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Threads 571 to 600

Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#4142)

Re: Endgame !
Posted by Sonny on 22-May-2003 00:06:05 (#4150)

I think the point we are trying to make is that there is no ONE "best system". The "best system" will be different for every player. Some people have trouble with the TC conversions so they use unbalanced counts. Other players have trouble with the Ace side counts so they use Ace-reckoned counts. Other people have trouble with level 3 or level 2 counts so they stick to level 1 systems. It all depends on your level of play. It doesn't matter what system you use if you are making mistakes or you have to concentrate so hard that the pit can spot you in a minute.

If you can handle a level 2 system with a side count, I would recommend the Hi-Opt II (it's what I use). If not, stick to Hi-Lo and maybe use an Ace side count once you get good enough. If you play mostly shoe games where an Ace side count is not practical, maybe go with Zen. It all depends on your ability and the games you will be focusing on.

-Sonny-

Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#4148)

Re: What about the Hi-opt III I saw on your profile ? Is it more powerfull than the II ?
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 22-May-2003 08:59:20 (#4151)

Get you in and out of the game more quickly, has a higher variance, and does win more money. There are ways of getting the same effect with the Hi Opt II without using the +3 indice on the 5 card.

aces and faces
Posted by mark on 13-Jan-2005 19:14:52 (#11762)

Has anyone read aces and faces? Is it worth reading?
How effective is this Hi-opt III?

I've read it.
Posted by Sonny on 14-Jan-2005 13:10:05 (#11771)

> Has anyone read aces and faces?

I got one of the first copies.

> Is it worth reading?

It is a decent book for beginners. The chapters are very short but there is a good amount of information in there. He touches briefly on Ace sequencing, memory techniques, and covers the basics of betting and playing. The last few chapters are mostly aimed at playing online, which seems to be a slowly dying game.

> How effective is this Hi-opt III?

It is not much more effective then the Hi-Opt II or Zen. I think it was more of an excercise for Rob when he was trying to create a new card counting system. It is slightly more powerful, but probably not worth the extra effort it requires. Still, he does a good job of showing how different count systems stack up.

-Sonny-

thanks for the info *NM*
Posted by mark on 14-Jan-2005 13:42:43 (#11773)

Link to John May's review *LINK*
Posted by Sonny on 14-Jan-2005 13:23:16 (#11772)

Here's a link if you haven't read it already.

-Sonny-

Re: Please explain for us all Rob! *NM*
Posted by Mister M on 24-May-2003 09:48:39 (#4157)

Re: Please explain for us all Rob!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 24-May-2003 10:22:35 (#4159)

Explain what? I don't want to take an hour and explain things you don't want to know about ;>

Re: Please explain for us all Rob!
Posted by Mister M on 24-May-2003 15:20:26 (#4165)

It was re : your post that mentioned the extra gain from the OPT II without counting the 5 as +3. Can you please explain the methods?

Thank you.

Re: Zen II,III and HI OPT III
Posted by Mister M on 24-May-2003 15:26:51 (#4166)

Is there a link giving more info on the above mentioned counts please.

Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#4152)

Re: Gain vs Standard deviation !
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 24-May-2003 10:05:43 (#4158)

No it isn't. The chat feature at the CCC is seldom used. We had one a while back and I actually got to use my microphone and listen to other chatters. Nothing compaired to the webcam thing we can now have.

Casey. Does it work? Am I being scammed?
Posted by Minnie the moocher on 23-May-2003 12:07:33 (#4153)

Several months ago I returned to New York from my wedding in Las Vegas. It was a nightmare(save for my marriage to my sweetheart). I got screwed at every turn.

I am a ploppy. I got my butt kicked in a scam-game they call 6-5 blackjack. The hotel was so unhelpful to me that many of my plans were ruined by the hotel desk managers and clerks. It was a miserable experience. Don't go to a Park Place Resort!

When I returned home, I picked up a book called "Bringin' down the house" and read it cover to cover in about 2 days. I am now a determined aspiring card counter. I am the good guy with the white-hat who has been besmearched an now wants blood. I will surgically bury these black-hatted casino lowlifes slowly and carefully,

I just ordered "Casino Verite", "Blackjack in the Zone", and also a casino surveillance book. I am quite serious about embarking on a career of card counting and I am several months into the "research phase".

I came across the website for the Casey Blackjack Computer. I am considering buying that too. Has anyone used the Casey? Does it work as advertised? Is it worth the money?

Regards,

Minnie the moocher

Re: Casey. Does it work? Am I being scammed?
Posted by wong out on 24-May-2003 07:33:23 (#4155)

I have never used any type of computer to play 21 but I recall the Casey Computer being described somewhere as viable (it may have been in a back issue of BJF). Thats not to say that the seller of the Casey Computer is legit. WRT to using a computer; it is illegal in most major US casino markets that I am aware of.

I would investigate the laws for use of a computer before playing anywhere and would never use in a foriegn/indian casino even if there was not a specific law prohibiting its use; I would be too concerned with an overzealous intrepretation of a broad statue against cheating - not to mention the time/effort to fight to stay out of the clinker - can you imagine the hassle you would go through if busted with a casey in Romania???

I would be interested in owning one (if not too expensive) as a collectable item on a piece of BJ history. I doubt that that they can be used legally in many places and would rather pursue more lucrative opportunites if I were to purse a life of crime.

wong out

Re: Casey. Does it work? Am I being scammed?
Posted by Cyrano on 24-May-2003 09:22:09 (#4156)

Yes, it works. No, it's not worth it. I had the opportunity to try the computer once before. A friend of mine was really interested in it so he decided to buy it since he had money to burn. I was curious so I watched him use it. It took two months to even figure out the machine. After you figure it out, you need to devise a plan for wearing it. The maker suggests platform shoes + these nylon straps that you wear around your legs. 1) it's suspicious to see anybody of normal height wearing platform shoes and 2) there's a noticeable bulge around your leg that's almost 2x the size of a pack of cards, and that's not even including the battery pack. 3) there's a slight buzzing sound each time it signals you 4) there is a very uncomfortable wire that goes from one shoe, up your crotch, down the other leg, to the computer. All in all, my friend abandoned the project and now keeps the computer as time and money wasted. If you have $3000 to spend, invest in a couple books then keep the rest for your bankroll.

Congrats on getting hitched! ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Mangement on 24-May-2003 10:49:34 (#4160)

BUT since you lost all that money to the greedy casinos why not get even! Join us! Make a profile and introduce your self and be accepted in a group known to give the casinos a run for the money!!!!!

Re: Casey. Does it work? Am I being scammed?
Posted by minnie the moocher on 24-May-2003 12:06:23 (#4163)

A profile? I don't think so.

Additionally, I won't be frequenting this site. Why, you ask? Here's a quote from D.V. Cellini, former surveillance expert for several major Las Vegas Casinos:

"The Internet is another major source of information for casino surveillance spies. If you're a frequent user of sites like bj21.com, advantageplayer.com, or the Card Counters'Cafe, you've been had! These sites have more casino surveillance and floor people on them than there are feds monitoring the Web sites that sell plans for homemade explosives."

In fact, all of us are probably marked already. I had the experience of viewing the computer screen that pops up when a "suit" types in a players name. (I was deep in the casino "dungeons") The secret codes, acronyms used to identify players, and the amount of information they have about you is endless. They know if you've been banned, who you came with, and how much you've been drinking. They can easily tap into your email, zero in on your computers ip address, and much more. They do it.

No offense Mayor, but I would not be surprised if the casinos PAY the operators of this site for their service. This way, counters think they've found friends but they've really found BIG BROTHER. This site is perfect bait. All the webmaster has to do is give casino spies a few simple codes and you have been made!

The eye in the sky is watching. Even here. ESPECIALLY HERE!

P.S. The Casey computer is obsolete. Casinos, it seems, have devices of their own. Devices which locate a specific signal emitting from the casino floor. In most states the crime is a felony and you will go to jail. Directly to jail.

Thanks for the congrats.

Minnie "the moocher"

You are a tool. Go do something useful.
Posted by Running Count on 24-May-2003 19:33:44 (#4168)

You are either a casino troll or a total tool. I don't care which. Almost everyone here posts with an anonymous name, and those who don't, like the Mayor, know they've been "made" anyway.

If you are a casino person, you aren't going to scare off those of us know are smart enough to share info and war stories on this and other sites. We know it gets monitored, but that's why we avoid specifics.

If you are serious about what you wrote, you need to do some research. First, if you really went out and bought all that software immediately, then you are a fool that deserves to be parted with your money. You would be months if not years away from finding that stuff useful. Then you try to tell people that the casinos can somehow sniff IP addresses and emails from this site? That's not only ludicruous from a technological point of view, but would open the casinos up to multi-million dollar tort claims. Not worth it, especially for those of us betting $25 or less a hand.

If a casino can figure out who I am from my handle on this site -- more power to them. It would be quite a feat. As for you, either back up your ridiculous claims or go home.

Running Count.

Re: You are a tool. Go do something useful.
Posted by Stephen Bauer on 08-Jun-2003 06:08:51 (#4242)

Dear Mayor,

The above post seems obvious flaming, perhaps you should list both sets of posting rules. The one for friends seems very different from the one for dissidents.

Stephen Bauer

Oh by the way....
Posted by Learning to count on 25-May-2003 11:32:44 (#4173)

Mr. Cellini has his own posting page on The Bishops web site "BJFONLINE.COM". I have partcipated on many a thread there. It is true Mr.Cellini does warn of the dreaded Casino Spy! He gives that advice on line as well. All I have to say to you MS Moocher is your allegations about this site are like your original post "mierda". Old English translation "shite". In fact your post reminds me of the same troll who visits us every couple of months and wants to cause mischief and mayhem! I recall last time the troll in question complained that the Mayor's criticism of Mind Play technology was of center. Dont bother us with your trivial issues. When you are ready to come out of the casino closet and learn an intellectual skill; to wit: Advantage Play. We will be here and we will still try to educate you. So if you are happy with your $5.95 an hour casino spying job and the free buffet every day so be it.

PS The casey computer inquirey was childish. every one here has above casino security intelligence. We prove it every time we play..."without using any technology"!

