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Shuffle-Tracking for Dummies.
Posted by phantom007 on 31-Oct-2002 04:01:16 (#381)
Been away for several days...trying to catch up. Tonight, I read one of ZG's posts, that seemed to be, with some work, within my reach. And now I cannot find it.
Anyhow, he suggested that in a 6D game, with shuffle at approx. 1.5D remaining, that, IF the RC was +15 at shuffle, then the unplayed 1.5D could be cut into "the pack" to be played next, thus starting out with a Positive count.
For example (I think), with a single-level, balanced counting system, this "plug" would have a surplus of #10-10 value cards. When infiltrated into the "to be played" portion of the next pack, then the Count would be +2.2 m/l to start...TC that is, for the "to be played" portion of the pack.
Therefore:
1. Am I on the right track?
2. Is the converse also true, i.e., if the Count was "minus 15", would one try to cut this "small-card-rich" plug out of play? And keep the same advantage?
3. How does one cut a "plug" of cards into or out of play? And track it to the cut?
4. Would ZG and/or others please post an expanded version of this play method?
Thanks,
phantom007.
Re: Shuffle-Tracking for Dummies.
Posted by zengrifter on 31-Oct-2002 04:32:11 (#382)
The COT 101 describes a 1st-generation STtechq that is obsolete for MOST casino shuffles... BUT if you know what to look for there are some 6-8D games that can be tackled this way. COT is also a 1st-step towards grasping ST basics.
Yes, you apear to have done the conversion approx-correct as the endingRC (ERC)
must be diluted with the approx value of the dilution mixed into it, and then TCadjusted for the 3Ds in the example.
Yes, the ERC can be +or- and yet be converted to a +IRC by controlling the cutcard, and when the ERC/IRC is 0, there is still that GREAT "virtual penetration" of 95%.
As for controlling the cutcard, I rarely over even many hours give-up the card - and because I'm cutting the good cards into play the results tend to work better for everyone at the table and they get behind my official-status as the table cutter, which I perform not unlike a psychic scan and then a quick precision slice into the choosen section and several players in unison huff "YES!" to my "ahh-tchaa!" Controlling the cutcard and/or the placement of the cut is a minor but necessary additional skill. zg
PISSING CONTEST.
Posted by phantom007 on 31-Oct-2002 10:52:07 (#392)
Please move this PISSING CONTEST to the "Non-BJ Board"...so that everyone else can get back to answering and/or making fun of my stupid posts and questions.
Happy Halloween!
phantom007.
P.S.: Why do ghosts have low sperm counts? They have hallow-weenies!
Re: PISSING CONTEST?
Posted by zengrifter on 31-Oct-2002 11:12:16 (#394)
In a pissing contest OCKO is an unarmed man and I hold the heavy artillery, to paraphrase G.Gordon Liddy. zg
YOURS IS SUPERIOR!
Posted by phantom007 on 31-Oct-2002 12:14:59 (#399)
I have no problem with that. Allegations have been made, that if supported by fact, are certainly serious. Conversely, claims have been made, that if true, imply that one can make $500k/yr. playing BJ. Certainly this is possible...in the last 6 months, I have WON about $1,207,000.00 playing our sacred game. Unfortunately, I have LOST about $1,214,000.00 during the same time frame.
As Cartman of Southpark would say: "Whatev-ah, whatev-ah, I do what I want, whatev-ah, you must respect my Authori-tah!"
As regarding computers and BJ sites, I am almost a virgin. I first stumbled into CC-Cafe, then ran out...nothing but a big ego pissing contest. I then stumbled into this site. Just a few posts. Almost immediate attention to my often stupid questions/posts. I like it HERE. I am smarter than I write.
OUR MAYOR established this Site for Research, Science, and Education, and as recently amended, an open forum of Communication that is Social and/or Constructive, and as regarding our game of BJ.
YOURS IS CERTAINLY SUPERIOR TO MINE, AND POSSIBLY TO THAT OF OTHERS!
I ask that both you, ZG, and OCKO, move your personal battles to the Non-BJ page, leaving this site for us "STUDENTS".
Reading between the lines, it would appear to me that OCKO thinks that you, ZG, screwed him out of a few thousand $. True? False? I do not care.
In the business world, AMATEUR LEVEL CHUMP CHANGE!
Please move it off this site, respect the Mayor's "Authori-tah", and do what you want..."whatev-ah".
APOLOGY to OCKO & ZG
Posted by phantom007 on 01-Nov-2002 22:14:33 (#452)
I apologize sincerely for recent posts accusing you of "unprofessional conduct". More recent posts suggest this is the work of the LVHCM.
Sorry if I sound like a damn bleeding-heart liberal, but "I am so happy that we are really all getting along!"
Now, back to my stupid posts and questions....
Welcome to the "rabid subculture" of BJ (NM)
Posted by zengrifter on 02-Nov-2002 04:39:59 (#459)
zg,what about betting strategy for ZEn with AO #'s (NM)
Posted by aoko on 31-Oct-2002 11:03:46 (#393)
will you be using...
Posted by zengrifter on 31-Oct-2002 11:37:37 (#398)
... a 1DTC or a 1/2DTC? zg
Re: will you be using...
Posted by aoko on 31-Oct-2002 12:39:50 (#403)
Zg, Since you have suugested me to use 1DK since that's BJFB suggests for
AO11 #'s. I will be using 1DK.
Re: will you be using...
Posted by zengrifter on 31-Oct-2002 13:25:48 (#407)
...how many units of BR? zg
Re: will you be using...
Posted by aoko on 31-Oct-2002 13:32:18 (#408)
I am a red chipper. I have 400 units of BR
Then this has all been a waste of time.
Posted by kansas on 31-Oct-2002 13:36:19 (#409)
The extra power of AOII over any other counting system means you get an extra 5 hands worth of play before you go broke with a 400 unit bank.
we're past that...
Posted by zengrifter on 31-Oct-2002 13:43:48 (#410)
...he's asking about ZEN betting, no more AO2. zg
Cant we all get along?
Posted by Learning to count on 31-Oct-2002 12:38:41 (#402)
Ko-ok or what ever lets talk black jack. Every one mind there own busiwacks and keep the playing info flowing. ZG please suggest a betting scheme for the shoe game that you feel would work.
Re: Cant we all get along?
Posted by learning to count on 31-Oct-2002 13:13:29 (#405)
THANKS ZG. LTC
An idea for OC/LA area bj practice
Posted by darksun on 31-Oct-2002 14:40:16 (#415)
Hey all,
I just built a very spiffy and professional looking blackjack table a few weeks ago. I am looking for some feedback regarding the possibility of doing a bi-monthly blackjack practices, where you can get someone dealing to you in a more real atmosphere without risking real money. Is this doable? What are some advantages and disadvantages?
-eric
software drills are better (NM)
Posted by zengrifter on 31-Oct-2002 14:43:33 (#417)
Re: An idea for OC/LA area bj practice
Posted by Sonny on 31-Oct-2002 18:05:41 (#419)
Right on! I'm building a table myself, but it won't be ready for at least a few weeks. I would love to hang out and "talk shop" with a few locals. Some of the BEST practice I had was as a home dealer. It's HARD to count all the cards as you deal them, calculate each player's hand totals, play your own hand, and figure the proper payouts all while keeping the count in your head. It really focuses your concentration. Once you've done that, playing one spot in a casino is EASY!
Keep us posted on what area you were thinking about doing it. I'm in.
-Sonny-
I'm in OC...
Posted by zengrifter on 31-Oct-2002 19:00:11 (#421)
... and I'll be the dealer. zg
Any REAL Advantage in 8 decks?
Posted by nocountfool on 31-Oct-2002 17:07:57 (#418)
All of the casinos in my playing area use 8 decks. I've been told by several longterm bj player/counters that they don't bother counting the shoe as it yields such a small advantage. As a newbie to counting (but a 30 year "ploppie") whatta you guys think?
Currently I watch the "flow" of cards, and keep an ace count, but I wonder....
Re: Any REAL Advantage in 8 decks?
Posted by zengrifter on 31-Oct-2002 18:58:24 (#420)
For your style of play it matters NOT whether 8D or 1D. Ques - when do you NOT split 99? zg
Re: Any REAL Advantage in 8 decks?
Posted by nocountfool on 31-Oct-2002 21:16:17 (#424)
I'm not sure if thats a rhetorical question. :-)
I don't split 99 against 7,10,A, unless the deck is very rich. (TC=>+3)
Re: Any REAL Advantage in 8 decks?
Posted by zengrifter on 31-Oct-2002 21:31:19 (#426)
ok, i was just testing you on BS, that "watch the flow" talk worried me. 8Ds are about as valuable as any other #decks DEPENDENT on a small matrix of conditions-considerations including rules AND %PENE - with decent rules and decent %pene a 1-10+ spread (WONGING) can be worth your time. zg
Re: Any REAL Advantage in 8 decks?
Posted by V-man on 01-Nov-2002 09:21:22 (#433)
I never split 99 against 10,A period. Regardless of TC.
Re: Any REAL Advantage in 8 decks?
Posted by nocountfool on 07-Nov-2002 17:41:52 (#529)
Your right V-man. I meant I would only split against the 7. I would not split anything against the 10 or A except A,A. Unless surrender is no option, then I'd split 8,8.
I need to start reviewing my posts before I post.
Re: Any REAL Advantage in 8 decks? *LINK*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 07-Nov-2002 22:13:20 (#532)
YES, there can be an advantage. Ever shuffle 8 decks together? You have to shuffle one deck 7 times to make it totally random. The dealer does not have time to shuffle 8 decks 8x7 times. Usually twice is the most you will see, with some fancy hand picks that usually do not make much of a difference. I play 8 deck like I play double deck since deck 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 and 8 get mixed together in half deck batches. I will try to cut the bad decks out of play (if I can) and work the 2 deck area that is rich hard and flat play the other 4 that are better than 0.
There can be an 8 deck advantage, just like there can be a home field disadvantage in sports betting. Often the odds on the home team are way out of whack since everyone knows the home team is more likely to win.
Shuffle tracking
Posted by The Mayor on 08-Nov-2002 08:33:55 (#542)
So, you are saying that trackable shuffles come up with 8 decks more often than with 6? That has not been my experience. But, I don't shuffle track that often.
Re: Shuffle tracking
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 08-Nov-2002 20:23:17 (#567)
"So, you are saying that trackable shuffles come up with 8 decks more often than with 6? That has not been my experience. But, I don't shuffle track that often."
I'm not sure if it is easier than tracking 6 decks for the same reason as you mention, ie I don't get to play 6 deck that often. I find that the casinos in Ontario think that because they use 8 they are protected. In the high stakes area they use 6, but shuffle very carefully. High stakes means a higher min/max bet, but the ploppy tables have high enough maximums to track or sequence and get a big enough bet out to make the trip worth while (1 1/2 hours both ways) and the ploppy tables allow for min bets high enough to create ploppy fear which is perfect for "playing other players hands."
