At one time, the website CardCounter.com held an active message forum with many contributors. When the previous site owner planned to shut down the site, he allowed us to archive the messages here at BlackjackInfo. They are formatted as they originally appeared, but no further comments on threads are permitted. If you want to discuss any of these topics, please do so at the BlackjackInfo Forums.
Has any one seen the Phantom007????
Posted by Learning to count on 26-Jul-2004 17:09:03 (#9506)
Yo Phantom 007, you've got mail!
No Mail Here....
Posted by phantom007 on 27-Jul-2004 09:45:49 (#9511)
Hello LTC! Did not receive any e-mail from you, unless it was disguised as "porn", "aluminum siding" or something of that nature. I am still "sporadically" around.
phantom007.
E-mail me the address I have for youmust be old. *NM*
Posted by Learning to count on 27-Jul-2004 12:48:20 (#9518)
Question about Uston SS
Posted by mylittlepony on 26-Jul-2004 18:54:14 (#9508)
Hi everybody, I was wondering if anybody could tell me how to implement the Uston SS in true count mode. I've read that in order to do this you start the initial running count at the pivot point (for six decks, I think the irc would be -24 so pivot point would be 0?) then divide the running count from there on by the number of decks left in the shoe. Is this true? If so, what would be the betting schedule for a true count of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc.? If not, how would I properly implement this? Thanks for all your replies!
SS Uston
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 27-Jul-2004 14:18:06 (#9519)
Take a look at the chart here for # per card.
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/counting/OSRating.htm
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Ja Qu Ki Ace
Uston SS 2 2 2 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
+12 -11
I would think your about -4 shy of being balanced per deck. If you start at 0 pivot should be +4, or you can start at -4 then pivot would be 0.
To discover your expected advantage:
http://members.rogers.com/blackjackprofessional/page03.htm
5 Card +.64
4 Card +.52
6 Card +.45
3 Card +.44
2 Card +.37
7 Card +.30 Total = 2.72% / 12 = .23 per + number. Take the house edge off this number, let's say its -.47 You'd need +3 RC for single and TC for multi deck. to have an advantage.
Proper Kelly would be:
+3 = .25 x BR
+4 = .50 x BR
+5 = .75 x BR
+6 =1.00 x BR
+7 =1.25 x BR
+8 =1.50 x BR
Develop a spread for that and you're done. This is very simplified, but it should give you an idea or more questions. Math guru's step in....
NO BUENO!
Posted by zengrifter on 30-Jul-2004 13:59:53 (#9555)
Robo's advice (as well as your own idea) - that of starting with a different IRC - will NOT cut it. To convert USS to a TC system will require recalcing the indices for TC. zg
Uston SS
Posted by mylittlepony on 02-Aug-2004 16:21:26 (#9588)
Have these already been calculated somewhere? It's not that I'm too lazy to do it myself, it's just I'm HORRIBLE at math and if it's already been done by somebody else, that would be great :)
Heat
Posted by oldnewbie on 27-Jul-2004 07:48:31 (#9510)
Any word on which casinos in LV have the worst reputation for backing off players? Any word on the best? How about a top/bottom ten list?
Ask Wong
Posted by Sonny on 27-Jul-2004 11:46:37 (#9516)
Sounds like you're looking for the local burn joints. Check out Stan's newsletter:
https://secure.bj21.com/order/order1.htm
For $12 you will know all about the games in Vegas, and elsewhere.
Obviously the heat will depend on your betting level and spread. Can you tell us a little more about your style?
-Sonny-
Heat
Posted by oldnewbie on 27-Jul-2004 12:36:57 (#9517)
Thanks for the advice about the newsletter. I'm going to Vegas in December, so I guess it's time to study up.
I'll be using the KO system, spreading 1-10 ($5.00 to $50.00). I don't expect any heat at that level, but you guys have got me paranoid! I just wondered if the days of the counter are over. I'm not trying to make a living at this, just maybe pay for the trip and another in the future.
Thanks again.
Play DT
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 27-Jul-2004 14:23:35 (#9521)
and spread as you will. Feel the heat and move out of the sun. Repeat until done. Come back after dark to take a quick stab at it. By the end of the week you'll have a routine down. You'd be able to write an article for BJ21 when you get back.
Rob
you'll be fine
Posted by John on 27-Jul-2004 17:43:30 (#9522)
I think they will let you play forever at those stakes. You won't need any camouflage either. You start getting backed off when your bet goes over $100 to $200 dollars. I say count to your hearts content and take advantage of everything you can. Double down on those soft 19s, too when the count calls for it.
Thanks, guys, I feel a lot better now. *NM*
Posted by oldnewbie on 27-Jul-2004 18:27:40 (#9523)
Hate to be the needle that bursts a bubble...
Posted by shaggy18vw on 27-Jul-2004 19:49:34 (#9525)
But Downtown ain't what she used to be. You will probably find the best game with the least heat at Golden Nugget. They have 2 $10 min single deck games. If you play those levels at El Cortez, Western and Gold Spike you'll be okay too. Las Vegas Club used to be the place. They had many single deck tables. Under new ownership they are trying to keep up with the Jones' by offering the same crap Fitzgeralds and Fremont offer. The 4 Queens still has a couple tables of single deck, but beware. A friend of mine received extreme heat and was booted in 15 minutes while betting against the count. Granted they were empty (at 7:00 am) i.e. don't play in the morning.
The big spenders said you don't need betting camoflauge, I disagree. Just don't jump your bets up and you will be fine.
bet spread allowed
Posted by Gibbs on 28-Jul-2004 02:28:57 (#9526)
Will a $10-$40 bet spread at single deck get me kicked out of LVC, El Cortez, and Western?
Can you get away with it?
Posted by Sonny on 28-Jul-2004 11:27:41 (#9528)
> Will a $10-$40 bet spread at single deck get me kicked out of
> LVC, El Cortez, and Western?
It depends on your act. I play $5-$40 ($2-$40 where allowed) and I have never been backed off or barred at any of those places. I have gotten some heat at the LVC, but nothing that cramped my style. I had to cut an El Cortez session short once, but they have never given me any trouble over big winning (or losing) sessions. Whoever is on the other end of their red phone (I love how the cage uses both phones at the same time!) seems pretty cool.
So, to answer your question, I would say definately maybe.
And I don't think that downtown is not as good anymore. Sure, the LVC has opened a few "liberal" blackjack tablse (SF21) and has fewer regular tables, and the Horseshoe is dead but there are still opportunities on Fremont Street.
The Plaza has changed their DD games to S17 DAS. Use the $25 matchplay coupon from their funbook to make some good money here once you find decent penetration.
Fitzie's has also been DAS for a while now. Their cutting/burning procedure is a bit different than most places, so a sloppy dealer can easily flash you a card or two by accident. I like to Wong into a DD or 6D game there when I can. If you need a break from blackjack you can use their $22 for $20 buy-in at roulette to kill some time and maybe make a buck or two (but probably not more than that).
And don't forget the magic of the Speaks Brothers band!
-Sonny-
Sonny's comment
Posted by The Speaks Brothers Band on 14-Jul-2005 11:27:26 (#13516)
Thanks for the comment in your post about us. We love to play and will until we can not no more. Thanks again
The Speaks Brothers Band
That f***ing Speaks Bros...
Posted by zengrifter on 14-Jul-2005 17:48:34 (#13522)
...loud, obnoxious - when my favorite side bet was finally reduced to one table only on Fri-Sat night at a certain downtown dive, I would endure them weekly. Finally I resolved "never again without ear plugs... BUT, I got lucky - the side bet table is now a 6D/65% pene, so I need not play it anymore! YEAH! zg
SWEET!!!!!
Posted by Sonny on 14-Jul-2005 21:54:19 (#13528)
Yeah, I'm a sucker for classic rock. You guys should have a website or something so people can find out about your gigs. I know you guys are regulars downtown, but I never know when to expect you.
Don't worry about the Grifter, he's just sore that Fitzie's dumped their Match 20 tables and installed those BJ Switch layouts. Hey Grif, you know they have a similar side bet at your favorite joint downtown...you know, the place with the secret S17 back pit and the childishly simple shuffle. Do you know what the payout schedule looks like? I only caught a glimpse of the table on my way out last week. I'd like to know a little more about it before I head back. It probably isn't as lucrative as tracking aces there though.
-Sonny-
I misread the post...
Posted by zengrifter on 15-Jul-2005 13:18:44 (#13534)
I didn't realize it was the Speaks Bros posting, sorry guys.
Sonny, email me direct for the info you seek. zg
Hey Grif, you've got mail =) *NM*
Posted by Sonny on 17-Jul-2005 12:32:16 (#13540)
Funbooks
Posted by Gibbs on 28-Jul-2004 12:12:56 (#9529)
Thanks for the information.
I was wondering how to get a funbook from a casino. Do I just have to sign up for the players card?
Funbooks
Posted by Sonny on 28-Jul-2004 17:34:50 (#9535)
> I was wondering how to get a funbook from a casino. Do I just have to sign up
> for the players card?
Most of the time yes. Often you will find ads for funbooks is local magazines. Sometimes you will have to redeem them at the slot club booth, although at the Plaza you can redeem them directly at the cage without a player's card. At Fitzie's you can just swipe your slot card in a kiosk and print out some coupons whenever you want.
-Sonny-
Red phone
Posted by LVBear584 on 28-Jul-2004 13:09:43 (#9532)
Whoever is on the other end of their red phone (I love how the cage uses both phones at the same time!) seems pretty cool.
One call goes to surveillance, the other to the pit.
The bat-phone
Posted by Sonny on 28-Jul-2004 17:29:23 (#9534)
> One call goes to surveillance, the other to the pit.
Yeah, I figured the red phone was either surveillance or the Bat-Cave. I guess they're sort of the same thing. I just didn't think that the guy in surveillance would be so laid-back. I thought they were supposed to be hard-arses about winning players and large stacks of greens. I guess they've mellowed out some. On the other hand, they've probably drawn devil-horns all over the photos of me they took.
-Sonny-
Surveillance is a netural party in this instance
Posted by LVBear584 on 28-Jul-2004 18:59:54 (#9537)
The call to surveillance is so that they can verify that the cashier has added up the chips correctly, and is paying out the correct amount of money. Much like some stores will have a second cashier "verify" payouts of several thousand dollars. I suspect that most of the time, when it's under a thousand dollars or so, the Cortez surveillance operator just says, "Yeah, go ahead" without really paying attention, much like a pit critter who is supposed to verify buy-ins or color ups, but really just goes through the motions because "it's procedure."
Cortez?
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 28-Jul-2004 20:57:01 (#9538)
How the hell do you get away with those kinds of bets in the El Cortez? They douched me in under 15 minutes in there. But in the GN I raped them for a few hours straight. Guess different styles and looks will pass or fail in different houses.
Here's one way.
Posted by Tom on 28-Jul-2004 21:11:33 (#9539)
Quit moving your mouth when counting!!!!!
Just chew gum! *NM*
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 29-Jul-2004 11:14:17 (#9547)
Not me
Posted by LVBear584 on 28-Jul-2004 22:40:36 (#9541)
How the hell do you get away with those kinds of bets in the El Cortez?
I had been invited to never come back to the Cortez so many times that I finally gave up on the dump. I have not played there in years, except once a few months ago on a shift where I'd never been hassled. However, the pen was so poor from two dealers I didn't stick around and waste my time. "Brown action" -- LOL!
Two schools of camouflage
Posted by Sonny on 29-Jul-2004 11:34:52 (#9548)
> How the hell do you get away with those kinds of bets in the El Cortez? They
> douched me in under 15 minutes in there.
Here are two schools of thought on this:
1) Be the party animal of the casino. Scream when you win, cry when you lose, drink constantly, joke around with all the players, talk to the pit bosses and dealers, ask for comps at the $3 table. If you act like a drunk frat boy then you will get away with much more. Also, talking to the pit is a great way to distract them. This is the standard approach.
2) Be invisible. Again, here are two ways to do this:
a. Hit and run paperboy style. Unfortunately, you will not be playing very many hands using this style. However, on Fremont street you can easily make the rounds all night long.
b. Make the pit not WANT to watch you. Make rude or offensive jokes to the pit bosses, ask too many very personal questions ("How much do you get paid?" - ask this in front of the dealer!, "Is your boss an a-hole?", "What's your wife look like?", "What kind of car do you drive?" - this is a good one to use after a big losing session!), ask them if they want to hang out later, wink at the female bosses, etc. Make them uncomfortable around you and they will leave you alone.
-Sonny-
Plaza... $25??
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 29-Jul-2004 10:45:19 (#9546)
The coups have been $5 every time I've gotten a book, has this changed?
-Felix
Plaza... $25?
Posted by Sonny on 29-Jul-2004 11:41:45 (#9549)
> The coups have been $5 every time I've gotten a book, has this changed?
>
> -Felix
I got a book two months ago that had a "$5-$25 matchplay" coupon. I used the ad in the magazine from my hotel room. I hung around the cage for a while and traded a few of the other coupons (Pai-Gow, free drink, free slot spin) with other people for their BJ matchplays. You would be surprised how many people don't even use them!
-Sonny-
P.S.- Save all those lousy "free drink" coupons and give them to the homeless people on your way to the Western. They appreciate them and it doesn't cut into your EV...plus they will think twice about mugging you next time.
A little vacation: gone 07/28 - 08/08
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Jul-2004 11:35:46 (#9515)
Yes, and I'll be doing a bit of that other thing too, though not in Las Vegas.
The poll and podium are a few days early, so I can leave tomorrow.
--Mayor
Have Fun
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 27-Jul-2004 14:20:18 (#9520)
and have a good excuse if they catch you. ;> Aces n Faces!!
Eliot Shines
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 28-Jul-2004 13:02:33 (#9531)
"When we encourage our friends to avoid losing games, is not too far from encouraging them to live better lives. When we encourage our friends to be advantage players, we are helping them see a new view of the world in which they control their own destiny, respect themselves and others, and take full responsibility for all consequences of their actions. We all live in an abundant world full of opportunities. We can all be winners."
EJ
I must say you really shine this month Eliot. Your intensity and understanding tell me that you took time to write this, and were in the right frame of mind before your holidays. I have been the mentor in many cases like this, and there is nothing more fulfiling than giving people a glimpse of heaven through the 52 cards or cybercards of life.
A Job Well Done,
Shine on You Crazy Diamond,
Rob
Thanks! (blush) *NM*
Posted by The Mayor on 28-Jul-2004 14:16:08 (#9533)
cruisin'
Posted by gross on 28-Jul-2004 12:28:47 (#9530)
Thought you might like to here about the gambling boat cruise I took last week out of Port Canaveral Florida. My first and last experience with this kind of cruise. I understand there are two operations at this port. I went on the bigger, better known one. All blackjack games used csm's (yukk!). At my table the machine broke down twice with delays of nearly and hour. But, even so, the PC would not let the dealer shuffle and twice I had good hands which were not played out because of the equipment breakdown (very frustrating). Since you are 3 miles out in the ocean you can't leave. After searching 7 decks of the ship I did find at the very bottom of the ship some video poker machines with playable payoff tables. All the others were sucker machines. The crew is helpful and polite and on a wednesday night the boat was busy but enjoyable. They offer a free "deli" buffet, and free drinks while gambling. The waitresses are only wearing pantyhose and blouses and were attractive and friendly. The bj rules are s17, das, doa, 3:2 bj however anytime the dealer picks up a card it goes back into the csm. One interesting twist - the dealer has to peak at his hole card and doesn't check when a 10 is showing until after the hand. I asked what happens if a player doubles or splits and the dealer is found to have a bj after the hand is played. He replied that 1/2 of the bet would be returned. This didn't happen at my table while I was playing, so You may want to confirm this in the unlikely event you should choose to play bj there. At the end of the cruise, we were told we would be allowed to play three more hands and then we would be finished. This created a tournament atmosphere where some players were betting small to maintain their winnings and others were betting large to try to salvage the night. I pushed on my last bet and left a 35$ loser. I considered this a victory with the csm's in use which I would never otherwise play except for being trapped for 5 hours with no real options. There were plenty of game tables with varying limits down to $5. It was educational and I liked the mandatory limit on time played via the international water requirement. The boat was clean, attractive, the food was good and drinks were fine, live entertainment in the bars - but I can only go back if they toss the csm's. I believe 6 decks were in the csm but I never saw more than about 1/2 deck on the table at any time. Obviously, penetration is a non-issue. It was nice to relax and not keep count - but this meant basically flat betting with minimum bets. Some people had players cards - I didn't bother after seeing the csm's as I knew I would't be back. I have no idea what the card will do for you. If anyone hears that the csm's are gone I would be interested in going again. Does anyone know if the cruises elsewhere in Florida are the same?
Sea escape out of ft lauderdale
Posted by Learning to count on 29-Jul-2004 20:38:56 (#9552)
no csm all hand shuffled 20-25 tables 5-100, 10-200, 25-500. Late surrendar and stand on s17. florida residents are free on mondays. $35 cruise fee normally. no heat! The spread sux but you can wong in. No midshoe on the green tables. This so far is the best in florida. There is a new boat or I should say ship in ST Pete. SO far no info on the games. Opens in august. Good luck!
This month's poll
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 28-Jul-2004 18:10:27 (#9536)
That is a good poll...
