At one time, the website CardCounter.com held an active message forum with many contributors. When the previous site owner planned to shut down the site, he allowed us to archive the messages here at BlackjackInfo. They are formatted as they originally appeared, but no further comments on threads are permitted. If you want to discuss any of these topics, please do so at the BlackjackInfo Forums.
Best count to result in a dealer bust?
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 30-Nov-2003 22:27:22 (#5587)
What does the T C have to be resulting in a D bust most often?
I know it is on the + side but maybe not too far. ???
Stealth
Two perspectives from Griffin
Posted by Sonny on 30-Nov-2003 23:34:16 (#5592)
Ah, the card counter's paradox! Here's what Grifin has to say about card counters:
"they want all fives to be out of the deck before they raise their bets and then they want the dealer to show one as up card! There is an apparent paradox in that the cards whos removal most favors the player before the deal are also the cards whose appearance as dealer's up card most favors the player."
On page 147 (elephant edition) he concludes that "The dealer's probability of busting, as a function of ten density, appears to maximize (.295) with about 41% tens in the deck."
Depending on what count system you use and what values it assigns to cards (and which cards it does not assign values to) you will end up will various TCs for this density. Also, such a density of tens could describe many different deck compositions. From a strictly Thorp-esque (or would it be Thorp-ian? Maybe that's another post altogether!) tens/nontens standpoint, 41% is the number you are looking for.
However, if you are looking for the count with the highest player advantage the number is different:
"The player's advantage, as a function of increasing ten density, behaves in a similar fashion... It reaches it's zenith (almost 13%) when 73% of the cards are tens."
As the density grows higher, the player's advantage begins to return to zero since a deck composed of only tens would result in successive pushes.
-Sonny-
Re: Two perspectives from Griffin
Posted by The Mayor on 01-Dec-2003 08:52:13 (#5594)
"The dealer's probability of busting, as a function of ten density, appears to maximize (.295) with about 41% tens in the deck."
To begin with there are 16 tens out of 52 cards for 30.76% tens.
Now, if we just remove non T's, then the 41% threshold is reached when 13 non-T's have been removed (16/39 = 41.03%).
If you wanted to develop a perfect count just for this facet alone it would be:
Non-T = +1
Ten = -2.44
and on single deck ... you would take the wager when the RC >= +13 (as above).
--Mayor
Re: Two perspectives from Griffin
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 01-Dec-2003 12:18:58 (#5596)
If this bet exists, what is the pay off structure? Is it +EV?
Blackjack in The Bahamas
Posted by Dschddny on 01-Dec-2003 09:55:08 (#5595)
How does blackjack in The Bahamas compare to bj in Atlantic City? What are the most common conditions in The Bahamas?
Thanks.
Re: Blackjack in The Bahamas
Posted by Dschddny on 18-Dec-2003 13:54:28 (#5844)
Does anyone know about blackjack in the Bahamas? I'm going in February and I want to know what to expect.
Thanks in advance, for any info at all.
Mayor's Podium
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 01-Dec-2003 12:36:54 (#5598)
Looks like our errected officals are sleeping again! Someone get the shariff to blast his shot gun off in the Mayor's office and wake his gal-darned....wha? He ain't in the office? Don't tell me he took up golf! I know he isn't in school like he said he was going to be. Where in the blue blazes is he? OH! Out posting at BJ21 again? Goodness gracious, great balls of fire! Get yur self back her Mayor! Yur public awaits thee!! Have them thar November and December per diums on the managers desk ASAP or someone will vote you down to washing chips at the El Cortez. ;>
Here is a link
Posted by The Mayor on 01-Dec-2003 15:08:51 (#5605)
This will be up in a few days:
http://www.cardcounter.com/podiums/podium_12_2003.htm
Re: Here is a link
Posted by SammyBoy on 01-Dec-2003 16:28:10 (#5606)
Mayor, you may have done for the Big 6 Wheel what Thorp's book did for BJ. ;-)
Banned!!
Posted by Victoria on 01-Dec-2003 17:52:00 (#5607)
I want to be the first. Banned by a casino for counting revolutions on the big wheel. Can see it now, random rotation generators added to every wheel.
Re: Banned!!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 01-Dec-2003 21:23:30 (#5612)
You will not be the first. I've read a similar story elseware about three years ago. The trick is to not play it too hard, and not tell anyone about it. ;> I wonder what the Las Vegas Big 6 Wheel Mafia has to say about this. The shot Kennedy for much less!
Coutermeasure noticed on the strip
Posted by Victoria on 02-Dec-2003 11:29:39 (#5617)
Rob
You got me thinking. At one of the places in Vegas, I noticed that when you walk in the main entrance you see two big wheels with tall show girls working them. Since these ladies are tall and strong enough to give the wheel random spins, this casino may have taken measures already against teams of revolution counters.
Re: Coutermeasure noticed on the strip
Posted by The Mayor on 02-Dec-2003 13:14:25 (#5619)
What I noticed in looking at a lot of these wheels is that the rubber stoppers are very "loose" so that the wheel easily spins 10 times before stopping, and the stopping seems to take forever as it barely makes it in to about 20 more spaces. It's almost as if they don't exist.
The key is finding a weak spinner and a wheel that has firm stoppers. These are rare, but are the basic ingredients. Next, make sure the spinner looks bored, as if she is on automatic pilot. Finally, make sure the wheel has two 40-1 payoff spaces, or else you will be there a long time waiting for your one to line up.
--Mayor
Gets the mind working!
Posted by Sonny on 01-Dec-2003 18:08:02 (#5608)
Ah, another masterpiece! This is even better than the Wiz's advantage play technique for "Flip-It!"
BTW, how long will it be before the "Big 6" teams swoop in and burn the game out?
-Sonny-
Re: Gets the mind working!
Posted by Big Cowboy on 02-Dec-2003 09:09:53 (#5615)
Mr. Mayor,
I love how this web site really does open up one's mind to possibilities. I'll never look at a wheel of fortune the same again.
Re: Gets the mind working!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 03-Dec-2003 13:56:27 (#5639)
I have heard they will not let Pat-Say-Jack play the big 6 in LV. And those tall show girls? hehehe Crossdressing Carney's! laugh
Hey Mayor!
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 02-Dec-2003 16:06:23 (#5621)
Don't you want to credit the source of the 'seed' that helped with your wheel discovery?
You did have a 105% advantage on the bet, but you didn't have 105% overall. I assume you made some $1 and $2 bets on the 1:1 shot (the lowest house edge bet), so the wheel would keep spinning while you waited for the 40:1 shot to 'line up'.
It would look strange to only play occasionally, plunking down max 40:1 bets, and then not betting. Your cover bets, in between your "I FEEL LUCKY" max bets, have to be considered when calculating your EV.
If you can find a wheel that is being played with 1 or 2 others (where do all the suckers come from?) that could be good too. That way you can 'wong out' for a few spins while waiting for the jackpot to line up, and not be as noticeable.
Another Minor Point:
Beware of the wheel spinners who decide to give you an extra hard spin "for luck" when they see you bet the 40:1 shot. Some might do it on purpose, sort of like a dealer giving you the premature shuffle up when you bet big in BlackJack. You have to keep the dealer in his natural rhythm, so he keeps spinning the wheel consistently.
Scenario of a future TV show:
Since most of the big wheels are placed in front of the casinos near the entrance, can you imagine someone sitting outside (high power binoculars, super zoom lens) monitoring the wheel. Or perhaps from way across the casino floor with a tiny hidden micro camera feeding the van outside. Then the secret radio transmission to the hidden ear piece of the "drunk" at the bar. BET ON THE JOKER NOW!!! Drunk staggers over to the wheel, throws a chunk of money on the spot after missing the entire table a couple of times, and ... ...
Abraham?
Posted by Victoria on 02-Dec-2003 17:34:46 (#5623)
Abraham
I think you have been watching too much of that new comedy on NBC called Vegas, but when they run the big wheel episode make sure you get paid.
Re: Hey Mayor!
Posted by The Mayor on 02-Dec-2003 20:07:04 (#5625)
>Don't you want to credit the source of the 'seed' that helped with your wheel discovery?
You are right -- thanks to Grosjean for his insights in "Beyond Countin". Also there is a story about it in the Green Chip archives at bj21.com. Both of these prove that for a long time the game has been known to be beatable in the right circumstances.
>You did have a 105% advantage on the bet, but you didn't have 105% overall. I assume you made some $1 and $2 bets on the 1:1 shot (the lowest house edge bet), so the wheel would keep spinning while you waited for the 40:1 shot to 'line up'.
You are right again, but usually because she was so accurate, I would bet on the 20-1 that was in her range while waiting for the 40-1's.
>It would look strange to only play occasionally, plunking down max 40:1 bets, and then not betting. Your cover bets, in between your "I FEEL LUCKY" max bets, have to be considered when calculating your EV.
Yes, I considered writing all that, but didn't think it need be said. You are right though. I lost a lot of bets waiting.
>If you can find a wheel that is being played with 1 or 2 others (where do all the suckers come from?) that could be good too. That way you can 'wong out' for a few spins while waiting for the jackpot to line up, and not be as noticeable.
Or else, get a team all betting house max on the 40-1 then house-min on the 1-1 8-)
>Another Minor Point:
Beware of the wheel spinners who decide to give you an extra hard spin "for luck" when they see you bet the 40:1 shot. Some might do it on purpose, sort of like a dealer giving you the premature shuffle up when you bet big in BlackJack.
At some points her spin suddenly became chaotic and unpredictible, but that didn't last long (a couple of spins) then it would settle in again. The point is that everyone at the table had to look and act bored, and no new people could come to the table -- then she would get this blank stare and just spin it the way she always did.
>You have to keep the dealer in his natural rhythm, so he keeps spinning the wheel consistently.
Yes. Boredom is the key to beating the wheel. If you get excited when you win, it is all over for a few spins. I think getting a spinner on Thorazine would be optimal.
Take care,
--Mayor
Re: Hey Mayor!
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 03-Dec-2003 09:46:31 (#5630)
You Da Man, Mayor!
Thanks for your insights.
I think the secretly slipping the spinner some Thorazine will be a part of next week's TV script.
Re: Hey Mayor!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 03-Dec-2003 14:00:23 (#5640)
I'll send them your URL if you like??? laugh
Just One of Those Days!
Posted by SammyBoy on 01-Dec-2003 13:26:27 (#5599)
I took a severe beating the other day, I lost 28 max bets over a couple of sessions. This will really make you start thinking about life. I climbed back into the saddle a few days later and got 60 units back, but not enough to get the bankroll back to where it should be. I did have something interesting happen to me while playing. The count skyrocketed, +22 TC (AOII) and I pushed out 2 max bets. The dealer has a 10 showing and I hold my breath as he checks for BJ. Whew! No blackjack, now I confidently check my first hand, expecting a 20, possibly even a BJ. DAMN! I draw a 10 and a 5 for 15, knowing I can't possibly take a hit, I tuck my cards. Now, surely my second hand will be a BJ or at least a 20. I couldn't believe my eyes, 10 and 6 for a 16. I was the last player so I tucked it as well. I'm sitting there just knowing all is lost, not believing I could possibly get 2 stiffs with such a monster count. The dealer flips over his hole card, before I can see it I'm practically pushing my chips into his tray. I look up and could not believe my eyes! He had a 6 in the hole for 16, then draws a face card and busts!!! What an awesome feeling! Just when you think all is lost the improbable happens. What a rollercoaster ride this game is.
Re: Just One of Those Days!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 01-Dec-2003 13:53:07 (#5600)
You just gotta love those play indices. Yeah baby YEAH!
Re: Just One of Those Days!
Posted by The Mayor on 01-Dec-2003 14:11:52 (#5602)
The ones I recall are -- details same as yours execpt -- dealer turns over a 6 and then, just as you guessed -- an ace.
It goes both ways.
I don't recall the good ones like I recall the bad ones -- selective memory is a bitch.
--Mayor
A Poem, by Henry Gibson
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 01-Dec-2003 14:29:07 (#5604)
Yee shall draw near
What you do fear
While blessings race some down
And overtake them
Hey SammyBoy
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 01-Dec-2003 22:06:16 (#5613)
Makes it all just that much more fun when you win 2 chunky hands when your otherwise up zhit creek with D showin' 10. LOL :-))))))))))
Also amazing how sometimes we're sitting there basking in the glory of the moment with 2 chunky hands, D's showin' 8, we have a pair of faces on each and then D somehow makes a 5 card 21 out of a +20 TC. Go figure. Happened to me a couple of weeks ago. Oh what a bellyache. whine whine
Stealth
Re: Just One of Those Days!
Posted by BradRod on 04-Dec-2003 21:57:22 (#5658)
I have been having one of those days for about 5 sleeples days over the past week and a half in 4 different casinos in 3 different cities, 3states and 2 countries. Fortunately I am still positive for the year but I have been taking a real pounding. I am still giving the game the opportunity to kiss and make it up to me.
This morning I was playing one hand in a very high count shoe game - UBZII and got a series of about 6 hands of T-6 or 5 (the dealer consistently showing a T up through the whole shoe - and actually shoe after shoe. He was also making hands of 19-21 almost routinely. either in the first two cards or drew as many as three or four cards to make the totals. This went on hand after regardless of how the count fluctuated -2 to +5 TC) I waived the hand off each time and the dealer either had the pat card underneath or drew to make his hand again regardless of the hole card. If the hole card was an 8 he drew a 2 or 3, hole card a 5 he drew a 5 or 6. Nearly with out fail and not once busting. The only consolation to me was that my waiving off 15 and 15 drove the ploppies away from the table.
Recent Vegas Trip
Posted by Big Cowboy on 02-Dec-2003 10:52:11 (#5616)
I don't go to Vegas too often but usually look forward to playing BJ since I don't get too many opportunities to do that at home also. Too busy usually is the excuse. But when the opportunity presents itself, I don't say to to Vegas. Whenever I go, it is always a jolt to breathe the air there. The cigarette and cigar smoke just hits you so hard, it usually almost knocks me down. Keep in mind though that when I'm winning, I'll inhale people's BO, flatulence, cigarette smoking, and ploppy play. But when I lose, anything and everything annoys me. So let's just say, a lot of things annoyed me on my trip. Also, I use the Hi-OptI and play shoes. I know. I know. I've heard the comments from the good people on this board, but that is what I'm comfortable using for now and have done well in the past.
There weren't as many Asians around when I played which is usually a good thing. No offense, but the Asians, especially from Hong Kong, with too much money and no smarts really do astonish me with their play. Saw a guy from HK bet $5000 on a single hand, lost it, and acted nonchalantly when his money was gone. He was most definitely not an advantage player. Also loved the Vietnamese woman who told me how to play my hands, especially loudly when I had an A5 to a dealer 4 and told me not to double down but to stand. This from a woman who stayed on 12 when the dealer had a ten. I won my A5 double down, and she lost on her stay 12. She still never shut up.
Three other areas of note. I have no idea why people play at tables with CSMs. I just consider any casino that offers those games as gutless and playing dirty pool. It doesn't say a lot for those ploppies who mistakenly play them thinking that they are playing blackjack. That also goes for 6:5 blackjack. Why in God's name do people play games where the casino is essentially loading the dice? It's just dumb, stupid, ignorant. Remember the immortal words of Dean Wormer (which fit well with the people who play by the above rules): Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life son. Finally, players all the time mention that they play by the book. I think they mean basic strategy. The trouble is the basic strategy they're trying to play is usually undecipherable to me. I don't know what book they're reading, but it must have been written by the same guy who wrote "How to Lose Money and Still Enjoy Yourselves."
Pounded the pavement like Mr. Mayor, except I do it to look for good BJ rules. Please correct any wrong information that I am about to provide. Played a little at the Frontir even with the litigation story on this web site about that casino. Lost a couple of units. Played more just to get warmed up more than anything. (6D, H17, LS, 67% penetration) The penetration was a red flag. Also, I kinda wish some of these casinos would get a clue and actually do some cleaning at their place. Is that too much to ask for?
Did not play at the Stadust. Many $5 tables available. (6D, H17, do not recall penetration or surrender status)
Played a little at the Rivera. The rules there have not changed in many years for 6 decks. Not too many people there. A lot of tables open. (70%-75% penetration, 6 decks, DAS, split aces, S17, no LS) Won five units. Not a bad place to play, but I thought I could find better.
Did not play at the Venetia. (8D, H17) I hate playing eight decks.
The Flaming is a good place to play. I never make any money there, but the rules are not too bad. (80% penetration, 6 decks, H17, DAS, LS, dealer burns a card with each change in dealer) The penetration kept me there but still lost 35 units. A lot of tables open for use. Could not win my double downs and splits regularly. The TC would be nicely positive, but I never got the double down cards which made me feel somewhat comfortable. Frustrating to keep losing like that, especially when the other players who were not even playing basic strategy appearred to be winning.
Ball's. Did not play there. (8D, H17, LS) I thought the rules were inferior.
This place used to be a favorite of mine. Now I just avoid it.
The Lion used to be my favorite place to play, but they keep making it harder to play there. It's big and open. However, they used to have a lot more tables with good rules, but I noticed that a lot more of their tables were H17. It is still 6D, DAS, LS, 75% penetration. They only had a small number of S17 tables available. Definitely read the table rules before sitting down. I noticed this trend at Cheezers also. On a previous trip I remember losing a hand when the dealer surprised me when she improved her hand on a soft 17. I thought I had won the hand, until more cards were pulled out. Again, had trouble winning my double downs. It was almost like a cooler sat down next to me, except I was never winning much in the first place.
