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Threads 1351 to 1380

Starting out. help is appreciated.
Posted by Will on 19-Sep-2004 04:36:35 (#10165)

Hi, im rather new to card counting and this site.
ive started learning about counting only recently and have begun to practice the hi-lo system with a single deck.
Could someone inform me which counting system is superior? please
from what ive read, im unsure of whether to use balanced/unbalanced or single level/multilevel system...
i realise that unbalanced systems bypass the need to convert the running count to a TC, but theyre less accurate right?
basically, what system should i learn and is memorising basic strat necessary? thanks,
Will

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Starting
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 19-Sep-2004 10:25:34 (#10166)

Basic Strategy is absolutely necessary. You want to know that perfectly, until it becomes autamatic, before you even start to think about counting. Print out a cheat sheet, play some blackjack game on your computer and play until you never need the cheat sheet any more.

As far as the best counting system, it's the hardest one you can implement properly. As a general rule, the harder the system, the more powerful it is. But making any mistakes at all will cause it to lose power. There are balanced and unblalanced, level 1 through level 4 and various sidecounts. Practivce with a few and see which one you can handle best.

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The education of a Novice
Posted by FLASH on 19-Sep-2004 15:13:15 (#10168)

There are many months of practice and study that await you before you attempt to put your money on the table, if you are SURE that you are willing to give up gambling in favor of advantage play.

Learn Basic Strategy perfectly. You must know it 100% and be able to access it without ever having to spend more than a small fraction of a second to recall a B.S. play.

Buy a copy of "Professional Blackjack" by Stanford Wong. I have seen this at Borders and Barnes & Nobles. Of course you can secure it online. Read it thoroughly, and learn . . .

... the balanced "one-level" count therein known as Hi-Lo. (In the future, should you defy all odds and succeed at this endeavor, you should learn "Hi Opt II" or the "Zen Count."

Memorize the most important Indices for deviating from Basic Strategy. Best source is "Blackjack Attack", 3rd Edition by Donald Schlesinger.

Practice until you can countdown a deck of cards face-up in bunches of 2 and 3 cards with 99% accuracy in under 20 seconds.

Learn the crucial mathematical facts of this game. If you are a polished pro player you will need a bankroll of 1,000 units of (fully discretionary) CASH. Even then, you will still lose on 1/3 of your sessions!

Reality is a bitch and a half in THIS twisted world of 21.

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thanks
Posted by Will on 20-Sep-2004 00:13:49 (#10174)

Thanks for the constructive input guys.
I realise that one should never gamble unless the odds are in their favour, otherwise you are certainly throwing away money.
even after a couple of hours, i can run down a single deck using the hi-lo system almost completely correct. but i lose my concentration and stuff up halfway through as well.
1 question guys. is the financial gain from card counting well worth the many hours spent learning the trade? how long is it before the 'enemy' picks up on a counter?
Thanks again,
Will

ps. i was reading up on shuffle tracking, it sounds like it increase the advantage for the player yet it seems very complex. Can any1 refer me to a good site regarding it?

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I suggest KO
Posted by Jman69 on 20-Sep-2004 00:16:38 (#10175)

KO is ultra simple and ideal for 6-8D games. Good single & DD games are becomming harder and harder to find, while 6-8D games are becomming more and more prevalent in casinos today.
KO allows the player to focus more on their cover/act because very little mental focus is required.

With Hilo I have trouble taking with the dealer/players without making errors with the count. I become quiet & highly focused on the game which causes the pit to take notice.

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I suggest Red 7
Posted by Sohrab on 21-Sep-2004 01:45:14 (#10205)

It is as easy as KO and has better SCORE against 6-8 decks unless S17 deep pen. These are very hard to find. Counting a different system provides a little cover too because of pit uses KO sometimes they think you make a mistake when index is different.

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BlackJack Now
Posted by BJKing on 20-Sep-2004 16:00:44 (#10186)

You can't beat Blackjack in the end. Because your luck will run out!!! If you can even out with a 1 win to 8 losses or sometimes event 1 win to 9 losses then you have a chance of crushing the casino... but I've seen where you can lose 10 hands straight.. so it's good to count. but lots of luck and gut feeling too (gut feeling is when your brain is counting cards without you knowing)... the best is to keep track of face cards only!!! There is a way to lose 10 hands and still even out... but out of 8 hands.. there is one winning hand which you didn't play right.. and that can kill you in the end...

I normally just play like the dealer and by myself so no one can mess me up..

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More nonsense
Posted by The Mayor on 20-Sep-2004 16:20:48 (#10187)

This site does not have much tolerance for nonsense, of which this post is a perfect example.

I allowed this post simply to make the point that nonsense is easy, the truth is often subtle and much more difficult to grasp - but it is always worthwhile to pursue.

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I think this guy was on my table last night
Posted by MyCatsCalledEnrico on 14-Oct-2004 16:40:12 (#10470)

actually and the night before that...and the night before that.... :)

MCCE.

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BJ Switch could not be found....
Posted by Carolina Counter on 19-Sep-2004 19:26:36 (#10169)

On my trip a week ago, I was looking for BJ switch in LV and could not find it anywhere. In an earlier thread, this was discussed and the inventor appears to have busted his post on the locations of the game. I looked at the places I recall he mentioned and found none.....anyone seen it?

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It is downtown at the 4 queens.
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Sep-2004 21:06:20 (#10170)

The game is only available at the 4 Queens in Las Vegas (that I know of).

You can get the basic strategy for it here:

http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/bj_switch.html

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Fitzgeralds LV now has it *NM*
Posted by LVBear584 on 19-Sep-2004 21:15:03 (#10171)

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Must have missed it....
Posted by Carolina Counter on 20-Sep-2004 20:29:51 (#10193)

Thanks, Mayor & LVBear, I must have missed it on my pass throughs...looking too hard for some hit & run on DD!

No apology needed Geoff! I just missed the spots where the game was. Good luck with the game!

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BJ Switch *LINK*
Posted by Geoff Hall on 20-Sep-2004 18:34:23 (#10189)

Sorry Carolina

I busted the post because I suppose I don't want too many advantage players going to just 1 or 2 places, in its early days, and hurting the win % of the game.

It's very hard to get casinos to accept this new version of Blackjack due to it's low edge (albeit for correct 'switching').

I could have installed the higher edge version into The 4 Queens but I chose not to. I'm trying to introduce a new Blackjack variation that is not only fun to play but offers a low house edge to the good players. If it gets installed in numerous casinos, after a while, then it will be able to stand up to 'hits' from AP's.

Incidentally, I will be in Las Vegas next week installing BJ Switch into one of the 'Strip' casinos.

Best regards

Geoff

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no one plays the game basic is near impossible
Posted by eyesfor21 on 20-Sep-2004 19:12:16 (#10191)

no carnvial games here..
the mayor says no voodoo or carnival games..
so..

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You misquote me
Posted by The Mayor on 20-Sep-2004 20:05:19 (#10192)

I never said "no carnival games" -- in fact, I said there are opportunities everywhere. "Voodoo" and "carnival" are different concepts.

Carnival games are just games. If you figure out ways of beating them that are based on valid applications of probability theory, involving techniques like counting, shuffle tracking, or hole-card play, then you are on the right path to winning, no matter what the card game.

If you think you can beat games using voodoo method, like stop-loss, progressions, timing or intuition, then please go to www.johnpatrick.com, there is no place for you here.

--Mayor

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correct
Posted by eyesfor21 on 20-Sep-2004 21:07:30 (#10195)

correct mayor.

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ugh...
Posted by gorilla player on 09-Nov-2004 12:51:31 (#10795)

I went to that web site to look around (I was looking at posts near the bottom here and found your link to the patrick site). God, what a mess... I particularly like his idea of surrendering almost all stiff hands, and even 17, against the dealers 10-up. :)

When he was born, did the pediatrician drop him on his head as he held him upside to pop him on the butt and get him to breathing? :)

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Not impossible for me!
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 20-Sep-2004 22:39:33 (#10202)

Oh I love that game. Low house advantage (0.2%), low standard deviation, and low heat simply because it is a "carnival game". If that game ever becomes available around here I will treat it like a football team treats a drunken cheerleader. (Sorry Geoff!)

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Yes its me again lol
Posted by Will on 20-Sep-2004 00:22:38 (#10176)

Hello again,
Just another random question, when people mention "index numbers" to what do they refer? it would seem i have not ventured across this term yet.
Cheers,
Will

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Here is a link to a glossary
Posted by The Mayor on 20-Sep-2004 09:35:22 (#10181)

http://www.bj21.com/glossary/pages/i.html

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Some Sobering Thoughts on BJ Math
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 20-Sep-2004 00:23:31 (#10177)

Played for about 10 hours today. I was way up for a while, about 100 units, then everything just turned to garbage. Sure- if this has happened once it's ahppened a thousand times. I went from a huge, proud pile to cashing out diddly squat in just a few hours.

As I went to my room and counted my diddly squat I realized I was just under EV! Who could ask for anything more? Then I also realized I could have spent all that time working stocking shelves in the supermarket, considered my gas and lodging expenses, and done just as well without dealing with cigarette smoke and the other unpleasantries of a casino. I call this my "Supermarket Criterion"- the value of the unskilled labor of an able-bodied, responsible adult.

Let's assume that you're a green chip player playing with a half-Kelly bankroll- not at all an unreasonable way to do business. That bankroll would be around $40K for a shoe player. A good shoe player with access to good games can expect to make about 2 units per hour or $50/hr in the case of a green chipper. (Let's assume a non-varying betting unit to keep our income fixed) Now you can invest in the market with a similar risk to half-Kelly at about 10% yield, very easily using a margin account and interest bearing devices like bonds and preferreds. That's $4K a year for sleeping. This tells me that the green chipper works his first 80 hours a year for nothing. If he works 160 hours a year he's getting $25/hour for his labor. At least around here most men who have $40K in the bank earn more than $25/hour, and they're quite a bit older than the stereotypical counter.

Now there are a couple of things I've not included in ths analysis. First is taxes which we don't always consider into our math but challenging the IRS in any manner is a gamble in itself and believe me when I tell you if they ever come after you you will wish you had paid up in the first place. The second is that money can be both part of your bankroll and in an investment account doing its job. The drawback to this is that when we have negative flux it takes away from our investment income as we have to sell positions to raise cash. But our flux has a slight tendency to be positive and on every session chances are we will make a profit not a loss. Still the loss of investment income and brokerage expenses has to be factored in, lust like travel and lodging have to be factored into blackjack trip profitability.

What this last paragraph is telling me is that proper management of your bankroll outside of the casino is worth (80 hours/ your yearly playing time) * your yearly EV. And unless you play full time this is very significant. So my very next task is to do a better job of integrating my playing bankroll and my investment accounts, instead of walking around with a roll of cash and pocketed cheques, because that is causing me some very real losses.

