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Threads 751 to 780

My Vegas Trip
Posted by NorCalBJ on 10-Nov-2003 17:10:32 (#5325)

Hey guys. Just thought I'd tell you about my Vegas trip last weekend and once again thank everyone for their friendly advice.
We arrived at Vegas at 3:00 in the morning on Saturday. We went downtown and entered the Horseshoe as we are both poker players and wanted to see the home of the WS of Poker.
We also noticed the BJ tables. DOA, single deck, 5 min. H17 sucked but the penetration was good.
We ended up playing for 8hrs straight until 11am. We couldn't check in anywhere until noon anyway.
I bought in 150 dollars and after about 2hrs had lost it all. I played $5 units and spread 1-4. Just nothing would go right. I decided to buy in another 100, confident in my ability. After I lost about 30 more dollars I got red hot. We were getting very good penetration when it was just my buddy and me playing against the dealer. I started getting BJ's on my big bets and before I knew it I had about $450 in chips in front of me.
But here is the best part of the whole trip for me. I had all those red chips in poker like stacks in a pyramid in front of me. The pit bosses came over for their usual tray count and asked me to sell some of my reds to them. I had too many and they were running out. I know they could have gotten more elsewhere, but I am small time with not a lot of experience and I thought it was cool that they asked me for some of their chips back. Nice memory for me.
I ended up cashing out around 400 dollars. Eight hours of play and 150 dollars profit made me very happy considering the small size of my weekend bankroll.
The next night we played poker all night and I won about 55 dollars. Then the day we left we played more single deck BJ and I won about 40 more dollars in a couple of hours.
I had a really good time and came home ahead of Vegas! Very nice weekend for me. Just thought I'd share my good time.

Congratulation but �,
Posted by Alex on 11-Nov-2003 15:29:59 (#5343)

Congratulation but �,

No matter how much you won, you made a big mistake playing at 3:00AM after arriving there. It seems to me that you drove all night to get there and after all that driving you played for 8 hours. This is pushing the envelope to hard! Regardless if you won of lost $$, the point is that you have to be in top shape(physically and mentally) when you play.

Usually when you are tired you lose patience and cannot take negative swings. Because you feel sleepy and tired you �want� to get your money back right away and this is the biggest mistake an AP can make. This is the most dangerous attitude. An accomplished card counter with experience will NEVER lose unless he is over betting his bank and that happen in two instances: 1) When you are behind and tired and want your money back right away. 2) You simply are overconfident in your abilities and start to over bet your units. So, in both instances the over betting is the universal downfall. Practically there are no other reasons why a AP/CC will ever lose.

I, for myself, play at my best in the morning after a good night sleep or after a 2-3 hours nap in the afternoon. You have to know how your body/mind reacts to events when you�re tired. You probably didn�t feel tired because of the excitement of being in Vegas. But, is nothing spectacular of being in Vegas. Just don�t pay attention to the surroundings and concentrate on your mission of being there. You should be there to make money. Period.

Think like a pro: You are in a mental competition with the casino. You have to be able to manipulate the game with your mind. BJ is a mathematical game with numbers and you should be in top shape before you sit down and play.

AlexD30

Re: Congratulation but �,
Posted by Sonny on 12-Nov-2003 11:21:00 (#5361)

> Usually when you are tired you lose patience and cannot take negative swings.
> Because you feel sleepy and tired you �want� to get your money back right
> away and this is the biggest mistake an AP can make. This is the most
> dangerous attitude.

This is how I ALWAYS feel :)

That's why I don't like shoe games as much. You finally get a high count, you push out the big bets, and they all disappear. Now your stuck and you have to "trade chips" with the deaer while waiting for the next high count. If you're a Wonger, that means the end of a session and back on your feet. I guess that's one of the blessings of being a BP on a team: Nothing but hand signals and high counts.

As far as sleep goes, Alex is right. When I am tired my eyes get irritated (especially in smokey casinos) and my mind slows down. I start to miscount hand totals or forget index numbers. Vegas can often give you a burst of excitement, but it is a false confidence. Although you feel awake and alert, your mind is not performing at a level high enough to be counting cards. If you are not playing a winning game, then you are losing.

These are just my personal experiences, but I think it is important for every player to know his or her warning signs and to quit before they become overwhelming.

-Sonny-

Re: My Vegas Trip
Posted by Learning to count on 11-Nov-2003 15:31:22 (#5344)

You did great. You were fortunate to get away playing at the HS. They are nervous and sweaty with all their financiel problems. Great fun report!

RoR Questions???
Posted by phantom007 on 10-Nov-2003 19:17:52 (#5329)

I am trying to further my studies and understanding of the game of BJ, I still have trouble grasping RoR (Risk of Ruin).

I had always considered RoR as "REVERSE PLOPPINESS", i.e., those playing a Neg. Expectation game...players do get ahead (for a short-to-medium term), despite the best intent of mathematics. In other words, one could play to advantage, yet still lose, during the short-medium term.

Case in point, I know members of a Professional Slot Team...they make fun of my "sweating the cards", when "ALL One has to do is watch a bank of machines for 8-10 hours, then PLAY the ones that have not hit during said time-frame". Certainly, this "Team" is ahead over the last 2 years by about $40K...approx. 10X by net positivity (of course, ALL of my ploppy remissions into the land of Craps and Progressive BJ is included in MY total).

As I have stated previously, I do not PERSONALLY like "front-Wonging", i.e. watching shoe after shoe, entering play only at Positive situations. But mathematical facts aside, even IF said slot team was onto something, which I know they are not....I AIN'T GOING TO WONG A BANK OF SLOTS FOR 8-10 HOURS!

Question #1: Is my grasp of the basic principle of RoR correct?

Question #2: How does Spread affect RoR...for example only, LV Strip DD, 4:1

vs. 8:1?

Question #3: Does RoR presume ALL winnings are placed back into the Bankroll?

Question #4: The Mayor recently posted a statement: "Playing full Kelly gives

one a 13% RoR". Please explain...I thought the whole idea behind

Kelly was to decrease RoR?

Thanks to ALL in advance for answer(s) and/or advice. Will simply request all to keep the answers SIMPLE...ah' did good in algebra and trig, but Calculus sent me to grad school...calculus grades so BAD, my GPA needed grad school to amend!

phantom007.

Re: RoR Questions???
Posted by Learning to count on 10-Nov-2003 19:44:35 (#5330)

My meager math ignorant understanding of ROR is that your bet size has dependant on your bank roll size. If you play at a high ror you have a certain percent RISK of losing your bank roll. For example if I had a $5k bank roll with a 1-30 spread at a nickle, six deck game, LV Strip rules my ror is close to 13%-15%. This is too high for a 5K BR. A spread of 1-5 would give me a 3-5 % ROR. Which is a lower percent rate of ruin. With the proper BAnk Roll you could play at a low ROR making bets in the black chip range. The bank roll would have to be large over $250 K. This is play all. A good ROR to play at is 2%. BJRM is the software to have. It takes the guessing out of bet size, ror, proper bank roll etc etc.. My estimates are off the top of my head. I in my humble knowledge/oppinion hope that my understanding is correct! Its back to the books for me! LTC

Re: RoR Questions???
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 10-Nov-2003 20:37:44 (#5332)

Question #1: Is my grasp of the basic principle of RoR correct?
I don't know. RoR is the % chance you have of going broke before you double your money. Want about a 50% RoR? Bet your entire bankroll on 1 hand. You either double or go broke. If that is your basic grasp, then you got it.

Question #2: How does Spread affect RoR...for example only, LV Strip DD, 4:1
vs. 8:1?

Bigger spread makes for larger variance, which means a bigger chance of going broke, but it also means a bigger chance of making more money. Computer programs like BJRM figure out which is better and where the balance point is. Smaller spread, less variance but you are more likely to get ground down by the house edge.

Question #3: Does RoR presume ALL winnings are placed back into the Bankroll?
Yes. If you are drawing out of your winnings, then you aren't really playing with as large a bankroll as you think.

Question #4: The Mayor recently posted a statement: "Playing full Kelly gives
one a 13% RoR". Please explain...I thought the whole idea behind Kelly was to decrease RoR?
Nope. Kelly is maximizing your profits without going broke. Most people are willing to leave a little profit on the table, to lessen the chance of going broke, and therefore play a fraction of Kelly (1/2 kelly, 1/4 kelly, etc.)
Classic Kelly assumes resizing your bet size to your bankroll at each bet. Therefore, you would be rasing/lowering your bet with each $1 won or lost. You would also be making bets like $23.475 or $11.298. Since in real life, their is an upper and lower limit to what you can bet, bets usually have to be in at least $5 increments, and you won't resize your bet levels until you either go completely broke or double, you have 13% ROR instead of 0% betting full Kelly.

Re: RoR Questions???
Posted by FLA Player on 11-Nov-2003 12:17:57 (#5334)

A good book to read is "Blackjack Attack" 2nd ed. regarding ROR and to get BJRM as mentioned by LTC

A good generalization (not ROR, but a good guideline) is to have a BR of 100 max bets (if your max bet is $25 you'd have $2500) and to only play in positive counts-

FLA Player

Re: RoR Questions???
Posted by Learning to count on 11-Nov-2003 15:21:45 (#5341)

100 bets...that may be a little low. I play with a minimum of 1000 bets in my bank roll. If its red its $5000 minimum!

Losing Streak
Posted by Anonymous on 11-Nov-2003 13:22:38 (#5336)

The game is killing me. I mean that almost literally.

Once again, my entire trip bankroll was washed away, after being up (sometimes way up) for the first 800 hours, I am now a lifetime loser in advantage play (not counting online activities). I came pretty near throwing up when it was all finally gone. I logged about 11 hours of play in my last trip to Las Vegas. I am done playing for a little while. I have hit the point where I cannot mentally or financially handle more losses. I haven't been sleeping well, and my overall mental state has declined to an unsociable level where I need to step out of the game for a little while.

I figure that my expected value after the last 70 hours I've played is around 12,000 dollars. My actual result is -23k. I did have about a 2 hour window where I finally felt like I was in control of the game. My losses were minimal, I recovered about 3.5k of the previous night's 4k loss. I sat down for one final session and lose 4.5k in 20 minutes.

I am trying to remain objective about the whole issue. I know I'm not talking like a smart guy, but the numbers are so far in the red that I'm beyond reason and logic.

My future plans are to sort of develope a bankroll again. I think I may need to engage in some team play for lower stakes in the game. Team play reduces the variance and plows towards the long run faster. For now though, it's time to take a break.

-Anon

Re: Losing Streak
Posted by wong out on 11-Nov-2003 13:48:38 (#5338)

Well spoken words. I think that taking a time out is the best strategy at this point if you are at the point where the inevitable losses are affecting you. When you come back consider lowering your bet size so that the swings dont affect you so much. I suspect that you may have been overbetting; to maintain a 150/hr ev requires a decent spread into the midblack range depending on the game. When spreading black a -23K loss is no big deal; happens all the time and is to be expected. Good luck and lower the bets to a level that you are more comfortable with.

wong out - btw there is nothing wrong with hanging up the gloves either. There is nothing particularly about being a successful 21 player and all succesful players that I know can usually make more in other fields than 21.