You know what's funny? I have done EVERY ONE of those things after losing!
Me too *NM*
Posted by John on 29-Jul-2004 03:53:35 (#9542)
Jack Binion casinos
Posted by ZOD on 28-Jul-2004 21:34:09 (#9540)
To all:
Historically, how has the sweat factor been in the Jack Binion (now Harrahs owned) casinos? I'm curious as to the rules, penetration and overall casino experience, as well as the tolerance to counters. Love to hear some personal impressions or anecdotes.
Thanks...
ZOD
LV vs. Tunica.....Binion to Harrah's....
Posted by phantom007 on 30-Jul-2004 08:46:29 (#9554)
Since I only get to LV 1-2x/year, I cannot really proclaim to be a Downtown Horseshoe expert. Being a "monthly" Tunica visitor, my knowledge is a little more current. But since you asked "historically", I will respond with my experience and knowledge.
LV PRE-HARRAH's:
Their motto went something like "The Place for Gamblers". Back when I was a "Crap's Pro", I often made special trips Downtown just to play at The Shoe, which usually had 20x Odds, and later, 100x Odds, back when the Tight Asses on the strip would only give Double Odds. Single-deck abounded. They would back ANY bet. Several stories bounce around the boards regarding those who have won AND lost $1M bets there. Food was good. Rooms were cheap.
LV POST-HARRAH's:
SUX! Lots of SD, if you like 6:5. Lots of 6D, if you like to "work" while counting. A couple of decent DD tables, if you do not mind waiting in line for your chance to play. Food choices have diminished. New motto should be: "The Place for Ploppies!"
TUNICA PRE-HARRAH's:
Binion's Horseshoe was great! Lots of good SD and DD, and usually a few $10 ($5 when slow) min. BJ tables, so that those of us who struggle by on 6-Figures a year can afford to play. All hotel rooms are "Suites". Great steakhouse, Great buffet, and a "New Age-Type" Cafe that is quite simply GAY! (They DECORATE your food)!
TUNICA "POST"-HARRAH's:
"Post" is in italics since one Dealer told me recently that the transition is still occuring. Whatever, Jack Binion's picture is still used in mailings and billboard advertising. Rooms and Restaurants so far have remained the same (wish they would change the Gay place to one where they simply FRY things).
In May of this year, Penetration acutely TANKED! Down to 50% for both SD and DD. A Dealer told me they were only supposed to go 1/2-way through the deck. Then suddenly in June, it was better, likely 60/75% for SD/DD.
Comps have also tightened. Last year, for my B-day, they sent me a coupon for a FREE STEAKHOUSE DINNER for 2!; AND a Free night in a Suite! SWEET! This year, I got a Coupon good for $20. off a room, Mon.-Thurs. only, and a Free Buffet for one. Happy PH#cking B-Day!
Certainly, there are several other H.S. properties involved in this transition, but of these I have no knowledge nor info.
Hope this answers a few of your questions.
phantom007.
Thanks
Posted by ZOD on 01-Aug-2004 17:01:29 (#9568)
Phantom,
Appreciate the response. The question I posed originally arose after a martini induced conversation with two friends (both old and dear) who happen to work for casinos on the corporate level. The debate was whether or not counters are actually good for the house. Both of them know about my blackjack hobby.
Their argument came from the bottom line, of course. Casinos make money with their edge; anyone taking the edge away should not be allowed to play. While they both agreed that counting wasn't cheating, they were worried that the 20,000 counters out there would eat up all the profits in no time. Same old argument, blah, blah, blah.
I argued that the actual number of real counters was less than 10% of their estimate and that we should actually be catered to as ambassadors of the game. I suggested that they relax the rules a bit and INVITE us to beat them. Market the game by offering counting courses to the public and giving advice on which rules are better. Proclaim loudly "NO 6:5 games; NO CSMs". Hell, list the SCORE right there on the table! Do everything they can to get the wannabes and their dead money in the door, just like the WSOP. I bet them that the take would rise, not fall, and that interest generated would spill over into other table games as well. I challenged them to change their practices and their philosophy and monitor the numbers.
Needless to say, I went a little too far after that sixth or seventh martini. They told me that what I was asking for was a Jack Binion casino with a big sign out front that said "Counters Welcome--Let Us Teach You How", alluding to Horseshoes being known more for gambling than "gaming." Seeing as I have never been to a Binion's (except in Vegas), I thought I'd ask about the general feel of the place--if it seemed to have a more relaxed attitude toward table games, counters and gamblers in general. After reading your response and several private ones, it sounds like the Horseshoes would be a great place to begin a blackjack renaissance.
Thanks again for the response. Let me know if you see a big sign out front of the Tunica 'Shoe.
Best...
ZOD
On This Note......
Posted by phantom007 on 02-Aug-2004 07:55:30 (#9578)
Several years ago, one of the Tunica stores actually had a well-known BJ personality, I believe Frank Schoblete, put on a gambling seminar, which covered many areas (craps, roulette, etc.) and CC'ing!
Either this was simply promotional, they did not care, or possibly a trap...all graduates now in Griffin.
"Sorry Sir, no more BJ. You are a graduate of the CC'ing class we put on 2 years ago."
phantom007.
Trackjack vs CBJN
Posted by Jonah on 29-Jul-2004 09:49:41 (#9543)
Quick question for you all...
I've been considering a subscription to either Trackjack or CBJN so that I can get an idea of which casinos I'd like to try out when I go to Las Vegas in a few weeks.
Can anyone run down the plusses and minuses of each service?
Thanks in advance
J
Yeah, get CJBN
Posted by John on 29-Jul-2004 10:40:31 (#9544)
I've got trackjack. Get CJBN. Trackjack isn't up-to-date. Actually, I don't know a lot about CJBN but I'm saying that it couldn't be worse than trackjack.
CJBN CBJN CNN CNBJ CNBC MSNBC
Posted by John on 29-Jul-2004 10:41:43 (#9545)
I'm dyslexic I think.
CBJN
Posted by Boston_Jaxel on 29-Jul-2004 12:52:38 (#9550)
I purchased CBJN at the beginning of the month, and I am going to LV for the first time this week end. I will let you know how acurate it is. By deflaut it is sent in a PDF format, but you can request it text. I found the text version to better becuase I can put into a spread sheet and sort it by house edge, pen, table limits etc. And oh yea quickly sort out all the rows with 6:5 and CSMs. From this I have made "hit list" of the top shoe and pitch games. Again I don't know acurate it is yet, it's just basically a starting point.
CBJN is available in Excel
Posted by Al Rogers on 29-Jul-2004 12:58:24 (#9551)
I found the text version to better because I can put into a spread sheet and sort it by house edge, pen, table limits etc.
Quarterly or annual subscribers to CBJN have access to CBJN in an Excel Speadsheet.
Al Rogers
Al@bj21.com
CBJN or Both
Posted by Hal Jordan on 02-Aug-2004 11:26:34 (#9583)
I have found Trackjack to often be missing information. There have been several instances where a game has been changed for a month or more, yet it still appears unchanged on Trackjack (I am speaking of Vegas games in particular). I think Trackjack gets you into the ballpark, but it does not always have the correct teams on their schedule. See what you think of CBJN. I have come to the conclusion that it is probably worth the price to own both, but there will still never be a replacement for walking through the casino yourself.
HJ
computers
Posted by pink chips on 30-Jul-2004 01:52:39 (#9553)
where is the best place to buy a counting computer
with foot switches ?
Computers are illegal eveywhere in the us
Posted by Learning to count on 30-Jul-2004 20:03:23 (#9556)
and canada. If you cant use your brain then get a regular job. Dont be stupid stay away from such nonsense.
Where to get a counting computer
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 30-Jul-2004 20:04:29 (#9557)
Go pay a visit to the Wizard of Oz. He can also fit you out with a heart and courage if necessary.
?
Posted by pink chips on 31-Jul-2004 22:03:37 (#9559)
can someone tell me some information i don't know i already use 1 but im after a better one
I don't think anyone here is into that
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 01-Aug-2004 15:12:26 (#9566)
Using a computer is one of the worst value plays you can make. You are risking a prison sentence and lifelong banning from all casinos to do something you can do in your mind anyway. It's not a logical thing to do. Please rethink your desire to use this technology and you will be able to get plenty of valuable advantage play advice here.
Important info
Posted by John on 02-Aug-2004 04:09:23 (#9575)
At my last backoff, the pit boss came around to me when he tapped me on the shoulder and asked to see my SHOES. After he saw them, then he told me I couldn't play blackjack anymore. Just a little newsflash for those of you who use computers.
Black Market Sellers
Posted by pink chips on 03-Aug-2004 22:54:02 (#9618)
if anyone is selling bj computers im interested in buying them for top $ as collector's items
my email is trueonemillion@hotmail.com
cheers
black jack tables
Posted by cassandraeidyia on 01-Aug-2004 00:17:17 (#9560)
So, I have a questions about black jack tables.
I have this habit of sitting out a round or two when I have had bad cards dealt
consequtively.
Never did I have a problem with this until another player complained about me
to the casino manager recently at a casino in New York state.
The casino manager thus told me that I cannot sit out of any games and
have to play every game as long as i am sitting at that table.
My question is if this is a rule of blackjack tables? or does this
vary with casino.
I suspect that there is no such rule because no dealers have ever said that
I cannot sit out of games.
Any help or comments would be greatly appreciated!
you ran into "that person"
Posted by John on 01-Aug-2004 14:33:42 (#9564)
You know the person that has a problem with everything. The one who blames his "bad luck" on everyone else. That guy didn't know how to play blackjack and felt better about things when he was blaming you. No, this isn't a rule in blackjack. If you are counter, you may be cautious about who is observing you, though. Most of us, counters want to be virtually invisible so you may re-think your strategy. If you only count a few times per year, then I wouldn't worry about it because the event isn't likely to happen too often. I can't speak from experience, though since I don't ever sit out hands. If you want to sit out hands, go to the bathroom or something. Actually, I have done this and the ploppies don't mind it much. If you play enough blackjack, you will run into these people every now and then.
There was a woman once who didn't want me to sit down at the table because the cards were finally running good. She was very scarey so I went to another table. I
sitting out/wonging in or out...
Posted by gehrig on 01-Aug-2004 15:06:41 (#9565)
once at the stratosphere on a dd game, a backcounter wonged into a deck at a plus 2 true count. he received a snapper. immediately the pitstiff and dealer comiserated with me... the 'stiff said: "that guy took your blackjack". that added miles to my cover.
i'd likely say something like: this guy only plays when all the little cards come out...is he one of those guys who can memorize the cards ? to wit, don't wong into my table 'cause i'll blow your cover while enhancing my own. same as i don't jump into a game where i detect another counter. that does neither of us any good. and if you can't detect another counter faster than surveillance and/or pit game supervision with their other duties, you belong back in "triple a" ball.
SEATS are for PLAYERS ONLY!
Posted by phantom007 on 01-Aug-2004 15:24:54 (#9567)
I have seen this sign on more than one BJ table over the years.
As far as a "Rule", I do not know, but it makes since that they would not want you to order Delivery from Domino's on your cell phone, then have it delivered to your BJ table, then sit there and eat it. Since casino's are private clubs, certain rules they can "make up" as long as these rules are not otherwise discriminatory.
Conversely, I have never seen a cute little 21 y.o. Blond sitting by her 60 y.o. BJ-Playing Barney-losing "uncle" be asked to leave the table for another player. However, I have often seen, especially during peak times, Non-Player(s) sitting by a Red-Chip player be asked to vacate their seat for players...seems to happen most often to young blacks, both male and female.
Hmmmmmm!? ACLU anyone!
Certainly it is common for both Pro's and Ploppies to Sit out a hand or two...the Pro's of course, when the Count has tanked...the Ploppies when they have lost several in a row, someone left the table, someone entered the table, or the dice from the craps table next over just hit him/her in the hear.
As to your post, I had a similar experience playing SF21 in LV 2 years ago. I played two hands in neutral and Pos. Cts., dropping to one hand in Neg. Cts. After about an hour of doing this, PC came over and said "I had to play two hands throughout that deck". She did not answer when I asked "what if I only have enough $ for one hand".
SOLUTION........of course........BEER!
By now, I was already 3/4th tanked. Start with 2 hands, press up when the Ct. was Pos., and GO PEE when the Ct. dropped. I had been and continued to consume beer at a rate to make every 5 minute bathroom breaks not only believable, but OFTEN needed!
Did not walk away a big winner that session, but got lots of free beer.
phantom007.
BJ Math for Dummies?
Posted by TwuntyWun on 01-Aug-2004 11:30:04 (#9561)
I do not have a great math mind. Although I am pretty bright and can learn most things easily, math is more difficult for me. I have never been driven to get past that before. My game is now progressing to the point that I really need to understand more of the math of it.
Can anyone (Eliot?) recommend some good self-study books to help me learn? I have never taken a Probability, Statistics, or Calculus course, and have forgotten almost all of the algebra that I learned when I was a kid, so the approach needs to be basic and simple! Am I hoping for too much?
Thanks,
TW
Suggestions
Posted by HiNoon on 01-Aug-2004 12:47:37 (#9562)
On the left hand side of the screen, there's a list of links, third from the bottom is a "Reading List" link.
There are enough books there to keep you happy for a long time.
It's a misconception that the math behind counting is "hard" math. The fundamental mechanics of Hi-Lo involves the ability to add and subtract 1. On a basic level, you can count cards effectively adding and subtracting the number 1. If you count each card as it comes out of the deck, the count in your head goes someting like this, "3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, -1, -2, -1...." and so on. It doesn't change. This isn't calculus...it's addition and subtraction...and, every now and then, you need to adjust with division to get your "true count" if you're playing a multi deck game. Unbalanced systems take even that conversion out of the mix.
The "hard" of counting cards is the self control and the dedication to learning to count multiple cards at a time ( to make a non-math analogy, counting several cards at once is like reading a word instead of a letter.) , learning to count accurately very quickly, and learning to us that count to adjust basic strategy. None of those things are "math"....they are practice and practice.
I'm not a math-minded person either...approach it like it's a new language.
Good luck...the mechanics behind counting aren't that hard...but having the dedication to develop the skill can be very hard. Take it slow. Don't play in casinos with real money until you're confident enough that you can watch a card game on TV in a crowded sports-bar, while flirting with the bartender or waitress, and know the balance of the remaining deck.
practice. practice. practice.
don't understand
Posted by John on 01-Aug-2004 14:25:04 (#9563)
I'm not sure why you need to know more about probability and statistics. I guess it helps to understand it a little but unless you want to become the greatest bj player that ever lived, I would think that one or two bj books is enough. Actually, the mathematics of bj is pretty complex. Have you read through Peter Griffin's Theory of Blackjack? I've had 5 years of college mathematics and couldn't understand a lot of it. If you really want the math of it, that is the book but it won't really help you make any money. If you want to make money, read about about casino surveillance and casino management and learn what makes pit bosses tick.
A slight addition/rewording
Posted by HiNoon on 01-Aug-2004 19:23:28 (#9569)
John is absolutely right,
The math involved with the game of blackjack get very complex...particularly the math of determining odds, playing strategies, and the like.
We (math minded and non math-minded) should all remember and be thankfull that there are people out there who have done that extensive number-crunching so that we don't have to. People like Stanford Wong have beautifully worked the difficult math into something accessible and approachable...People like Eliot who have dozens of essays that take the math-mystery out of the numbers, and put them into laymans terms.
The math behind it all *is* complicated. Fortunately, executing the resulting strategies are far less so.
Thanks to all of you math-minded folk out there who have given us such workable systems!
I should add
Posted by John on 02-Aug-2004 04:02:40 (#9574)
Twentywun,
I am not sure where you are in your skills. Are you having difficulty on the tables ? Not earning enough ? I would suggest that you get qfit's CVCX and CVDATA at the qfit.com website. These programs will help you make more money because they can tell you what your optimal spread for nearly any particular game. I apologize if I was too harsh. It does seem like their is a wealth of mathematics that can be applied to bj. It is very difficult to apply any kind of probability or odds to a bj game while the game is in progress. Also, I can't remember who it was but a famous bj player once figured out a technique that would enable him to know every single last card remaining in a single deck of cards. He decided to show his friends his new technique and he was accurate down to the card and suit. Then his friend asked him, "ok, you got a 9 and a 7 and then dealer is showing a 10, do you hit or stand. " He replied, "I have no idea." It went something like that. It was funny because he was using his toes, his stomach muscles, and everything else to keep track of these cards but he had no idea what to do with this information. I think I read this in "World's Greatest Bj Book".
Snyders 7 duckboy 3 count *NM*
Posted by suicyco maniac on 02-Aug-2004 04:11:56 (#9576)
Excuse me..."Snyders folly"
Posted by suicyco maniac on 02-Aug-2004 04:37:02 (#9577)
The story is over on bjfonline.com SM
AAAH! Don't say that!
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 02-Aug-2004 08:36:39 (#9580)
Oh no. Ever since I read that article, every time I'm in the casino and I see someone who resembles a duck, I can't get "7 duckboy 3" out of my head. Screws up my counting. If I ever meet anyone named Farley, I'd better leave.
May your reach exceed your grasp.
Posted by TwuntyWun on 02-Aug-2004 16:36:11 (#9589)
Thanks again to HiNoon and to John,
I think I answered some of your questions in my response to HiNoon above re: my level of play.