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Excellent!
Posted by The Mayor on 20-Sep-2004 09:04:20 (#10179)

Your well developed argument points to one conclusion: find better games than BJ to play or join a BJ team, but solo play at the green chip level (or below) isn't worth it as a profession.

--Mayor

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Re: Excellent! *LINK*
Posted by Rob V. on 20-Sep-2004 13:28:30 (#10185)

I'm reminded of an old Abdul thread. Roll your bankroll into a classic car!

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Mini Computers
Posted by Greek on 20-Sep-2004 18:29:25 (#10188)

I know this is sac-religious to most of you, but since I am new to BJ/Counting I am curious if anyone is familiar with the portable computer/counting device being marketed on the web? Do they work? I've heard that they are illegal in Nevada, but not yet in California? Have the California Casinos come up with a way to detect these devices? What happens if they catch you?

My gut tells me that they sound too good to be true, and if they were true, people would be wearing these things in every casino...

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Computers *LINK*
Posted by Rob V. on 20-Sep-2004 18:55:00 (#10190)

A big felony in Nevada and I think a misdemeanor in AC. From this website:

http://www.cardcounter.com/images/SBNP_07_23_02.gif

I don't know the end result of this law, but computers won't help much if you're just straight counting the California game.

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YES, you [explitive deleted]
Posted by phantom007 on 20-Sep-2004 21:25:29 (#10196)

Nothing personal, just that "Yes, CC computers work."

And "Yes, they are illegal in all jurisdictions".

And most of us "CC's in the trenches" would abore the use of same.

The ave. CC is not trying to get an unfair advantage of a casino, just the mathemnatical advantage calculated therein, using info. Available To ALL!

Besides, If I can CC a DD + Side-Counts, with 99.99% accuracy, then who needs a computer anyhow? Gain should be minimal!

Just my Humble Opinion!

Phantom007.

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If caught using a computer ...
Posted by Geoff Hall on 20-Sep-2004 22:12:11 (#10199)

... in Nevada, you can get up to 10 years imprisonment.

Not sure about other jurisdictions but it's a dangerous thing to think about doing especially if you can count cards.

Geoff

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He's right, counting computers are a fool's game
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 20-Sep-2004 22:33:36 (#10201)

You turn something from being 100% legal to 100% illegal for an increased payoff that could amount literally to pennies per hour. It's not because I'm some kind of purist that I would never use a counting computer, it's simple math. It makes no sense at all.

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CA casinos
Posted by Sonny on 21-Sep-2004 11:03:26 (#10214)

> Have the California Casinos come up with a way to detect these devices? What
> happens if they catch you?

I believe they are illegal in CA now.

What do you think the tribe would do to you if they caught you? The casinos are making them HUGE amounts of money. I certainly wouldn't want to be caught breaking any laws on Indian land. Heck, people have had to sue them for several years just to get the payments for their slot winnings! I seriously doubt that a cheating gambler would get fair treatment under such circumstances.

-Sonny-

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Thanks for Advice- So What Now?
Posted by Greek on 21-Sep-2004 13:16:47 (#10220)

Thank you all very much for the advice, it is appreciated, and as I suspected the computer was too good to be true.

My question now is, what is the best way to learn CC? I have done research on the forums and have found a number of books mentioned. Ideas on which books might suit my available time (1 hour per day) and personality? I don't want to get totally over-whelmed and lose intrest, but on the other hand I do have a decent brain and love math!

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The best way for me
Posted by Tom on 21-Sep-2004 18:22:47 (#10229)

was after I had a good understanding about the theory and math. I practiced card counting in the kitchen untill I was comfortable,then I went to the casinos and played another month or so doing nothing but counting and flat betting the minimum untill I was comfortable,then I saved up a small bankroll and starting betting with the count untill I was comfortable,then I added to my bankroll and pumped up the stakes(carefully)untill I was comfortable. Now you can say I've somewhat built a confident comfort zone grinding and nitpicking away. Keep in mind that this did not happen over night,it took me years.

Good luck and remember to not get too hasty or everything will come tumbling down. It's best to WALK DONT RUN.

Tom

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Las Vegas: The Show
Posted by revereman on 21-Sep-2004 09:29:27 (#10207)

Anybody see it last night? They finally talked abour card counting but that aspect was disappointing. Someone said something positive about counters, like it should be ok since they are only using their brains. But then that was counteracted by "counters can bankrupt a casino." Yeah, right. That segment will probably help casinos since it just showed the counter winning every time she played. Again, yeah right. At least I got to hear the Pina Colada song a few times. I guess the counting theme fell in between the pool scenes and the Jon Lovitz scenes (some of his scenes were actually pretty funny although the dropped bottle was too predictable). Overall, this show is ok but I always seem to be drawn to it.

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Yeah, I saw the episode ....
Posted by The Mayor on 21-Sep-2004 09:45:38 (#10208)

1) There was the comment that pretty soon we would bankrupt the casinos (given free range and an excellent game, I would certainly do my part). This is beyond silly.

2) Using a security camera or a song to relay information about the count is NOT using a cheating device, because such a device is defined to be one that helps predict, or alters, the natural outcome of the game.

3) The casino security thought it was just fine to work out a deal with two of the accomplices so that they would testify against a co-worker. I didn't know that casino security had that legal authority to make plea bargains with felons who were not represented by council.

4) Did you notice how the same people had access to all levels of security and were dressed like they made $100 per year? I think not. Try $15/hour in a dingy little room.

5) The security locked up the kid in the coffee shop and directed that he would finish out his shift in a little room -- that seems at the very least to be kidnapping.

6) Every time the lady wonged in, she won a lot of money. I don't know about you, but I get killed pretty often in rich shoes. It seems like an awful lot of work and risk to play about 20 hands of BJ. She would buy in for $10k and cash out for $50k-$90k on every shoe. If only...

7) Why did every character assume that if they were told to follow the security to a back room or office, then they had to do so?

There has to be a lot more...

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Count communication question
Posted by Sonny on 21-Sep-2004 11:17:30 (#10215)

> 2) Using a security camera or a song to relay information about the count is
> NOT using a cheating device, because such a device is defined to be one that
> helps predict, or alters, the natural outcome of the game.

Is there any way that communicating the count to another player is cheating? I seem to remember Snyder (I think) talking about using sign language. Since card counting is legal it doesn't seem like it would be illegal to share that information with anyone else.

But signaling the hole card is cheating because the information is not available (visible) to all players, right?

-Sonny-

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Signaling hole card is NOT cheating
Posted by LVBear584 on 21-Sep-2004 13:36:41 (#10221)

See Sheriff of Clark County v. Einbender and Dalben, Nevada Supreme Court case number 15797, opinion filed 12/18/1984. The Nevada Supreme Court specifically found that signaling a fellow player at the table as to the hole card is legal. That opinion is still in effect today. I am not aware of any court in any jurisdiction that has found hole card play and one player signaling another player to be illegal, in the absence of collusion with a dishonest dealer.

In the Nevada case, the Court was not presented with the question of the legality of signals from people not playing at the table.

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SWEET!!!!!
Posted by Sonny on 21-Sep-2004 16:40:18 (#10227)

> I am not aware of any court in any jurisdiction that has found hole card
> play and one player signaling another player to be illegal, in the absence
> of collusion with a dishonest dealer.

So two players could sit at first and third base and signal eachother whenever one of them sees a card (hole card, burn card, next card, etc.).

Awesome.

-Sonny-

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Bankrupting the Belagio or Venetian
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 21-Sep-2004 10:20:37 (#10211)

with a 1% advantage and a 25K bankroll. I'm sure ya'll would be bettin'
on me to make that happen. ;-)

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I was excited at first...
Posted by Jaxel on 21-Sep-2004 12:32:25 (#10217)

I was excited when my girlfriend told me about the premise of up the upcoming show. Although I usually watch it anyway for entertainment, and the babes on the show are unreal... I thought it was funny when the "second in command" guy said something like "If we let one do it, we have to let em all do it, and it will bankrupt us" or something like that. But then towards the end of the show, they said "Conters are a dime a dozen, it's the method they are using that could hurt us?

But anyway it went from them worrying about if she was an alone counter (because she was winning so consistently???) but that was quickly dismissed that she wasn't counting. Then of course they were worried about team play, which I think would be the only realistic thing about this story, as far as having any fear, it would be of team play.

But some things come to mind:

Her cover was wicked bad. I mean, if somebody is trying look like a ploppy, using a BS card, why wouldn't they get really excited about winning? I mean, I make it point to seam excited when I get a natural when I have the min bet up there. If she was trying look like a high roller, she blew it when she was asked "Do you have a host" and she replied in snooty way "I don't even know what that is"??

I know they made them give the money back, but after they found out what was going on, why didn't they at least shuffle up on her after she got to the table the last time she won? I think it would be more interesting to see that happen.

And, finishing your shift in the back room is at least kidnaping, but seeing how he would obviously get fired, maybe the few extra hours in his pay check might be helpful.

I mean, I know it's a TV show, but the TV shos lately have put AP's in a bad light I think.

-Jaxel

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Excitement
Posted by revereman on 21-Sep-2004 12:53:57 (#10219)

I, too, was excited when I heard that the show would, at least partly, be about card counting. Youe reservations about her reactions (what's a host?, etc) are that of an AP, not a ploppy. This wasn't a sophisticated operation from a counting perspective and she really didn't know much. She was just looking to make some quick money. What was unclear was who bankrolled the operation because she was betting 10k a hand and none of them (except maybe pretty boy) seem to have much money.

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What is "TILT"?
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 21-Sep-2004 10:10:05 (#10210)

I heard there is going to be a new card game show called TILT. I think it's supposed to air in January on ESPN.

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TILT
Posted by revereman on 21-Sep-2004 10:48:50 (#10212)

I believe it is about advantage pinball players. They play pinball and hit the machine to get an advantage. However, if they hit it too hard and TILT the machine, they have to eat at the Imperial Palace buffet.

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Looks like a Poker Show (nt)
Posted by revereman on 21-Sep-2004 22:07:06 (#10232)

xxxxxx

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Something New
Posted by SammyBoy on 21-Sep-2004 14:46:30 (#10224)

While playing over the weekend in an Indian Casino I had something happen to me that has never happened in over 11 years of playing blackjack. I bought in for an odd amount and was given an extra $20 in chips. I've been overpaid before, paid when I lost, paid on a push, but never given more chips than I cashed in for. It really surprised me, especially when the dealer called out changing X and the floor person just yelled back "change it." My first thought was do I say something or do I just act like I didn't notice. Well, of course I chose the latter. Then I'm thinking to myself, how the hell do I account for this in my records. I decided it was the same as an overpayment while playing and just figured it's part of the advantage of being a sharp player. I never heard anything about it from the floor or anyone else. I wonder if surveillance even noticed, probably not.