You definitely have OVERBET your bank
Posted by Alex on 11-Nov-2003 14:16:46 (#5339)

You definitely have OVERBET your bank because the numbers don�t add up.

If you lost $4,500 in 20 minutes or the equivalent of 33 hands that is about $136 average per round to lost. Your average bet obviously was much bigger then $136. This alone it tells me that you grossly and dangerously over bet your bankroll.

Now, for 33 hands that where in the last 20 minutes, the standard deviation is 1.1*sqrt(33) = +/- 6.32 average bets plus your expectation. Even if we consider that your expectation was only one average bet per hour we still have here 4.5 or a little more standard deviations from the norm. That is the result of OVERBETING! If you over bet your bank you will lose the edge no matter how good of a player you are. The number of units of your bank plays an important role in your final edge. You cannot overbet that bank no matter what.

What was your bank, unit and your average bet?

AlexD30

Not the point
Posted by Frozen thanks to Jacob the Jeweler on 11-Nov-2003 17:05:48 (#5345)

You're probably right but try not to get too caught up in the numbers. The point of the post is the sagging losses that can occur. Not everything in the post is exactly as it seems.

Re: Not the point
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Nov-2003 18:10:26 (#5347)

Well put ...

I know the poster and know that there are some details that must be unstated. However, the truth the poster is passing on to us is that no matter how good the opportunity, incredibly bad fortune can come to pass -- and it is not easy to deal with, no matter how strong you think you are.

--Mayor

If they don�t get you in the beginning then they will not get you at all!
Posted by Alex on 11-Nov-2003 19:49:02 (#5348)

The term of the long run in blackjack has got to be understood by any aspiring player that engage serious money into this game. I will define the pro�s way of what the long run is and you can use the same method to evaluate your play/results that will tell you where are you at into this game. One definition will be to look at the expected long run, and the other is looking back at your $$ results to find where are you at and if you hit the point of no return.

The long run is when your expected return, minus a 1.96 x One standard deviation still results in a positive outcome. In other words, enough hours where your overall winnings falls within 95% confidence interval.

Now, a practical definition would be: If you graph 250 hours outcomes by trips/sessions, the point on your graph with an upward drift where the first bottom of a negative swing remains in the positive area of the graph could be considered hitting the long run for a pro player. When at that point you can be assured that you are at the point of no return into the negative/red regardless of the temporarily losing streaks.

In my previous posts I mention quite a lot about 3 standard deviation but I did so because I realize that most of people here are not at the pro level yet. So, a 3 standard deviation is in order to be on the safe side. But, for a pro player we consider that 1.96 x One standard deviations is suffice to tell him that he is within 95% confidence. That in itself is the equivalent of 1 in 20 and that is the pro standard to evaluate your play and find out where you are at.

Practical numbers to work with: If you have 250 hours or 25,000 hands of quality play, then your expected value is going to start to have a very significant impact. After that many hours, a 95% confidence interval would be more useful and informative and will tell you where you are at.
Now, 1StDev(25,000) = 1.1*sqrt(25,000) = +/- 174. The 95% confidence interval is the equivalent of 1.96 standard deviations. So, in our case will be 174*1.96 =+/- 341 average units. If you play with 1.5% edge then your EV = 25,000*1.5% = 375 average units. You can see that your expectation will overcome 1.96 standard deviations and position yourself within 95% confidence interval way over and on very solid positive territory. If your $$ results are positive you confidently can evaluate yourself with 95% certainty that you have at least a 1.5% edge into this game. Practically you are on your way up forever or as long as you play a quality game and do not OVERBET your bank. As you keep accumulating hours of play you will reach a point that even a 0.60% edge will keep you going regardless of what temporarily may happen. Losing streaks or not you cannot lose anymore.

If they don�t get you in the beginning then they will not get you at all!

AlexD30

Re: If they don�t get you in the beginning then they will not get you at all!
Posted by Sonny on 12-Nov-2003 12:15:55 (#5363)

> Now, 1StDev(25,000) = 1.1*sqrt(25,000) = +/- 174. The 95% confidence interval
> is the equivalent of 1.96 standard deviations. So, in our case will be
> 174*1.96 =+/- 341 average units. If you play with 1.5% edge then your EV =
> 25,000*1.5% = 375 average units. You can see that your expectation will
> overcome 1.96 standard deviations and position yourself within 95% confidence
> interval way over and on very solid positive territory.

And it all fits so nicely into a spreadsheet!

> When at that point you can be assured that you are at the point of no return
> into the negative/red regardless of the temporarily losing streaks...
> As you keep accumulating hours of play you will reach a point that even a
> 0.60% edge will keep you going regardless of what temporarily may happen.
> Losing streaks or not you cannot lose anymore.

Ah sweet safety, it's only two standard deviations away...most of the time! And after only 250 hours too. That's less than 1.5 months of full time play! All I nedd now is a bankroll :(

Great post. Good to see you back Alex. This is a new twist on S.D. that I think a lot of people will understand.

-Sonny-

You cannot play at the pro level on 8 hours per day
Posted by Alex on 12-Nov-2003 17:14:46 (#5376)

Well, the 250 hours of play are not to be accomplished in 1.5 months. You cannot play at the pro level on 8 hours per day. If you do that you will be playing less optimal. It is extremely hard to remain sharp 8 hours per day when you do it day after day after day.. etc. I would say, from my experience, that probably two sessions per day of 2 hours each is the most optimal schedule and that for only 5 day a week. So, to reach 250 hours you probably can do as a solo player in 3.5 to 4 months.

Now, you really don�t need yet a bankroll because if you get one you probably will lose it. What you need is practice to become a pro. You need a small bank that has the equivalent of 2 standard deviations in it. As you know by now, One standard deviation of 25,000 is 174, so a bankroll of 350 average bets will do the job. Get $2,500 practice money. You have there 500 units or a little more then 350 average bets. Play as a pro but with red chips that has # 5 imprinted on ($5 each). Do not get emotionally attached to the chips. We need chips to keep the score. Makes no difference what chips you play with. Play like you would play into the big BJ league with pink or yellow chips that has #500 on it and see if you can pull 1.96 standard deviations and show a profit in 3 months. If you can do that you have a clear picture where you are at. You will get a lot of experience and discipline along the way. What you are looking at is the number of chips at the end and then you can figure what is your average per hour. If you can make 3 chips per hour or 1.5 average bets per hour then you know for sure that you are about at 1.5% edge.

AlexD30

My apologies!
Posted by Learning to count on 11-Nov-2003 18:09:59 (#5346)

Sorry anonymous I thought you were a past troller named piui. The Mayor set me straight! You need to take a break. You losses were devastating. I know I could not handle that kind of loss. Stop look and listen to your own heart. You need a break. Your skill can turn into addiction. You as any one here can admit that we can chase our losses and get hurt much worse! Please calm down take a break the game will always be there. Examine your game and learn from it.

what kind of game,what kind of counting
Posted by eyes for 21 on 11-Nov-2003 19:54:29 (#5349)

its all different and suited for different styles.
its easy to say one word answers like overbetting your
br,but maybe you did not maybe your play is better
suited for dbl deck.

Maybe the next time you go to a casino set your win
goals very low,and protect your profit, so you do not
give it back,sure it doesn't make any matamatical
sense but we all know it happens.

I've been there!
Posted by SammyBoy on 11-Nov-2003 21:43:52 (#5353)

Take a break it will do you good. Be thankful for all the good things in your life. The pain of losing heals in time, and you will be stronger emotionally next time out if you decide to give it another shot. Good luck to you.

First Time Out
Posted by SammyBoy on 11-Nov-2003 21:57:25 (#5354)

I tried out my new counting system recently and am very pleased with the results! I am especially proud of my performance. I was able to keep the count without any problems. I had serious doubts when I first started learning AOII, but the hard work has payed off. A few more weeks of playing and practicing and I will be ready to attack the Chumash! :-)

Re: First Time Out
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 11-Nov-2003 23:33:41 (#5355)

I was wondering how you were doing. Sounds like you�re on board now. Once your brain gets retrained, it comes together pretty fast. Sometimes I'm afraid that the AOII works all too well especially when a pit critter is standing there talking to me + watching how I'm betting. It's the side C of A's and the bet adjustment therefrom which really kicks Azz. I find myself having to come up with excuses and quirky acts for my giant bets on 2 hands with faces and aces spread all over the table, and no less the players are hootin' and hollerin' too. :-))))))) What were you playing? How fast was the D?

Stealth

Hey MVB, it's startin' to payoff for SammyBoy. ;-) *NM*
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 12-Nov-2003 00:33:51 (#5356)

Re: First Time Out
Posted by SammyBoy on 12-Nov-2003 09:00:06 (#5358)

Wassup Stealth,

I was playing mostly DD, the dealer was pretty fast, but the ploppies move slow enough to where I have plenty of time to see all the cards. I was even playing multiple hands with no problems, well I guess the only problem was when Billy Bob Ploppy got pissed because I was alternating from one to two hand in the middle of the shoe and possibly messing up the flow of the cards. He complained to the dealer and he said as long as I started the shoe with 2 hands I could drop to one and then go back to 2 all night long (no midshoe allowed). I had the best win rate per hour of my career as a counter, over $200 per hour. This was the first time I had ever played multiple hands for any length of time and it really paid off.

Re: The big payoff
Posted by Sonny on 12-Nov-2003 12:47:16 (#5364)

> A few more weeks of playing and practicing and I will be ready to attack the
> Chumash! :-)

Good work! The AOII is a little tricky with shoe games, but with a little practice you will be able to track all the aces you need. I use Hi-Opt II myself, so I can feel your pain. I agree with Stealth that the side count helps out a lot. You will start to see the increased accuracy right away.

If you get up to speed in the next two months, maybe I'll see you at Chumash! Maybe you could teach ME how to average $200/hour too!

-Sonny-

Hi Sonny
Posted by SammyBoy on 12-Nov-2003 13:58:21 (#5368)

If you get up to speed in the next two months, maybe I'll see you at Chumash! Maybe you could teach ME how to average $200/hour too!

If only I could average that over a few thousand hours, LOL. It's nice when standard deviation smiles upon you.

I was afraid it would be a bad day when I first sat down. I was down 25 units within the first hour. Ploppies were dropping like flies while I managed to survive the casino's massive frontal attack. Using a magnificent flanking maneuver the battle began to turn and the chip tray was emptying fast. At this point I had a huge bulge in my pants, of green and black chips. Ploppy casualties were massive, some tried to return to the fray, but with me and Billy Bob Ploppy ( a late comer to the action) playing multiple spots there was no room left on the battlefield. All the loser ploppies could do was hang their heads and wonder "what if." It was a great day in the war of Good versus Evil.