I have found in many cases that the cards I track will be within a two deck area, and that is why I stated that I often play 8 deck like 4 2 deck games. All 4 of these decks will have an average true count assigned to them that will be corrected as we count it down as we go thru them, and re adjusted as we get into them. It is harder to describe than to do. A neg batch is a wong-out or cut out of play.
Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#423)
Suggested Addendum to CC.com's RULES?
Posted by zengrifter on 31-Oct-2002 21:27:24 (#425)
Suggested Addendum to CC.com's RULES and Discussion?
First an excerpt from another albeit commercial site -
bj21 - "Recent events exposed evidence that a rabid subculture was trying to destroy the viability of BJ21.com and compromise security. After ten days of debate and discussion with [the] membership it was decided to streamline the free site for additional security and accountability. This refinement is also meant to encourage a more open community and limit factions taking liberty with sensitive information regarding members."
In the instant case that forum opted for a registration process that suppresses some of what this "rabid subculture", as bj21 refers to it, shenanigans and tomfoolery (which is my self-appointed job, anyway) - witness today's Halloween prank.
More than a prank, actually - the 'strike' was timed with knowledge that The Mayor would be absent for a few and unable to bust inappropiate behavior - and there are pros out there who beleive that a pro like myself should not be sharing my BJwisdom with newbies - instead, they say that I should conserve my pearls for high-priced private-entry forums whose membership includes a hi-concentration of casino mgmt and surviellance staff
I propose an expanded Rules and perhaps a registration process whereby non-registrants can read/lurk, but not post?
And there should perhaps be a back-up moderator for times like now when The Mayor is away for a few.
Of course the above added-security would probably preempt my participation, but then I would NEVER belong to ANY forum that would accept me as a member, anyway! zg
Illustrious 18 for Single Deck?
Posted by SammyBoy on 01-Nov-2002 10:28:35 (#434)
Anyone know where I can get this info? Or is it ok to use the I18 for multideck while playing SD? Thanks in advance.
Yes and yes...
Posted by zengrifter on 02-Nov-2002 04:38:10 (#458)
... you may find the i#s at this site, look around, and you may use the multideck i#s with 1D with NO loss of power. zg
Re: Yes and yes...
Posted by SammyBoy on 04-Nov-2002 14:03:47 (#491)
Thanks ZG.
Pitch Blackjack Question
Posted by SammyBoy on 01-Nov-2002 10:44:43 (#435)
I love playing pitch BJ either double or single deck, as I'm sure most of you do as well. It's occured to me that I could make better decisions if I were able to see the "down" cards of the other players, especially when contemplating insurance. Occasionally the players next to me will show me their cards or I'm able to look at their cards and incorporate them into the count. I've never heard anyone from the pit ever say that players could not look at each others cards. Now to take this one step farther. If I knew 2 or 3 guys that were playing with me at the table we could devise a system where if they have 2 ten point cards they would tuck them immediately, or if it was a pair of two's or simialr hand where the value is +2 they would hold them above the table. You could come up with other signals for either a +1, -1, or 0 hand. Here are my questions:
1. Would this be considered cheating by the casino?
Re: Pitch Blackjack Question
Posted by Biff on 01-Nov-2002 12:24:18 (#439)
I try to see as many cards as possible during the hand. You need to develope a cover for doing this. I use the good old boy cover and start developing as soon as I sit down. I will ask players on both sides of me what they would do with this hand, but of course I do whatever indices tell me to do.
Bottom line is more cards you see the better it is for you.
Biff
Re: Pitch Blackjack Question
Posted by JamesB on 01-Nov-2002 15:20:03 (#445)
Sammy,
Not cheating but is always advantageous as in the more info the better. I agree with Biff that cover is the way to go, 'cause the house will introduce themselves if they find your using the info. Sitting center is best.
Re: Pitch Blackjack Question
Posted by phantom007 on 01-Nov-2002 22:04:22 (#451)
And, as long as you do not do it every hand, and especially when you hold hands that "would require thought" at a ploppy level (DD's, 12's, etc.), just simply ask other players "what ya' got?". This happens so frequently, that I doubt it would get any attention.
Another ploy would be to have a friend sit to your right, and play the "beginner act"...thus it would look natural to look at most of his/her hands, and give advice (and Count the Cards). Best to have your accomplice betting low $, so as to be able to give "bad" advice if PC visiting. I suggest "to the right" of you just so that you can Count both the 2 hole cards plus any applicable draw cards.
Tired of acting? Then just have your friend(s) hold their cards at an angle where you can see them...easily accomplished without looking unnatural. When your friends take a hit, have them show their cards to the Dealer, and of course to you...a common ploppy ploy, show the Dealer what you need to increase the chance of getting it.
Another angle is "Counting by Inference". For example, the Dealer shows a 9 up, and the other players quickly slide their cards under their chips, sigh, smile, then sit back and look at you to hurry up and play out your hand, so that they can get paid...you can "Infer" that most if not all of the unseen cards are 10's, and adjust the Count ONLY for your play of your hand. And, if a player hits, draws a 10, hits again, and draws a 5, then stands, the "Inference" would be that he/she has 2 small cards, and same would be noted in the Count for the play of THAT hand.
Certainly nothing wrong with your proposed system...just seems to me to be adding a complicated layer of distraction in order to obtain data that is usually available by other, and easier, means. If you routinely play with an accomplice, your efforts might be better spent with one of you keeping a "perfect" Insurance Count, and the other, the Regular Count for Bet and Play purposes. Then, only Insure when the Insurance Counter does. Increase/Decrease bets only when the BP Counter does. Then work on your signalling system for Play changes.
I hope this is helpful.
simple answer...
Posted by zengrifter on 02-Nov-2002 04:25:42 (#457)
... its NOT that important to see all the cards before they are turned over... AND it is definetly NOT an effective use of manpower or capital mgmt for two teammates or partners to play 'pure' counting at the same table - no matter what extra gain you get will NOT be superior to the two or more counters playing at seperate tables. zg
Thanks ZG! (NM)
Posted by SammyBoy on 04-Nov-2002 13:05:46 (#489)
Team Hammer
Posted by zengrifter on 02-Nov-2002 07:32:20 (#463)
Fleecing Las Vegas; blackjack team
http://ng.csun.edu/e310f98/3assignf98/esquire.htm
BYLINE: Angeli, Michael
Family is everything. I am using these words as a calming mantra to keep the adrenaline from spurting through my eyeballs. It's Super Bowl weekend, I have $ 20,000 snuggled in my jacket pocket, and we're heading toward the casino we've picked to hit. I'm as pumped and alive as a donored heart. Back up in the hotel room, they offered beta-blockers, but I wanted to feel the danger-rush come at full strength.
"That's good, that's his lizard-brain telling him how to survive," Rob Reitzen, the team leader, informed the others when I refused the pills. Someone else countered that fear causes mistakes, and they all formed this little quorum on dendrites and brain synapses while I tried to remember what was said about being followed.
Family is everything.
A couple of weeks ago, I wouldn't have believed a word any of diem said.
I first heard about Rob Reitzen through J. B., a buddy of mine who works for Emilio Estevez and is to bullshitting what Secretariat was to horse racing. "Dude, I met this incredible guy at the Tyson-Holyfield fight," J. B. said. "He wears these awful flannel shirts, but he's got this killer black-jack system called the Hammer, and I swear I saw him win a hundred grand! You gotta meet him!" Hammer. Hundred grand. And down the stretch they come.
complete story -
Recap on Hammer Article please
Posted by Ethan on 02-Nov-2002 18:33:39 (#464)
Excuse me, but will someone provide a recap on the 6,000-word Hammer Article please? I'm lost as I waved thru the article. What the hell were they talking about, i.e., when, where, how, what, why, who, how many, & how much? Thanks in advance.
Re: Recap on Hammer Article please
Posted by phantom007 on 02-Nov-2002 20:16:54 (#466)
For what it is worth, as a "semi-pro" (probably 2 cents), my take on this article is as follows:
"It takes $ to make $."
Or in other words, a well funded Team, with an out-of-work, but never-the-less, highly-recognized celebrity "shill", took LV for $1M, one Super Bowl weekend. An outsider, likely a nurse or physician (due to most all analogies being medically related), was invited along to report on same activity, and was given a brief "low-budget" taste of the action.
For me, the whole story gave me a "BB" (Bankroll Boner) with the first read...a $70,000. buy-in and a $502,000. pay-off. But with further recollection to my Ploppy days, I realized that this is not quite so big a deal...many times have I turned a $1,000. buy-in into $10,000...and as a ploppy, then turned the $10,000. into a "comp'd buffet". The big difference is that this group "kept their profits" and then had "lobster, crab, and good booze" brought to their rooms.
As I personally move into the realm of Advantage play, I have found that I:
-Lose much more often.
-But I do usually lose less than "before", usually much less.
-Win much less when I do win.
I will not otherwise attempt to answer your "when, where, how..." questions...re-read the article another time or two...
Res Ipsa Loquitor.
"The Thing Speaks for Itself".
Re: Team Hammer
Posted by The Mayor on 03-Nov-2002 23:47:50 (#479)
This is an incredible and TRUE story of a weekend beating a shuffle that could be sequenced at a major strip casino to the tune of 1/2 Million. One of the team members lives here in Santa Barbara, and teaches BJ. I have met one of his students who filled me in on some details, but he has not contacted me directly (yet).
--Mayor
New Pi Yee Press office in LV
Posted by The Mayor on 03-Nov-2002 20:14:37 (#478)
I surprised myself.
I was driving west from the Palms after playing some of their juicy 6D, thinking I would take the back roads to the MGM, and the first major street I hit was Decatur. I had this vague memory that Decatur had something to do with the new Pi Yee Press office in Las Vegas, but had no idea what the cross street was. I turned left off of Flamingo and was just starting to think about the street, when I passed Nevso drive on the left. That sounded familiar. I drove down Nevso quickly, then slowly back the full 2 blocks of Nevso, looking in every little business enclave until I found it, tucked in the back, just 2 enclaves down from Decatur on the right. My wife calls this "Zen" driving, getting someplace that I didn't even know I wanted to go.
When I showed up I was immediately and very warmly greated, and given a quick tour. I am very impressed with the site, its cleanliness, and the possibilities for growth the site permits. Mostly, I just liked meeting folks 8-)
Here is their address:
Pi Yee Press
4855 W. Nevso Dr.
Las Vegas, NV 89103
Re: New Pi Yee Press office in LV
Posted by Al Rogers on 04-Nov-2002 18:16:02 (#494)
Thanks, Mayor. It was great to see you.
Our office and store is normally open from 9 am until 5 PM, Monday through Friday, and we're always happy to greet visitors.