Re: Oh by the way....
Posted by Minnie the moocher on 25-May-2003 16:07:37 (#4175)

No need to get snippety fellas. We are all grown ups, aren't we? Besides, wasn't I trying to help? Remember that the casinos are the ones who take your grandmas retirement money, not me. They are the ones who parade around like the good guys promoting this new "family" element to Las Vegas.

Circus Circus for example has a bench area where parents can leave their children while they're off blowing thousands. How incredibly sick is that? No, the casinos are not the good guys, they're the scumbags. The very notion that I am one of them sickens me. It is laughable. Stupid really.

As I said before, a Park Place Casino ruined my ENTIRE WEDDING from day one of my 3 week wedding vacation. They screwed up every plan and every event. They made my fiance cry. They did this after I brought them 180 people from NYC, Michigan, Arizona, and a couple who came all the way from Asia. Now I'm gonna stomp them. I will learn slowly every method to extract money from a casino right from under their noses. They will only know me from myth and legend. I will be like Kaiser Soze'.

Say what you want about my post regarding internet spying and IP addresses. I know that it is entirely possible and I believe Mr. Cellini. I have a friend who runs a NYC lounge website. He is also a master hacker. I saw him get into a persons private email with remarkable ease. If he can do it, so can the casinos.

Guys, at least my post raised an interesting question. The heavy-handedness of your reaction may indicate that YOU, not me, is a casino flunky.

No, I'm not interested in causing chaos or trouble. I'm outta here.

Hope you still kick the casinos ass though. Good luck.

Adios Cucaracha! *NM*
Posted by Learning to count on 25-May-2003 19:40:39 (#4176)

Something is very very wrong here
Posted by CougFan on 29-May-2003 11:58:03 (#4194)

Minnie,

If I take you at face value, you are an extremely paranoid former ploppy and aspiring card counter. I understand your fears about technology tracking you, even if I don't think that those fears have any basis in reality. If you were right, the casino's could have easily tracked me down a long time ago and saved themselves alot of $$$.

However, you seem to have no problem posting intimate details about the approximate date of your wedding and the chain where it took place. If you really had that large of a wedding at that chain, then PPE has all the info they need to identify you.

Either that, or you are lying about your motives for wanting to learn how to count cards.

Good Call Amigos !
Posted by BradRod on 29-May-2003 07:37:10 (#4192)

I did not realize it at first either but this guy did sound like he might well have been a casino plant. His story about the 3 week wedding was very hollow especially when he told it the second time and did not strike me as motivation to "turning to a life of card counting" - LOL. Seems like a very perverse attitude for a budding advantage player to have. Also his claim to jump into the hi tech aspects of the art without any grounding in the basics seems intened to impress and gain acceptance

Seems like the plaid sport jacketed, penny loafer wearing plain clothes cop trying to fit in among jeans wearing , long haired peace children of a previous era..

Finding trools
Posted by Greasy John on 29-May-2003 15:30:04 (#4195)

But why give suspected trools advise on why they don't seem legit? Do we really want to give them free acting lessons?

point taken GJ
Posted by BradRod on 31-May-2003 15:11:20 (#4200)

I thought about that just as I was hitting the post message button. I'm not sure a troll can mask themselves that well. Even if they know what we may view as flaws in their story, they are only likely to overcompensate if they try it again. But, it is certainly more prudent to express skepticism without critical details.

All politics aside:
Posted by Sonny on 26-May-2003 01:05:36 (#4178)

I'm not going to get involved in the politics here. I'd hate to turn off someone this dedicated to learning blackjack, espcially at this site.

Long story short, give up your hopes and dreams in the Casey computer or any other Blackjack computer. The good ones are too difficult to be practical for casino use, and the simple ones (I saw one that was built into a keychain with only three buttons to operate it) are no more accurate than the counting systems you will learn from any good book. Not to mention, they are all illegal and you could get 10 years in prison and multiple fines for being caught with one.

If you are serious about beating the casinos at the table, you have every tool you need right inside your head. Learn the Basic Strategy, learn and PRACTICE a good counting system, learn about Wonging, learn about shuffle tracking, learn about bankroll requirements and bet sizing, Standard Deviation, Risk of Ruin, learn how to recognize (and sometimes create) good games. If you are playing for higher stakes (black action) then learn some camouflage and get a good act. You've got a long road ahead of you, but a potentioally profitable one.

READ, READ, READ!

PRACTICE, PRACTICE, PRACTICE!

-Sonny-

Query: Blackjack in Budapest and Krakow
Posted by Skug on 23-May-2003 15:28:05 (#4154)

For a week in August, I will be in Budapest, Hungary and Krakow, Poland. Does anyone know the playing conditions in either city?

Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#4167)

Re: Kelly Criterion
Posted by The Mayor on 24-May-2003 20:53:00 (#4169)

Theory vs. practice...

In practice I bet as much as I can get away with given the heat, the ever changing penetration, my bankroll on hand, risk tolerance, fatigue, etc...

Thanks for sharing your insights,

--Mayor

Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#4170)

Re: Wonging is really cool
Posted by The Mayor on 25-May-2003 12:19:19 (#4174)

I totally agree wtih you on Wonging... it is the way to go for so many reasons.

If you want, you can play in Las Vegas with an advantage over the house on every bet you make! Talk about turning the tables.

It reduces variance and increases EV (hence a huge effect on DI).

You can reduce your spread thereby flying under radar and making it tougher to be identified.

You can actually play more hands per hour with a positive EV.

And if you wong a LSR game, it's almost like having a day job.

--Mayor

Re: Wonging is really cool
Posted by wong out on 01-Jun-2003 08:22:05 (#4203)

Concur; wonging is where the bucks are. I tend to play mostly high limit tables which tend to be no mid shoe entry. As a result I have to often make do with the "wong out" approach. Works almost as well + I dont have to worry about ploppies stealing rounds during high counts.

wong out

Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#4171)

;rules
Posted by Bigtimegambler on 25-May-2003 23:54:12 (#4177)

Where can I find the rules for various casinos. I know that the rules vary from casint to casino. Is there a site where I can find this info? Thanks..........BTG

Re: ;rules
Posted by The Mayor on 26-May-2003 10:03:46 (#4180)

There are four sources I know of...

CBJN (Current Blackjack News) available from www.bj21.com

Trackjack available from www.advantageplayer.com

Scott Kister's old and outdated list, available here

Call the casino and ask

--Mayor

Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#4179)

Re: Rob... what is in your book ?
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 26-May-2003 21:44:52 (#4183)

Is there the complete Hi-Opt II system what is this "u" Hi-opt II thing ??

It's is there with 1 2 and 6 deck indices. The U is the Uston version. The MU and the XMU version are not included in the book. M=McGarvey and the X=multiplication. Unfinished works that I can't get any sims done for.

And is there the expected value at each count with the Hi-opt II with strategy variation ?

I don't get you here.....

I'm planning to buy the Hi-Opt II system, and if it is complete in your book, then, I will buy it!

Thank you for the information!

advice
Posted by k mcmi on 26-May-2003 17:41:15 (#4181)

I need advice on a hypothetical problem that I may or many not be having.
What if you have been backed off from a couple of casinos, and it seems like anytime you give your name or rating card to be rated, it pops up in some data base as "back this player off". Now, I suppose you could obtain a new player rateing card in a different name, but let's say that you may come up against cash reporting requirments. Now you have to show real I.D to continue playing. You think about getting a fake I.D but wonder if the casinos have the ability to match your fake I.D against a bonafide database of real I.Ds, and you don't wnat to get in trouble for some kind of felony for having a fake I.D. How might you disguise your true identity. You would not be doing this to decieve anybody except for casinos where you would like to play. Any comments are appreciated.
Sincerely,
K MCMI

Re: advice
Posted by The Mayor on 26-May-2003 20:57:16 (#4182)

Don't cash in your chips as the fake player ... if you just simply walk out with your chips in your pocket you can cash them in later in whatever way suits you -- a few at a time (so as to not have to show ID) -- or even have some friends cash them for you. Also, you can take a few low denomination chips to other casinos. Finally, hold on to the chips to play another day. They are money. Bring out some chips at the table and start using them.
Another possibility is rat-holing -- so they don't know.

--Mayor

Re: Advice
Posted by BradRod on 29-May-2003 00:46:14 (#4189)

I had a scary experience over the weekend at a casino that I have been playing at somewhat regularly over the last few months. I decided I was not going to use my card to "get rated" a. I got backed off recently - different casino but, made me decide that I wanted to start playing under a fake ID so I wanted to back off from using my real one at all games for a while. b. their comps suck anyway.

I was playing for a while and the pit person --who I did not remember seeing before -- kept asking me for my ID . I kept declining. After a while he thanked me for giving the card albeit to someone else. I had not done that. They had my correct info and what I had done buy in wise throughout the day at different pits.

I had not seen anyone that I recognized well enough to know my first AND last name , player card # or other specific identifying info about me without a card. Any ideas as to how that was done ? Face recognition, ??

Mayor -- what did you mean by rat holing ?

Been away from here too long.

BradRod

Rat holing
Posted by Cyrano on 29-May-2003 03:15:01 (#4190)

It means sneaking chips into your pockets when the PCs aren't looking. This way, they can't get an accurate guage of how much you've won. Though it's probably not as effective, you can rat hole when you're losing to make it seem like you've lost more than you really did.

Brad your shorthand is a little different from mine so must clarify: a. = and?? b. = because??

Re: Ratholing
Posted by BradRod on 29-May-2003 07:04:14 (#4191)

<<<<<<<<<<<Brad your shorthand is a little different from mine so must clarify: a. = and?? b. = because?? >>>>>>>>>>>>

LOL. i think those would actually make sense in the context but, i really inteneded "a" to a and "b" to be b as I was listing 2 reasons for not wanting to give them my card. Reason a and reason b. Sorry if it is confusing reading.

Damn Literary Theory...
Posted by Cyrano on 29-May-2003 15:37:06 (#4196)

*lol* that makes more sense. I guess my major in English (Literary Theory emphasis) kicked in and I was deconstructing your post without even realizing it! You don't even want to know where I was going--Freudian and Marxist interpretations in hand. FYI I usually use btw = by the way and b/c = because.