Where is ZG when You Need Him?
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 12-Nov-2003 13:35:02 (#5366)

I do remember how much he enjoyed saying the CCC is dead, long live the Mayor's site. Now he would be saying BJF onLine is dead, long live the Mayor's site. Although I know he loves AS. I think he might be pissed that he is working for AC at his site. It appears that all the big boys pulled the plug on AC and left him hanging. Who knows? I think it is intriguing what makes a board appealing to people, and then again what turns them off a site, and how quickly, or slowly it happens. I think the truly genius board members are just watching, smiling, and taking it all in. In fact I know some that do just that. BJ microcosms. In some way, it tells us all why we are hear, and how we fit into the big picture. A giver? A taker? A watcher? A teacher? A learner? All of these? None of these?

BJF *LINK*
Posted by Kevin Blackwood on 12-Nov-2003 14:44:12 (#5371)

What is happening to BJFOnline? Didn't know it was shutting down.

Re: BJF
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 12-Nov-2003 15:00:33 (#5372)

They are probably all here:

http://www.c21media.net/news/detail.asp?area=74&article=18156

Re: Where is ZG when You Need Him?
Posted by Learning to count on 12-Nov-2003 15:27:10 (#5373)

Hey Rob what the hell are you talking about anyway. ZG went up river a year ago. BJF is still alive and still part of Anthony Curtis' empire. So what gives? Clarify please.

Re: Where is ZG when You Need Him?
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 12-Nov-2003 20:01:15 (#5378)

I never said it was shutting down. I think Kevin did, but I haven't heard that. I am a reg there and recently Cellini went kaput, then all the big names went bye byes. Neither the CCC or BJF is dead. We the players keep things alive, with or without the big wigs. Hell you are a big wig around here LTC! smile

Okay *LINK*
Posted by Kevin Blackwood on 12-Nov-2003 20:06:43 (#5379)

Rob, thanks for the clarification. I must have misunderstood someone along the line there. Their site has a lot of great info and does a true service to the BJ community, despite some of the vicious flame wars.

Re: Okay
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 12-Nov-2003 20:20:28 (#5382)

The fight Club really does help to contain these people that have to get nasty, and it is good to have it so you can pop in and out from board to board. I do like the set up, tho recently after their last crash it has screwed everything up over there, which had an imediate effect on player participation. The FC simply verifies that all men were created equal, and that it has taken some of them half a life time to get really stupid and nasty. Time well spent for some of them I'm sure. Hopefully time on their PC will keep them away from their families which should give them some breathing space. ;>

Once again, proving that there is good in everything,

Rob

Travel channel/top 10 ways to win
Posted by Victoria on 13-Nov-2003 14:09:33 (#5396)

Last night I watched a show on the travel channel called something like the Top Ten Ways To Win in Vegas.
Some of the ten were good but perhaps in the wrong order. Some were hokey like the witch doing her thing to the slot machine. What hit me was that they listed, learn how to count cards as #2. They gave a very basic glance at counting and why it works but it makes me wonder what effect mainstream tv shows will have. Also I was under the opinion that casinos had something to do with the production of all these vegas type shows that show up on the travel channel.
Will the casinos get a boost in profit from a bunch of new wanna be counters who do not understand indices or spread? Will the casinos get doubly paranoid thinking that there will be hoardes of advantage players breaking down their doors and cleaning out their banks? Will those CSM machines show up at every table?
Personally, I like the idea of advantage play being a small, not really understood group that can take a piece of profit but is not mainstream enough to make the casino industry really feel threatened. On the other hand, every bookstore in the country has books that can teach Joe Ploppy but he just does not make the effort.

Victoria

Re: Travel channel/top 10 ways to win
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 13-Nov-2003 14:53:49 (#5399)

It is more or less TV propaganda, twisting the truth to sell air time, and that is it. I agree, I too like the underdog minority feel to being an AP. By remaining a semi-silent minority we can continue our attacks. We have to be able to contact each other and communicate, and at the same time protect ourselves. A hacker is a silent minority, but can do so much damage with the right knowledge and tools. They do a show on hacking and every fiendish child wants to be one. But one of them will be able to do it, make it work. Then everything goes up a notch. Like 6:5 BJ and CSM's. We are the virus to the casino. A virus living of a much bigger virus that some call entertainment, and others call a social nightmare.

The Las Vegas Channel....
Posted by Learning to count on 14-Nov-2003 07:15:29 (#5406)

....more silly ploppy nonsense.

If card counting was #2, what was #1? *NM*
Posted by Sonny on 14-Nov-2003 10:50:47 (#5415)

Know when to quit
Posted by Victoria on 14-Nov-2003 11:07:42 (#5416)

Know when to quit was #1 and for me it is a hard one to argue with. Either a lucky ploppy or an AP, there is always a good time to leave. Recognizing it though can be hard.
When fatigue is setting in
When the heat is being turned up.
When you have won much more than normal
When you have lost so much that even though you know the math, a break is a good idea.
When your significant other is going to kill you for playing too much BJ.

I might be able to fill this whole board with other reasons, but I think they picked a good one for #1.
I was surprised that something as basic to survival as knowing the best games, was down around #9, less important than using your superstitions???

Terminology questions???
Posted by new to casinos on 13-Nov-2003 15:09:01 (#5400)

I am wondering if somebody could spell out some of this terminology for me? I play BJ by the basic strategy and have learned to count by the Hi-Lo method, but I don't hit the tables much right now. I thought about waiting until I got a little better at both. I am having a little trouble with some of the acronyms and other terms used used here though...like "AP" and especially the spread. I could probably take a guess, but I'd rather not be wrong about them. Can somebody spell this out for me?

Re: Terminology questions???
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 13-Nov-2003 16:10:37 (#5401)

AP = Advantage Player, ie. one who plays with an advantage. Since a lot of counters do more than count, and some find ways to beat other games, Advantage Player is a broader term than card counter.

Spread = the amount you bet in negative advantage situations VS the max amount you bet in highly advantageous situations. Avoids the issue of wonging, where you are betting Zero in negative situations so a broader term would be the amount between your smallest to largest bet. If you bet $5 off the top of the deck and when the count is negative, and max out at $50 when the count is +6, then you are spreading 1:10.

Re: Terminology questions???
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 13-Nov-2003 18:12:44 (#5402)

Mayor, It would be a nice addition if you could add to the site a BJ Glossary of abbreviations, terms, slang, etc. It would especially help the newbies get caught up to speed.

Stealth

Glossary @ BJ21.com??? *NM*
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 13-Nov-2003 21:38:13 (#5403)

Here is
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 14-Nov-2003 10:20:32 (#5410)

the one I use for teaching up and coming Blackjack Professionals:

http://www.dictionaryofgambling.com/gambling_terms/blackjack/a/

I'll Betcha This Black One?!
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 14-Nov-2003 01:08:25 (#5404)

Anybody ever tried to work in a little side betting with the players on each side? For example: Dealer�s showing an ace and some know-it-all ploppy says, �He�s gotta have it this time, I�M TAKIN� INSURANCE!� so happens that the C is in the frigid zone. �� I smell an opportunity! ;-) It�s even more fun when you don�t like the person. 8-)

�I�ll betcha a 100 bucks he doesn�t have it!� ��.. Or if the T C is about 10 or better and then I�m saying the following: �I�ll betcha a 100 bucks he has it!�

Only difficulty is that I just can�t seem to bring myself to use this one on somebody I like.

Stealth

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!
Posted by Learning to count on 14-Nov-2003 08:22:06 (#5407)

Do you ever play. I dont recall seeing any trip reports from you. How about some meat and potato posts. Your theory posts are top notch but how about some in the trenches stuff.

Re: ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 14-Nov-2003 09:46:46 (#5408)

Okay, okay. Yah, I play about 1 time per about every 2 weeks. Problem is I live to far from anywhere good. I'm 86 at the local. Thin ice at another. Can't say too much. Have some probs to work out. However, did travel last weekend some. All I found was 6D and bad pen. Played 30 hours for 3 days. Was ahead about $1200 but left at the end at 247 up. I know, I'm stupid to play a bad game. Couldn't believe how many times I had 2 big bets with awesome hands and the D pulls absolute miracles for the house. Totally f'ing unbelievable even for the fact that I have seen just about everything. Just wanted to play though. Anyway, need also to work out some issues in the personal life. Doesn't matter that I am making some money. Just not making enough to invest so many hours w/BJ and not in my stable business. Women can be tough on a world-class player ��in the making. Gonna have to have more balance or I'm gonna be out crusin for another lady. Gotta move too, otherwise I'm going to have to continue fighting to many huge battles. I should probably take a break from it 'til I move. My family thinks I�m compulsive. I show them wads of Ben Franklins. I�m 14k ahead to date this year. I feel I just need a little boost though to get me over the hump. Larger bankroll, precision math at the tables, personal life more balanced and better places to play.

I'll tell more when I can. Thanks all. This site helps me to keep my head on somewhat straight. Now I guess I�m getting computer compulsive too. A man just can do anything he wants anymore. :-(

Stealth

Control
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 14-Nov-2003 10:14:47 (#5409)

You should WANT to control your WANTS and DESIRES. Like math protects over your bankroll, so too should you over yourself. Harmony of mind, body, soul, and bankroll. In the I Ching, the eagles foot clutches over her egg to protect it. See that picture, be that picture.

Won Lung Man

Roger that. Thanks for the reminder Rob *NM*
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 14-Nov-2003 10:31:22 (#5411)

Re: I'll Betcha This Black One?!
Posted by SammyBoy on 14-Nov-2003 10:38:57 (#5412)

It's a great idea, but I have not figured out a way to do it without attracting too much attention. Since IMO most ploppies do not take insurance (except when they also have BJ) I think it would be easier in a high count to say "I have a really strong feeling that the dealer has BJ this time, do you mind if I insure your bet?" But I would not do it more than a few times and would also not do it if the pit is watching.

Re: I'll Betcha This Black One?!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 14-Nov-2003 10:44:57 (#5414)

That works, but the big edge is elseware. Like DD and SP for high limit tables where certain players are afraid to DD or SP. Don't bet against any player at the table. I think that is actually against the law. There is no law that says they have to pay you if you win. Make sure you both understand what will happen when you DD and SP with them. Those have been my biggest AP's in a casino so far. Besides finding a blackie on the black part of the carpet. ;>

Re: I'll Betcha This RED One?!
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 14-Nov-2003 12:00:55 (#5417)

I usually suck 'em in little by little. i.e. "Betcha this red one the D doesn't have it!" If the D somehow has it with the negitive C, great! the other guy just got your 5 bucks. Now your set up for the kill on all the future opportunities for bigger $. ;-)
Stealth

Re: I'll Betcha This RED One?!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 14-Nov-2003 12:17:54 (#5418)

Or the big reneg after he has won 50 or so from you already. Careful here. The casino will not take kindly to you guys starting your own P2P betting up in front of them, and will not give a flip about a reneg'd bet. Place all bets against the house. THEY are your enemy. If you like eating peoples livers go jump into a game of poker where everyone has sharks teeth. The house doesn't care there since they get your ante. Then you can bet who has what for a hole card.