As for two books being more than enough, I guess I must be a) an overachiever or b) exceptionally dense :o) as I have already read at least 8 and am still wanting to learn more. Now--have I understood everything I read? Not even close. Griffin makes me dizzy and I believe myself to be incapable of grasping it all without an understanding of the basic concepts. And, while I certainly acknowledge and appreciate Don's contributions in BJA, and have learned *much* from it, I also find it to be quite choppy and confusing in some areas. I finally grasp something, and then a few chapters later, in another essay, I read that what he *once* believed and presented in a previous chapter, after further study and evaluation, is not the whole story, etc.
I own BJRM and don't use it as often as I should. I am grateful to Griffin, Schlesinger, Wong, and all the other website hosts (Thanks, Eliot!) & authors I have read as well as the posters on sites like this. I also acknowledge and agree with you that the math is complex. But I don't accept that because others already understand it all and have boiled various parts of it down for people like me means I should not attempt to understand it all!
I am grateful for your reaction to my question, because it has helped me to clarify my goals and reasons for pursuing them. I am pretty determined to learn the math concepts myself and not rely completely on the Masters for spoon feeding me what they have determined I need to know. I would guess that Wong & Schlesinger would be among the first to encourage such an endeavor. Their contributions have been a gold mine for many, but they have also spawned a generation of counters who are happy to have had someone else do all the work for them and are content to simply reap the rewards with little *real* understanding. I have been among this group, and I'm looking to reach higher.
I recall a blessing that goes something like, "May your reach exceed your grasp." That's where I'm heading with this.
Thanks,
TW
Thanks, More info...
Posted by TwuntyWun on 02-Aug-2004 16:06:42 (#9587)
Thanks, HiNoon. Your words of advice are certainly accurate & should be of great use to a new counter. I guess I should have been more specific rather than simply stating "my game has now progressed to the point that..."
I have been counting for over a year. I have no trouble with the actual counting/playing/chatting/being aware of my surroundings/ordering drinks, etc. I learned recently that I can backcount two almost-full 6D tables simultaneously, which was a very cool discovery. (Now, if I could just learn to do that without looking so obvious, I might be able to do something with it.)
What I want to be able to do now is to analyze my game and find how I can make it stronger, and to analyze games available to me to find the best way of taking advantage, etc. I want to understand Co-Variance, Certainty Equivalents, etc. Through experience & necessity I have learned about Standard Deviation, N0, variance, and such. I feel I need to go deeper now and without a background in math, I am finding it difficult.
Thanks,
TW
The next level *LINK*
Posted by Sonny on 02-Aug-2004 20:06:39 (#9596)
> I have been counting for over a year. I have no trouble with the actual
> counting/playing/chatting/being aware of my surroundings/ordering drinks,
> etc. I learned recently that I can backcount two almost-full 6D tables
> simultaneously, which was a very cool discovery. (Now, if I could just learn
> to do that without looking so obvious, I might be able to do something with
> it.)
All serious counter will reach the point you are at. You have learned the necessary skills and can execute them in a casino environment. There are many directions to branch off from this point.
Many players will focus on their game and learn methods to become an even better player. They may learn more indices, try shuffle tracking or ace sequencing, or work out new acts that will allow them a greater bet spread.
Other players will begin to focus on the math stuff. This includes bankroll and bet sizing, risk of ruin analysis, EVs for different games (or playing styles), etc. It sounds like you are in this group. Since you already have some software, that is the easiest way to compare games. I have a spreadsheet that has the stats for all the different games I have ever seen. I have different pages for different numbers of decks and sections for different rules and bet spreads. I track the EV, STD, ROR, N0 and much more for each game so I can easily see which games are worth the most to me. Although Wonging into a great 6D game with a $5-$40 spread is nice, it's not worth nearly as much as a standard 2D game with a $3-$35 play-all approach (for roughly the same risk). This is good to know.
I think your search for mathematical understanding is a very natural progression that all serious players eventually realize. I wish you the best of luck in your search. You have made a perfect first step: you have registered at this website. The people here have taught me most of what I know about the REALITY of card counting. Welcome.
> What I want to be able to do now is to analyze my game and find how I can
> make it stronger, and to analyze games available to me to find the best way
> of taking advantage, etc. I want to understand Co-Variance, Certainty
> Equivalents, etc. Through experience & necessity I have learned about
> Standard Deviation, N0, variance, and such. I feel I need to go deeper now
> and without a background in math, I am finding it difficult.
Check out the link below. The math can be a little tricky at times, but the explanations are good. Remember - you don't need to understand every piece of a complicated formula, you just need to know how to make the formula work for you. I don't understand half of the things that Griffin or Epstein say, but I know how to use their formulas to get the results I need. It is MUCH more fun to let someone else come up with the answers then just copy off of their paper! How do you think I got straight C+s all through school?
-Sonny-
You've been spying on me!
Posted by TwuntyWun on 02-Aug-2004 21:12:07 (#9600)
Sonny,
Thanks again for your insight. Yes, You are absolutely correct. That's where I find myself! I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that I will never be a BJ Theorist. I will never know the math that well, nor would I want to, I think! But I do want to add a basic unserstanding of it all to my AP toolbox. When I go to BJRM, I'd like to be able to test a hypothesis rather than be repeatedly amazed at the results I get.
I have indeed been learning new indices and dabbling with learning ST among other things. I have also been trying to improve my self-discipline/self-control. I do tend to steam and I need to stay on top of that. It is a useful act, but when the act becomes too close to reality, only bad things happen.
Thanks for the link to the BJ Math site. I knew about that site before I cared to read any of it, and forgot about it. I'll look forward to spending some time there now :o)
Thanks for the welcome and the help!
TW
Good math books *LINK*
Posted by Sonny on 02-Aug-2004 10:56:16 (#9581)
> I do not have a great math mind. Although I am pretty bright and can learn
> most things easily, math is more difficult for me. I have never been driven
> to get past that before. My game is now progressing to the point that I
> really need to understand more of the math of it.
I'm was in the same place about a year ago, then I read through "The Mathematics of Games and Gambling" by Edward Packel. It gave me a great understanding of basic probability theory. Pretty much everything else you need to know about the math behind blackjack is in Schesinger's "Blackjack Attack." They are both very well written and explain the math very simply. That is where I would suggest you start.
-Sonny-
Thanks, Sonny. I'll check it out! *NM*
Posted by TwuntyWun on 02-Aug-2004 16:59:53 (#9590)
Etiquette with other counters at the table
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 01-Aug-2004 20:33:02 (#9570)
If you are playing and there is another obvious counter at the table, is it considered sporting to spread to two hands on good counts if he is not? And does it make a difference who was there first, or who is playing a larger unit?
I find....
Posted by suicyco maniac on 01-Aug-2004 20:44:17 (#9571)
...it very offensive if another counter wongs into my high counts knowing I am a counter..I will not play with another counter at my table for several reasons....but sometimes it happens you don't notice the other counter til it is too late in that case I usually finish out the high count and walk away when it is thru. Just my 2 cents...also I would think whoever was there first should "own" the table SM
What I think...
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 02-Aug-2004 01:14:09 (#9573)
... when you notice someone is a fellow AP. Share the high count that gave him away, then wink at him and collect your chips.
-Felix
Urinate on the Tree like a Dog......
Posted by phantom007 on 02-Aug-2004 08:02:59 (#9579)
and mark your territory, or in this case the legs of the table and chairs.
Seriously, two CC's at the same table will usually get both of you caught pretty quickly. Same 2 or more players always take ins. at the same time, raise/lower, sit out, etc. becomes pretty obvious.
Etiquette should be that first in holds the table. If you sit down, and later realize there was another CC ahead of you, is best to politely move on.
When possible, I try specifically to choose "No mid-shoe entry" tables just so others do not wong-in on my good counts.
phantom007.
If the shoe fits... *LINK*
Posted by Sonny on 02-Aug-2004 11:22:07 (#9582)
> When possible, I try specifically to choose "No mid-shoe entry" tables just
> so others do not wong-in on my good counts.
That is a good plan.
Sure, I feel bad about Wonging into someone else's hot shoe (or deck) when I find out there was another counter already there. However, if the table allows mid-shoe entry then the other counter shouldn't have been there in a negative count in the first place!
-Sonny-
I was talking....
Posted by suicyco maniac on 02-Aug-2004 20:08:11 (#9597)
...About simply using a known AP as your own personal spotter without their consent...I agree if you stumble across another counter after backcounting a shoe you have just as much right to share that high count but move on when it is over and leave the other player be...SM
Not only rude, but risky.
Posted by TwuntyWun on 02-Aug-2004 21:27:59 (#9601)
If you were to do this to me once, I would be annoyed, but give you the benefit of the doubt. If you repeated the feat, and I now knew what you were doing, I would be very tempted to end your session and possibly your play at that store for evermore. This very trick has been the reason for the only times I have ever been tempted to out another counter. I have actually hinted to a counter that I would do so, and in another instance, even led one to believe I was in the process of doing so. I had a good laugh when he quickly left my favorite table as I was discreetly motioning toward him while having a serious and disapproving discussion about the color of the new table felt with his PC. (And no, I have never actually outed anyone, but there are one or two guys out there who have used up all my good will. If there is a next time...)
TW
This particular case
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 03-Aug-2004 12:31:17 (#9612)
In the case I have in mind I was Wonging around some shoes. When I Wong around I leave on a low count and go to the next uncrowded table without paying too much attention to who is there, not quite the same as Wonging in using a known counter as your indicator. So if I meet another counter it's just random. Now keep in mind I feel bad about Wonging out even on ploppies, and the same way with a counter, but I know that a counter has the same opportunity to Wong out as I do and his problem if he chooses not to use it. My only concern was the card-eating effect of spreading to two hands. This is a required part of my strategy due to bankroll limitations (keeps swings in check) and I know it hurts the ploppies just as much as it does a counter, but not to a very large degree. Maybe I'm just being overly sensitive.
Sharing the tables w/ civilians
Posted by TwuntyWun on 03-Aug-2004 21:48:35 (#9617)
AM
I know what you mean about feeling bad wonging out. A few times of going to the restroom and leaving a happy table (even the civilians enjoyed the benefits of the high count as the dealer busted hand after hand and they all picked up on the wisdom of playing conservatively when the dealer is busting) only to return to sullen faces and low stacks all around can get to you. I got over it when I realized that they were sullen and angry *at me* for leaving and *gasp!* CHANGING THE FLOW!
I actually once kept a very pleasant elderly civilian woman at my table as the count turned positive. She had been losing through the beginning of the shoe, and got up to leave just when the advantage turned in our favor. I motioned for her to stay, "Give it a few more hands. The cards are bound to change!" "You think so?" "Yeah, stay with me awhile. I have a good feeling." So, most APs would call me an idiot. The lady played her progression, and I spread to two hands through a monster count and we both made some money. Call me a sucker, but I felt good about that. This is the only time I have done this, but it still makes me smile thinking of her joyously coloring up at the end of that shoe. "OK...NOW we'll BOTH go!"
I no longer sweat wonging in/out on people, or them doing the same to me. Yes, when I know a counter has wonged in on me I get a little annoyed-- but I know I've done the same to others. Innocently wonging in is not the same as letting someone else do all the work for you and then jumping in and basically stealing part of his paycheck.
As for hurting the civilians with spreading/wonging, etc. I stopped worrying about that about the time I stopped being able to get a heads up game. I sit down and ***whooooosh*** it's full of civilians. I get up and go to another empty table and **whooooosh** they follow. Forget about telling them you like to play alone, they don't care. If they see someone winning, they think you're good luck and will haunt you to your dying day... civilian turned ploppy before your eyes. Yelling at you for splitting 9s, crticizing just about everything, trying to turn the rest of the table--and the dealer--against you!! So, I don't worry about it and spread and wong away when given the opportunity. Just like a counter can wong out any time she likes, a civilian can learn to count any time he likes.
As for spreading to two hands. If I discover I have joined a game that another counter is working, though, I believe spreading to two hands is in poor form if he is not doing so. I'm not sure why exactly, but this just feels rude to me! To play through the count and leave seems to be the right thing to do.
TW
Not many counters out there.
Posted by Tom on 02-Aug-2004 18:03:16 (#9594)
I could not tell you how many times I've thought the guy across the table might be a card counter only to find out later(99%of the time) he was nothing but a BIG ploppy. I guess what I'm trying to say is it is difficult to determine who is who and it takes some quite some time to figure it out. In the mean time I worry about nothing and just play my game,this includes spreading to 2 hands and so forth. I surely dont need a mistaken identity or un-called for stress to f#*k my game up. If a counter happens to get in my way..........sorry. The game is already difficult to beat as is. I only leave a shoe when it goes bad,REGARDLESS of who is who.
I know, I'm ruthless.
Tom
"Clump" counting, another 28 units positive, thoughts and discussion
Posted by Boardingbetter on 01-Aug-2004 23:36:15 (#9572)
Ok team,
I recently went to one of the indian casino's in CT. The game was 8 deck, dealer stood on Soft 17, double after split, early surrender, and the penetration was in my opinion, very good.
So, I am a KO-system counter. However, I am not good enough to do it completely into 8 decks, and I also get distracted with the game, remembering basic strategy (I play it basic strategy perfectly, I just have to 'think' about it and then loose the count), and frankly, the emotional ups and downs (i.e. enjoyment) of the game to be a real threat.
So, I brought this up before and got some flame but I am going to bring it up again because it seems to be a successful first step for me. I have done this 5 trips now, and am net up a little over 400 units over those 5 trips.
First, in the KO system, which is unbalanced, the count should rise 4 points every 52 cards on a perfect distribution (for those that are not familiar with KO and I mean no patronistic offense to those that are). I don't know hi lo or any balanced, multi tier, or side count systems, so I couldn't compare systems, and comparing systems is not what this post is about.
So, knowing that the initial count of an 8 deck show is -28, and the key count is -6, when we have the advantage. So, this states that with the remaining cards in the deck, we have the statistical advantage to win.
However, I like to drink, don't need the money, and so this was not working for me, because I was friggin blitz, get distracted, and was hitting on the hottie next to me for 1/2 the night. However, I could keep the count over a 'clump' of cards, and so did some experimenting.
There were 6 players, and the dealer. On average, I assumed that 25 cards came out per hand (I would mentally note situations where everyone stands on a dealer six etc. and not apply this theory).
So, on average 25 cards per round, the count should climb an average of 2 pts per hand. Well, sometimes it did, and sometimes it dropped. However, sometimes there were 30 non-T cards on the table, all low in value etc. The count would climb 20 pts in a single deal to the table.
Well, my thoughts were, assuming a normal distrution, I have the advantage in the next hand. I did not care where in the shoe I was, if the count climbed like 4 pts, I would spread 1 to 2. If the count climbed like 10 points, I would spread 1 to 3, and if it would climb 20 in a single hand, I would spread 1 to 5 or 1 to 6.
I also would take insurance when the count jumped a great deal in the hand before, or the count laying on the table was very very high. I would also divert from taking a hit on 16 when I assumed many face cards left in the shoe. Both things worked well for me all night.
Did this for 10 hours, up 28 units. 10 dollar table. started with 48 units. Have done similar things 3 other times, and 2 other times, broke even.
I know I'll get some heat for this, because I am applying counting theory in a less certain way. But let's think about this...there are 416 cards in an 8 deck shoe, and I know that by counting (using KO at least) that you are certain that of cards remaining in the deck, when we reach and maintain a count at or above -6, we have the advantage, so crank up your bet. However, there is an accepted level of uncertainty in even this theory and that is the penetration. Those unknown cards behind the yellow card are assumed to be normally distributed, or their variation small enough when compared to the larger number of remaining cards to be less than relevant in the long run.
I am simply assuming the same thing, but on smaller runs of cards, am I not? I am simply assuming normal distrution throughout the shoe and betting when I see fluctuations in that normal progression, based on that if the progression is truely normal, the count will return near the plus 4 per 52 that it should.
Anyone else ponder this? Care to talk about it? I would like to say that I continue to practice counting and someday maybe I'll get good enough to do this in a casino environment and have the advanced play memorized etc. I also am not going to learn another system, and don't want to debate them. KO is easy and works for me, I understand the theory, don't have to estimate a true count, etc. and frankly, I am not experienced enough to comment on any system. So if you like one - great! Rock on with your bad self, you have my support!
I am just curious if anyone has done similar thing or thoughts.
Thanks Zengrifter for opening me up to counting... I'm 4.5K richer because of it.
Boarding...
Some bad bews
Posted by Sonny on 02-Aug-2004 12:03:16 (#9585)
> I know I'll get some heat for this, because I am applying counting theory in
> a less certain way.
I'm afraid there is plenty of heat to follow, but I promise I will include contructive criticism as well. =)
> So, I am a KO-system counter. However, I am not good enough to do it
> completely into 8 decks, and I also get distracted with the game, remembering
> basic strategy (I play it basic strategy perfectly, I just have to 'think'
> about it and then loose the count), and frankly, the emotional ups and downs
> (i.e. enjoyment) of the game to be a real threat.
So let me get this straight, you are not competent at counting cards and you cannot emotionally stand the variance associated with the game? Well, at least your winning money so far. I appreciate your honesty.
> I have done this 5 trips now, and am net up a little over 400 units over
> those 5 trips.