Re: Damn Literary Theory...
Posted by Craig on 03-Jun-2003 22:53:12 (#4216)

You know if you don't want to give up an ID at the cage you don't have to, unless you have $10k to cash out. And if tou go to differnt booths and cage windows with $9999 at a time you can cash out without giving ID.

BradRod
Posted by HeadStrong on 16-Jun-2003 20:50:34 (#4294)

In my years of working for the bad guys (21 shift manager) I would have my pit bosses and a few key supervisors keep notebooks in their pockets with names, descriptions and player card numbers of repeat customers. Familiarity with your customers is always a good thing when you're the house. Its a good possibility that a supervisor or even a pit clerk had written your description down in a notebook or file months earlier and looked you up. We would even keep records of anything a customer mentioned like wife and kids names, where they worked, hobbies, etc... Makes you feel special when a manager that you barely rember talking to comes up and says, "Hi Brad, how did your son's baseball team doing?".

It is very unlikely they used face recognition, especially if you play on Indian land.

Mini Trip report
Posted by Learning to count on 27-May-2003 21:06:53 (#4184)

Casino Boat: Sea Escape
Six hour cruise out of Ft Lauderdale Florida
Game: All six deckers 1.5 average cut off. s17.
Min/Max 5-500 and 25-1000.
Win:15 units red.
No heat,easy to Wong, Lots of tables 29 or thirty! Went with the crew: Panther Counter,chicago slim, fla player, ploppy jimmy. Lots of fun and made a little money. I give this boat 4 out of five aces. Worth the 36 bucks to get on. Lots of ploppies, good food...Buffet equal to the sahara buffet Las Vegas. Free drinks. Caution:Lots of security suits walking around but found no heat.
Definitely worth the trip.

Re: Mini Trip report
Posted by The Mayor on 28-May-2003 09:48:49 (#4185)

Not a great game, but playable. Glad you came out ahead.

--Mayor

question for hi-opt 1
Posted by george... on 28-May-2003 09:57:39 (#4186)

any one knows if excist the hi-opt 1 develort for 6 deck european geme?
if yes ...who can i have it ?

Mr. Opt isn't here but maybe I can help
Posted by Cyrano on 30-May-2003 23:45:03 (#4198)

I haven't seen anything published for the European game, but I'm pretty sure CVCX can probably sim it for you. Go to www.qfit.com and email Norm and ask him if his software can do it.

AC adventure
Posted by NewToTheGame on 28-May-2003 12:04:15 (#4187)

After 4 years of fraternity life and partying, I felt that a vacation was needed before I start working :)... I gathered up 3 of my fraternity brothers, and packed for the Taj. What a weekend.

The weekend got off to a great start when one of my friends attempted to get a comped room under his father's name...telling the guest services employee he was 59 (he's really 22...he had a few plastic surgeries done ;)...)

Anyways, I checked out the BJ tables at Taj, and after 15 mins of sheer laughing at the pathetic conditions, headed upstairs to get ready to do some damage elsewhere. 8-deck w/ a bare minimum 2 deck cut-off (and 2.5 in some cases), could only re-split aces once, DAS, S17. Additionally, only $25 tables were available, which was a little on the expensive side for me.

Anyways, later that night, we headed over to the Hilton. There were 2 $15 tables w/ the rest $25 and up. Penetration was decently good (1.5 decks on avg) and conditions were pretty much the same, with the exception that over 1/2 the tables do not permit mid-shoe entry. My friend and I played at the $15, and he provided me w/ excellent cover. We were the "recent college grads" and were looking to have a good time. My friend threw down about 15 gin and cokes, and I was acting like his drunken counterpart. I played only positive TC's, and had the opportunity to b*llsh*t with the dealer and pit boss when TC's dipped negative. Then unexpectedly, count skyrockets, maybe +23 w/ 3.5 decks left, and I started playing $30-50 a hand (I wasn't playing Kelly b/c of limited bankroll, but I increased my bet w/ increasing count). Won 5 out of 6 hands, and ripped out a nice profit. After that, I checked out the other guys, who were doing alright. All in all, 7 hours at the Hilton (I probably played 2-3) - and up about 30 units.

Next day, we headed back to the Hilton. Sat down at a table FULL of ploppies, and by jumping in and out, I got so many dumb comments such as "you're messing up the consistency of the cards" and even the dealer said "you shouldn't be doing it, you're screwing up the order". Sigh....my excuse was, "i'm not playing until my friends start winning, and then I'll jump in." Anyways, penetration was ok...about 1.5-1.75 decks. So I'm sitting there about 4 decks through the shoe, and suddenly change $100 because of a great TC. Throw out $30, and dealt a blackjack...count is still good...so i throw out another $30, and guess what, another blackjack :)...the ploppies at the end just look at me...count sux, so I'm say "that's good enough for me", and I went to chill w/ the boys...

All in all, I had a good experience, learned alot, and took notes on my pocketpc. I am looking to head down there again within a couple of weeks...Does anyone know about the Borgato opening?

Borgato
Posted by BradRod on 29-May-2003 00:29:04 (#4188)

Does anyone know about the Borgato opening?

I hear the Borgato has $1000 play slot machines. up till them the hightest slot in AC was $500

Re: AC adventure
Posted by FLA Player on 29-May-2003 07:54:04 (#4193)

Great post- looks like the Hilton is the best place (condition wise) in AC according to BJForum spring issue. I wish I would have started my AP career at your age- just curious, what count are you using (Hi-Lo, KO, etc)?

Re: AC adventure
Posted by NewToTheGame on 30-May-2003 09:46:30 (#4197)

I use Hi-Lo w/ Ill. 18. It was the easiest method to learn, and seems to apply well for the shoe playing environment.

stiff hand help ?
Posted by Stephen Bauer on 31-May-2003 05:27:20 (#4199)

I have a new idea for help with stiff hands and i am looking for an open discussion of its merits and weaknesses. What I have been doing is when i have a hand that has almost a .50 expecation I switch to another system temporarily.

I give the average card a value of 7.5 so that there is a total of 30 points in any 4 card combination. I total the 3 cards i see (my two cards and the dealer up card)and subtract them from the 30 which would give me "a" value of the dealers hole card. I then use this value for the dealer hole card and make a decision based on the "a" . I do it a little every day in practice and keep track of the statistics. If the wizard of odds would run a sim and give us better numbers and statistics for what i am doing I would appreciate it.

It intuitively seems that a system need not be wonderful to have a better performance that 50/50. I am guessing that the usefullness of this may be limited to systms where the 7,8. and 9s are uncounted.

Re: stiff hand help ?
Posted by Cyrano on 31-May-2003 16:00:43 (#4201)

So, you're essentially basing your system on the 4 cards that most affect you: your 2 cards + the dealer's 2 cards? That means you've disregarded the other 50 cards in the deck, right? If that's the case, I think you can do just as well flipping a coin and save your mental facilities. Someone else care to interject?

Re: stiff hand help ?
Posted by Stephen Bauer on 31-May-2003 17:54:56 (#4202)

You are always basing your decision on the three cards shown. The count is just one more piece of data you collect to make your decision more accurate. Add the numbers up from 1 to 10. I get 55. Divide these numbers by 10 i get 5.5. Now if i select 4 numbers at random and add them they will tend to equal 5.5 times 4 or 22. The probability that any single number is 5.5 is very low. LOL but the probability that 4 numbers will total 22 is much greater. If you can manage to add all the other peoples hands and do the math and decide the hole card using the much larger sampling i'm happy for you. I plan on also understanding the role of the count i already have and how it influences the expected total. This is a thought experiement to help me increase my ability to deal logically with my weakest link ( the stiff hand ) using hi-low. If someone doesn't do the sim for me soon, i'll have to do it.

Re: stiff hand help ?
Posted by wong out on 01-Jun-2003 08:29:16 (#4204)

Youza!

Stephen; I have no idea what you are talking about doing. I suspect that the idea is not a winning strategy. Would be interested in seeing the results of the sim.

The whole idea behind counting is trying to predict (in a sense) th eprob of success/failure based on knowledge of the cards played and those unplayed; to make a play decision based on information limited to the 3 cards in front of you right now is certainly much less powerful than one based on knowledge of the many more cards played to that point.

wong out

Re: stiff hand help ?
Posted by Stephen Bauer on 01-Jun-2003 14:10:18 (#4205)

Dear Wong out,

Thank you for your response. The system we are using to evaluate our imformation has taken you to an impass. We are free to randomly choose our action. There is no longer an incorrect answer to our decision. I am now suggesting that we use another valid system to yield additional information just as the count system does in the decisions surrounding Basic Strategy.

Re: stiff hand help ?
Posted by Sonny on 01-Jun-2003 16:13:59 (#4207)

>I am now suggesting that we use another valid system to yield additional
>information just as the count system does in the decisions surrounding Basic
>Strategy.

But what if your new system contradicts what the count tells you to do? Will you stick to the count-based decision or will you put your faith in this new system and play on a hunch?

>There is no longer an incorrect answer to our decision.

If you are deviating from your count-based decisions (a deviation from your BS deviations, if that makes any sense) then there IS an incorrect answer. If you already have the correct answer, why bother to agonize over "how right" it is? If you have this kind of free time and free mental energy at the tables, add another side count or something.

>It intuitively seems that a system need not be wonderful to have a better
>performance that 50/50.

Agreed. In fact, most commercial counting systems have roughly a 60/40 playing efficiency. Perhaps your system could increase this marginally, but there are much better (and easier) ways to improve overall performance (playing faster, more indecies, side counts, tracking/sequencing, etc.).

Since you are looking for "an open discussion of its [your new system] merits and weaknesses", I would suggest that you focus your intellegence on another aspect of the game. Your new system will not increase your EV nearly enough to be worth the extra effort.

But don't let this discourage you. You are obviously trying to put a new spin on an old game. That is commendable. I just want to make sure you turn into a Wong or Schlesinger, not a John Patrick.