Player vs player, blackjack blackmail
Posted by Victoria on 14-Nov-2003 17:00:31 (#5425)

Sorry if this gets a little long.
About 1 1/2 years ago I was at my favorite vegas place, on a $25 table and noticed that they were giving just about all their $5 tables a fill of yellow, $1,000 chips. They have this player, loud beer drinking big guy who won a lottery or something and had a credit line of a couple million. He likes playing the $5 table and the house takes the limit signs off for him. He also constantly bounces from table to table, leaving chips behind, taking markets at every table, tips sometimes in the thousands per hand, drives the pit boss crazy and according to the dealers is the most beloved person in the universe. The guy was a real show, moving around, hitting hard 17 against a dealer 8, getting pissed at the dealer so he bets $100 for himself and $1,000 for the dealer and challenges her to give him a stiff now. He goes to the men's room comes back and yells as loud as he can to the pit boss, "where was I playing?"
A dealer friend of mine told me that when he showed up (about twice a year), her mortgage was handled for the next few months.
He was not at my table but having a tough night I decided that I should go for some entertainment and moved to a $5 table hoping he would show up there. He did. He also likes to place money under your bet if he thinks your lucky. I had a $50 bet out and he places $5,000 under it looking at me and asking if it is alright. Don't you know, I get a pair 9's, dealer has an 8, count, well with that guy I had lost the count a few hands earlier. Then it hits me, pressure based upon his bet. I ask him if he wants to split and he says, "do whatever the hell you want." so I do and thankfully we win but that is not the real player ultimate.
A woman at the table with a ten dollar bet of her own and about $10,000 of his money under it, gets blackjack. She tells him to pay her $1,000 or she will double down and he is mad. The pit boss is right there (the boss ignored any table this guy was not at understandably}, and flat out told him that it is the woman's hand and she has a right to play it any way she wanted. He paid her, she left, he continued on and still put money under people's bets.
My understanding was that he lost something near 900,000 and more than 25% of it was tokes.
I only go to vegas two or three times a year but doubt I will ever see a show like that again.
I guess I should ask if anyone else ever saw a case of blackjack blackmail

Re: Player vs player, blackjack blackmail
Posted by eyes for 21 on 14-Nov-2003 17:07:26 (#5427)

Yes he was at the shoe last week and was playing crazy
alright,which is grand for the real players. He
won the lottery and is a gambling fiend.

Another chap was going from 25 to 1000,then 500 then 100 allover
the place nice to see this kind of action

Re: Player vs player, blackjack blackmail
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 14-Nov-2003 20:34:09 (#5429)

Thanks Vic. That is a sad tale to say the least. You do wish that you could step in to help a guy like that. Imagine getting him to play the same way without the big tokes and foolishness, playing Hi Opt II with full indexes locked and loaded. I've seen similar at the Horseshoe with a roaring drunk that seems to pop in there from time to time. They let him play and he does pretty well. The give him a room when he passes out and he starts again the next afternoon.

I Have a Free Round Trip Flight from SWA
Posted by SammyBoy on 14-Nov-2003 14:34:19 (#5421)

When are we going to attack the Chumash? ;-)

Re: I Have a Car!
Posted by Sonny on 14-Nov-2003 15:45:31 (#5422)

>When are we going to attack the Chumash? ;-)

Just give me two hours to get there and thirty minutes to go through my flashcards in the car! And, of course, lets not publicly announce when we are planning to meet there...

Anyone else want in?

-Sonny-
(MoreTrinity@hotmail.com)

I Think We Should Make It Very Public...
Posted by SammyBoy on 14-Nov-2003 15:51:45 (#5423)

and get them all worked up. Do this about three or four times in a row to really screw with them. Then we secretly setup a date and strike when they least expect it. :-)

Much Better! *NM*
Posted by Sonny on 14-Nov-2003 17:12:48 (#5428)

Great Article on Mr. Wong
Posted by SammyBoy on 14-Nov-2003 15:52:37 (#5424)

http://www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_46_wong.shtml

great Article on Mr. Wong
Posted by eyes for 21 on 14-Nov-2003 17:03:02 (#5426)

Nice to hear the master mentioning winning streaks and
lucky/unlucky modes of happening,when all
the math wizards discount these feats.

You're Wrong on Wong
Posted by Titaniumman on 15-Nov-2003 15:28:42 (#5431)

SW didn't say anything with which the "math gurus" would disagree. As a matter of fact, the article clearly and factually describes SW as a "math guru" and problem solver.

Streaks do occur, but their duration can only be determined after they have ended. Streaks and luck, both good and bad, all fit into the math of probability and standard deviation.

The math folks are constantly trying to tell you this. It's just a matter of terminology.

Titaniumman is right!
Posted by Learning to count on 15-Nov-2003 16:29:11 (#5433)

Hey metal man long time no post! Streaks do occur but dont take that as an indication that you will have the ability within to predict them. SW does not believe in such nonsense. The only way to recognize a streak is after it has occured then you can bitch and moan of why you didn't bet a hundred dollars a hand!

Re: Titaniumman is right!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 17-Nov-2003 09:43:12 (#5441)

I have a kind of renewed respect for both Wong and Snyder. I'm not sure exactly why I got into that frame of mind from the beginning. I think it was from having Kraft dinner fed to me for so long that it made me sick of eating Kraft dinner. Now I find that what I thought was Kraft dinner is actually shrimp fettuccini alfredo. I had to see passed all that commercialism that now surrounds them to see the man inside.

resPECT y'all!

Re: Titaniumman is right!
Posted by Learning to count on 17-Nov-2003 15:29:39 (#5442)

What commercialism? They still provide a lot of info and intelligence on the game for free. The on line services they offer are valuable even at the price they charge. So they have expanded and are selling thier wares. I learned how to count from both Wong and Snyder. I learned how to play the game from the interaction on the paid and free pages of thier sites. SO when you say commercialism are you refering to selling out to the casinos or are you saying a couple of geniuses who figured how to make the game pay a positive EV even beyond the tables. I think the casinos are into the commercialism they have the balls to say 6/5 single deck black jack is a great game that gamblers have demanded. Tisk Tisk shame on you Rob! You of all people should think about what you say before you say it. Hows your book ACES AND FACES doing are you still offering the hundred bucks free to play online BJ????? AT least you did realize that you were wrong!

Re: Titaniumman is right!
Posted by Titaniumman on 17-Nov-2003 19:22:52 (#5443)

I usually create a new subject heading so that folks scanning the threads can get an overview of the direction in which the thread is evolving, but this is such a nice heading that who am I to change it?
:-)

LTC, it's good to talk to you also.

I don't think Rob meant any harm in his post. There is some commercialism on the sites to be sure. The flashing and jiggling banners on the free page are a nuisance, but it's like commercials on network television. The revenue has to come from somewhere to pay the employees and the bills. If you want to enjoy commercial-free service, you have to pay for HBO and Greenchip.

I can whole-heartedly say this:

I have met and had business dealings with Stanford Wong. He is an honest businessman who listens to the opinions of others, but forms his own opinions and stands by them.

I have also had lengthy phone conversations with Arnold Snyder and in-depth correspondence with him. I turned to this man when I needed help, and he gave me better guidance and assistance than anyone else in the world could have.

I have also had much correspondence with Don Schlesinger. He too, has been a friend and has been extremely helpful to me.

It is coincidental that these three gentlemen are the top three current leaders to our community who now facilitate the greatest recent advancements to our art. I am glad to call them my friends.

Re: Titaniumman is right!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 18-Nov-2003 12:01:04 (#5453)

Thanks for understanding what I meant TMan. It was a confession, not an attack on the Masters of BJ. Both men knew when they saw Thorps work they were onto something large. If we compare SW and AS to Thorp it is like night and day in the commercial department. AS confesses that he is a writer, not a professional player in BJ Wisdom. They are both fantastic writers and players, and make no bones about selling books for a living. Nothing wrong with that. Peter Griffin fits into the Thorp mould, as does Alienated. I could only wish to know AS SW and DS the way you do TMan. Some things are just not in the cards for me.

Re: Titaniumman is right!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 18-Nov-2003 12:56:17 (#5457)

"What commercialism?"

At BJF it is a part of HP and LVA. At BJ21 it is a part of PY. Both have paid areas. And free areas.

"They still provide a lot of info and intelligence on the game for free. The on line services they offer are valuable even at the price they charge. So they have expanded and are selling thier wares."

Capitalism is a good thing.

"I learned how to count from both Wong and Snyder. I learned how to play the game from the interaction on the paid and free pages of thier sites."

My first brush with counting was from the book The New Gamblers Bible. I learned the High Low from that book, discovered a bit about SB, poker, which I already played (read Ozzy Jacoby way back), and Tbred horse racing, and all of the type L games. L=loser games. Then I got M$BJ, learned the UAPC. Discovered the Hi Opt II and tried to find info on that and ended up on the web. So maybe I didn't come up the way you did. The one thing I learned about schoolin is that you only learn as fast as the school will let you. I went from grade 9 to 13, got to the $$ fast and now decide to do 10 11 and 12 night school to fill in all of the blanks.

"SO when you say commercialism are you refering to selling out to the casinos"

No. What would make you think that? I've seen others saying that about them. Like Wong selling a list of GC members to Griffins. Total hogwash. That makes zero sense.

"or are you saying a couple of geniuses who figured how to make the game pay a positive EV even beyond the tables."

That genius is Thorp and the Four Horsemen that preceeded them. Revere and Humble climbed the rope before they did. No matter who came first, they are all wise men.

"I think the casinos are into the commercialism. They have the balls to say 6/5 single deck black jack is a great game that gamblers have demanded."

Okay. Where have you seen that they are claiming players demand 6/5 BJ?

"Tisk Tisk shame on you Rob!"

Why??

"You of all people should think about what you say before you say it."

I think I do. I waited a long time after I saw this post to reply to it.

"Hows your book ACES AND FACES doing?"

Fine. It is being updated at the printers.

"Are you still offering the hundred bucks free to play online BJ?????"

Only $100?? ;> Somehow, I think you already know the answer to that question. I've probably paid you close to $1000 already and don't even know it.

"At least you did realize that you were wrong!"

It's not a wrong or right thing. How do you gauge respect? Do you start of at 50% with people you do not know or 0% or 100%? Everyone has their own answer to that question. It was more like being able to see Norma Jean inside Marilyn Monroe.

"Goodbye Norma Jean...."

Re: Titaniumman is right!
Posted by Learning to count on 18-Nov-2003 13:31:58 (#5460)

Your original post seemed critical. In my experience those who say someone or some thing has gone commercial see that as a negative almost anti capitalistic. As far as the $1000 can you send me a check! Good explanation on your part.