DIRECTIONS TO PI YEE PRESS LAS VEGAS OFFICE
4855 West Nevso Drive; Las Vegas, NV 89103
(702) 579-7711
FROM THE PALMS OR THE GOLD COAST:
Go west on Flamingo Road (away from the Strip).
The first cross street immediately to the west of the Palms is Arville Street. Turn left (southbound) onto Arville Street. Go one block to Nevso Drive. Turn right (westbound) onto Nevso Drive. The office is slightly less than a half-mile down. After the stop sign for Cameron Street, our entrance is the fifth driveway on the left (south) side of Nevso. The office is located next to Don Best Sports.
If you reach the stop sign at Decatur Blvd., you've gone too far.
FROM THE ORLEANS:
Go west on Tropicana Avenue (away from the Strip).
The first cross street immediately to the west of the Orleans is Cameron Street. Turn right (northbound) onto Cameron Street. Go nine-tenths of a mile on Cameron Street, to Nevso Drive. There are no stop signs or signals on Cameron all the way from Tropicana to Nevso. If you reach the stop sign at Flamingo Road, you've gone too far
Turn left (westbound) onto Nevso Drive. Our entrance is the fifth driveway on the left (south) side of Nevso. The office is located next to Don Best Sports.
If you reach the stop sign at Decatur Blvd., you've gone too far.
-- Al Rogers
Pi Yee Press
Small security step
ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by The Mayor on 04-Nov-2002 09:10:30 (#487)
Dear group,
In order to post here from now on, you must register your handle and provide a valid email address. A password will then be issued to you.
Your email address will be kept strictly confidential, but this email address, together with the IP and other information I keep about each post, will allow me to positively and immediately identify malicious posters to this site.
Thank you so much for your understanding,
Best regards,
--Mayor
Re: Small security step
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 04-Nov-2002 09:37:09 (#488)
Hi Mayor. I admire your work here. Keep up the great work and best of luck with the boards and this site!
Rob
MAYORS TRIP
Posted by hammer on 04-Nov-2002 23:11:26 (#496)
ANY exciting stories for us regarding your Vegas trip/
trip reflections
Posted by The Mayor on 05-Nov-2002 08:55:40 (#498)
By far the most exciting part was meeting other players. That entailed a nice dinner on the last night with two others, and stopping by the pi yee press office.
As far as the games, I am addicted to deep 6D with LSR. Wonging these shoes gives a very low variance game with a high EV (translate: not many swings, decent earnings). I spent the days going between the 4 or 5 good games in town, trying to go during different shifts each day.
I was thrown out of one place -- the El Cortez, again. I flat bet 1 unit for about 20 minutes, the deck got to juicy to resist and I bet 6 units and got a BJ. The boss came over and said: "that's your last hand."
I had other meetings that were more on the consulting end, as well, so it was not entirely a trip for pleasure.
I ended up winning 133 units in 20 hours of total play.
Take care,
--Mayor
It's been bugging me
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 05-Nov-2002 18:42:40 (#510)
Hello Mayor,
I noticed you went to Vegas the day after Halloween. Was this for cover?
Re: It's been bugging me
Posted by The Mayor on 05-Nov-2002 19:11:04 (#511)
Actually, I went ON halloween. Not for cover at all, it was just how the timing of my obligations in Vegas worked out.
It was my first time there on 10/31, and it was not nearly as wild as state street here in Santa Barbara on the same night. A few groups of tourists planned ahead and dressed up for the night, but most were still intent on losing their money as fast as they possibly could.
I saw one young woman crying in the lobby of the hotel.
--Mayor
Re: trip reflections
Posted by zengrifter on 09-Nov-2002 02:51:04 (#572)
>> As far as the games, I am addicted to deep 6D with LSR. Wonging these shoes gives a very low variance game with a high EV (translate: not many swings, decent earnings)<<
-------------------------
Re: MAYORS TRIP
Posted by SplitFives on 05-Nov-2002 11:39:19 (#499)
Nice guerrilla photojournalism.
A couple of notes on one photo -- several of those folks are known counters:
-The cigar guy in the foreground is about to double a 7 against the dealer's 5.
-The praying woman in the background is using Revere's APC (Advanced Point Count).
For the future, it would be great to have photos of the following:
-Someone tracking aces.
-A shot of the pit boss's foot on impact with the posterior of a player who has just doubled an A-8 against the dealer's 2.
-Photos of casino heat, which would be easy using an infrared digital camera.
And could you leave out the shots of the 6:5 tables -- that's obscene by contemporary community standards.
Wish I knew as much about blackjack as I do about being a smartass.
Re: MAYORS TRIP
Posted by The Mayor on 05-Nov-2002 15:00:46 (#504)
Thanks for your kindness! In your own way, I think you expressed that you liked the photos 8-)
--Mayor
8D DOA DAS
Posted by Count Luckula on 05-Nov-2002 12:10:43 (#500)
I have been studying Hi-Lo along with indices. I would like to know what sort techniques could be used in the following conditions and whether this game is beatable. The condidtions are as follows: 8D, DOA, DAS, Split up to three hands, 80% pen.
Case 1: wong in at +1
wong out at -1
spread 1-10
Case 2: start fresh shoe
wong out at -1
spread 1-10
Another question I have is that I have noticed people talk about spreads that don't correspond directly to the posi-count*unit bet. On the other hand, I have heard people say you should only spread to the count. What is the corrent strategy?
Re: 8D DOA DAS
Posted by The Mayor on 05-Nov-2002 14:57:24 (#502)
The game you describe is a 6.5|8 standard 8 deck game. It is very beatable.
As for your spread, yes, the count*unit formula is not optimal. If the game has LSR, his your max bet at a TC of +4, otherwise put your max bet out at +5. How you get to your max bet is up to you, the real money is made when your max bet is out. Decide your max bet first, and then ramp up to it from your min bet naturally (for cover).
For example, if your max bet is $100, then at +1 put out $10, at +2, $25, at +3 put out $50, at +4 your bet is $75, and at +5 or higher, you bet $100. If you are wonging, then the cover that provides allows a bet of $25 at +1 as well.
But, it is also very important to play 2 hands if possible. In this case spread from $10 to $75 on two hands, ramping naturally.
I know a man who made over 100K on the 8d boat games in 2001.
Good luck,
--Mayor
Heat
Posted by Count Luckula on 05-Nov-2002 12:48:57 (#501)
I was recently at a Casino in Vegas playing a DD game with good rules and about 66% pen. I was spreading 1-5 and had a few consecutive winning sessions all within a couple days. The PC had conversation with a floorman and then told the dealer to slow the game down. I played one more shuffle and left (even though the dealer didn't really slow down but for one hand). Should I be concerned about returning to the casino?
Re: Heat
Posted by The Mayor on 05-Nov-2002 14:59:00 (#503)
>I was recently at a Casino in Vegas playing a DD game with good rules and about 66% pen. I was spreading 1-5 and had a few consecutive winning sessions all within a couple days.
This is already a mistake. There are enough DD games around town that you should be spreading your action between the games.
>The PC had conversation with a floorman and then told the dealer to slow the game down. I played one more shuffle and left (even though the dealer didn't really slow down but for one hand). Should I be concerned about returning to the casino?
Return whenever you like, just don't play too much there. Play "hit and run," 45min to 1 hour, then you are out the door. That is the only style that works in pitch games.
Best luck!
--Mayor
Visit from the Peppermill casino...
Posted by Mayor on 05-Nov-2002 17:22:55 (#505)
OK, what do you think they are looking at?
64-161-38-150.peppermillcas.com Commercial Tue, 5 Nov 23:16:06
Also, a boss named Jimmy posted from the Chumash Casino that he is "looking out for me, and the students from UCSB".
Hi Jimmy! You should let me play 8-)
--Mayor
Re: Visit from the Peppermill casino...
Posted by darksun on 05-Nov-2002 17:44:04 (#507)
Mayor,
is there a blackjack "scene" at ucsb? Like is there a club or anything?
I am a third year computer science major at UCI and I am considering starting a little blackjack club type thing. any input?
Re: Visit from the Peppermill casino...
Posted by The Mayor on 05-Nov-2002 17:51:58 (#508)
There used to be a team here, centered in Mechanical Engineering. That does not seem to still be active (from what I hear). There is no "club" here, but that sounds like a fun idea.
UCI is a good school,
--Mayor
A new college team...
Posted by zengrifter on 07-Nov-2002 17:15:44 (#527)
... might be a worthy and noble undertaking - a joint UCSB/UCI student collaboration - why should a few MIT kids and profs have all the fun.
zg(lives 20min from UCI)
How is your trip going? *NM*
Posted by The Mayor on 07-Nov-2002 17:33:17 (#528)
Re: How is your trip going?
Posted by zengrifter on 08-Nov-2002 00:54:25 (#538)
The Mayor wrote:
A real pleasure meeting you, Zengrifter, I hope your [team] trip is going well.
Thank you, and the feeling is truly mutual... NO the trip is NOT going well (yet)... BUT in our world, "what goes down MUST come up" though not necessarily in this lifetime (or trip) - I made arrangements to garner an additional 20 CasinoPerks coupon books ($400 value each - $8,000+ fortification) to "dampen the capital descent," sort of like an emergency "booster rocket" or a "submarine blowing its emergency ballast" if you will...
"Never give up, never surrender!" -cap'nZG
Re: A new college team...
Posted by darksun on 07-Nov-2002 18:23:42 (#531)
seriously zg. i read the mit book and it really motivates me, I hope to eventually get to that level.
Re: A new college team...
Posted by zengrifter on 08-Nov-2002 00:31:27 (#536)
A college team collaboration would be a gas - maybe UCI/UCSB - college-disciplined drilling, and ultimately a starting core of 5-8 part-time counters playing to an initial $50-100k bank... BUT if you are speaking of a FOOL-TIME pro-solo carreer... FOGGITABOUTIT! zg
Re: A new college team...
Posted by darksun on 08-Nov-2002 11:50:14 (#547)
Where does the 50 to 100k come from? That's the issue =P
Another one being, do team tactics really exist anymore? big player, etc? Or is the only team tactic these days more counters = more profit.
Re: A new college team...
Posted by zengrifter on 08-Nov-2002 13:38:01 (#556)
Where does the $50 come from?... From the new teammates college tuition , ofcourse... or your folks... or a rich aunt perhaps? YES BP variations are still in use, but required only for the biggest plays (ie, NOT req. for 2x$1000, ARE req. for 2x$5000+) zg
Re: A new college team...
Posted by MLB Scout on 18-Nov-2002 15:45:22 (#692)
Funny you should say thet zg. I have very strong ties at Caltech.
Stay tuned....
MLB
Best Blackjack (Scoblete)
Posted by darksun on 05-Nov-2002 17:41:54 (#506)
How is scoblete's best blackjack?
I hope someone will answer
Posted by The Mayor on 05-Nov-2002 18:37:42 (#509)
I have never looked at the book, maybe you should give us your report on it!