Unless those trips were 100 hours each then your results are not really significant. Again, this is just the variance that goes with the game. The positive variance isn't so bad, is it?
> However, I like to drink, don't need the money, and so this was not working
> for me, because I was friggin blitz, get distracted, and was hitting on the
> hottie next to me for 1/2 the night.
Again, this goes back to competence. You need more practice. You need to be able to do all the things above AND still keep the count. Until you can get your skills up to casino speed you should not expect to win money in the casinos. Enjoy the money you have won so for before it ends up back in the dealer's tray.
> Well, my thoughts were, assuming a normal distrution, I have the advantage in
> the next hand. I did not care where in the shoe I was, if the count climbed
> like 4 pts, I would spread 1 to 2. If the count climbed like 10 points, I
> would spread 1 to 3, and if it would climb 20 in a single hand, I would
> spread 1 to 5 or 1 to 6.
So you are playing and betting based on the running count of only the current hand, right? Well, that seems like a good idea except for your first sentence above - ASSUMING a normal distribution. This is a BIG assumption to make. In fact, the reason that the count raises and drops is because the shoe does NOT have a normal distribution.
If the first ten hands of the shoe have a -20 running count and the current hand has a +5 running count, you should NOT raise your bet or change your playing based on this. You are still at a disadvantage. One hand does not give you nearly enough information in an eight-deck shoe, just like 5 trips will not give you enough information about a playing strategy.
On top of that, a 1:6 spread will not beat an 8-deck game. You probably won't even break even with such a small apread and perfect play. Since we already know that you do not use perfect play we can start to see the deficiencies in your system.
> I also would take insurance when the count jumped a great deal in the hand
> before, or the count laying on the table was very very high.
Not a very good idea for the same reason as above.
> I am simply assuming the same thing, but on smaller runs of cards, am I not?
Exactly right.
> I am simply assuming normal distrution throughout the shoe and betting when I
> see fluctuations in that normal progression, based on that if the progression
> is truely normal, the count will return near the plus 4 per 52 that it
> should.
The whole concept of card counting is based on AB-normal distribution. We are waiting for lots of small cards to come out all at once. In an 8-deck shoe there is PLENTY of opportunity for "clumps." You are attempting to appraise an entire shoe based on one small "clump's" wirth of information. That is why card counting is so dependant on penetration - the fewer cards that you do not know, the more accurate your count will reflect the remaining cards (as well as the increased posibility for such opportunities).
Your system is like playing an 8-deck game with only 25-card penetration. Even though the dealer is dealing out most of the cards, your strategy is always based on only 25 cards. This is not enough information.
If you are going to take this seriously you will need much more practice. You are trying to make the easiest card counting system even simpler. However, the KO system is really the bare-bones of a counting system. To simpify it any more would only make is uneffective.
-Sonny-
neutral decks
Posted by Tom on 02-Aug-2004 17:40:57 (#9593)
I have actualy thought of somewhat the same strategy years ago,except I would first countdown a whole shoe(auto-matic shuffler)-if the"running count,hi-lo" stays within +7 and -7 the next time the shoe came around I would play it as single deck and PRAY all decks would stay in neutral range. Needless to say praying dont help much in a casino,so I backed out. It was the best decision I ever made because Ive found after counting down thousands of shoes since my newbie days that always assuming every deck in a shoe will bounce back to neutral would have been a major DISASTER. It's a losing proposition,I warn you know before the long run does. I think you've been dodging bullets. Keep in mind I'm not trying to critcize the strategy you use and this is just my opinion which happens to also be very true in my real world of blackjack.
Tom
Smart words
Posted by Sonny on 02-Aug-2004 20:39:40 (#9598)
> I have actualy thought of somewhat the same strategy years ago,except I would
> first countdown a whole shoe(auto-matic shuffler)-if the"running count,hi-lo"
> stays within +7 and -7 the next time the shoe came around I would play it as
> single deck and PRAY all decks would stay in neutral range. Needless to say
> praying dont help much in a casino,so I backed out. It was the best decision
> I ever made because Ive found after counting down thousands of shoes since my
> newbie days that always assuming every deck in a shoe will bounce back to
> neutral would have been a major DISASTER.
Also, NEUTRAL doesn't always mean COMPLETE. Playing against a complete 52 card deck is one thing, but playing against a neutral 52 card deck (made up of unknown parts of eight decks) is COMPLETELY different. What if those 52 cards where made up of 26 eights and 26 nines? That would be quite a different game, huh?
> It's a losing proposition,I warn you know before the long run does. I think
> you've been dodging bullets. Keep in mind I'm not trying to critcize the
> strategy you use and this is just my opinion which happens to also be very
> true in my real world of blackjack.
Very true indeed.
Boardingbetter, you obviously have a very good start if you are learning card counting and asking questions on this website. Your honesty about your experience and willingness to discuss it show how much you want to become a great player. You've spent some time learning and practicing, but don't quit now! Card counting may seem tough at first, but once you get the hang of it you will be doing it subconsciously at the table. With enough practice your brain will be doing all the hard work for you while you are getting drunk and hitting on the ladies...and impressing them with all the money you are winning!
-Sonny-
P.S.- Besides, I may need to borrow some money from you someday!
Thanks much - makes total sense...
Posted by Boardingbetter on 02-Aug-2004 22:00:19 (#9604)
Team,
Thanks much. Yeah the math don't really hold water. I totally understand that if the count is way low, and it jumps back positive, I still have quite a whole to come out of of and could be walking in to a punch.
Also, I'll keep practicing, for sure.
Thanks guys,
Boarding...
One more thing...
Posted by Boardingbetter on 02-Aug-2004 22:02:41 (#9605)
Sonny,
In the message above, I just wanted to post one thing in response to your initial response. You read my statment incorrectly (or I didn't convey it properly). I can handle the emotional swings - I love them! I almost get so into it.
The other day a buddy of mine hit like for 7's in a row, topped that off with a number of 4's and some long hits. The table was like on its feet when the dealer was playing the cards hootin and hollarin... It was a blast.
He broke even :-)
Boarding...
The swings
Posted by Sonny on 03-Aug-2004 00:01:14 (#9606)
> In the message above, I just wanted to post one thing in response to your
> initial response. You read my statment incorrectly (or I didn't convey it
> properly). I can handle the emotional swings - I love them! I almost get so
> into it.
I probably misread what you had said. Don't take it personally - I don't think ANY of us are immune to the depression of a sustained losing streak.
Yeah, the short-term swings can be fun. Even after a losing trip I still feel good about getting in some playing hours and I always have plenty of stories to tell.
Still, the long-term variance is what can really grind away at your soul. When you play for several months (or a year) without showing a profit (or even digging farther into the hole) you will begin to hate life. You will doubt yourself and your abilities, and you will regret the fact that you thought you could make money gambling. You will despise the fact that you wasted so many hours in these lousy casinos when you could have been doing something else, ANYTHING else.
I have been lucky with my variance. I had several incredibly bad sessions in the beginning which really made me focus and practice my skills. Although my bankroll has continued to grow since then, I know that the next "drought" could come at any time. Even though I know it will happen, I know that I will not be ready for it when it strikes. I will go through all the anxiety and self-doubt that I talked about above. That is just the way it goes.
You will never be able to shake off the gloom, but being able to continue on with your quest is what makes card counting a noble endeavor.
-Sonny-
The other side of swings
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 03-Aug-2004 19:03:50 (#9615)
I hear you man. I started off with incredibly good luck, then a surprising string of bad, then incredibly good, a little bad, now I'm on a good one again. Up about 200 green in my last 4 sessions. Sessions so good they're scary and I can't wait to get away from the table and drop a unit or two in a machine for cover.
In a way you might have been better off starting off with bad, because then you are used to it. Then again I might have not gone through with it if I had started off with bad.
Speedcount
Posted by gunslinger on 02-Aug-2004 11:38:02 (#9584)
I would like to know the truth about Dr.Henry Tamburin and Frank Scoblete with this so called "new speed count" They are selling it to the tune of 900.00. Smells like a scam to me.
http://scoblete.casinocitytimes.com/articles/9133.html
Yup...
Posted by Sonny on 02-Aug-2004 21:01:28 (#9599)
...it's a less effective version of the hi-low (which can be bought for $14). It is designed for people who are either too dumb to use KO or don't know how useless it is. Although I've heard that it is not completely bogus (I haven't actually seen it myself), it is simply too weak to actually produce any decent profit.
It would make much more sense to spend $14 for the hi-low and use the other $886 to start a back-counting bankroll, but most ploppies don't know that.
-Sonny-
My Opinion
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 02-Aug-2004 21:34:04 (#9603)
To an advantage player, ANYTHING with Scoblete's name on it is either useless or a scam.
GRIN *NM*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 03-Aug-2004 08:07:44 (#9607)
I have heard from a friend who took the course....
Posted by Learning to count on 03-Aug-2004 08:54:25 (#9609)
...that the speed count is viable for use at playing black jack. The problem is that it is a overpriced course for something that still takes intellectual discipline. Their are many simple counts that are equal in strength. The Ko Count is very simple if a person cant learn to use it then they should not be playing blackjack. Eight bills is a lot of money for a little amount of info! Aspiring counters should beware!
I have taken the class
Posted by Mickey on 03-Aug-2004 11:08:42 (#9611)
I have taken the class and can say that it does work. It is not as powerful as Hi-Lo or K-O but it is so simple that you will not make any mistakes.
I think it is good for those who are beginner counters or who have never counted. I personally had never counted before the class. I was playing in the casino immediately after class ended. I have since played many times and have won significantly more than the cost of the class. So it was worth it for me.
Even though the performance is less than the others, there is built in cover and you will be rated as a bad player, allowing for better comps than a good player. Since there is not a common knowledge of the method, there is less chance of being detected.
You can play longer also since it is so easy you will not get fatigued and you can actually have fun.
I am not a shill for the Speed Count people. I am just a player. This has gotten me into the world of counting. I intend to learn more sophisticated methods but would probably not even have entered into the couting world (thinking it was too hard and not worth the grind) if not for Speed Count.
Hope this helps.
Obvious shill post
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 04-Aug-2004 09:55:21 (#9620)
"I have since played many times and have won significantly more than the cost of the class."
I doubt if playing "many times" is a statistically high enough sample of hands to mean anything. You probably could have played straight basic strategy and had an almost as good chance to come out ahead.
If you don't realize the above, or weren't told this in your course, then it just shows what a scam it is.
Just think if you had spent $20 on a KO or HiLo book, instead of $800 for the course, how much more you would be ahead.
I Agree with Abhraham this is a shill post.
Posted by Learning to count on 04-Aug-2004 13:46:46 (#9624)
I was told this is a weak system.
Mickey
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 05-Aug-2004 07:27:01 (#9639)
doesn't post here and then he shows up. Agree. Shilly Wagger!! If I would sell you a car with 150K on it for $15 would you go and buy the same car with 300K on it for $500?? Only if you got duped into it by a used car salesman who offered you a free AAA membership with it.
Coincidence?
Posted by Cyrano on 05-Aug-2004 22:42:44 (#9647)
Anybody else noticed whenever there's mention of the speed count here, there's usually a corresponding thread on RGE21? Maybe a couple admins should cross-check IPs and possibly ban some people.
Speed count.
Posted by Tom on 04-Aug-2004 12:05:21 (#9621)
Does the price include air fair,hotel,comps,etc? If so,maybe not so bad of a deal.
What count system is this close to?
Do you simply count fewer cards,estimate, or eliminate true counts?
What bet spread do they recommend?
Has the system been proven by simulators,if so ,by whom?
Thanks,
Tom
OK. Think what you want
Posted by Mickey9 on 04-Aug-2004 17:52:21 (#9631)
Had to change my user name since I was having trouble with my password.
OK. Think what you want (not directed to any one post). You are right my real play is not much and doesn't mean anything. I have played 10,000 hands on a computer counting program from Deepnet (up $9000 with $15 units), and also 5,000 hands using 6-7-8 software and have come out as well as the other computer players using ko and hi-lo. Maybe this is not enough also. As I stated, I do not intend to continue with Speed count. I am learning the others. All i am saying is that this got me started. Millions of sims have have been performed, you can check it out. I am not a shill. I don't care what you do. I did not start this thread, I just reponded with my personal input. You can interpret how you like.
It is clear that this system is not for the good players on this site. I am not promoting it. By the way as far as making larger bets, it tends to be more agressive than hi-lo and ko (I observed watching the computer players). I do not believe this is a losing method as some have suggested, but you can make your own uniformed judgements. I do not blame you for your skeptisism (sp?). For me the price was no big deal. If you think it is too much then it is too much. You are right, I could have learned cheaper. However, I am happy I took the class and do not regret taking it.
What are you talking about?
Posted by Tom on 05-Aug-2004 09:42:29 (#9643)
I'm just asking some simple questions and not knocking the seminar.
Before anyone forks out $900 can you answer if the package incudes air-fair and hotel and the other simple questions I ask?
Answer
Posted by Mickey on 08-Aug-2004 18:57:30 (#9667)
To answer your question, the price is for the seminar only. they generally dicount it to about $600 - 700. I was planning on being in Vegas at the time so I took it.
Sorry Tom
Posted by Mickey on 08-Aug-2004 19:20:34 (#9671)
That post was not meant as a respone to you. I was having password trouble and accidently posted the same message twice.
What my t-shirt tells me
Posted by Sonny on 04-Aug-2004 14:26:53 (#9626)
> It is not as powerful as Hi-Lo or K-O but it is so simple that you will not
> make any mistakes.
Dude, nothing can be easier then KO! If you can't handle KO or Hi-Low then you will never be good enough to win money anyway. Why waste your obviously limited brain cells with a virtually ineffective system?
> I have since played many times and have won significantly more than the cost
> of the class.
Let me get this straight, this system is so easy that anyone can use it and it will immediately bring me great wealth? *cough* *cough* *SCAM!* *cough*
> Even though the performance is less than the others, there is built in cover
Yeah, the pit will be able to tell that you are a losing player right away! Unfortunately, you ARE one!
Let's face it, with such high variance anything under a 1% advantage is pretty much a losing strategy.
> Since there is not a common knowledge of the method, there is less chance of
> being detected.
Also, since the system is so weak you will recognize very few advantageous opportunities. Although your win rate will be fairly small, this has the added cover of a small and infrequent bet spread. Conversely, you could use a good system and raise your bet on every OTHER high count. This is what is known as the "shooting yourself in the foot" cover play.
> You can play longer also since it is so easy you will not get fatigued and
> you can actually have fun.
Fatigue is more a result of boredom or lack of sleep. Enough practice with ANY system should keep the mental fatigue to a minimum. I use Hi-Opt II. Although very long sessions (4-6 hours) do cause me fatigue, it is more from the casino atmosphere (smoke, constant sitting, drinking, darkness, etc.) and not from "thinking too much."
> I am just a player.
My t-shirt says that too!
> This has gotten me into the world of counting. I intend to learn more
> sophisticated methods but would probably not even have entered into the
> counting world (thinking it was too hard and not worth the grind) if not for
> Speed Count.
And it grew my hair back too!
I hardly think that an $800 seminar is a good way to bring the "average guy" into card counting. It seems like Wong's book ($14) would me much more accessible to most people, and just as simple.
Just my opinions...
-Sonny-
Even better, Wong's site
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 04-Aug-2004 17:08:41 (#9628)
Just go to BJ21.com, they give a complete High-Low lesson that is FREE. That site contains everything you need to be an accomplished low-level card counter, and once you go beyond low-level a whole lot of other educational options become viable.
So let's see: "Speed Count" costs $800 and is almost as good as High-Low. And a real High-Low education on BJ21.com costs $0. If you can't do this math, you can't do card counting. Maybe dice control is for you.
OK. Think what you want
Posted by Mickey9 on 04-Aug-2004 18:01:05 (#9632)
OK. Think what you want (not directed to any one post). You are right my real play is not much and doesn't mean anything. I have played 10,000 hands on a computer counting program from Deepnet (up $9000 with $15 units), and also 5,000 using 6-7-8 software and have come out as well as the other computer players using ko and hi-lo. Maybe this is not enough also. As I stated, I do not intend to continue with Speed count. I am learning the others. All i am saying is that this got me started. Millions of sims hans have been performed, you can check it out. I am not a shill. I don't care what you do. I did not start this thread, I just reponded with my personal input. You can iterpret how you like. It is clear that this system is not for the good players on this site. I am not promoting it. By the way as far as making larger bets, it tends to be more agressive than hi-lo and ko (I observed watching the computer players). I do not believe this is a losing method as some have suggested, but you can make your own uniformed judgements. I do not blame you for your skeptisism (sp?). For me the price was no big deal. If you think it is too much then it is too much. You are right, I could have learned cheaper. I am happy I took the class and do not regret taking it.
The juice just ain't worth the squeeze
Posted by Sonny on 04-Aug-2004 20:29:46 (#9633)
Dude, you have to admit that this all seems incredibly sketchy. Here are a few "gems" I picked up from the website (these are ACTUAL QUOTES!):
"The casinos have never heard of this approach; have no one skilled in catching a user of this approach, and have not created any software or hardware to catch players using it."
Well, the casinos are aware of when they have the edge and when they don't. Standard card counting systems are 95-99% accurate at spotting when to raise your bet. If you are raising your bet when you have the edge they will catch you, case closed.