Re: Titaniumman is right!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 19-Nov-2003 09:57:12 (#5476)

I can see how you thought that, but what bothers me is how you responded to me, like you have some kind of growing grudge or something. I am a BJ player first. Second, I am here to help people climb the bean stalk to grab the golden goose. I am also a savvy business minded person that figured out ways to make money for all of us. I do not send slot players to their BR graves. I've been tarred and feathered with the same brush they use on onLand and onLine casinos by people that come to quick conclusions. That is fine with me. It is the mind that thinks for itself that I am looking for. Lies about good men often tend to weed people out and what you end up with is a batch of thinking living breathing real long life good friends. (I overpaid a player of mine and was happily surprised that he pointed it out and sent the money back to me.) I would like to think that would include you, AS, SW, DS, etc and many other people and players here and abroad.

Re: Titaniumman is right!
Posted by Learning to understand R Mcgarvey on 19-Nov-2003 09:11:31 (#5473)

Rob all criticism aside...there was a Vegas Marquee that was advertising "Back by popular demand", "single deck Black Jack",..."pays 6/5", like it was some great thing. Itwas either Ba!!y's or M&M or both. I have a witness too: LAS VEGAS BEAR. He saw it too. HEy Rob when you took that photo in front of the RIV did you try and squeeze those cheeks on the wall????

Learning to Change Your Alias
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 19-Nov-2003 10:10:34 (#5477)

"Rob all criticism aside...there was a Vegas Marquee that was advertising "Back by popular demand", "single deck Black Jack",..."pays 6/5", like it was some great thing. Itwas either Ba!!y's or M&M or both. I have a witness too: LAS VEGAS BEAR. He saw it too."

That answers that question. I never doubted that it was advertised, but the way it was presented to me was like I wrote the ad and hung it up with ardock nails someplace.

"HEy Rob when you took that photo in front of the RIV did you try and squeeze those cheeks on the wall????"

Hahahahaha!! They look squeezable let me tell you. I saw the show for free, which was rather lame. The best part of it was the comedy acts that go with it. Do NOT sit at the front! About the only real quality of those quail tails is that they stay hot after the sun gets off them. When the sun is beaming on them you'd have a hard time hanging onto that hot piece of ass!! laugh

Ditto on their faces!
Posted by Learning to count on 19-Nov-2003 10:21:53 (#5479)

When I saw the show (I paid like the dumb ploppy I was); I really did not see their faces but I did see a lot of silicone enhancement. Your right about the show being as bad as the two free drinks you get. Did your drinks glow? Even in the light???

Re: Ditto on their faces!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 19-Nov-2003 19:12:39 (#5486)

I think we both got one drink for free. That went down before we got into the show. I think they were late that night. This was before I was married. The girl I was with had as much silly cones as the performers did! evil grin

Published Before?
Posted by Cyrano on 15-Nov-2003 15:30:00 (#5432)

I seem to recall almost the same article word-for-word in his book, American Casino Guide (the latest edition)...

Richard Marcus's American Roulette
Posted by AdamZ on 15-Nov-2003 21:28:18 (#5434)

I just read Richard's book about cheating in the casinos. Anyone else read it? If so what do you think? I found it very entertaining but reallt don't believe they did what they said they did. I found several holes, but am curious what others think.

thanks

Adam

Re: Richard Marcus's American Roulette
Posted by The Mayor on 16-Nov-2003 16:34:57 (#5439)

I just ordered it from Amazon -- I am very excited to read it. Thanks for the tip.

I don't want to encourage cheating -- but one should always be aware of opportunities.

--Mayor

Basic Strategy
Posted by AdamZ on 15-Nov-2003 21:43:24 (#5435)

Why do many of the books disagree on the basic strategy?

u have a 13 dealer has a 2. count is even what do u do???
u have a 12 dealer has a 3 ???

I hit but would like your opinions

Re: Basic Strategy
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 16-Nov-2003 02:11:39 (#5436)

There should never be a dispute about proper basic strategy. There is a single optimal BS for any set of rules you should encounter. Any book in the "Reading List" on this site should clear things up in that department. There are a lot of bad books, so beware.

>>"u have a 13 dealer has a 2. count is even what do u do???"

This is not a point of Basic Strategy because you are considering a count. I guess It would depend on what count you were using. With Hi-Lo, It's near zero for all rules I have encountered.

Personally, I use -1(Hi-Lo) as an index for this for all games. But 0 would probably work near as well... maybe even +1?.

The reason the books disagree is probably because the EV of changing strategy at any of these counts would probably be negligible. (Math gurus jump in, please)

A much more important question would be this:

"u have a 13 dealer has a 2. count is +6 what do u do???"

-Felix

Re: Basic Strategy
Posted by The Mayor on 16-Nov-2003 16:33:01 (#5438)

Yet another point is that close calls effectively don't matter. You can waste your life away worrying about hitting or standing on 13. v. 2 in a neutral count, and it won't buy you a cup of coffee if you get it right every time. However, forgetting to insure with a max bet out and a huge TC will cost you a Lexus if you keep it up over a lifetime.

Once again I refer to my essay:

http://www.cardcounter.com/Essays/Mistakes.htm

--Mayor

Re: Basic Strategy
Posted by Cadillac on 16-Nov-2003 23:48:25 (#5440)

go to bjmath.com, click on novice corner, click on basic strategy

8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 17-Nov-2003 20:29:43 (#5444)

I've always been puzzled by this one. Yes, I've heard it and read it a 100,000 times. Yes, I even play it by the book, but I wish I could feel more confident about why. If in fact this is what the computer sims have determined, which no doubt it is, then how about this theoretical situation:

First off, we somehow find a casino that would allow us to split pairs 'til the cows come home. We get a pair of eights, D shows a face. Now we split, ��. whatdayaknow! We keep getting more of these: 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8............ Now, here's the 64k question: Are we making more or less $ by splitting and resplitting these little "countless" type of cards? Are we supposed to feel good as if it is a valuable opportunity as we continue resplitting them again and again against a face?

Two others that bother me, but certainly quite less are: 1) Hitting soft 18 against an Ace. 2) Not doubling 11 against Ace. *Both multi-deck strategy at 0 count, H17. I will admit that if I see a more than average number of 2�s or 3�s on the table, I will probably just stand on the soft 18. Otherwise, I will play it by the �book�.

Maybe I should just accept what the computers have determined. Mortal humans may not even have an answer for this dilemma of mine other than just "pure math". Am I the only A P that fries the brain over the issue presented above? Is it pure horse feathers?

Also, attn: math guru's. What does the TC have to be for the D to go bust most often?

Stealth

A,A vs. 10 showing???
Posted by Ohio_Jones on 18-Nov-2003 00:39:13 (#5445)

I am also not confident about this one. Perhaps if i could hit, but one card in a negative count? A couple weeks ago i got yelled at for hitting my 2 A's against a dealer's T. I pulled a 3,5 for a push against the D's 20. It was a ten dollar bet, but i felt better pushing then losing 20. I guess this is wrong and goes against all BS that i've seen.

Re: A,A vs. 10 showing???
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 18-Nov-2003 12:13:46 (#5455)

+2.62 EV for you to splitem and -.47 to hit. The difference is almost 3%. I think that people have to understand what they are throwing away before they do it. Remember all those dinky cars you USED to have? ;>

Thanks Rob *NM* *NM*
Posted by Ohio_Jones on 19-Nov-2003 15:57:00 (#5485)

Re: 8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
Posted by SammyBoy on 18-Nov-2003 08:26:37 (#5446)

I'm no math guru but, 8-8 vs 10 is a losing proposition. You stand and you will lose more times than not. You hit and you will bust most of the time, or catch a low card and still lose to a dealer 20. By splitting, you have a chance to catch a 2 or 3 and then a face. With the 3 you can double down. While it sure seems like you lose everytime you split 8's against the 10, I'm positive that the math shows that you lose less by splitting, which is why basic strategy says to split.

Re: 8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
Posted by The Mayor on 18-Nov-2003 09:42:03 (#5447)

Yes, you lose less by splitting ...

Many "lose less" strategies seem wrong, simply because they increase variance (in this case, we are only mildly increasing our EV, but wildly increasing our SD). Mistaking variance for EV is a common error -- for example the "odds" bet at craps takes advantage of this. In particular, plays like 8-8 vs. 10, where our hand is quite likely to lose, makes the increase of variance difficult to stomach.

Here is another example. I was playing single - 0 roulette (!), and I made a red bet and a black bet, at the table minimum. This is one of the cheapest source of comps in the house (well, one can do the same thing at craps, and it's much cheaper). The other players thought I was a fool, as there was no way I could win, but one big way I could lose -- meanwhile they spread their chips in a seemingly random way around the table. They were happy with their much higher variance, watching their stacks rise and fall. I was happy to have my stack stay the same (the 0 never hit). Everyone at the table was playing with the same EV. Most were playing FOR a higher variance, i was playing for a low variance.

Variance and EV are separate entities, and should not be confused.

--Mayor

READ
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 18-Nov-2003 10:02:54 (#5448)

the hole card and all your problems will be solved! ;>

Re: 8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
Posted by Victoria on 18-Nov-2003 10:34:12 (#5449)

It is all a loosing proposition. The long run says you will loose less by doubling. For myself, give me a game with surrender and I will be more than willing to sacrifice 50% than risk 200% on a pair of 8's. Of course many places do not offer surrender but in the ones that do, I constantly watch BS players or pretend BS players say things like, that's what the book says to do. Of course if they really read the so called book, they would be surrendering also.

Re: 8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 18-Nov-2003 10:59:52 (#5451)

I usually never get to play a game with surrender. I do think I would consider using it though in this situation. However, my book says not to, except only for early surrender. Need psycho doctors to help a little here please. :-)

Stealth

Your book may be right but
Posted by Victoria on 18-Nov-2003 11:29:21 (#5452)

I think the difference between doubling, if it is a better move, and surrendering is nearly nothing in the basic strategy world. Now if the count is high and I pushed out a big bet do I really want to double that money?
Victoria

Right Question
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 18-Nov-2003 12:09:28 (#5454)

Many a time the right play calls for an increase in variance for a few cents. Consult your indices for the proper time to stand with 8,8 vs 10. This may help. Not one of the Ill18 mind you, but worth knowing. As the Mayor and those before him point out, an error in play will not kill you. Say you sit there all night long and get one 8,8 vs 10 in your face. Just play the hand the proper way and take it like a man! or woman in Vic's case! ;> Suicide can be fun when you go to pop a cap and you get 3's to go with those 8's.

3's and 8's for all y'all CB'ers out there

Rob

If you had your drathers, what would you do?
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 18-Nov-2003 12:51:00 (#5456)

Rob: Which would you rather have; assuming the count is Z, 10 million bank roll, one nice big 50k bet, you have either a pair of eights and caught a 3 on a hit -or- you split the eights and caught a 3 on one of them (the other hand of a 1 card eight hasn't been played yet). In other words; would you rather have a 19 against the face and be done with it -or- a two card 11 on one hand, waiting for a decision and a 1 card 8, waiting for a decision on the other?