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Count it as a table win
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 21-Sep-2004 15:01:36 (#10225)

Dealers always make errors, and correcting the errors against you while capitalizing on the errors in your favor is a game skill, just like tracking a shuffle. I swear I must erase the house advantage with the amount of dealer errors I get. But if you play in a lot of places you might want to keep track of stores and individual dealers that make a lot of errors and play them even more.

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It's just a gratuity to you.
Posted by Tom on 21-Sep-2004 18:06:20 (#10228)

The only thing I include when figuring out my ev are the tips I give to dealers. Some players count comps,mistakes,chip bonuses,finding money on the floor,free valet parking,etc. as part of their ev. They are only kidding themselves by creating a false(misleading) sense of their TRUE ev in respect to card counting and how well and accurate they are actually performing their system of choice...they may never know.

If anyone really wants to find out how good they perform,either disregard the above gratuities all together(as I do) or keep a seperate log.

Tom

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I count all cash.......
Posted by BJ_Player2004 on 21-Sep-2004 21:23:32 (#10230)

I've always counted all cash from play as EV, since it all results from advantage play (i.e., cashback, bonuses, etc are all from BJ, so it counts). Misplays, mispays, money on the casino floor, etc. Cash is king, regardless of source. I do track comps separately, but mainly as a curiosity.

I did just experience this, in fact. About two hours ago, I had a six unit bet out and drew a damn 15 against an 8. I hit for an ace and then a six. I rolled my eyes, waiting for my ill-fated wager to disappear into that damned chip tray. The dealer smiled, said "great hit" and patted the felt. I didn't realize we were playing 22! She finished with the ploppies and turned over a queen. I was sure she's figure it out when she went back around the table to see who was over or under 18, but she paid it! That was a $300 swing, and I did record it as EV. After all, part of our game is taking advantage of mistakes (I did my part by staying cool).

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Sucker bonus bets.
Posted by Tom on 22-Sep-2004 17:19:18 (#10235)

So if you throw out a chip on one of the bj sucker bets...lucky sevens comes mind, and win $5000 you think this is your EV too!? I think not.
The only thing you're doing is giving yourself a false representation of just how well your game really is.

Anyone who gets 50 bucks in bonus chips and loses 500 bucks,lost 500 bucks. Booking the session as a 450 buck loser will also give false results to our TRUE ev in respect to card counting. As i said before, the card counter who includes all theses gtatuities,mishaps and sucker bets will never truly know their EV and where they stand in the REAL world of card counting,..of course I could be very wrong about these type of things though:).

Tom

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Quick comment.
Posted by The Mayor on 22-Sep-2004 19:15:27 (#10236)

I play many side bets with positive EV. Some of them with outrageously high EV (over 70% edge on some bets).

Enough said.

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There is a difference between
Posted by Tom on 22-Sep-2004 20:58:22 (#10240)

a "side" bet and "suckers" bet.

In general it's safe to say that 99.9% of bonus bets qualify as HUGE sucker bets,however I do know of a positive sidebet on a strange BJ table that is .076% ev at a TC of plus 14...I surely wont hold my breath,hee,hee!) I have also heard some stories about internet gambling side bets and bonuses that make people rich,rich and richer. The sad part is I'll never know(or care) about the validity of these precurious statements and whom they concern.

Tom

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Accounting can NOT tell you your EV
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 22-Sep-2004 20:49:36 (#10238)

I can run a sim on my computer and it will take 10's of millions of hands before I can get an accurate estimate of what my EV is. You only get around a million hands in your life at the table. Do you really think that is enough to give you any useful statistical data on the power of your play? If you have to count your money to determine your EV, you haven't done your homework.

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Sure it will
Posted by Tom on 22-Sep-2004 21:12:53 (#10241)

Just keep accurate records without twisting the results and in a few years you will know your aproximate ev. I dont have to play a zillion hands to know where I stand. Now if you are determined to know your ev right down to the nearest hundred thousandth of a percent that's another story. In the meantime I settle for a margin of error that is within plus or minus one tenth of one percent...good enough for me. Anyone who thinks they dont have to keep track of wins and losses is acting like a ploppy who is lost in big dreams and hopes.

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I can prove it can't
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 23-Sep-2004 11:00:10 (#10251)

OK, I have a game that has an expected advantage of 1.320% when I run a 250 million round sim. Running ten separate 1 million round sims gives me the following numbers:

1.086%
1.361%
1.407%
1.207%
1.245%
1.791%
1.497%
1.096%
1.392%
1.429%

Now each of these numbers represents the average for an entire lifetime of blackjack. Which one accurately represents my EV? I can only hope my life will be reflected by sample #6 and not sample #1.

I ran into the same trap as you when I first started playing. For the first few months my profit was consistently about 5 times more than EV. I started to think that was really my EV and there was something wrong with the sim and the way it was calculating it. Then I saw the other side of variance. We have good players here who have been in negative terrritory for over a year, that does not mean their EV is negative. That's why I've gotten away from accounting- it can create illusions that are distracting from the reality of the game.

---

Without accounting,you have nothing.
Posted by Tom on 23-Sep-2004 14:56:01 (#10262)

Sure many newbies have been through winning and losing 10 times their ev,however if they play regularly for years(not 4 trips a year)and keep records and are still losing 10 times their EV they should give up blackjack because their game is lacking.

As you see by your sims the ev is 1.3% and all ten players average over 1% in ev, if one of the ten players ev was only 0-.5% then this guy needs to seriously re-evaluate his game. And how do you do that??, with RECORDS. Sorry to disagree but without accounting and evaluation you have absolutely nothing to know where you stand. Anyone who thinks(or assumes) they will win like a computer and dont need to keep records is dreaming. I track ALL hours of play,the sessions,the shifts,the casinos,my buy-in, and most IMPORTANT of all,my winning and losing sessions. If you(or anyone)plan on becoming a serious card counter, I cant stress the importance of keeping accurate records,it's never too late. If I have the time I might share a graphics chart of my results from the last 8 years. You may be quite surprise to learn that after years of play variance decreases and becomes less and less significant.

Good Day

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But that's different than determining your EV
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 23-Sep-2004 22:32:50 (#10266)

Using accounting to determine how you're doing *relative* to your EV might do it for some people, but that's very different from trying to calculate the EV for a game using real-life results. It would take a real glutton for punishment to play a losing game for years and years in order to collect data to show him he doesn't know what he's doing. If you're not sure you know what you're doing you don't belong at the table.

And if you don't know your EV before you walk into the casino you're making a mistake too. An 8/2, H17, no LS game should not be played, so are you going to play it for 10 years before you realize you're wasting your time? The shoe games I play have a N(o) of around 20,000 which means you have to play 20,000 hands before you can expect to be ahead of the game at all, let alone near EV.

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Ok,what ever works for you,
Posted by Tom on 24-Sep-2004 13:26:04 (#10275)

but it's not a good idea to tell newbies not to keep records,the more experienced card counters know this,actually it's common sense. The best advice you gave this thread is stay away from bad games. If you dont understand what I'm trying to say,sorry. I have no desire(or care)to convince you why you're wrong.

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I count all cash.......
Posted by BJ_Player2004 on 22-Sep-2004 22:12:10 (#10243)

Good post, and I agree. My COUNTING EV is specific to money won on the felt per the rules. I don't calculate my EV from my actual results (althought I check it). Rather, I use SCORES and values from sims. My playing totals are too short-term to use to calculate long-term EV.

However, my OVERALL AP profit includes all cash derived from AP gaming. Cash rebates, airplane ticket refunds for bogus travel, mispays, etc. Hell, changing chips in for cash has a great EV all on its own. After all, profit is profit, isn't it? For example, it would be odd to claim mere break-even status while having a $4K overall profit from AP play, woudn't it? Would a negative EV side bet count? If used to provide cover, you bet! Same with craps used for cover (I don't bet for cover, by the way). However, it's important to be honest and record the losses as diligently as the wins.

Is this the best way to handle the accounting? I don't know. I'm pretty new to this. It just seems to make sense.

---

How about this one...
Posted by MrPill on 21-Sep-2004 21:41:24 (#10231)

.... A few years back....

I was playing at a Canadian casino. After a nights play I had about $750 Canadian Dollars in hand after cashing in my chips and it was time to leave. I took the CND$'s to the casino currency exchange counter. They have two seprate cashiers, one for chips and one for cash conversion.

I handed the cashier the $750 CND, she punched it into the machine as $750USD and it told her that she needed to pay out something like $1200 CND. Since I had CND$ on the counter she proceeded to pay me out in USD$. (Two errors in this transaction)

She gave me a payout of $1200 USD$ when it actually should have been about $450 USD$.

What would you have done? How would you record this?

Regards,
Pill

---

OPM
Posted by oldnewbie on 23-Sep-2004 07:19:55 (#10246)

Other People's Money...That's what we're talking about here. I am honestly surprised that no one has given consideration to the obvious: This is not money you won morally or legally. This is a mistake by the casino that just happens to be in your favor.

If you correct the dealer or cashier when they make a mistake in their favor, then you are morally obligated to correct the mistake made in your favor.

Fair's fair...

Or don't we want to talk about morals here?

oldnewbie

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OPM
Posted by revereman on 23-Sep-2004 10:54:11 (#10250)

You need to distinguish between morality and stupidity.

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LOL!
Posted by SammyBoy on 23-Sep-2004 11:27:52 (#10252)

I've become jaded since playing as an AP. I will only correct dealer mistakes now when I feel it is to my advantage. This is very seldom.

As far as my accounting practices, I don't track tips to the CW or dealer, they are basically taken from my session BR. I wish I did track this but, I don't and will not start. I often play craps for cover and I track this separately. I also track all other forms of gambling separately. Overpayments while playing BJ are added to my BJ counting wins.

---

Actually.......
Posted by MrPill on 23-Sep-2004 11:31:43 (#10253)

....it's the Casino's money. To me there is a big difference.

>>Other People's Money...That's what we're talking about here. I am honestly surprised that no one has given consideration to the obvious: This is not money you won morally or legally. This is a mistake by the casino that just happens to be in your favor.

If you correct the dealer or cashier when they make a mistake in their favor, then you are morally obligated to correct the mistake made in your favor.<<

Since the Casino's don't seem morally obligated to not promote 6:5 Single Deck blackjack for what it is, Let those that don't have a clue on proper play, play. Don't promote the house odds for sucker bets such as Keno and the Big Wheel. Let players continue to play while obviously intoxicated.

Then I feel no moral obligation to correct a Casino mistake.

In a different light I have had other customers in front of me leave or drop money after cashing in their chips. I always make sure that they get their money back. That to me is a moral obligation.

Pill

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Morality of Errors
Posted by Pet's-Pet on 23-Sep-2004 12:30:34 (#10255)

I'm surprised that no one has ever pointed to the fact that in order to be
fair, the casino would have to pay double if you correct one of their
mistakes, since you are (at least theoretically) equally likely to miss it,
in which case you would unfairely lose.
Tho the casinos say they will gladly correct their own mistakes if they cacth
them, I could say with certainty that they catch less than 10% of them, and
I have even seen some dealers stoop down to the level of purpously making
mistakes on clients that for good or bad reasons, they don't like.
Also please note that the casinos I frequent would be in the categorie of the
most regulated.