There are enough great books out there that one should not be messing with anything less. See the reading list on this site for some starters.
--Mayor
Re: Best Blackjack (Scoblete)
Posted by learning to count on 05-Nov-2002 21:11:05 (#512)
I have not seen or heard of this book but I do remember an article called rythmic rolling in craps. This article claimed that a group of craps gamblers have perfected a rolling techniue so that they could manipulate the dice to land on a point number and not on seven. Thus they could keep earning money. VOODOO! I am very sure Scoblete was the author. If you read it write a book review and share it.
More voodoo
Posted by The Mayor on 05-Nov-2002 22:14:08 (#513)
I like the guys who very carefully align the two dice in a certain pattern, then toss them towards an exact spot on the far side of the table. Maybe they spend hours at home tossing them.
I actually think there might be something to staring at a roulette wheel for hundreds of hours. It may be possible to train your mind to pick out the correct hemisphere for the ball with enough practice, there is a certain music going on. But, I witnessed a pure progression player lose 7 times in a row playing 19-36. The pile was 128 chips high the last bet. Then he decided he didn't have enough "courage" for the next bet, so he put down 1 chip and won. I guess this is what Patrick calls "lack of discipline," but please, don't repsond to this sentence in a post 8-)
Playing BJ, a man sitting next to me was claiming that craps was the only beatable game in the house. I asked him how. He said it relied on how everybody was betting, and it relied on having a skilled thrower. I guess both of these are defined by those who were present during a spat of positive variance.
--Mayor
Re: Best Blackjack (Scoblete)
Posted by SplitFives on 05-Nov-2002 23:06:25 (#514)
Good choice, I think, because it says all the
things you don't want to forget, and is entertaining
and clear enough to make them memorable. Also,
much better prose than is normal in blackjack books.
It's aimed at the reasonably intelligent and diligent
advantage player, and lays out the required background
for solid advantage play. Scoblete leaves some
of the more aggressive and technical topics to others: for example,
shuffle tracking and ace tracking. You'll find fewer hard numbers
than in Wong ['Professional Blackjack'] or Humble & Cooper
['World's Greatest Blackjack Book'], and little discussion
of how to attack non-standard games.
Still, Scoblete filters and organizes well, which
is what gives the book its value: interesting examples
and storylines weave together into a thorough
rundown of what you'll need to know. Alone, the examples
of players and their play justify the price of the volume,
which is as readable as gaming writing gets.
Typical of his approach is his conclusion about the various
counting systems: use Hi-Lo and save your energy for correct
casino comportment. [Of course, I use another count because I have
a deep need to feel superior, but my personal issues are
another topic!] The themes of camouflage, behavior and
self-control pervade the book: Scoblete ceaselessly
stresses the behavioral aspect of the game, beyond just counting
and avoiding over- and underbetting. His list of commandments
concerning casino behavior is sensible, obvious, and, in
my experience, basic to getting through a session.
You could start with this volume as the core of your library,
then read more about more aggressive and specialized techniques
elsewhere.
Also, in contrast to the classic blackjack books, Scoblete's
seems to fit contemporary playing reality on issues such as spreads.
Worth the money.
Re: Best Blackjack (Scoblete)
Posted by The Mayor on 06-Nov-2002 09:35:37 (#515)
I read your profile: "Proud to have doubled on A-8 vs. 2, more than once." I keep the indices for doubling A-8 vs. 4, 5, and 6. The index for A-8 vs. 2 is about +7 Hi-Lo. You must have gotten some weird looks. I don't like to double A-8, it is a "tell". But A-8 vs. 2 looks like a ploppy play.
Thanks very much for your review of the book in question,
--Mayor
Re: Best Blackjack (Scoblete)
Posted by learning to count on 06-Nov-2002 21:27:43 (#516)
Great review. I might pick it up this weekend at the gamblers general store. Hey mayor remember saturday night if you can make it all you can eat. Wish me luck. I'm thinking about starting a new club the Eliot Ness and the Treasury Boys card counting club. Just joking. LTC.
Re: Best Blackjack (Scoblete)
Posted by The Mayor on 06-Nov-2002 22:04:07 (#517)
I wish I could meet you, but alas, life calls 8-)
Re: Best Blackjack (Scoblete)
Posted by darksun on 07-Nov-2002 18:04:23 (#530)
Thank you for your review. I am going to pick this book up tonight.
Wish me good luck on my cruise this weekend. I think I am ready to put my new skills to the test.
-darksun
Re: Best Blackjack (Scoblete) *LINK*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 07-Nov-2002 22:13:47 (#533)
I got that book a few years ago at a used book store. Every book I read is full of markings and high lighting which helps me find key pieces of info. There are quite a few notes in my book, and it is an okay book. You can learn from it as you can any blackjack book. 3.5 stars out of 5
Restriction on Profiles lifted
Posted by The Mayor on 07-Nov-2002 11:19:27 (#519)
Group,
I have lifted the restriction that each poster have a profile with a valid email address in order to post. Anyone can post using any handle at any time. I believe that I have enough other new security measures in place, that this is no longer necessary. However, I still encourage each poster here to create a profile.
I am truly sorry for the difficulties and obsticles to posting that have been created over the last few days, and I hope that the conversation can now continue. But, I will say, that the final "form" this board will take is still in flux.
Thanks so much for your patience and understanding,
--The Mayor
Sound Familar?
Posted by Some Days on 07-Nov-2002 11:56:46 (#520)
Last night at the tables.
$5 twenty to the right, $5 blackjack to the left, I'm in the middle looking at a $100 Ten & 2.
Dealer has Ten up, I hit and naturally get a Ten and bust. Dealer amazingly has a 6 in the hole, hits, draws another Ten for the bust.
Player to the right collects his $5, Player to the left gets $7.50, and I am putting down my minimum $10 bet as the count that justified the $100 bet has now disappeared.
You really got to love this game.
Very much so.
Posted by The Mayor on 07-Nov-2002 12:04:37 (#521)
That does sound familiar, incredbily so. Some times it seems this is the "norm" for the game.
Here is another example, the count is right on the brink of one decision vs. another. You are doing all the calculations you can, then you see that one last card that is dealt to the ploppy on your right. That card changes the count just barely enough to change your play. As a result, rather than standing on 12 VS. 3 you hit 12 VS.3, losing your max bet. I cannot tell you how many times this has happened.
Or this one, playing two hands, I have a 15 VS. T which I surrender, then I hit my 16 VS. the dealer's 7, and pull a 6. The next guy to my left then gets dealt a 5 when he hits his 16 VS. the dealer's T.
I would think it is a conspiracy, if I was not winning despite all these horror stories.
--Mayor
What would you expect the pit to do...
Posted by 10Splitter on 07-Nov-2002 15:33:48 (#522)
In the following scenario:
Most of the table is dealt 17s and 18s which they stand on.
The dealer has an "8" upcard.
The dealer then flips over their hole card, which is a 10.
The dealer then hits his 18 with a 4.
The pit was then called over to evaluate the situation. The pit person took the 4 and discarded it. Told the dealer to take everybody's chips who had under an 18.
I argued (although breifly) that the dealer busted her hand, and that we should all get paid. Furthermore, I pointed out that if I "accidentally" busted my hand with such a hit, that I would have to give up my chips. The pit decided to ignore my argument.
This was in a Mississippi casino.
I am wondering if there is any kind of rule or regulation dictacting the appropriate action for the casino in this situation.
Also, does anybody have a suggestion for a better argument that I could have used with the pit.
Thanks in advance,
Re: What would you expect the pit to do...
Posted by Some Days on 07-Nov-2002 15:53:11 (#525)
I would have expected the pit to do just what it did.
Some classier Pit Bosses would have ruled a misdeal and paid everybody, or at least pushed the losing hands, but technically, the procedure followed was correct.
If you 'accidentally' hit your hand, and it gave you 21, do you demand that the casino take the card back?
If the dealer hits you when you haven't signalled, or have signalled stand, then you have a case about not taking the card.
Expected
Posted by The Mayor on 07-Nov-2002 16:42:32 (#526)
This pit made the correct and expected (and approprite) decision. They are bound (by law) to play the game a certain way for the house, and it would be very dangerous for them to knowingly violate the rules. It would look like "payola".
On the other hand, there are tricks you can use to make this sort of thing work to your advantage. One I do is to switch back and forth from playing one hand to playing two hands. Then, if (when!) the dealer forgets to deal a card to the second of the "two hands", then I can decide whether I like the one hand I was dealt, or else I can call the pit over and say that they missed my second hand, and I want out of the hand altogether.
This works about one time per session, and you don't want to make it too obvious. But it is a way to get a "free hand" once in a while.
--Mayor
Gambling Laws
Posted by Count Luckula on 07-Nov-2002 15:36:26 (#523)
I have not seen much on the subject of Gambling Laws and was wondering what some of you experts may know.
1. If you are in a casino and are asked for ID, is it illegal to present a false ID for name purposes only (assuming you are 21)?
2. Can you present someone elses comp card to avoid revealing your real name and hoping they don't ask for ID?
3. I have read in both Nevada and Mississippi the casino can bar you, but what can New Jersey Casino's legally do? e.g. not playing to the cut card, make you flat bet, etc. What about other States with BJ?
I am not trying to due anything illegal and I would like know where to draw the line and where the casinos are suppose to draw the line.
Re: Gambling Laws
Posted by Some Days on 07-Nov-2002 15:49:50 (#524)
1. If you are in a casino and are asked for ID, is it illegal to present a false ID for name purposes only (assuming you are 21)?
No. This case has been fought and won in the NV State Supreme Court.
2. Can you present someone elses comp card to avoid revealing your real name and hoping they don't ask for ID?
Yes. They are a casino, they do not have a god-given constitutional right to know your name. But at the same time, you don't have a god-given constitutional right to play their games or even enter their property.
3. I have read in both Nevada and Mississippi the casino can bar you, but what can New Jersey Casino's legally do? e.g. not playing to the cut card, make you flat bet, etc.
Yes, Yes, and Yes. In NJ they can't bar you, but they can do everything else under the sun to make the game unplayable, or even close the table you are playing at.
Re: Gambling Laws
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 07-Nov-2002 23:40:22 (#534)
Any knowledge of Canadian laws on barring and flat betting etc.?
Re: Gambling Laws
Posted by zengrifter on 08-Nov-2002 00:26:15 (#535)
NO barring or counter-measures, nada, zilch, none, zip... just (mostly) lousy games for pure-counting. zg
Re: Gambling Laws
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 08-Nov-2002 00:36:02 (#537)
Thanks,
Yea, just about all the games are are 8 decks, dealt terribly shallow. But, I've eeked out a reasonable situation or two.
EV Booster #22 "Partners on the double"...
Posted by zengrifter on 08-Nov-2002 01:32:17 (#539)
... or pair-split - The key to this move is to cultivate a 'table alliance' with another player who will allow you to put up part of the additional doubledown or pair-split.