On the other hand, if your system has you raising your bets when you don't have the edge, you will not be playing a winning game. Which is it? Either way, this system is sub-par.
"Our revolutionary new method is so different, that it can't be modeled in any available software simulators."
Isn't that convenient. Now they are stealing John Patrick's sales pitch!
I'm sorry Mickey, but 15,000 hands isn't going to convince anyone here. We run at least several hundred million (often a few billion) hands before we expect to see accurate results. The variance and standard error of 15,000 hands is simply way too high.
"The math for the speed count is irrefutable. It works, and we'll show you a summary of the math to prove it..."
That sounds great! I can't wait to see it!
"You'll learn proper bet sizing based on your advantage and how to avoid what mathematicians call "risk of ruin""
Wow, it "avoids" risk of ruin too huh? That's a little too much for me to swallow. How can a system with a smaller edge (about 70% according to the author) also give you a smaller ROR? By definition wouldn't the variance be larger and a bigger losing streak more likely? The only way to reduce your ROR would be to use smaller units, which would also reduce your win rate. Not only are you getting less action, you are also keeping less of the action you are getting!
By the way, there is no way to "avoid" ROR there are only ways to decrease it to a manageable degree. There is no way to avoid variance, that's why they call it gambling.
"At the end of these two days, you will have the tools to get a verifiable, proven, mathematical edge over the casinos...you will have all the tools necessary to gain an immediate, verifiable, mathematical edge over the casino."
Still waiting for that "verifiable, proven, irrefutable" summary. Where are the "millions of sims" that Mickey mentioned? Oh wait, I forgot - this revolutionary system can't be simulated.
"Think of it, just $695 to learn a method that will give you a mathematically verifiable edge over the house for years to come; the easiest advantage method ever developed, "
Here's an even simpler system: put your money in a savings account. You can easily get 2% interest, which is better than this system will get. You will be making money much faster than you would if you were playing blackjack with it, so you would therefore be "beating the house" since they will never see a dime from you.
And finally, time for the "irrefutable, mathematically proven" summary they have been promising:
send checks or money orders to:
Frank Scoblete Enterprises, LLC
The bottom line is, this is WAAAAAY too expensive, WAAAAAY too weak and WAAAAAAY to over-hyped. I'm not saying it doesn't give you a small edge over the casinos, I'm just saying that it's not worth the money OR the brainpower. There are much cheaper ways to get much more reliable knowledge. There's no reason that it should cost $700 to get started in card counting, especially when the books are so cheap and websites like this are free.
Good Points Sonny
Posted by Mickey on 04-Aug-2004 22:07:49 (#9638)
I understand your points but why does a higher variance make you a loser? You just need a bigger bankroll right? And 70% of hi-lo is still positive. You just need to play a little more. What am I missing?
I did not say that it was a good way to bring an 'average guy' into card counting. I said it worked this way for me.
Larger bets are made while having an advantage according to the sims I saw. the only rebuttal there is to dispute the sims. that could be but I don not think that these simulations were fraudulent. Dr. Catlin's sims were indepenant of Mr. Provosts. He has no reason to lie. And he knows what he is doing.
You obvoiously do not have to accept it. I know it looks suspicious when they do not release it to the general public. But that is what they chose to do. It does not make it wrong.
You are right about avoiding the risk of ruin. They do not claim that in the course. They use the standard methods of ROR caculations and calculate bankrolls accordingly (even though the promotion you quoted seems to suggest otherwise),
Your 2% savings acount analogy is ridiculous. You know that we are talking % of betting $ not % per year as in a savings account. Big sifference.
I know 15,000 hands does not prove anything, I was just telling you what I did, I was not trying to mathematically prove anything.
For the record, I am still a skeptic and do not intend to bet the house on this system. I am learning other methods and intend to play them accordingly.
Still squeezing
Posted by Sonny on 05-Aug-2004 10:40:36 (#9644)
> I understand your points but why does a higher variance make you a loser? You
> just need a bigger bankroll right?
Yes, or keep the same bankroll and play with smaller units. Smaller units means less profit.
A bigger bankroll will help to protect you from ROR, but there is more to it than that. Don't forget about the long run. Larger variance means that it will take much longer to reach the long run. If you don't ever reach the long run you cannot expect to be ahead of the game.
> And 70% of hi-lo is still positive. You just need to play a little more. What
> am I missing?
Yes, you will need to play longer and sustain larger fluctuations. The main barriers for blackjack players are time and money. We want to hit the long run as soon as possible and experience the smallest fluctuations that we can. Smaller variance means that we can play with larger units. Larger units means that will will win more money for the same amount of time. More Money + equal Time + quicker Long Run = happy Advantage Players!
We also don't want to spend all day in casinos just to win a few units. Card counting alone gives a very slim advantage already. Anything smaller would not be worth most player's time. Of course, this decision is subjective. Some people will be very happy to win a few bucks while on vacation. For me, I want to earn at least enough to cover my expenses. This means I must keep a reasonable hourly wage.
> The only rebuttal there is to dispute the sims.
I would love to see them.
> You obviously do not have to accept it. I know it looks suspicious when they
> do not release it to the general public. But that is what they chose to do.
> It does not make it wrong.
You're right, it doesn't. They can do whatever they want with their system, but I think it is wrong to charge that much money for something that will not benefit people very much and most people will discard once they learn how obsolete it is.
I own a typewriter from 1977, but I wouldn't try to sell it for $800. I certainly wouldn't claim that it was a marvelous new invention.
> For the record, I am still a skeptic and do not intend to bet the house on
> this system. I am learning other methods and intend to play them accordingly.
Great. We look forward to hearing from you again when you choose a new system. This has really been a trial-by-fire for you. We've all given you a hard time, but I think you understand why.
-Sonny-
Finally
Posted by Mickey on 05-Aug-2004 12:25:11 (#9645)
Someone speaks civil instead of the condescending and sometimes hysterical tones others have posted. I was really starting to think you all are egotistical nut cases. I hear what you are saying and your points make a lot of sense. thanks again.
Curious
Posted by Cyrano on 08-Aug-2004 01:55:04 (#9657)
I'm really curious to know what they teach. Mickey, what is the system they teach? Let me know and I or anybody here will do the simulations into millions or even billions of hands. As you said, let's have a civil discussion about this. What do you say?
Sorry
Posted by Mickey on 08-Aug-2004 18:59:44 (#9668)
I signed an agreement saying I would not disclose. The people with the license are the ones you have to talk to. I wish I could tell. I would love for you all to check it out.
I'll repeat it one more time.
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 04-Aug-2004 20:32:04 (#9634)
"I have played 10,000 hands on a computer counting program from Deepnet (up $9000 with $15 units), and also 5,000 hands using 6-7-8 software and have come out as well as the other computer players using ko and hi-lo. Maybe this is not enough also."
IF for $800 they didn't give you enough information and knowledge to know that 15,000 hands isn't or is enough, then you got ripped off. Most legit Blackjack books have a chapter or two devoted to statitics and what is a relevent number of hands to start forming conclusions.
PS. If your system is having you bet more than the HiLo player, than a lot of your gains are due to overbetting your advantage, and this leads to higher risk and greater chance of going broke in the long run.
Jeez. I'm sorry I mentioned it
Posted by Mickey on 04-Aug-2004 21:40:38 (#9637)
Fine you are all correct. Abraham, you make some good points, got me thinking. that's good. However, Dan Provost is a qualified mathematician and he has modified his simulation software to simulate millions of hands. So has Dr. Catlin (math professor at Umass). They do know how to do sims and they do know statistics. And isn't Henry Tamburin legit? Argue with them. Dan chose not to write a book but to teach it and license it instead. So what. It is his choice isn't it. Just because he wants to make money does not make it a scam. They never said it was better than hi-lo or ko or anything else, and also say it is not for currently good counters. How is that a scam. You should not attack something without knowing anything about it. Automatic Monkey ridicules it and then says isn't it just Ace-Five? He is not even close but still knows he is right.
I would like to ask who among you make a living at playing blackjack or even make say $100K a year. If not why not? You have it all figured out. So who are the pros flapping on this thread? With all that tax free income why the outrage over $800? I am curious to know your playing qualifications, not your paper analysis. You guys are always talking about getting backed off and trespassed. Well isn't that grand. You don't make a whole lot of money playing perfectly in your living room.
Sorry about the vent but I simply responded to a question about speed count and was ridiculed as being too stupid to learn KO. I have a masters in Engineering and understand Math very well thank you. Maybe i did jump at an overpriced method but I do not care about the money. It was fun for me and if that is what it took to get me started then so what.
I Told
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 05-Aug-2004 07:35:51 (#9640)
Deep Net Dan to distance himself from the Speed Count, but he did the programming to test it. I wanted to take a look at the system and I got a yes if I sign a waver NOT to discolse what I had found and I had to drive out to Dan's to get it and listen to why it works etc. As an advantage player in all aspects of my life I took a pass. I like Dan but feel is has pulled the Canadian version of a Jerry Patterson on us. I have his Palm Pilot programs which are exceptional and highly recommended. If you want to make Dan happy, and use your money wisely, buy his Palm Pilot programs. THAT will teach you everything for around $30. Forget the scam artists who have put their hands up Dan's hole and made him into a snake oil pupet.
Punch and Judy anyone?? !;o> laugh
McGarvey is so smart
Posted by Mickey on 05-Aug-2004 09:40:53 (#9642)
If only we were all so brilliant as you McGarvey. If only Dan would listen to the great McGarvey. Then suddenly you to compare him with Jerry Paterson? got a little ego problem do you Rob?
I especially like the way you can read minds to know that I am a shill. Because I haven't posted before? That is your evidence? What an idiot. You know knothing and make wild guesses about my intentions based on your paranoid thinking.
Mickey isn't as smart.
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 08-Aug-2004 18:04:03 (#9665)
Notice newbie want-to-be counter that didn't know that an $800 watered down counting system seminar wasn't a good deal, all of sudden is throwing around Jerry Paterson's name. Hmmmm... seems to know about the counting scene from 20 years ago. Maybe Mickey knows more than he is letting on.
Mickey The Shill posts should just be deleted along with this entire thread.
Patterson?
Posted by Mickey on 08-Aug-2004 19:19:11 (#9670)
I did not throw out his name. McGarvey did when he said that Dan Provost was going the way of Jerry Patterson.
Anyway who cares. You have all convinced yourself that Speedcount is bogus with the only reasoning being the price of the seminar. Seems like faulty logic to me.
I wonder however, when people use bad plays and other techniques to disguise their play, aren't they also giving up performance? Do they not bring down their advantage also? What about mistakes that you don't even know you are making? I supposed a long time counter would not make mistakes but the average counter would, wouldn't they? How then would you feel during a losing streak? Can you comfortably attribute it to variance or do you start to wonder if you are really playing with an advantage.
I have read that some poeple think there are very few (in the 100's) proficient card counters actually playing. Why is that?
You all think I am a shill. Go ahead and think what you want. I am not. I never once in my posts promoted that class. I just said as mich as I could about what I know. And I did not start this post.
Dan Provost and Henry Tamburin are not hypsters. I think many people agree with that. I know some think that Mr. Scoblete is, but he is marketing the product, he is not the developer.
Overpricing a product does not disqualify its performance. It is what it is. I believe the jury is still out and it may yet be disproven at some time in the future.
If people really want to know they could pool their money, take the class and do their own sims. I do not have this capability and even if I did, you would not believe my results anyway.
Was KO immediately accepted when it first came out?
Also, is KO just for beginners or could it be used full time in a shoe game?
Same old song and dance
Posted by Sonny on 09-Aug-2004 11:17:31 (#9681)
> You have all convinced yourself that Speedcount is bogus with the only
> reasoning being the price of the seminar. Seems like faulty logic to me.
The effectiveness of the system is irrelevant. Charging $900 for something that is widely available for free is a scam. On top of that, they admit that the system is not as powerful as the free systems. How is this not bogus?
> I wonder however, when people use bad plays and other techniques to disguise
> their play, aren't they also giving up performance?
Yes, but they are aware of how much their plays are costing them. They are balancing their bad plays with the higher spreads that it allows them to get away with. Because of this, some mistakes can actually let you earn more money than playing a perfect game!
> I have read that some poeple think there are very few (in the 100's)
> proficient card counters actually playing. Why is that?
Because they learn some cut-rate system that doesn't give them much of an advantage. They also don't practice, learn advanced playing decisions and make mistakes. They don't understand bankroll management, bet sizing and ROR. They don't have the discipline to learn the craft and they don't know how (or where) to find playable games. In short, they are losers to begin with.
> Was KO immediately accepted when it first came out?
No, but the developers went to great lengths to get it accepted. They disclosed all of their simulations and their results. They encouraged others to analyze their system for themselves. It was not accepted until several independent analysis were done.
The developers of the speed count seem unusually hesitant to disclose the specifics of their system. This is a sure signs that they are trying to hide something. In fact, they claim that it cannot be simulated by any of the commercial software. This is a standard line that system sellers use when they know that the math won't back up their claims. When an independent analysis shows how weak their system is, the developers will complain that the software was not accurate. This technique has been used by countless con-artists such as John Patrick, Jerry Patterson and Bobby Singer - and now Frank Scoblete.
You'll have to excuse us if we are a little hard on this system. We have heard it all before.
-Sonny-
Even more tap dancing.
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 09-Aug-2004 12:29:27 (#9684)
> I have read that some poeple think there are very few (in the 100's)
> proficient card counters actually playing. Why is that?
Because it is not something you can learn by paying $800 for a weekend seminar.
But it is not hard
Posted by Mickey on 09-Aug-2004 12:56:04 (#9686)
so as to exclude all but a few hundred is it? Can anybody tell me why so few people can master this? I have now looked at KO and Hi-Lo and it really does not look too hard. What is the toughest part? Playing well? Not getting caught? Assuming bankroll is not a problem, why couln't a person with above average intelligence make some very good money at card counting? Is the game now so bad as too make it not worth the effort?
Why Few Are Able To Do It
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 10-Aug-2004 14:44:56 (#9700)
why few do it:
1 - counting is work and a grind -- People want easy money, not to work for it.
2 - counting requires discipline -- an ever faster vanishing character trait. I want mine now, quicker. Instant results rule!
3 - casinos have lots of traps -- many a counter has become degenerate gambler or worse, if not careful.
4 - counting requires a large bankroll -- it is not hard to find better things to do with all that money
5 - the games get worse, the casino detection gets better -- you are chasing harder and harder after a smaller chunk of cheese.
6 - if you are smart enough, disciplined enough, skilled enough, and funded well enough to do all of the above, it is almost certain you have the smarts, discipline, skills, and funds to make a lot more money at something else more legitimate and less risky.
PS >> I was looking at some facts about the Speed Count. It seems that when they compare it to HiLo, they are talking about only using HiLo just for betting. An indexless HiLo, with no playing variations. Varying your strategy according to the count with HiLo counts for about 20% of your profits.
I have also heard that they do not use optimal betting ramps with their sims. But don't really have the facts on this, but suspect it is true -- Appears the Speed Count overbets your true advantage at times, which increases risk.
Also, the games they are talking about are pretty generic rules, average to poor penetration, shoe games. With bad to average games like this, a very sophisticated 3 level count like AOII is going to perform pretty close to a simple 1 level count like KO.
So if you play bad games, don't bet properly, and just use basic strategy --- THEN YES! The Speed Count will perform almost as well as HiLo (or HiOptII, or AOII, or Halves, or even computer perfect play).
Thank you
Posted by Mickey on 10-Aug-2004 21:39:09 (#9706)
I appreciate your post. It does seem that there is a SMALL advantage to be had using Speed Count. Maybe good for the casual player that understands bankroll requirements and is tired of losing. I know that I never won at blackjack without using it and I am winning with it. Maybe lucky I don't know. But even in the short run I always lost before. Other count systems clearly are better if you wok at it.
your first couple of points baffle me in a way. you say
>>why few do it:
>>1 - counting is work and a grind -- People want easy money, not to work for it.
>>2 - counting requires discipline -- an ever faster vanishing character trait. I want mine now, quicker. Instant results rule!
Getting a degree is hard work and a grind. People do it. Working as, say an engineer, is requires discipline and is a grind. People do it. Counting is nowhere near as hard as this. What gives?
other comments on your thoughts
>>3 - casinos have lots of traps -- many a counter has become degenerate gambler or worse, if not careful.
Agreed!! I see that all the time.
>>4 - counting requires a large bankroll -- it is not hard to find better things to do with all that money
Agreed. But this seems to be a matter of education. Cleary more than a few hundred can do that!
>>5 - the games get worse, the casino detection gets better -- you are chasing harder and harder after a smaller chunk of cheese.
Probably hard to make small money but hard to make a lot.
>>6 - if you are smart enough, disciplined enough, skilled enough, and funded well enough to do all of the above, it is almost certain you have the smarts, discipline, skills, and funds to make a lot more money at something else more legitimate and less risky.
Good point. If you can make more money with less risk, why not.
>>PS >> I was looking at some facts about the Speed Count. It seems that when they compare it to HiLo, they are talking about only using HiLo just for betting. An indexless HiLo, with no playing variations. Varying your strategy according to the count with HiLo counts for about 20% of your profits.
probably true for Hi-Lo, but I have read that most of KO's strength comes from betting, not playing indexes. True or not? And if we say the KO and Hi-Lo are similar in results (can we say that?) then could we make the comparison with KO?
