that offering a beatable game would attract more business.

The paranoid casinos certainly know more than I do when it comes to blackjack.
If this is their way of doing business and you still want a piece of them, then
under cover and out of the cross-hairs would be the way to operate.

Online is a different story. I think that a beatable game could be offered, and how beatable it is could be limited. A land based casino does not have the same options because players in general cannot be trusted to hold to a policy of limited action. The bottom line is, if the casinos arent making money at a certain game, then they are not going to offer it. If you are just getting a small piece of the pie, then Id imagine they would let it go for good PR until it got too big to ignore.

Blame the guys that wrote the books you read.
-lifesabet

Mayor.. kudos to you for being a professor that will hopefully spark the gaming interests of thousands of successful young professionals who may never master the game.... and know that everyone will be on guard when you walk into a casino coincidentally filled with college kids playing with big BRs.

Re: LVHC*, any comments?
Posted by zengrifter on 27-Oct-2002 17:15:03 (#288)

We want to put your e-casino sportsbook knowledge to our advantage understanding to beat e-casino sportsbooks, ok? zg

Re: LVHC*, any comments?
Posted by lifesabet on 28-Oct-2002 00:25:38 (#291)

ok. Ill do my best to answer any questions. Maybe a separate forum would be a better place for it. mayor?

-lifesabet

Re: LVHC*, any comments?
Posted by The Mayor on 28-Oct-2002 09:40:57 (#295)

Feel free to post here or in the Non-BJ on this thread.

--Mayor

Counting For GOD
Posted by zengrifter on 28-Oct-2002 01:17:49 (#294)

This was from earlier in the year, but I thought some of the members would enjoy it nonetheless. zg

-----------------

OBITUARIES 1-24-02
Rev. Joseph R. Fahey, 65; Donated
Blackjack Winnings to Jesuit Order

BOSTON -- The Rev. Joseph R. Fahey, a master fund-raiser who donated tens of thousands of dollars to his Jesuit order with the help of his card-counting skills, died Wednesday in a Boston hospital of an apparent heart attack. He
was 65.

Garbed in his single blue suit, Fahey played blackjack tables from Atlantic City to Las Vegas, in his words "all for the greater glory of God," until the casinos blacklisted him.

He was considered a mathematical genius and donated his winnings from gambling to the Society of Jesus to uphold his vow of poverty. "Many Jesuit missions owe a great debt to him and his abilities at the blackjack tables," said John Dunn, who worked for Fahey at Boston College High School.

As president of Boston College High from 1988 to
1998, Fahey boosted the school's endowment by 500%, financing an athletic center, library and computer laboratory.

Fahey received a doctorate in economics at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1967 and was ordained a priest in 1968. He taught economics at Holy Cross College in Worcester from 1968 to 1970, becoming dean of academics from 1971 to 1981.

He also taught economics at Boston College. On the last day of each semester, he treated students to a lesson on card counting and an explanation of how he beat the odds in blackjack.

The class was always well-attended.

e n d

Consolidation Betting Revealed
Posted by zengrifter on 28-Oct-2002 12:31:43 (#299)

Consolidation Betting Revealed

Circa'99 - This one is little known and stems from the theories of Mason Mamulth, 'BJEssays,'85 who is best known for poker and David Skalansky's partner.

It was first sim'd for me by GeoC who, in his own words said "at first I thought Grifter's idea was dumb." The sim-stats speak for themselves and GeoC named the scheme 'The Grifter's Gambit'

The Grifter's Gambit @ 2D

Typical Mirage 2-deck with 65 cards dealt, one player.
ZEN w/80 indices including split 10s.

Betting -
0/minus- 3 hand of 1 unit
TC 1,2 - 1 hand of 3 units
TC 3,4 - 1 hand of 5 units
TC 5+ - 1 hand of 7 units

Per 100 rounds, the sim showed -
a gain of 4.0u with a StDv of 49u.
DI 8.12 Score 62

RoRuin w/$50 units
25% $23K, 20% $27K, 10% $38K, 5% $50K, 1%
$77K.