For example, WHENEVER I see a fellow player chunk out his last stack in frustration I immediately alert him/her that "If you get a good doubledown hand I'm putting up the other half" - "Partners on a doubledown" is what I proclaim as I place the other half of the money out "risk sharing!" I exclaim. Whenever I see someone place a large 'last shot' bet out I immediately announce that I'm "locked and louded" with the other part of the money and I demonstratively segregate the amount out... if I see a player hesitate on a double or place a sizeable 'double for less' I'm in, I'm there.
If the amount is larger than your reg topBet thats OK, the edge on 1/2doubles is
HIGH, even doubling below the index is OK, go for it. Splitting is another story, I haven't analysed entirely, but I would go split partners on 9s against 2-8, 10s against 2-8, etc. perhaps most 'aggressive splits' but certainly no 'defensive splits' (ie, 8s v 10, etc.) - if a ploppy macho boozed redneck or negro male gets 10s against 2-8 I announce, "if you got the balls to split those I'll put up half the dough!"
When players turn me down on the partner double, I say in mock-concern "OK, but I must warn you that its very unlucky to turn me down on a partner-double." If we win a partner-double I reinforce for the next time with a high-five, "yeah!pleasure doing business with you" or if we lose I reinforce with "see its good to share the risk... but you owe me another chance, good buddy!"
Drunk females are the best-easiest, but watch out - the cute ones (no matter how drunk) will want you to inturn go partners on 88vA, a tricky situation.
If a dealer intervenes to preempt the move I'm ususally oblivious and reassurringly instruct the "partner" to "here take my chips"
One time I went partners with a $300 matching partner-double and we lost - in the next instant the player turned to me casually and asked, "ok, now how much do I owe you?" zg
and other advantageous plays
Posted by Capo de Capos on 08-Nov-2002 05:16:53 (#541)
double A8 vs 8 for example
9 double vs 7 or 2
even 55 split against 5,6 with DAS
So...
Posted by motheye on 08-Nov-2002 13:16:50 (#550)
One time I went partners with a $300 matching partner-double and we lost - in the next instant the player turned to me casually and asked, "ok, now how much do I owe you?"
And you answered?
The preparation advice is really good, I have missed opportunities because I moved too slowly. I had not thought about cultivating playing partners and may give it a shot.
motheye
Re: So...
Posted by zengrifter on 08-Nov-2002 13:30:44 (#553)
I was tempted to tell him $150... but instead I told him "another one" zg
Re: EV Booster #22 "Partners on the double"...
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 08-Nov-2002 17:21:56 (#559)
I have an Excel spread sheet up aht the card counters cafe that shows you the advantage available for these plays. Let me see if I can cut n paste it here:
SPLIT UP CARD ADVANT DOUBLE UP CARD ADVANT DOUBLE UP CARD ADVANT
A,A A 1.25 11 A 1.28 A,9 9 1.35
A,A 10 1.84 11 10 1.76 A,9 8 2.72
A,A 9 2.38 11 9 2.31 A,9 7 3.86
A,A 8 3.65 11 8 3.52 A,9 6 5.69
A,A 7 4.8 11 7 4.74 A,9 5 5.1
A,A 6 6.83 11 6 6.84 A,9 4 4.63
A,A 5 6.34 11 5 6.46 A,9 3 4.09
A,A 4 5.82 11 4 5.88 A,9 2 3.6
A,A 3 5.34 11 3 5.34
A,A 2 4.87 11 2 4.84 A,8 8 1.97
A,8 7 3.19
10,10 A 1.54 10 9 1.45 A,8 6 4.79
10,10 10 0.53 10 8 2.9 A,8 5 4.17
10,10 9 2.25 10 7 4.07 A,8 4 3.56
10,10 8 3.89 10 6 5.91 A,8 3 3
10,10 7 5.06 10 5 5.41 A,8 2 2.39
10,10 6 5.17 10 4 4.28
10,10 5 4.5 10 3 4.21 A,7 7 2.21
10,10 4 4.04 10 2 3.65 A,7 6 3.86
10,10 3 3.64 A,7 5 3.07
10,10 2 3.24 9 7 1.15 A,7 4 2.53
9 6 3.28 A,7 3 1.78
9,9 8 2.21 9 5 2.68 A,7 2 1.23
9,9 7 3.75 9 4 1.96
9,9 6 4.56 9 3 1.3 A,6 6 2.61
9,9 5 3.95 9 2 0.73 A,6 5 1.93
9,9 4 3.2 A,6 4 1.24
9,9 3 2.33 8 6 1.01 A,6 3 0.58
9,9 2 1.87 8 5 0.23
A,5 6 1.85
8,8 7 3.19 A,5 5 1.32
8,8 6 4.08 A,5 4 0.59
8,8 5 3.04
8,8 4 2.2 A,4 6 1.86
8,8 3 1.48 A,4 5 1.92
8,8 2 0.77 A,4 4 0.64
7,7 6 2.44 A,3 6 1.86
7,7 5 1.65 A,3 5 1.92
7,7 4 0.6 A,3 4 0.64
6,6 6 1.55 A,2 6 1.88
6,6 5 0.99 A,2 5 1.41
A,2 4 0.68
4,4 6 1.69
4,4 5 1.15
3,3 6 2.08
3,3 5 1.43
3,3 4 0.38
2,2 6 2.35
2,2 5 1.57
2,2 4 0.55
mucho complexity
Posted by The Mayor on 08-Nov-2002 17:25:05 (#560)
I am assuming the right hand most column is your edge by accepting the bet.
This is a very interesting question. Suppose the person next to you is a high roller who has just put out a $300 bet. Your max bet is $150. The dealer has a T showing and the HR turns over a 6-5 and says he just wants to hit. Do you risk double your max bet for this? I wouldn't. But, if the dealer had a 4,5,6 showing, I would gladly join with the ploppy.
Thus, the risk/reward/kelley fraction has to be measured even in these cases. This is not an easy topic, and I appreciate your contribution of this data.
--Mayor
Re: mucho complexity
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 08-Nov-2002 20:23:09 (#566)
"I am assuming the right hand most column is your edge by accepting the bet.
This is a very interesting question. Suppose the person next to you is a high roller who has just put out a $300 bet. Your max bet is $150. The dealer has a T showing and the HR turns over a 6-5 and says he just wants to hit. Do you risk double your max bet for this? I wouldn't. But, if the dealer had a 4,5,6 showing, I would gladly join with the ploppy.
Thus, the risk/reward/kelley fraction has to be measured even in these cases. This is not an easy topic, and I appreciate your contribution of this data."
You are welcome. If the HR has $300 out s/he will normally be able to cover the double or split which would be another $300, not $150. But if they don't mind you jumping in with them, they are flat betting and never bet more per hand, then you are set. Much of this depends on your bankroll and doubling 11 vs 456 has a higher EV than 11 vs 10 up. You must be talking about a pitch game Mayor. In a pitch game you only turn your 5-6 up to double, otherwise you just go for a hit. If your roll is 10K betting $300 works from 8 on down with your average over 3.5%. You can't get an edge of 6% anywhere else on the felt. It is difficult to remember all of these play numbers but it is rather easy to remember the sweet spots from this list.
11 A 1.28
doubling against non-stiff hand
Posted by motheye on 08-Nov-2002 20:41:32 (#568)
Suppose the person next to you is a high roller who has just put out a $300 bet. Your max bet is $150. The dealer has a T showing and the HR turns over a 6-5 and says he just wants to hit. Do you risk double your max bet for this? I wouldn't. But, if the dealer had a 4,5,6 showing, I would gladly join with the ploppy.
I don't seek a ploppies double when the dealer has a non-stiff card up. Doubling 11 or ten against a stiff causes no problems, even if you get a twelve total after hit/double, the ploppie will want to stay. A little more of a problem on the ploppies nine, where a 2 on the 9 will give an 11, which you can't rehit after doubling. But ploppies know that doubling nine/stiff is usually is the right play, even if they don't do it (just bad luck if you draw the 2!).
But I am much more uncomfortable doubling against dealer high card (ie ten) as in your example. Grab the 2 with a double on the ploppies 11, and suddenly the ploppie will feel screwed as he now realizes he can't hit (this won't occur to him beforehand, or he wouldn't allow you to double, he originally thinks there is no difference!).
I'd rather take it out mercilessly on the casino than take a little EV away from a chump. I'm actually not to comfortable with Poker for this reason, but I suppose this will change with time and even more abuse heaped upon me at the gaming tables.
As for how much to risk in this situation? If you are going to seek out opportunities to exploit you probably should have an good idea of the expectation of the double or split (and possible split double). I use the back of Wong's PB, also BJA might be helpful in the cost of cover/misplays chapter (the charts are good to know in general).
If the opportunity will be infrequent, I wouldn't sweat it, just do it if it seems right.
motheye
Re: EV Booster #22 "Partners on the double"...
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 08-Nov-2002 17:27:44 (#562)
what a mess!
try this link:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/blackjackcardcounterscafe/files/other%20players%20hands.xls
Re: EV Booster #22 "Partners on the double"...
Posted by zengrifter on 08-Nov-2002 19:07:13 (#563)
Thats a valuable chart IF its correct! zg
Question about joining BJRN and LVA
Posted by Count Luckula on 08-Nov-2002 10:00:00 (#543)
Which are the best value to order for info and coupons?
1. Las Vegas Advisor ($50)
- essay on Casino security (additional $50)
2. Blackjack Review Network ($35)
3. Casino Player Magazine ($24)
4. Casino Perks ($45)
Re: Question about joining BJRN and LVA
Posted by The Mayor on 08-Nov-2002 10:02:30 (#544)
Certainly 1 & 4 will pay for themselves many times over, and thus you can afford 2 and 3.
ZG is on a coupon spree in Vegas as we speak, and I know many other readers often use these books, maybe they can comment on the EV and practical considerations.
--Mayor
In order: #1,#4,#3,#2 *NM*
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 08-Nov-2002 11:45:44 (#545)
Re: Question about joining BJRN and LVA
Posted by zengrifter on 08-Nov-2002 13:28:57 (#551)
**my comments -
Which are the best value to order for info and coupons?
1. Las Vegas Advisor ($50)
**Highly recommended, but unless you plan to take advantage of the free room offer from stardust, save $13 and order the online version.... AND you'd be STUPID if you didn't buy one for the Mrs too (even if there is no Mrs)
essay on Casino security (additional $50)
**If thats the CDCellini work, everything you need to know is contained in the BJForum (unless you are a serious pro) - BJF is what you should pay the extra $$s for.
2. Blackjack Review Network ($35)
**BJRN is SOOO DEAD that if that M.Dalton character (he's a NASA scientist) continues to offer newbies a chance to join, I will personally accuse him of running a dot.com scam.