>>I have also heard that they do not use optimal betting ramps with their sims. But don't really have the facts on this, but suspect it is true -- Appears the Speed Count overbets your true advantage at times, which increases risk.
Assuming the sims are not flawed (probably a bad assumption), the counts that they are increasing bets into all show positive expectation. Whereas KO has you increasing bets sometimes into negative expectation. Is this true (on KO)?
>>Also, the games they are talking about are pretty generic rules, average to poor penetration, shoe games. With bad to average games like this, a very sophisticated 3 level count like AOII is going to perform pretty close to a simple 1 level count like KO.
Good point.
>>So if you play bad games, don't bet properly, and just use basic strategy --- THEN YES! The Speed Count will perform almost as well as HiLo (or HiOptII, or AOII, or Halves, or even computer perfect play).
Again at least you are playing to an advantage. Better than negative. Not the best you can get, but for the casual player, what the heck.
So it seems SC is not for people on this this board but is for another market entirely. Whether it is ethical for them to charge what they charge is for the customer to decide. If they hype it to get people in, well, that's marketing. Once you're in, you get what it is regardless of the hype.
I appeciate your input.
The variance
Posted by Sohrab on 11-Aug-2004 17:44:15 (#9714)
is deadly. I think this is the reason so few do it. You can go days, weeks losing. People hit a bad stretch and they quit, and who can blame? You lose confidence you are doing it right and wonder why you bother.
Also if you play green chips maybe you average $25 per hour. Count full time that is $50,000 per year. You can do better at something else or you would not have bankroll to play green anyway.
Most who do it do it for the sport. This is smart. To make a living at it is too hard.
Your pretty good
Posted by Mickey on 09-Aug-2004 13:04:10 (#9687)
with the glib remarks Abraham. At least Sonny had something worthwhile to say. All you can offer is cynicism.
Hey Abraham
Posted by Mickey on 08-Aug-2004 19:32:52 (#9672)
I agree. Go ahead and delte this thread. Means nothing to me. It seems to be just a bunch of bashing going on anyway (with a few exceptions).
Isn't it just Ace-Five? *NM*
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 03-Aug-2004 18:56:40 (#9614)
A/5
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 05-Aug-2004 07:37:29 (#9641)
doesn't work as good as Speed Count. I am selling the A/5 program for $1600.
giggle
The cost of playing under stress and with inadaquate sleep
Posted by BradRod on 02-Aug-2004 15:19:55 (#9586)
I keep a journal of my play. In assessing my play for the year recently I found an interesting relationship.
I have played 685 hours since Jan 1. This averages to 25 hours per week. In my assessment I grouped my play into overall uninterrupted winning streaks, overall uninterrrupted losing streaks and streaks of great variation over time. 4 major winning streaks, 4 major losing streaks and 2 major floundering streaks.
My average hours of play/ week for the winning streaks - 16.75, 14.33, 20.89, 11.67. All below my overall average.
Average hours of play/ week for the losing streaks - 26, 40.25, 69.09, 51.34. All above my overall aerage.
Average hours of play/ week for the floundering streaks - 27.25, 35 All above my overall average.
I think that a greater number of hours played per week reflects on longer play without rest or playing through the night often. It also brings greater stress to the game from neglected personal and business relationships and matters.
I am often aware of the futilty that I have felt in playing a hopeless game when I have been playing too long, getting irritated by other players, smoke, etc. And have thought that it usually takes me alot longer to lose a lot of money than it does to win it.
Maybe the distraction or fatigue leads to greater counting errors that I am not aware of at time. I know there are times that I play much longer into poor shoes than I should and this usually seems to occur when I playing for too long a stretch at a time. Also I know that I make bets that are way too large for the count. I call these impulse betting or capitulation betting. Generally I am aware when I start to let my discipline slip and again these are usually in the wee hours or after long hours of play.
Could it be that I have found empirical proof this phenomena in my journal results ?
Wicked sessions
Posted by Tom on 02-Aug-2004 17:15:44 (#9591)
One thing I've definitely noticed after evaluating my play(several years ago)was 2/3 of my longest sessions were losers. I correlate this problem from being too aggressive when losing and trying immensely to get my damn money back. After these terrible sessions I used to be exhausted and frustrated. I once lost 3 months of EV in one devasting day. I no longer make these mistakes (or try avoid) and actually bet on the conservative side when my bankroll starts taking a bad hit while patiently riding out the storm. I have made some tremendous comebacks using my strategy. If you get tired (or a headache) just take a break or quit for the day regardless if you're winning or losing.
The losing streaks(per hour) you posted are way higher than the winning streaks,are you winning or losing overall? You said you're losing sessions take longer. What do you mean by that,are you saying your longer sessions are losers or the casino is slowly getting the money when you lose? By looking at the results you posted, it appears the casinos are taking big chunks rather quickly, not slowly.
Good luck,
Tom
libraries are the countriesgreat democratic institutions
Posted by BradRod on 03-Aug-2004 08:54:21 (#9608)
I was checking my e-mails while I am away for 2 days of playing. I always check out the local places to eat, local parks or water fronts - for those breaks from playing, and the local library- where I find my computer access. Major hotels are pretty good also but not as predictable. So, I am not able to answer all of your questions until I return to my home computer. The big answer is that I am up nicely for the year.
The analysis was of hours of play per week. I think you are asking about win or loss / hour which tells a different story. Also at this time I cannot tell you how many weeks were winners, losers or flounderers.
I very much agree with you that when you feel yourself starting to lose control it's best to quit whether you are up or down. When I have kept playing in spite of knowing better I find that I am playing into an increasingly stressful situations and then any major comeback is only the result of luck and not of skillful play. Antway it is a good idea to let the casino see you losing evry now and then.
By the way for the current trip which started this morning I am up 12 units after 2 hours of play.
Libraries
Posted by blackjackhack on 03-Aug-2004 14:48:29 (#9613)
Agreed. Try the public library in Tunica, MS - 15 miles from the casinos - but quick down US 61 - free high speed internet access....
win/loss rate
Posted by Tom on 04-Aug-2004 08:37:19 (#9619)
I read your previous post too quickly and thought you was listing your average hourly win/loss rate. I dont assume I'm lucky when making a strong comeback from a terrible losing streak,putting the money out in key situations from the knowledge we gain is not what I consider lucky...on the other hand, betting big in the blind and winning back losses would be lucky.
Tom
Have profile, may I bypass moderation? *NM*
Posted by TwuntyWun on 02-Aug-2004 17:30:59 (#9592)
You have the bypass! Go forth and count! *NM*
ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 02-Aug-2004 19:30:56 (#9595)
Yeeeeee----HAAAA!!!! ;o) thanks. *NM*
Posted by TwuntyWun on 02-Aug-2004 21:30:15 (#9602)
system indicies
Posted by byplayaa on 03-Aug-2004 19:56:38 (#9616)
Hey, I was looking at the system indicies for the high low method in this site at http://www.cardcounter.com/. On this site, they state that for the 6D game, they are:
"-1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1"
6D, DOA
DAS, S17
Insurance 3
9 V. 2 1
9 V. 7 4
10 V. A 4
10 V. T 4
11 V. A 2
12 V. 2 4
12 V. 3 2
12 V. 4 0
12 V. 5 -1
12 V. 6 -1
13 V. 2 0
13 V. 3 -2
15 V. T 5
16 V. 9 5
16 V. T 1
T-T V. 5 5
T-T V. 6 5
These however differ from the ones listed at the Gamemaster blackjack school, lessons 14 and 15 at http://www.blackjack-school.com/indexa.shtml
Do you know which ones are correct? Is gamemaster just wrong?
Thanks
There's more to it.
Posted by Anon on 08-Aug-2004 21:30:14 (#9676)
(No, I haven't looked.)
Are there any differences greater than one?
When there is a difference, is it always the same system that is the higher?
Is the meaning of the change indices indicated as GT or GTE?
Remember that the raw indices derived, by whatever technique, are decmalized. They are converted to integers by truncation, flooring or rounding.
In addition
Posted by Anon on 08-Aug-2004 22:35:40 (#9677)
Those who compute indices responsibly do so based upon card composition of the hard hitting and doubling totals. (Obviously, pair and [two card] soft totals are already defined.) Before packaging departure tables for public consumption, system peddlers homogonize the results, blending the several composition indices together, and presenting the two, three or (more commonly) four decimalized indices as one integer value. For shoe games, for decisions other than surrender, this is fine.
For single deck, just as there are multiple correct basic strategy decisions based upon hand composition, there are useably different departure decisions based upon hand composition. And the competant single deck player also observes densities of ranks crucial in common decisions, making departures that seem like nonsense to the surveillance workers trained in High-Low.
Composition dependence for surrender is profound, even for six deck play. When the Canadian psychology professor passing himself off as a gambling expert called Lance Humble bought the single deck decision indices for the Stepine count from Julian Braun, which he homogenized and peddled as HiOpt2, he was unable to condense the surrender indices which are idiosyncratic in the extreme. These he passed along in their raw form to his $200 a crack system customers.
Don't agree with that completely
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 09-Aug-2004 16:45:54 (#9689)
It's true that composition dependent does have some significant value in a SD game and maybe even in DD less frequently. But in 6D or 8D? No I don't buy it- the difference in playing efficiency between something like HO2 and perfect playing strategy isn't large enough to allow it, in a shoe game. You're right that the surrender indexes are very powerful and they do make the difference between LSR being of marginal value to a Basic Strategy player to very valuable to a counter especially an ace-neutral one. Nonetheless the only ones I know of that could be considered comp-dependent are 8,8 and 7,7 vs. X, and those are really more like split indexes than comp-dependent.
Q: How many decks must be shuffled together to make surrender of 78 v T correct basic strategy? *NM*
Posted by Anon on 10-Aug-2004 08:19:47 (#9693)
That comp-dep index not worth the time it takes to calculate it *NM*
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 10-Aug-2004 12:30:32 (#9698)
Okay. Basic strategy just isn't worth knowing. *NM*
Posted by Anon on 11-Aug-2004 06:44:34 (#9708)
your question is not basic strategy...
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Aug-2004 12:59:57 (#9710)
In basic strategy, one gives a specific game, then for that game all proper non-composition-dependent plays are specified.
Your question would require a separate sim for each combination of decks and rules, to determine a play in a composition dependent setting. This is a very challenging undertaking to ask this community to do, with no obvious payoff for completing the study.
Best,
--Mayor
Is this story accurate?
Posted by Big Cowboy on 04-Aug-2004 12:26:13 (#9622)
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,127852,00.html
Define "accurate"
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 04-Aug-2004 13:37:06 (#9623)
Is homelessness up 18%? Probably not. The Homeless used to be an unseen and uncounted problem. The probably of Homlessness and vagrancy in Downtown LV has been a problem for years.
Lately, with the "clean-up" efforts downtown, the city's investment in the Freemont Street Experience, and new investors and money starting to rebuild Downtown, the homeless population has come into the spot light.
Plus, recently several shelters and organizations that have helped the homeless have shutdown, pushing them more visibly onto the streets.
The City about a year ago started cracking down on the homeless, giving them jaywalking tickets, puting them into jail for loitering, etc. whenever they were around Freemont Street. I guess the expense of continually jailing them on petty offenses (and making them more 'countable') is catching up with them.
Go down Freemont Street to the Western Hotel and Casino. You will see the same faces as always. There are probably a few more, thanks to the current Administrations kinder gentler policies. I guess they are waiting for the trickle down from the top tax bracket tax cuts.
My take on the situation
Posted by Sonny on 04-Aug-2004 13:58:37 (#9625)
> The number of homeless people is up 18 percent...
No kidding! What do you expect when you introduce all this 6:5 BJ and SF21 crap?!
> which in turn has caused vagrancy crimes, trespassing, panhandling and sleeping and
> urinating in public to skyrocket.
I've seen frat boys doing all of this stuff too.
> The situation is at its worst downtown, where lesser casinos and attractions
> struggle in the shadow of "the Strip."
And don't forget about the Horseshoe's rip-off games.
> So as part of a downtown cleanup effort, the city attorney is cracking down
> on homeless criminals because the old policy of arresting people, letting
> them back on the street and then re-arresting them for other offenses later
> was wasting money and resources.
Plus the Western was probably complaining about the police bothering their "customers."
> Critics say incarcerating the homeless costs money too, and putting them in
> jail doesn't solve anything.
They should start their own blackjack seminars! They could talk about how they used to be homeless but now their "miracle system" made them millions of dollars. John Patrick has been shamelessly ripping people off for decades and they still haven't arrested him. Maybe if the Better Business Bureau would crack down on such false advertising then there would be less bankrupt people in Vegas.
Three-Card Monte
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 04-Aug-2004 17:04:50 (#9627)
Why don't we teach the bums to deal Three-Card Monte, like they used to do in NYC?
Believe it or not that was my first advantage play experience. I figured out how to beat the game. This was their M.O.- they would deal the cards, and as you were watching it was obvious how where the target card was. Or so you think. One of his shills steps forward and picks one of the wrong cards. Then he invites you to play- you have a choice between where you "saw" it go, and another card. Guess which one you pick.
You only get to do this once. It's a dangerous game because a lot of those guys are drug dependent and desperate. Remember that his shills will only let you play when they know they have you beat.
Has this count been studied yet?
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 04-Aug-2004 17:10:22 (#9629)
A=0
2=+1
3=+1
4=+2
5=+2
6=+2
7=0
8=0
9=0
X=-2
Don't know, probably so......
Posted by phantom007 on 06-Aug-2004 16:30:14 (#9649)
I snooped around and according to www.bjstats.com, you could calculate Bet/Play/Ins. #'s on CVData. Ramps and comparisons can be calculated with CVCX.
If you have these, you can run your numbers, and let us know.
I have these, but am working on the road (posting and getting paid from my employer while using company's computer...GRIN), home Sun. night, and leave out Monday for 10-day vacation. Doubt I will have time to help. Sorry.
Otherwise, check "World's Greatest BJ Book". It has the best "hardcopy" comparison of common BJ counting systems (though I believe it was published way before KO), that I have seen. Anyhow, info. you seek might be in there.
phantom007.
An Immediate Improvement
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 07-Aug-2004 00:57:19 (#9650)
Instead of counting the 2 as +1, count it as 0 and count the 7 as +1
That would give you a big improvement on PE, which this count should be very good at. I assume you would some how side count the Ace for reasonable BE also.
It isn't in The Theory of Blackjack *NM*
Posted by John on 07-Aug-2004 22:36:27 (#9652)
The "A. M." count strategy, Hmmm
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 08-Aug-2004 01:15:42 (#9655)
Just need now to add in a side C of aces. :-)
Some Numbers
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 08-Aug-2004 14:11:16 (#9661)
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A
- - - - - - - - -- -
1 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 -2 0 PE .63 BE .90
0 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 -2 0 PE .66 BE .89
Incorporation of an Ace side count would add around .05 to the BE for the above counts.
Interesting
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 09-Aug-2004 14:35:24 (#9688)
This is what I was trying to do- to come up with a count that is almost as powerful as Hi-Opt II and easier to use.
Snyder's 100 is also very interesting. He comes out with his Zen count, slightly more powerful than HO2 given the BC and PE. But HO2 has a higher IC, so the two systems are probably close to equal, with one surpassing another as a function of spread.
So it would seem the determination of which is the better count depends on a few conditions (aside from simplicity, let's assume you're capable of using any count correctly); size of the spread first, and secondly, rules available. Having DOA, DAS, and LSR will increase the number of useful playing indexes and tend to make PE more significant.
HO2 is still better
Posted by Slagwater on 10-Aug-2004 20:35:55 (#9703)
The BC for 0 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 -2 with an ace side count is .971 while the PE is .632.
The BC for 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 -2 with an ace side count is .658 while the PE
is .658
HO2 is better in both regards with a BC of .982 and a PE of .668. I don't see why these counts are any easier to count than HO2.
My data is obtained from the BC/PE/IC count analyser which can be downloaded from bjmath.com.
For those wishing to use a level 2 count with an ace side count for betting I suggest HO2 or Omega 2. Omega 2 has better slightly better BC and PE but, partly due to poorer IC (due to counting the 9 as negative) Omega 2 is fares slightly worse than HO2 in most sims.
..slag..
Snyder's 100
Posted by Anon on 08-Aug-2004 20:52:42 (#9674)
http://www.bjfonline.com/Library/hundred.htm
Counti
Posted by stay-or-hit on 04-Aug-2004 17:38:15 (#9630)
Hello,
First of all I would like to say that Im very impressed with the type of people on this board.I have read a lot of the threads and found that no one here try's to have a big ego or better yet, pretends to know everything. However, that being said there appears to be a lot of people here who know what they are talking about. And I was wondering if someone could be so kind to help me out as Im a begginer in this whole card counting world...I live in Toronto, Canada. And I have two casino's that I can go to that are convenient. One being Casino Rama (indian reserve), the other being Casino Niagara which some might have heard of...or maybe not...lol..anyways my question is both these casino's play with multiple decks 6-8 decks...so I was wondering what systems are best to learn against these traditionally and is it generally a bad idea to play against these decks. And if you can kindly direct me to which books, sources to find these systems..Hopefully they are found on this website's new store..that way we can support the site-owners for having a great site..