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Morality of gaming in general
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 23-Sep-2004 15:06:31 (#10264)

It reminds me of a ploppy I saw once who claimed that the game was being controlled by Satan and we were all in danger of Hell for playing it. Then what the hell was he doing in there playing it? Going to Hell would be negative EV if I've ever seen it.

Not to be sarcastic, but to have a moral problem with the things that go on in a casino is very understandable. It bothers me sometimes because people see me winning without realizing what I am doing, think they can win too, and thus I am leading them into a bad situation with incomplete information. But I get over it simply because card counting information is so readily available to all. But if I did have a problem with gaming or any advantage play technique, I wouldn't play.

---

Actually
Posted by oldnewbie on 23-Sep-2004 13:24:27 (#10257)

So by your reasoning, as long as the casino is immoral, then it's OK for you to be immoral, just as long as you're not more immoral than the casino?

So just how many wrongs does it take to make a right?

Just wondering...

oldnewbie

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What you are saying...
Posted by The Mayor on 23-Sep-2004 13:31:19 (#10258)

Here is a broader perspective.

What you are saying is that you have a specific morality, and according to the morality you have, certain actions should be taken in a casino.

That is your morality. But, there is no absolute morality, so you should hardly expect a morality-based argument to sway anyone with a different opinion to your side.

If you want to argue that AP's should not take OPM, try a different line of reasoning. Present your argument as one based on logic and analysis, not morality.

When you tell us what is or is not moral, and then expect us to assume that your morality is absolute, well, that is just a bit of a leap, don't you think?

I would love to hear your reasoned argument that we should not take OPM.

--Mayor

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Hmmm....
Posted by oldnewbie on 24-Sep-2004 07:13:38 (#10267)

Mr. Mayor, you say, "But, there is no absolute morality...".

No offense, but there are about a gazillion people around the world who would beg to differ with that one. I am not one of them. I was just yanking a few chains for a bit of a giggle.

oldnewbie

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Fallacy of large numbers
Posted by The Mayor on 24-Sep-2004 09:57:25 (#10268)

I don't think your argument holds water: large numbers of people are easily deluded. Also, I think that the Christian and Muslim moralities are just slightly different, which is right? Both have a billion people on their side.

But back to gambling.

Here is an example: 10,000,000 people a year visit casinos worldwide who always take even money on blackjack. That doesn't make it the right play. It only makes those people obviously wrong to the very small minority of us who understand the game. Of course, among the 10,000,000, they all think it is the right way to play and that they know the truth. Moreover, if asked for a justification, they can say that this is the common wisdom, it's how everyone plays, and after all, how could 10,000,000 people be wrong?

Get it?

I await your reasoned argument.

--Mayor

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Reasoned argument?
Posted by oldnewbie on 24-Sep-2004 12:45:05 (#10273)

I don't think I've ever had one of those in my life. My arguments tend to get unreasonable real quick. LOL

Anyway, I was just playing devil's advocate; I didn't realize I was starting a whole new debate.

As for me, personally, I don't know if I would correct the casino employee or not. I don't think the employee will have to make up the descrepancy out of his own pocket, like grocery store checkers used to have to do, and I tend to tip generously anyway, so I'd probably just chalk it up to luck and call it even. Kind of like how they program Coke machines to give you a freebie once in awhile because you lose so much in vending machines over the years.

Anyway, isn't it about time to put this thread to rest?

Good counting.

oldnewbie

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Personally
Posted by revereman on 23-Sep-2004 13:34:50 (#10259)

I don't use the casinos immorality as justification for my "immorality." I think each individual and business is responsible for their own mistakes. I don't correct mistakes (in my favor)by the cashier at the supermarket. It is his or her responsibility to give me the correct change. However, I do catch many mistakes (in the store's favor). But I am sure they will check their register at the end of the day and track me down to correct their mistake. I guess I'll be going to h*ll.

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Refreshing! *NM*
Posted by Greasy John on 25-Sep-2004 16:29:47 (#10283)

---

Radio Show Announcement
Posted by The Mayor on 22-Sep-2004 19:45:30 (#10237)

I will be on the Internet Radio at 9AM on Friday 09/24, being interviewed.

Here is a link to the site: http://www.VegasTalkRadio.com.

If you miss it, you can still hear the interview in their archives. But please, click on it live, it will help me get on the air with them again! And I have a lot more to say...

Enjoy,

--Mayor

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Wow now your on radio!!! First the poker show
Posted by Learning to count on 22-Sep-2004 20:56:05 (#10239)

and now radio! Your a regular movie star!!!!!! : ) How come all I get is my photo on casino security cameras.

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9AM....
Posted by suicyco maniac on 22-Sep-2004 21:19:35 (#10242)

What kinda crazy hours are you keeping....Sorry Eliot I will catch it later SM

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9 AM Las Vegas time I assume ??
Posted by Michael Dalton on 23-Sep-2004 08:50:20 (#10247)

I assume this is 9 AM Las Vegas time?

That means 12 Noon EST... right?

Michael Dalton
http://www.BJRnet.com

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Yes, you are correct sir *NM*
Posted by The Mayor on 23-Sep-2004 09:50:42 (#10248)

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Just heard you on the show
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 24-Sep-2004 11:40:44 (#10270)

Certainly impressive. Hopefully there will be more air time for you to elaborate on additional issues and counting techniques in the future.

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It was too short...
Posted by The Mayor on 24-Sep-2004 11:42:14 (#10271)

I wanted to talk about 6:5 and many other issues, but I didn't know how to steer the conversation... then it ended. I hope I get another chance 8-)

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Eliot - something for you to consider
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 24-Sep-2004 10:15:40 (#10269)

How about organizing and starting an annual Advantage Player Tournament where pros take on pros for big $? In so doing, you could create an awareness of the compromised rights of these type of gamblers. Maybe the legislators would take notice and see to it that we gain a few more rights and subsequently we get treated a little better. Just need a TV broadcast network and financial sponsors to step up to the plate. It would be interesting to show how AP’s have to try their best to fly under the radar at all times. During the broadcast, the players would be wearing disguises or masks and using their alias or handle names. Could also be a major endorsement for CC.COM.

---

AP Tourney
Posted by revereman on 24-Sep-2004 13:35:49 (#10276)

Sounds like a good idea but JUST getting a TV netwok and financial sponsors is like saying the Mets just need good pitching and hitting to get in the playoffs.
Also, unfortunately, the world doesn't care how hard APs have it and this wouldn't change anything. As much as I love blackjack, it's not as interesting as poker on TV. Also, tourney BS is different than "normal" BS, so that could cause some confusion. Also, APs are always saying how important the long run is and any tourney would be very short term. The most interesting point might be the betting strategies, not the palying strategies. I like your idea but I don't think the general public is ready for it. I imagine it would add some credibility if particpants anted up for the tourney and the winnings came out of the entry fees. It could be open to anyone, with many APs using their disguises. But I guess that defeats your original purpose. OK, I'm done rambling. I'd like this to work out somehow.

---

Never Say Never for AP Reality TV
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 24-Sep-2004 19:08:31 (#10281)

Just the mere fact that all of the players are not showing their face and the mystique of what exactly it is that pro players really do and go through should draw a lot of interest from the public. Of course, it depends greatly upon the quality of the promos for it and what big name is sponsoring it. After all, doesn’t the general BJ playing public want to witness for the first time a real honest-to-goodness dog-fight between real professional BJ players? The viewers will notice how bets and play strategy change according to the count and other factors toward the end of each round. In fact, there could even be an accurate hi/low RC & TC shown in the corner of the TV screen while the tourney is being broadcast.

The key to its success depends mainly upon who the sponsor is and how much money is a stake. What the heck, if someone is willing to put enough $ into a winners pot, people will tune in. It doesn’t even matter what the participants have to do. We all know this is true. Just take a look at what kind of not-so-interesting people are competing in not-so-interesting stupid games. An AP tourney could be a real authentic Reality TV show. Perhaps it could start with 100 AP participants and eliminate all the way down to the winner. Or just do one show of the six players who made it to the final table. I also think that this type of tourney should be played with 6D and each round should be a minimum of 40 hands.

Hello Harrah’s! You might want to consider being the sponsor on this one before somebody else decides that it would be a real boost to their business.

---

newbie's first counting experience
Posted by euphdude on 24-Sep-2004 12:37:43 (#10272)

Dear All,

I must say I'm quite impressed with my first experience. I had several sessions where I won some decent cash using a 1-5 spread (I just don't have the guts to go any higher than that right now). I also encountered several shoes with a negative running count after two decks and I took a very long well timed bathroom break. When I came back, wouldn't you know it, the people who stayed said their luck headed south when I was gone. I am also impressed with the correlation of the count with the number of good hands I see coming out afterwards. Unfortunately a couple of nights the count soared and the entire table either got 20's or blackjacks except me (who got a 16 and lost). I guess this is just part of the game although it doesn't make losing a large wager any less painful.

As I'm learning more, I have a couple of additional questions I'd like to ask you:

1. What is the best way to memorize full indices? I've never tried to learn indices before, so this will be a first. Are flashcards the right way to go?

2. Do you have any suggestions on improving my focus so I don't lose the count in the middle of the shoe? Although I was very impressed with my results when I could keep the count (and I was fast enough to keep up with all but one dealer), I frequently would lose the number as I was adding up the total of my hand when I had four or five cards (and trying to keep up the running count with each additional card while tallying my hand). I only reliably kept the count throughout the shoe about 50% of the time.

Thanks very much.

---

Congratulations!
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 24-Sep-2004 17:25:57 (#10279)

Congratulations on your first counting experience.

Unfortunately if you are playing a 6 deck or 8 deck shoe a 1:5 spread is not going to reliably get you into positive territory. Remember all the times when the count is low you are losing money. Your wins have to be big enough to compensate for that plus leave profit left over for you to enjoy. Probably 1:10 is the minimum spread you should consider and most shoe players use from 1:12 to 1:20. Spreading your bet across 2 or 3 hands will help reduce your swings very significantly. Also if you are playing shoe you should master the art of Wonging: this is simply leaving the table when the count is bad and/or sitting down and playing only when the count becomes good. Wonging is important.

Indexes: playing shoe there is no need to learn full indexes. There aren't many that are useful and some of them increase your standard deviation more than they increase your win rate so you are better off not playing them. If you are using a level 1 count like High-Low or KO probably no more than 20 to 25 have any real value, and if you are using level 2 like Hi-Opt II or Zen it will be more like 30 to 45. I play Hi-Opt II and use 35 indexes and if I were to use them all it would give me only a couple of percent improvement over what I have. The way I study them is to break them into groups, and practice using them one group at a time. First group: Hard hit/stand. Second group: surrender. Third group: Hard double down. Fourth group: Soft double down. Fifth group: split.

