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No more playing tired
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 15-Aug-2004 01:50:33 (#9729)
What a bad day/night session. Played for 10 hours straight (after playing 3 hours the night before), was up $1500, walked out of the place down $1300. That alone is no big deal, worst part is I caught myself making mistakes half asleep at the table. And one thing I know about being tired: if you are tired and catching your own mistakes, there are always other mistakes you are not catching. The mind cannot analyze itself. I've got to figure out some way to work around this.
don't lose sight of the scenario that...
Posted by gehrig on 15-Aug-2004 02:07:45 (#9730)
you're continually batting against a fresh pitcher and umpire. besides having pockets that drag on the ground, the joints have a deep bench.
your sleep/sharpness is but another limitation to your play, same as your count's strength.
Tired...
Posted by feep on 16-Aug-2004 09:36:19 (#9733)
Yeah... I am learning to deal with this. Max session length is 3 hours.
But don't feel bad. I lost $2500 in the first 15 minutes yesterday.
Grrr.
Wow that is bad
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 16-Aug-2004 11:07:17 (#9735)
I'm good for 6-8 hours at a time it seems. Also my act calls for drinking so I have to compensate for that too. Maybe I'll only drink late in a session, because alcohol can be more fatiguing as it's wearing off than it is while drinking it.
That's a fast loss there. Takes me 1-2 hours to lose that much usually. But I'll be back at it tonight.
Sounds like that loss I had
Posted by John on 16-Aug-2004 16:41:18 (#9739)
It depends what kind of game you are playing. It sounds like you were playing single or double deck, feeb. I did the same thing on double deck a few weeks ago. It messed me up.
The answer to your problem
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 16-Aug-2004 09:38:26 (#9734)
The answer to your problem is contained in the title of your post.
I actually use this 'problem' to my advantage:
I adjust my internal clock. Wake up late at night refreshed, bright-eyed and bushy tailed, and then go hit the graveyard shift dealers in the early AM trying to keep their eyes open before they get off work. Shortly followed by the day shift dealers, rubbing the early morning sleep out of their eyes. Then I break for lunch around 9:00 AM.
Yes
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 16-Aug-2004 11:32:28 (#9737)
Good idea to sleep first.
I typically have a 3 - 5 hour drive to play. I come home from work on Friday and go right to sleep. I get up at 1 or 2 a.m. so I can be there by 4 or 5. Or, If I can't make it there by about 5 a.m., I leave right from work, get a motel and wake up at about 4:30. This strategy leaves me well rested until about 9 or 10, then I have to play it by ear.
I call these early sessions my "Fishing trips", Except I'm fishing for money!
-Felix
Mindplay
Posted by Mr. V on 16-Aug-2004 11:07:19 (#9736)
Here is a link to a thread from Gamingfloor.com concerning Mindplay, i.e.mp21.
http://www.gamingfloor.biz/forum/showthread.php?s=eb27b29609e14a9a58ee0c99826cb014&threadid=1074
Yet another way tool for the house to defeat competent card counters.
MIndplay may not be around for long *LINK*
Posted by LVBear584 on 16-Aug-2004 14:41:38 (#9738)
The Mayor and other players/player advocates have been active in trying to get the Nevada Gaming Control Board to do their job and outlaw the device. It is not easy to get them to do anything that the casinos do not want, or rule against anything that the cainsos DO want.
Mindplay has been around for almost four years now, and is only in a handful of stores -- Eldorado Reno, which was the development partner in it, Crystal Bay, Flamingo in Las Vegas (on a trial basis), and Mohegan Sun has ordered it. So far, I would have to say it has been a failure.
Better link
Posted by LVBear584 on 16-Aug-2004 17:05:47 (#9740)
Go to home page, then scroll down to: Regarding Mindplay21, Letter To GCC, GCB, Their Response
once before...
Posted by gehrig on 16-Aug-2004 21:34:14 (#9741)
the randomness of the 21 game was attacked by technology.
when the mikohn "track-jack" was debuted at a gaming show, i carefully observed the demonstration and sales presentation to industry attendees. the dealer/mikohn rep exactly stated that one of the benefits of the system, beyond evaluating a player's worth, was to alert the pit when the deck "was out of line". read, "plus" count. the particular monitor demonstrated could display the "count" on several games simultaneously. when the count went up on a particular table, the screen background could change color on that split screen window, thus alerting the pit game supervisor ('stiff) that the game was vulnerable. since there are no rules regarding early shuffle-ups on even shoe games, it's obvious that beyond "protecting the game", a 'stiff directed, early shuffle-up [breaking a shoe], absolutely is designed to stifle the randomness of the game. and that, is illegal. altering the randomness of the game is a ticket to the crowbar motel, when performed by a guest/player. apparently what's sauce for the goose is *not* sauce for the gander.
i forwarded this info along with the supporting sales literature to arnold snyder. sometime later, i noticed that snyder was a participant on a gaming discussion panel which included at least one mikohn staff member. snyder pointedly asked if the system could/would/might be used to detect card counters [to alter the randomness of the game]. as i recall, at least twice the mikohn rep denied that the system could/would be so used. that was exactly a lie since that was contraty to their sales employees' presentation.
Not only cheats but
Posted by Victoria on 17-Aug-2004 13:19:10 (#9746)
if you are a non counter but a comp hussler I think you will not like it either.
The corporations selling devices like Mindplay understand their customers very well. Casinos are paranoid about counters and they also feel that some customers are getting seriously over comped. Here we have Mindplay that can eliminate both of these problems and save you money. That is the pitch and there is nothing in it for any player who has the slightest idea of how most casinos work. Pay less comps and throw the counters out, a win win situation.
The gaming board can get all the promises they want that the card counting ability of Mindplay will not be used by the house to shuffle up early when a game is in the players favor. Human and corporate nature, in my opinion, is exactly the same here. Someone, somewhere will use that ability if it is their.
That might be the only part of this monster that we can complain about. Detecting an advantage player by use of a computer is legal and comps are not mandatory.
It's a lose - lose situation.
Posted by Peewee Potter on 17-Aug-2004 23:23:25 (#9751)
If you think mindplay is a win-win strategy for casinos and they dont have to give out comps, then me just wondering how long a casino can stay in business giving out no comps and using mindgames...oops,I mean mindplay. There's only 2 casinos that have accepted MP and one of them owns it,so you go figure it out. Thousand of other casinos have had over 4 years to try MP and none of them use it,so it's nothing to worry about and must not be as good you think.
I LOVE IT!!!!!
Posted by Sonny on 17-Aug-2004 14:54:32 (#9747)
> the particular monitor demonstrated could display the "count" on several
> games simultaneously. when the count went up on a particular table, the
> screen background could change color on that split screen window, thus
> alerting the pit game supervisor ('stiff) that the game was vulnerable.
That sounds great! Instead of walking around the pit and counting down every table like a sucker, I could just watch the computer in the pit. Maybe they could attach it to a PA system like Walmart.
Just think of the announcements!
"Hot shoe, Pit 2!"
"Table 8, plus four!"