For a typical 20 hour trip there is a 17% chance of
losing $12K

These numbers can be computed by using either JA's BJRM or Dunbar's Risk Manager. The sim was run on SBA 5.0.

I have applied the technique on and off in juicy DD games including Bellagio, Mirage, TxSta, IP and elsewhere with no heat. Irrespective of my great act, I think that the technique is pretty much off the counter-alert radar screen. I even allude to "my new system" while dealers and PCs alike grimace in disdain as I "chronically wreck the flow of cards after a favorable streak."

Recently I utilized it for hours on-end and repeatedly for several days at Bellagio, while listening to PC and dealer accounts of an on-going counter-purge, spreading
(alternating) oddly from 3x$50 to 1x$350.

I hesitate to include an estimate of just how many neg-decks I might abandon in an hour (the sim assumes NO exiting). I often appear to be closing a "big deal" and must run to the house phone or step back from the table frequently after an imaginary page or a pager/cell phone chirp (Icomplain excessively about the attorneys and associates needing me to hold their hand thru every detail!).

The Grifter's Gambit @ 1D

For a GOOD 1D there can be a virtual flat-bet-amount: -counts bet 3x1u and +counts bet 1x3u - this will yield a similar EV to a traditional 1-4 spread BUT w/higher variance.

Because the min-bet is 3x1u, the comps are much better, btw. zg

Re: Consolidation Betting Revealed
Posted by Lapper on 04-Dec-2002 17:45:23 (#1209)

The problem with this strategy is that most casinos put a restriction on betting more than one hand. For example, two hands you must double the minimum and three hands some places make you play 5 times the minimum. If you are a red chipper and your unit is $10 or $15, then your strategy is impossible to employ at these casinos.

Re: Consolidation Betting Revealed (An aside)
Posted by Poet on 28-Oct-2002 16:51:08 (#305)

You my friend are an incredible fountain of light (to mix metaphors). You have helped me reflect on Zen, karma, ethics, populism, and more - and that was just so far today.

Mayor, You are to be congratulated on cultivating such a vibrant Web site!

Re: Consolidation Betting Revealed (An aside)
Posted by branmuffin on 28-Oct-2002 17:09:38 (#307)

Have you checked out the Illuminati Conspiracy webpage zg referenced somewhere here.I spent 4 hours reading everything on there and that forced me to use encyclopedia.com where i was researching every damn cult, secret society and mystic organzition on the globe..from kaballah to shriners..
Hehe zg ..bro where do you get the time..you must be a voracious reader..

Lee

Re: Consolidation Betting Revealed (An aside)
Posted by Poet on 28-Oct-2002 17:19:04 (#308)

Yes, that's part of what I'm alluding to. And I've been reading ZG and the M's past posts and the discussions triggered - sparks!
Now to the matter at hand, this strategy is brilliant I think. I hope it does not become a player tell too soon.

Re: Consolidation Betting Revealed (An aside)
Posted by zengrifter on 28-Oct-2002 17:33:35 (#310)

>> this strategy is brilliant I think. I hope it does not become a player tell too soon. <<
------------------

I don't use it exlusively in a session - I use it as a part of the mix of gambits, some of which are covered in the 'Art of 1D' post elsewhere on this page. zg

Choosing a counting system for Single deck
Posted by aoko on 28-Oct-2002 14:12:36 (#302)

Couple of months back I started doing lot of research on net and read lot of books to pick a counting system for single deck. Since Playing strategy for single deck is important I chose to go with AO11 and bought "Balckjack for Blood" by Bryce carlson. Practised AO11 for a month with just Ill 18 indices before hitting casinos in Reno.

I am a red chipper with spreads of 1-3 or 1-4. I didn't do any Ace side counts
and I experienced I was bit slow in TC conversion for playing strategy.I was up 60 units after playing for 12 hours last weekend.