Answers from others encouraged too. And the answer is not, TO TAKE THE 10 MILL AND RUN either! LOL :-))))))

Stealth

Re: If you had your drathers, what would you do?
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 18-Nov-2003 13:07:13 (#5458)

Rob: Which would you rather have;

assuming the count is Z,

10 million bank roll,

one nice big 50k bet,

you have either a pair of eights and caught a 3 on a hit -or-

you split the eights and caught a 3 on one of them (the other hand of a 1 card eight hasn't been played yet).

In other words;

would you rather have a 19 against the face and be done with it -or-

a two card 11 on one hand, waiting for a decision and a 1 card 8, waiting for a decision on the other?

Standing with 8,8,3 vs 10 up gives you a .37 edge.

Doubling 8,3 vs 10 gives you a 1.62% edge.

Hitting 8 vs 10 -2.6%

BUT, you do not get this choice until you split those 8's. It's like asking the question should I wear a condom -or- get an HIV test -or- see how I feel in six years then decide.

Wear a condom, and split those 8's!

Re: 8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 18-Nov-2003 10:50:24 (#5450)

Mayor, I don't really understand how computer sims works. But I assume the fact that we could potentially end up with more 8 splits, is also included in the sim. I'm not sure if I understand you correctly though, are you saying that regardless of however many eights we get for additional splits, we will make more $ if we play it by the book. Or are we just in a defensive mode where we lose less as we continue to unfortunately have to split the eights again and again and again? I need another book to explain more about S D too. The only book I have is BJ For Blood. I need more knowledge.

If in fact we will win more $ by continuously splitting the eights, why not split nines against a face too?

I have an idea you have some simple words to smooth out my phycological wharps. If not, I'll just have to reach for the Xanax bottle.

Stealth

Re: 8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 18-Nov-2003 13:20:43 (#5459)

The problem is you are thinking you win more by splitting the 8s. You don't. You LOSE less by splitting, not win more.

Here is how it works with some made up numbers (the real ones are much, much closer, like .01%)

Player A gets 8,8 vs 10 nine times. He properly splits each time, and gets kicked in the head.
7 Losing splits + 2 winning split = 10 units down.

Player B gets 8,8 vs 10 nine times. He plays it as 16 and hits or stands as the mood strikes him.
16 vs T ain't a great place to be. Wins 2, loses 7 = 5 units down.

But look at idiot Player A, Player B thinks. I have only lost half as much as him.
8,8 vs T comes up again and he stands since the count is positive, and wins again!

net loss for Player B after 10 hands = 4 units down.

Now on that 10th hand, Player A splits them again. And again. And again. Then low an behold, he gets a 3. Double Down. And another 3. Double Down. And another 3. Double Down. And another 3. Double Down. Then the dealer BUSTS! Player A has just won 8 units.

net loss for Player A after 10 hands = 2 units down.

So who is the idiot now? Player B gets down as far as 5 units, and in the long run winds up with a 4 unit loss.
Player A gets down as far as 10 units (ouch), but in the long run winds up with just a 2 unit loss.

Re: 8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 30-Nov-2003 22:52:41 (#5591)

My sims tell me to surrender with TC>0, split otherwise. This is for a shoe game. I love the 0 indices, because you will be playing them one way half of the time and the other way the other half, makes you look like an inconsistent player. Like hard 12 vs. 4, that one always gets hoots and howls.

Stealth, Have You Moved to Vegas Yet? *NM*
Posted by SammyBoy on 18-Nov-2003 16:08:05 (#5461)

Re: Stealth, Have You Moved to Vegas Yet?
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 18-Nov-2003 19:57:54 (#5462)

I wish! Probably in about 1 year from now though. I'm tired of having to travel so far to hit up small joints with 2/3 pen on 6 D and eating at their funky buffets. Hey I've even had to challenge 4 deck CSMs. Won too, but had to back C & wong myself half to death. I think they thought I was some kind of a nutt.

Here's one for ya: About 4 years ago, I popped into a small out-a-the-way joint for a quickie near Carson City (no not a brothel). I was pretty gutsy back then and was having some fun testing out the P Cs. Good S D game, D on any, H17, 1 on 1. Lucked on to a monster C. Chunked out a tall stack of red (about 125). The D called "checks play" to the P C. He walks over to watch. I said "hi, how ya doin'". He mutters something. Anyway the cards come and I can't believe the D is showin' 5. What's more unbelievable is, I flip up a pair of sixes. I'm thinkin' how's this possible? The P C looked at me and says "now what are ya gonna do?" with a big sarcastic grin too. I said, "whatdaya think, I'm gonna split 'em". So I put out another big chunk. Guy starts in with this stupid grin again and says, "now your gonna get two 16s". He started to really piss me off. So I pondered it for a moment. Realized I wanted to get another hand from this monster of monster counts and was a little worried that I wouldn't 'cause there wasn't many cards left in the Ds hand + I didn't want to get the two 16s like the P C said. So I waved off the D and said, "stand". D says, "You can't do that,� I say "why not, he told me I was gonna get two 16s? What good is that? I think I just want you to have the next card". The D and the P C look at each other puzzled by the fact that I'm going to stand on two split hands with only a one card 6 on each hand. After a moment of silence, the P C says to me with his sh!tty azz grin, "Sir, you can do what ever you like". Hey this guy's like music to my ears. :-) So away we go. Sure enough, D has a 10 under and slammed the hard 16 with another for a lovely 26. I went "whew hoo" and danced around a bit. Then I said, �Do you guys give up yet or do ya wanna try another if I let it ride?� (While looking at them with wild wide eyes) The P C says, "I dare ya". Wow! How incredible! I sucked him right into my web. ��. So here we go again. I now have about $250 on 2 circles. Sure enough, I get two faces on one hand and BJ on the other. D shows a 9. I get paid on the 21. About now the P C leaves the pit. I wave off the 20. Then D shows 10 in the hole. D pays me. I color-up. Bypassed the cage and vanished. ��.. Waaaaaaaay to much fun! Cashed in my chips about 6 mo later while passing through.

Stealth

This is irresponsible
Posted by Alex on 19-Nov-2003 03:15:42 (#5464)

First, you cannot split and then stand without taking at least a single hit card. I never heard about this move ever in my BJ career. This will be the equivalent of doubling down a 6,6 vs. 5 without taking a hit cart. The casino will not let you do that. Period!

When you split a pair you have to take at least one hit card and when doubling down you only get one hit card. If you tell me that you didn�t want to hit your 6s after splitting them because you want the next card to go to the dealer then I ask you this: Why didn�t you take a hit? You could not possibly know where the bust card for the potential dealer�s 15 is located. It could have been the next card or the card after that. You never know this for sure.

And, another point is that if you play in a game where doubling after split is permitted you are missing the opportunity to do just that. If you hit and get : A,2,3,4 or a 5 you could double down after split. If you get a 6 you could split again. Even if doubling after split was not permitted the correct move would have been for you to take at least one hit and depending of the total to take another or stand is your total would have been above 11. So, I don�t understand why you choose not taking a hit on your 6 vs. 5 up card in a split mode. What was your rational?

AlexD30

Re: This is irresponsible
Posted by SammyBoy on 19-Nov-2003 08:27:31 (#5467)

You can do anything the pit personnel will let you get away with.

Re: This is irresponsible
Posted by Learning to count on 19-Nov-2003 09:00:26 (#5470)

""You can do anything the pit personnel will let you get away with.""

This may true but I would consider this casino suspect. If they allow this then what is to stop them from cheating! The play was wrong that is definite. The play was voodoo. Unless you can tell me what the index number was to call for such a play. Nice to hear that you won! Just beware of such play it will hurt your EV.

Re: This is irresponsible
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Nov-2003 09:47:15 (#5475)

I completely agree with this.

>The play was voodoo. Unless you can tell me what the index number was to call for such a play. Nice to hear that you won! Just beware of such play it will hurt your EV.

Ditto *NM*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 19-Nov-2003 10:13:11 (#5478)

Ok, Answers for the Craziness
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 19-Nov-2003 11:42:48 (#5482)

I realize there are no index numbers for this play. However, There must be an index number with a very high T C that would put the D at much higher than 50% chance for a bust in this situation. However, I can�t remember what the count was when I did this, but I remember the R C # was out of the usual high R C. Something beyond or matched anything I'd ever seen before. I was a new A P then too. I did say I was gutsy and was basically test-driving the P Cs to see what they could withstand. I certainly found out in my early days just how far I could push them. If you guys read my profile, you will notice the type of player I was then. At that time I was too busy having fun with the game and the P Crews. I didn�t know where to go to obtain the precise mathematical support and skill like nowadays. I had some teaching by a man who may have been the best B J player in the world from 1935 - 1960.

Let�s look at all the factors in order of importance based on the way I saw it: 1) No DAS. 2) Humongous C. 3) I was trying to keep enough cards in what was left of the pack to give me another play and maybe even a spread to two hands. 4) My act appeared to them as a very gutsy, crazy and a stupid player, which allowed me to get away with anything. 5) There were 3 cards that the D needed which she couldn�t get �cause they were on the table. 6) I wanted to slam the P C with a play he would never forget. One that would leave him suffering his mental wounds for some time. Yes #6 is nuts. But the fun it could provide me was worth the risk (back then). ;-)

There was more said by the P C which comes to mind: When I attempted the play, I remember the P C was telling the D that there was nothing in the book (rules) that states that I couldn�t just stand on split sixes as a one card hand. If you think about it, how can they make a player take a card after the split? Why would they? The player has to be either nuts or is a C or both (in my case).

Ok, fire away.

Stealth

What would be your attitude if you lost?
Posted by LEARNING TO COUNT on 19-Nov-2003 12:00:56 (#5483)

Being a ploppy is excusable. But when you are playing according to the count then only through PERFECT play will you obtain the edge. I too have not done something when I had a high count. I have won and I have lost. This is dangerous to your EV. Be careful Stealthy this kind of play will get you heat they may be stupid but to them a winner is bad for business.

Re: What would be your attitude if you lost?
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 19-Nov-2003 19:29:56 (#5487)

Ok Pops.....I'll be good......I promise......I won't do it anymore. :-(

Seriously though my friends, that happened back in my early days. I was like a kid in a candy store then. I was rolling along on high highs and low lows.

Although, based on all those factors I mentioned and the high C, if I had known that all unseen cards were 8 or larger, it would have been a perfectly orchestrated play. Of course the other prob was; how many cards were unseen. I'm guessing there were no more than 15 cards. I don't remember the C but it was probably 12 to 14 using simple hi/lo. With this, there could have been 7's, 8's, 9's(newtrals)& faces & A's within the mix. At absolute worst, there could have been three small cards mixed in which could have wiped me out.

Yes LTC, it would have been devastating if it didn't go my way and the D smoked my azz off. I'm not advocating that anyone do a move like this unless maaaaaaybe they were at least 95% certain there were no cards smaller than an 8 left in the pack. As for "heat", your pretty much toast after a play like this one. Just pack it in and head for the doors. Do not pass go, but do pass up the cage and just high tail it right on out and down road.