"Table 12, plus one, yellow alert!"
"Table 16, minus 2. Hey, wait...where are you all going?! You can't ALL have to go to the bathroom!"
So what if we bring a computer too
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 17-Aug-2004 16:48:54 (#9748)
Comps are part of the deal in casinos, and if casinos advertise comps, they are legally obliged to deliver them. And if they are using a computer to rate them, we have a legal right to be sure that the computer is functioning properly.
So we should all bring our own computers to the table, and use them to check the accuracy of the comp-rating function of Mindplay. And I promise not to use mine to count cards or track shuffles. It would be a tough case for the casinos to win, if a player uses a computer to do the exact same thing Mindplay is doing, ostensibly for the same reason.
more stuff..
Posted by gehrig on 17-Aug-2004 21:52:36 (#9750)
1] i erred in recalling the names of the mikohn systems. the first one was to protect the baccarat game and was called "safe-bac". the later, 21 system was "safe-jac".
2] beyond detecting cheating, it appears (to me from seminars) that the industry stress is on player evaluation. that automatically involves player tracking. and, an accurate system would negate overcomping.
certain properties monitor pit issued comps from surveillance. that would check the comp #101 ploy of placing a larger wager only when the few times/hour that the 'stiff slithers up to the table. another value to the joint is that the nickel bettors fall through the cracks in most player evaluation systems. some of these red players camp for hours at a table yet never get on the comp radar.
one tracking system i saw previewed had slots at the table edge, much like slot card readers. when a player didn't insert a card, it was displayed on a console and the 'stiff would worry the player. the objective of table game player evaluation/tracking is to achieve the automated, "accurate" data as on slots.
thus the days of the already limited, pit comp slip, might be vanishing. those were the days when one could flash a b.r., buy-in with a few hundred at a mid-strip joint, and with a fake name, get a ducat for the coffee shop.
I will do a Mindplay report...
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 18-Aug-2004 01:03:50 (#9752)
... when it comes to Mohegan Sun. This is a place where I have played an awful lot and can spread with no heat. (Mohegan is the smallest casino in CT but still larger than any in Nevada or NJ.) $25-2x$200 draws no attention, and a dealer once told me they are only looking for teams. So this will be a good test of the capabilities of the system; same house before and after Mindplay. My guess is they are going to be using it just for comps so they can lay off a PC from each pit who apparently does nothing but rate players. But we'll see.
Mindplay weakness
Posted by oldnewbie on 20-Aug-2004 22:49:33 (#9803)
The casino owners have to remember, any system that runs on a computer network can and will be hacked. Imagine what havoc a hacker could wreak with a system like this! Most of the malicious little twerps aren't even in it for the money; they just like to see the grownups run around and squeal like stuck pigs for awhile. If mindplay becomes the rule rather than the exception, it might make for tighter controls for awhile, but it will be fun to watch.
I lost again.
Posted by John on 17-Aug-2004 05:51:52 (#9742)
Back to back losses. I hate them. I've had back to back 100 unit losses. One of them was on a double deck game where I was spreading like a madman. Tonight, it was on a 6 deck game. I got plenty of good true counts but lost nearly everytime I increased my bet. I think I have PTBOD - Post Traumatic Back off Disorder . I'm doing dumb things like increasing my bet in negative counts for cover. I would have never done these things several months ago. I'm so worried about being backed off or confronted that I'm not focusing on making money. I'm playing perfectly as far as indices and playing goes but betting dumb.
I growing a real hatred for pit bosses. I never had that before when I first started. Whenever anything at all is called out like "coloring up 500" or something, they nearly run over to the table. Yeah, the guy on 2nd base probably has a 5000 dollar bet on the table when your table max is only 500 dollars. I have ESP , I KNOW when a blackjack is coming.
good news...
Posted by gehrig on 17-Aug-2004 11:09:35 (#9743)
is that apparently the game is technically attackable. the alternative game modifications [csm, shallow max/min limits, "mindplay", et alii], i suggest are worse.
while the "authorities" wail about aggressive/intellectually challenged pitstiffs, i welcome those games. the downtown lv games are examples. those joints are well aware that their games are attackable. rather than "tightening" the games as is chic on the strip, these sawdust joint operators elect to ratchet up the sweat.
bottom line is that i enthusiastically visit those sweat joints and play the 'stiffs, not just the mechanical, droll game.
What's the worst that can happen?
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 17-Aug-2004 12:27:43 (#9744)
You should consider backoffs to be a badge of honor. I used to worry about it too, then I went to a venue that I wasn't planning on returning to for a while and got backed off intentionally, just so I could get used to it. It's no big deal, really. Just concentrate on the technical aspects of playing the game, once you get deep into winning mode and start getting heat you can refine your play further.
Another folly: back August 30.
Posted by The Mayor on 17-Aug-2004 12:46:08 (#9745)
Off to Costa Rica for a few days (I'll let you know about the casinos, but this one is just for fun).
Back August 30.
--Mayor
Thanks for inviting me!
Posted by Learning to count on 19-Aug-2004 07:18:06 (#9764)
I guess the wife is a bit better looking any way. Have fun and win some money. Bring me a dollar chip from there! For my collection! LTC
From the trenches
Posted by Learning to count on 18-Aug-2004 19:03:34 (#9755)
Just some funny stories from gambling heaven.
I did a one week tour of lost wages with the team earlier this summer. Overall we did great on BJ but lost on other advantage games. During an extended play on a nice six deck shoe at some routine type lost wages casino I was betting nicely into a growing positive edge. I was making the called for plays according to the index when a losing ploppy commented on my "luck" and my moves.
He warned me that he was an experienced gambler, "over 30 years of losing", and that his so called gambling friends who were "professionals" would not take kindly to my splitting tens, hitting soft 18 against nine, ten, or ace, etc. etc.. He advised me that I could bring trouble on my self. After a few minutes of his veiled whining threats I turned to him and leaned into his face and exclaimed "what sane person would fu%k with a face like this".
I must say that I can look pretty evil when I want to. Ask the mayor he will vouch for my actors ability to look mean and evil. The ploppy backed off and stuttered "uh uh well ya gotta be careful I guess".
I quickly grabbed his arm and smiled hey I was just teasing you. He sheepishly smiled and quieted down. A few hands later and he pulled in the few red chips he had left and said good bye.
The dealer looked up at me and said that was the funniest thing I ever saw. She admitted that she had to pee bad after that show. She was relieved and ran to the potty. Later I cashed in over $800 and left the dealer a few red chips, (I know auto ape I dont tip), because she and I had a built a good association and she never called checks play on my act. Next day this payed off big.