Aladsin. Didn't play there. (8D, S17) It's hard enough to get good counts with 6 decks. I just don't like playing eight.
The Volcano. Did not play there. You had to play $25 minimum hands in order to get a six deck game. It was either that or play the CSMs. No thank you. The $25 minimum is too rich for my bankroll. But this place was still crowded even with the predominance of the CSMs. Go figure.
At the Volcano's next door neighbor is now the siren singing, freaky casino. Still bad rules there as usual. Did not play. There was one $5 2-deck game, owtherwise, there were a ton of CSMs. Gag.
The Circus. Did not play there. (6D, S17, no LS; or 2D, H17, BJ pays 6:5) I used to like playing there. The fun has gone away for me there.
Harry's. Did not play there. (8D, H17) It sure does not look like a fun mardi gras in there.
Did not play in France. They still had 8D with H17. The French seem to be trying to get the better of the American tourist.
At the Japanese Palace, played a little. Still as dirty and smelly as ever. (6D, 67% pen, H17, no LS). Bad shoe rules. Great looking cocktail waitresses. I tried playing 2 decks for the first time, but figured out the rules aren't very good. (No LS, H17, 50% pen) Lost one unit. Only played face down because I was the only one playing. Still could not get a good run. Left when the dealer suggested I look for another table. I guess I whined too much.
The Bellagio still has too many CSMs. It really caters to the crowd which supposedly has a larger bankroll, but those CSMs just keep me away. No good reason to play there.
So I ended up mostly at Cheezers. It is a comfortable place to play. They've split their casino into two areas. A richer, high-roller area and a not as rich area. Lowest minimum was $10. A lot of tables to choose from, but again read the table rules for hit and stand 17. Otherwise, it was 6D, LS, DAS, split aces. Maybe I am just mistaken, but I thought the penetration for the H17 tables was consistently 80% and for the S17 around 75%. The other thing of note is that at 4:00 AM, those $10 minimum tables close down for awhile, and the table minimums offered are $25 and up. Annoying since the rules and the ambience in my opinion make the casino a good place to play. It's large and open, and the smoky air was bearable, but the cocktail waitresses need more help. They don't seem to hire enough of them, and with the ones that they have in their skimpy outfits, really need a lot more makeup or a lot more alcohol for me. Of course, my luck with double downs and splits followed me there also.
It was not the best of trips. I ended up being down about 100 units overall. Disappointing, but understandable. I kept my mistakes to a minimum by wonging out when the TC was unbearably negative or if I had any inkling that I had lost the actual count. Used the betting scheme suggested by the Mayor based on the TC. Unfortunately sometimes bad cards happen to good people. Wait until next time. Those double down and split hands really made the difference. I hope my descriptions are helpful. I wanted to provide the table rules to help those who may not know even though I understand that the more veteran crowd here probably deems that to be redundant info for them. No grand excitement or arrests (me). I usually go for clean winning and fun. Did not touch a thing that the hispanic guys were handing out. All I can say, wait until the next time. Good luck to you all, and take as much as you can.
Thanks for the report
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 02-Dec-2003 16:09:18 (#5622)
A very good post. Continue to hit them where it hurts.
You bring up a very interesting question:
6D, DOA, DAS, LS, split aces.
H17 - 80% Pen.
S17 - 75% Pen.
Which is the better game? S17 has lower BS house edge, but at what kind of large spread does the H17 80% Pen become the game to play? LS really helps when it comes to comparing pen type questions like this also, since it is going to help cut down the variance of a monster spread.
What about Wong possibilities? Wouldn't it be better to Wong the inferior rule (but better Pen game) with large bets? Won't the advantage situations present themselves slightly more frequently leading to better per hour return?
With a normal 1:10 spread, how much more pen do you need over a 75% S17 to make the H17 game better?
Great report
Posted by The Mayor on 02-Dec-2003 19:59:10 (#5624)
You really covered the shoe action on the strip. Hopefully next trip you will not be as "annoyed".
The H17/S17 thing is not big at all -- especially compared to decent penetration and getting LSR.
Thanks again for taking the time to share with us,
--Mayor
Re: S17 vs H17
Posted by V-man on 03-Dec-2003 13:44:16 (#5636)
Calculator on Casino Verite web site has the following results in SCORE:
- 6D, S17, DAS, LS, fair pen (78 cards). Spread 12, play Hi-lo I18 & F4 SCORE=30.67 and N0=32656
- 6D, H17, DAS, LS, good pen (52 cards). Spread 12, play Hi-lo I18 & F4 SCORE=36.25 and N0=27531
Of course, the difference between 78 & 52 is huge. I don't have the software to run the pen in between, my guess is the S17 slightly edges H17 with 75% & 80%.
3 to 1 suited bj
Posted by pat on 03-Dec-2003 08:00:55 (#5626)
what is the player edge on 3 to 1 SUITED bj?
Re: 3 to 1 suited bj
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 03-Dec-2003 10:33:57 (#5631)
It all depends on what you are giving up to get this feature.
Re: 3 to 1 suited bj
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 03-Dec-2003 13:51:28 (#5638)
They still giving away free weekends in January at Circus Circus for a suited BJ's?
Re: 3 to 1 suited bj
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 03-Dec-2003 10:57:37 (#5632)
That would add approximately 1.5% to the player.
They must have some other rules to offset this advantage, right?
Re: 3 to 1 suited bj
Posted by The Mayor on 03-Dec-2003 15:18:38 (#5644)
First card is an Ace -- 4/52.
Second card is a Ten of the same suit -- 4/51.
Probability of suited blackjack: 2*(4/52)*(4/51) = .012066
We are gaining an extra 1.5 units with probability .012066, so this rule would add 1.5*(.012066) = .018099 = 1.81% to our expectation.
This is for single deck.
Casino Royale has this rule when you get a new card -- it used to pay off on a $100 max bet, now it only pays this on a $25 max bet.
--Mayor
3-1 party time!
Posted by Sonny on 08-Dec-2003 10:43:50 (#5703)
Sounds like Pat was gearing up for Terrible's big anniversary bonus last Saturday! Suited BJs paid 3-1 from 6pm-Midnight. The top bet for the bonus was $50 per hand, but you could get away with up to two spots at once. Although, around 8:00 they were telling people to only play one hand becuase they were so busy. It was a hell of a party!
-Sonny-
16 vs Dealer 10
Posted by Dschddny on 03-Dec-2003 08:28:45 (#5627)
I read that when you have a 16 vs a dealer 10, you should stand if the TC is 0 or more. This doesn't make sense to me, specifically when the TC equals exactly 0. Isn't the basic strategy play to hit? If the TC is 0, shouldn't that equate to the basic strategy play?
Thanks!
Re: 16 vs Dealer 10
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 03-Dec-2003 13:48:24 (#5637)
it is actually >0, so even an RC of +1 makes this the right call. Now someone will say it is actually an RC of 2.43 or something to prove me wrong...smile
This is one of those plays that counting will help you with in a one deck game online. 4,4,6,2 vs 10 STAND
Re: 16 vs Dealer 10
Posted by Dschddny on 04-Dec-2003 09:59:13 (#5648)
Could you (or someone else) please post the correct Ill 18 table?
Thank you very much!
Re: 16 vs Dealer 10 *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 04-Dec-2003 15:00:25 (#5652)
Sure:
http://webhome.idirect.com/~blakjack/flashadv.htm
Re: 16 vs Dealer 10
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 04-Dec-2003 16:34:13 (#5653)
I use a different index number for a few of these plays:
9 vs 7 +3
12 vs 6 -2
13 vs 2 -1
12 vs 2 +3
And you might make note that being off by +1/-1 on any one particular play, really doesn't matter!
So I don't know why I even brought it up.
Some you might want to add:
s19 vs 6 +1
s19 vs 5 +2
8 vs 6 +2
8 vs 5 +3
s18 vs 2 +1
s17 vs 2 >0 (otherwise hit.)
A,2 vs 5 never double, just hit.
8 VS 5,6
Posted by BradRod on 04-Dec-2003 21:21:51 (#5657)
>>>>Some you might want to add:
..........................
.........
8 vs 6 +2
8 vs 5 +3
........................
......................<<<<<<<<<<<
ABRAHAM,
ARE YOU SAYING THAT ABOVE THESE COUNTS IT IS BETTER TO DOBLE ON A PAIR OF 4'S RATHER THAN SPLIT IN A SHOE GAME ? OR ARE THESE BASIC STARTEGY VARIATION FOR SINGLE DECK ?
BR
Re: 8 VS 5,6
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 05-Dec-2003 08:41:22 (#5660)
Where did I say that?
When some one says stand on 16 vs 10 when the count is > 0, does that mean don't split 8s?
You still split the 4,4 vs 5 or 6 in a DAS game. If the count is +2 or more then you would double down on 6,2 or 5,3.
Double Down on 8 vs 5 or 6 is basic strategy for single deck, and in a multiple deck game with a high enough positive count it is the move to make there.
thanks for clarification *NM*
Posted by BradRod on 05-Dec-2003 09:39:29 (#5661)
Internet Blackjack
Posted by Dschddny on 03-Dec-2003 08:30:06 (#5628)
This may be a dumb question, but is card counting at all useful when playing internet blackjack?
Thanks.
Re: Internet Blackjack
Posted by Sonny on 03-Dec-2003 11:44:11 (#5634)
> This may be a dumb question, but is card counting at all useful
> when playing internet blackjack?
>
> Thanks.
Since they shuffle the decks after every hand, card counting will not create any sort of advantage in playing online. It may help you on certain "close call" playing hands, but you will not have any long-term advantage over the house.
The ONLY advantage in online blackjack comes from the bonuses they give you. If they give you more money than you expect to lose by playing, you will be playing a winning game.
-Sonny-
Re: Internet Blackjack *LINK*
Posted by Barry Meadow on 12-Dec-2003 12:28:11 (#5780)
Occasionally you will run into a one-deck game and get a 16 vs. a 10 with three or four small cards; counting, you'd stand rather than hit.
With most software, all decks are reshuffled after every hand. As Sonny says, your edge is with the bonuses, not from counting.
Barry Meadow
author, Crushing The Internet Casinos
New guy
Posted by Ace High on 03-Dec-2003 08:42:15 (#5629)
Hi, I'm new to Nevada, And the casino Scene. I have read a book lent to me by a friend, But am curious as to what peoples thoughts are on a simple effective count system?
Thanks Ya'll
Ace High
Re: New guy
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 03-Dec-2003 11:02:59 (#5633)
I think an effective count system would be a good thing.
If it is simple than it would be even better.
No complaints from me about simple and effective, seems to be a good combination.
Unbalanced, single-level no side-count KO is about as simple, yet effective, as you can get. HiLo would probably be next, then HI-OPT I if you want to go the side-count route, else RPC if you want to go multi-level.
Simple Count *LINK*
Posted by Mr Pill on 03-Dec-2003 11:47:33 (#5635)
Ace,
If you can get a hold of a copy of Blackbelt in Blackjack (out of print) by Arnold Snyder, this has the unbalanced Red 7 count. It is a very easy count to learn and utilize and has done well for me and my casual play over the last 4 or 5 years (always positive at years end).
I guess it will depend on what your goals are. For me currently, it is just a hobby that pays for itself. I enjoy getting out and playing at the tables and seeing all the different types of people. My wife enjoys playing and is very proficient at basic strategy and will sometimes follow my betting, but not too close.
As my kids get older and I can devote more time to playing, I might expand my play and start doing a true count for a true bet estimation with the Red 7, which is also covered in this book. Or I might change counts all together.
I have about six more years and I can then retire at 80% salary (I will then only be 51). At that time I might play more hours per year, persue tournament play or ??.
If you can't find the book visit the link below. The link contains alot of the text of the book and will give you a feel for the Red 7 count.
Good Luck,
Pill
P.S. Anyone know if Arnold has a new edition planned?
Re: Simple Count *LINK*
Posted by Mr Pill on 03-Dec-2003 14:53:56 (#5641)
Another good post I had bookmarked from the Card Counter Cafe is below.
It talks about comparing the Balanced versus Unbalanced counts including the Red 7.
I play mostly 6 deck in Michigan and as the link points out its downfall is playing it against single deck. Due to the fact that it "estimates" TC due to it's unbalanced design, the fewer decks in play the bigger this factor is. But even with this in mind, the unbalanced count is still something to consider for your first count.
Pill
Re: Simple Count
Posted by Ace High on 03-Dec-2003 15:17:47 (#5643)
Thanks for the link Phil, Looks like I have more home work.
I enjoy playing BJ, I would like to last a little longer with my money though. The guy that leant me the book wasn't up on it at all, so I need to learn a lot of things.
I am and have been reading the past post, in hopes to bring me somewhat up to date. And I see I need to overcome detractions, Such as Cocktail girls at the table, and the noisy players that want to talk. I need full focus at this time, Someday, I'm sure it will become second nature.
The HI-LO is what I have been working on.
Thanks, Again
Ace High
Re: New guy
Posted by Alex on 03-Dec-2003 15:04:03 (#5642)
I would advise you to learn the Hi-Lo system with I18 indexes. That's all you ever need to play the game.
Now, if you are interested to make money from this game then as Don was saying in his book: "Technical ability comes through dedication and practice. But most of all, this game takes an incredible amount of heart. It takes an iron will and a fierce determination to succeed. It takes physical stamina, nerves of steel, and an inordinate amount of discipline and self-control. Without all of the latter, the former (technical skills) are meaningless."
Alex
Re: New guy
Posted by Lars on 24-Jan-2004 15:22:18 (#6361)
If i were you i would give the K-O system a try and compare it to the Hi-Lo and use the one that seems easier or better for you...
The Hot Shoe documentary *LINK*
Posted by David Layton on 03-Dec-2003 19:13:20 (#5645)
I want to let everyone know about my card counting documentary that is finally finished and available to the public. I recognize some posters' handles from other sites, so many of you might know about it already, but I'm trying to get the word out everywhere.
It's a 95-minute movie about the history, mathematics, politics and culture of card counting. We tell the story through interviews with Ed Thorp, Stanford Wong, Peter Griffin, Ian Andersen, Arnold Snyder, Anthony Curtis, Tommy Hyland, Olaf Vancura, members of the MIT team and many other blackjack experts. We talk to people who try to identify and stop counters as well as professional players and authors. I think it's the most complete and accurate treatment of the subject ever made.
I'll be showing the movie at film festivals and some special screenings over the next year, but it's also available for sale right now on our website: www.thehotshoemovie.com and at the Gamblers Book Shop and some other places. Check the website for screening info over the next months.
Thanks, David Layton
Re: The Hot Shoe documentary *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 04-Dec-2003 10:08:54 (#5649)
Find my review here:
http://webhome.idirect.com/~blakjack/hotshoe.htm
EXCELLENT REVIEW
Posted by Learning to count on 04-Dec-2003 13:49:43 (#5650)
I SENT FOR MY COPY! THANKS ROB YOU SOLD ME!
Re: EXCELLENT REVIEW
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 04-Dec-2003 14:40:59 (#5651)
You'll just love it. You'll be checking the mail box like a kid waiting for a reply from Santa, trust me. Just like I keep checking for my review copy of Barry Meadow's Crushing the Internet Casinos......boohoohoo! BJF only took three days. Must be all the Christmas cards or something.
LTC, Money Well Spent *NM*
Posted by SammyBoy on 04-Dec-2003 16:35:37 (#5654)
Vegas Results
Posted by CowboyKO on 03-Dec-2003 19:48:00 (#5646)
Well, my first Vegas trip ended in the black for me which was encouraging. Played downtown exclusively but was coming off the flu so I did not have the energy to hammer out that much playing time at the tables as I would have liked. I put in about six hours and came out 83 units ahead overall. Most of my time was spent at DD at the Fitz, 4 Queens, Fremont, and Lady Luck. Penetration at all these places seemed to be dealer dependent with the Fitz offering the best overall avg. pen at about 65-70%. Penetration at 4 Queens was consistently poor with around 50% or even less. Fremont was somewhat better with about 60% as was Lady Luck, although one dealer at the LL would shuffle up when my max bets came out. Result for each venue: Fitz +35 units, 4 Queens +11 units, Fremont +8 units, and LL -3 units. I only spent a short but profitable time playing SD at the Horseshoe where I ended up +32 units.
I have an upcoming trip to Reno and would like to know if you guys would recommend any nice places to stay. Unfortunately the saying "don't let the bed bugs bite" was all too true when I decided to stay at the cheapest hotel possible when I went to Vegas.
Good Luck to all.
CKO
Re: Vegas Results
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 03-Dec-2003 21:47:52 (#5647)
I stay at the Wells Ave. Motel 6 when I go to Reno, just out of cheapness and habit. I'll be playing enough to get comped a room when I go next time, but Reno is a scary place and I think I'd rather be sleeping someplace the casino doesn't know about if I get busted for counting. Remember they can chase you away from BJ only, throw you out of the casino, or throw you off the premises entirely which includes the hotel. Motel 6 is always clean and convenient, and they don't charge for local or 800 phone calls.
Places to stay in Reno
Posted by count running on 04-Dec-2003 20:18:09 (#5656)
In Reno I like the Sands. Cheap (and I mean CHEAP) room rates, and walkable to all of downtown. The rooms are truely nice, and the gym/spa is free to guests (and with a phenomenal view). Decent low-roller BJ.