Stealth

Re: What would be your attitude if you lost?
Posted by deZerTomB on 19-Nov-2003 20:47:26 (#5488)

I'm new here and to the counting game, my question is why pass the cage? I cashed out $575($300 of my money) at a local indian casino & the cashier got a call just as I cashed out, coincident? Sorry if this is a stupid question. My biggest winner was when I hit a bj with$75 bet (+11 count, only 2 aces out) on a $5-100 table DD, poor penetration. It was the last hand before shuffle, so less than 1 deck left. When I hit that bj, the dealer said, we got a card counter here and smiled. I said "I wish", then went back to $5 bet on the fresh shuffle. hehe. played a few more shuffles. No heat, I could bet $5 on the first hand and $100 on the last all day long & the dealer, pit boss didn't blink an eye or say a word. So why pass up the cashier's cage?

I just wanted to get the hell outa Dodge!
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 19-Nov-2003 23:38:59 (#5491)

Because the play I made had "card counter" or "nut case" written all over it and it worked all so perfectly. They may have classified it as "all of the above". It was also a real "in your face" play which slammed the P C so bad he left the pit. Where he went and what his plan was, I don�t know. It wasn�t normal for him to leave before the finish of a wild play like that. I didn't want to stick around to find out what might happen next, e.g. back rooming, barring, maybe even a good old-fashioned azz whippin'. I had plenty of $ in my pocket. Who knows, a couple of there thugs might try and take it. Therefore, I felt it was best to just disappear. I didn't even go to my car immediately after I left. This was a small joint. I did however, leave in a way that didn�t appear as if I just robbed a bank. ;-)

Stealth

Re: Ok, Answers for the Craziness
Posted by eyes for 21 on 19-Nov-2003 23:11:14 (#5490)

A few casinos bosses make up their own rules as due fit,for example
at recent casino outing the pit noticed the dealer was killing
all of us with the remarkable 20,21's (like Wong says streaks happen)
so the nice Mr. Boss said on the next hand to the dealer
to turn over his cards but to pay us anyways,this lasted for the
next four
unreal hands.

crazy things happen legal or illegal.
just when we thought we have seen it all//

Right On The Money Ol' Buddy, Exactly *NM*
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 19-Nov-2003 22:57:15 (#5489)

Re: Stealth, Have You Moved to Vegas Yet?
Posted by Mr Pill on 20-Nov-2003 11:52:11 (#5495)

"Sure enough, I get two faces on one hand and BJ on the other. D shows a 9."

Stealth,

So why didn't you double on the BJ and 20 on the next hands without taking a card?

Pill

That is funny! *NM*
Posted by SammyBoy on 20-Nov-2003 15:24:18 (#5499)

Hey, Mr Pill
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 20-Nov-2003 16:21:59 (#5500)

Gaaah! ....... Hey don't temp me. If the D somehow had been showing a 4, 5 or 6 again, I would have split the faces. Only time to even think about doubling a soft 21 is after a split of faces. It is the only way to have chance for a "Royal Slammer"! (four soft 21's with DD faces sitting sideways on each of the four hands) Though, I am pretty well convinced that it will never happen for anyone. Even I,........ the "Stealth Bomber" can only just dream about trying s!!t like that one. LOL :-)))))

Stealth

Re: Hey, Mr Pill
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 21-Nov-2003 09:53:55 (#5504)

"Only time to even think about doubling a soft 21 is after a split of faces."

I think he meant BJ, not s21, ie 4,6,A, which you can do if you play at the SL. Another time you should consider doing a DD on BJ is in a tourney when the chips call for it.

SL, Reno?
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 21-Nov-2003 11:18:28 (#5505)

I was there about 3.5 months ago. Re: 6D, was DD only on 1st 2 and 1st 2 after SP. But I do remember the good ol' days though. Are they doing it again?

I never doubled in any tourney I ever played cause BJ already paid 2-1.

Stealth

Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#5463)

Re: Hi-Opt II question
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Nov-2003 08:12:53 (#5466)

For insurance, it varies by the number of decks -- so make sure you are matching the numbers for the same game.

As for being off by 1 -- it absolutely DOES NOT MATTER who is right and who is wrong. Choose a set of hi-opt II's from any source and learn them for the game you want to play most often.

Re: Hi-Opt II question
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 19-Nov-2003 09:26:00 (#5474)

My numbers were created by SBA v5.0. I'm not sure how Humble got his. They were probably spun out by Einstein on a pocket calculator. I trust SBA so I used those #'s. 2001 publishers should use 2001 calcs. Mayor is right. BE tops out at 70%. Each index is also a composite of cards played, so even if you use the SBA #'s you are ball parking your play departures. PE tops out at 100%. Getting your $$ on the felt at the right time is the most important thing about counting.

What is most important is the game you play and the penetration.

Re: Hi-Opt II question
Posted by Sonny on 19-Nov-2003 10:57:37 (#5480)

> BE tops out at 70%. Each index is also a composite of cards played, so even
> if you use the SBA #'s you are ball parking your play departures. PE tops out
> at 100%.

I think you got your BEs and PEs mixed up.

> Getting your $$ on the felt at the right time is the most important
> thing about counting.

Amen!

-Sonny-

Re: Hi-Opt II question
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 20-Nov-2003 11:15:17 (#5494)

> BE tops out at 70%. Each index is also a composite of cards played, so even
> if you use the SBA #'s you are ball parking your play departures. PE tops out
> at 100%.

"I think you got your BEs and PEs mixed up."

Yes! A slip of the finger.

> Getting your $$ on the felt at the right time is the most important
> thing about counting.

And all Thorp's people said??

"Amen!"

PE tops out at 70%. Each index is also a composite of cards played, so even
if you use the SBA #'s you are ball parking your play departures.

A-10
51 60 85 125 169 122 117 43 -52 -180 =.703

BE tops out at 100%.

A-10
-9 5 6 8 11 6 4 0 -3 -7 = 1.00

From Theory of Blackjack.

I like how Bryce Carlson takes these numbers, tosses in the 10 count then boils them down to the numbers that compose his O II and AO II systems.

N. Nevada Condition Question
Posted by Cyrano on 19-Nov-2003 03:58:44 (#5465)

Has anybody been up in the Reno/Tahoe area recently? Are there still a number of good SD games or should I just concentrate on DD? I'm brushing up for winter break and was wondering what are the predominant rules now (DAS?). Finally, what did you notice for the penetration levels for both of these games?

Re: N. Nevada Condition Question *LINK*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 19-Nov-2003 09:00:34 (#5471)

Here is a good spot to get a grip on which games you should take a stab at:

Thanks Rob
Posted by Cyrano on 19-Nov-2003 11:26:27 (#5481)

Actually, I took a look at this site first before I asked the question. A lot of the conditions seem to be either outdated or they just didn't change. What's your take? I heard Running Count is the resident N. Nevada expert.. RC, care to weigh in? :-)

Re: Thanks Rob
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Nov-2003 14:49:03 (#5484)

My information on Reno is that it still has the best single deck in Nevada, but not high tolerance for green action.

Reno vs. Tahoe
Posted by Cyrano on 20-Nov-2003 15:03:52 (#5496)

Thanks Mayor.

I did some more due diligence and it seems from what I've gathered, Tahoe's BJ games are horrific. Should I not play any of theirs?

Re: Reno vs. Tahoe
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 20-Nov-2003 20:08:48 (#5501)

Tahoe sucks except for a decent 6D @ 75% pen at Ceasers. Though I do think Tahoe's well designed for skier type yuppie ploppies. Usually some hot lookin' babes!

Stealth

Re: Reno vs. Tahoe
Posted by NorCalBJ on 20-Nov-2003 20:58:49 (#5502)

When I was in North Lake Tahoe in August the Crystal Bay Club had single deck, double on any two (H17 I believe). They did have those computerized machines that track play under the dealer chip tray, but my red chip action didn't bother them.

Hey NorCalBJ....
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 21-Nov-2003 20:40:52 (#5511)

The SL in Reno used to allow D on anything, i.e. 4 card soft 17 after spl. Do you know if it's back again?

Stealth

Re: Hey NorCalBJ....
Posted by NorCalBJ on 22-Nov-2003 21:16:38 (#5514)

Sorry. I'm not sure.

Re: Hey NorCalBJ....
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 30-Nov-2003 22:38:14 (#5588)

They allow DD on any 3 cards. This is a very nice option, probably the most valuable player option you will find. In Reno dealers keep their own tips, and I have seen dealers do things they could be fired for for a red chip. This will only happen at a table where you are alone or where all of the players are "cool".

superb link, thanks! *NM*
Posted by John Lewis on 14-Jan-2004 08:43:47 (#6183)

Re: N. Nevada Condition Question
Posted by Alexander Mundy on 24-Nov-2003 10:08:52 (#5516)

Reno is still mostly SD. Downtown is D10, except for Sands (D9) and Siena (DOA). Sparks is mostly DOA, with the Alamo adding LS. The outlying casinos, Boomtown, Atlantis and Peppermill are DOA. P'mill also has D10. In Carson City, the Nugget and Fandango are SD, DOA, the Station is D10. Pinion Plaza is DD D10 (altho I haven't been there for years). Further south to Minden, Carson Valley Inn is DOA, Topaz Lodge is DOA, LS. In South Lake Tahoe, Lakeside is D10, Ceasars has 2 or 3 SD D10, Harrah's has 1 or 2 SD D10 in limit pit, Harvey's has at least 1 SD D10, Horizon has 1 or 2 SD D10, some 6/5. North Shore - Hyatt doesn't have any SD (that I know of), Crystal Bay has SD D10 mindplay, Tahoe Biltmore has a few SD D10, Cal Neva doesn't have SD. Most of the places listed are very beatable, altho you may have to be dealer selective.

Re: N. Nevada Condition Question
Posted by Cyrano on 24-Nov-2003 13:48:18 (#5519)

Thanks for the great post! Do you have a general rule of how much they let you spread for your bets before they start sweating? 1-4? 1-6?

Some updates
Posted by Alexander Mundy on 28-Nov-2003 10:32:45 (#5569)

Harrah's Reno now has some 6/5 SD in the pit near the racebook. The SD in the main casino and high limit pit is still 3/2 D10 with good pen. Atlantis in now mostly SD D10. There are some SD DOA.

Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#5468)

Re: Hi-Opt II question
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Nov-2003 08:52:02 (#5469)

For insurance, many experts just always take it as cover. The point is, that when you take it and the count does not justify it, you have your small bet out, but when you take it and you have a big bet out, the count does justify it. Thus, you are making the right bet when you have a big bet out, and using cover on your small bets. This is called "Counter Basic Strategy" -- a form of basic strategy that is used for cover, that favors the counter.

But, if you must use indices for insurance, then use the right ones. The 1-deck number is way too low to use in the 6 deck game.

Re: Hi-Opt II question *LINK*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 19-Nov-2003 09:03:50 (#5472)

Interesting post Mayor! Something to consider for play all players.

Need Std Dev and House Edge
Posted by ZZZ on 20-Nov-2003 10:46:36 (#5493)

Can anyone give me house edge and std dev for the following game with basic strategy?