On another day we found a dealer in another lost wages type casino where the dealer must of been the owner. He was dealing to a few cards left in the deck. The table was full but my cousin Panther counter wonged in and started decimating the chip rack. I wanted in bad but none of the asssh0l# ploppies would lose all their chips. One old bat was sitting at first base losing that months mortgage payment and every time she would go down to a few red chips she would yank out another C-note. Panther started a conversati0on with her and started lecturing to her about the evils of gambling especially when one was on a bad losing streak. Panther has a way of smiling in your face as he sticks the dagger in your back. All the time the idiot kept yanking out those c-notes. Finally Panther made a comment on how she was looking tired and she should take a break. She stood up and started swearing at him, "You just want my seat, fu%k you". Panther was able to convince the PC that the woman was drunk. Panther just kept on playing and getting richer. Sadly I had to watch. It was okay because I gave him my session bankroll and doubled his bets! She ended up losing several thousand. Oh well Panther tried to be the good samaritan. We ended up rich and ate and drank for free!
One final incident made me a believer! Panther and I wonged into a healthy count and did some nominal damage to the rack. A "lucky" ploppy woman was at first base losing her breast augmentation down payment. When she was down to a few hundred in green Panther was able to convince her that a real gambler would wager the whole stack in a do or die scenario. Well she did and to our dismay got a blackjack. Well she was Panthercounters friend for life or at least until she lost. Panther then convinced her she was "lucky". Her frustrated losing husband was standing behind her whining about dinner. Panther then got him to agree that wagering the whole stack was worth it. "Hey it was the casino's money not hers!" She put it out there and BANG! Jed's a millionaire! She busted and we got the table to our selves. Poor ploppy! Hey she even thanked ole Panther for the advice!
Well well children time to go back to work. Papa needs a new fishing boat!
Hitting A,8 vs. 9,10,A??????
Posted by phantom007 on 18-Aug-2004 21:50:33 (#9757)
LTC, enjoyed the post, but come-on ma'am, hitting A,8 vs. 9,10,A??????????
Likely just trying to get "shock value" on your post.
Would I f#ck with YOUR FACE....well, depends.......dentures, beard, mustache,
etc., plus "Buy me diner"...options are open!
GRIN!
ph.7.
I believe it was A7 he was hitting *NM*
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 19-Aug-2004 03:13:02 (#9760)
Thanks auto-ape!
Posted by Learning to count on 19-Aug-2004 07:14:44 (#9762)
Hey Phantom maybe you should have taken a day off from the saw mill and came and gambled with panther and me. I know I know ya gotta build the BR! Maybe next time!
your act must be the magnet for the advice/criticism.
Posted by gehrig on 19-Aug-2004 00:57:03 (#9759)
were you to look like an outlaw biker or snake pliskin, the advice and all manner of criticism would cease... be they from fellow contestants, dealers, or the pit. and, you might get a little more elbow room at crowded bars or 21 tables.
Hollywood or way off Broadway
Posted by Learning to count on 19-Aug-2004 07:12:23 (#9761)
My act is basically to play at the table with what approach will have the best effect to allow me to play as long as possible to take advantage of a great game. I try to come in low key and then figure out what the environment is like. I have always been adept at being the chamelion.
Usually the players are staring at the game as is the dealer. The pit supervisor is sizing you up from affar and basically waits for the dealer to alert him. They tend to size up your play not your appearance. This is usually the case.
Close observation occurs because of bet size then your ability to play; vis a vis winning. Unless the pit knows you then all bets are off anyway. The plop in question did not really look at me physically at first. He was watching my play. If you make simple correct index plays you will draw heat; (hitting soft 18 against nine ten or ace); Especially if you draw a card the next plop believes would have "kept the flow positive" for the table.
Other than playing in the western most of the players I have played with are non-threatoning. Most are into the game win or lose. As I said I switched into that character for that brief moment. I then emediately switched back to a calm half joking half apologetic personality. If I see a great game I would probably still play it even if a skunk was at first base. Who cares how a another player looks at the tables. Its how you can take advantage of the game is what counts. Keep on counting. LTC
dont want heat,then don't play
Posted by eyesfor21 on 19-Aug-2004 09:26:29 (#9765)
some places seriously sweat some smarter places do not
care as they realize no matter how good you are
you can still get creamed!!
hit a7 is not that odd, more are learning basic these days.
so just play or don't play
Ahhhh they still exclaim why would you hit an 18! *NM*
Posted by Learning to count on 19-Aug-2004 16:42:36 (#9767)
not quite accurate.
Posted by gehrig on 19-Aug-2004 12:42:11 (#9766)
the earliest (50's ?) "counter" i recall from literature was the "greasy john" fellow who would join/open a table and bring out a bag of fried chicken. those were the days when there was little concern for placing items on the layout. other players apparently left the table, unrelated to his play of any hand. thus his appearance and that of the greasy bag of fried chicken drove them off.
unsavory or threatening appearing players, those who smoked offensive smelling materials, or even those with filthy/odorous clothing might do the same thing today. that before *any* hand might have been dealt. of course, i'd stick around to watch the act, though "ploppies" likely would vamoose and the 'stiffs might stand back and attend to other duties.
those who cannot think out of the box are fair grist for the pit game protection cum surveillance apparat. relying on a few, close, "bad"/"cover" plays sure wouldn't mask advantage play from me. would you be so fooled ?
Bad plays for cover
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 19-Aug-2004 17:33:43 (#9768)
I don't know, in today's game with player's cards why make a bad play for cover? The backoff doesn't come from the pit usually, but from upstairs where your record at the casino is treated as a whole. So when I want cover, I go play slots for a while, and I make it a point to lose at least 5% of my EV in negative EV games. I get it all back in coupons.
freebie...
Posted by gehrig on 19-Aug-2004 19:32:57 (#9771)
better is to have someone else crank the mileage on your player's card. thus the player profile is bulked up with "good" play. since *so far*, the slot card reader is not specific to the actual player, this'll work. while slot machines are monitored by the eye, the spacing of these cameras results in poor images, not amenable as i've seen, to quality identification. and surely not useful for biometric imaging/identification.
to blow your own funds, whatever percentage, on at least slots, is unprofitable. the only time i do that...the usual suspect, adjacent dice table or bank of slots, is when i exit a table under pitstiff attention.
Good point auto ape...
Posted by Learning to count on 19-Aug-2004 19:53:14 (#9773)
I play video poker from time to time if there are any 9/6 machines. I used to do this at the Palms. Make sure you know perfect strategy first! Great comps at the dollar machines!
Greasy Fried Chicken, Smoking things that Smell Funny......
Posted by phantom007 on 20-Aug-2004 18:31:28 (#9791)
sounds like the Western to me....2004, not 1950's.
BTW, why/how could one be threatened at the Western?
phantom007.
one thing about the western is that...
Posted by gehrig on 20-Aug-2004 19:49:03 (#9794)
a senior manager hasn't "accidently" succumbed to a "designer" drug overdose.
i wonder if that casino will name a cocktail after the fellow. what rhymes with fentanyl ?
what rhymes with fentanyl?
Posted by Sonny on 21-Aug-2004 17:57:49 (#9807)
Feelin' ill
Sleepin' pill
Pharmacy bill
Feel a chill
Floorman kill
Gentle frill
Dented quill
Infertile
Final will
Frigid still
Deadened shill
Massengill
Well, maybe that last one's not a good name for a cocktail...but we could make a pretty good song with all that stuff!
-Sonny-
that one option, "pharmacy bill"...