Don't miss the $0.99 breakfast (served all day) at the Cal-Neva, and the free internet access and cup o' joe at the little cyber cafe on S. Victoria (the main drag) just across the river from the casinos. Man I love Reno!
Best places to play right now (IMHO) are S*enna, A*lantis, Circ-Circ. Doomtown has become unbearably sweaty, and dealers like to pref. shuffle on you. Also avoid H*rrah's, El Blurado, Sliver Legacy.
RC
Re: Places to stay in Reno
Posted by CowboyKO on 05-Dec-2003 19:54:41 (#5668)
How is the heat at the joints in Sparks? It appears that the condtions there are generally better with the exception of maybe the S*enna in Reno. Thanks for the responses.
CKO
Re: Places to stay in Reno
Posted by Running Count on 08-Dec-2003 12:48:06 (#5704)
The S*enna is not in Sparks -- it's in downtown Reno. The Sparks places are a mixed bag. Baldeenies and Rail Spity are dumps where even low red action is enough to bring down the house. They notice anyone under 50, not a trucker or local, betting more than $10 a hand. The Nugg has dropped its single-deck pit and now offers mostly 2D with decent pen. I hardly ever play there anymore.
If you don't have a car, stay in downtown and play in downtown (except maybe a trip down Virginia to Atlanpermill.
Have fun,
RC
p.s. Thanks, Admin, for hooking me back up.
Re: Places to stay in Reno
Posted by maple on 14-Jan-2004 00:13:02 (#6179)
Stay at Boomtown, very friendly, no heat 5-25, generous with comps,
have never paid for a meal there yet, just have to ask, they give you
a meal comp.
free room offers come in the mail
every 2 months, we've stayed there free about 4 times, getting 4 nights
free as we both get offers and book them back to back.
Stayed at Atlantis once and liked it then went out to this Boowtown and
signed up for a players card and the room offers started coming and we've never looked back and they have all only single-deck. Boomtown
is about 7 minutes west of Reno towards Sacramento.
The Mayors Podium for December
Posted by Learning to count on 04-Dec-2003 20:08:12 (#5655)
I dont know about clocking the big wheel Eliot but as usual you will have to show me how it works! I'm game! We will see! So far your guidance has been a positive EV ride for me!!!!!! Hey I just recieved Anthony Curtis' Las Vegas Advisor lite news letter. CC.Com was name pick of the week for Black Jack Players! Wow CC.Com is becoming a real pro type AP web site!!!!!!!
Very nice
Posted by The Mayor on 05-Dec-2003 12:39:58 (#5663)
It is an honor that Anthony Curtis mentioned this site in his newsletter, and it is a tribute to the excellence of the individuals who contribute their knowledge and experience here.
As for the big six wheel -- finding a playable one is rarer than finding a major league baseball player who doesn't use "supplements" -- but keep looking!
Just remember -- EVERY GAME can be beaten legally under the right circumstances.
--Mayor
Re: Very nice
Posted by BradRod on 05-Dec-2003 12:55:49 (#5664)
>>>>>Just remember -- EVERY GAME can be beaten legally under the right circumstances.
Thanks for showing us how we can find them.
KO count question
Posted by sprettster on 05-Dec-2003 00:36:40 (#5659)
Unbalanced counts have always been a mystery to me, so I'm learning the KO to see what it's all about. In "KO Blackjack" by Vancura and Fuchs, they say that for a 6D game you should start the running count at -20 off the top, and when the RC reaches -4 you should bet up. What I don't get is that since the imbalance per deck is +4, the RC will on average reach -4 after four decks have been dealt, which would be equivalent to a TC=0 situation. It seems to me that "bet up at -4" doesn't work here. Can someone tell me where I'm going wrong?
sprettster
Good Question
Posted by Titaniumman on 06-Dec-2003 14:51:26 (#5680)
You're not really missing anything.
I wrote this in a post on Greenchip in early September:
KO starts off indicating an exaggerated negative situation when too many cards remain undealt to gain much of an advantage anyway. KO then slowly climbs up as cards are dealt since every deck adds up to +4. If the remaining cards are rich in big cards, KO would have climbed faster than average. When and if the KO count goes sufficiently positive to indicate a desirable situation, penetration has also been achieved to fairly match the positive indication.
Of course, you demonstrate that you have a pretty good handle on this concept. The thing you must understand is that KO is an extremely simple counting system, and therefore trades off some of its effectivity for that simplicity.
Thankfully, the loss of effectivity is not enough to keep KO from being competitive with other counting systems.
The betting ramp that V&F recommend is calculated for through the entire shoe, and not for one particular point.
The Key Count is the Key
Posted by Ohio_Jones on 06-Dec-2003 18:10:23 (#5682)
V&F describe -4 as the key count in the 6D game. Uston SS, Red Sevens and UBZII keep the pivot point at 0 by taking the final running count x number of decks and then subtract that from 0 to create a negative IRC. V&F do the same thing except subtract from 4 and call it the key count whereby they still refer to the pivot point as 0. I would be curious to know why you would change from AOII after 10 years? If it is just the TC conversions I would suggest the UBZII. I don't use that particular system but it seems many people fair well with it in the shoe games.
Re: The Key Count is the Key
Posted by sprettster on 10-Dec-2003 09:21:44 (#5732)
Thanks for the replies. It seems to me that the betting efficiency of the KO is rather weak compared to balanced counts that calculate a TC. Is that just a misconception on my part? Is there a way to strengthen the KO betting efficiency by somehow converting the RC to a TC for betting purposes?
I'm looking at the KO just to understand how unbalanced counts work. I'm quite happy with the AOII as it does well in the 1D and 2D games I usually play.
Sprettster
Re: The Key Count is the Key
Posted by Jim2 on 26-Dec-2003 23:06:12 (#5911)
I have used the KO count for a while, and I notice that with the large negative IRC in shoe games that it is very hard to get to the -5 RC needed to increase the bet spread. If there is a slug of 10 count cards early in the shoe, the count will never get positive. Thats a part of the KO system that I don't like, the simplicity is nice, but there is lots of playing time wasted using basic strategy and a flat bet. It can be frustrating.
I have played quite a few shoes on CVBJ for practice and notice that the count doesn't get to the point of bet ramping very often. This is confirmed my casino play that has the same results.
I have switched to the high low system because of this problem. Conversion of the RC to a TC shouldn't be that difficult.
Re: The Key Count is the Key
Posted by maple on 13-Jan-2004 23:59:28 (#6178)
I think a lot of KO players do as I do. Start any shoe with 0 as an IRC
rather than with a negative number. In a 6 deck shoe, +16 is the key count and time to raise, + 20 for insurance etc. Goes the same for any number of decks, start all at 0 and recalculate.
Re: The Key Count is the Key
Posted by Lars on 24-Jan-2004 15:11:39 (#6360)
the whole point of the K-O system is to keep only one count as opposed to 2 different counts (running and true) with other systems sprettster ... its for simplicity sakes... it doesnt claim to be as more powerful as Omega II or other systems just that its simplier and can be as accurate.. me myself i would rather have only one count (running) in my head then 2.. especially with all the noise of the casino (slots, waitresses in their skimpy dresses, ploppies etc.) and not have to worry about converting a running count to a true count.. or estimating how many decks are left etc.. etc.. anyways other then that i wanted to ask the board if they know where i can purchase the software that accompanies the K-O system or if V & O have a website... thanks..
Re: The Key Count is the Key
Posted by Lars on 24-Jan-2004 18:58:26 (#6368)
oh forget it .. i found the K-O site ... the link is if your interested in exploring the system more etc.. : http://www.koblackjack.com/
the future, the other point of view and it looks bad
Posted by Victoria on 05-Dec-2003 11:18:24 (#5662)
Following discussions on 6/5 and other deteriorations of BJ rules, I find we always look at things from the AP point of view. We say if the casinos will not offer better games (that is code for games that can be beat) we will not play. Well guys, they really do not want us to play. During my recent trip to Vegas the 6/5 single deck tables were full of suckers, the CSM games actually had more ploppys than the hand shuffled games, and games like slots and roulette were busy. Folks, we are not their target audience and we never will be. If the uneducated players don't care and continue to play, if all the new games being introduced have 3% house edges and more, then I am not surprised that casinos study BJ rules, looking for ways that will increase their edge and keep the ploppys at the tables.
Some places offer better rules at higher stakes and though I am not an accountant, it is easily understandable to me. Take that house edge and figure what the "rental" is for your seat at a $5 flat bet for an hour. With 100 hands or $500 bet and an edge of 1% the house makes $5 per hour. They need to make more than that per seat. The places we like make the difference up quite often on the higher stakes players, but casino accountants might not look at it that way. On a higher stakes table, with an average bet of $100, or $10,000 bet per hour and an edge of only .5% they take a rental of $50 per hour, so they can afford better rules. The problem for us is that the same $10,000 on a slot probably makes them $500, over $100 for craps and so on.
If you threw out every machine from a casino and only had blackjack tables, with rules that we like, you probably would have very few casinos. I really think that even with their bad rules, ownership feels that they are keeping blackjack alive as a tradition and income from other games is supporting it.
So at 31 years old, planning to be a partimer for a very long time, you will have to pardon me for wondering if this opportunity will last.
Victoria
Re: the future, the other point of view and it looks bad
Posted by Learning to count on 05-Dec-2003 13:48:38 (#5665)
It is the sin of gambling. People who gamble are degenerates. A degenerate is someone who will destroy his life in order to persue his addiction. The casinos are part of the sin. They offer the addiction that destroys the suckers. We as AP's are also addicted to the game. The differance is that we are addicted to winning. We strive to play games that give us the edge. The casinos and us are on both sides of the greed element of this game. We both want money but we crave the road getting there. Eventually the game will get better or disappear as we know it. Dont fret Victoria there will always be a AP who finds out how to beat the game.
Re: the future, the other point of view and it looks bad
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 06-Dec-2003 05:06:10 (#5671)
We have to look at it this way- we are getting something for nothing now. We are getting paid while providing no useful service to anyone, just because we have certain skills that most don't. On the other hand, the casinos do the same thing.
We are not the problem, in the large casinos me and a hundred guys like me could play every night and they wouldn't miss the money. The problem as I see it is slots. If the Indian casinos in CT had their way there would be nothing but slots. The state of CT takes a 25% vig on all slot revenues in exchange for not putting slot machines in parimutuel facilities, and they still can't stuff slots in there fast enough. The reason is the high cost of Northeastern labor. Every year they import a few thousand workers from Poland to work in those casinos because they can't find locals willing to work for their wage, and slots require very little labor. They can also set them to pay whatever they want.
Anyway there are still plenty of good games out there if you play shoe. The other side is they are replacing normal BJ with those bullshit derivatives. I can't believe how many people play Spanish 21. That game can be beat, but not by enough margin to make it worth it.
Yes, we basically are insignificant, the bad rules are not directed at us.
Posted by Victoria on 06-Dec-2003 10:33:43 (#5673)
I agree that we do little to effect the bottom line of casinos. The point I wanted to make that casino execs even if there were no AP's would still be looking for ways to increase their take on BJ, or as you said, keep introducing variations of the game that have increased edges. They are in business to make money, as much money as possible, as quickly as possible without chasing the ploppys and high rolling types away.
Slots are a great example, no sick days, no benifits, no retirement, no salary,just initial investment and maintenance and the money steadily comes in.
I really do not think the new bad rules in blackjack have anything to do with us but we definately are effected by it.
red can pay rent at older places only
Posted by John Lewis on 07-Dec-2003 03:52:17 (#5685)
< As far as the red chip goes, as I said in my first post, the house just does not make enough to justify renting that seat with a low edge. >
Red blackjack with standard (fair) rules definitely can't pay the mortgage of new places, most definitely not on the Strip.
But there are still good red games to be had at older places that don't have the mortgage payments. Downtown Vegas and Reno/Northern Nevada are the most notable examples. Hopefully there will always be enough money to be made at good red games to pay the bills at low overhead places like these.
Re: the future, the other point of view and it looks bad
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 06-Dec-2003 10:45:37 (#5674)
You said:
We are getting paid while providing no useful service to anyone, just because we have certain skills that most don't.
It's the "skills" that we have that allows us to beat certain games. This creates the buzz out there in the gaming world, that it is in fact possible to sit down at a table and win $ time after time. Any player that hears of what it is that we are able to do, will assume that they can, maybe, just possibly do similarly the same by giving it a try with the knowledge they possess. Therefore, essentially we are more of a benefit to the industry than a detriment.
Stealth
The market might correct it....
Posted by Alexander Mundy on 05-Dec-2003 15:39:40 (#5666)
tho I wouldn't "count" on it. Even tho most ploppies don't know the "vig" of most games, they will know, perhaps not individually, but collectively, that they are losing more and faster. They will not have as much fun - playing time -for their money. So, again collectively, a percentage of players will make fewer trips to the casinos and play less BJ. Then, the theory goes, a casinos, trying to fill the empty seats, will offer better games, 7/5 BJ, and eventually 3/2 SD will make a comeback on the strip. (I remember when the strip was mostly SD). Of course I've been waiting for that to happen in Reno (where I reside) for a few years now. In Reno, where business has dropped precipitously and a dozen casinos have closed, they are doing the opposite - worse games, tighter comps, and quicker barrings. The result is empty casinos. I've had this discussion with a few casino executives - on the surface they seem to understand it - maybe even agree with it, but to no avail (the Siena made it's game DOA after a discussion tho I doubt if I persuaded them - they don't let me play anyway - or at least they think that they don't let me play). The horse racing industry has nearly imploded by onerous takeout rates, over 20% including breakage, and has only been saved by simulcasting and slot machines at racetracks. Again, the average horseplayer doesn't know what the takeout is, but they do know that they go broke faster. Unfortuneatly, the market hasn't corrected racing yet either. Even tho NY lowered it's takeout by 3%. The future is rarely as bleak as it appears, there are still a lot of players out there making money playing BJ. Even tho, hit them as hard and as often as possible now - just in case the future really is bleak.
I Wish I Could Find the Post...
Posted by SammyBoy on 05-Dec-2003 16:50:44 (#5667)
There was an older gentleman that has been playing BJ since the 60's that posted (somewhere) that he remembers thinking back then that the game of BJ would not continue as a beatable game for very much longer. Now 40 years later we are wondering the same thing. It seems to me that in the places I play, the games are better now than they were 5 years ago. Maybe one day BJ will die, but I'd bet you that it will live much longer than any of us think it will.
Re: the future, the other point of view and it looks bad
Posted by wongout on 06-Dec-2003 11:01:53 (#5676)
As long as I have been playing (maybe 12 yrs or so) its been nothing but its the end! But I am still playing and games conditions improve and decline. I cant predict the future but suggest that as long as you can play with an acceptable edge...go for it. As the saying goes ..."if it swells..ride it!"
wong out
Let's talk roulette
Posted by V-man on 05-Dec-2003 20:19:43 (#5669)
Advantageplayer.com has a new Roulette section hosted by Laurance Scott. He claims that training his way can reach 20% edge over the house! If this is true (even close to true), playing roulette is way better than 1-2% edge in BJ?
Re: Let's talk roulette (NOT)
Posted by phantom007 on 06-Dec-2003 12:22:33 (#5677)
If this new roulette system is free, I might check it out on the basis of educational interest only. If it is for sale, I would put it in the same stack as "Secrets to Winning the Lottery, only $9.95 + $4.95 Shipping and Handling...
PLEASE DON'T SEND MATCHES".
phantom007.
gaming/roulette and all that
Posted by eyes for 21 on 07-Dec-2003 16:05:08 (#5689)
First of all so many blackjack and gaming guru's try to sell
information for bucks, we like the Mayor because
he doesn't peddle info for cash,and us players
respect that.
To "Seeker" re: bjfonline
Posted by The Mayor on 06-Dec-2003 12:34:27 (#5679)
I pressed the wrong key and deleted your post, I am so sorry. Could you please resubmit.
Thanks.
--Mayor
Not Me!
Posted by phantom007 on 06-Dec-2003 16:29:44 (#5681)
Mayor:
Your post hit my personal e-mail as a message...I am not a "Seeker", well...at least I did not post as "Seeker". Actually am Seeking Poker advice, but this not the place, nor the time....off to PartyPoker.com (with Slansky's Books open while I play)...GRIN!
phantom007.
Repost
Posted by Seeker on 06-Dec-2003 19:49:05 (#5683)
Mayor, I appreciate your concern, but on my screen at least my post still appears. Anyway, I've copied it here in case it really is unavailable to some people. It was in response to BlackJackHack's comment that a defect of other sites, including BJF Online, was that people are referred to books available for sale on the site. (He also mentioned paid portions of a site, which BJFO never had.)
Repost from "Re: bjfonline" thread:
I was one of the BJFO moderators who sometimes mentioned books for sale on the site, so I want to comment on that point.
On the Usenet newsgroup rec.gambling.blackjack, where nothing is for sale, I sometimes answer newbies' questions by pointing them to a book. The simple fact is that, in a few decades' worth of existing blackjack literature, you can find answers to quite a few questions. On RGB I've also given information about where such books can be purchased, including links to bj21.com, ConJelCo.com, and rge21.com.
On BJFO, a site hosted at no charge by Huntington Press, it just seemed tacky to me to refer people to one of HP's competitors. Therefore, when I recommended a book, even if it was a book not published by HP (such as Blackjack Attack, published by RGE), I gave a link to where HP was selling it.