-Sonny-

Re: stiff hand help ?
Posted by The Mayor on 01-Jun-2003 15:57:47 (#4206)

Conditional probabilities...

the two statements are not equivalent:

"What is the average total of 4 cards in BJ"

and

"Given I have cards x,y, and the dealer has card z, the expected card for the dealer is w such that x+y+z+w = 30"

In fact, the expected card for the dealer is a 7.5 in an infinite deck, so that even if you have 3 T's or 3 2's, you can still expect the dealer to get a 7.5. This is the "independent case" towards which the other cases converge.

--Mayor

Re: stiff hand help ?
Posted by Stephen Bauer on 01-Jun-2003 19:42:42 (#4209)

Dear Mayor,

Thank you for your contribution to my thought experiment. I have read your resume and was very impressed with both your credentials and your thoughtful and enlightening posts.

I cannot tell you which numbers will be selected in a lottery however i will make book with you that the sum of the random numbers selected will cluster about some centerpoint and that the standard deviations will follow the bell curve. The random card removed is not indepenfent. If i have only two cards a ten and a two they total 12 pips. If I play the 10 the total nuimber of pips that remain in the deck will be 2 divide that by the number of cards remaining (1) and the prediction for the remeining card is 2. Count the number of pips on deck (shoe) divide by the number of cards in the deck (shoe). This is the average number of pips on a card. If i get a card that has more pips than average the remaining cards now have less pips than average. So using your example I have 3 10s and if the pip average were 7.5 pips per card my remaining deck which the hole card is a part of will be short 7.5 pips and most likely to be the new reduced average of the remaining deck. For Example in this case less than a 7.5. I would be expecting a small card. I have 20 dealer has a ten and a presumed small card. I'm staying. I am suggestiong this only as a brainstorming technique to get all the great minds we have here working on our common problem of dealing more efficiently with stiff hands. Mayor you have the brains to give us a system based on the number of pips remaining in a deck with indexes on how many pips it takes to vary strategy. I leave it mayor to your great mind to determine many pips an ace has one or 11. LOL

With great resspect,
Stephen Bauer

Re: stiff hand help ?
Posted by alienated on 02-Jun-2003 01:46:02 (#4210)

I find your thought process interesting, and I like how you're trying to think of new angles. But I think there is a slight flaw in your basic assumptions. Specifically, whatever information those three cards can tell you about the hole card, they will also tell you about the next card. Suppose you can correctly modify your count information using knowledge of those three cards and you calculate correctly that the probability of the hole card being a 6 is now X rather than Y. If so, you will also know that the probability of the next card being a 6 is also X rather than Y. Optimal strategy would account for the shifting probabilities of all unseen cards, not just the hole card. This is exactly the same sort of information that a count system provides. That is, it tells you about the composition of remaining cards but nothing about their order. The better the count system, the better (on average) your decisions will reflect the actual composition of the remaining cards. If you could correctly modify your count information in the light of the 3 cards you are considering, you would have a slightly better count system than you would otherwise have. In a sense, you have taken a (very small) step towards precise knowledge of how many of each card remain, and what this implies for strategy. Correct modification of your count that factored in all the cards in the present round would be a larger step. Keeping separate count of all thirteen denominations from the start of the shoe and calculating the optimal strategy on the basis of the remaining densities would be the ultimate level for this type of strategy (which monitors composition but disregards order).

To emphasise the distinction, compare two basic scenarios. In the first, you think you spot enough of the dealer's hole card to know that it is card A, B, or C with equiprobability, but not card D, E, ..., M. Here you have much stronger information about the dealer's hole card than you do about the next card. You know the hole card is either A, B, or C. In contrast, the only additional information you have about the next card is that it will be drawn from all unseen cards, where these unseen cards have been depleted by either one A, one B, or one C. That is, there has been a very slight shift in the probabilities relating to the next card (the shift being smaller earlier in the shoe than later), but a dramatic shift in the probabilities relating to the dealer's hole card. In this case, the information about the hole card is of overwhelming importance, and will have a much bigger impact on optimal strategy than the weak information about the next card.

Now consider a second, very hypothetical scenario. The dealer accidentally deals herself two hole cards. You spot one of them well enough to know that it is either card A, B, or C. The dealer notices her error and calls over the pit boss. The pit boss picks up the two cards, concealing their identity, and walks away to make a phone call. After a minute or so, the pit boss comes back and announces that one of the cards will be the dealer's hole card, while the other will be the next card. (The PB says that they don't like to burn cards in their casino because, for given penetration, dealer speed, player speed, and number of chip purchases and colour ups per hour, it causes shuffling to occur too frequently, thereby lowering rounds per hour and the casino's hourly return. The PB uses this exact explanation. ;-)) As a result of the PB's decision, you now have information that pertains equally to the dealer's hole card and the next card. It is now more likely that either the hole card is A, B, or C, or that the next card is A, B, or C. In this case, to play the hand optimally, you would need to factor in both effects. There is a symmetry to the information in this second case that is absent in the earlier scenario. This symmetry is also present with the approach you are suggesting.

Re: stiff hand help ?
Posted by Stephen Bauer on 02-Jun-2003 06:43:40 (#4211)

Dear Alientated,

Thank you for your contribution to this discussion. The assumption I am making is that all remaining cards will have the same value. the number of pips on the remaining cards divided by the number of cards, therefore i need not worry what this or that card is; they are all the same card. If i have a large number of tens the remeining deck may all be considered 6's. In fact if this system were expanded to include a running count of the pips it might be possible to use this information to predict your first card before it is given and hence your bet sizing, I will read your post many times and try to understand all of your well thought out analysis.

thank you for your help alienated. We need to step outside the box here and not be afraid to say something that others may think of a dumb or than we may realize upon closer examination as an invalid arguement. In brainstorming it is completely unimportant if your idea is right or wrong , the only value of an idea is that it stimulates another idea in both the poster and the reader.

Nope...
Posted by The Mayor on 02-Jun-2003 17:54:34 (#4213)

You said: "We need to step outside the box here and not be afraid to say something that others may think of a dumb or than we may realize upon closer examination as an invalid arguement. In brainstorming it is completely unimportant if your idea is right or wrong , the only value of an idea is that it stimulates another idea in both the poster and the reader."

When the phrase "stepping outside the box" is used, it is always used to describe a new paradigm that is consistent with the known universe, but also answers unknown questions. No one would ever "step outside the box" to posit information that contradicts basic mathematics or physics. Relativity extended Newtonian physics. Even the famous "parallel postulate" was a simple matter of being shown to be independent of the other axioms.

Steve, this is a worthless thread, and I hope you will learn from the experts here who have been patient enough to answer you without flaming you, and drop it.

Wow, I almost sound like D.S. here... 8-)

--Mayor

Re: Nope...
Posted by Stephen Bauer on 02-Jun-2003 19:54:43 (#4214)

Dear Mayor,

I was discussing very politely about the sharing of knowledge and experiments we can do to solve one of our problems (stiff hands). What did you mean about the flaming.? Who would say something negative aabout the process of free inquiry, and if someone did , I would expect that you would not post it. I am going to run some simple simulations using pips and model the ace in different ways.

If you listen to the Tinman and hear a story that isn't the Wizard of Oz. Now that woud be outside the box. LOL.

Re: Nope...
Posted by The Mayor on 03-Jun-2003 07:46:05 (#4215)

Allow me to quote from the POSTING GUIDELINES (there is a link at the top of the message board):

-> Mythology and pseudo-science cannot be promoted or encouraged.

Your posts are promoting mythology (or at least, the consideration of mythology). This is explicitly not allowed on this site.

Thank you.

Re: stiff hand help ?
Posted by Learning to count on 03-Jun-2003 22:54:14 (#4217)

Mr. Bauer, Are you not alligned or at the very least friend's with puiu and clark cante. Both being notorious trolls on BJ web sites. Use caution here Mr. Bauer the mayor is an intellectual but he does carry a big slide ruler. Please no mischief here; PLEASE!!! Keep it honest and to the point. This is the BJ21 no spin zone!

Re: stiff hand help ?
Posted by The Mayor on 04-Jun-2003 10:44:23 (#4220)

It's almost like you're inside my brain.

I saw a great bumper sticker lately that summarizes my feelings towards mythology: "Warning, driver is a dragon who considers humans crunchy with ketchup".

In the face of a single fallacy any subsequent claim is logically true.

--Mayor

Red Seven
Posted by YAESU on 01-Jun-2003 16:21:39 (#4208)

Hi all -

Im looking for any articals about the Red Seven count that compares it's
power with similar counts such as KO and T-H. More important, would be any thoughts on Red Seven from anyone who uses it.I have been learning to keep my RC
accurate for a month or so now, and soon will impliment the 4 easy BS
plays for RC of 0 and +2 (I think). Is there an easier yet more powerful
count than Red Seven? Btw - I need to stick with RC systems only as TC
conversions are difficult.

Thanks... Yaesu

Anyone here like the Red Seven Count?? *NM*
Posted by Tripod on 16-Mar-2005 20:10:08 (#12475)

I like it...
Posted by zengrifter on 17-Mar-2005 20:33:21 (#12489)

...but its not worth the extra effort, over KO. zg

Recommending Red 7
Posted by Seeker on 17-Mar-2005 22:52:35 (#12492)

In the Red 7, you pay attention to the color of the sevens. That unusual feature strikes many players as an obstacle. I'm guessing that's what zengrifter means by referring to extra effort.

In my experience, this very quickly becomes second nature. It's not a matter that should deter anyone from adopting the Red 7 count.

Kiss Stage 3 and Red 7 MIX
Posted by Tripod on 18-Mar-2005 00:46:43 (#12493)

I am thinking of adopting the Kiss Stage 3 and its indices according to Renzey. The one change I want to make is switch the BLACK 2 count value with Snyder's Red 7's.

If you go with KISS...
Posted by zengrifter on 18-Mar-2005 12:42:47 (#12500)

...there is NO reason to count R7s instead of B2s! zg

Very true but...
Posted by Tripod on 18-Mar-2005 14:02:10 (#12502)

for some reason I feel more comfortable counting all 2 values and half 7's than counting all 7's and half 2's. I think its just more logical with basic strategy. Any further opinions?