Oh and your accuracy and speed you will get the same way you get to Carnegie Hall... practice, practice, practice! My first time out I went looking for the slowest dealer I could find, and after a few sessions I was looking for the fastest one.

---

a couple of things I did/do
Posted by KennilworthKid on 24-Sep-2004 17:39:26 (#10280)

Congradulations! Sounds like you had a good outing.

As far as learning indexes, Flash cards are a very good idea. I made them up (even taking experience of doing that helps) and gave myself quizzes. Also, I sometimes test myself by making up a table, dealer's up cards across the top with your totals down the side, and see how close I can come to the book.

You may wish to concentrate on learning the Catch 22, or Illustrious 18 with Fab 4 at first (those indices that have the most gain for strategy variation). I think on this site, or advantageplayer.com you can get a list of those variations.

I also practice counting down a deck or two, after removing two or four cards, and seeing if I have the right count for the cards left out. I time myself and try to get it done faster each time. Some folks may laugh, but I figure if I can count down a single deck i less that 30 secs, I am okay. I am amazed that some folks can do it, flipping one card at a time, in less time. Flip the deck with the television or radio on, or best of all, with my wife talking to me.

As far as getting a hand of a lot of small cards and having trouble updating you count, my suggestion is to act dumb and take your time before you announce or indicate you are standing. Usually I know right away if I am standing to taking another card, but I appear to be confused so I can update the count or just look like a ploppie. You can appear to ponder over that as if you were going to hit another card, or ask the dealer what the total is, as if you did not know if you should hit, all the while you are stalling to get the count fixed. I often use my fingers in my left hand, while held below the table to help keep the count while I talk to other players or appear to think about what to do.

A final choice my be to buy some practice software. I use Casino Verite, and I enjoy it quite a bit.

Best of luck.

---

Title - The BJ Zone is NOT optimium!
Posted by zengrifter on 24-Sep-2004 13:53:30 (#10277)

Its too close to Blaine's BJ in the Zone. Come up w/another title now. zg

---

Yeah, I am aware of that conflict
Posted by The Mayor on 24-Sep-2004 15:31:08 (#10278)

However, it is a whole different concept and is integrated into the book... I will reconsider the title.

Thanks ZG.

--E

---

The name is cool...
Posted by Learning to count on 25-Sep-2004 13:34:33 (#10282)

Leave it alone the Mayors name alone will sell the book. Love or hate em the Mayor is on top of the Ap World.

---

How do we get an autographed copy??? *NM*
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 26-Sep-2004 00:08:59 (#10284)

---

I don't know yet, stay tuned... *NM*
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Sep-2004 15:02:58 (#10298)

---

If I may offer an unsolicited opinion...
Posted by Greasy John on 26-Sep-2004 04:35:26 (#10286)

I know that the design of your book is not final but the cover seems to dark and cold--and the Milky Way doesn't have the feel of the proper background. I always liked the cover of Jerry Patterson's BLACKJACK A WINNER'S HANDBOOK. MILLION DOLLAR BLACKJACK isn't bad either. But then why be so pedestrian when you can display the ethereal beauty of the cosmos. What's the tempature out there, 1% above absolute zero? Burrrrr.

---

I agree
Posted by The Mayor on 26-Sep-2004 09:56:12 (#10287)

My editor didn't like the cover either, we are working on it 8-)

---

Blaine's book
Posted by KevinBlackwood on 26-Sep-2004 12:30:14 (#10290)

Rick's book is being redone and will be published by Huntington Press in the very near future and it will not have Zone in the title.

---

---

Play Session Tracking & Scoring Chart
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 26-Sep-2004 10:31:33 (#10288)

I have been using is my own crude hand-made creation and I misplaced the blank original. Like also to know what some of the rest of you keep track of exactly.

Is there a downloadable chart available somewhere with space to make notes and comments? I wanted to create one from my word processor, but it's just too much of a pain for me to set it up. Wish we had a blank one here on the site that we could open and then printable. Perhaps together, we should develop a chart. Might also be a good tool to help teach and show the newer players what all needs to be kept track of and the importance of keeping track of our sessions and other possible occurrences.

---

example
Posted by Illusion on 28-Sep-2004 00:29:31 (#10301)

Try the demo of CVData over at http://www.qfit.com/

I've made my own journal using Excel. My journal has the following info; Date(28-Sep-04), Game(4D, DOA, DAS, RSA, H17), Location(X Casino), Bet Spread (1:12), Hours Played (7), Result ($542.50), $/Hour ($77.50), Total $ (for my life time)

I have totals for Hours Played, $/Hour so I can see how I am doing in the long run.

I keep a another journal witch has expensive on it, so say this trip I spent $140 I would subtract it from the Result ($402.50) and have a new $/Hour ($57.50) I add every thing in this journal hotel, food, comps, EVERY THING. If a trip cost more then I make then I am not showing a profit and I am only fooling myself. I also include time I spend wonging in and out as Hours Played because again I am only fooling myself if I showed I only played for 2 hours when I spent 7 hours at and around the tables.

I keep notes on things like Dealer Jim, older gray hair glass's gives 70%-80% penetration, possible counter himself, pissed off at new management, gives better penetration 80%-85% and keeps his mouth shut on questionable plays when you toke.

---

Thanks Illusion...
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 28-Sep-2004 09:38:47 (#10303)

for the input. Very comprehensive. Haven't found the journal chart yet at qfit. I'll look again later.

---

here's link to demo's at qfit.com
Posted by Illusion on 28-Sep-2004 11:18:15 (#10304)

http://www.qfit.com/downloads.htm

click on
CVData V3.0 and CVCX V3.0 High-Speed Simulators
and it will down load the demo.

---

Thanks, but...
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 28-Sep-2004 22:30:33 (#10310)

can't download it 'till I get more memory installed.

---

My columns
Posted by JackBlack21 on 28-Sep-2004 18:17:00 (#10306)

Date Site Game Won/Loss Mininum Duration Ins hits Ins Attemps Ins Earned Comments Comps

I also have a summary page which is much easier on the eyes. It's broken down by a grand total and total by year:

Total Earnings Per Hour Hours Played Ins % Ins earned(since 04) Comps

03 Earning 03 Per Hour 03 Hours Played Ins % 03 03Comps

---

my charts...
Posted by suicyco maniac on 28-Sep-2004 21:55:42 (#10307)

are so simple they would piss everyone off :-)

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Journals or Session Tracking Charts
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 28-Sep-2004 22:41:49 (#10311)

Be really nice if we had 3 or 4 charts options we could just click on and quickly download and then print the one that best suits our needs. One could be very comprehensive like what JackBlack21 uses. Another could be quite simple: Date / Casino / Win / Loss / Game Type / Session Duration / Remarks

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Pay No Attention to the Man Behind the Curtain.
Posted by The Great Oz on 26-Sep-2004 15:04:47 (#10291)

I've been asked to post this.

Ample time has passed, so I feel comfortable in doing so.

Know that the personalities and descriptive details have been altered for obvious reasons, but the content and implications remain intact.

Several months ago, finding employment had become increasingly difficult. I worked in retail stores. I did odd jobs - construction and handyman stuff. I'm well educated and have a very solid career history, but sometimes the well runs dry and you find yourself taking any job that helps you pay the rent.

A former co-worker's sister happens to work at a nearby casino in the HR department. When an interesting job opened up, he asked her if I could apply. The job opening was the graveyard shift in the surveillance department. It's important to note that, though I've been to Vegas with him on work related things, he is not familiar with anything more than my passing interest in whiskey and poker.

I spent a long time wondering if applying for a casino job was a bad idea. The AP world is ripe with paranoia, and trust amongst AP players is both hard to gain and easy to lose.

Plus, I'm the kind of person who likes to be good at what he does - would I be good at this? Ultimately, I decided that I would approach the job with trepidation, and if I didn't like what I saw, I'd pull out.

I interviewed with several HR people and was generally approved...Mostly, the HR department sees under-educated wait-staff, dealers transferring from other casinos, and houskeeping would-be's with boyfriends in tow to translate for them.

The first lady I interviewed with commented that they didn't see many college degrees come through and that she hoped I would take the job (even though it hadn't been offered yet). Next, I had to meet with the head of the surveillance dept.

We chatted a while in his office. Little probing questions were tossed about, as expected. Do I gamble? Sure, I go to vegas now and then...I like craps and roulette, particularly the dollar tables, I play poker too, but poorly. I'm familiar with most of the games, and yeah, I've read the MIT book - it was a best-seller, you know... But I'd need a lot of training on the Asian card games and anything that used tiles. I'm good with computers though. The graveyard slot is 11PM to 7AM. Could I handle those hours? I didn't know, but was willing to try.

He said that the biggest concern for his department was turnover. They lose a lot of people who get bored or frustrated with the work. Frankly, they were tired of training people only to lose them a few months later. I'd have a separate entrance, and would not be allowed to gamble on the premesis. They wanted to hire externally because they feared existing relationships could contribute to bias. They worry as much about their dealers as they do their players.

The casino in question is not a vegas style casino...it's not player vs. the house...instead, it's player vs. player....the house takes off of the top. So surveillance was particularly interested in monitoring for teams, outfits who banded together against the casino's whales in order to drain them dry. The casino, he assured me, wanted to provide fair gaming to all of its patrons. They've busted teams before.

I would be taught the rules of each of the games, and I would be given a crash course in various methods of dishonest play, from swapping Pai Gow tiles to bet-capping to the simple snatch-and-grab.

It was impressed upon me that the pit would rely on my eye in the sky to make decisions worth 10's of thousands of dollars. These decisions would need to be made accurately and quickly.

I'd also have to spend a lot of time swapping VHS tapes. Digital systems, he explained, were too buggy and cumbersome, and even most of the large Vegas casinos relied on VHS technology.

That's not to say that the technology wasn't impressive. From his desk, the Head of Surviellance used keyboard/joystick combination to control a large flatscreen display. He showed me the casino exterior, the cameras in the parking lot, the cameras designed to capture license plates.

He showed me the camera watching over the surviellance room, answering the age old question of who watches the people doing the watching. I have no idea who monitors him, but I'm sure that someone does.

And then he showed me the various views of the casino floor. Employing a 52x digital zoom, he showed me which players cleaned debris from under their fingernails in the morning. He pointed out which dealer had dandruff. He swiveled to get the best headshot of a semi-famous player.

It was unnerving how much detail they could get, in full color. from any angle. It was also pretty evident that operating the controls was a learned skill. He was showing off, but the controls were touchy...and at one point it took him a few minutes to get the camera to focus on a stack of chips.

While he did this, I took in his desk. What struck me was the piece of paper thumbtacked to the wall. On a piece of paper torn from a yellow legal-pad, was the breakdown for the classic high-low count.