There was no policy on BJFO of trying to increase HP's sales. The moderators were never instructed to hawk HP products, to avoid criticizing books published by HP, or anything else. When I referred to a book, I did so because I thought my comments would help people find their way through the many blackjack books available.
The only time I can remember that HP's commercial interests were involved was when someone posted something about how to abuse Las Vegas Advisor coupons. Anthony Curtis responded, with some asperity, pointing out how the suggested tactics would make the casinos less likely to provide the coupons, and thus be harmful to the players overall (as well as harmful to HP).
Re: Repost
Posted by DVCellini on 07-Dec-2003 00:39:21 (#5684)
Thank you Seeker! Since my departure from that site I've been accused of everything from bad talking our old haunt to killing Arnold. People don't understand how easy it is to get an e mail address with any name.
About the site, truth is we never pushed anything and when the vote came around whether to allow Pop Ups and other forms of irritating advertisement we all agreed that it would be a sell out and decided not to do it.
My concerns kicked in when the "fight club" started. The exposure of private e-mails posted on the fight club page made me ill. It turned into the personnel Vendetta Page. You should know this Eliot! People tore into you on that page and when I tried to defend you my posts were busted!
I was the first to finally back out/step down. I know all the reasons for the demise of BJFO but it's not for me to say. To this day I still back AS and I believe he will step up and give his side when things mellow out.
Best
-Cellini
Re: Repost
Posted by Learning to count on 07-Dec-2003 10:35:44 (#5686)
The only real reason a site can fail is by hackers or lack of funding. If the failure of the site is due to inner strife then that is sad. BJFO was by far a excellent medium for card counting. It started with a bang and expanded very fast into all the facets that this type of website could even become: education, legal matters, advance play and strategy, history, comedy/entertainment, friendship as well as honest open descent and debate. They had expert knowledge on how the casino thought, watched and rewarded the gambler and AP alike. What a site...and it was lead by a legend of card counting Arnold Snyder. I'm waiting to see what will happen. Is this the end or is it a reconstruction of a great idea into perfection or is it over. We will wait and see. For now CC.COM is the pick of the week for Anthony Curtis and that makes me proud to be a part of this medium!
Vendetta or Not
Posted by Titaniumman on 07-Dec-2003 12:59:31 (#5687)
The exposure of private e-mails posted on the fight club page made me ill.
As you know, I am the one who posted the emails. Lots of people like to think that Arnold put me up to it. He did not. Arnold did advise & help me, but only at my request, and he never tried to pursuade me to do anything.
The posting of the emails were my idea. I did it out of necessity, and that necessity was even proven in the emails.
A lot of people know me around here, quite a few personally. I am known as a person who stands by his convictions. I did what I felt was right, and I have no regrets.
Re: Vendetta or Not
Posted by DVCellini on 07-Dec-2003 15:56:53 (#5688)
"My concerns kicked in when the "fight club" started. The exposure of private e-mails posted on the fight club page made me ill. It turned into the personnel Vendetta Page. You should know this Eliot! People tore into you on that page and when I tried to defend you my posts were busted!"
T-Man,
With all due respect, I too have a right to express my opinions. The "private" e mails posted and the responses did make me ill! I wasn't taking sides. This opened up BJFO for the "Battle of the Sites." Arnold did discuss these matters with me prior to and I did voice my concerns as to what the ramifications could be. I even wrote an article about it (The Taking of BJF Online / Pelum 123). Everyone was now game for personal attacks and for no other reason than to hurt each other because of what site they posted on and whose side they claimed to support.
What you did was your business and you had your rights and reasons for what you did. But the fact remains that the Fight Club did turn into a Site vs. Site war.
By the way, I did not mean for my post to read as if it was your post that changed it into a "personal vendetta" page. If that's how you took it, I apologize.
-Cellini
No apology necessary.
Posted by Titaniumman on 07-Dec-2003 16:15:50 (#5690)
I wasn't offended.
And, your point is well taken. You certainly do have the right to express your opinions and feelings. I just felt compelled to state that I still stand by my actions.
It's good to see you posting. I particularly enjoy your humor.
For ME the Unknowing
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 07-Dec-2003 21:10:24 (#5692)
whew! I must have missed these posts. Why would you post someones personal email? You must have a good reason. And Celli, how do you figure it was a war between sites? I thought it was every man for himself, just nuckle dusters over leather gloves? And the site is toast because of that? I thouhg it was just a new direction?
Rob
Posted by DVCellini on 07-Dec-2003 23:06:01 (#5697)
That's what it started out being but then people started to selectively defend people then go back to their site of origin and stir the troops up.
Then I heard (after the fact) that certain people's posts were getting bumped only because of who they were or who they were defending. I don't know if this was true or not. In all fairness I did hear it more than a few times. I once altered a post because the gentleman was giving up too much of his own personal information. In fact I think it was LTC that pointed it out to me. The gentleman later thanked me/us for covering him.
Too much, too fast, and too far maybe?
Fight Club
Posted by Slowhand on 07-Dec-2003 21:13:08 (#5693)
You know, I never bothered going to the fight club. Consequently I am not aware of all that transpired there. I guess I missed some interesting activity, although it sounds like it was pretty vicious. It is truly a shame that it was bad enough to cause the demise of the site.
Slowhand
Slowhand - Fight Club
Posted by DVCellini on 07-Dec-2003 22:54:50 (#5696)
I wouldn't say the fight club was the cause for the demise of the site but it didn't help. I heard it first handed that most every computer literate surveillance and floor person in the U.S. was monitoring that page, laughing while writing down as much information as the accusers were willing to spit out in anger. Both the sin net and the Griffin alerts were pouring like Niagara Falls. People were being made (or had for that matter) because one person would post "Hey SXXXXXXX, I saw you at the Golden Nugget last night at 8PM playing on table 44, your basic sucks. Give up loser."
How such comments could be considered helpful or useful is a mystery to me. And to think it all went down hill from there. Even Jesus wasn't spared from the wrath of the Fight Club.
I still enjoy a two way friendship with Arnold and always will. There is no bad blood over there between any of the regulars, the posters, moderators, etc. It's possible that the site was over taxed, over worked, and underpaid. That site took a lot of time from a lot of people just to stay afloat. It was a very fast paced site.
BIA,
-Cellini
Re: Slowhand - Fight Club *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 08-Dec-2003 09:03:51 (#5702)
Celli, as a moderator at
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/blackjackcardcounterscafe/
I have been thru all of this previously, and ended up having to send people that wanted war to other sites, one set up particularly for that, BJ Flame Wars, and when things cooled down, the non-bj board here for spats over religion, politics, and what color Madonnas panties are today. I thought it was wise to create such a place on BJF board too, but never knew that people were exposing other players. I've seen all of that before from people that like to keep certain info and games to themselves. Making $$ can be a very serious business, and people can get nasty. There was an actual death threat posted here if I am not mistaken during one of these spats. It shows you how out of whack a person can get themselves when their blood boils. We are all in shock when we hear Johnny killed Bobby for a $5 bill. Well, that is where things can head.
If the Counter Cops were at BJFOL then they are hear, and everywhere.
Aside from all of the fight club, I figured that Anthony wanted to switch lanes and head out onto the Internet Casino Super Highway, and you ol' boys that like the black greasy dirt found on casino chips under your nails, would not want to be a part of that. He jumped for the brass ring, and is hanging onto it with one pinky finger now. We'll see if he can pull himself into it or slip right off into the safety net. I have found that before you changes lanes, you should signal FIRST, and he didn't bother to do that, and that is why we are all left wondering what the hell happened. There are skid marks all over the road, but damned if we can find any bodies or cars left. Was it the Blackjack RAPTURE?? laugh But you, oh messenger from the grave, speak freely, once again separating yourself from the clique. Thanks for caring. We are more than just a book buying public. More than simple people looking for an edge...
"We are more than conquerors!"
Re: Slowhand - Fight Club
Posted by Slowhand on 08-Dec-2003 20:51:19 (#5713)
Rob,
Thanks for the info. It does help explain what has happened. Hopefully more details will eventually surface.
Slowhand
Re: Slowhand - Fight Club
Posted by Sohrab on 09-Dec-2003 18:28:39 (#5725)
So is this where the gang has come? It was very sad what happened. I feel like friends has let me down. But if fightclubs were exposing each other to surveillance that shows how careful you must be. Did they do this to ruin the site?
Fight club was brutal
Posted by Learning to count on 08-Dec-2003 06:56:28 (#5701)
The arguements were rediculous. Every one criticizing each other for anything and everything. This is what the page was for,I guess, to release wasted life energy. It made me wonder if the fight club posters ever made it to the tables to play? There were threats and postal mutilations. It was verbally bloody. It surprised me because most of them have high IQ's. Yet they were very cruel to each other. It's like I always say with genuise you get a little insanity. I just hope the site comes back up without the fight club.
Fight Club served a function
Posted by Seeker on 08-Dec-2003 18:28:03 (#5710)
As "Learning to count" said, the Fight Club page was a release valve for excess energy. It always reminded me of a verse from "A Simple Song of Freedom," by Bobby Darin:
"Now, no doubt some folks enjoy doin' battle
Like presidents, prime ministers and kings
So, let's all build them shelves
Where they can fight among themselves
And leave the people be who love to sing."
My subjective impression was that the quality of the discussion on the other pages improved after Fight Club was established, because a lot of the garbage went to FC.
I Agree
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 09-Dec-2003 09:48:19 (#5715)
You have to remain professional when you post in the classroom, but can say what needs to be said at recess where there are no teachers to get in the way. And for those who like to sing,
"There is a time and a place for everything under heaven"
Alias
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 08-Dec-2003 19:00:30 (#5711)
Which alias did you use there LTC?
Aliases and masterbation
Posted by Learning to count on 08-Dec-2003 22:21:07 (#5714)
My alias but what else but "Rob MacGarvey". And as far as the excuse of FC being a medium for the release of pent up frustration well a good woman will suffice for that or I guess choking the rooster could help some of the pent up rage of those FC psychotic posters there!
Mac
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 09-Dec-2003 10:12:43 (#5717)
My Scottish cousin! How are yee lad??
Drop your rooster and grab yur wife,
Come on o'er, have the time o yer life
Roll up yer sleeves and get ye drrrink
Call me a bastard, I'll call you a fink
Ya see, that's life, that's the way that it is
The world is a stage, and it's all just show biz
Cuz at the end of the day, me lassies and lads
Ye should be happy, not complacent or sad
If ya went thrrrrough yur day with yur tail tween yur legs
And your ankles are sore from walkin on eggs
Then deep in side yur not really a man
Fur holdin yur tongue, when ya shoulda said somethan'
HEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEH >: ) *NM*
Posted by Learning to count on 09-Dec-2003 12:29:04 (#5720)
Backed off !!
Posted by Ace High on 07-Dec-2003 19:00:51 (#5691)
I was in a small club in Carson City. I was just getting into what I thought was a "Groove" apparently so did the dealer, She called the pit boss over and whispered something in his ear, He picked up the phone and in another ten minutes or so, They told me they didn't want my play... I didn't argue, I did ask "why," They gave me no logical response, Just management has decided they do not want your play. They invited me to play any other game besides B.J. but no more B.J. ever in their place..I guess I blew it.. But don't know why? I had a beer in my hand, Wasn't staring at the cards, and even lost count more then once.
I'm working on the Hi-Lo, balanced system.
OH, WELL!!! The life of a Newby ,
Ace High
Was this at the Carson Nugget sweatshop?
Posted by LVBear584 on 07-Dec-2003 22:24:15 (#5694)
The Carson Nuget pit boss watches the games while viewing an angled mirror above the pit, so it isn't obvious that he's watching you.
Assuming this is the place, they back off everyone who bets more than their average $3.00 ploppy and demonstrates any skill at all. Don't take it personally. There are plenty of other games in the Reno/Carson City area.
How long was your session?
Re: Backed off !!
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 07-Dec-2003 22:41:10 (#5695)
How large was your spread?
Hmmmm, I never got cooked there yet. Based on what LVBear said, I can assume my act is pretty good. + I guess I don't stay there very long either.
Hey LVBear: Remember the good ol' days at CVI in Minden with rules to die for? ;-)
Re: Backed off !!
Posted by Ace High on 08-Dec-2003 03:17:36 (#5698)
It was the "Carson Nugget" , The dealers name was "(Deleted)" I didn't notice the pit bosses name, It was in the evening. I guess my time was around 30 minutes. I was only spreading 1 to 5 units, and only when it was very apparent the cards were running rich.I mean very apparent, Another player even commented how there were no tens, and now was the time to increase our bets. They didn't say anything to him, (unless they did after I walked) It was more of a Practice session for me, then a Money making one. But I did something to tip them off????? So I guess I need to just take it as a Schooling session, I just wished I knew what for??And How to utilize it.
Ace High
"Ace High we deleted the names due to your exposing your self" Management.
Re: Backed off !!
Posted by Shaggy18VW on 08-Dec-2003 14:22:40 (#5705)
Did you raise your bets by more than a parlay (eg. "jump your bets"). This will tip most dealers and pit critters off. Be patient with your increases if heat may be an issue. If your playing a shoe game, the count will stay for a while.
Re: Backed off !!
Posted by Ace High on 08-Dec-2003 17:22:12 (#5708)
I'll give a rundown of the period, and maybe some of you caan give me Critique.
Critisizm is also accepted...
When I sat down the "first" thing I did was request cocktails. I bought in for $50.00 and being the first hand out of the shoe I bet 5 units, ($25.00).
I won that hand and pulled back to $5.00, I bet the $5.00 for quite some time just talking and watching the count. It stayed pretty steady the first shoe, but I did loose it a few times. After a couple of shoes, I was starting to keep up pretty well. Then new shoe shuffle and first hand out, I again bet $25.00. I verbaly made the comment that it worked once maybe it'll work again, It didn't, She brought up a B.J.. Again I requested another beer, The dealer wasn't very friendly and the guy next to me made some comment about her, ( I see the name was deleted from my other post, so I won't make that mistake again,,) The guy put a buck up saying maybe this will put you in a "better frame of mind," I played dumb and asked what that was for? He said it was a tip, I asked what a tip was, etc.etc.So I did it also.
The shoe was about 1/3rd in to it and was at +8, I was at 2 units and went to 5 units, That's when the dealer called the pit boss over.
So,What ya'll think..
Ace High
Re: Backed off !!
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 09-Dec-2003 11:42:59 (#5719)
Well that might have been playing a little too dumb, asking what a tip was! Everyone knows what a tip is. But the first time I went to Nevada and heard it referred to as a "toke", I was a little confused. Everywhere outside of Nevada a toke means something very different.
I tip big, real big, probably too big for my own good but I do it only when I am winning, which is the only time I have to worry about heat.
Were you mouthing the count maybe? If you bought in at $50, could be that you were just playing at a low-budget casino where they sweat everything. If you're playing shoe, I think you might be better off at a big time place where any red action is going to be invisible to them. Maybe find a table where someone is playing green or black and they won't notice you at all.
Your last point was a great point
Posted by Victoria on 09-Dec-2003 14:26:36 (#5723)
I agree, the small guy will not be noticed in the bigger places.
From my limited, 5 year, experience, playing green at shoes on the strip, with black chip and purple chip players at your table, tends to get you ignored. Sat next to a guy playing purple my last trip, he was doing well but was not counting. He would take insurance most of the time and when his insurance bet worked twice in a row (neutral counts), you could really see the eyeballing. Better than that, when a new shoe started, this pit critter was moving his lips. I sat there spreading $25-$250, though the max bet only got out there a few times, and felt like I had a free pass. At a table with red chip players, checks play would have been yelled out.
They did not toss the guy though, but I bet they might have if the shoe the pit counted and his bets would have worked out. The shoe was a good one, but since the high rolling ploppy was not getting cards, he kept reducing his bet as the shoe got better. Luck and coincedence can probably get ploppys tossed. If it were my place, I would upgrade the guys room, give him a great dinner and make sure he comes back to play.
I'm confused
Posted by LVBear584 on 09-Dec-2003 13:26:14 (#5721)
You said this happened at the Carson Nugget, which was my original guess. But you said it was in a shoe game. The Carson Nugget has only single deck games, no shoes. ???
What does a "toke" mean outside of Nevada?
One Toke Over The Line
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 09-Dec-2003 15:52:02 (#5724)
Toke: verb - To take a puff from a marihuana (sometimes refered to as "mary jane") cigarette. Usually hand rolled, commonly called a "reefer", or a "joint", chronic use of which can lead to East Fremont Street and being banned from the Western.
He's a Joker, a Smoker, a Midnight Toker! *NM*
Posted by Sonny on 10-Dec-2003 10:39:15 (#5736)
Don't worry about that dump place in Carson
Posted by Alex on 09-Dec-2003 14:19:27 (#5722)
There are 324 casinos in Nevada with 420 Bj games. In the US there are 1098 casinos with 1129 BJ games and in Canada there are 51 casinos with 66 Bj games.
So we have in the US and Canada about 1149 casinos that offer Bj games. If we want to be conservative and consider that only about 25-30% of them are worth playing with an edge then we have about 287/340 casinos to play in per year and never play twice in the same place. Getting on average $700 per casino will get you over $200,000 per year and you're only play once/year in any place. We practically will never run out of playing games if we are willing to move/travel around.