Recently I came across www.bjstats.com. Using their Blackjack Counting Results Calculator for EV and SCORE I stumbled upon this.

GAme conditions: Single deck, H17 DOA, Penetration 35/52,Spread 1-3

1)Hi-Low with Ill 18 -- EV:1.03% SCORE:60.30(for 10K bankroll I beleive)
2)KO preffered: EV:1.03% SCORE:61.58
3)AO11 with Ill 18 -- EV:1.02% SCORE:62.92
4)AO11 with full indices
with Ace side count -- EV:1.40% SCORE:112.92

Finally assume that I play for about 100 hours with a trip to Reno every month.
There is a good chance I can do (2) without any errors , (3) with some errors
and with (4) I don't think I can remember all the 180 odd indices and use them effectively in present casino conditions.

Since I am a red chipper extra gains in using (4) over (2) will be in cents.
My confusion led to the fact that every where I read KO is not good for single deck and either A011 or H011 are good for single/double decks. But It's damn difficult to chat with PC and dealer while playing with AO11 and I am pretty
confident I can do that with KO.

To the experts out there which one should I choose?
A011 which has better gains or KO which is easy to implement in casinos?

REgards,
AOKO

Re: Choosing a counting system for Single deck
Posted by kansas on 28-Oct-2002 15:54:15 (#303)

A011 which has better gains or KO which is easy to implement in casinos?

Well, since you admit you don't think you can memorize the 180+ indexes in order to get the better gains of AOII, then why not choose a counting system you can use.

You could get even greater gains, in theory, by memorizing every card played and making decisions based on the exact remaining composition of the deck, but you can't do that either, so why worry about it?

As you already know, using the AOII with I18 gains a few cents. So is it worth a couple of bucks to use a multi-level, true counted, side count required system as compared to a single-level, no true count, no side count system?

Consider also that making a wrong mistake at the wrong time with the more complicated system could negate the few cents in profit you supposedly gain.

Re: Choosing a counting system for Single deck
Posted by aoko on 28-Oct-2002 16:21:03 (#304)

Thanks for your response.

Lets us say I add AO11 indices over a period ot time. Is it still worth to go for it?

Re: Choosing a counting system for Single deck
Posted by zengrifter on 28-Oct-2002 17:26:15 (#309)

**My responses are embedded -

I chose to go with AO11 and bought "Balckjack for Blood" by Bryce carlson. Practised AO11 for a month with just Ill 18 indices before hitting casinos in Reno. I am a red chipper with spreads of 1-3 or 1-4. I didn't do any Ace side counts and I experienced I was bit slow in TC conversion for playing strategy.I was up 60 units after playing for 12 hours last weekend.

**That, as I'm fond of telling people at the table, is just to give you false confidence!

**You are doing fine BUT you really don't need that 'ferrari' for putting around town. Also, the Blood betting schemes for 1-8D are WHOLEY INSUFFICIENT.

GAme conditions: Single deck, H17 DOA, Penetration 35/52,Spread 1-3

1)Hi-Low with Ill 18 -- EV:1.03% SCORE:60.30(for 10K bankroll I beleive)
2)KO preffered: EV:1.03% SCORE:61.58
3)AO11 with Ill 18 -- EV:1.02% SCORE:62.92

**Illustrates my point.

4)AO11 with full indices
with Ace side count -- EV:1.40% SCORE:112.92

**You CANNOT achieve this without an ace-secondary-count, Blood doesn't cover this!

**KO full-preferred maybe your ticket... BUT, IF you are already comfortable w/AO2, you can SWAP the ace and 9 tag-values as shown below and be playing ZEN w/higher PE and BC than #3, you can even keep your current AO2 indices and add more.

tags shown 2-A

AO2: 1122210-1-20

ZEN: 11222100-2-1

To the experts out there which one should I choose?
A011 which has better gains or KO which is easy to implement in casinos?

**KO-full, or the ZEN conversion... and start using a bigger spread. zg

Re: Choosing a counting system for Single deck
Posted by aoko on 28-Oct-2002 18:54:40 (#315)

Thanks for your response zg.