I looked at Thorpes Ultimate count. He valued the 2 and 7 almost identically. I believe he gave the 2 a value of 5 and the 7 a value of 4. According to Thorpe the 2 is a slightly worse card for the player. 5 was the worse card, value of 11.

I think Renzey's strategy should hold about the same regardless of which way I go.

Red 7
Posted by Winnie Wong on 18-Mar-2005 02:49:16 (#12494)

The Red 7 is the nuts.
Winnie Wong

Red 7's
Posted by MrPill on 18-Mar-2005 05:17:43 (#12495)

I would concure with Seeker.

I have been using the Red 7 count for the past 4 or 5 years after it was recommended to me over KO by ZG on the old CardCounter Cafe board.

I have not looked at the KO recently but seem to remember that it used a different pivot point and indicies depending on the number or decks in use. Whereas the Red 7 did a IRC adjustment based on the number of decks (-2/deck) so all other numbers stayed the same. This is why I felt Red 7 was easier.

Also, as Seeker has stated recognizing the Red 7's vs Black 7's comes pretty easy. Your mind gets trained quickly and it is no different, in my mind than telling the difference between a 6 and an 8 after practice.

Good Luck,
Pill

Sea Sick: Another mini trip report
Posted by Learning to count on 02-Jun-2003 13:50:06 (#4212)

Now I know how it feels to be in Atlantic city!

Florida Suncruz casino boats.
Madeira Beach/John's Pass (Tampa Bay area)Florida.
8 deck game, 2-3 deck cut off, late surrendar, s17,ds.
8 tables: 1 table always jammed $5-$500. 2 tables $25. five tables $10-$500. Plenty of ploppies, heavy smoke, too many slots, evil looks when wonging, a just plain miserable environment.

Highlight of the trip: running down the gang plank when she docked!

Lows of the trip: 20 unit loss and winning $50 on a slot machine to make it a 10 unit loss overall. The boat is hot and sticky. Lots of women who were fairly ugly with a few interesting tattoos on thier arms and legs! The food was unique. I actually did not get sick after eating it! The boat tends to rock and roll and I don't mean musically either. Saw some force five projection vomiting too. I gave one ole girl a ten for arc and distance. A nine for splatter effect.

Caution: The entry fee is ten bucks and you do get a five dollar match play but the enormous bite the cut card takes makes the game unplayable whether you wong or play all. Some heat when wonging due to ploppy bad looks and complaints.

Save your bottle returns folks and go to Ft Lauderdale and go on the the Sea Escape ship for descent shoe play: six deck 1.5-2 deck cut offs. With a few one deck cut off offering dealers and you can wong to your hearts content. The SunCruz line is basically a grind joint with smokey bad manners.

SunCruz=2 aces out of five!

Laughlin
Posted by reddevil on 04-Jun-2003 00:35:40 (#4218)

Ok, so Laughlin used to be one of my favorite places to gamble.

This past weekend changed all of that. Walking around the casinos i saw something that suprised me, lots of 8 deck shoes NDAS, 6 to 5 single deck tables, and plenty of Spanish 21. 6 months ago i was in Laughlin and it was all single or double decks with decent penetration, maybe a few 6 deck shoes and Sp 21 at the low limit ($1 or $2)tables. Even then there was a handful of $2 single deck tables to be found.

A few decent games could be found at the Riverside, but other than that the games stank. What the heck happened? I was so disappointed that I asked a buddy of mine to show me how to play craps instead. Fortunately I was there with a really big group and it was not intended to be a gambling trip in the first place.

Is this really the way it is going to be for good? What's next, 6 to 5 in downtown LV?

Reddevil.

Re: Laughlin
Posted by The Mayor on 04-Jun-2003 10:42:08 (#4219)

Thanks for the report, I was thinking of taking a trip to Laughlin, now I will avoid it.

It is good to remember that counting is just the road into advantage play, but that there are MANY other advantage opportunities that don't require decent rules or penetration.

--Mayor

Blackjack Insider newsletter
Posted by Henry Tamburin on 04-Jun-2003 18:32:40 (#4221)

To view the June issue of the Blackjack Insider newsletter click here:

http://bjinsider.com/newsletter_41.shtml

Re: Blackjack Insider newsletter
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Jun-2003 18:50:56 (#4269)

A fine newsletter it is. Good work again, Henry!

--Mayor

BJ Burnout THANK YOU's:
Posted by phantom007 on 04-Jun-2003 19:06:01 (#4222)

Thank you to all who responded to my post of about 3 weeks ago. Just read same today...your advice is taken and shared. Sorry it has taken so long, but hell, I was BURNT OUT. But:

"I feel much better now!"

Tunica BEWARE! I will be there next week. Guard your Chips, and your towels!

phantom007.

short of counting
Posted by Pal on 04-Jun-2003 23:19:15 (#4223)

While I know how to count, I don't have the bankroll to spread, the time to make it worthwhile, or the ambition to pursue it YET. However, I just came upon a situation which I don't remember reading in Wong or Schlessinger's book.

Where can I find a site which lists when it is profitable to buy or sell a split or double. I recently saw someone pay another player even money for his blackjack. He also attempted this on splits and doubles.
Also, when if ever, would it be profitable to offer a $1 premium for the exchange.

Also, I know the index for 16 vs 10 is 0. Online I was reading about varying play based on table cards exposed if your not counting. What is the value of this in a shoe game? I suspect it is extremely small since you nearly always be very close to the index.

Is any of this even worthwhile? :)

Re: short of counting
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Jun-2003 18:53:09 (#4270)

It sounds like your are splitting the EV hairs. There is so much more to be made in searching out games with good penetration than you could ever make by buying others doubles/splits. However, don't pass up the opportunity should it arise! I put $100 on someone's 11 against a 6 last time in Vegas. Why the heck not!!???

--Mayor

Re: short of counting
Posted by Sohrab on 18-Jun-2003 11:41:44 (#4300)

I did not know this is allowed. Maybe it is like surrender they don't say they have it, but you have to ask? Do some places only allow it?

How do you do this?

Lesson from Mayor's June Podium
Posted by LVBear584 on 05-Jun-2003 12:08:10 (#4224)

Casino personnel are not, and cannot, be your friends.
Casino personnel are not, and cannot, be your friends.
Casino personnel are not, and cannot, be your friends.
Casino personnel are not, and cannot, be your friends.
Casino personnel are not, and cannot, be your friends.

Repeat one hundred times.

Re: Lesson from Mayor's June Podium
Posted by The Mayor on 05-Jun-2003 12:44:40 (#4226)

It was kind of a whining podium, but I wanted to just get it out.

In the end, it isn't what other people do to you, it's how you to react to it.

I think I'll repeat that mantra a few more times...

--Mayor

Re: Lesson from Mayor's June Podium
Posted by wong out on 14-Jun-2003 09:08:04 (#4290)

I know that I will be out of line with the mainstream on this topic. But is sounds to me like the Mayor's friend did what he could to get the Mayor back in but was overruled by his management. The Mayor is disappointed because he interprets the lack of a response to repeat phone calls etc as a lack of "friendship." Put yourself in the casino manager shoes for a moment. You have this guy (who you think is a friend) who you tried to do a favor for and were overuled; nothing more you can do and you feel abit embarrased.

Now the guy is trying to get of hold of you and all you can do is give the bad news and maybe at this point you are wondering why you tried to help this guy out at all. I mean if he were a real friend then he would understand that you did what you could and not hold it against you. Anyhow I agree with the Bear on this point; you can't have any real friends on the other side of the tables. Their livelihood is preserved by staying within the good karma of their management and in the final analysis they are not going to stake their kids braces, college tuition, or ability to keep the little lady happy for some "friend" that they met in a casino. Isnt going to happen; just like I am not going to lay off of a place with a good game because I have a rapport with the casino mgr, etc. The moola I make playing is more important to me than any "friend" that I make in the casino. I have found that I am either loved or hated in the casino anyway and dont consider it a prime place to make friends.

If the Mayor really thought of the CM as a friend; he would leave him a msg to the effect, "that he understood that they guy couldnt do anything and appreicated his efforts and no problem and invite him out for a beer or something." Friends dont just pop in and out based on what they can or cannot do for you.

Like I say put the shoe on the other foot for the moment and dont think that you build friendships in the casino.

my 2.5 cents..

wong out

The snake and the old women.
Posted by Learning to count on 05-Jun-2003 14:25:23 (#4228)

Oso is right Mayor the casino pit critter I liken to a Snake. Once there was an old mexican women who lived in the mountains of Mexico. One day as she was walking on a trail on a high peak she came upon a partially frozen rattle snake. The snake looked up with sadness. The old women bent over and picked the snake up and put in her clay pot and took it back to her hut. The old women warmed the snake and fed it. In time the snake gained some of its strength back. The old women took the snake outside to let him slither around for excercise she would then pick him up and rub his belly and even hand feed him a rat or two. The snake soon gained a hundred percent of his strength. One day the old women took him out for a long walk. The snake was coiled up in the clay pot. The women stopped by a stream and put the pot down. The old women reached in to pull out the snake so he could excercise. As she grabbed the snake he whipped around and sank both fangs deep in her wrist. Both fangs peircing her veins and arteries. The stored up venom flowed in the wounds. As the old women lay there the snake bit her numerous times. The old lady asked the snake why he was doing this after she befreinded him, saved his life, and raised him like a son. The snake looked at her with a venom dripping smile and said "what do you want old women I am a RATTLE SNAKE AND I BITE THATS MY NATURE". The old women shed a tear and as she passed on she muttered "and I thought we were freinds".

Re: The snake and the old women.
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 06-Jun-2003 22:06:53 (#4230)

Just imagine a snake that bit the entire human race. Some are greedy, some want power, some want pleasure, some like to cause others pain, some like to steal, to lie, to create trouble for others. That's in our nature. Not all of the time, just enough to make us, well, human.

Nice run down of the old advantage plays that used to be available Mayor. You boys sure no how to keep a lid on the better secrets out there.

rattle rattle

Statement to the Blackjack Community
Posted by Michael Belgard on 06-Jun-2003 19:56:44 (#4229)

I wish to notify the Blackjack Community that as of May 15th, 2003, I resigned as editor of Trackjack, and am no longer associated with it or advantageplayer.com.