Regards.
Check out the book list here on cc.com
Posted by Learning to count on 04-Aug-2004 20:50:17 (#9635)
I would get KO Blackjack. It is easy to learn and you can use at your casino. This site is good to learn how to apply what you have learned. Ask and you will be answered.
Learn Basic Strategy COLD
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 04-Aug-2004 20:59:12 (#9636)
Know basic strategy 100%.
Pick up KO Count book or any of the other basic texts here (ask for advice).
Have the discipline to practice and learn how to count.
The secret to playing the shoe games at your casino is to not play every hand! Have the patience and discipline to stand back and count, and only enter the game when the count is in your favor. When the count goes negative, leave the table. Don't play. Go and watch another table, and wait for a good count to enter again.
This is a sure path to profits.
Books to read
Posted by KennilworthKid on 05-Aug-2004 12:56:56 (#9646)
The book on the KO count is very good. KO is a simple yet powerful system. If you do not choose that system, then worth a look is "Professional Blackjack" by Stanford Wong. That book teaches Hi-Lo, perhaps the most widely used system, and is only slightly more difficult than KO. (It also teaches Halves, which is much more complex, but also more powerful). So, with KO or Hi-Lo you have what most experts think are the best systems to use in casinos playing 6 & 8 decks.
Also in Professional Blackjack is information on the effect of rules variations, which is important for you to size up the potential for winning at the winning at the game offered by your casino.
One other highly important book to add to your shelf is "Blackjack Attack" by Don Schessinger. I have the 2nd edition, I have not seen the just released 3rd edition, but his chapters on the Illustrious 18 (Chpt 5), evaluating games for rules/penetration/betting ratios (Chpt 10), and entering/leaving a table (table (Chapter 12) will be very helpful to you. Indeed, a previous post talked about back counting...One variation of back counting which is very good for the 6 deck games that do not allow mid-shoe entry is to Wong-Out, or as Schlessinger called it, use the White Rabbit strategy.
I've read books on blackjack by almost all the major authors...most cover the same ground with the biggest difference is the count system they support. However, the Schlessinger book is unique, and should be a companion book to whatever book you choose for your basic system.
Lady counters must be laughing all the way to the bank...
Posted by Brillo on 06-Aug-2004 15:01:09 (#9648)
I often see the counter pictures posted in the pit and they all have on thing in common: they all look like the guy who never gets laid and had his lunch money stolen in high school. Now, this profile cannot constitute all the counters out there, but this is what the casinos are looking for: the dorky guy with the glasses and baseball cap, with a few Asians sprinkled in.
We have this Asian who comes in all the time who is only allowed a $10 dollar flat bet. He'll try to up it and when told he can't he starts whining about how we are discriminating against Asians. I tell him that I have to do what they tell me, I could care less if he counts are not or what his ethnicity is, but it's always the same routine. Anyway, he fits that exact profile, he's in his late 30's and always comes in with his mommy.
I will bet there are female and black counters out there making a killing with minimal heat. Not that many perhaps, but we will never know because the casinos do not seem to think they are a threat.
You're probably right
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 08-Aug-2004 00:51:23 (#9654)
I'm an older-looking gentleman who drinks like a fish (or so I allow it to appear), curses like a confectioner's wife and looks like I might have been the guy who beat up the geek, and I get very little heat. So that's good, I don't fit the profile at all apparently except for being male and Caucasian. And what percent of their whales are Caucasian male, maybe 90%?
What kind of bankrolls do these guys with the glasses and baseball caps have?
women can not count!!!!!!!!!!! especially Latinas
Posted by Victoria on 08-Aug-2004 10:49:12 (#9659)
Now that that is said, lets move on to the next subject. We must not kill any money making stereotypes.
Victoria
I have only seen....
Posted by suicyco maniac on 08-Aug-2004 19:01:55 (#9669)
2 PROFICEINT female counters and was surprised both times...Female counters are definatly rare...SM
Victoria, eres latina????? *NM*
Posted by Learning to count on 08-Aug-2004 19:56:44 (#9673)
mostly/sort of
Posted by Victoria on 10-Aug-2004 10:57:14 (#9697)
Dad is Puerto Rican, my mother's family is well kind of different. Cuban, Italian from Sardinia, Italian from Southern Italy and Jewish (from both Italy and Germany) It is from mom's family where I became a third generation card counter. Or you could say I am just a typical X New Yorker.
Any real oldtimers out there who knew a Meyer B in AC, who was called Mr M in Vegas and was an X table game manager in Cuba?
Oh....
Posted by Brillo on 08-Aug-2004 15:20:57 (#9663)
some of these guys have huge bankrolls. They'll buy in for a small amount then start pulling huge wads of hundreds out of their pockets and are not interested in being rated. That's sends up a red flag when you consider the average gambler seems to get more pissed over not getting a cafe or cigarette comp than they are over losing $500.
Casino ignorance.
Posted by Tom on 08-Aug-2004 01:26:35 (#9656)
On my side of the table(not yours)I have found Asians to be the worst gamblers...casinos favorite customer. They often believe in ying-yang theory,progressive betting and superstitions,pick your poison. Your pitboss probably backed off a big ploppy,not a card counter. Something else I find humorous is a pitboss thinking anyone who looks smart and wears glasses is a card counter,this is total nonsense. Yet again,casino ignorance.
Currious of why you lurk here sense you're not a card counter,but a casino employee. What are your intentions?
I count as well...
Posted by Brillo on 08-Aug-2004 15:12:31 (#9662)
I don't play the game often because I hate it and I wouldn't consider myself to be a great counter but I will play sometimes to earn a little extra money.
If you are speaking of your typical Asian baccarat player you might have a point, scribbling on those sheets and analyzing every single bet to death as if it really made a difference in the outcome of the next hand.
Oh, and I just saw a picture of a lady who was just caught. She was wearing dark sunglasses, a baseball cap and was all hunched over, trying a bit too hard. She stuck out like a sore thumb, didn't look like your typical loud-mouth lady snapper player.
Not only baccarat.
Posted by Tom on 08-Aug-2004 18:08:28 (#9666)
I'm talking about the typical asian gambler. What makes you think they only use their systematic voodoo beliefs at baccarat and nothing else? They use this ying-yang theory event at virtually every gambling game.
Oh,by the way, is there a Casino employee forum where I can lurk and post once and a while? Just give them some of their own medicine back. Also just because you see a picture of somebody hanging in the pit does not mean they're a card counter,they can be anything.
Something else I might add since you work for a casino...Take a good look in the Griffin book(if your casino uses Griffin)and you will see card counters as a small minority,most of the book consist of ,crooks,slot cheats,rip-offs,mobsters,scamsters,etc.
Tom
A place to lurk for Tom
Posted by Sonny on 09-Aug-2004 10:40:49 (#9679)
> Oh,by the way, is there a Casino employee forum where I can lurk and post
> once and a while?
Sarcasm aside, check out the message boards here:
You will find plenty of floormen and dealers complaining about their jobs and bitching at each other. It's almost as entertaining as watching people fight here!
-Sonny-
You call this fighting ? You ain't seen nothing
Posted by John on 09-Aug-2004 10:45:31 (#9680)
I meant to use incorrect grammar. Hopefully, I have brushed off nearly all of my redneck roots.
Go admit to being a newbie on a C++ programming messageboard and ask a question that they think is really easy to answer. Watch out because those guys will nail you.
Funny site Sonny *NM*
Posted by suicyco maniac on 09-Aug-2004 20:23:56 (#9692)
Hi-opt1 vs muliple decks??
Posted by hit -or-stand on 07-Aug-2004 20:17:03 (#9651)
Hello everyone!
I had a question, I was reading "The world's greatest blackjack Book" by Lance Humble and Carl Cooper...something I came across that disturbed me and caused some sort of confusion....As I am a begginer (never counted cards or never learned any system), I know basic strategy, and I was looking to learn a good basic counting to face multi-deck game (6 to be precise), and what I came across was on PG.63 on the third paragraph and I quote " I recommend you stay away from six-deck games because they are extremely difficult to beat. Julian Braun estimated that to get a worthwhile advantage in a six-deck game with any powerful system the casino must deal out at least 4 1/2 of the decks, and your bet range must be at least 1 to 20 units per hand, a real eye-catcher with the pit bosses. The only possible approach to six deck game is to use team play and a very high level professional system like the Hi-Opt 2. When there are so many other places to play, the extra effort is not worth it".
My scenario is such that lets say bit bosses are not a concern at the moment but in terms of a system that can have an advantage over a six deck game. Should I bother learning this system or has any person devised a system specifically to counter the six deck......
Regards
Beating shoe games
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 08-Aug-2004 00:43:57 (#9653)
Yes, all of the counting systems will beat a 6 deck game. I use Hi-Opt II with an Ace sidecount; that's a universal system, effective against any BJ game. You can use that, or High-Low, or KO. If all you are ever going to play is 6 deck shoe then KO might be a good bet- the only problem is being it's an unbalanced count you have to adjust all your playing index numbers if you switch to a 4 deck or 8 deck game. WGBJB is a good book and guide to the Hi-Opt counts but kind of outdated; if you can't beat a shoe game these days you have very limited options of games to play.
The single most important skill you need to beat shoe is Wonging- leaving the table when the count is bad, or waiting until the count is good to begin playing. The former is much easier.
WGBJB
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 08-Aug-2004 02:53:50 (#9658)
Hi Hit,
My first book was also WGBJB. Braun and Cooper are excellent salesmen.
Not to demean their legitimacy, it is a good book. It certainly got me started. My first count was the Einstein count professed for Hi-opt1. But, you need more information.
>>To get a worthwhile advantage in a six-deck game with any powerful system the casino must deal out at least 4 1/2 of the decks, and your bet range must be at least 1 to 20 units per hand.
First, It's really not that hard to find a six-Decker dealt down to 1.5 or 1 deck.
Also, You can beat a 6-deck shoe with a 1-10 spread if you properly Wong negative counts. 1 - 12 you can clean house if you can handle the variance. They don't cover wonging in WGBJB. PG.63 implies a play-all situation. Who in their right mind would 'play-all' in any 6 or 8-decker, unless it was dealt down to the very last card??
Braun did his sims on a something like a slide rule 10,000 years before the birth of Christ. I believe they called it the AS400... This equipment is actually mentioned in the bible.
>> "The only possible approach to six deck game is to use team play and a very high level professional system like the Hi-Opt 2"
Complete Bulls**t!!!!!....
Hi-opt2 used to cost a few bucks. It's worthless now. Don't take this advice.
>>"Should I bother learning this system or has any person devised a system specifically to counter the six deck......"
My advice is to buy "Professional Blackjack" by Stanford Wong and learn the 'Hi-Lo' Count. The benchmark game will be a great reference point for you. 12 or so bucks...
Or, listen to anyone who can point you toward the KO system. I know no specifics of this, though.
-Felix
Poor wording
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 09-Aug-2004 11:38:46 (#9682)
When I say "It's worthless now" I mean you can now find this information much cheaper. Or, I'm sure without paying for it if you looked. I didn't mean the system is no longer valid.
-Felix
Buy Blackjack Attack and look at Chpt 10
Posted by KennilworthKid on 17-Aug-2004 19:03:10 (#9749)
Per simulation work done by D. Schlessinger and published in the above named book, the game you describe can be beaten with a spread of 1-8 using the Hi-Lo and the I18 strategy variances. Spreading bigger wins more.
Rob
Posted by hit-or-stand on 08-Aug-2004 13:50:52 (#9660)
Hey rob trying to send you an email....do you have one that works, Im interested in your work...you can email me at the_stick@hotmail.com
6 Feet Undergorund
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 09-Aug-2004 12:34:12 (#9685)
Looks like even the cyber mailman can't find me now. I'm slowly going underground with my merry band of casino marauders, but I do think all of my emails are still working. Which one were you trying?
blakjack@idirect.com
blackjackpro2000@yahoo.com
robmcgarvey@rogers.com
I think the credit card for the first addy's got a new expiry date so maybe that one is not working right now. I'll try to give you a shout tonight from the bat cave. Not much time for me this week as I am heading to IRIE land for a much needed two week R n R. Looking forward to chatting with you,
Rob
"Hey rob trying to send you an email....do you have one that works, Im interested in your work...you can email me at the_stick@hotmail.com"
email
Posted by hit-or-stand on 09-Aug-2004 19:48:30 (#9691)
the rogers one.....Well have a good trip and we'll chat when you get back.
Sent You an Email Last Night
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 10-Aug-2004 08:53:34 (#9695)
Did you get it? Maybe there is something wrong with my rogers account. Try the Yahoo one too, that should always work.
Tastey's Patties
wong out >
Posted by gehrig on 08-Aug-2004 16:48:02 (#9664)
cingular "escape-a-date".
Well I saw the Mayor!
Posted by Learning to count on 08-Aug-2004 21:05:08 (#9675)
The final show of the FSN poker tourney was just on and I saw the mayors face or I should say his lower half.
Yep...
Posted by The Mayor on 09-Aug-2004 00:38:27 (#9678)
In the final scene (about 3 minutes to the top of the hour), there is a brief flash of the audience as they pan down, and for maybe 1/2 second I am completely visible.
Just call me a media whore.
--Mayor
Where was your CardCounter.Com t-shirt?! *NM*
Posted by Sonny on 10-Aug-2004 10:54:07 (#9696)
good point!
Posted by The Mayor on 12-Aug-2004 19:08:36 (#9720)
I'll remember to wear it next time, together with a sandwich sign that says: "will count for food."
don't forget......
Posted by BradRod on 12-Aug-2004 19:16:46 (#9721)
your baseball cap and shaded glasses
Will count for COMPS =) *NM*
Posted by Sonny on 13-Aug-2004 10:06:00 (#9724)
Against my better judgement -- an endorsement
Posted by The Mayor on 09-Aug-2004 19:06:43 (#9690)
Within moments of opening this book for review, I was overwhelmed by two conflicting sentiments, both expressed by the same words: "Oh my god, he's giving away the secrets!"
On the one hand, the information in this book was material I had always hoped to figure out myself some day. Here it all was, laid out in plain and easily understandable terms. The other side was that once out, casinos would take counter measures to insure that these techniques would no longer work. Such information is rarely made public.
Please note that we are NOT selling this book, and do not stand to benefit in any way from its sale.
--Mayor
=====================================
PRESS RELEASE - NEW BOOK ANNOUNCEMENT
TITLE: Blackjack Ace Prediction
SUBTITLE: The Art of Advanced Location Strategies for the Casino Game of Twenty-One!
AUTHOR: David McDowell
FOREWORD: Michael Dalton
COVER ART: Abigail Kamelhair
COVER IMAGE: http://www.bjrnet.com/catalog/BJAP/BJAP_Cover.jpg
ISBN: 1-879712-10-5
LCCN: 2004110090
MSRP: $34.95
PAGES: 160
BINDING: Perfect bound 8.5"x5.5"
PUBLISHER: Spur of the Moment Publishing
PUBLISHER ADDRESS: PO BOX 541967, Merritt Island, FL 32954-1967 USA
PUBLISH DATE: August 2004
AVAILABILITY: ~ August 20, 2004
OUR WEB SITE: http://www.BJRnet.com
RETAIL BOOK SALES: http://www.BJRnet.com/shop/cat_book.htm
DEALER INQUIRIES: orders@BJRnet.com
DISCOUNTS: Must qualify. Contact above email for details.
DISCOUNT5: 5 or more copies = 30% + actual shipping charges
DISCOUNT10: 10 or more copies = 40% + actual shipping charges
DISCOUNT20: 20 or more copies = 50% + actual shipping charges
DISCOUNT50: 50 or more copies = 50% + free shipping
NEW ACCOUNTS: Prepayment is required for first order. Please furnish trade and banking references to be considered for open-account status.
DESCRIPTION:
The winning blackjack technique known as Ace Prediction, Ace Tracking, Sequence Tracking or Key Carding remained the closely guarded secret of a handful of high-stakes professional blackjack players for more than 20 years. Ace prediction can be extremely profitable given the right conditions. Here it is folks -- the complete scoop on this mathematically valid and proven blackjack winning technique. Sequence trackers will find in this book the author's own formula for identifying the profitable games. The author begins the book by studying all known published references on the subject. Chapter 2 examines aspects of non-random shuffling. Chapter 3 is the author's own analysis of non-random shuffling using a statistical procedure provided by Ed Thorp. Chapter 4 tells how to identify and exploit weaknesses in casino shuffles. Chapter 5 offers practical advice on locating Aces in shuffled decks. Chapter 6 explains how to predict Aces during the game. Chapter 7 deals with the calculation of mathematical expectation using simple formulas. Chapter 8 gives advice on bet sizing, probability of ruin, return and risk. Finally, the tables at the end of the book will be useful for making your own analyses of shuffles. Intermixed in the author's exhaustive presentation are some exciting personal stories from the pits.
REVIEWS URL: http://www.bjrnet.com/catalog/BlackjackAcePrediction.htm
REVIEWS:
"David McDowell has written the best book of the new millennium on blackjack advantage play, by quite some distance. The book is a rare combination of creative innovation and intellectual rigor, qualities found in some of the more talented gambling authors but very rarely both together. In time I will believe it will be held up as a blackjack classic second only to Thorp's seminal "Beat The Dealer".