Posted by gehrig on 22-Aug-2004 01:38:23 (#9810)
might be the go-to guy/bartender for the yet to be named, "house special" refreshment.
330K gone in a week....
Posted by suicyco maniac on 18-Aug-2004 23:14:16 (#9758)
Any 1 listen to the Howard Stern show this morning...KC Armstrong (an employee of the show) Won 330K on let it ride only to lose it all in a week.....Hard to believe how addiction can grab some people..SM
Hey it was the casino's money!
Posted by Learning to count on 19-Aug-2004 07:16:32 (#9763)
I would have bought a rental house with that. What a fool!
330K cash is worth even more
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 19-Aug-2004 17:56:15 (#9769)
I would have leveraged it into 5 rental units with an 80% LTV on each. Then let the tenants pay the PITI debt. :-)
Or as Yogi would say
Posted by revereman on 20-Aug-2004 09:10:38 (#9779)
They give you cash, which is just as good as money. AFLAC!
Report from Costa Rica
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Aug-2004 18:22:14 (#9770)
So far I've been to two casinos. There is no blackjack (the offer a similar game, called Rummy -- dealt from CSMs). There are no other identifyable games at which one can gain an edge. For example, the video poker is 7-5 JOB (if you know what I mean...)
I am writing from the computers in the lobby of the Hotel Santo Tomas in downtown San Jose Costa Rica. Yes, I am having a great time!
-Mayor
Hey mayor get me a dollar cheque
Posted by Learning to count on 19-Aug-2004 19:51:21 (#9772)
with the name of the casino on it for my collection. Go and take a river rapids raft trip from the volcano. I took it with my daughter two xmas' ago. It is a blast.
200 Colones
Posted by The Mayor on 20-Aug-2004 09:22:07 (#9780)
There are no $ checks that I could spy, so you get a 200 Colones check.
I went back late last night to a casino here to see if things were different ... what a piece of crap. That's reason enough to never consider living here.
--Mayor
Video VP
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 20-Aug-2004 20:54:10 (#9799)
Hi Eliot. Thanks for that info. Casino at the Hilton here but no cards, only VP. My wife and I droped in and while she was playing quarter slots I found a VP and played Jacks or better. 25 cents but played 1.25 so I could hit the progressive which I ended up doing in about 10 minutes. Got a straight flush in clubs and won 273.50. Now I can't get on that machine anymore...laugh. You should see some of the poker strategies. scary
Mayor,how is the Blue Marlin?
Posted by pat on 29-Aug-2004 09:08:54 (#9896)
I miss it.The blackjack sucks there.Just play the 25.00 match plays they hand out at the door and you will make more ev than playing that crap rummy.get a girl to play the other 25.00 MP and you will pay for your room for the week.
It's over.
Posted by John on 19-Aug-2004 22:58:44 (#9774)
I'm sorry guys. I can't play blackjack anymore. It's been fun. I made lots of money (well not enough). It's not about bankroll. I can't take the swings of the finances and emotional. I had a really bad day today. It wasn't on the blackjack table and had nothing to do with a casino. I've loved listening to your stories. Things are just different now. I feel like I've lost myself today. Feel free to delete this if you wish.
losing streaks
Posted by Ed on 19-Jan-2005 05:34:02 (#11814)
Whats the worst losing streak in Units you've ever taken.
regards
Ed
losing streaks
Posted by Sonny on 19-Jan-2005 12:06:33 (#11816)
> Whats the worst losing streak in Units you've ever taken.
I lost 200 units in my first year of counting. It was devastating, but it showed me how difficult this can be. I'm glad I learned it early because it really pushed me to become a better player and showed me the grim reality of variance. The next time I hit a streak like that my bankroll will be prepared.
-Sonny-
not absolutely sure
Posted by gorilla player on 19-Jan-2005 12:09:11 (#11817)
about a month ago, I started with $1000, played $5-$40 at DD games, went from $1000 to $2265 over maybe 6-8 hours of playing. Went back one last time as we were leaving for home, went from $2265 to $900, which is $1365 or 273 units. Eventually ended up at +1650 or so before leaving.
Sometimes you hit those where at high counts, the dealer makes hand after hand, or gets natural after natural while you get nothing but stiffs and stand and lose or hit and bust...
Fortunately there are the streaks in the other direction as well.
500 units *NM*
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 19-Jan-2005 12:49:51 (#11819)
losses
Posted by stainless steel rat on 19-Jan-2005 14:22:56 (#11822)
Someone asked this question elsewhere (I don't remember where) and someone responded that they had lost almost 1000 units (actually something well over 900 but I don't recall the answer). Certainly sounds ugly. General idea is that the longer/more you play, the farther outside the center of the bell curve your results can wander. If someone has played for 30+ years, regularly, they must have seen some horrendous consecutive losses (as well as some incredible consecutive wins of course).
my most recent is about 120 MAX bets *NM*
Posted by suicyco maniac on 19-Jan-2005 19:47:21 (#11829)
Sorry buddy
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 19-Aug-2004 23:10:25 (#9775)
I felt that way last night too. I felt it at the beginning of a shoe. But by the end of that shoe, I felt like the luckiest man in the world for being able to count cards because I had just pocketed 2 weeks pay in black and was headed for the door. Sorry that you ended up on the wrong side of the bell curve where blackjack is concerned, may you have a long and happy life to make up for it.
It aint over 'til it's over
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 19-Aug-2004 23:16:43 (#9776)
You probably just need a long break. Maybe just some time to clear your mind, get some other things in order and come back later with your game sharpened.
The game will most likely be there when you're ready.
It's over
Posted by shuffle on 20-Aug-2004 07:34:34 (#9777)
Six months ago I told myself I would never play again. I destroyed all my records, cut up all the comp cards, took up golf again with a close friend. Now I'm playing a round of golf every time I go to the casino! Back in the saddle...
My Experience
Posted by revereman on 20-Aug-2004 14:19:23 (#9784)
I also cut up all of my comp cards and then got charged $10 for parking instead of the $4 that card holders were charged (in AC). I vowed never to play again after two big losses (I realize others have had longer and bigger losing streaks) but someone it's hard to get out of your system.
You need to...
Posted by Learning tocount on 20-Aug-2004 08:04:48 (#9778)
1. Take a break.
2. Change your routine.
3. Consider ending your gambling career.
4. Concentrate on responsible endeavors.
5. Admit that your a degenerate gambler with only a 1% edge over the casino.
6. Then when you get over all this shite get the ole bankroll back and hammer those tables!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
why?
Posted by eyesfor21 on 20-Aug-2004 13:25:02 (#9783)
If it was not due to gamling then what or why?
Because he said
Posted by Learning to count on 20-Aug-2004 14:40:48 (#9785)
I'm sorry guys. ""I can't play blackjack anymore."" ... ""I can't take the swings of the finances and emotional.""....I had a really bad day today. It wasn't on the blackjack table and had nothing to do with a casino. I've loved listening to your stories. Things are just different now. I feel like I've lost myself today. Feel free to delete this if you wish.