3. Casino Player Magazine ($24)
**Foggittaboutit! (you can buy one in the rack whenever you visit LV - you probably won't buy more than one ever.
4. Casino Perks ($45)
**Buy two of the "GAMING EDITION" EVERYTIME you visit LV and when you've built-up a cache of Laughlin Harrahs coups, be sure to use'em before they expire, otherwise you can mail them to me.
zg
And along this line...
Posted by phantom007 on 10-Nov-2002 09:41:56 (#576)
If one only visits LV 1-2x per year, and usually for 5-7 days at a time, may I ask:
-would it even be worth subscribing to issues such as Las Vegas advisor (presuming same can be bought at the Airport newstand)?
-would playing Coupons be worth the effort, presuming one will have taxi fare between various locations?
Thanks.
Re: And along this line...
Posted by Theef on 15-Nov-2002 13:49:51 (#645)
A 3-1 BJ coupon has an EV of about $35.* Many of the LVA 3-1 coupons are offered by outlying locals casinos; I suspect the cab fare would be prohibitive for many of those. But you only need to use one - say, the Barbary Coast one - to recoup practically all of the $37 online membership cost, and still have plenty of other good coupons left over. And if you have a car, it's definitely worthwhile to hit all of the 3-1 places. Do it on a Saturday night when you can't find a 1D table with less than four people.
* Quick 'n dirty calculation: Betting $25, you get paid an additional $37.50 after waiting for an expected 20 hands while exposed to the house advantage of about 0.5%. $37.50 - (0.005 * 20 * $25) ~= $35. The coupon gives you an edge of about 6.5% (2.33% per additional 1-2 BJ payoff, if I recall correctly, minus the off-the top 0.5% house edge).
Re: And along this line...
Posted by V-man on 15-Nov-2002 19:43:13 (#651)
Actual EV is probably a little less due to the 1 hour limit of the coupons. But EV isn't everything, don't forget variance. 3-1 or 2-1 BJ coupon have huge variance (compared to match plays).
NO "1hr limit" on the 3-1s, Theef it...
Posted by zengrifter on 20-Nov-2002 02:49:29 (#740)
... was good meeting you! zg
Counting advice for a noob?
Posted by Ryan on 08-Nov-2002 11:49:28 (#546)
Hey guys. New to the blackjack scene. I've only played once at a casino, and lost about 200 bucks. I picked up a book on blackjack and am learning basic strategy using a computer game, but according to this site I'm still hosed if I don't count. I have no idea where to start though. What do you guys think of the KO system? Or do you mostly stick with the Hi-Lo? I have no idea where to start as far as counting goes. Please help a noob.
The place to start
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 08-Nov-2002 12:30:42 (#548)
The place to start is knowing basic strategy.
There is no such thing as learning basic strategy.
You must KNOW basic strategy, it must be ingrained into your memory, burned into your brain, tattooed on the inside of your skull.
You must instantly if you should hit/stand/double/split/surrender given any two card combination against any dealer upcard without even thinking about it.
Once you have mastered this step, then you can worry about counting and gaining an advantage.
noobie-do
Posted by motheye on 08-Nov-2002 13:08:50 (#549)
It is often said that 90-95% of players that learn counting will eventually fail/go broke. So be take a hard look statistically at where you might end up!
Couple of questions:
How much money are you willing to risk at BJ (ie quit forever when you lose this amount)? If it is less than a couple thousand bucks, you might as well just stop now and try something else. The fluctuations WILL wipe out most underfunderfunded players (who are playing perfectly, you won't be!). Take a look at the "The Mayors BJ journal" link on the side and imagine starting playing where his stats nosedive. He is a solid player with a difficult count system, but like all us he faces inevitable negative fluctuations.
How often will you play, is there a good game near you? There is no sense in learning to count for one trip a year to Vegas. The learning/practice time required for counting will make your hourly expectation to be in the sub 10 cent range if you are a nickel player. Having a good game near you helps get thru the startup period, hopefully a shoe game with late surrender, decent penetration and the possiblity of avoiding negative counts.
KO is a great starting count, but if you think you will be playing a lot, I would recommend HiLo.
Ask a lot of questions, especially about bet size and risk. Every now and then a recognized poster disappears from cyberspace. Some suspect aliens being involved, I think they are part of the 90% of lost souls!
motheye
Re: noobie-do
Posted by Ryan on 08-Nov-2002 13:30:23 (#552)
I set casino limits. I haven't really set a lifetime limit. I live paycheck to paycheck like (most) everybody else, and go to the casinos in Louisiana, about 2 hours away, when my buddies and I get the urge and the extra spending money. I'm not looking to strike it insanely rich, as I have a million other get-rich-quick schemes for that (most involving a large anti-gravity device). I'm just looking to play cards for fun, and it seems like it'd be a lot more fun if you had a winning proposition than a losing one.
Re: noobie-do DETAILS
Posted by zengrifter on 08-Nov-2002 13:34:07 (#554)
Counting is like casino-antigravity... DETAILS of your commercial antigravity concept(s) would be welcome on the nonBJ board HERE!. zg
Re: noobie-do
Posted by The Mayor on 08-Nov-2002 13:36:12 (#555)
This is a very bad way to proceed. You must have a bankroll specifically allocated to the game. If you don't have enough spare cash to risk losing it all, then don't play. This is just like investing in the markets. You must be able to ride out the bad times, knowing that the good times are inevitable.
By the way, Motheye is an extremely respected expert, and his advice is worth its weight in electronic gold.
Nice to see you posting, Motheye,
--Mayor
Re: noobie-do
Posted by Ryan on 08-Nov-2002 13:57:25 (#557)
Zengrifter, my anti-gravity machine is a pipe dream. The mad scientist thing didn't really work out for me.
Thank you for your advice guys. So you are saying that unless I have insane amounts of money on hand to lose, don't start playing?
Re: noobie-do
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 08-Nov-2002 14:06:05 (#558)
You don't need insane amounts of money, just really crazy amounts.
The cash doesn't need to be on-hand all at one time. If you are prepared to, and can add, to your bankroll from future income, then you can consider that money part of your 'bigger bankroll'.
But, you have to be prepared to lose it all. If you would have any regrets about simply throwing the money away into the street and watching the wind blow it away, if you would feel any concern about that, then that money wasn't gambling money. NEVER gamble with money you might need and are not totally prepared to lose.
'Needed' money never wins.
Re: noobie-do, and BR too
Posted by zengrifter on 08-Nov-2002 19:18:11 (#565)
ADM's response is too extreeme - you must know the likelyhood of losing it all, but then YOU decide how much risk you want to take - a 20%RoR is OK for some, while a 2%RoR is too much for another. IMO the smaller the BR the bigger the RoR necessary and appropriate. zg
Re: noobie-do
Posted by zengrifter on 08-Nov-2002 19:12:11 (#564)
My opinion is that you CAN play as though you have $2500 ($5units) even if you only have $500 to start - if the $500 is lost you simply do it again with another $500 at a later date - and if that $500 is also lost, once again at a later date. This concept is known by various terms including "lifetimeBR", "installmentBR", throw in a couple 2-3 small casino credit lines and you have MY concept o0f the "virtualBR" zg
Someone tell me how good this game is.
Posted by Dave- on 09-Nov-2002 00:41:07 (#569)
I live in Indiana. It seems around here we have a lot of Spanish 21 games. I just wondered how good these games are. 8 deck, surrender anytime,double down anytime (even on 4 cards I believe), about 60-65 % penetration, dealer stands on soft 17, blackjack is still 3 to 2. There are some other crazy rules with 7's but I am not exactly sure what that is. Something about getting 3 7's and the payout is larger. Does anyone know what the house advantage on this might be?
Re: Someone tell me how good this game is.
Posted by zengrifter on 09-Nov-2002 02:40:20 (#571)
With the correct 'SBJ-BS' (basic strategy for spanish21) the OTT housEdge is about .9% - span21 is a real dog - worse than moste any crappy regBJ game - addt'l info on sBJ may be found at wizardofodds.com.
Like I've been known to tell the pit - "The reason I don't play sBJ? Because I may be loco, but I'm not bindahjo!" zg
Ps - if you do try to count it, start your (hiLo) count at -24 (or -28 for 8D), better still, foggitaboutit!
Re: Someone tell me OOPS HERE
Posted by zengrifter on 09-Nov-2002 03:51:20 (#573)
http://thewizardofodds.com/game/spanish21.html
Re: Someone tell me OOPS HERE--__PW_FORM_DATA_BOUN
Posted by Dave--__PW_FORM_DATA_BOUNDARY__ on 10-Nov-2002 03:14:47 (#575)
Thanks Zen. I had no idea that spanish 21 deck was minus 4 tens. Those casino dealers never told me. No wonder I lost all my money. Only 100 dollars, though. I was planning on learning some new card counting strategies and playing spanish 21 but I guess not.
--__PW_FORM_DATA_BOUNDARY__
Money Wired! *LINK*
Posted by zengrifter on 09-Nov-2002 04:06:23 (#574)
An excellent long article, contains a photo of the Bellagio Surveillance gal who has tagged several of us. zg
-----------------------
What happens when a gambling town falls hard for the computer network? Hacker crooks. Megajackpot slots. Cutting-edge surveillance software. And that's just the start.
by Dan Koeppel
Popular Science
Kathleen Budz had been at the slots in the New York-New York casino for only a couple of hours when the big money came along. The Chicago grandmother was seated at one of four chattering Wheel of Fortune games in the Big Apple-themed casino-a rococo affair with a mock Empire State Building, Statue of Liberty, and Coney Island roller coaster.
The gambling device in question is a fairly typical modern Vegas slot. Three spinning reels occupy the center of the machine. Players can wager as little as a quarter, and small jackpots-a dollar or 10-come along frequently enough to keep the action going. But the huge bonus prize is the real draw-announced by an electronic display that resembles the ticking wheel on the TV game show, placed just above eye level.
As her losses mounted to more than $200, Budz fed the machine $5 tokens, pressing the Spin button almost rhythmically-no serious slot player touches the pull handle on a one-armed bandit. To Budz, a few hundred bucks on a Vegas visit is "just entertainment." Then it happened: The symbols on the three reels matched, and the digital Wheel of Fortune began to spin, indicating a win. On the top of the machine, the jackpot was posted: $4 million. Budz couldn't read the total; she'd forgotten her glasses. But her husband, standing behind, did. "Seven digits," he yelled. "Seven digits!"
continued -
Re: Money Wired!
Posted by SammyBoy on 13-Nov-2002 16:08:37 (#614)
This link seems to work better:
http://www.popsci.com/popsci/computers/article/0,12543,385529,00.html
Interesting article. That's one mean looking witch.
Advanced Red 7 Question
Posted by MrPill on 10-Nov-2002 10:48:27 (#577)
Mayor, nice message board. Enjoyed reading the Golden Gate a while back and have been lurking here for a while.