I am no longer responsible for the accuracy or freshness of the table conditions reports on that site.

Additionally, I have notified Viktor Nacht to remove my handle as Titaniumman as co-host on the South & West board.

I Don't Understand
Posted by SammyBoy on 06-Jun-2003 23:23:07 (#4232)

What is going on here? I have a favorite spot that I like to play Single Deck. It has ALL the same rules as their shoe games, double any 2, double after splitting, S17, with good pen. According to CBJN this is a positive EV game for a perfect basic strategy player. I, however have played there 98 hours this year and am down over $1400 or 140 units (-$14.50 per hour). What are the odds of this being possible? I'm using a 1 to 5 spread and Hi-Lo.

Besides this casino I have played 93.5 hours in about 9 others and am ahead $1660 or $17.77 per hour. Mostly double deck, but the occasional single deck with less favorable rules. Also the double deck penetration is usually not much better that .8 to 1.0.

I feel like I should be WAY ahead at the single deck game. I realize that this is not nearly enough time to get into the long run but what is the likelihood of my results? Thanks.

SammyBoy

Re: I Don't Understand
Posted by k mcmi on 07-Jun-2003 02:15:30 (#4233)

I dont have the statistics handy, but I can tell you that you are WELL within normal deviations. In Ian Anderson's "Burning the Tables", he talks about playing at a major resort over 12 weekends and being down over 1500 units. Asumming he played 8-10 hours per weekend, his hours would be similiar to yours, and although the does not say exactly how many decks were being used nor the rules or penetration, you can be sure that a player of his caliber would not be playing a bad game. Keep smiling, keep on playing and your results will ultimately correlate stronly to expectation
K MCMI

Re: I Don't Understand
Posted by Learning to count on 07-Jun-2003 07:34:54 (#4234)

Ic hecked CBJN and the best games I found were north nevada. These games had a .06 vig on them. The next games I found that were good were in downtwon LV with a .18 vig. I did not see any games that had a positive vig when played with BS. Could you at least detail the area you saw this game listed in cbjn. I cant find it.

Re: I Don't Understand
Posted by The Mayor on 07-Jun-2003 09:02:57 (#4236)

There are several, one for example is the Barcelona in far North Las Vegas.

As far as odds -- you played 97 hours. If I were to take a guess, I'd say you are still in the 1-st standard deviation with your results (unfortunately). The truth is that 97 hours is almost nothing at all to the game of BJ.

You might want to read this essay which gives some interesting results for 300 hours.

http://www.cardcounter.com/Essays/Three_Hundred_Hours.htm

Re: I Don't Understand
Posted by Jimmy on 07-Jun-2003 11:44:33 (#4237)

Assuming the SD/hand in BJ is 1(in fact it is a little bit more), and you play 400 hands. One SD would be then SQRT of 400=20. My question: How do you call it, if some one is losing(winning) 80 units? I think, you don`t talk about winning or losing 4 or 5 SDs. OR?

Re: I Don't Understand
Posted by Learning to count on 07-Jun-2003 11:51:40 (#4238)

Barcelona's lowest vig is .49. No one deckers are listed all are 2 deckers.

Re: I Don't Understand
Posted by The Mayor on 07-Jun-2003 13:34:35 (#4239)

It is not listed.

The game usually only plays from 3PM to midnight (sometimes 6PM to midnight). It is single deck, LSR, DAS, with a few bonuses (like any total of 21 wins automatically). It is a very good game. And not listed in CBJN.

Two problems:
1) $100 max bet.
2) RO5.

--Mayor

Thanks Mayor
Posted by SammyBoy on 07-Jun-2003 18:29:46 (#4241)

Your example also illustrates the advantage of team play.

Re: I Don't Understand
Posted by CougFan on 09-Jun-2003 16:26:41 (#4245)

I made an assumption re: pen at 35/52 (you said "Good" but not "great"). I further assumed a betting ramp of 1-5 units ramping with the TC (2 units at TC=2, etc). I further assumed Hi-Lo with I18, 1 other player, 100 hands per hour, NO PLAYING/BETTING ERRORS, and NO COVER BETS/PLAYS.

Based on these assumptions, per BJRM, your results is very unlikely, with only a 3.2% likelihood of this result or worse.

If we change the assumptions a bit and say 60 hands per hour with an average bet of 2 units off the top for cover, then the result is a bit more likely at 5.5%. I did not sim the effect of playing errors, etc.

Also, I am making a further assumption that you keep separate track of tips and do not factor these in as part of your win / loss. I know that some people just lump tips in with their win/loss results, which completes screws up the analysis.

To summarize, if you are using NO COVER and are making NO MISTAKES, then your result is extremely unlikely.

Thanks CougFan
Posted by SammyBoy on 09-Jun-2003 17:31:31 (#4246)

Well, I do not track tips separately. I tip very little now but at one time tipped more. I also do not split tens and do often bet 2 units off the top for cover.

I went back this weekend and was able to take some of that money back from them, but I lost it and much more at a few other places. I had the worst run of cards in my life. I could not hit a Double-Down to save my life! It didn't matter how high the count was I could not get a ten, lots of aces on my eleven though.

Do they deal 7 hands head on?
Posted by Card Counter on 20-Jun-2003 02:22:10 (#4304)

Is the dealer dealing less than 7 hands when it's just you and the dealer? If so, the dealer isn't dealing far enough into the deck to be profitable. If that's the case, just quit. Also, you need a higher betting ratio.

A power blackjack game *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Stonet on 07-Jun-2003 08:11:09 (#4235)

please visit http://www.stonet.cc, a power blackjack game can be download.

KO Extended Matrix
Posted by MJC on 07-Jun-2003 15:09:01 (#4240)

Does anyone have (or derived) an extended matrix for the KO system. The basic 18 are great, but sometimes I wonder (when the big money is on the table) if I am doing the right thing. Ex. pair of 10's vs 6 with a +10 count, 2 decks (not a too uncommon occurance) calls for a stand, but would a split be better? It would be interesting to see some of those matrix numbers and then start to memorize the more profitable ones as I get better.

MJC

short Reno report
Posted by Biff on 08-Jun-2003 09:02:31 (#4243)

Just back from Reno on short trip. Was there three days but BJ time was limited. Played a total of 6.5 hours at the Nugget. Up 32 units, $25 table, 1-3 players, spread 1-4 units, no heat.
Was great to post a winning trip after not playing for 8-9 months.
Love that positive deviation.
Biff

Re: short Reno report
Posted by Learning to count on 10-Jun-2003 13:37:23 (#4250)

Great trip 35 units of green. I know that was fun.

Why Was Cellini's MSG Deleted? *NM*
Posted by SammyBoy on 10-Jun-2003 14:13:56 (#4251)

Re: Why Was Cellini's MSG Deleted?
Posted by The Mayor on 10-Jun-2003 19:42:50 (#4252)

Mr. Cellini posted here some information that I consider very important, but also subject to independent verification. Because of the delicate nature of the information, management decided to delete it and allow those who know him best, namely the folks at bjfonline.com, to decide how/when/where to post a response.

I support CCC.com management 100% in their response to this situation.

--Mayor

I'll Trust Your Judgement on this one. *NM*
Posted by SammyBoy on 10-Jun-2003 22:58:01 (#4254)

Re: Why Was Cellini's MSG Deleted?
Posted by Ivy Kid on 11-Jun-2003 16:27:27 (#4262)

Did Cellini's message contain libel? Did its contents violate some copyright or other kind of exclusivity or confidentiality agreement? Was it illegal in any other way?

I understand your sentiments mayor, but if the answer to those three questions above is "no," then I believe there was a wrongful act of censorship on this board. What we need are open channels of discussion within the blackjack community and broad protections of communication. We do not need the removal of controversial content.

Perhaps you are not sure if it was indeed Cellini who posted the message? Perhaps it was an imposter? If that is the case, I think you should work to confirm its veracity, and it deletion be temporary and last only until confirmation takes place.

If Cellini's message was indeed legal, I think its removal indicates a failure in management's ability to serve its members. Whether you are a newspaper editor or a Web site message board editor, you have an obligation to uphold the most stringent codes of journalistic ethics. I am not claiming that CC did not think this decision through or that it acted too rashly or quickly; I do claim it made the wrong decision.

That said, I have two additional comments. First, I do respect your right to remove posts at your discretion. Second, I don't have all the facts, so you may discount this post; however, that I don't have all the facts is the very problem with your decision and the very reason I am posting.

WHOA HOLD ON THERE! ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 11-Jun-2003 17:17:46 (#4263)

First of all the post itself was removed by the poster himself. We did not remove it. The post was addressed to Learning to count. We allowed it to be posted because it was presented as an open post and not as an E-Mail. The nature of the post was obviously personal and from what we can surmise from the posters deletion they did not want it on the Main Message board. At this time we do not know the origination of the post. We deleted subsequent posts from others in this thread because the original post disappeared. These posts were merely espressing sentements to the original post and poster. This board has always maintained its "expressed" will to promote Advantage Play by accepted card counting strategy not by wishful thinking, Voodoo, or GAMBLING Mythology. We intend on running the board on this course and on the speed of the members/posters who interactively post. We also retain the right to censure any violations of the boards rules. Freedom of speech is the American way but Advantage Play discourse is what we are about. We also have the non-Blackjack page set up for other than BJ discussions. Oh Ivy Kid we have given you unmoderated poster rights. So post on!

Re: WHOA HOLD ON THERE!
Posted by Ivy Kid on 11-Jun-2003 18:16:15 (#4265)

I'm sorry for the misunderstanding! The first two messages in this thread made me believe that management deleted the post.

I apologize. And I largely support your policies.

No problemo amigo ... ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 11-Jun-2003 18:33:05 (#4266)

...and we do value uour oppinion!

Re: WHOA HOLD ON THERE!
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Jun-2003 18:49:19 (#4268)

Oops ... there I go, spreading misinformation.

Management is right -- Cellini deleted his own post.