So what was it BJ or personal tragedy??? I hope he is okay anyway. It probably was another GAME????????
Consider it every day...
Posted by Feep on 20-Aug-2004 16:37:28 (#9787)
>> 3. Consider ending your gambling career.
We need to consider this every single day. Because if you can't choose to stop, you aren't choosing to play. I too am taking a break after a pretty bad streak. I am questioning myself (where the hell DID all those 6s come from?, really, WHERE?). And most importantly for my stage, I'm not having fun. I'm doing this to have fun! It'll be fun again in a couple / three months. Then...
...I'll be back.
Feep
Take a Break
Posted by MrPill on 20-Aug-2004 09:27:55 (#9781)
John,
Yes BJ can be and is an emotional rollercoaster, as is life in general.
Take some time away from the game to get your other "things" in order. The game will still be here when you get back.
Good Luck,
Pill
Losing
Posted by dbase on 13-Jan-2005 07:56:55 (#11748)
Losing Streaks:
How bad is bad. How many units.
How many months/years?
regards
dbase
lots of answers
Posted by stainless steel rat on 13-Jan-2005 09:55:27 (#11753)
Depends on the game, the rules, the penetration, your skill and then lady luck.
I'm in the middle of a recently-started experiment. Since sims only go so far in telling you what to expect, since sims expect perfect play and betting and counting, which is unlikely over the long-haul for a human to do, I have done this test twice so far, and am keeping records as I repeat it several times over the coming year I hope.
I started with a bankroll of exactly $1000, after a discussion with my son. I decided to play DD only, spreading $5-$40, heads up, or $5 to 2 x $25 if there was another player at the table.
First experiment was a little skewed because I wanted to answer the question "can you double your bankroll playing as above?"
I started at $1000, reached a peak of $2265, but played another two sessions after that and ended up with some wild variance, dropping all the way back to just under $1000 before ending up at 1650 or so after about 1400-1500 hands played.
I again started at $1000, and hit $2200 (where I stopped) after about 500-600 hands.
So two passes so far. I am probably going to toss the first experiment since I should have stopped when I doubled, and started over. Had I done so, I might well have gone bankrupt on my second session since that tail-end variance on the first test was larger than my $1000 trip bankroll for the experiment.
What does this mean? That there are fluctuations. In this second trial, the variance was pretty smooth. Never lost more than $200 before climbing back and going higher...
I'm going to repeat this a few times as I'm now really interested in what _I_ can do as opposed to what a sim does. I can play BS perfectly. I can count using the CV blackjack drills with almost perfect accuracy, and over 2 deck drills I almost never make a counting error. But I do on occasion mis-calculate the true count by missing the remaining deck estimate, which can lead to a betting error or a BS departure index error. I don't make many of these, and have played hour+ sessions on CV BJ with no betting or playing errors, but I also play the same sessions and make an occasional error here and there. I don't have the option of introducing errors (that I can find) in CVCX running sims, so I'm running a "real sim" by doing it myself. :)
I could do this by just playing a 1-hour session on CVBJ every night, but even though the BJ program is _very_ good, it is not a casino, those are not real dollars, etc...
The moral of this is that you can win, but there are definitely losing stretches thrown in. If they come after a winning session, they are not as painful as when they occur at the start and drain your BR to zero if it isn't big enough. No, I don't normally gamble spreading $5-40, with a BR of $1000, the ROR is too high. But I have seen several talk about playing like this so it seemed like something interesting to try and appealed to the "scientist" in me.
More on this as the experiment progresses. If I had run the first test correctly, laying all the rounds played so far end-to-end would suggest that by starting at $1000, three times I have doubled the BR, once I went bust. My real BR has grown by over $2000 so far, and I am fixing to start the next round by dropping back to $1000 and starting again...
About 10 months now of full time play *NM*
Posted by suicyco maniac on 13-Jan-2005 22:37:11 (#11765)
550 hrs,..
Posted by Alexander Mundy on 15-Jan-2005 13:01:34 (#11784)
900+ units - playing single deck exclusively. One other time about 780 units.
losing2
Posted by Ed on 21-Jan-2005 07:26:20 (#11845)
What are the odds of losing this many units. 900 in single deck?
regards
dbase
basic idea
Posted by stainless steel rat on 21-Jan-2005 14:56:05 (#11848)
P(losing huge number of units) > 0.0
For example, we take one dice, you get 1-2-3-4-5 and I get 6. you roll and if you hit one of your numbers I pay you 1:1. If you hit my number, you pay me 1:1. Most likely I will go bankrupt. But on occasion, you will go broke rolling many 6's...
It isn't likely, but probability doesn't care. It can come up at any time, and if you are unlucky it can come up more often than it should. You might also play a bunch of sessions and win every one...
The more you play, the more the "unevenness" smoothes out and things are not as painful as they can be over a very short term experience.
Best Wishes John!
Posted by SammyBoy on 20-Aug-2004 10:42:05 (#9782)
I think we've all been where you are, I know I have more than once. I even gave away all my gambling books at one point.
I am sorry
Posted by Sohrab on 20-Aug-2004 17:40:23 (#9789)
for your pain, whatever its cause.
Find someone to talk to about whatever it was.
We are a community and we do care about you. Please be well.
John - sorry to hear
Posted by wong out on 24-Aug-2004 23:46:45 (#9841)
John:
BJ is a very tough grind and not for most. I think that there are many more interesting and enjoyable ways to spend some time than at the 21 tables. Personally, playing BJ is a chore and a grind but it has been a nice second source of income so I keep grinding away - swings and all but it is not easy.
Good luck on your future activties!
wong out
The Players' Club
Posted by zengrifter on 20-Aug-2004 16:37:33 (#9788)
Appeared in last week's Mercury -
http://www.lasvegasmercury.com/2004/MERC-Aug-12-Thu-2004/24500567.html
Nice Read.....
Posted by phantom007 on 20-Aug-2004 18:26:19 (#9790)
Hope they "make it in business". Always intend to "check it out" when in LV, but never seem to get there.
Please advise:
1. Is the GBS within walking distance of Strip or DT stores?
2. Does their selection include "out of print" stuff?
3. What is an "Alternative Newspaper"?
phantom007.
responses
Posted by zengrifter on 20-Aug-2004 19:04:06 (#9792)
1. Is the GBS within walking distance of Strip or DT stores?
no
2. Does their selection include "out of print" stuff?
yes
3. What is an "Alternative Newspaper"?
non-mainstream
Went there a couple of months ago......Bi
Posted by BJ_Player2004 on 21-Aug-2004 12:48:15 (#9805)
Big place with a good selection of books. I bought BJA3 and Burning the Tables there.
Read My Post Below
Posted by Radar on 24-Aug-2004 17:05:29 (#9824)
The store is actually off of Charleston. (Which is off of Main). It is not on Charleston, but it about a 200 feet back off the street and sits on a corner...can't miss that sign, though.
Everyone knows where it is, just stop and ask someone if you can't find it.
Great read, Great store, Lots of voodoo books ...