2-6 = +1
7-9 = 0
10-A = -1

It bothered me...why was it there? There was a Basic Strategy chart taped next to it. Did the head of surviellance need a cheat sheet for high-low? What about other counts?

We took a walk to visit the control room. The vast array of VHS decks and electronics was impressive. Three operators sat at terminals and rotated through the screens in an odd approximation of channel surfing...but every channel was the same. The room was quiet...no radio playing, very little conversation....just keyboards clacking and the quiet hum of the equipment.

The phone rang...there was a discrepancy...did the dealer at table 25 mis-pay the player at position 3? The operator rewound and peered closer to his screen. Apparently, they can zoom and pan and tilt in real-time, but once it's on tape and over, they can't do anything but squint. He did his best to visually count the chips and I got a better appreciation of the side-stripes on the chips. The dealer was right....and the game went on.

As we walked back to the Surviellance head's office, we passed a lanky guy in brown coveralls. That was one of the two camera tech-guys. The cameras go down a lot and they do their best to keep as many of the key cameras functioning as they can. He seemed like a nice enough guy.

And then came The Offer.

They liked the cut of my jib and would be happy to have me on board...the only thing left for me to do was to get a gaming license (as all casino employees must), and that could be taken care of at the nearby police station. My hours would be 11PM to 7AM, but I would be on-call 24-7. Overtime wasn't uncommon.

They offered me a starting salary of $9/hour. They usually start people at $8, but they thought I was a great candidate. They'd probably up that by 50 cents in a year.

I left the casino and headed home. The drive took me an hour and by then, I'd made up my mind. I couldn't take the job.

Part of me wanted to take it. The experience the insight, the training...it would have been great. But I would have been risking too much. My wife wouldn't have loved it either since she has a day-job.

Ultimately, the salary was too low to even consider the job. I made $12.50/ hour in retail and they didn't expect me to make decisions that could cost the company what amounts to many people's annual salary based on my impression of an image on a video monitor.

So, there you have my experience.

I always figured that the eye in the sky had to be the best job going. You'd have to pay those guys enough to keep temptation or boredom from swaying them against you. They'd have to be super-qualified. Probably ex-miltary code guys. They'd have all the hottest tech at their disposal.

What I found was a some slightly fancy equipment that was being operated by overworked, underpaid guys who ate their meals at their stations and were probably counting the hours before they'd get the chance to see natural light again.

Make of it what you will.

---

Thank you!
Posted by The Mayor on 26-Sep-2004 18:31:44 (#10292)

I asked you to write this up. Thank you for doing so, it is a great story. More enlightening that you could know...

--Mayor

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Nice!
Posted by SammyBoy on 26-Sep-2004 18:58:59 (#10293)

Thanks for the info and excellent perspective. I can't wait to get my hands on Cellini's book, I should have it tomorrow. It's hard to believe they pay only $9 per hour. A kid in high school that has never worked before can make $7 per hour in retail. Pretty sad, but I'm not complaining.

I hope things turn around for you.

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Interesting. Thanks for posting. *NM*
Posted by ZOD on 26-Sep-2004 20:36:41 (#10294)

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Thanks for the read!
Posted by syph on 26-Sep-2004 21:25:09 (#10295)

It helps put into perspective some of the more entertaining moments I`ve had.

Incidentally, you didn`t ask, but online poker is really taking off right now.

You can multi-table online poker for a fraction of the risk that counting entails. The bonus you get from depositing any money will more than cover your initial "training"

(and for NL, that training period is pretty short!)

Drop by www.twoplustwo.com for all your poker questions. You seem like a nice guy, there is no reason to work for some dead end job with miserable wages in this day and age.

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thank you
Posted by Grift on 27-Sep-2004 16:43:06 (#10299)

thanks for the insight.most of us envision some kind of brilliant folks watching us from above! ha,ha,ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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POM Nomination....OOPS!....wrong site! *NM*
Posted by phantom007 on 28-Sep-2004 22:25:44 (#10309)

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Enjoyable read! *NM*
Posted by Greasy John on 27-Sep-2004 19:33:20 (#10300)

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Very enlightening reading ...
Posted by V-man on 28-Sep-2004 22:20:10 (#10308)

You seem to be very observative. And the way you describe, IMO, the job does not suit you.
Your job tour description make me remembering my first job in the big city. It's tough to get started. But I beleive your turn will come. Wish you good luck in the future.

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6:5 in AC (Link)
Posted by BlackJackHack on 27-Sep-2004 11:04:32 (#10296)

Bad news - 6:5 has surfaced in AC

http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/business-casino/092704Single_deck.cfm

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They'll play it too
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 27-Sep-2004 14:04:48 (#10297)

I'm sure people will swarm to those tables, what with the general poor level of play from AC ploppies. The bad news is they're not going to be getting rid of any slots to put in 6:5, they'll displace blackjack tables. The good news is it might help cut down on the crowds at the real BJ tables and make the games somewhat more playable.

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untill ploppies get sick of it,..wont take long. *NM*
Posted by Tom on 28-Sep-2004 13:01:44 (#10305)

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Surrender "For More"......My Single 21 Experience.
Posted by phantom007 on 28-Sep-2004 23:30:03 (#10312)

During recent Tunica trip, was playing BJ tourney at "Ball-Me's".

Killing time between sessions (I ultimately lost in the Tourney), I ventured to one of their 2 Single21 tables.

FYI, "Single-21" is a "mutant" of SF-21....both games are SD, offer Late Surrender, and then offer "EVEN LATER SURRENDER", i.e., Surr. after hit(s) and/or DD's, DD anytime, some 5-6 card payoffs, etc. Further, in Single21, "Touching" Like Cards can split, excluding to avoid a bust.

For example, if I were dealt a 6 then an Ace, then drew another Ace, I could split Aces, still play out my A,6, etc. But if I were dealt a 6,10, then hit a "10", I would bust, NOT play out my 16 plus my "touching" 10-card.

And, unlike SF21, wherein only "single-suited BJ's" pays 3:2, and usually Diamonds, in Single21, all Suited BJ's pay 3:2.

ANYHOW, played the game. 3 Rounds to 3 Players (SUCKS!). Spread 3:1....previously had overheard PC's phone conversation "with...someone upstairs"...

"We have a CC on Table 007 (Damn, my Table). He is a Tourney Player. We need to make a Decision! What should we do?" Apparently, they chose to leave that poor guy alone. GRIN!

BUT, as is my style, I TIP in +EV situations. My "Big Bet" was topped by a $1. tip-bet "riding-on-top" for the dealer. However, the 10,6 I was dealt deserved a "Surrender" against Dealer's 10 in a +++ Ct.

I thus Surrendered 1/2 of my bet, and expected return of 1/2 of my "Tip Bet" as well....."I am sorry sir, but we no longer have 'quarters'"....therefore, took my "RIDING $" in full.

I said, "Fine, next time, I get the extra!".

But "Next Time", Dealer took it again! I called over PC, who said this was "standard policy".

Luckily, I pounded their ASS anyhow....a little skill, and alot of LUCK in Triple-Quad. Splits, with DD's to boot.

KUDOS to Ball-Me's.....EXCELLENT Tourney! Decent Room, Great Food, and Wildcard #36 won 7th Place ($3,500.), and Wild-card #7, for the Final Table, won the whole she-bang, $62K!

phantom007 ended up with a $500. Ball-Me's flannel shirt, and lots of experience....basically next tourney, bet the MAX!

ph.7.

---

Sounds like an interesting time
Posted by The Mayor on 29-Sep-2004 10:48:17 (#10314)

Could you NOT surrender the $1 rider bet and play the hand out, while surrendering your main bet? I mean, that $1 is for the dealer, so she should get to play the hand... Otherwise you are surrendering 100% ... that can't be +EV.

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Lazy Dealers...
Posted by Dog Hand on 29-Sep-2004 21:45:16 (#10317)

phantom007,

You probably had a lazy dealer who didn't feel like doing the math.

Since suited BJ's pay 3:2, I assume they have $2.50 chips (generally pink or blue) so they can pay, for example, $22.50 on a $15 3:2 win. If not, do they also cheat the players out of $0.50 on these plays, too?

Now, if your total bet is $11 (2 reds and 1 white), then when you surrender you should receive $5.50: that's one $2.50 and three whites. However, I've often had lazy dealers who simply want to take the red and the white, and return just one red. I've found that when I point out the correct payout, they grudgingly oblige.

Just my $0.50 worth!

Dog Hand

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No....I called over PC who verified that "ODD-Surrenders go-to-the House". *NM*
Posted by phantom007 on 05-Oct-2004 02:17:35 (#10372)

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"Odd Surrenders"
Posted by Dog Hand on 05-Oct-2004 21:15:47 (#10384)

phantom007,

An "odd surrender" is a surrender of an amount that cannot be halved using the standard cheques at the table. For example, assume a player on a nickel table surrenders a $7.50 bet (one red plus one pink). In a perfect world, the player and the casino would each receive $3.75. However, since most casinos don't have $0.25 cheques, they round down and so keep $4.00 and return $3.50 to the player: that's an "odd surrender".

However, as long as the casino has $2.50 cheques (or $0.50 pieces or cheques), any integer dollar bet on a nickel table can be halved.

Dog Hand

---

My worst losing streak...
Posted by zengrifter on 29-Sep-2004 16:35:11 (#10315)

... occured during the last 11 days. I lost 11 days in a row - 330 $10u and 330 $5u. Throughout much of it I ruthlessly abandoned negative counts (1-2D) giving me an effective net-equivalent spread of 1-10 in 1D and 1-20 in 2D.

Expecting it to turn around I played longer hours (perhaps 60 in all), "rolling up the sleeves and putting in the hard work."

Towards the end, I tapped out $5k, it began to look like a Greek tragedy - split aces become 4 aces, the dealer made 4,5,&6 card 21s at high plus counts repeatedly.

I made my final 100u stand at the Plaza 2D, the best game in town.

SPLAT! zg("will count for food")

"Ahh, the swings!" -K.Uston

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It's enough to blur science and religion
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 29-Sep-2004 20:11:15 (#10316)

You know, we see things like this happen, and it's easy to doubt what we are doing. We trust the science of the math, and dismiss the seemingly impossible bad luck as superstition and illusion. On the other hand, maybe the faith in the math is the religion and we are disregarding the observations of our eyes and our bankroll.

Whatever way you like it, it's rough. Even for you as one of the masters of the game. Just imagine what these streaks feel like for us journeymen.

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The Odds + Update
Posted by zengrifter on 04-Oct-2004 02:54:54 (#10356)

I would guess the odds of the negative flux I encountered to be about 50-1. In the meantime, I have won about 120u in the 3hrs of play subsequent to my loss announcement.