My honest opinion is that nowadays the card counters have the best of it. I tend to believe that in today's market it is very possible to play BJ for living. If you play red chips I think is almost impossible to play professionally for living. You are no winning enough to cover all the expenses. The "green chip" level will take some real hard work to manage a decent income per year. If you can handle the "black chips" action then the life is sweet and easy.
AlexD30
Re: Backed off !!
Posted by Learning to count on 09-Dec-2003 19:56:41 (#5726)
The shoe was about 1/3rd in to it and was at +8, I was at 2 units and went to 5 units, That's when the dealer called the pit boss over.
So,What ya'll think..
Ace High
Re: Backed off !!
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 09-Dec-2003 23:28:40 (#5727)
Ace High, you only over-did one thing that I found, which comes from this statement:
I played dumb and asked what that was for? He said it was a tip, I asked what a tip was, etc.etc.So I did it also.
This statement and action works only if its real and you're one of the newest and worst players to have ever played the game. I think you over cooked it right there. Then you upped your bet when the PC apparently thought the shoe was hot + your playing strategy skill was not consistant with someone who is totally new to the idea of playing a tip for the D (an absolute beginner). They new something was fishy and they didn't want to take any chances on you being an AP.
So what else did you say with regard to your statement of etc. etc.?
Stealth
Coups
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 08-Dec-2003 14:49:23 (#5706)
I realize this is probably a casino dependent thing. But, in general, does anyone ever have any trouble passing expired matchplays in Vegas? I had a couple last trip that were about 8 mos past their exp. date and had no problems using them.
I am sitting on a bunch right now that are all going to expire on Jan 1, and I won't be in LV again until around March. I don't want to get rid of them because I feel I need to try to use them next time out.(No Inquiries Please!).
Thanks
-Felix
Re: Coups
Posted by wong out on 08-Dec-2003 16:58:22 (#5707)
Felix:
If your not cheating then you are not trying. I would use them and be sure to follow the 1st law of casino advantage play: If you get an answer you dont like ask another pit; in general casinos are not well managed and the floor stiffs respond to ?'s based on the way they were chewed out 15 yrs and six jobs ago.
wong out
Re: Coups
Posted by Ace High on 08-Dec-2003 17:28:27 (#5709)
I guess this probably a stupid question, But,,, Do the FLoor "Stiffs" read this stuff???
Ace High
Only the ones smart enough to turn on a computer.
Posted by SammyBoy on 09-Dec-2003 09:51:48 (#5716)
So I would say most (90%) do not. But I would also guess that most casinos are represented here, as in their management, surveilance, some loyal dealers wanting to impress someone.
Re: Coups
Posted by revereman on 09-Dec-2003 11:10:20 (#5718)
The pits In AC sure read those coupons. On the other hand, there's nothing to lose trying to use the coupons, even in different pits. Just don't try to ask the same pit crew more than once.
Re: Coups
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 08-Dec-2003 20:27:15 (#5712)
Yup, For sure!
I didn't say I wasn't going to try. I just was wondering what I may run into.
Count Teams?
Posted by Dre on 10-Dec-2003 06:58:55 (#5728)
Hey everyone,
I am new to counting and am admitting to having read zero books on the topic (but Im going to be picking up a few and studying them religiously over the holiday). I am also only 21 so please excuse any ignorance i may exude in this post.
If I get a team of 3 (including myself): 1 guy does a hi-lo count, another guy does shuffle tracking, and a third guy does this count (for determinig when to take insurance)(http://www.blackjackmagazine.com/ManageArticle.asp?C=160&A=7), would we not have a nice advantage and a good opportunity at winning some nice cash over our break (we're all still in college)? Of course this is assuming that we could communicate with each other without getting guff from pitbulls...but having read an earlier post someone said that AC doesnt care about/doesnt watch red chip bettors, so my confidence level is somewhat raised. I got the idea from that book "bringing down the house" about those MIT students. anyway i wanted to know if this is a ludicrous dream or an untapped reality.
I tried to read though all the posts so as not to repeat anything. I appreciate all of your expertise and look forward to what you all have to say on this topic of having teams.
-Dre
Re: Count Teams?
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 10-Dec-2003 09:09:47 (#5731)
Hey Dr. Dre, whatup? Your plan will work but will not give you the edge MIT has. Your Jr. Mafia is all sitting at the same table which limits you. MIT, Hyland, Uston all have many tables covered. Then you need to carry a heavy bankroll from table to table, not sit and wait for it to show up at one table. With the count only getting into the Benjie zone x% of the time, you have to have many tables covered with ya playaz, then drop the bomb on them when day hot.
Now, I can offer you and your two team mates a shot at some good cash with my online team. You roll your bank through a group of casinos we play at and pick up all the bonus money, and I split the profits from the money the casino offers me to bring new players in. You get to double dip. Once you pull that off I can get you into the Internet Blackjack Mafia (IBM) where we are making even bigger profits from....well, playing. The IBM is bigger than the MIT, or the Hyland team is, and we have greater profit potential. Get your basic strategy down, and a NETeller account, and give me a shout if you are interested.
robmcgarvey@rogers.com
For some reason this sounds like an ad????
Posted by Learning to count on 10-Dec-2003 09:26:31 (#5733)
McGarvey does make money...for himself at least. Beware kid beware! Kid you need read some more and learn to count. Give your self some time in the pits and get some experience. If you can get get two close associates to learn along with you and start play with you, you will develop a team environment. Istarted with my two cousins Panthercounter and chicago slim and we have a ncie thing going. After you become good then start reading about team play and its structure:finance, count strategy, play strategy, casino comportment, team attack strategies etc. etc.. As far as Rob goes well thats a whole other world in cyber land.
What's This?
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 10-Dec-2003 12:18:43 (#5742)
"McGarvey does make money...for himself at least. Beware kid beware!"
I really don't know what your problem with me is LTC, but it is becoming obvious to me that you have one. I would like to get that out in the open, possibly in the non BJ area, or by private email, because I think your pot shots are uncalled for. We all make $$ on my team. You make it look like I stiffed you or something. I'll spell it out for everyone using ONE casino.
I send Dre's Team to one casino. I have several more available, but let's just go slow for now. We all make $300. All for knowing basic strategy.
"Kid you need read some more and learn to count. Give your self some time in the pits and get some experience. If you can get get two close associates to learn along with you and start play with you, you will develop a team environment. Istarted with my two cousins Panthercounter and chicago slim and we have a ncie thing going. After you become good then start reading about team play and its structure:finance, count strategy, play strategy, casino comportment, team attack strategies etc. etc.."
All good advice. Tell him what your team EV and SD is.
"As far as Rob goes well thats a whole other world in cyber land."
You are right. The biggest advantage is available online. The smallest standard deviation is available online. I am presenting to Dre's team an opportunity of a life time. No counting, gas expenses, etc, and you try to turn him away from that. Why? Because you hate to see me make money so much that you will throw a wrench into the gears? I'd really like to know. All I can say to you LTC is that if by chance you have convinced Dre or anyone else for that matter to avoid playing on my team, you have cost them, and myself, a lot of money. All online casino money. The "enemies" money. I think your selfish interests are involved here LTC. If you are running a similar team, I can understand that, and you should say that you are. If not, then you disappoint me.
We are actually going to step into something with an advantage of a minimum of 12.5% to a maximum of 65%, with an average of 35% for the most part, with an unlimited potential. By chosing different forks in the road, we can discover forks that no one has ever seen before, and learn how to get the most out of them.........together.
Re: What's This?
Posted by The Mayor on 10-Dec-2003 12:39:14 (#5743)
"The biggest advantage is available online. The smallest standard deviation is available online"
This is false. Coupon play is obviously better on both counts. There are other much better alternatives to online play. However, if you want a day job as an advantage player from home, then nothing beats online advantage play for about $50/hour low SD income.
--Mayor
Re: What's This? *PIC*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 10-Dec-2003 12:59:53 (#5744)
I don't think so from where I sit. If my team has an advantage of over 25% (not BJ) and we can play $1 hands where your table min for your coupons is what, $25? I should be correct. I don't know the perameters of your coupon, but do know that the team does not have swings like you have in your onland blackjack career Mayor. See below:
Is that record with or without coupons Elly? Tell the truth now! smile You should post a time frame and $ amounts or unit amounts on this. Use different colors for coupie play, and non coupie play.
Re: What's This?
Posted by The Mayor on 10-Dec-2003 13:49:23 (#5746)
Rob, you are not getting a 25% edge.
If a person deposits $100 to get a $100 match, then has to push the money through the system 10x to withdraw, that's $2000 worth of action. You lose .5% because of the house edge, that's $10, so you make $90 on your $2000 worth of action. To me that sounds like a 4.5% edge. I know this varies, but you will rarely see an edge above 5% with online play.
A coupon player playing match play on Roulette with a $10 match, who bets on a color (even money) has a 18/38 chance of winning $20 and a 20/38 chance of losing $10, for an EV of
(18/38)*20 + (20/38)(-10) = 9.47 - 5.26 = $4.21 on the $10 bet. That's 42% Rob.
--Mayor
Re: What's This? *PIC*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 10-Dec-2003 14:37:24 (#5747)
"Rob, you are not getting a 25% edge. If a person deposits $100 to get a $100 match, then has to push the money through the system 10x to withdraw, that's $2000 worth of action. You lose .5% because of the house edge, that's $10, so you make $90 on your $2000 worth of action. To me that sounds like a 4.5% edge. I know this varies, but you will rarely see an edge above 5% with online play."
Right, with a 90% ROI. You are talking blackjack, and I am talking sports and sports referral fees, something I am sure you do not have a grasp of yet. There are some great opptys online, like a sticky BJ match play where you can lose $100 or win $300, $450 with a BJ. 4x action. Tell me what advantage that gives you. When you lose they come at you with something better, so losing is not always losing.
"A coupon player playing match play on Roulette with a $10 match, who bets on a color (even money) has a 18/38 chance of winning $20 and a 20/38 chance of losing $10, for an EV of
(18/38)*20 + (20/38)(-10) = 9.47 - 5.26 = $4.21 on the $10 bet. That's 42% Rob.
Yes, I understand this. 42% on one hand. Can you play this coupon all day long? Usually there is one per coupie book. After qualifying for a $500 match play at certain online casinos, playing roulie is the way to convert it to cash, better than the 50% from BJ playing hand after hand after hand. Spread your 500 on all numbers and spin to win 35/37 (Euro) back.
Bottom line: online is better than onland IMO, and easier to get to, espec for someone facing AC rules like Dre is. You live close to LV, which includes a very small percentage of people on this planet.
NOW: back to that chart of yours Mayor. Coupie or no coupie? Units or dollars? A chart with no reference marks is not much of a chart.
Re: What's This?
Posted by The Mayor on 10-Dec-2003 18:38:55 (#5753)
>NOW: back to that chart of yours Mayor. Coupie or no coupie?
Straight blackjack -- no coupons.
>Units or dollars?
Yes.
> A chart with no reference marks is not much of a chart.
True, but it all you're going to get.
Each mark denote's one full day of play at the BJ tables. About 2 years worth of my play are there -- I have not played a full day of BJ in about a year.
--Mayor
Webbles
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 11-Dec-2003 10:45:58 (#5762)
>NOW: back to that chart of yours Mayor. Coupie or no coupie?
Straight blackjack -- no coupons.
Good for you! Why did you keep your coupie play separate from this chart?
>Units or dollars?
Yes.
Okay.......
> A chart with no reference marks is not much of a chart.
True, but it all you're going to get.
Exactly as I thought. Just keeping you...........honest?
Each mark denote's one full day of play at the BJ tables. About 2 years worth of my play are there -- I have not played a full day of BJ in about a year.
98 full 8 hour days? So are you saying when you play an hour you add that to 7 more, then make a mark? Are you saying that you haven't keep this chart up to date over the last year, or that you only mark full days?
Now imagine a line that goes almost str8 up. Actually at around 81 degrees. No $ figures, no % of total bankroll, no time frames, just a nice smoooooooth line that stretches into the sky...........
Rob you of all people should not take my ....
Posted by Learning to count on 10-Dec-2003 14:50:04 (#5748)
ribbing so personally. I'm sorry if I touched a nerve. You make money for everyone you deal with! I will calm down from now on. I enjoy your posts and I read your and have learned from your wisdom. I extend the hand of friendship to you.
U were Joking? *PIC*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 10-Dec-2003 15:06:47 (#5749)
"McGarvey does make money...for himself at least. Beware kid beware!"
"As far as Rob goes well thats a whole other world in cyber land."
Re: U were Joking?
Posted by Learning to count on 10-Dec-2003 16:28:33 (#5751)
Hey sorry but you were advertising! And to do that to a virgin is just not right. Tell the kid to meet some where else and explain your strategies. So if ya cant accept my apology well the all I can say is that I misjudged the affect of my ribbing. I will not bother you any more.
Peace in the Valley
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 11-Dec-2003 11:20:24 (#5764)
"Hey sorry but you were advertising! And to do that to a virgin is just not right."
I answered his questions and gave him another option to make solid money. I would think that anyone would do that if they had the opportunities I have. I have players on my team that invite their family members to join them doing what we do. Treating this guy like family is not like raping a virgin with a poster panel sign.
"Tell the kid to meet some where else and explain your strategies."
I did! Go read the message, my email address is right there.
"So if ya cant accept my apology well the all I can say is that I misjudged the affect of my ribbing. I will not bother you any more."
I forgave you yesterday, but I did want you to see what kind of damage you were doing to others, including yourself, and that is why I posted what I did. Don't say you won't bother me. I value your friendship and your input. And please, no more jumping from the top rope swinging a metal chair! ;>
Re: Count Teams?
Posted by The Mayor on 10-Dec-2003 11:05:52 (#5737)
First of all, don't set foot in a casino until you have read a decent book (or two).
Then take it slowly, read a lot, and use your play and casino experience in tandem with your study to improve all aspects of your play. You must get a lot of experience with the counts or betting systems you want to use before considering a team.
As far as your idea, hi-lo and shuffle-tracking do not work well together, and you should not even consider it. The shuffle-tracker may cut the rich slug to the top, so the best betting opportunities are happening in severely negative counts, the hi-lo player is making min bets, the tracker is very happy.
The insurance side count works well for the hi-lo player, but the shuffle-tracker will have an entirely different way of playing insurance.
You're mixing ideas -- danger danger danger.
--Mayor
Re: Count Teams?
Posted by ChumashGaucho on 13-Dec-2003 16:15:51 (#5783)
I meant to ask you this over the Hold'em table Mayor, but I guess you had an incident. Sorry about that.
Do you think a team could operate, in a certain Central Coast indian casino, repeatedly, if they are already known by Casino staff as regular customers?
Not this semester, at least.
Posted by Sonny on 10-Dec-2003 11:06:45 (#5738)
> If I get a team of 3 (including myself): 1 guy does a hi-lo count, another
> guy does shuffle tracking, and a third guy does this count (for determinig
> when to take insurance), would we not have a nice advantage and a good
> opportunity at winning some nice cash over our break (we're all still in
> college)?
First of all, Like Rob said, you will all be playing at the same table. You would be making more money if you all used hi-lo and played at different tables. Also, you would all be raising and lowering your bets in unison. This will be very obvious to anyone watching. Using the "Big Player" approach (read up on Ken Uston for more info on this. He covers it MUCH better than the MIT team) would be a better plan, if you can pull it off.
Secondly, are you planning to do this on Xmas break? If so, then your plan is going to fail. Here's why:
> I am new to counting and am admitting to having read zero books on the topic
> (but Im going to be picking up a few and studying them religiously over the
> holiday).
I'm guessing that your buddies are also new to the game. The problem is this: you CANNOT learn to count cards in a few weeks and expect to play well on a team. It could take several months before you are comfortable counting cards in a casino environment. On top of that you are trying to learn signals and team plays as well. If you are all newbies you will be struggling to keep the count during your first few sessions, and you will not be fast enough to give signals or read signals from other players. You will probably misread a few signals as well. All these things will corrupt your edge. I won't even mention the difficulties of trying to learn shuffle-tracking.
Your best plan is to each learn the hi-lo. Practice together, play together, and take a few practice trips to a casino before you start any dreams of team play. You may find that your buddies aren't willing to put in the effort to learn to count properly. This is important to know BEFORE you start a team. If you want to start a team, do it AFTER you are all competent counters. Until then, just read everything you can and practice, practice, practice. Once you and your buddies can all play alone in a casino you can start to work on your team tactics...maybe next semester.
-Sonny-
P.S.- I've been playing for three years now, and I'm still perfecting my solo playing. I't doesn't happen overnight.
Re: Not this semester, at least.
Posted by Dre on 10-Dec-2003 13:34:47 (#5745)
Hey,
Thanks for the input guys, i appreciate it.
Sonny, nah i wasnt going to try it over break. i know it takes months of practice i think i read somewhere you should practice for a bare minimum of 1 hour a day for 3 months. i want to do this starting late july (im trying to be realistic)
as far as not stepping in a casino before reading a book goes, i would completely agree...but i definitely have gone about 6 or 7 times since turning 21 (late may of this year). i only lost once, just playing basic strategy. i was pretty lucky. i know it was stupid to do but hey, we all gotta start somewhere.
thanks again for your input and ill talk to my buddies about the bonus sign up gig, though we might be too amateur for you and your team rob!
take it easy,
Kings Shuffle machines
Posted by theshuffleking on 10-Dec-2003 07:17:41 (#5729)
Who has experience with shuffle machines that create a huge advantage or disadvantage, because cards get "stuck" it being that they do not come into the game?