Posted by Learning to count on 20-Aug-2004 20:31:45 (#9795)
as well as a complete collection of BJ books. I have visited there several times and have had different experiences ranging from "we are right happy to help you" to "hey another sucker here have a sucker". Didnt you work there Zengrifter?
""....Mixed in with the legends are pictures of problem gamblers--guys like Pete Rose (who's pictured with Schwartz on one of the store's walls) and Archie Karas (the golden-armed gambler who turned $10,000 into $17 million and then lost it all). In the northwest corner of the shop, Schwartz singles out a photo of Little Eddie Seremba, who took his Social Security check and ran it up to $800,000 in three days while playing craps at Binion's Horseshoe and Jerry's Nugget. "A week later, he lost every penny," Schwartz says. "Total degenerate.""" .... whew what a$$holes these guys were! Wasn't Pete rose a degenerate sports gambler too. ; )
I Saw
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 20-Aug-2004 20:42:03 (#9798)
Elvis and Grifter together there. G was trying to teach El how to count and El was trying to teach G how to sing. Then they were both abducted but aliens from A51.
Didnt you work there Zengrifter?
Posted by zengrifter on 21-Aug-2004 13:59:39 (#9806)
No, Gambler's General Store. zg
"... his 11th Street bookstore is called the Gambler's Book Shop--not only because it's often mistaken for the Gambler's General Store on Main Street..."
I was actually There, too!
Posted by Radar on 24-Aug-2004 17:11:19 (#9825)
The old guy there gave me the instructions to the store. I doubt that was you, since I remember reading a post where you said you worked there before I went last week?
Nice guy, though...
Bought some Double Diamond visors to look "real cool" for a tourist so I could play a little. It worked, wasn't backed off and asked about my "cool" visor and where did I get it. Of course, I told them and told them to ask for Zengrifter to get the best deal ;)
Perfect description of Keno!
Posted by Sonny on 21-Aug-2004 18:13:04 (#9808)
> "They shot at the sky long enough and a duck flew by," says Schwartz.
I have never heard it put so well. =)
-Sonny-
Howard Schwartz
Posted by Radar on 24-Aug-2004 17:02:47 (#9823)
Just returned from Vegas and stopped in Gambler's Book Shop to see what kind of BJ books they had. Found a couple of "Oldies but Goodies" and some really "old" BJ Forums in the backroom. While there, Howard came in and introduced himself to me. I have seen him in the "Hot Shoe" and elsewhere but never in person. To say the least, he was as friendly and helpful as the article states. We even had a conversation about The Bishop.
For those of you that have never been here, it is a MUST on your next stop in Vegas!
Radar
Howard Schwartz
Posted by Rob Vega on 26-Aug-2004 15:42:56 (#9868)
Yeah, I finally went there after many, many years. I was methodically describing each photo on the wall to my girlfriend, who was dutifully pretending to be interested. Howard noticed (and doing what sounds like his MO) came over and started chatting to me about all the famous players, dropping names shamelessly. He filled out a lot of the stories you've only read about. He then sold me his last copy of a Ken Uston Video Games book for a buck. A steal at twice the price!
Come to think of it, I was just reading over a book I purchased on that trip not more than an hour ago... Anyway, it's not often a trip to the bookstore is fun and memorable. You don't get that from Amazon.
Rob Vega
Definitely worth the Stop!
Posted by Radar on 26-Aug-2004 22:33:29 (#9874)
"Yeah, I finally went there after many, many years. I was methodically describing each photo on the wall to my girlfriend, who was dutifully pretending to be interested. Howard noticed (and doing what sounds like his MO) came over and started chatting to me about all the famous players, dropping names shamelessly. He filled out a lot of the stories you've only read about. He then sold me his last copy of a Ken Uston Video Games book for a buck. A steal at twice the price!
Come to think of it, I was just reading over a book I purchased on that trip not more than an hour ago... Anyway, it's not often a trip to the bookstore is fun and memorable. You don't get that from Amazon."
It would be neat to get inside his mind and hear his stories, wouldn't it? Will definitely revisit on my next trip, for sure!
No BJ at Barnes & Noble.....MAYBE GOOD!
Posted by phantom007 on 20-Aug-2004 19:09:55 (#9793)
My local B&N store, for the last few years, had an excellent selection of BJ books...major/popular titles by Wong, Schlessinger(sp?), Carlson, etc., as well as a few dozen other titles/authors who I did not recognize (and after I bought several of these books, I understood why).
These BJ books were sorted with other gaming books, including craps, poker, roulette, etc. Gambling books, however, were separated from other "games", i.e., chess, cribbage, etc.
However, this week, when I visited this store and this section, I found:
1. Books on Poker.
2. Books on Poker.
3. More of the SAME!
ESSENTIALLY NOTHING BUT POKER BOOKS IN THE Gambling/Gaming SECTION!
Initially upset/concerned, I later realized that "MAYBE THIS IS GOOD (for BJ)!
Certainly, with the "MIT Book", and multiple History Channel, Discovery Channel, etc. shows that followed, I feared that "our game was dead"!
However, with all of the "hype" for Poker on TV, media, etc., maybe the SALVATION for BJ! Divert the attention away from BJ as the primary advantage game. Sweet!
Now not to totally disparage the game of Poker...I play it myself, and at least for the last 2 years, to slight advantage....with about the same amount of effort/practice that it took me to learn Basic Strategy for BJ.
Anyhow, KUDOS to B&N! POKER IS THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN!
phantom007.
GOLDEN AGE
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 20-Aug-2004 21:26:23 (#9802)
This is the Golden Age of Poker. "Basic Strategy" Poker can be profitable, while you look for those juicy blackjack games. And if you can't get out to the B&M casino, there are 50,000 fish every night on Party Poker waiting to give you their money. A true Advantage Player goes where ever the advantage is.
Hooray!
Posted by Sonny on 21-Aug-2004 18:20:41 (#9809)
> However, with all of the "hype" for Poker on TV, media, etc., maybe the
> SALVATION for BJ! Divert the attention away from BJ as the primary advantage
> game. Sweet!
Just as long as they don't convert any of the BJ tables into poker tables!
Nah, that would be too expensive. They'll probably just invent "mini-poker" games. The prospectus will read "Why not? They fell for mini-craps and mini-baccarat!"
-Sonny-
Three-Card Poker
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 23-Aug-2004 09:23:38 (#9811)
This sucker bet is already very popular around these parts. People believe they are doing something like playing poker when they sit down at the table. I haven't played any poker since the televised poker boom began; are these people actually finding their way to the poker tables in casinos?
YESSSSSSSSS!
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 23-Aug-2004 11:21:40 (#9812)
Some table conversation I've heard the past few weeks:
(usually by people you have already lost at least a rack of chips)
"Now which is it again? Does a straight beat a flush?"
"Any two cards can win, it all depends on the flop."
"If I get two clubs, I'm raising. Clubs have come out on almost every flop."
And one of my all time favorites ---
"What is a 'kicker'?"