Oddly, though we know the "streaks have no memory" I have found it typical that my biggest winning streaks often follow my biggest losing streaks. zg

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Lately...
Posted by suicyco maniac on 04-Oct-2004 04:23:18 (#10357)

My biggest losing streaks follow........my biggest losing streaks SM

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You so funny! *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 04-Oct-2004 19:15:13 (#10366)

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They are already blurred, for those in the KNOW...
Posted by zengrifter on 04-Oct-2004 19:16:17 (#10367)

... but not enough! zg

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In search of a "subtitle"
Posted by The Mayor on 30-Sep-2004 19:01:26 (#10323)

If I may call on your collective wisdom.

The title of my first bj book is "The Blackjack Zone." Its purpose is not to present high level advice to the advantage community; rather, it is meant for the guy who sucks and is tired of sucking and wants to know why. I spend most of the the book discussing basic strategy, casino comportment, and mythology. I do a quick and dirty job on the High-Low system, then discuss the attitude of the advantage player, and give a few tips and hints for going forward to more advanced advantage play. I finish with a number of essays (and an interview) that give a lot of depth to the experience, without the details. I rail against 6/5, and casino abuse of advantage players.

One other thing I do is to give a lot of softer material -- material that could be considered "what BJ can teach me about life." That is the subject of this month's podium, so you get a sense for what I mean.

So, I am open to ideas for a subtitle. The ones I had were both nixed by my publisher:

"Winning at blackjack and life..."
"Lessons in winning at blackjack and life..."

And, if you want to "slag" me a bit, or give really absurd subtitles, that's fine. Anything that works to help the creative juices to flow...

Thanks in advance,

--Mayor

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winning at BJ and life...
Posted by suicyco maniac on 30-Sep-2004 19:59:28 (#10325)

Reminds me of Andersons Turning the Tables SM

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Blackjack- Play to Win *NM*
Posted by Greasy John on 30-Sep-2004 20:00:44 (#10326)

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Maybe this will get something started
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 30-Sep-2004 20:11:34 (#10327)

1) Life's stings and Black Jack's swings.
2) Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Black Jack.
3) Lessons of Life and Sessions of Black Jack.

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an opinion
Posted by Tom on 30-Sep-2004 20:57:51 (#10328)

Hi Mayor, you posted a picture of the cover and subtitle but I cant find the thread. My first impression of the cover and name title was a sort of gloomy twilight zone effect. The sub-title if I remember correctly was about how to learn winning BJ and use this strategy with life,or something to that effect. You almost imply that life evolves around BJ(well,maybe for some of us:)but since your book is directed at beginners and ploppies, I would change both the sub-title and twilight zone cover effect to happy pictures of bright colors(whatever that may be) and make the subtitle less serious or dramatic. In other words the typical BJ player could not care less about how or why life evolves around blackjack. They just want make a few bucks. Does your new book teach count systems,bet spreads,risk of ruin,etc? If so, a subtitle as simple as "Learn to lose less to win more." may be more attractive or somthing of that effect,but the twilight life stuff sounds and looks too much like a dreamy soap opera of a sort. Just my humble opinion.

Anyhow good luck with your book,
Tom

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Well first of all...
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 30-Sep-2004 21:50:10 (#10329)

... I wouldn't recommend a book about "BJ" to a guy who sucks. Risk of ruin is way too high there, and somebody could end up being lifetime stuck, if you know what I mean!

How about "Casino Game Theory and Practice Applied as General Life Skills"?

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The Blackjack Zone
Posted by Sohrab on 01-Oct-2004 02:08:06 (#10332)

Success in the casino and in life.

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A Random Walk With An Upward Trend *NM*
Posted by easyrider on 01-Oct-2004 20:05:20 (#10338)

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WHY YOU ARE A LOSER (AT BLACKJACK) *NM*
Posted by Feep on 01-Oct-2004 14:34:23 (#10335)

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Ah - so - what's my cut of the book deal? :-)
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 01-Oct-2004 20:21:27 (#10340)

1) EMPOWER YOURSELF WITH SIMPLE BASICS
2) KNOWLEDGE IS POWER - LIFE & BLACKJACK

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Honorable mention
Posted by The Mayor on 01-Oct-2004 21:35:11 (#10343)

According to the experts, I should expect to earn 4 figures selling this book...

However the decimal point will take 2 of the figures.

Thanks for the good suggestions.

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Blackjack - Take The Money And Run!
Posted by Shark on 02-Oct-2004 15:53:37 (#10349)

Especially if you cover wonging and hit and run strategies. Shark

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That title has been taken..
Posted by Greasy John on 08-Oct-2004 15:09:48 (#10418)

by author Henry Tamburin--good book too.

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How Bout "So You Want to be a Gambler!" Jst Kidding! *NM*
Posted by wongout on 08-Oct-2004 22:27:34 (#10422)

---

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Some odd results from my sim
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 30-Sep-2004 23:21:16 (#10330)

I've always been under the impression that less crowded tables or heads-up are preferable to full tables for shoe games. I've run some sims to test that effect and came up with some surprising results.

Game parameters: 6D, 1.5D pen, S17, DOA, DAS, LSR. BU=$10. Count= HO2+A, 35 indexes. Wong out at -2. 1:16 spread. Sims were 150M rounds each.

6 players: Win Rate/hr= $34.90 IBA=1.459% DI=6.42
5 players: Win Rate/hr= $35.28 IBA=1.474% DI=6.51
4 players: Win Rate/hr= $34.86 IBA=1.459% DI=6.43
3 players: Win Rate/hr= $35.15 IBA=1.473% DI=6.49
2 players: Win Rate/hr= $33.77 IBA=1.425% DI=6.26
1 players: Win Rate/hr= $23.56 IBA=0.806% DI=3.52

What happened with 1-2 players??? The small differences between 3 and 6 players I can attribute to the small 150M round sim, but still I would expect 3 plyers to be significantly better than 6 players. At 2 players we see a significant drop in performance, and with 1 player the game goes all to hell.

My understanding was, especially for a Wonger, results should drop as the number of players increases because a Wonger skips the bad counts and plays the good ones for as long as they are around, but with a lot of players the good counts get played away more quickly. Anybody have any idea why I'm seeing the numbers I'm seeing? Thanks.

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Shot in the dark
Posted by Illusion on 01-Oct-2004 01:04:12 (#10331)

If I had to guess and it's only a guess, When the count went south with more players it would take less time for it to go back to the positive. How ever I would expect the curve to be the same as for favorable situations. So what I am thinking is when your heads up or 2 or three players your spending more time waiting for the count to go back to the positive where with a full table you would be playing more often even if your hands per hour are less.

That make any sense at all?

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interesting thread on a ploppy board...
Posted by gehrig on 01-Oct-2004 17:05:33 (#10336)

viz. "las vegas advisor" free forum. the thread relates to the current pestilence, 6:5 bj games. it seems that two posters opine that the game is (somehow) beneficial to the 21 player. respondents within the thread suggest that the two proponents are one in the same or at least, they/he/it may be employed by the gaming industry. one of the proponents uses a handle "craps master" which kinda sums up his gaming prowess.

the only other advocate of the 6:5 game i've noticed is the "authority", max rubin, who so stated that the 6:5 game was "good" for the player. he could be correct if the player held a vast shareholder position in a publically traded licensee. of course, rubin is an author of a guide to twisting comps from casinos. that said, a player enjoying those "good" games as the 6:5 21, or the carnival games, should expect substantial comps (@ 30-40% of his losses).

were i to be paid by the gaming industry, as well, i'd conjure up a thread attesting to the benefits of the "new", 6:5 21 game. what's next ? a thread, a la "craps master" mebbe adulating the big 6, by "big6whacker" ?

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Haven't seen it, but...
Posted by The Mayor on 01-Oct-2004 19:03:29 (#10337)

There is a good argument a player could make that 6/5 is good for us. It goes like this: the more confidence casinos have that they are unbeatable, the more they will relax and become sloppy in their administration of all the games.

Or try this: 6/5 is more likely to have flashing dealers than most other blackjack in LV (since it is dealt from a single deck), and because it is a carnival game, it won't be watched as closely.

I don't know if these are the points being made on lva.com, but these are a couple that speak for the positive impact of 6:5 (I can't believe I'm saying that!). Indeed, the last flasher I found was at a 6:5 table.

The LVHCM operates at the highest level: when you read what they say, you have to imagine *who* is saying it to really understand what it means.

--Mayor

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who/what is the poster ?
Posted by gehrig on 01-Oct-2004 20:09:31 (#10339)

as to hoping for less experienced/poorly trained pitchers on that 6:5 game seems happenstance. no different than shopping sawdust joints on "full pay" 21 games for weak dealers.

for the non-advantaged player, the only value i'd cypher is if the procedures of the game and whatever variations were offered, would result in far fewer hands per hour. but then we already have the royal match games for slow play, and many of those particularly downtown, still pay 3:2. those downtown, break-in joints coupled with royal match, and inebriated punters, are often miserably slow.

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An additional benefit
Posted by alienated on 01-Oct-2004 22:17:50 (#10344)

I haven't seen the thread, but I think that from their perspective, 6/5 has the added benefit of not appealing to card counters. If all games were 6/5, there might be no counters, which would probably be to their liking. Game protection might become more lax, and conditions for stronger forms of advantage play would improve.

I'm not a hole-card spotter and I don't generally share this hostility towards counters, but I must admit, card counters can be a pest. They mess up conditions a lot. Some are arrogant, so if you try to take actions to neutralise the effects of their presence, they will occasionally even go out of their way to mess things up further.

For instance, one thing that is often critical with my style of play is the number of open boxes. Luckily, in the places I play, back betting is normally standard. This, combined with common supersititions of regular gamblers, makes it quite easy to engineer the right number of boxes for a particular round of play most of the time.

However, card counters ignore such concerns, usually because they think they 'know' that there is no basis to them. Usually, with back betting allowed, this does not matter too much. If a counter wongs in and opens another box, I can always close my box(es) and back bet them. But sometimes they are obnoxious. I have had occasions where the counter deliberately tries to undermine my play (of course, they do not think they are foiling an advantage play, but merely taunting a superstitious 'ploppy').

For example, on one occasion that sticks in my memory, a counter joined a table and opened a box where three boxes were already open. I was slightly annoyed, as this was a money round. But no problem, I closed my box and bet behind another player, to keep the number of boxes to three. Only problem is, the counter saw this, and purely for his amusement, disdainfully opened a second box. I began to withdraw my bets when another player closed a box to keep the number at three. That is, two players at the table had now voluntarily closed their boxes to accommodate the counter. The counter sneered, and placed bets in all free boxes (six of them). The rest of us removed our bets, and he placed a seventh bet in the remaining box. I would never usually wish bad luck/negative flux on another player, but I must admit, I wanted the dealer to pull a 'backdoor blackjack' on that round.