I am especially interested in those that have experience with the King's shuffle machines.
Re: Kings Shuffle machines
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 10-Dec-2003 08:42:06 (#5730)
You have to be careful who answers this type of question. This can be uncharted territory, and that is where the lunatic fringe likes to hang out.
Not quite
Posted by The Mayor on 10-Dec-2003 10:04:24 (#5735)
This is not uncharted territory at all. There is a long history of trying and sometimes succeeding in beating these beasts. Remember, EVERY game must be looked at for advantage, I think the poster has exactly the right idea.
However, if it is the case that something is known about this, or other SM King defects, the last thing you would want to do is post the answer here or otherwise discuss it in a public forum.
--Mayor
Re: Not quite
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 10-Dec-2003 11:13:09 (#5739)
Basically I was warning this poster that there are people that would like to take advantage of players that want a get rich quick scheme, not that there is no possibility that the SM doesn't present an advantage. I know players that say the game is totally random and that is how they exploit it, and players that say it is not random and know how to exploit that. Could be different versions. I know the first version interlaced the cards in a sequence that could be tracked, but that version has long been off the casino floors. Do they have the math to prove it? If they do, as you suggest Mayor, they would be wise to keep that to themselves.
Re: Not quite
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 10-Dec-2003 11:21:53 (#5740)
Well, I don't know about that, Mayor. Suppose there were an EASILY exploitable defect in the CSM's. I'd call up the major news networks with it and have them do a story, and bet you within 24 hours you wouldn't see a CSM in any casino anywhere. And the next time the CSM salesmen come around to the casinos with their new-and-improved product, the casinos will remember how they were burned last time and say "Uh, no thanks." So publicizing it could work to our advantage.
Re: Not quite
Posted by theshuffleking on 11-Dec-2003 05:25:48 (#5756)
Personally I have been thinking of keeping track of something like a running count. If after let say 10000 cards coming out, the count is +/- more than 500 then something must be wrong?!?
Does anyone know how many decks normally go into this Kings shuffle machine?
Re: Kings Shuffle machines
Posted by Learning to count on 10-Dec-2003 09:30:42 (#5734)
Are these continuous shuffler's or just a shuffle machine???? If they are a CM then I dont play. If they are just a shuffler then I will play.
Re: Kings Shuffle machines
Posted by Jenia on 12-Apr-2004 03:11:36 (#7603)
If "Mayor" or someone else wants to discuss about the King SM privatily I'll be grateful.
Jenia
Math Question
Posted by Mr Pill on 10-Dec-2003 11:38:14 (#5741)
If during a promotional period the following happened, what would be the effect on the house edge.
The game is: 6D S17 DA2 DAS Sp3 SpA1 LS FU AS DSA Pen is 75%
If during a promotional period of 4 hours they drew one card and during this period this was the "wild card". And if during this period you make a winning hand that contained this wild card you would get paid double your bet of up to $25.
What would the effect be on the EV of the game? To start with I believe the player EV of the game without the rule would be about -0.23%.
How is it calculated?
Thanks in advance,
Pill
Finding the equation of a hyperbola ...
Posted by Keith Jamison on 11-Jul-2005 21:08:32 (#13501)
Hello. My question is as follows. Assuming that one has a hyperbola with either focus as the origin, also given two points on a graph,... how would you find the equation of a hyperbola?
Re: Math Question
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 10-Dec-2003 15:10:46 (#5750)
Only one card per 6 decks, or 1 card per deck is the payoff card??
Re: Math Question
Posted by Mr Pill on 11-Dec-2003 11:16:36 (#5763)
"Only one card per 6 decks, or 1 card per deck is the payoff card??"
The pit would draw a wild card from a standard 52 card deck. Say they drew the 4 of diamonds. During the promotional 4 hour period, the players would play from regular 6 deck shoes at the various tables. So each table would have 6 wild cards, in this case the six 4 of diamonds in each shoe.
When the player wins a hand, and if it contains the wild card, then they get paid double their wager. Also note just because the wild card shows up in your hand does not mean you win the hand, you still have to beat the dealer.
My assumption is also that some cards are better for the player to be "wild" than others. Some form of a 10 card being the best and a 5 card being the worst?
Pill
Re: Math Question
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 10-Dec-2003 17:34:00 (#5752)
Just off the top of my head... if you have a wild card in your hand you have or will have an automatic 21. Let's say on the average you take 3 cards per hand, that's 3/52 times you will have this extra 21, or 5.77% of the time. Multiply that by the percentage of times the dealer doesn't have a 21, again by the percentage of times you would have had a 21 anyway, and again by 2 to factor in the 2:1 payoff, and you should have something like the correct answer.
Certainty Equivalence
Posted by NewToTheGame on 10-Dec-2003 20:02:45 (#5754)
Can someone talk about certainty equivalence (CE). I watched the HotShoe movie and mr. bloch mentioned that the team calculated EV, SD and CE. Was wondering what it exactly means, how implement it into your strategy, and how to calculate it. Thanks.
Regards,
NewToTheGame
From the BJ FAQ
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Dec-2003 08:00:58 (#5757)
Q3: What is "Certainty Equivalent"?
A3: Would you rather make a bet of $200 on a coin flip with an average profit of $20 or accept $5 risk-free? Would $10 risk-free persuade you not to make the bet? How about $15? Your "certainty equivalent" (or risk-free equivalent) is the amount that participation in the bet is worth to you. -- perhaps $5, $10, or $15 in this example.
The Kelly criterion with Kelly number 0.3 advises you to maximize the expected value of u(x) = x^(1-1/k) / (1-1/k), where k = 0.3 and x is your resulting bankroll. If your bankroll is $10,000 then the $200 bet gives an average value of u(x) of
55% * u(10200) + 45% * u(9800) = some number
If instead you were offered an amount "CE" risk-free the average value of u(x) would be
100% * u(10000 + CE) = some other number
These two expressions are equal when CE = $13.38. This is the "certainty equivalent" of the above bet for you if you are a Kelly better with the Kelly Number 0.3 and with a $10,000 bankroll. This amount, $13.38, is how much participation in the bet is worth to you. In particular, if the CE for this bet were negative the bet would be worth a negative amount to you and you should avoid it if possible.
Q4: How can certainty equivalents be used in a practical setting?
A4: The need for the use of logarithms and exponentiation makes the calculations quite difficult when analyzing a complex game such as blackjack. A formula for approximating the certainty equivalent (that is very accurate when your advantage or disadvantage is 10% or less) is
CE = E - V/2kB
where CE is the certainty equivalent, E is the expected winnings, V is the variance of those winnings (i.e. the square of the standard deviation), B is your bankroll and k is your Kelly Number, a measure of the amount of risk you wish to take. The Kelly criterion corresponds to k = 1.0 and in this situation this formula closely approximates calculations based upon the log(x) utility function. When k is not 1, the utility function that you are approximating is x^(1-1/k) / (1-1/k).
For the $200 coin flip above which has E = $20 and V = $$39600 (the standard deviation is $198.997) the formula gives a CE = $13.40 which is quite close to the exact value of $13.38 derived above.
Mayor, you are great and certainly very educated in this field
Posted by Alex on 11-Dec-2003 11:54:08 (#5766)
Mayor, you are great and certainly very educated in this field. Now, would you please go over step by step in simple terms with a real blackjack example of how to go about the CE and how to use the CE number before we get involved in any game. Please do that.
I, personally, use three numbers to determine if I'm getting myself or not into any game. They are: EV, StDev and the DI ( desirability index). I would love to know how to use the CE related to BJ. What is a "risk free" bet in BJ? - I don't think is one. No bet or no game regardless of the rules is risk free.
Please go over with a real BJ example like this one:
2 Decks, S17, DAS, DA2, Sp3, SpA1, LS pen 66% betting limits $100-$10,000
Bankroll = $100,000
Total units = 1,000
Unit = $100
Spread $100 to $700
EV = $170 per hour
StDev/hour = +/- $2,575
DI = 6.6
In the above setup I will get involved in this game because my DI is above 6. From my experience is worth to get into it if the bank is or above 100K
How to use the CE in this case?
Best Regards,
AlexD30
Re: Certainty Equivalence *LINK*
Posted by A;ex on 11-Dec-2003 09:00:51 (#5760)
Here is a lick where is an applet to play with and a detailed explanation.
AlexD30
Ace-Five
Posted by CowboyKO on 10-Dec-2003 22:05:28 (#5755)
A friend of mine will be traveling with me on my next blackjack trip and wanted to know if there was anything she could do to improve her odds over basic strategy. I told her she should learn to count cards if she wants to gain a real advantage over the house. She told me that she didn't want to put in the time and effort required to learn a respectable system, so I suggested that she use the Ace-Five count since it offers a slight advantage over basic. My question is: what is the appropriate bet progression for this count and what kind of advantage can she gain on SD games? I assume she should just increase her bet when the count is above a +1 TC. Thanks for any input.
CKO
Re: Ace-Five
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Dec-2003 08:05:53 (#5758)
>A friend of mine will be traveling with me on my next blackjack trip and wanted to know if there was anything she could do to improve her odds over basic strategy.
Yes, of course there is.
>I told her she should learn to count cards if she wants to gain a real advantage over the house.
Good advice!
>She told me that she didn't want to put in the time and effort required to learn a respectable system,
So why did she ask the question in the first place?
>so I suggested that she use the Ace-Five count since it offers a slight advantage over basic.
Given her response above, I doubt she knows basic strategy. BS is much more difficult to learn than a count system. Test her on a few (e.g. A-7 vs. T, A-2 vs. 3 and 4, and 2-2 vs. 4).
The A-5 count is not worth the time, if played perfectly she will be able to buy a cup of coffee on the EV in about 2 years, meanwhile the variance will be the only thing that she notices.
>My question is: what is the appropriate bet progression for this count and what kind of advantage can she gain on SD games?
My question is, what kind of friend asks for good advice, gets it, then turns her nose on it when it is given?
Tell her to play keno, maybe she will get lucky.
--Mayor
Re: Ace-Five
Posted by CowboyKO on 12-Dec-2003 10:53:56 (#5778)
Great response, and very appropriate, matches her exactly. She can play basic strategy well though. She accompanied me on my first Vegas trip and I watched her play. I think she knows DAS strategy since she was splitting 4,4 against a dealer 5 in a nDAS game downtown. It's not that I think she doesn't want to learn to count in the future, it is just that our trip is coming up relatively soon and she doesn't have the time to learn a system before we leave. Oh well, I'll just tell her to stick to basic strategy. Thanks Mayor.
CKO
Re: Ace-Five
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 13-Dec-2003 11:08:55 (#5782)
Just make sure you set her up in a game that has favorable rules. Good rules + good comps = break even for a BS player. Ace-five could be a useful first step in learning to count, just to see how it works, but High-Low isn't that much harder.
Re: Ace-Five
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 13-Dec-2003 22:21:59 (#5784)
CKO:
If she is somewhat serious about learning to count in the future, don't have her twist her mind in a hurry to learn an ace-five count. If she were to learn it, then it could make it more difficult to retrain her mind when she's ready to learn a count that can provide a significant advantage.
In my beginning months of play years ago, I took the advise of an old time BJ pro. He told me that until I was willing to put forth the time and effort of keeping a RC, to just do three things: 1) Learn and play a perfect basic strategy. 2) Play SD with the best rules 3) Keep sort of a right-brain picture of good cards and bad cards (big ones and little ones) as they are dealt. Put more $ out after seeing an abundance of bad cards and put less $ out after seeing an abundance of good cards.
I became so good at this; I kept doing it for about a year before I decided to keep an actual perfect RC. Even got bared a couple of times. However, I don't advocate playing BJ anything near as long as I did in this manner.
Stealth
Ace/10 Front Count
Posted by BJ Mentor on 15-Dec-2003 00:41:08 (#5787)
There's a more effective count than the Ace/5. It's the Ace/10 Front Count. It's used primarily for the six deck shoe. It's not a plus/minus count. You simply tally up together all the 10's, Jacks, Queens, Kings and Aces that come out in the first two decks of the shoe. ONLY THE FIRST TWO DECKS! Once two decks hit the discard tray you stop counting and either raise your bet for the rest of the shoe, keep it at one unit or walk. Put out 4 units at a front count of "36", 6 units at "35", 8 units at "34" or less and keep it at 1 unit between "37" and "41" -- but walk at "42" or higher. It's a super-simple way to get a high/low "read" on a six deck shoe.
I'll Pass on the info thanks! *NM* *NM*
Posted by CowboyKO on 15-Dec-2003 16:56:27 (#5792)
Re: Ace/10 Front Count
Posted by JOHN HUSTLER on 13-Apr-2004 08:57:26 (#7607)
Can you simm the ace/10 front count.
rebates
Posted by bjman on 11-Dec-2003 08:33:10 (#5759)
If you play basic strategy and get a 10% rebate on your losses,how many units should you stop at before you ask for your rebate(or win)? DD h17 das da2 cards.
Re: rebates
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Dec-2003 09:34:30 (#5761)
I believe that optimal play is to play exactly one hand:
-> Cash out if you win the hand.
-> Ask for a 10% rebate if you lose the hand.
Then repeat.
In practice, you should cash out as often as possible when behind without drawing too much attention to yourself.
It may be much more complex than this, though that isn't obvious to me. Hopefully someone will contribute some proper theory to this interesting question.
--Mayor
Rebates & Match Plays
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 11-Dec-2003 11:37:55 (#5765)
The Mayor is correct. By losing 90% of your losing bets, and winning 100% of your winning ones, or 150% if you get a BJ, you should be ahead by 53% of 10% - the house edge, say around a 4.8% edge.
With the 100d/200b match play, we lose 100 or win 300, or 450.
L 100 x 53 = -5,300
W 300 x 47 = 14,100
8,800 profit over betting 10,000
Please explain
Posted by revereman on 11-Dec-2003 12:45:22 (#5768)
So between you and the Mayor, you are suggesting depositing $10,000 with an online casino, which will get you a $20,000 bonus? Flat bet $100 and then ask for and get $10 back every time you lose a hand? Why is it that each losing bet is $100 and each winning bet is $300? Every 100 hands you are guaranteed to lose 53 and win 47 for a guaranteed 88% return? There may be one or two players on this board from the US. How do we legally fund and play these accounts?
These are serious questions so please don't bust this post. I am trying to understand these concepts.
Re: Please explain
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 12-Dec-2003 08:38:11 (#5772)
"So between you and the Mayor, you are suggesting depositing $10,000 with an online casino, which will get you a $20,000 bonus?"
I don't know what the Mayor is saying about his matchplay. We are depo 100 and get a 200 match play. You can't take it out, so it is not real money UNLESS you win with it. So, we make a single bet of $300, 100 ours, 200 cyber cash.
"Flat bet $100 and then ask for and get $10 back every time you lose a hand?"
That is what is suggested for the Mayors example. He is right.
"Why is it that each losing bet is $100 and each winning bet is $300?"
Read above. Don't get the Mayors example confused with the 100/200 deal.
"Every 100 hands you are guaranteed to lose 53 and win 47 for a guaranteed 88% return? There may be one or two players on this board from the US. How do we legally fund and play these accounts?"
By using NETeller. That will also increase your take as many places will give you 10% just for using this hassle free way of sending your $$ to them.
"These are serious questions so please don't bust this post. I am trying to understand these concepts."
I am glad that you have this attitude. There is a lot of online predjudice that keeps people from even considering these advantages. That is precicely WHY they have to practically bribe you with cash to play online.
Re: Please explain
Posted by revereman on 12-Dec-2003 08:48:25 (#5773)
I'll try not to mix up your proposal and the Mayor's and stick with yours(hopefully). So deposit $100 and get a $200 bonus. Bet the whole $300 on one hand, right? Win that bet and now you have $300. How much do you bet on the next hand? After that? Let's say you lose the first hand (you've really only lost your original stake of $100). Do you then deposit another $100 and get another $200 bonus? And keep on doing this until you start winning and get a real bankroll? Any fees with Neteller? Thanks.
Re: Please explain
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 12-Dec-2003 09:33:59 (#5775)
Hahaha! You are asking all the right questions. NETeller has no fees if you transfer $$ into and out of casinos accounts. They do have a 1.9% fee for transfers. If I send one of my team members $500 I send them $510 so they get the full $500 they are expecting. Send me an email. robmcgarvey@rogers.com
laymans terms
Posted by bjman on 11-Dec-2003 19:36:33 (#5770)
1)Cant play one hand and leave.They wouldnt honor such an obvious advantage play.
2)I want to play at a full table so it seems like im there longer.
3)I need some calculations for a unit size that i can leave with, win and lose and still have an edge with the 10%.one hand is not a good answer.Its like telling me i should spread 1-10 black on single deck for optimal play.
Re: laymans terms
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 12-Dec-2003 09:28:54 (#5774)
"1)Cant play one hand and leave.They wouldnt honor such an obvious advantage play."
TRUE. I don't think you would last long onland. The online casino requires you to play the depo and bonus 4x. You lose, you walk, and they offer you something juicy. You win, you have 600 and have put in 1x play. Now you have to give them another 3x 300 to walk. We give them 3x, and they expect us to bolt. We don't. I have players that understand and mastered the use of ............snip
"2)I want to play at a full table so it seems like im there longer."