WPT All-In Hold 'Em table game *LINK*
Posted by TwuntyWun on 25-Aug-2004 11:02:21 (#9846)
>They'll probably just invent "mini-poker" games. The prospectus will read "Why not? They fell for mini-craps and mini-baccarat!"
They're way ahead of you. A new "World Poker Tour All-In Hold 'Em" table game that has been introduced at a casino in San Diego this summer.
Here's a link to an article about it.
One Love
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 20-Aug-2004 20:39:07 (#9797)
IRIE
Cybering it from Jamaica Hilton, $5US hr. Could make a living online from here mon! Just droping in to say wha go on. See ya in a week. Going to Ocho Rios at 5AM tomorrow.
Rob
LIFE IS GOOD MON! WIN MONEY! *NM*
Posted by Learning to count on 20-Aug-2004 20:57:08 (#9800)
what is bet spread?
Posted by newbie on 20-Aug-2004 21:13:03 (#9801)
hi, i am a total newbie and have no idea what bet spread is...
and what is wong count
and what is green chip
and what is deck penetration
and what is shoe?
thanks
oh yeah i play blackjack for fun using basic strategy only and so far i lost over $500 and i am hoping to win it back after buying a book on knockout blackjack
i play at a local casino that uses 6 decks
thanks!! any tips? thanks
definitions
Posted by Old Faithful on 21-Aug-2004 10:46:08 (#9804)
bet spread - this is your range of your bets. For instance if your base betting unit is $5 and you are using a 1-4 bet spread your betting range would be in the range of $5 to $20.
wong count? - You are probably refering to wonging out. This means to leave a table when the count indicates you are at a high disadvantage (i.e. going to the bathroom or changing tables). Named after Stanford Wong.
shoe - this is the box that the dealer puts the decks of cards in, and is usually used only in games using more than 2 decks. Therefore your local casino would be using a six-deck shoe.
green chip - a chip with the value of $25.
penetration - this is how many decks that are dealt before the dealer shuffles up. The deeper the penetration, the more opportunity for the game to go in your favor.
weak IQ.
Posted by gui on 23-Aug-2004 22:59:51 (#9813)
I love this site,
I just made the IQ test(home page>new items); score =90. Looks that I must learn
new slangs words, making simulations on single deck games and learn
about the law. I'm developping a new approach on card counting
and I regulary check this site which is the best on BJ I've ever
been (not a great compliment for one who doesn't know that much).
Thx for the humility lesson.
Thanks!
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Aug-2004 09:06:13 (#9878)
Thanks for your nice words about this site.
The IQ test (like all such tests) has several questions that are subject to debate and interpretation by the experts. But, I don't know of an expert who has scored below 150 (well, I know of one, but he was trying to misinterpret every question to prove how bad the test really is).
A score of 90 really does point to the need to study a LOT more, and gain a LOT more playing experience. Take the test again in 6 months and see where you are!
-Mayor
Omega II
Posted by Nina on 24-Aug-2004 01:45:00 (#9814)
I'm looking for opinions of counters on Omega II. Any thoughts?
An excellent system, but difficult to learn *NM*
Posted by Sonny on 24-Aug-2004 16:28:36 (#9821)
on Omega II
Posted by Oghi on 25-Aug-2004 21:23:29 (#9859)
Sony,
what makes you think Omega II is more complex than Hi Opt II with an Ace side count, to me it's almost the same! please, coment! thnaks!!!
They are nearly identical
Posted by Sonny on 27-Aug-2004 11:50:18 (#9883)
The tags are the same except 9=-1 and 6=+2 (instead of +1). There is a mild improvement in the Insurance Correlation of the Hi-Opt II.
I use the Hi-Opt II myself, but I don't think it would be more difficult to learn the AOII. My only concern was that it is difficult for a beginner to pick up a level 2 system with an ace side count. Since I assumed that Nina was a beginner looking for a good system I thought I should mention that it can be a bit tough.
If you are moving up from a level 1 system, I think that both systems are excellent. I might also advise the Zen system since it avoids the side count. That makes it much simpler for playing shoe games. It captures almost all of the betting power and the same Insurance Correlation of AOII.
Any system will become second nature to you once you get enough practice, so if you are dedicated enough I highly recommend these 3 systems. Just my opinions.
-Sonny-
Hi Nina
Posted by SammyBoy on 27-Aug-2004 15:36:08 (#9886)
I started out with Hi/Lo and then switched to Advanced Omega II. At first it was very difficult, and I actually wondered if I would ever become as proficient with AOII as I was with Hi/Lo. In my opinion, if you are playing single and double deck AOII is the way to go. If you are willing to work at it and practice I believe anyone can learn this system. Are you using any counting system now?
Basic Omega II
Posted by Nina on 28-Aug-2004 22:23:08 (#9893)
Yes, I've just started using the Basic Omega II and have been so far, successful with it.
How often do you play? I'm curious, what the average gain/loss is.
Read This
Posted by SammyBoy on 31-Aug-2004 17:10:18 (#9932)
It's a small sample, but check this out...
http://www.cardcounter.com/main.pl?read=9869
It's been pretty dead around here
Posted by SammyBoy on 24-Aug-2004 11:52:30 (#9816)
I hope you're all out taking money from the casinos!
RE: It's been pretty dead around here *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Michael Dalton on 24-Aug-2004 15:19:08 (#9819)
Everyone must be eagerly waiting for David McDowell's new book, "Blackjack Ace Prediction", to become available.
Sorry, couldn't resist!
How long are you going to make us wait?!
Posted by Sonny on 24-Aug-2004 16:45:29 (#9822)
It seems like my copy has been on pre-order forever. =(
-Sonny-
Michael, tell us...
Posted by zengrifter on 24-Aug-2004 19:15:31 (#9830)
... how this new book goes beyond David Morse, in terms of actual application. Thanks, zg
All will be revealed very soon! *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Michael Dalton on 25-Aug-2004 05:44:36 (#9843)
David Morse's book doesn't explain or provide any real detail in the actual technique of Ace sequencing and predicting Aces. Morse does provide an interesting memorization technique though.
All will be revealed very soon regarding David McDowell's new book Blackjack Ace Prediction.
I've just been informed my ETA for the books is now August 26. Folks who pre-ordered should have their copies next week.
Yes
Posted by The Mayor on 28-Aug-2004 08:38:01 (#9890)
I read an early version of this book. Among its multitude of gems, it gave a very powerful explaination of tracking aces through two common shuffles. As I recall, these were a 2 pass R&R and the stepladder shuffle (used everywhere).
There is so much to recommend in this book, that it is an absolute must for every serious advantage player looking to move beyond counting torwards much larger advantages.
Again, this site gets nothing from recommending this book (it is not even in our store). I am recommending it because it is the first really great new book to have been written in a long time. While not at the level of Beyond Counting (Grosjean), it is a book that will become a classic.
-Mayor
Got my copy this afternoon
Posted by Sonny on 30-Aug-2004 17:50:37 (#9911)
After a quick skimming I am very impressed with the content. Also, it has some great pictures! I can't wait to dive in. I'm locking my doors and taking the phone off the hook tonight!
-Sonny-
How many play poker for profit?