I have a Red 7 question to the group, I know from CCC that ZG is a R7 advocate for casual players and may have the answer I'm looking for.
In the Advanced R7 index table that Snyder has on pg. 48 (1998) of Blackbelt in BJ. I'm a little confused on a few of the index numbers he has included for the shoe games. In particular he has RC of 4 as the number to take insurance, to stand on 12 vs 2 and also the point to double down on 10 vs 10.
I realize that these are the numbers he says to follow in the second half of the shoe, but it would seem to me that they would be the same or possibly even lower than the RC number of 2 that he introduces in the beginning of the Red 7 chapter for these same plays.
My logic is that as you get deeper into the shoe, you maintain the same 10/non10 ratio at the same running count, but you have less non10 cards (also less 10 cards). So would this not give you a better chance to catch a 10 (or be under the dealers Ace) due to the smaller number of cards as you get deeper into the shoe and thus a smaller number of occurrences "allowed" in one standard deviation associated with it?
What part of my logic is flawed?
Thanks in advance to all,
Pill
Re: Advanced Red 7 Question
Posted by The Mayor on 10-Nov-2002 11:03:01 (#578)
I don't know anything about Red-7, so I can't comment on your question about the indices, but your last paragraph is interesting.
Suppose you have a hat with 100 red jelly beans and 100 blue jelly beans. Then your chance of picking a red is 50%, the same as if it had 1 of each. But, here is the key, your chances of getting two reds in a row are:
(100/200)*(99/199) = 24.87%
However, if you have a hat with 2 red jelly beans and 2 blue jelly beans, then once again your chance of picking a red is 50%, but now, your chances of getting two reds in a row are:
(2/4)*(1/3) = 16.67%.
Thus, the effect you are referring to says that (for example) with a TC of 10 in a shoe game with 5 decks remaining, you are more likely to get a 20 (a pair of T's) than with a TC of 10 in that same shoe game with 1 or 2 decks remaining.
This effect is true, but many other things effects are true as well, and the situation is very subtle. When you boil it all down, a TC of 10 is much better in a shoe game with 1 or 2 decks left, than if you had that same TC of 10 with 5 decks left. Don Schlesinger refers to this as the "Floating Point Advantage" and he documents it quite nicely in BJA-2nd edition.
In essence, the same TC has a different value in terms of describing your edge, depending on the point in the shoe at which that TC is achieved. You might have a max bet at the top of the shoe when the TC is 5, but by the time you get to the last couple of hands, your max bet should be out when the TC is 4.
--Mayor
Re: Advanced Red 7 Question
Posted by zengrifter on 19-Nov-2002 02:31:12 (#711)
Sorry for the delay MP, I don't have BBIBJ handy, nor do I personally play R7, but I would simply say that one of the drawbacks of the R7 simplicity is the lack of a single coherrent matrix of indices (i#s) - the 1-2D i#s have been 'morphed together for convienience, and the shoe-version assumes 3-4Ds per last half. So ONLY IF the i#s were for a TC -AND- IF the IRC was adjusted per #decks-starting, would the i#s then run consistent regardless of the #decks, but NOT in the case of a pure RC-mode system - UBZ2, SS, KO, R7, and other unbalanced-genre systems have this same quirk. zg
Re: Advanced Red 7 Question
Posted by MrPill on 19-Nov-2002 11:35:45 (#717)
Thanks ZG, I see your point.
Snyder has put the adjustments into the advanced play index table for us R7 players. The RC of 2 takes on a slightly different meaning the deeper you go into the shoe. This is why the index numbers become a little greater than in the first half of the shoe for the same play variations.
Pill
Re: Advanced Red 7 Question
Posted by zengrifter on 20-Nov-2002 01:45:29 (#738)
Honestly, thats my assesment without reviewing the matter or the book, since R7 logic isn't second-nature to me - but thats the drawback to all of the pure-pivot-type systems, different matrices for different #decks. I recall that R7 could be further composited to where using a suitable IRC the 6-8D i#s are simply x2.
R7 is all you need for a few+ outings per year and noses out KO - if a TC-adjust is not difficult for you, the 'TR7' noses out HiLo - add 50 addt'l i#s and you are cooking with fire - count all 7s=.50 and the resultant TC-adjusted 'Half7s' strategy is a solid level-2 hybrid. Other subsets are viable as well, such as increased i#s but RC-based, etc.
The standard R7 will yield the same EV as a full i#s level-2 by playing 75min session instead of 60min -or- by playing 25% faster -or- by playing 12% faster and 13% longer session (69min).
Caught in the Act of Counting.
Posted by phantom007 on 10-Nov-2002 11:46:37 (#579)
During a recent trip, the following situation developed. I was playing 1st Base with 2 other players in a SD game. The Count was +10 going into the 3rd, and usually final round. I had my max. bet out, $30. (much less than usual thanks to Estimated Tax Payments). The shortstop position was taken by an African-American female using a 10:1 spread...i.e., her weight was about 10x her estimated age of 35. I was only playing one hand, instead of my usual 2 at this Count, due to her insistance that my flip-flopping between 1-2 hands was giving the Dealer "all the good cards", and I did not want any extra attention to my playing style.
3rd Base was occupied by another African-American, a male who looked to be about 19, and who was dressed like a Gang Member. He had bought in for $100., lost two hands in a row, at bets of $10. each, so wisely placed his remaining $80. in the betting circle.
The cards are dealt. Dealer shows a "6" up...sweet. The Count is now +12. I look at my cards...as expected, a "10 & 9"...the Count drops to +9. Ms. Shortstop flips over a "6 & 5", doubling her $10. bet, then peeking, then throwing her "down" card, a "2", up for all to see...and the Count is now +14. 3rd Base flips over his "A & 3", then retrieves $80. in mixed bills from his billfold, so as to Double-Down. He likewise peeks then exposes his drawn Ace. The Count is now +15.
Time for the Dealer to Bust-out. He flips over a "4". Not good. The Count is now +17, he is going to get a "10"...but he draws a "6"...the Count shoots to +19, then he does not bust out with a "10", but rather a "7", which makes the Count +20.
Bedlam breaks out at the table. The other Players are screaming, hooping, hollerin', high-fiving, hugging, etc. The Dealer is even laughing, and congratulating the others on their good fortunes. The PC comes over, all smiles, to observe the party.
And I sit there, staring at the Dealer's "7" like a deer in the headlights. That should have been a "10". What if the Dealer screws up and deals another round? Should I let my winning ride? The remaining deck is likely nothing but ""10's" plus the unplayed Ace that my sidecount says should be in there somewhere. If the Dealer gets an Ace-up? Insurance...Definately!
Then, my daydream is broken...I realize that everyone is looking at me...the players, the Dealer, and the PC. Ms. Shortstop comments on "my cool". The PC then said "He's cool because he knew what cards were coming. He's a Card Counter."
Everyone (but me) chuckles...I am trying to remember the closest exit. But the PC just walks over to the adjoining table to approve change. I decided that my planned sprint to the door would be a little obvious, so I keep playing my system through the next deck, then calmly colour-up and leave.
So, TO THE POINT of this Post, I was not barred because:
A. The PC was joking.
B. The PC did not think I was very good.
C. My $10-30. spread did not threaten the Casino.
Would appreciate input and experience of others!
Thanks.
Re: Caught in the Act of Counting.
Posted by lifesabet on 10-Nov-2002 12:59:30 (#580)
phantom,
Im guessing the pit was practicing a little bit of pride. Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. 10 to 30 is not being a hog at all, in fact, to me it sounds like a very very long grind.
Im sure its a bit difficult to stop a 30 dollar bettor at a table surrounded by entertainment players. There is a cost to stopping the action and telling someone they cannot play another 30 bucks in front of a bunch of other winners who will probably walk out broke.
What a shame that you would have to play so paranoid. Is that actually fun?
I obviously dont know what Im talking about because I cannot see how your play would be enough of a threat to send you out the door. If you are writing this, then I must be wrong, Im just not seeing the big picture I guess.
If you were going 10 to 100 wonging with your multiple hands, it could be a different situation. Sounds to me like the pc did a good job in that he's got you guessing whether he was serious or not. Tell me, if on your way out he took you aside and discussed what he will and what he wont tolerate, would you be understanding and honorable enough to play within the limited edge he decided to allow for you? Again, I dont have enough experience to know whether this can be achieved, but I think Id give a new player the benefit of the doubt, lay down the unwritten policy, and see if they cooperate before playing hard ball.
lifesabet
Re: Caught
Posted by hammer on 10-Nov-2002 13:20:52 (#581)
Some casinos get worried over nothing while others worry over
everything,each one is entirely different.
Tell the pit critter
next time, what you fiquire just
because Iam a good player
that I win everytime,go out and try to play yourself and see how easy.
Re: Caught in the Act of Counting.
Posted by ZOD on 10-Nov-2002 15:16:31 (#582)
I know what you mean Phantom; the mind games and the different ways we handle them never cease to amaze me. Last week I was playing in a good shoe game when the shift change occurred. I had been there about 45 minutes spreading $10-$200 with no heat. The new floor walked over to get a rundown of goings on in the pit and there was the usual conversation about who was up and who was drunk and who was betting big. Then the outgoing floor said in a loud voice that there were two counters, tables 14 and 17, both at third base. Of course, I was at third base and there was a big "14" at the money drop on my table. I decided it was time for chow, colored up about $400 ahead, and headed for the Italian place in the casino. The guy on table 17 continued to play, though I'm sure he'd heard the same conversation I had. I mulled over the situation during dinner. Were they really on to me? Were they just trying to see who would act guilty? I didn't know. (That, by the way, is the reason I only play LOW stakes poker.) But, about an hour later as I walked by, the player on 17 was being invited to play any other game in the casino. He thanked them for their judgement of his prowess, colored up half a dozen purple and calmly walked out the door without cashing in.
I don't know if he had just been doing this a lot longer than me, or if he just had kahunas the size of coconuts. I just hope all those purples were profit...
ZOD
Re: Caught in the Act of Counting.
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 11-Nov-2002 09:07:28 (#583)
The PC didn't know you were counting, he threw out the remark to see your reaction. The shocked look in your eyes, your mouth hanging open, the sweat immediately breaking out on your brow, told him everything he needed to know.
He didn't bounce you because he felt sorry for you. Such a juicy high count and you made $30! Hell, the "gangsta" on 3rd base made $160 on the play. Was that $80 bet, and going in to the wallet for the crumbled bills, really what it appeared to be? How do you know he wasn't using Triple Zen with 4 side counts? Seems to me he got congratulated for his win, was going to get comped for his action, and you can't even pull off a 1-3 spread in a monster count.
Who is fooling who?
The first time
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Nov-2002 11:25:08 (#584)
We have to remember that for many who frequent this site, it is their first time in battle conditions. I remember my first time, betting $5 - $20 at the shoe games as the Hard Rock, and I was sure (after I won $100) that the heat was getting intense. It takes a lot of experience to know and understand the kinds of things you mentioned in your post.