"The book covers the art of blackjack sequencing, a dark art that even very few gambling professionals truly understand, let alone have mastered. The basic method involves memorizing a string of cards hoping that their order will be partially maintained by the shuffle. Under optimal conditions, this can give you an advantage a card counter could only dream of. The method is both completely legal [and] very difficult to detect."
"Although writers like myself, David Morse and Arnold Snyder have hinted at the possibilities of sequencing, McDowell is the first writer to completely explain all of the fine detail required to predict aces successfully, and in a stroke render all other writings on the subject obsolete. Every piece of information you could possibly need to use this extremely powerful technique is contained within. There is no waffle, though the book also uses some entertaining stories by way of illustrating the techniques therein, and is surprisingly readable given the scientific and dry nature of the basic subject matter. The book is worth several hundred times its cover price, and is an essential purchase for the intelligent gambler, particularly those who like to travel, where ace prediction techniques can be used with devastating effect."
--- John May -- author of the books Baccarat for the Clueless and Get the Edge at Blackjack
"With his compelling Blackjack Ace Prediction, David McDowell, a relative unknown in the blackjack world, bursts onto the scene in impressive fashion. His scholarly approach to the subject, replete with enlightening illustrations and copious footnotes, is a joy to read. I have a feeling that the relatively small group of players already aware of the techniques that McDowell describes are not going to be happy that he has gone 'mainstream' with the information. This is a well-researched treatise, and I'm happy to recommend it to serious students of the game."
--- Don Schlesinger - author of the book Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way
"Thorp didn't want to publish on Ace location, and my chapter on the subject is short for the same reason. Nevertheless, here it is, 160 pages in plain English, and worth its weight in flawless diamonds. Blackjack Ace Prediction is the fire from the dragon's mouth, bound to burn unsuspecting tables around the world. This book is a total must-have for the serious blackjack player."
--- Rob McGarvey - author of the book Aces and Faces Blackjack
"If you are interested in how to beat casinos by analyzing non-random shuffling, you will find David McDowell's Blackjack Ace Prediction an interesting and enjoyable read."
--- Ed Thorp - author of the best selling book Beat the Dealer.
"David McDowell's Blackjack Ace Prediction is the most authoritative book on the subject. Many will consider his work as the final chapter in advantageous blackjack play - as the cat has finally been let out of the bag."
--- Michael Dalton - author of the Encyclopedia of Casino Twenty-One and editor of the Blackjack Review Network
"Blackjack Ace Prediction offers a scholarly treatment of the subject with pragmatic potential for increasing profits for the serious blackjack player. David McDowell, the author, and Michael Dalton, the publisher are to be congratulated for this important addition to our knowledge of blackjack."
--- Lance Humble - senior author of The World's Greatest Blackjack Book
"Blackjack Ace Prediction is a winner. It will, no doubt, prove to be the best work on ace tracking published to date."
--- Steve Forte - author of the book Read the Dealer and the Gambling Protection Series videos
"Does shuffling a deck of cards put them into random order? Not exactly. This book explains how to follow particular cards through the shuffle to have a much-better-than-guessing chance of predicting when they will be dealt. This skill is particularly valuable when used to predict aces at blackjack. David McDowell discusses the work that has already been done on ace prediction by other people, and makes his own contributions to the topic. All in all, an interesting work."
--- Stanford Wong - author of the book Professional Blackjack
"McDowell's book is well researched and represents a wonderful compendium of all the important work relating to non-random shuffling and its effects on the game of blackjack. Probably the best book on Ace prediction today, and an interesting read to boot."
--- Robert Hannum, Ph.D. - Dept. of Statistics & Operations Technology, University of Denver
"David McDowell provides an interesting example of how the game of blackjack can still be exploited by the knowledgeable player. He does an excellent job integrating statistical inference with advantage play theory, and interesting gaming stories. This book is a must read for any player interested in assaulting the casinos by locating and tracking those valuable aces."
--- Bill Zender - author of the book Card Counting for the Casino Executive
"[Blackjack Ace Prediction] is the most comprehensive work on the subject I have ever read. As an advantage player and gaming risk consultant I have an extensive advantage play library. I have one shelf with books that, in my opinion, are the very best at covering their chosen subject - I have made room for one more. I don't think this book will do too much damage to AP's - it is brilliant, but like Grosjeans book and Arnold's Cookbook, you have to read it - casino people are unlikely to put in the effort; that's why they're casino people."
--- Michael Barnett - Surveillance Technology, Perth, Western Australia - http://www.survtech.com.au
Snyder: BJAP is "folly"
Posted by Theef on 19-Jan-2005 12:55:30 (#11820)
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/mcdowellsfolly.htm
Arnold Snyder's opinion of McDowell's book is as harsh as the Mayor's endorsement and the notable blurbs are glowing. Food for thought.
Who's right? Is the book gold or worthless? On various message boards I've read testimonials on both sides.
Forgive my paranoia, but I've got a slight suspicion that, to protect AP opportunities, at least one of the people who have commented on this book is being less than candid. Maybe the book is junk but people would prefer that casino personnel think it's accurate? Or maybe the book is accurate but other people wish to dissuade the unwashed masses from crashing the party? Or maybe I'm just being paranoid and the book has valuable information but also wrong conclusions, or something.
research....
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Jan-2005 13:11:49 (#11821)
There is a lot to be said on doing your own research. For example, I am writing code right now to model the riffle-riffle-strip-riffle-cut standard shuffle for single deck, with the sort of human imperfections that arise naturally built into the code. I am looking for anything that will allow me to track aces through use of a single key card (the card right before the ace). There are clear statistical anomolies in this shuffle. I am not sure whether these anomolies can be exploited in practice. That's always the point.
--Mayor
Me too, kind of
Posted by Theef on 19-Jan-2005 22:30:38 (#11835)
I'm actually working on something quite similar, but with DD as well as SD in mind. I wasn't sure SD games were still common enough to spend the effort searching for SD-only techniques, but I'm also not sure a DD shuffle would work as well. I don't know which places have weak shuffles and I don't expect to be told. I'm mainly just code-monkeying for the challenge; I furthermore assumed CVShuffle, which I don't own, can already do what I'm doing.
ace sequencing and steering...
Posted by gehrig on 21-Jan-2005 01:42:15 (#11843)
have been around the game protection seminars for at least 5 years that i've seen. when i saw the technique, 4 cards were "keyed". the number of boxes played varied as did the wagers. it appears to me that the sophistication of the shuffle is the prime determinate in gaining any ev.
rather than worrying the math, i'd view the technique as an adjunct to other methods... just another arrow in the quiver.
Icing on the cake
Posted by Sonny on 22-Jan-2005 14:09:39 (#11862)
> rather than worrying the math, i'd view the technique as an adjunct to other
> methods... just another arrow in the quiver.
I would usually agree that any additional EV gained from such methods can be viewed as extra "gravy." This is how I view occasional benefits like seeing burn cards, bottom cards, or a few cards during a riffle. The additional edge is there, but its magnitude is not important.
However, I think that the large advantages that can potentially be obtained by shuffle tracking and sequencing are enough to impact a player's EV to the point where it alters his risk-of-ruin, perhaps significantly. If you were able to earn an extra 1% edge then it would be important to know that information in order to adjust your betting level and bankroll size. I'm not claiming that an additional 1% edge is attainable, but if it were it would be very significant to know the value of such a play.
And the smart kids always love a new problem to solve, don't they?
-Sonny-
Kudos to the Bish! (as usual) *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 19-Jan-2005 14:23:48 (#11823)
McDowell
Posted by Sohrab on 19-Jan-2005 17:54:58 (#11826)
I am not a math guy but Snyder's explanation made sense to me. Looks like McDowell forgot that a deck without aces has much worse EV than overall BS would have. So McDowell's calculation of EV by EVaces + EVrestofdeck is too high.
Judgement Smudgement
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 10-Aug-2004 08:48:37 (#9694)
My sentiments exactly. Soon they will be [snip]. I would have been much more pissed if there was no online blackjack, but the deed is done. I don't think they will know how to react and didn't want to tell them what they need to do, hence the snip. A very detailed piece of work that should not scare the AP off. The writer is a real old timer who's made his money by keeping his mouth shut for years.
Rob
Cheesy Endorsement of the Year Award goes to...
Posted by zengrifter on 10-Aug-2004 13:13:20 (#9699)
... the big VR. zg (gag me with a spoon)
"Thorp didn't want to publish on Ace location, and my chapter on the subject is short for the same reason. Nevertheless, here it is, 160 pages in plain English, and worth its weight in flawless diamonds. Blackjack Ace Prediction is the fire from the dragon's mouth, bound to burn unsuspecting tables around the world. This book is a total must-have for the serious blackjack player."
--- Rob McGarvey - author of the book Aces and Faces Blackjack
Do these Guys Get Paid for Endorsing This? *NM*
Posted by SammyBoy on 11-Aug-2004 13:45:40 (#9711)
No *NM*
Posted by The Mayor on 12-Aug-2004 22:08:29 (#9722)
I don't get ace sequencing
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 11-Aug-2004 15:55:59 (#9712)
Then again, I didn't think I could get card counting until I read a paragraph about it somewhere and figured I could do it. And I didn't believe in shuffle tracking until I tried it and found I could manufacture my own good luck shoe after shoe. Perhaps ace sequencing should be next.
Simple test
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Aug-2004 17:40:51 (#9713)
Take a deck of cards, put all 4 aces next to each other and place the grouping somewhere in the deck. Shuffle once. What is the average separation between the aces? Shuffle twice. Now what is the average? Shuffle three times. And the average is? Repeat this many many times, and get some statistical data. What is the average distance and the standard deviation? How often did you cut the cards between two aces during the shuffle? How often were you successful in predicting an ace using this easy method?
You begin to see what it's all abouit...
--Mayor
Ace tracking
Posted by dbase on 13-Jan-2005 06:54:39 (#11747)
Mayor
Thank you for the practice tip.
Any other practice tips on the intermediate level?
regards
dbase
Looking for help with ace location
Posted by Myooligan on 13-Jan-2005 14:32:54 (#11755)
I've posted this on a couple other sites with no luck. . . can anybody here help?
I'm doing my best to adapt the "Card Gaps For an x-Riffle Shuffle," tables from Blackjack Ace Prediction(p.47-52) to calculate optimal bets when tracking aces in single deck games. All I'm after is to predict a few boxes where the optimal bet is greater than .5% of my bankroll.
I've been trying to figure out a way to adjust those tables for multiple breaks -- for instance, a riffle-riffle-strip-riffle-cut shuffle. I don't think I can simply subtract 1/51 per break like McDowell does, since the deck is riffled again after the break. The best figures I can come up with show the following optimal fractions for the described shuffle as:
D<sub>i</sub> f
4 0.4%
5 0.7%
6 1.0%
7 1.4%
8 0.9%
9 0.6%
10 0.5%
The standard single deck shuffle...
Posted by The Mayor on 13-Jan-2005 17:58:33 (#11759)
A riffle-riffle-strip-riffle-cut shuffle is the one that was used at the Horseshoe for years on their single deck. It is still used fairly universally for single deck.
You get this, and you are holding gold. Are you sure you want this to be a public discussion? Maybe those who know will not tell ... that is what I would expect.
--Mayor
'zactly..
Posted by gehrig on 25-Jan-2005 11:06:08 (#11910)
a slight modificiation may well 86 whatever advantage. i'd suggest at least two more strips on pitch games and more plugs on shoe games. we're talking about only a second or twq per shuffle, not more.
the other game protection alternative is for increased use of automatic shufflers. with increased competition within that industry segment and the simple fact that many of these devices are already depreciated/expensed, likely the cost per table will depress meaning proliferation. adios those techniques which rely on predictable shuffles.
So if I understand this correctly...
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 12-Aug-2004 00:11:00 (#9718)
... a stepladder followed by a perfect riffle and restack should give me a 50% chance of an Ace appearing 5 cards away from it's neighbor when it was put in the discard rack.
The first problem I see with this is caused by multideck games. Let's say my key for an Ace is the Six of Diamonds, but there are several Sixes of Diamonds in the shoe. How do I know which one it is? Using a couple of key cards in succession should help, but wow it that complicated! It might be hard to count and sequence the Aces at the same time. However it seems like it could make for good team play, no bankroll sharing required. One player counts the cards and the other one does the Aces.
"couple of key cards" even in s.d./d.d. game
Posted by gehrig on 12-Aug-2004 09:29:35 (#9719)
may not be enough. i've been playing with this for a number of years after being shown the technique at a game protection seminar. recalling 4 cards seems to sharpen the accuracy, particularly in a hand with multiple aces.
shopping for house shuffle procedures that can in this way be exploited is but another sliver in the continuum one should seek when trolling the aisles. unlike varying/"dealer dependant" penetration, the shuffle procedure is more strictly enforced. surveillance should quickly notice a fewer than "mic" shuffles while slightly varying penetration is less noticeable unless the game is being hawked.
while i haven't bought/seen the "new" book, i've concluded that the enhanced technique is to steer the aces to one of your (or if applicable, your partner's) hands. this while maintaining a worthy count. the gymnastics of maintaining that count, plus perhaps an ace side count, plus "several" key cards, with an apparently inattentive act, adds salsa to a (by now), droll game.
this game is still fun though. "recently" the technique was successful at a "strip" joint. likely i dented the hold for that shift. the 'stiff's long face when i colored up made me a tad guilty. almost.
Tried it
Posted by John on 13-Aug-2004 09:37:07 (#9723)
Hey. CVBJ's shuffle tracker or whatever it is called allows you to practice ace sequencing. After practicing a few weeks, I bought in at a casino for red chips and tried it out. I found that I was predicting the aces quite well. Imagine how dismayed I was when 3rd base wanted to take some hits after the 4 of clubs and 7 of hearts came out in succession. I was saying to myself, "no no no don't" but he kept hitting and 4 aces came out in a row. I was on first base. My next bet was a small one. I did land a huge blackjack with this method but then eventually lost my buy-in. I never tried it again since the science is kind of scarey to me.
I think many big name players actually advise against practicing it. If you can pull it off, you'll be immortal. Comps galore, play for hours at a time without problems, etc etc..... wow what a life. I, on the other hand, am focusing on poker right now. I am still not playing for money yet but merely thinking about poker and reading about it is making money in my mind. Kind of like an upper mathematics couse, 95 % of a problem is done with the mind, the other 5 % is writing down the solution.
shuffle tracking
Posted by gui on 10-Aug-2004 21:19:32 (#9705)
I'm a newcomer who believe that the best way to crack the game is to
use shuffle tracking methods... It seems this idea is not original at
all even if i'm develloping myself my own method which have a good potential
One thing I wonder is what the most realistic assumption can we make
when we try to analyse riffs. (A riff consist of taking a pile of card
on each hand, usually half a deck, pull up the corner with the thumbs
and make the cards fall in a new pile.
In the model a created each riffed card have 50% to come from the left
pile an 50% from the right one. Every riffs is possible that way. A
sequence of 10 cards in a row from the same pile is possible in this model (still rare).
I disagree with the model:
1 from the same pile: 60%
2 " " " : 24%
3 " " " : 10%
4 " " " : 4%
5 " " " : 2%
which suggest a "to perfect" alternance
forest and trees
Posted by Jake {|:>) on 15-Aug-2004 13:51:31 (#9732)
I suggest that the model is not bad, but so what? What you need to understand for tracking purposes is that if you know the count of those two grabs how many times they are riffed stripped etc. the resultant order is not the most important thing. That the predicted count of the grab pair remains invariant is. If you are sequencing, a much different technique, then order and position are paramount. Better decide what you are doing.
My answers to August Poll
Posted by zengrifter on 11-Aug-2004 20:15:03 (#9715)
Which of the following have you done after a large loss?
X Get angry
X Get depressed
X Steam (raise bets)
X Study/practice
0 Whine/complain
X Doubt yourself
X Suspect cheating
X Quit playing
X Other
X Handle it calmly
No whining!
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Aug-2004 20:17:53 (#9716)
I am a big whiner ... but not about gambling losses (mostly about working too hard, or my mother). Our losses suck. But a phrase someone told me years ago always runs through my mind as I dump my checks: "worry about those things you can control."
Meteor Shower Tonite (see nonBJ board) *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 11-Aug-2004 20:25:28 (#9717)
Laughlin Games
Posted by gross on 13-Aug-2004 12:01:17 (#9725)
I'm planning a trip to Laughlin in October. Anyone have a suggestion of where to play? Are the games better/same or worse than downtown LV. Thanks.
Comments
Posted by The Mayor on 13-Aug-2004 12:17:19 (#9726)
Laughlin is small enough that you can easily check out all the games for yourself. There are some excellent single deck games in Laughlin, but you have to work hard to get down any real money, or spread more than 2-1. I found some R07 and R08 single deck.
Take the water taxi often. It is the only way to travel between the casinos.
--Mayor
a little slow on the jargon..
Posted by BradRod on 13-Aug-2004 16:14:54 (#9727)
what are R07 and R08 ?
Rules
Posted by Cyrano on 13-Aug-2004 17:06:16 (#9728)
Rule of 7 (RO7) = 1 player, 6 rounds; 2 players, 5 rounds, 3 players, 4 rounds...
# of players + # of rounds = "Rule of X". This is the standard for penetration in SD games.
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