Of course, irrespective of the result, the counter 'knew' that he had made a good play, and that our concern about the number of boxes was foolish superstition. He, on the other hand, was playing a 'strong' game, or so he thought. But what was his expectation on that round? Half a percent? One percent? He cost me my edge for that round (conservatively estimated at roughly 500x his percentage edge, or perhaps 100x in dollar terms), plus a lot of time looking for it and still more time hanging around waiting for it. And he will never have the slightest inkling that anything was going on inside the heads of the other players at that table other than superstition and folly.

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the issue is that the thread was on a ploppy board.
Posted by gehrig on 01-Oct-2004 23:15:05 (#10345)

rebuttal was ostensibly from two unskilled players that the game was somehow wonderful, "the best thing that's happened" for bj. even the resident ploppies complained that they finally realized that the 6:5 game was unfair. the suggestion arose that the two proponents of the new version were one in the same, or perhaps, casino employees. the defense of the 6:5 game was in the least, circuituous, and unrelated to the inferior payouts when compared to similar speed games dealt at 3:2.

i'm amazed that the "authority" max rubin would shill for the house. he was some level of expert/color commentator on a cable bj show. he stated that the game was good for the player. this is absolutely dishonest. if the shortened pay on the 21 game is beneficial for the player, then so must be shortened pays on all other games be similarly "beneficial". is the royal match option "good" for the player ?

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There are NO benefits to 6/5.
Posted by The real scoop on 02-Oct-2004 01:35:07 (#10346)

Have you guys lost your mind?

So you had a bad experience with a card counter,big deal. Must he we now be punished with all 6/5 crap so some flake(s)over at LVA can peek in peace!?. Talk about a selfish jerk(s) at LVA. This troll hates all card counters(authors included)and wants to eliminate them. He claims 6/5 is the best thing that's ever happened to Vegas and wishes ALL BJ tables were 6/5 so he can play his peek a' boo game in peace. Furthermore,this troll claims us card counters bad talk 6/5 because it is not in our interest,well maybe it isn't,but that dont mean it's a good game,does it? Then,he touts about how wonderful he thinks the game actually is and uses his peek a' boo strategy for an excuse. This troll has also been virtually kicked off all BL message boards on the internet due to causing many disturbances and having no credibility. The only peek a' boo games this troll plays is from the other side of the fence.

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Think outside the box.
Posted by Syph on 03-Oct-2004 07:25:41 (#10351)

The SCORE for a perfect holecard game exceeds $10,000/hr.

Best,
Syph

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the issue remains that hole carding is not..
Posted by gehrig on 03-Oct-2004 08:05:35 (#10352)

implicitly part and parcel of *any* game. this is a dealer training (or player-agent cheating) issue. my many years at 21 tables have not found any direct linkage between house rules and hole carding.... or warps, or dealer errors, or tolerance for bet spreads while winning. your philosophy would dictate that one should then play the 1:1 pay games in town.... the same measuring stick must be applied thereon. why would not hole carding be even easier on 1:1 games than 6:5 games ? then you must look for games where a dealer wins ties. so far, those games seem to be limited to kitchen tables. but with the apologist acceptance of the 6:5 game, who knows ?

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A minor disagreement.
Posted by Syph on 03-Oct-2004 19:57:29 (#10353)

I understand your point regarding holecard play being more a dealer training issue than dependant on a 6:5 payout.

Fair enough, but as a practical matter, you must admit that the pitch game method is far more susceptible to holecarding (just as certain shuffle machines are), than shoe games.

That being the case, I would argue there is somewhat of a coorelation between house rules and "alternative" advantage play.

Take your example:

If the 1:1 games required the dealer to learn three to four times as many strategies to protect her holecard as the 6:5 game, it would be the new best thing.

Best,
Syph

(ps Where`s Clarke Cant these days?)

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if you point is valid...
Posted by gehrig on 04-Oct-2004 00:03:41 (#10355)

then perhaps you should demand that all 21 games in nevada should become 6:5 or less, snapper pays. do you think that just because some high end joint changes to a 6:5 payout, that those same dealers will immediately forget how to deal ? otoh, most of the poorly skilled dealers in town are *not* on the strip. rather they are at break-in joints downtown, pitching 3:2 games.

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To be completely honest ...
Posted by Syph on 04-Oct-2004 10:43:08 (#10360)

I couldn`t care less whether it`s 3:2 or 6:5.

Just as long as it`s a pitch game.

But, hey, what do I know. I developed a fetish for Three Card Poker last time I was in Nevada ...

Best,
Syph

(But as I made mention on another board. I am all for encouraging games that can be beaten by counting. Counters are sitting ducks, waiting to be plucked. Takes the heat off the real players.)

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as to encouraging other punters...
Posted by gehrig on 04-Oct-2004 13:11:53 (#10363)

exactly ! the proficient 21 players regardless of their (legal) skills, will take care of themselves. for the 21 game to remain as a live game, the joints must have sufficient hold versus cost of furnishing the game. this is unrelated to the nature of the ownership, corporate, whatever.

for those of you familiar with the retail grocery biz, you are aware of the extreme competition for shelf space. so it is on the casino floor. the slot department has most of the numbers on their side. machine cost is in the 10k each range for most slots, otherwise the numbers are all for slots. a "bank" of 6 slots takes up little more than a 21 table/chairs. slot returns coupled with the reduced supervision and dealer costs, are attractive to the bean counters.

even the dealer tokes are an issue since they significantly outweigh the infrequent tokes paid to the now rarer slot change/hand pay staff. those long into this 21 thing will recall the "dummy up and deal" policy of yore. that, since the joint assumed that *all* the players' money was theirs. how/why would you toke a virtual 21 device ? thus the joint will hold what would have been the dealer tokes.

with the introduction of virtual games...roulette, 21, and others, we may see only a few, token, live games per joint within a decade or two. perhaps the modern casino might have live games as a big 6 wheel, a roulette table, a couple of dice tables, a small pit of 21 tables, a back room poker area, for nostalgia, but mostly electronic devices. hey, it's gotta at least *look* like a casino.

thus to maintain the number of tables, those "advantage" players must rally all wannabes. i for one, always encourage other punters at a table, regardless of their skill. these are the beasts which carry the $/sq. foot burden for these live games. that concept extends to the often zealous attitude of certain 21 "luminaries" who curse the proponents of flawed systems. instead, these "authorities" should congratulate these fellow purveyors as providing the foundation of poorly armed players to carry the load.

and it don't hurt the act none by being a "reglar" player.

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Very good post, Gehrig.
Posted by Syph on 04-Oct-2004 19:50:09 (#10369)

And I must respectfully bow out at this point.

Save to say one thing to Tom ...

You`d be surprised.

;)

Best,
Syph

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I'd be surprised!?
Posted by Tom on 08-Oct-2004 00:20:13 (#10414)

You're extremly PARANOID of the so called hole-card.

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Dreaming of hole cards.
Posted by Tom on 04-Oct-2004 13:44:08 (#10364)

In reality finding a dealer who flashes every hole card is a very,very rare occurence whether it be at this game or that. Anybody with REAL experience knows this. I'd say on average I may get a peek one out of 10,000 hands and still dont have to like it. To assume dealers are going to somehow forget how to deal because the game is 6/5 is a fantasy. What about other circus games that are pitched? Now you say the next best thing to 6/5 blackjack that can happen in Vegas is train dealers to not expose hole cards...a true riddling puzzle!!? Duh,they already know this. Card counting is the bread and butter of blackjack,getting a flash now and then is just a little benefit and no sure way to riches.

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True, I'd rather holecard 3:2
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 03-Oct-2004 21:36:52 (#10354)

... but if that's not an option, holecarding 6:5 is still more profitable than any straight count. Now I count 224 6:5 tables in Las Vegas, mostly on the Strip, and in most of those casinos there are few or no other low stakes pitch games. So if you find an inexperienced, flashing dealer chances are it's going to be at one of those 6:5 tables. Add to this the smaller crowds and lower heat for AP's at those tables and the 6:5 pits are the logical first places to look for flashers.

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6:5 IS better for the typical ploppy...
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 01-Oct-2004 20:39:22 (#10341)

because it gives them a faster brutal azz-whippin'! It also helps to teach them to:

1) never return again & that gambling $ is stupid

AND/OR

2) learn the things they need to know so as to actually beat a 3:2 game

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and, like hitting oneself on the head with a hammer..
Posted by gehrig on 01-Oct-2004 21:29:39 (#10342)

it feels good when you stop. that's gotta be a benefit.

another plus could be that the punter cranks up more $5 barfets or footlong hot dogs on his player's card. just like 3 reel slots relative to "full pay" video poker, the joints oughta comp more on the carnival games.

and like you stated, if the punter taps out quickly, it could result in more food on the table for the wife and bambinos, in the long run.

then, those employed by the gambling addiction apparat might get some overtime. overtime is good.

let's not overlook the bk lawyers. the yellow pages are rife with those who for a fee off the top, can file on behalf of the tapped out gambler. and if the punter lost enough, mebbe a law suit could stick against the gaming establishment. who could argue that the 6:5 21 player is a "victim" ?

the repo man and process servers can score as well.

the list of those beneficiaries downstream from the 6:5 player may be endless.

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6:5
Posted by oldnewbie on 02-Oct-2004 17:59:25 (#10350)

All major casinos are now owned by corporations. That means they are administered by corporate bean counters. This means they will do ANYTHING to increase their profits, short of making the customers happy.

I first noticed 6:5 on my last trip to Vegas in July of '03 at the Paris and NYNY. I read that it has since spread like a virus. The reason is simple: It increases the house advantage. That is all the CPC's (corporate bean counters) care about. It is not better for the "ploppies", of which I consider myself one, nor is it better for anyone else.

Corporate entities DON'T CARE ABOUT THEIR CUSTOMERS. All they care about is the bottom line. That is what they learned when they were studying for their MBA's, and that is what they believe.

Please don't be misled into believing that anything the casinos do is out of respect for their customers.

Corporations are evil.

oldnewbie

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Question for the Mayor
Posted by MJ on 02-Oct-2004 12:51:18 (#10348)

Mayor,

I am a relative newbie to advantage play techniques so I was wondering if you could give me(and perhaps other viewers of this board) some insight into the following question:

Which advantage play technique is more profitable in the long run, card counting with a 1% advantage or Ace Sequencing(player can track 4 Aces/shoe)?

I realize that you endorsed the book Blackjack Ace Prediction so I figured you might have some insight into this topic.

Thanks for any help you can provide Mayor!

-MJ

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My thoughts...
Posted by The Mayor on 04-Oct-2004 10:21:19 (#10359)

You asked some tough questions...

>Which advantage play technique is more profitable in the long run, card counting with a 1% advantage or Ace Sequencing(player can track 4 Aces/shoe)?

Tracking an ace is not the same as getting the ace. Things can go wrong -- the cards can be cut between the key card and the ace during the shuffle, the key card comes out in the same round as the ace, etc. But if you can perfectly track and steer 4 aces, then that is far superior to counting. By the way, it is more common to get a next-card flasher and spot an ace than it is to be able to steer an ace.

The main difficulty, however, is finding