I guess you are talking about the Mayors example. He will comment on that for you. You need cover no matter where you are advantage playing no question.
"3)I need some calculations for a unit size that i can leave with, win and lose and still have an edge with the 10%.one hand is not a good answer.Its like telling me i should spread 1-10 black on single deck for optimal play."
Once again, the 10% loss deal is the Mayors baby.
I just wanted to give an example of the edge we have online. Someone woke up my bad temper and I let the sword of truth out of my mouth......snip
If you have further questions or comments about this topic please email me at robmcgarvey@rogers.com
This is Horrible!
Posted by SammyBoy on 11-Dec-2003 12:21:28 (#5767)
Here are the terms I received from an online casino offering a 50% bonus on my next deposit. If I'm understanding this correctly I would have to make $9K in BJ wagers for a $100 deposit + $50 bonus. After this I can only cash out if my balance is greater than $150. Am I missing something? What a f'ing rip off.
<u>Promotion Terms</u>
*Minimum 30 times wagering of deposit & bonus (excluding roulette, craps,
baccarat, with each $1 wagered on blackjack counting as 50 cents).
*Prior to withdrawal a balance greater than deposit + bonus required.
Re: This is Horrible!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 11-Dec-2003 13:07:35 (#5769)
This place is not playable. How does making $300 with a min of 2400 in action sound to you? Check your email.........
Away 12/12 - 12/21
Posted by The Mayor on 12-Dec-2003 08:30:06 (#5771)
I'll be away (checking in once in a while) 12/12 - 12/21. Please be nice to this site while I'm gone!
--Mayor
Re: Away 12/12 - 12/21
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 12-Dec-2003 09:43:29 (#5776)
You know posting a message like that without telling us that you are going to play blackjack for 9 full days just wont do! ;>
"Mayor'll be home for Christmas, if only in his dreams" Doesn't your Sun Festival start on the 21st? Dr. Evil has told me you are working with him on a giant magnifying glass that you will point at Lake Tahoe and turn it into a giant steam bath for counters for the 12 days following the 21st. Un ellymon, du ellymon......
You should use Jerry Springers line:
"Be good to this board, and each other"
Best El
Rob
Re: Away 12/12 - 12/21
Posted by The Mayor on 12-Dec-2003 09:52:26 (#5777)
OK, the trip includes:
3 days at a Celtic music festival (I play Irish flute)
1 day at Disneyland
1 day on the Queen Mary
1 day playing San Diego casinos
Several days in LV
Merry happy random seasonal events to you all!
--Mayor
Re: Away 12/12 - 12/21
Posted by Learning to count on 12-Dec-2003 11:16:09 (#5779)
Ugh Mayor can I come with TOO!!!! Ugh ugh I mean to Disney land????????
Re: Away 12/12 - 12/21
Posted by panthercounter on 14-Dec-2003 02:33:30 (#5785)
The only problem is Mickey offers no EV
Re: Away 12/12 - 12/21
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 18-Dec-2003 09:20:13 (#5828)
Minnie does! WINK
Re: Away 12/12 - 12/21
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 18-Dec-2003 09:23:26 (#5829)
May you reap what you sew tenfold in half a wink Mr. Mayor. In other words, many many HAPPY returns to you and your loved ones!
Rob McClaus
Bring on the Heat
Posted by Dschddny on 12-Dec-2003 13:00:08 (#5781)
When playing in Atlantic City, at what betting level would you say that heat would start, if your constantly wonging in and out of the game (but never leaving the table)?
I was told that if my bet spread is $5-$25 I don't have to worry at all, but what bets should make me aware?
Re: Bring on the Heat
Posted by wong out on 14-Dec-2003 17:59:02 (#5786)
Depends on the casino and condiitons. For the most part you should be able to play with impunity if your top bet is less than 100. The big places (caesar's, borgata) take high action a little better. Best advice is wong in/out and move around.
good luck
wong out
Not the way to do it!
Posted by theshuffleking on 15-Dec-2003 01:59:57 (#5788)
1.5 years ago I went to Atlantic City for the first and last time. I used to be an active card counter, but I am more into sports betting these days. I was on a holiday, so I had no intention of playing serious. I wanted to find out how soon one can be in trouble not trying to avoid any heat. Instead of staying out of the high stakes area I went straight into it. In the Taj Mahal I saw that the maximum was no more than $2500 a hand, so before I bought one chip, I started complaining that that maximum was too low, because sometimes I feel really strong on a hand and then I want to bet more, so I asked them, if they could higher the maximum. They said:"No". I then grabbed 50 x $100 out of my jacket. About three or four pit bosses came to the table in no-time. I then started wagering $100 only. Remember I was on a holiday, so I was more after the comps than trying to make serious money playing BJ. I was winning (without even counting) and decided to double up and ask for my hotel room, dinner, etc. They said:"We are sorry, but all rooms are full". I stopped straight away and did the same kind of thing in a few more hotels. I only got a room in the Tropicana that way. I did not have any intention of playing more than necessary, but it was bad weather and there is nothing else to do in that city than gambling, so I then decided to go back to the Taj Mahal and play slightly more serious. I was betting on a $100-2x$500 spread. I made $10000 in no time. Just pure luck. The next day I was told that my maximum was limited to $100. "Management decision", etc. Unbelievable! I could not believe my ears! Anyhow I went back to the hotel I was staying. There too I won $10000 in no time. I asked them if I could be offered a free meal in their Chinese restaurant. They made a reservation for me. While I was eating two guys came and sat down next to me. I asked them:"What is up?". I thought they were going to offer me the Presidential suite, but instead they said:"We do not like your playing style!". I said:"Oh, what is wrong with it?". They said:"Well, we are not going to pay for your dinner. You will have to pay it yourself!". I said:"Oh no problem. Please have a drink on me!". They rejected. Then 5 minutes later a heavy guy came in and he smashed his fist on the table saying:"YOU GOT TO PAY EITHER CASH OR WITH CREDIT CARD, BUT WE WILL NOT PAY YOUR MEAL". I asked this guy to calm down and sit down. Remember I was on a holiday and my income these days is not from Blackjack anymore. He did not want to sit down, but heated up even more and said that they were also not going to pay for my hotel room. I asked him how much it was going to cost me. About US$175 a night.
Anyhow the next day when I checked out and expected to get a huge hotel room bill, the guy at the cashier told me to pay $10 for telephone calls. I was shocked. The guy said:"Where you not aware of the fact that you had to pay $1 for each local call?". Before I could say anything the gentleman went on:"Well let me take it of your bill". I then did not get any bill. I looked even more stunned and asked:"So I do not have to pay anything?". He said:"No, I hope you enjoyed your time here!"
Re: Bring on the Heat
Posted by Dschddny on 15-Dec-2003 08:04:00 (#5789)
If the casino does ask you to leave, what is the best way to respond?
A) "OK"
Re: Bring on the Heat
Posted by wong out on 15-Dec-2003 19:34:35 (#5796)
Just boogey quietly and unobtrusively. Dont bother cashing your chips and dont look up at the camera (they probably have some nice photos already but you never know). You dont have to say a word (or even acknowledge them for that matter). Hopefully you can come back on a later shift and play.
WRT to the AC backoffs - I think that most AC joints are doing ya a favor by giving you heat. Who wants to play their crap anyhow?? There are a few ways to make money in the City but its tough and requires abit of scouting. Anyhow AC heat consists of:
-Turning off the comps;
-Cutting pen to 50%;
-Limiting Max bet to 100 (Taj) or 50 (Sands);
-Limiting you to one hand.
If your max bet is less than 100 you should be ok in most AC places.
Play elsewhere!
wong out
Can a shoe be top loaded with tens and aces?
Posted by Victoria on 15-Dec-2003 16:04:48 (#5790)
I only get to go to Vegas about twice a year and only on Indian Casino, The Chumash, is close enough to go to on a day trip. An uncle of mine has played there several times and always says that in 20+ years of counting he has never played as many negative counts as in this place.
I went last weekend, grinded out a small win in six plus hours of wonging out of many tables and tried to keep track of my uncle's paranoia. Every time I watched a new shoe, planning to wong in, the count was bad. While playing I experienced over a dozen shoes that went over a running count of minus 20 but the highest positive running count was 14. Only once was I able to get a max bet out. They use shuffling machines and I was wondering if these machines could somehow be set up to make counting useless.
Also, since my last visit, penetration has been reduced to about 66%, while in the past you might get 75-80% from many dealers. Oh give me a basically lazy dealer who has to hand shuffle, one like that I know in Vegas gives around 90% penetration.
Re: Can a shoe be top loaded with tens and aces?
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 15-Dec-2003 16:31:44 (#5791)
Doesn't sound unusual. With lousy 66% pen, it is going to be very rare to see an extreme count that merits a max bet.
You are going to see slightly more negative shoes than positive ones, and the negative counts are going to be slightly further from zero than the positive counts. How could it be any other way? If the counts were positive more often and/or bigger, than even a BS flat bettor would have an advantage. You have to overcome the house edge, remember?
Can a shoe be top loaded? SURE! But what would be the point? It might be possible for a shuffle machine to stack 10 value cards to the top of the shoe, (or at least the decks).
They do give you a cut card, and allow you to cut the cards before they are placed in the shoe, don't they? If you cut at a different point, you could bring the high cards to the front or put them behind the cut card. If consistently cutting in one spot seems to be producing bad shoes, cut them in a radically different spot.
Re: Can a shoe be top loaded with tens and aces?
Posted by Shaggy18VW on 15-Dec-2003 18:02:31 (#5793)
Good points,
A side note. I don't think a casino would "top load" tens and aces to fight back against counters. This idea once figured out would kill the casinos. Players would simply bet big off the top. Also ploppys who flat bet would be playing with a potential advantage. If a casino really wants to rip off counters, they would "bottom load" tens and aces. This would make the counter think the shoe was ready to pop, an never get there. But even then, once figured out, the player could cut those to the top.
Re: Can a shoe be top loaded with tens and aces?
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 15-Dec-2003 20:25:40 (#5799)
You are going to see slightly more negative shoes than positive ones, and the negative counts are going to be slightly further from zero than the positive counts. How could it be any other way??
Abraham, please tell what it is that leads you to believe the above statement is true.
Iv'e played a lot of 6D at Indian casinos. I seem to have the same thing happen to me so often as has Victoria with the Stuffer Master or the Random Erection Machine (sorry but that's what my friend and I call them). I have noticed that it mostly happens when other players cut the cards. They usually cut a 6 pack somewhere between 25% and 45% in from the front. When I cut, it's either about 46 - 54 cards in or about 1 deck off the back. It seems to put the bad cards in the front portion of the pack more often. It's so rare to find a count go as high on the + side as happens on the - side. I have also seen a lot of non-skew counts that stay near 0.
I am so tired of grinding with the South Polar Bears for hours before a decent shoe shows up.
Stealth
Re: Can a shoe be top loaded with tens and aces?
Posted by Victoria on 15-Dec-2003 20:43:38 (#5800)
Gee, I also generally cut towards the front. Glad someone else shares my paranoia, will cut towards the back next time but it may be my last time at that place.
Re: Can a shoe be top loaded with tens and aces?
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 15-Dec-2003 22:07:02 (#5801)
Victoria, I think the Chumpish Indian Casino got a little worried that we were all going to storm the place soon after the Mayor got 86'ed. My posts alone probably scared them half to death. That my have to do with why the pen went in the dumper. Sorry about that.
I do hate Indian Casinos. They have the next closest thing to a license to kill without having to be accountable. They are above the law of which the general public is normally accustomed to. What would happen if an Indian casino roof somehow got inundated with rainwater and feel in and injured and killed scores of people due to faulty construction or maintenance? Who would they sue for damages?????????
Stealth
Re: Can a shoe be top loaded with tens and aces?
Posted by Guy777 on 16-Dec-2003 05:41:43 (#5806)
Not sure about the bit about getting slightly more negative counts than positive. The underlying house edge (at a count of 0) has to do with the rules of the game not the distribution of the deck.
So unless they are fiddling with the deck which sounds unlikely because you're expericing hi negative counts, which means more 10's (which would reduce the edge for the house and might give a level better playing BS and advantage).
This all sounds like the God of Standard Deviation playing tricks with your mind!
Guy :-)
PS if you're really sure that the tens are stacked to the top, bet more at the beging of the shoe!
Re: Can a shoe be top loaded with tens and aces?
Posted by wong out on 15-Dec-2003 19:22:17 (#5795)
First of all I would not play in a 66% game with straight counting; with a few possible exceptions (reasons) where I might play.
I think that your post was meant to inquire as to whether the chumpash was doing something or fixing the shuffle to end up with an excess negative count shoe distribution. I would be 99.99% certain that this is not the case, but I wish the hell it were! The casino would be giving up an edge if they dealt a disproportionate number of high cards. Then again most casino managers are dumb enough about their games to fix them improperly. Who knows but I would bet that your observations were the result of: A) an over-active imagination; B) possibly a rare side of the count distribution curve, and or C) a negative distribution combined with a bad shuffle and a bunch of lucky cuts; and, or D) who knows??
In any event - Vegas is close to Chumpash Country so you should consider more trips to Sin City. Weekend trips are great (specially on big weekends) since you can blend in quite well with little to no cover and then disappear.
good luck!
wong out
BTW
Posted by wong out on 15-Dec-2003 19:40:42 (#5797)
BTW -
I noted that the last sentence of the original post stated something about a vegas dealer who gave 90% pen. If you dont mind I would like to visit this dealer on my next trip to Vegas Town and would appreciate any info that you want to share. You can e-mail to wongout@hotmail.com if you dont want to post info on here. If you dont want to share info on the dealer I understand.
In any event.. thanks!
wong out
Did not think about the cut
Posted by Victoria on 15-Dec-2003 20:15:11 (#5798)
My best guess since the shoes were cut everywhere was that it was just one of those frustrating things. You know, trying to get a positive shoe and just not. A load of wonging out and no wonging in.
Weekend trips to Vegas are rough because of family and job.
As far as the response that said there should be slightly more negative shoes, since I use high low, over a long period they should balance out, or am I missing something.
More Negative Shoes: The Answer.
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 16-Dec-2003 00:18:13 (#5804)
A positive count represents a Player Advantage.
A negative count represents a House Advantage.
The House has the edge. If you flat bet and play BS, you lose.
Where does this advantage come from?
Obviously, you must play more hands with a House Advantage than you play with a Player Advantage. Therefore, there must be more negative count (House Advantage) hands then there are Positive Count (Player Advantage) hands. If it were the other way around, then the player would have the advantage.
If the number of negative count hands were equal to the number of positive count hands, then BJ would be an even money game and probably wouldn't be offered.
Check the count frequency tables in the Appendix to "Professional Blackjack" by Stanford Wong. (If you play HiLo, you should have this book!) You will see negative counts occur slightly more often, and large negative counts occur slightly more frequently than equally large positive counts. This slight negative shift in the frequency curve is the house advantage.
House advantage is in the rules of the game
Posted by Victoria on 16-Dec-2003 11:01:34 (#5808)
Abraham
I have Mr Wong's book and this is a minor point that I disagree with. Perhaps I have little right to disagree with a true expert but my thinking is that the shoe is made up of an equal number of positive and negative cards. Accepting that almost anything can happen short run, these numbers mean to me that long run there should be an equal number of positive and negative shoes.
As far as the house advantage goes, this is where we really do not see eye to eye. The house advantage is built into the rules of blackjack. It varies by rules of course but there is one rule that gives the house a huge advantage and most other rules are designed to cut into that advantage and make the game playable.
The biggest rule in blackjack is that when the player busts he looses even if the dealer busts. Because of that rule giving the house an unbelievable advantage the game has evolved to give the player double downs, splits, doubling after split rules to cut into the orginal house edge and make the game playable.
If every shoe ran a 0 count, the perfect BS player would have the disadvantage of what we refer to as the house edge. Is not the house edge based upon a perfect BS play and a neutral count. As the count changes the BS player does nothing, no bet increases, and no indices to take advantage of the situation, so if he gains in a favorable count it is minimized. In a negative count he perhaps looses more because he fails to wong out.
Re: House advantage is in the rules of the game
Posted by Seeker on 16-Dec-2003 12:39:54 (#5810)
With regard to house advantage, Victoria is right that it doesn't depend on an excess of negative counts. Consider a blackjack game not played with physical cards, but with a computer randomly selecting each card to be dealt, with each of the 52 cards having an equal chance to be selected regardless of what's already been dealt. This is infinite-deck blackjack. In any balanced system, the true count would be constantly at zero, in the sense that, at each juncture, the next card is just as likely to be high as to be low. Nevertheless, the house advantage at infinite-deck blackjack is actually greater, for a given set of rules, than with the same rules at one, two, four, six or eight decks.
On the other hand, it's not the case that a player using a balanced count can expect to see a plus count precisely as often as a minus one. The reason is the cut-card effect. In some shoes, by chance, the count will go plus. The preponderance of low cards means that the players and the dealer will have to take more hits, so there are fewer rounds before the shuffle. On the other hand, if the tens come out early, then the dealer will deal more rounds (with the count negative) before reaching the cut card. If you weight each round equally, then the average count, even using a balanced system, is slightly negative.
This cut-card effect adds slightly to the house advantage. It's much less important than the advantage conferred by the combination of rules and number of decks in play, however.