Game (bad): S17, No DAS, ENHC (lose double on dealer BJ, so I didn't double 11 vs dealer T or A), split only once. 1000 hands.

This was an online game in which I lost 120 units in 1000. I suspect it may be a fradulent place.

Re: Need Std Dev and House Edge
Posted by SammyBoy on 20-Nov-2003 15:23:10 (#5498)

I don't have the numbers but, from my casino experiences losing 120 units in 10 hours (1,000 hands) is very possible. Although I've never flat bet that many units for 10 hours straight which is what I'm sure you are doing online. Surely someone will chime in with the answer you are looking for.

Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#5497)

Re: Hi-Opt II question
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 21-Nov-2003 09:49:34 (#5503)

SBA seems to go on forever when making the indices up. Like 10m hands at times. I have at times stoped the sim to see if it made any dif between 1m and 10m. I don't think it every made a dif. Just the #'s at the end of a .0005673 string changed.

Blackjack in Atlantic City
Posted by Dschddny on 21-Nov-2003 14:41:56 (#5506)

I'm planning to do some CC in AC and I have a few questions:

How aggressive can you be with jumping in and out of the game mid-shoe? My plan is to watch the beginning of the shoe, jump in when the count is positive, and sit out whenever the count goes negative. Even better, I plan to play multiple hands when the count gets really high, in addition to increasing my bet. Will I get any grief by doing this so aggressively? (Note that I am a low-roller, with my bet spread probably being around $5-$25!)

I look forward to your comments!

Thanks,
D

Re: Blackjack in Atlantic City
Posted by eyes for 21 on 21-Nov-2003 20:15:31 (#5509)

You can jump as high as you want there.
But 8 decks and limited 6 decks and csm,come on./

Re: Blackjack in Atlantic City
Posted by BlackJackHack on 22-Nov-2003 00:11:07 (#5513)

I live in the mid-Atlantic region and play in AC at least once per month. I agree that red chippers will get no heat in AC whatever they do. I wong in at $50 and go up to $250/300 and RARELY get any attention even for that.

If you're patient (i.e., willing to go an hour at times without playing a hand), and willing to stand on your feet all day, AC actually offers decent wonging opportunities. There are a lot more 6 deck games than there used to be, and even the 8 deckers are not bad if you're wonging in.

Re: Blackjack in Atlantic City
Posted by Dschddny on 24-Nov-2003 08:14:40 (#5515)

Where are the 6-deck games in AC?

Thanks.

Re: Blackjack in Atlantic City
Posted by BlackJackHack on 25-Nov-2003 11:18:49 (#5530)

At Borgata, ALL games are 6D, with mins as low as $5. During typical hours, lowest min is $10, at peak lowest min will be $25. Hilton has a handful (usually 4 or 5) of 6D games (not labeled at all to differentiate them from the 8D games - you just have to spot them) with mins of $10 and $25. Sands usually has 2 or 3 6D games, with mins of $15 or $25. Showboat offers 6D in high limit pit for $25 min. The rest of the casinos offer 6D only at the $100 level.

Re: Blackjack in Atlantic City
Posted by The Mayor on 21-Nov-2003 20:17:05 (#5510)

With a max bet of $25 you can do anything you want, forever, without heat in AC. No one, not one single entity, will look twice at you.

Re: Blackjack in Atlantic City
Posted by Dschddny on 26-Nov-2003 12:52:14 (#5545)

<<With a max bet of $25 you can do anything you want, forever, without heat in AC. No one, not one single entity, will look twice at you. >>

Even if I only play hands when the count is positive, sitting out hands when the count is negative (with my but still glued to the chair however)?

Re: Blackjack in Atlantic City
Posted by BlackJackHack on 29-Nov-2003 11:45:05 (#5572)

At the red level, you could probably get away with that for a while in AC. The only reason the house would eventually stop you from doing that would be because you'd be pissing off all of the ploppies, not because you are a threat.

Hit on Soft-17?
Posted by Dschddny on 24-Nov-2003 10:11:59 (#5517)

Does the dealer hit on Soft-17 in Atlantic City?

Thanks!

Re: Hit on Soft-17?
Posted by revereman on 24-Nov-2003 12:11:01 (#5518)

Just back from Vegas
Posted by Victoria on 24-Nov-2003 14:50:37 (#5520)

Let's see; to be politically correct on this board, I think it is called variance, most people just call it luck. For those who think progression, think about this. I lost 16 straight hands, nearly half of those in a very positive shoe. I watched the right cards hit the table but just not hit my hand. On one hand, TC+5 and two other players at the table. I paired 7's, one player got a BJ, other a 20, dealer had a 5. With a $250 bet I split, get a 3rd 7, and a 4th. Then 2 10's, a 4 for a double with a horrid ace, then a third 10. Dealer turns a 15, hits an ace, then a 3. It's happened before, it will happen again (I am convinced anything can happen short run), and it is mentally draining. With the shoe still positive but my confidence not, I backed off to my minimum bet till I proved to myself I could win one (saved about a grand doing this) but the count went down and I went to dinner. Point is to anyone new to this game of ours: Though you will win long run, in the short run, in a positive count situation, you can be slaughtered. Cost me $3,000 or so but for a progressionist 16 straight is death. So for the new guys, you can play perfectly but if you hit a period of shit luck, oops variance, you will take your lumps.

Can not give too many details about where I played because I will be going back. They have a good 6 deck, hand shuffled game at green level. They went to 6-5 a the single deck but their single deck game was never good because of early shuffles.
Penetration was all over the place. Worst probably was 2/3 or 67%, to my favorite dealer who is around 90%. No heat, image getting heat while in that loosing streak, but a new pit creature was checking me very closely while I was going well. I cut the session short and then said hi to the pit boss who I think knows I count. She once commented to me, that I seem to attract better players to the tables when I am there (better must mean bigger loosers). Being a wise ass, I asked if she wanted to give me a percentage, she laughed and said, "Oh, I think we treat you pretty well."
For the four days I was down, but with an average bet of probably around $125, dropping nearly $1,500 in about 25 hours is not significant.
If I take into consideration the mini suite, food and entertainment, the loss is even less.

Re: Just back from Vegas
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 24-Nov-2003 18:55:23 (#5521)

Nice report! You got your wings I see. You have seen the dragon! You are not afraid and that is a good thing. Down $1500? You can get that back in no time.

"Cost me $3,000 or so but for a progressionist 16 straight is death."

Depends on which progression my dear. <WINK>

no no no! tsk stk!
Posted by Learning to count on 24-Nov-2003 18:59:11 (#5522)

Rob dont start with the progressionist bull! You know the rule!!!

Fish On!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 24-Nov-2003 20:33:01 (#5526)

I knew I would catch a fish with that post! Hope you didn't swallow it to far down. ;> I was just pointing out to Victoria that not every progo goes up after a loss, so it is not certain death. You do understand that right?

Did you know progressing your bet upwards after a win when the count is + is one of the biggest ways to cover the fact that you are a counter? Check out Ian Andersons book Turning the Tables, Revere's BJ as a Business, and Humbles WGBJB. This is not perfect play and cuts your edge, but will give you some longevity. So you do understand that progos make good cover too right?

I have never suggested that you can beat onLand BJ with simple progo's long term. That would be an insult to everyone's intelligence. I am not your Lee Harvey Oswald.

Re: Fish On!
Posted by Learning to count on 25-Nov-2003 06:58:41 (#5527)

No progressions! Period! Its bull sh!te! STOP!

Re: Fish On!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 25-Nov-2003 10:45:10 (#5529)

Tell that to Anderson, Revere, and Humble.

Flat betting will get you no where (unless you can Wong into +2% EV)

Matching the count will get you barred.

You have to LOOK like a gambler, a losing ploppy destined for the heap of lost souls with long faces that walk out the front door onto the pavement saying "FUCX" at the top of their lungs, or silently under their breath, not wanting to proclaim their new place in life to the entire world. Or a high roller that likes to ride his wins, who is able to walk away from losing 10K without asking for a comp or a free room. Who doesn't make a big deal when he is up 10K either.

"They" have their place in the ongoing history of blackjack my friend. When you want to look like a ploppy, you have to cover yourself in ploppy. I know it smells, but it'll get you in nice and close to that big vault you dream about.

You sound like a ploppy!
Posted by Learning to count on 25-Nov-2003 13:33:25 (#5532)

Progressions have no place in card counting. Raising and lowering the bet according to the count is not a progression. Flat betting on wong does work. I still bet per the TC even in wonging. I'm sorry Rob but you are wrong!

Point
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 25-Nov-2003 14:49:36 (#5533)

I think you are missing the point. Have you read BJ as a Business? Turning the Tables on Las Vegas? The Worlds Greatest Blackjack Book? I can quote pages to you if you have these books. The optimum bet is the right bet, but often cannot be made. There are ways of getting it out there with positive attention from the pit. I'll leave is at that "Learning to Count." Looking like a ploppy can be a good thing.

From Nov BJPro Newsletter:

"On the back cover there is an article reprinted from the September 1993 BJF by Dr. 21. It simplifies the Kelly Criterion by showing how it works with 6 red chips and 4 white ones, and 10 bets. Red is a win, white is a loss. You have a 20% edge and should bet 20% of your 1K bank. This will give you a win of $223.06. Betting 15% or 25% gave around a $200 win. Betting 40% (2x Kelly) will actually lose $24.17. Flat betting $200 will guarantee a win of $400 with no risk of ruin, but what if there were 600 red chips and 400 white ones? The Kelly bettor would have $555 billion while the $200 flat bettor will have won $40K. Awesome example I must say."

Use your imagination. It is not hard to see how one could come up with a way to increase your bet sizes within the -5% +5% range around the Kelly as your BR goes upwards and remain a welcome player at almost any casino.

Hard math, soft style.

Crane seeks hidden path and strikes!

Rob ,no room here for kelly sucker systems
Posted by eyes for 21 on 25-Nov-2003 22:51:09 (#5538)

We like to involve known math tactics that work.Kelly doesn't.
Some are so worried about heat and alter their playing
that they actually lose. Lets try to win guys.

Rob -- you are as patient as you are wise *NM*
Posted by John Lewis on 16-Jan-2004 02:25:39 (#6226)

Re: Rob -- you are as patient as you are wise
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 16-Jan-2004 15:57:09 (#6234)

Thank you for noticing. That also tells me much about you. ;>

Been there before
Posted by Victoria on 24-Nov-2003 19:11:16 (#5523)

Rob
I have not been doing this as long or as often as many of you, but long enough to have had solid tastes in both directions. $1,500 for a trip with my betting range is 6 max bets, it's a few doubles that did not work, it is basically minor. As far as fear goes, well I am guilty of underbetting my hands after I had lost 7 or so in a row. I went against the math till I could finally win one. Probably saved a grand or so as it worked out. Someone here will more than likely give me a short lecture against going against the math but human nature causes us to either increase our bets to get it all back quickly or temporarily get conservative, and I do the conservative. The math tells us that the human nature stuff does not matter, but it does in the gut.

Re: Been there before
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 24-Nov-2

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