>> My responses are embedded.

**That, as I'm fond of telling people at the table, is just to give you false confidence!

>>I know its just positive varience I had experienced. Its got nothing to do
with what count I am using.

**You are doing fine BUT you really don't need that 'ferrari' for putting around town. Also, the Blood betting schemes for 1-8D are WHOLEY INSUFFICIENT.

>>I am using betting spreads wrt to TC's rather than the one given in BJFB.

GAme conditions: Single deck, H17 DOA, Penetration 35/52,Spread 1-3

1)Hi-Low with Ill 18 -- EV:1.03% SCORE:60.30(for 10K bankroll I beleive)
2)KO preffered: EV:1.03% SCORE:61.58
3)AO11 with Ill 18 -- EV:1.02% SCORE:62.92

**Illustrates my point.

4)AO11 with full indices
with Ace side count -- EV:1.40% SCORE:112.92

**You CANNOT achieve this without an ace-secondary-count, Blood doesn't cover this!

>> I can add ACE side count later If I decide to stick with AO11???

tags shown 2-A

AO2: 1122210-1-20

ZEN: 11222100-2-1

>> I am comfortable with just counting AO11 but not with TC conversion and correlating it to indices. Diff between ZEN and AO11 is with Ace side count only other than that both are similar. If I have to choose between ZEN and AO11
I will stick with AO11 since I spent a month practising it.

To the experts out there which one should I choose?
A011 which has better gains or KO which is easy to implement in casinos?

**KO-full, or the ZEN conversion... and start using a bigger spread. zg

>> Since my bankroll is 2k I can't go beyond 1-3 or 1-4. What's up with
this KO bashing on some websites which is a bit of concern for me to choose KO.
It took about 1 month for me to count(Ao11) down single to get some reasonable speed but with KO it took about 30 mins. Finally how much time do I need at tables to get reasonable confidence and speed with AO11.

Thanks,
AOKO

Re: Choosing a counting system for Single deck
Posted by zengrifter on 28-Oct-2002 21:47:28 (#316)

Where are you playing?

Re: Choosing a counting system for Single deck
Posted by aoko on 29-Oct-2002 10:23:26 (#323)

Where are you playing?

Zg, I play in Reno. Atlantis,peppermill,Boom town and some other casinos in nearby Sparks.

I am slowly leaning towardS AO11. What the heck? If I have to go to KO for some reasons its peice of cake.

I need your advice regarding which indices are important.

Apart from Ill 18 I would like to rememeber all the positive indices
in the following order.

Hard standing
Hard doubling
Soft doubling
Pair splitting.

Any suggestions please let me know.

THanks,
AOKO

Re: Choosing a counting system for Single deck
Posted by lucky on 29-Oct-2002 10:42:03 (#324)

s.d NOT the same these days especially with the added negative rules.
Most pros avoiding sd for other quality games with stay 17,doa,
and double on two,and surrender.You will lack these all
these positive rules,and get serious heat.

Re: Choosing a counting system for Single deck
Posted by zengrifter on 29-Oct-2002 12:26:01 (#325)

Luck is correct, your myopism on high PE, and limited spreads is NOT entirely valid with today's conditions, including Reno's 1Ds. zg

Re: Choosing a counting system for Single deck
Posted by aoko on 29-Oct-2002 12:45:06 (#326)

zg, In Reno I don't think there are any great double deck or shoe games
that luck has mentioned. For me best bet for now is single deck, H17 DOA

-aoko

Re: Choosing a counting (longer)
Posted by zengrifter on 29-Oct-2002 13:08:14 (#327)

In Reno there are several good 1Ds, the ones you mentioned, BUT also the Sundowner w/D9 and push21, select D10 tables like HarrahsHL(*) - D10 1Ds require deeper pene and/or bigger spread but beatable. The SilverLegacy DOA 2Ds were great last time I looked, and I'd even play the D9 and D10 2Ds

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