The cut-card effect arises if the shuffle occurs when a predetermined number of cards have been dealt. If, instead, the shuffle occurs when a predetermined number of hands or rounds have been dealt, then there is no cut-card effect.
Re: More Negative Shoes: The Answer.
Posted by Shaggy18VW on 16-Dec-2003 14:18:00 (#5812)
With a balanced count the player WILL see an equal number of + to - counts (in the long run obviously). That's why it is balanced. The thing to make note of is the player doesn't gain an advantage in 6D until a TC of about +2. That is why the house beats the BS player. The BS player will bet equally in the -5 as he does in the +5. This doesn't mean they cancel each other out, because that -5 is a much lower expectation than the +5 is positive (absolute value).
I don't have PBJ in front of me, but I don't believe that Wong states that a -2 will occur more often than a +2 (or something similar)
Some brief theoretical observations
Posted by alienated on 16-Dec-2003 05:29:56 (#5805)
1. If the player's cut must be at least one deck from either end, the bottom deck will always be cut into play in a 5/6 or 7/8 game.
2. With shallower penetration, the probability of the bottom deck being cut into play is still higher than the average probability for all decks.
3. To stack a shoe in the casino's favor, an excess of small cards can be shuffled into the bottom deck.
4. While it is not in the interests of the casino to stack an excess of tens and aces into the played part of the shoe, it is usually in the interests of the casino to have the high cards come out first for any given 'finishing count' (i.e. running count at shuffle point).
5. For any given finishing count, it is possible to manipulate the way in which this finishing count is reached. Take, for instance, a finishing running count of +10. This end point might be reached by the running count rising fairly constantly from 0 to +10 over the course of the shoe. Or the running count might rise to +20 then fall back towards +10. Or the running count might go negative initially before rising steeply over the remainder of the shoe. And any number of other scenarios are also possible.
6. Each unique running-count path potentially provides a different sequence of situations to the player, and some sequences are more beneficial than others.
7. Under the assumption of a 'random' shuffle, each of the potential running-count 'paths' will have an associated probability of occurrence.
8. With a non-random shuffle, the probabilities of each of these running-count paths can be manipulated by causing excess big cards to end up in certain areas of the shoe and/or excess small cards to end up in other areas of the shoe.
9. The potential for a human shuffle to manipulate a shoe's running-count path is limited, to a great extent, by the memory and proficiency of the dealer, and by the fact that the dealer's shuffle actions are visible to the observant player (eg, shuffle tracker).
10. The potential for a machine shuffle to manipulate a shoe's running-count path is, in principle, pretty much unlimited.
11. Sometimes advantage players are inclined to scoff at the regular gambler who shies away from games with machine shuffles on the grounds that they cannot see what is going on inside the machines. Such regular gamblers may have a point.
Re: Some brief theoretical observations
Posted by Victoria on 16-Dec-2003 11:50:35 (#5809)
Alienated
Thanks, does make sense to me. I always thought the demon was in the shoe but maybe it is in the machine.
Re: Can a shoe be top loaded with tens and aces?
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 18-Dec-2003 09:39:54 (#5831)
You should keep track of this and calculate HOW MANY A and 10's they have REMOVED from the decks at the Chumy then report them to local authorities. They may catch them red handed with short decks.
Re: Can a shoe be top loaded with tens and aces?
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 18-Dec-2003 10:24:46 (#5834)
Who's supposed to be watching the Indian casinos anyway? If somebody is watching, I think it's like the fox who watches over the chicken coupe. Or maybe they're all in bed together.
ask to see the burn cards,since you gals get away with all *NM*
Posted by eyes for 21 on 18-Dec-2003 11:55:50 (#5838)
We get away with some because;
Posted by Victoria on 19-Dec-2003 15:59:16 (#5863)
well you guys discount us as perhaps not mathematical or smart enough to count.
Because some guy probably made the average profile of an advantage player and the first thing listed is male.
Male pit critters want to flirt with us.
Ploppy's tend to want to bet more money to impress us and the pit likes this.
But because we are smart, we never ask what the burn card is but do know a few dealers who flash it on its way to the discard tray. We are paying attention.
Seriously, from what I have experienced and what I have read on boards like this, women do have an advantage in cover, so why not use it.
Beware of the female pit boss!!!
Victoria
No one
Posted by Victoria on 18-Dec-2003 12:22:49 (#5840)
Stealth
No body is watching these casinos in my opinion but that does not mean they are all like the Chumash. You can give the Nevada gaming commission some credit but when it comes right down to it, I give just as much credit to the fact that every casino in Vegas is in competetion with the other casinos. If I was a problem type gambler and in Vegas was in a place that had procedures that made be distrustful, I would just go next door. I understand that the procedures are much better at Indian Casinos in areas of California where there are other casinos nearby. They have to compete for the same customer.
Indications of cheating
Posted by Seeker on 18-Dec-2003 11:49:05 (#5837)
Rob McGarvey wrote:
"You should keep track of this and calculate HOW MANY A and 10's they have REMOVED from the decks at the Chumy then report them to local authorities. They may catch them red handed with short decks."
Casinos sometimes cheat by removing some of the high cards from a shoe. In these situations, there'll be an excess of positive counts, but few negative counts. Counters, seeing a positive count, will up their bets in expectation of high cards coming, but the high cards usually won't come. Most shoes will end with a high running count.
Victoria's report was the opposite: that there was an excess of negative counts. Among the possible explanations are:
(1) Casino personnel have a way of steering high cards toward the top and/or cutting out low cards, thus discouraging the occasional counter from betting big but at the expense of giving all the players an off-the-top advantage. I don't know which is more unlikely, that they could do this or that they would if they could.
(2) Some dimwitted and dishonest floorperson, knowing that the 5 and the 6 are the weakest dealer upcards, and hoping to deprive the players of lucrative double-down opportunities in those situations, shorted the deck by removing several 5's and 6's. This form of cheating would greatly benefit all the players. If you find it going on, please don't report it to any authority. Just email me with the details and I'll handle it.
(3) It was just fluctuation, possibly combined with selective memory. This explanation is the one I'd back.
flucuation but
Posted by Victoria on 18-Dec-2003 15:36:44 (#5845)
Seeker
I am going with flucuation, at least till my next visit, if there is a next visit. If they want to remove some 5's and 6's it will be handled without letting you know, sorry. The thing is though the shoes began negative but would nearly go to 0 by the end of the average one that I played. Maybe, if this is what is really happening, you bet big the first couple of rounds and wong out.
Re: Indications of cheating
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 18-Dec-2003 20:04:48 (#5851)
I could have read the post wrong. I have played shorted decks, and thanks to an understanding about being cheated this way from Uston's and Humble's books, knew when to pitch. Yes, study is in order. If for the most part the are sending the Aces and Faces at you in the first hand so you will not have a count going, by all means change to take advantage of this. Make 100% sure this is not just something you think you see without keeping records of it.
next time
Posted by Victoria on 19-Dec-2003 10:54:24 (#5859)
Rob
If I return there and the same thing is happening, I will blindly begin a few shoes with a big bet and adjust from there as an experiement. Then wong out after a few rounds of big cards. Should be an interesting experience but perhaps not profitable. Don't think you can formulate a mathematical system for this though.
go inland to saboba.ie.s17 too *NM*
Posted by eyes for 21 on 19-Dec-2003 11:25:11 (#5861)
where is saboba.
Posted by Victoria on 23-Dec-2003 10:52:50 (#5883)
S17 sounds good. Do they have a DD game also?
saboba.-near riverside.
Posted by eyes for 21 on 23-Dec-2003 18:48:28 (#5886)
Yes they have dbl deck too.
And yes you can count all the tens and aces
without playing at the commis just keep watch and keep track,
sometimes it is very rough it sure feels like cheating,
we all understand.
try this one....small decent place never crowded,even weekends.
Perhaps a 2 day trip
Posted by Victoria on 24-Dec-2003 12:38:30 (#5893)
Thanks; its about 160 miles from me and if you did not have to get to the airport early these days, I could get to Vegas about as fast but perhaps during a slow work period or a weekend I might do two days there and check it out.
Victoria
Re: next time
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 19-Dec-2003 15:02:24 (#5862)
With enough data you could. If you had someone that could get you the tape of all of the tables and see that on average the TC is +2 off the top then you could begin every shoe that way.
Re: next time
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 19-Dec-2003 20:12:11 (#5864)
Before we all start running to the Chunkmash casino and start betting chunks of money off the top, we better know pretty well what's putting the good cards at the top or if it's just pure happenstance. Even if the machine shufflers are selectively placing the cards, the variation of the cut should nullify that issue. That is unless most of the people are cutting in the same location of the pack. The only other problem is; that the machines could potentially place all the big cards so they would be spaced throughout the pack, thus not letting the C have much of a skew - or +.
c-has no problem
Posted by eyes for 21 on 19-Dec-2003 21:57:38 (#5866)
The chumash has no problem and the Mayor has played
there and won for years.
So I doubt cheating,but you can always call the gaming commis
to help,but they usually do nothing.
You can literally count all the tens and faces from start to finish
and see and you must see the burn cards too.
Re: c-has no problem
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 22-Dec-2003 21:39:30 (#5878)
So I doubt cheating,but you can always call the gaming commis
to help,but they usually do nothing.
What Gaming Commission? I thought whom ever is watching the Indian Casinos, is in cahoots with them.
You can literally count all the tens and faces from start to finish
and see and you must see the burn cards too.
Impossible. The only time anyone ever gets to see if all the cards are there is if and when they spread them out deck by deck before the play of new cards commences. Or when they are done with the used cards and the PC checks and arranges them back into the order.
Stealth
spread?? What spread
Posted by Victoria on 23-Dec-2003 10:49:51 (#5882)
I am not going to count down all the 10's and aces but as was said the only time you can do this is when they spread the cards and they never spread the cards.
I think it was just a day of negative counts but with no competition and their tables basically busy, they seem to have no need for this basic spreading procedure. The pit just puts a new six deck stack into the machine and that is a change of decks. They might not be cheating but this lack of procedure tells me they can if they want to.
If they were shorting 10's and aces
Posted by Victoria on 18-Dec-2003 12:09:28 (#5839)
Rob
If they were shorting the shoes tens and aces, would my problem then be getting very positive counts, putting max bets out and watching a bunch of 2-9's hit the felt? That does not seem to be what is happening but in this place they could easily do this.
I have never seen a spread of cards. I have seen a card change and it does not lead to player confidence like card changes in Vegas. What happens is a critter brings out 6 decks (perhaps short a few cards) wraped in a rubber band, removes the band and places the cards in the shuffling demon, done. They did this once, a few months ago, just after I had one of those groups of hands we dream about, great counts, big beats, landed up getting splits, doubling on splits and the dealer kept getting stiffs and busting. They put the new cards in play and I played one hand and decided that the feeling in my stomach was saying, time for a break. I have been told that most other Indian Casino's have vegas like procedures for card changes, so why not this place?
Anyway, they apparently can do just about anything they want and I plan to go one more time and if it is the same, I will not return. That may be what they want anyway.
Danger!
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 18-Dec-2003 12:38:40 (#5841)
The Procedure of spreading out all the cards, checking BOTH sides of the cards, counting them, and making sure they are all there is done for a reason.
It protects the Casino as well as the Player.
Prevents someone from slipping in marked cards, shorting decks (in the casino or cheating players favor), etc. Maybe you are seeing 10 rich decks. The Pit, Dealer, and other players could be working together milking the game for profit, right under the casinos nose.
Violation of this card handling procedure would send up red flags for me also.
Blackjack Science Seminar Series *LINK*
Posted by NewToTheGame on 15-Dec-2003 18:41:46 (#5794)
Can anyone offer advice on whether this seminar series is worth the cash outlay. It is being taught by the former president of one of the MIT teams, and delves into a number of techniques they used to beat the casinos.
I have been card counting for about a year, and am trying to get on a team in the northeast. If anyone can offer advice, I would appreciate it.
-NewToTheGame
Re: Blackjack Science Seminar Series
Posted by SammyBoy on 16-Dec-2003 10:13:12 (#5807)
It seems very expensive to me. Depending on your bankroll and average bet it may (or may not) pay for itself in a short period of time. At my level of play it would not be worth it, IMO.
Re: Blackjack Science Seminar Series
Posted by Learning to count on 17-Dec-2003 10:47:09 (#5816)
I agree overpriced and worthless. You can buy all of Wongs books for a lot less used or new and get more info. Remember the MIT team were playing at high sky level of play. They were all hi IQ math/engineering types who had a unlimited resources intellectually and monetarily. $800 is a lot of money. I do not expect you will learn how to play like they did even for $800. This is an ad! Ad trollers at their worst. This happens all the time on the free sites. This should be busted.
$800
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 18-Dec-2003 09:36:17 (#5830)
You are paying a seminar company to listen to a talk. Opps! The Doc couldn't make it, but his skilled U students (the same people that put this site up perhaps?) will train you. Once they have BRAIN WASHED you with the glamor angle of team play, you can then open your wallet to give another $1,200 to learn what you can learn at home on your own. No doubt they will find you SO successful they will offer you a spot on the MIT team!!
GRIFTER SCAM ALERT CODE RED!!!!
Question about Royal Match on 6D
Posted by DoctorJames on 15-Dec-2003 23:12:01 (#5802)
I have spent the last month or so reading and re-reading the Wong trilogy (Basic Bj, Pro Bj, and Bj Secrets =P )I ran into a paragraph in one book that was repeated in another that said Royal Match bet in a Six Deck game with 2 to 1 Suited and 3 to 1 Royal was a good bet. My local Card Room (15 house edge tables allowed) has royal match on 2 or 3 Bj tables. I always stayed away from it until now. I cashed in with 40 to play 20 on 2 dollar flat bet BS and 20 for Royal Match as an experiment. Played for 4 hours, ended up loosing 26 dollars total. I calculated that over the course of my session I won 80 dollars playing the royal match bet. The 16 dollars I walked out with was all 50 cent pieces from Royal Match. Here is the kicker. suited pays 2.5 to 1, suited natural pay 5 to 1 and Royal Match pays 25 to 1, So it seems to have better payouts than the bet described by Mr. Wong. I was wondering if anyone knows or has the means to calculate the Advantage of this bet with the payouts I mentioned ? If I remember Wongs numbers correctly these payouts would make it very player friendly.
I got my first bit of heat too. Last week I was playing at 4 in the morning, the shuffle machine was not operating so they were hand shuffling... so I couldnt play as many rounds as I would have liked. But anyway, I was spreading 1 to 4, I sat out at grossly negative counts. Anyway the dealer points to my hand which is A,6 and his up card is a 6. I act like I am thinking about what to do. I double my bet and signal for one card, He pulls it out of the shoe sees it is a 4 and holds it up and calls the pit ! Tells the boss He exposed the card to me prior to my decision, and she tells him to burn it and to give me a new card. It was a shit card, and the dealer beat my total by one. Rest of the morning, all three bosses did nothing but watch me. So I did a 1:2 spread and smiled alot. =) Ended up being down 40 dollars for the night, the same total that I lost on that burned card hand.
I have a bit of a problem keeping the RC, I try to be involved at the table, social and fun to be around and it gets hard to remember the number, anyone have a trick they use to remember ? I figure that my "heat" was because the pit actually believed I spotted the card and not because I am an aspiring counter, but it was fun. (and frustrating)
Re: Question about Royal Match on 6D
Posted by Learning to count on 17-Dec-2003 10:41:33 (#5815)
James Grossjean has the answer in Beyond counting. He also gives a side count to play this game. The game is tuff though with a small advantage. Actually its not worth the trouble. There are better oppurtunities elseware. If you need to play side bet games check out lucky ladies there is a lot written on that bet. The advanatage is slightly better than royal match.
Re: Question about Royal Match on 6D
Posted by DoctorJames on 17-Dec-2003 22:25:03 (#5821)
Thanks for the response LTC. I keep forgetting to bring the Wong book that has the exact number for Royal Match 6D with me when I use this computer. But I am fairly confident that the bet Wong described had a top payoff of 3:1 and he said it thus had a slight advantage as you said, even without any type of count. What I would be interested to know is precisely what the advantage is with the payoffs at this particular casino and actually to know if that payoff system is rare. The payoffs being 2.5:1 on first two cards suited, 5:1 suited natural, and 25:1 suited queen king. There maybe be an additional payoff if your queen king is also suited with a face shown by the dealers up card. That is so rare though I am not interested. Wether it is worth my time or not I would think would be determined by the exact advantage. If it is greater than .78 percent (flat betting), then it would make my local game an even game. Of coarse any greater and it would be an advantage without having to count anything. To compensate for the -.78 BS expectation, suck ass pen. and a dampered means of wonging, I will take what I can get. I know I am asking alot for someone to crunch the numbers for this but I am not well versed in Statisical formulas. I do not want to make bad bets either and could use all the help I can get. My guess is that like Video Poker this bet will have a high variance (if that is the right word), but many people swear Video Poker is more beatable than (modern) Blackjack. So with some raw numbers I think I could calculate the optimum bet. My thought is that it will be the max bet, which is 25 $ for that bet, and to minimum bet Bj and play BS. I could then have a friend count, and wong in and out as much as we could get away with at the hole in the wall we play at (WA card rooms only have 15 tables total). Might make for a good cover... Two (appearently) compulsive gamblers, One who bets big on a rare payoff and another who occassionaly throws out a green chip until he looses a hand (when the count goes back down).
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