I am sure 50 people saw it before it was deleted, and that it made the rounds of attempting to be posted on other sites. I myself had a post busted at bjfonline.com that referred to the details of the post by Cellini.

Wait and see...

--Mayor

Re: Why Was Cellini's MSG Deleted?
Posted by Mayor on 11-Jun-2003 18:46:31 (#4267)

My mistake, Cellini did delete his own post -- I got management in trouble on that one! I'll hear from them (soon -- maybe over a beer).

I assume the content of his post here is well known, and has been frequently posted and busted already on other sites 8-)

-Mayor

Re: Why Was Cellini's MSG Deleted? ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 11-Jun-2003 21:30:59 (#4271)

""My mistake, Cellini did delete his own post -- I got management in trouble on that one! I'll hear from them (soon -- maybe over a beer).

I assume the content of his post here is well known, and has been frequently posted and busted already on other sites 8-)

-Mayor""

A beer? You think your getting away for just the price of a beer. Well maybe a pitcher! Management

Not Illegal or Journalism
Posted by Big Cowboy on 12-Jun-2003 09:27:06 (#4272)

In response to Ivy Kid's post on Mr. Cellini's post being censored. Your line of reasoning is off. I am only a participant in the activities of this board. Mr. Mayor and CardCounterManagement are the ones who run this site. They already do not allow nonsense language, expletives, or over the top attacks in this--their private forum. In other words, they own the room where we all gather to talk. Ivy Kid did not object to those tenets. Their duties in screening posts have nothing to do with illegalities or journalistic integrity. A message board is privately run and not a newspaper/tv show. In other words, they make the rules, and we either follow them or we go off to something like bjfonline.com. Censorship cannot be an issue based on your line thinking. Keep in mind in a lot of cases already that there is a long lag in writing a message and actually seeing it posed up on the board. I would imagine that the messages are thus being screened for appropriate content.

Re: Not Illegal or Journalism ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 12-Jun-2003 11:17:47 (#4276)

What we are promoting is Advantage Play by "Card Counting" strategies and methods. We do have a non-blackjack board which we allow posting of things that are non-blackjack. We do watch for any nonsense or mischief. The main board has from the start been watched over very closely and is going to kept on course. We have in the past been tolerant of some mischief but have found that in doing so certain persons who have obvious agendas in mind run a mile within the few feet we allow them to roam. All we want is a AP web site for anyone who is interested in learning. Even the casinos.

Even the casinos?
Posted by Random on 12-Jun-2003 18:57:05 (#4283)

What exactly do you mean by this,are you inviting casinos to visit and post here?

Re: Even the casinos? *NM*
Posted by I assume the answer is yes. on 21-Jun-2003 18:42:34 (#4308)

Are you Saying Cellini's Post was not BJ Related?
Posted by SammyBoy on 13-Jun-2003 15:16:28 (#4285)

I think anything a guy of Cellini's caliber has to say should be on the main board. Now if Cellini pulled his own post that is one thing. If you guys pulled it then I respect your right to do so, but would expect a good explanation at some point in the future once things shakeout.

Re: Are you Saying Cellini's Post was not BJ Related?
Posted by Learning to count on 13-Jun-2003 22:39:19 (#4288)

Well actually I think it was supposed to be a personal note to me. I think Mr. Cellini was responding to my well wishing to him On BJF21. I asked him to put a profile on this site and to join us. As far as BJ info It was personal. I dont think any one could improve their game by it.

Lucky Ladies Red 7?
Posted by Sohrab on 10-Jun-2003 20:03:55 (#4253)

There is article here says in 6 decks at KO count of +10 lucky ladies becomes a good bet. KO 6 decks starts at -20 so this is a +30 from starting count. What would it be for Red 7? Would it be -12 + 30 = +18?

Re: Lucky Ladies Red 7?
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Jun-2003 02:44:31 (#4257)

I wrote simulation software that works for a balanced count, or a running count -- but it doesn't work with Red 7.

Give me any count that doesn't separate individual cards from a suit, the game (with the exact payoffs), I'll report back to you.

--Mayor

Re: Lucky Ladies Red 7?
Posted by Sohrab on 11-Jun-2003 13:27:01 (#4259)

Can your program use this version of Red 7

2-6 +1
7 +1/2
8-9 0
10-A -1

The results you are after!!!
Posted by The Mayor on 12-Jun-2003 10:11:39 (#4273)

It can handle: 2,2,2,2,2,1,0,0,-2,-2 -- you can just cut these results in half to get your entry point...etc.

Let me just say, there are MUCH MORE PROFITABLE WAYS of playing this game. For this game, it looks like for Red-7, make the bet at a TC of 11 or higher.

This is for a 6 deck game, normal payoffs, play all, true count conversion (rather than running count), 100,000,000 hands simulation.

 

 

******************* 

Lucky Ladies Report 

******************* 

Number of decks: 6 

number of hands: 100000000 

Penetration: 240 cards. 

Payoff schedule:  

   Any 20:        4-to-1 

   Suited 20:     9-to-1 

   Matched 20:    19-to-1 

   QH pair:       125-to-1 

   QH pair + BJ:  1000-to-1 

Count system:  

   A: -2 

   2: 2 

   3: 2 

   4: 2 

   5: 2 

   6: 2 

   7: 1 

   8: 0 

   9: 0 

   T: -2 

QofH: -2 

 

 

Lucky Lady earnings per 100 rounds (per hour): $2.3793 

Wager is made 1.20801 times per 100 rounds (per hour) 

Earnings per Lucky Lady $25 bet actually placed: $1.9696 

Leave the table when true count falls below -99. 

Key True count (make bet at this count or higher): 22 

Standard deviation per hand is: $20.9356 

Desirability index for this system: 94.0789 

 

 

TC      %EV     FREQ 

<=0     -31     39115539 

1       -26.08  9721943 

2       -25.19  7931446 

3       -24.21  6578164 

4       -22.95  5518697 

5       -22.58  4675367 

6       -21.39  3922773 

7       -20.79  3386449 

8       -19.94  2869770 

9       -18.78  2445836 

10      -18.24  2140948 

11      -16.99  1826353 

12      -14.95  1260500 

13      -14.94  1595683 

14      -13.65  1153000 

15      -12.28  1003649 

16      -9.43   813061 

17      -9.48   698808 

18      -7.61   615974 

19      -5.51   480679 

20      -4.83   437240 

21      -3.98   344232 

22      -0.94   277664 

23      0.57    255587 

24      1.72    193915 

25      5.14    111636 

26      5.01    168106 

27      9.01    100232 

28      12.24   90397 

29      13.06   58541 

30      17.54   48698

Re: The results you are after!!!
Posted by Sohrab on 12-Jun-2003 15:09:23 (#4279)

My plan was to play as usual but also make side bet when it was right. But I did not know when it was right. Thank you so much for this.

But I am still confused. With Red 7 there is running count not true count. I know converting is not exact but is there some way to estimate true count from running count? R7 with 6 decks starts at -12, and every deck has +2, then does this mean true of +11 is close to running R7 of +13? So bet gets good at running R7 of +13?

The RC version
Posted by The Mayor on 12-Jun-2003 18:01:38 (#4282)

This starts with a RC of 0 -- looks like a RC of 22 will do it. Not a great system or very profitable in your case, i.e. Red 7 sucks for lucky ladies.

 

 

******************* 

Lucky Ladies Report 

******************* 

Number of decks: 6 

number of hands: 100000000 

Penetration: 240 cards. 

Payoff schedule:  

   Any 20:        4-to-1 

   Suited 20:     9-to-1 

   Matched 20:    19-to-1 

   QH pair:       125-to-1 

   QH pair + BJ:  1000-to-1 

Count system:  

   A: -2 

   2: 2 

   3: 2 

   4: 2 

   5: 2 

   6: 2 

   7: 1 

   8: 0 

   9: 0 

   T: -2 

QofH: -2 

 

 

Lucky Lady earnings per 100 rounds (per hour): $0.97955 

Wager is made 1.06572 times per 100 rounds (per hour) 

Earnings per Lucky Lady $25 bet actually placed: $0.919141 

Leave the table when true count falls below -99. 

Key Running count (make bet a this running count or higher): 44 

Standard deviation per hand is: $18.8737 

Desirability index for this system: 48.6997 

 

 

TC      %EV     FREQ 

<=0     -32.36  29418061 

1       -28.8   2558953 

2       -27.95  2851906 

3       -28.71  2725396 

4       -28.05  2904722 

5       -27.52  2698485 

6       -27.17  2784411 

7       -27.14  2684986 

8       -26.29  2692535 

9       -26.21  2587433 

10      -25.84  2560679 

11      -24.83  2489935 

12      -24.46  2443314 

13      -24.34  2367096 

14      -23.53  2308921 

15      -23.75  2230090 

16      -23.21  2161085 

17      -22.06  2077852 

18      -21.45  1998344 

19      -20.86  1913531 

20      -20     1826790 

21      -19.85  1743023 

22      -18.95  1649729 

23      -18.66  1564087 

24      -16.68  1475441 

25      -16.88  1388679 

26      -16.05  1299318 

27      -15.39  1214279 

28      -14.32  1130725 

29      -14.47  1047915 

30      -12.58  967111 

31      -11.3   891042 

32      -11.16  816600 

33      -9      743611 

34      -9.44   678037 

35      -8.82   612576 

36      -6.23   553600 

37      -6.61   497203 

38      -5.54   446662 

39      -4.09   398595 

40      -3.79   352794 

41      -3.85   312637 

42      -1.95   275326 

43      -0.37   241152 

44      2.14    211008 

45      0.87    183370 

46      2.29    159395 

47      3.19    136725 

48      4.55    117687 

49      8.2     100101 

50      6.89    85139 

51      7.71    72298 

52      4.31    61068 

53      3.48    51408 

54      7.17    43217

Re: The RC version
Posted by Sohrab on 12-Jun-2003 19:03:05 (#4284)

Thank you. You are so generous.

You are right. RC 22 is very rare I think.

how about......
Posted by suicyco maniac on 11-Jun-2003 16:13:43 (#4261)

The uston APC double deck any 20 4-1 suited 10-1 matched 25-1 2 queens 200-1 with dealers bj 1000-1 side bet limits 1-100$ with the casino maxing out the payout at 20,000. Just curious....