There are many lessons for Phantom (and all of us) here:
1) Don't play through a shift change.
2) If you're going to count, make it worth your while (spread enough to make a difference).
3) Don't play too long in any one casino, espcially if you are in Vegas and there is a lot of choice.
4) Bosses have many tactics to confirm their suspicions.
5) Keeping your cool and having a solid act is a huge part of playing a winning game.
--Mayor
Re: The first time
Posted by ZOD on 11-Nov-2002 20:06:23 (#588)
For any experienced amateurs or pros:
Just out of curiosity, how often do you get enough heat that you have to make a hasty exit? And how often do you get backed off or outright barred? I checked my records for my last 1000 hours of play (mostly green chip play for roughly 3 years back) and I've left because of heat only a dozen or so times. I've only been asked not to play once, and never been barred. My only "act" is that I stay friendly and talkative most of the time and occassionally get "drunk." (And, of course, I don't move my lips while counting.) I guess that's why it's still a little unnerving each time it happens. Any comments?
ZOD
Re: The first time
Posted by branmuffin on 11-Nov-2002 22:23:53 (#590)
What kind of hourly average did you make over those 1000 hour?
What count do you use?
What games do you play?
What kind of spread do you use?
What was your hourly standard deviation?
How long are your playing sessions?
How often do you play in the same casino/shift?
Max bankroll drawdown?
Is your current BR just a bj bankroll and if so has it been depleted more than once ?
I find it rare where you can actually talk to someone about the nittygritty of real play.1000 hours ..thats a solid sample to say the least for you to get a good read on your play.I am sure that if you are an amatuer your BR and betspread has varied over that time frame but still any info would be helpful.
1000 hours ..thats alotta of blackjack .I play 2100 hours of poker my second year as a pro.
I am thinking about playing part-time 40 or so hours a month right now?
I guess this should be or could be a whole new thread..?
This question is also directed to other experienced players>>>
Regards
Lee
A few answers
Posted by ZOD on 12-Nov-2002 21:29:22 (#599)
A few answers:
I think of myself as about 2 steps below semi-pro. I don't rely on bj for household income. I have a dedicated br of 1200-1500 units or so (anything over I generally spend). 80% of my play is at 3 local casinos with 6D 5/6 pen S17 DOA RSA. Bet spread averages 1-10 (it varies depending which floor persons are on duty, sometimes up to 1-20). I have used HiLo and HiOpt I&II, but now I use KO (SO much easier while carrying on a conversation.) For the 1000 hours in question: My average session was 1.5 hours and my hourly average was 1.7 units. My largest downturn was 388 units.
I started my first br with 300 units from poker winnings (I played low stakes full time for 2 years.) Lost it in 3 months. Started br number 2 with 500 units and got really lucky (32 winning sessions in a row.) Since then, my graph looks a lot like Mayor's.
I honestly wouldn't want to play professionally, though I admire those who can. This way works for me. And if I ever decide to give it up, I can use the cash to send my daughter to college (not bad for a hobby.) I would be interested in hearing about some other real world results if anyone would care to share. Best...
ZOD
Re: A few answers
Posted by branmuffin on 12-Nov-2002 22:07:47 (#601)
ZOD:
Thanks for the timely and complete response.
You had what looks to me like great results.I assume your units are $10ish
Thats an awesome average for the game you described >you 've obviously thought alot about your a a game away from the table.
I'm down in Florida now moving from NJ about 4 years ago.
I am going to play in Tunica and Biloxi ...soon.Been reading everthing I can last few weeks.I am sticking w/HiLo now.... Wongs -1/+6 indicies.I've thought about a 5K BR w/ $10 units but I may bump it up to 10K w/bigger units to make it worthwile if i decide to put in 300-500 hours in next 6 months or so.
Problem is Hi-Lo is crap against SD and DD ..there are good SD and DD in Tunica and Biloxi(Copa)... so I've been looking at Halves or AO2.I am reading Carlson's book now.
Thanks for the great detailed info.Keep it Up!!
Regards, Lee
My weekend cruise "trip report"
Posted by darksun on 11-Nov-2002 16:33:53 (#585)
So I had a great time this weekend on my cruise, and a big part of it was the blackjack aboard the ship since it would be the first time I have ever played for real. It was a great experience, complete with ploppy stories and all.
First things first, the game quality was pretty poor: 6D, DA2, H17, no RSA, and CSM's. blah. There was one shoe game but they only offered it when every other table was full and it was a 10 dollar minimum. The only 5 dollar game had a "wheel of madness" attached to it, A one dollar side bet lets you spin the electronic wheel if you get a blackjack, paying you up to 1000 dollars. So when it came to choosing between a 5 dollar CSM table and flat betting, or a 10 dollar table and spreading conservatively, my 100 dollar bankroll for the trip chose the 5 dollar CSM. I stayed away from the wheel, naturally. These conditions are probably typical of all Royal Caribbean ships.
Overall I had a good time, although I couldn't go 5 minutes without someone telling me how to play because I am a young guy. "ho ho don't hit a 16 vs 7 son it's as good as won."
Ploppy Quote of the weekend (giving me advice)- "Like John Wayne said, you gotta know when to fold 'em, and you gotta know when to throw 'em away"
My performance was terrible, I made 3 basic strategy errors, so it is not as burned in as I thought it was. I also realized that I count very slow. Even though it was a CSM I figured I would try, just to see if I could do it, and I was very poor at it. Gotta practice more.
In the end, I ended up down 20 bucks (4 units). It stinks, but it's not bad for an educational experience.
-darksun
Re: My weekend cruise "trip report"
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 11-Nov-2002 17:10:07 (#586)
You got away with 16 reds......you did VERY well playing basic strategy and you had some fun doing it.
How do you get to Carnegy Hall?
Practice practice practice.........
Re: My weekend cruise "trip report"
Posted by darksun on 11-Nov-2002 17:26:58 (#587)
yeah it was quite thrilling. I was down to my last 4 chips and i rallied on 2 sessions. Lol I know it seems funny to consider a 20 dollar winning session a rally, but it was a lot of fun.
-darksun
Re: My weekend cruise "trip report"
Posted by ZOD on 11-Nov-2002 20:15:19 (#589)
And it gets to be even more fun when you improve your skills and start winning consistently. Practice on a computer until decisions are reflexive and counting is a breeze. THEN play for real and don't overbet your bankroll. Best of luck...
ZOD
2nd Step
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 12-Nov-2002 08:35:43 (#591)
Plan on finding a place that offers a real game.
In the meantime, practice - practice - practice.
Work on that basic strategy - you should have 0
errors per 100 hours of play.
Re: 2nd Step
Posted by The Mayor on 12-Nov-2002 10:02:36 (#592)
You said: "you should have 0 errors per 100 hours of play."
I don't know what an error is. If we learn basic strategy for a 6D H17 NDAS, game, but we are playing 6D S17 DAS, is this an error? If we fail to learn composition dependent basic strategy and hit 7-7 Vs. T in a single deck game, is this an error?
The truth is, if you always play the stiffs correctly, and double when you are supposed to, that's most of what the ploppies give up. You might read my essay "the real cost of mistakes in blackjack" -- we can play very poorly and still not hurt ourselves very much.
The mystique (and mythology) is that we must play errorlessly to win, the truth is that we can have tons of errors and still clean their clocks.
--Mayor
Errors are where you find them.
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 12-Nov-2002 10:20:20 (#593)
"I don't know what an error is."
An error is after you have made a decision, after further thought and study, that you should have taken some other action.
"If we learn basic strategy for a 6D H17 NDAS, game, but we are playing 6D S17 DAS, is this an error?"
Yes. Most 6D games include DAS, so your error was learning the incorrect basic strategy to begin with.
"If we fail to learn composition dependent basic strategy and hit 7-7 Vs. T in a single deck game, is this an error?"
Yes. 7-7 vs T in single deck is the most obvious SD compositon dependent play. You shouldn't need to know the entire composition dependent BS, but you should include this one play when playing SD.
The original poster stated he had made several errors in basic strategy.
I don't know what Basic strategy he was using, or how he determined he had made an error. All I know, if your money is in the circle, you have enough things to worry and think about without having to worry and second guess basic strategy.
Yes, Babe Ruth used to show up to the game, drunk and hungover, and still whacked the ball out of the stadium. However, if someone was paying me to hit home runs, I think I would at least show up sober.
Yes, Mistakes really don't cost you THAT much in the long run. But it is rather simple to eliminate that 'little' cost with very little effort.
But what do I know? I'm just a cranky old man.
Re: Errors are where you find them.
Posted by The Mayor on 12-Nov-2002 10:26:05 (#595)
This is such an interesting topic.
I had a respected professional get quite upset that I started telling the truth about errors. He said that if it ever got out to casinos just how poorly we could play and still have positive EV against them, they would get much tougher on us. I am talking about advantage play here, not just simple basic strategy.
All things considered, finding a better game with better penetration and rules is much more important than learning the specific Basic Strategy for that game. Advantage play means putting out a lot of money when the game favors the player, whether we should double or A-6 vs. 2 (single deck vs. multiple deck) is of three orders of magnitude of less importance than finding a shoe game with 5|6 penetration vs. one that is 4.5|6.
Nevertheless, I tend to learn these correct basic strategy plays too.
I appreciate your position, and I certainly would not want to encourage anyone to play with errors, I just believe that we focus too much on being able to play an errorless game, when the real money is in the table conditions.
--Mayor
Even more to the point
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 12-Nov-2002 11:03:15 (#596)
Penetration, rules, playing indices -- phooey!
The most important factor is putting the money on the table when the advantage calls for it.
A large enough spread (and a bankroll to support it) will overcome almost any obstacle. You have to get the big money in the circle when it is the right time, and IF you can do that consistently, you really don't have to worry about the rest. Of course, that is a mighty big IF.
Re: Even more to the point
Posted by The Mayor on 12-Nov-2002 11:12:52 (#597)
Yes, I agree with you. The bankroll to support a large spread and the willingness to put it on the table when required. Certainly, absolutely, this is the biggest error that most advantage players make. No question!
Best regards,
--Mayor
Re: 2nd Step
Posted by hammer on 12-Nov-2002 10:21:38 (#594)
Exactly mayor. AND the real issue is if you do not have the bankroll,
do not play at all,and go get some cash.
I'll tell you what an error is.
Posted by Capo de Capos on 12-Nov-2002 14:40:24 (#598)
Standing on 16 against a ten 17.
Re: I'll tell you what an error is.
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 12-Nov-2002 21:42:05 (#600)
16 v 10 @ >0 is not an error. As stated above, it is a big error when you have 10 units out there at +3TC to hit 16 v 10.
Then you have to figure in your cover playing, which is another matter. Take out a coin and flip it. Heads are cover, tails are proper play.
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