Re: how about......
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Jun-2003 17:47:40 (#4264)

Please email me the whereabouts of this game and I'll send you back the results via email.

teliot@cs.ucsb.edu

Thanks.

Re: how about......
Posted by The Mayor on 12-Jun-2003 10:31:09 (#4274)

The results you are after -- now, please send me this game! This is for a $25 max, at $100, you are making about $40 per hour.

Private email is fine.

 

******************* 

Lucky Ladies Report 

******************* 

Number of decks: 2 

number of hands: 100000000 

Penetration: 66 cards. 

Payoff schedule:  

   Any 20:        4-to-1 

   Suited 20:     10-to-1 

   Matched 20:    25-to-1 

   QH pair:       200-to-1 

   QH pair + BJ:  1000-to-1 

Count system:  

   A: 0 

   2: 1 

   3: 2 

   4: 2 

   5: 3 

   6: 2 

   7: 2 

   8: 1 

   9: -1 

   T: -3 

QofH: -3 

 

 

Lucky Lady earnings per 100 rounds (per hour): $12.6634 

Wager is made 4.48969 times per 100 rounds (per hour) 

Earnings per Lucky Lady $25 bet actually placed: $2.82054 

Leave the table when true count falls below -99. 

Key True count (make bet at this count or higher): 15 

Standard deviation per hand is: $31.6551 

Desirability index for this system: 89.1023 

 

 

TC      %EV     FREQ 

<=0     -33.39  58003115 

1       -23.2   5974264 

2       -21.42  5218113 

3       -19.68  4599638 

4       -17.62  3750689 

5       -16.8   3286154 

6       -14.91  2782073 

7       -13.2   2435544 

8       -11.89  1984351 

9       -9.04   1820475 

10      -7.8    1549359 

11      -7.34   1279136 

12      -5.38   657296 

13      -3.94   1357429 

14      -0.65   811441 

15      0.51    731185 

16      3.37    629259 

17      5.57    450999 

18      6.61    454936 

19      9.03    351967 

20      11.7    329386 

21      13.77   221003 

22      15.01   242752 

23      16.81   202111 

24      20.28   167382 

25      16.96   44366

whats your E-mail address
Posted by suicyco maniac on 12-Jun-2003 16:17:57 (#4280)

Thanks mayor I looked for your e-mail address but couldn,t find it. I really don,t want this game swarming with counters but I guess it would only be fair since you helped me out (I would usually bet it around plus12 with 2Q left and 16 with one)however Lately I have been getting killed on some +30 counts where I get 15 and everyone else gets a 9,10 or ace since the APC counts a 9 as a big one...... one more question how bout 6 deck any 20 4-1 suited 9-1 matched 19-1 2QH 125-1 2Q with dealer bj 1000-1 max payout 20,000 using the ubz2 with the IRC at zero.(for a friend of mine) yes I will give you the details just give me that E-mail. SM

Re: whats your E-mail address
Posted by The Mayor on 12-Jun-2003 17:48:56 (#4281)

teliot@cs.ucsb.edu

In exchange, I will email you back the World's best system against LL.

Thanks!

The Mayor's Journal
Posted by Sonny on 10-Jun-2003 23:55:24 (#4255)

Howdy Mayor. It's been a little quiet around here lately so I thought I'd get the ball rolling.

I was just killing some time and checking out your BJ journal. It almost looks like you started out on a downward slope. Is this just because of deviations, or were you still getting the hang of counting?

You also had a VERY steep plunge later in the journal. If it's not too personal, can you elaborate on how many units this was? There's no indications of scale on the graph anywhere. Also, was your unit size the same throughout the graph?

I'm just curious I guess. I'd like to hear from you and other players about your current BR standing in relation to your highest/lowest point. Good ol' Pete Griffin wrote that a person's BR will only be at its peak around 1% of the time. I'm assuming he's including both falling down from AND winning enough to create a NEW peak point.

Currently my BR is in decent shape. I started out with 20 units and built it up to 800 units playing online (back when bonus offers were much better). From there I had an 70 unit loss in Vegas (my first trip, lots of mistakes), a 60 unit loss in Laughlin (better skills, but worse games), an 80 unit win in Primm (not bad for a 1 day trip!), a 40 unit win in Reno (technically in Sparks), a total of 24 units from various trips here in California (You'll be happy to hear that some was from Chumash), and another 3 unit loss in Vegas.

I'm happy to say that I'm still showing a (small) profit even though I was off to a BAD start. How 'bout everyone else?

-Sonny-

Re: The Mayor's Journal
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Jun-2003 02:40:02 (#4256)

>I was just killing some time and checking out your BJ journal. It almost looks like you started out on a downward slope. Is this just because of deviations, or were you still getting the hang of counting?

Just bad deviation -- honestly, it could have gone down a lot more and still had been normal. The most I was ever in the hole from the day I began the game was $1100.

>You also had a VERY steep plunge later in the journal. If it's not too personal, can you elaborate on how many units this was?

Good noticing. That was the trip from hell, plus one day from another trip -- 4 days in a row each losing over 100 units! Talk about big time sucking! I lost 40% of my BR over those 4 days. But, that is completely normal as well. About a year earlier a good friend told me he was on the trip from hell, and I hoped it would never happen to me... well, you just can't fool the deviation gods.

>There's no indications of scale on the graph anywhere. Also, was your unit size the same throughout the graph?

About midway through my unit size doubled -- you can see that result in terms of the sharper upward/downward spikes.

>I'm just curious I guess. I'd like to hear from you and other players about your current BR standing in relation to your highest/lowest point.

My current BR is about 20 units below my all time high. That's also on the graph. But it has taken a while to get back there.

>Good ol' Pete Griffin wrote that a person's BR will only be at its peak around 1% of the time. I'm assuming he's including both falling down from AND winning enough to create a NEW peak point.

All time peak means that out of every 100 hands you play, only one of them will represent a new all time high -- well, that's in the long run. Me, it feels like significantly less of my hands have been a new all time high than that.

>Currently my BR is in decent shape. I started out with 20 units and built it up to 800 units playing online (back when bonus offers were much better). From there I had an 70 unit loss in Vegas (my first trip, lots of mistakes), a 60 unit loss in Laughlin (better skills, but worse games), an 80 unit win in Primm (not bad for a 1 day trip!), a 40 unit win in Reno (technically in Sparks), a total of 24 units from various trips here in California (You'll be happy to hear that some was from Chumash), and another 3 unit loss in Vegas.

Doesn't sound like much play. Question -- how many hours total in actual casino play? My guess is somewhere between 100 and 150. At that rate, really anything can happen and none of your wins/losses reflect your actual skill level. Give it 500 hours, keep careful records, then reflect a bit.

>I'm happy to say that I'm still showing a (small) profit even though I was off to a BAD start. How 'bout everyone else?

Good going. I like it when people take money from casinos.

Cheers!

--Mayor

Re: The Mayor's Journal
Posted by Sonny on 11-Jun-2003 11:34:32 (#4258)

>The most I was ever in the hole from the day I began the game was $1100.

That's encouraging. I can only hope that my biggest drop will be about the same. Only time will tell.

>That was the trip from hell, plus one day from another trip -- 4 days in a row
>each losing over 100 units! Talk about big time sucking! I lost 40% of my BR
>over those 4 days.

See, now THAT'S the kind of thing that I'm preparing for but hoping not to see anytime soon! Instead of "two steps forward, one step back" it feels more like a stagerring drunkard!

>My current BR is about 20 units below my all time high. That's also on the
>graph. But it has taken a while to get back there.

With all the "ups and downs" of Blackjack, it's always nice to hear that people can actually earm money from it (in the end). As a red-chipper (dropping down to silver when I can) I often find myself ruthlessly fighting for just a few bucks. The times that I finally get the chance to throw out a few greens are usually the few hands that decide my fate.

>Doesn't sound like much play...At that rate, really anything can happen and
>none of your wins/losses reflect your actual skill level. Give it 500 hours,
>keep careful records, then reflect a bit.

Yeah, my total playing time is still under 100 hours. That's why I was curious about other people's experiences. Obviously it will be different for everyone, but I still like to hear the stories. I'd also like to know how far above/below their starting point everyone's BR is.

-Sonny-

Re: The Mayor's Journal
Posted by suicyco maniac on 11-Jun-2003 16:09:46 (#4260)

Just a couple of weeks ago I watched my bank drop by 720 units in no time flat. (I posted some of the details on ap.com) I have since won back about 500 units. This game can have huge swings like that. It is very important to play only in good games and to be heavily bankrolled. Since you asked about long term yes I am up long term and even short term if you consider just this year to be short term I am up close to 5,000 units this year alone.

Re: The Mayor's Journal
Posted by wong out on 13-Jun-2003 19:55:29 (#4286)

Damn:

In my experience swings of 400-500 units happen pretty often (say every 150 hours or so). Right now on a close to 200 hr hour and even; if I stretch the results back abit then right on track. You cant let the wins/losses worry or excite you. Just keep firing away at the best game and you'll get yours (assuming that you dont get broke, bored, marry rich, barred everywhere etc.)

wong out

Re: The Mayor's Journal
Posted by wong out on 13-Jun-2003 20:12:25 (#4287)

BTW:

It is not unreasonable (although not likely) to be down after even 500 hours of play depending on the game. Play around with the random walk feature of the BJRM program and you will get the idea. A "humbling experience" as Don S would say. Last week I was putting the screws to my favorite haunt and was up nicely in a couple of hours of play (somewhere in the 10-20 range). Anyhow pissed me off since the place was empty so I boogeyed a few times to preserve my longevity there. Came back a few hours later (different shift etc) and gave half back; dont worry. Only regret was getting in about 70% of the planned hours due to a few big shoes where I felt it was better to leave rather than playing on and starting the fresh shoe low again.

Oh well need to get some rest now since I have a planned date with lady luck in the am.....

wong out

More on the journal
Posted by The Mayor on 23-Jun-2003 10:09:29 (#4317)

Just got back from a 7 day trip -- see the journal.

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