Posted by ladykiller on 24-Aug-2004 12:21:38 (#9817)
I myself in the last few months have become proficient at poker, online especially to make almost what I can card counting. I was wondering how many of you here play the game well enough to win at it, instead of just a hobby.
I Do
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 24-Aug-2004 19:56:40 (#9831)
I've only been studying hold em since December.
Play a lot of live $3/$6 and grind it out online at $2/$4 right now.
$200 to $300 a week pretty steady.
Careful!
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 24-Aug-2004 22:07:06 (#9835)
N=?
-Felix
Where can I find Super Fun 21 in LV
Posted by los on 24-Aug-2004 14:20:56 (#9818)
Hello fellow counters,
I have been playing SF 21 with some moderate success (maybe it's just luck). I have only been able to find it one casino and would like to exploit it in other locations. Any ideas?
If you must know, I've been using a Hi-Lo, 1-10 spread, using the SF21 basic Strategy found on this site.
I welcome any questions, comments, or advice.
Cheers,
los
Superfun list *LINK*
Posted by LVBear584 on 24-Aug-2004 18:30:02 (#9827)
Here are the Las Vegas stores with Superfun, though not all are playable. In the future, you can get this information from Current Blackjack News (link below).
SUPERFUN CASINO LIST
<u>North / Northwest</u>
Cannery
Fiesta Rancho
Jerry's Nugget
Rampart
Santa Fe Station
Speedway
Texas Station
<u>West</u>
Arizona Charlie's Decatur
Palace Station
Palms
<u>Downtown</u>
Fremont
Golden Nugget
Lady Luck
Main Street Station
Stratosphere
<u>Central</u>
Ellis Island
Hard Rock
Harrah's
Stardust
<u>Southeast</u>
Arizona Charlie's Boulder
Fiesta Henderson
Green Valley Ranch
Sam's Town
Sunset Station
Uh..bear
Posted by Felix Rue_de_Guerre on 24-Aug-2004 22:46:32 (#9837)
On another note...
I purchased that cycle tonite. I Already left Hip Hop my poker chips, so if you can identify my body, you may claim my folding bike as yor own!!, If I was run over by a CAT bus. Bring a copy of this to the LV coroners office!!!
-FeliX
Be careful out there, we really do have some nutty drivers *NM*
Posted by LVBear584 on 25-Aug-2004 18:25:57 (#9856)
bike
Posted by Felix Rue_de_Guerre on 24-Aug-2004 23:24:13 (#9838)
Bear,
I'll give you $20 to sighn my folding bicycle.
LOL
Posted by LVBear584 on 25-Aug-2004 18:08:54 (#9854)
tttthhhhheeeee bbbbbeeeeeaaaarrrrr
Don't forget the LVC!
Posted by Sonny on 25-Aug-2004 00:15:19 (#9842)
The Las Vegas Club also has "The Most Liberal 21" game, which I think has the same rules. But, as eyesfor21 said, the heat will be pretty bad. On the good side, it should be pretty easy to blend in with the other suckers at the tables.
-Sonny-
LVC "liberal" game is not Superfun *LINK*
Posted by LVBear584 on 25-Aug-2004 12:21:45 (#9849)
LV Club "liberal" game is not the same as Superfun. It has some of the same rules, but not all. The off the top house edge is higher than Superfun. Some strategies and index numbers are different. It is a double deck rather than single deck. It used to be even worse, dealt from a CSM.
I don't believe the LVC "liberal" game to be worthwhile.
BJ Switch is way better
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 25-Aug-2004 13:32:07 (#9850)
Played it at the 4 Queers, this game has a lot of potential for advantage play. The official site has game rules but doesn't have a list f casinos that deal it. Has anyone seen this game east of the Mississippi?
blackjack switch is a waste
Posted by eyesfor21 on 25-Aug-2004 16:03:09 (#9851)
the basic startegy is a lot more complicated than
all the other games,and its still not be worth the
effort.
they have it in other states too, a pit boss was the one
would told me how bad it was.
Disagree *LINK*
Posted by Geoff Hall on 26-Aug-2004 02:06:47 (#9861)
"the basic startegy is a lot more complicated than
all the other games,and its still not be worth the
effort."
The Basic Strategy is very straight forward, it's the 'switch' decisions that are difficult at times, and it would be hard to memorize them all. Nevertheless, the game has an initial house edge of 0.2% so some 'switch' errors can be done and still the game will have a lower edge than regular multi-deck Blackjack.
"they have it in other states too, a pit boss was the one
would told me how bad it was."
Pit Boss - Good Advice ? Normally those 4 words are not used in the same sentence :-) Unfortunately the uneducated will always portray that they know a lot more than they really do.
'Blackjack Switch' is only in 3 casinos in Las Vegas and 1 casino in California. The 'Push 22' version is still quite new in the USA although it can be found in about 18 casinos in Europe, mainly Russia.
Best regards
'Switch'
More on Switch
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 26-Aug-2004 10:03:09 (#9864)
Wow that's pretty cool Geoff you sell BJ Switch and you're promoting it to counters. There are two things I really like about the game. The first is its lower standard deviation allows a larger betting unit, thus more profit. The second is the larger difference made by the skill of an advantage player compared to an unskilled gambler. Casinos know about card counters at standard BJ games, but they are unlikely to realize just how much damage a counter can do at a Switch game, so there will be less scrutiny of our play. Furthermore the ploppies will see us winning and it will make the game look good (The Mayor has described this effect a few times) so the casino gets something out of our play too. But all the while there is going to be a lower percentage of the population who can count Switch than standard BJ, just because of the additional dimension added to the math by the switch move.
Too bad it's only in 4 US casinos, all on the other side of the continent from me.
Re : More on BJ Switch *LINK*
Posted by Geoff Hall on 27-Aug-2004 11:09:51 (#9881)
I suppose that I'm not really promoting it in as much as defending it from comments made about it's unsuitability for serious players. Having been a semi-professional card counter, I devised the game purposely to attract all types of players. Obviously I would hate to see the game being attacked by advantage players, in it's early stages, as ths may cause it to win far less than the regular Blackjack and subsequently be removed from the casino floor. The alternative would be to adapt the rules to allow for a higher starting house edge, which I would not like to see either.
We did some tests on the variance of the game and it was surprisingly higher than we expected. It does get streaky at times and I've seen quite lengthy winning and losing streaks on the game.
I agree that the more serious players will be able to 'Switch' better and thus create an even bigger gap between standard of play on the game. The good news is that firstly playing regular Basic Strategy on BJ Switch will only hurt the player by 0.23%, unlike 'Spanish 21' for example, and, secondly, players who 'Switch' quite poorly do not get 'burnt' at the game so they will still attain similar results to their regular Blackjack games.
Also, as it is based on regular Blackjack, casinos will still be on the lookout for those players who jump their bets even though they may not know the exact strategy of the game.
Finally, I too would like to see the game in more states and hope to make a successful push to get the game into Mississippi, Atlantic City and Indiana. The exhibition is due in early October so I will be trying hard to promote the game into as many casinos as possible and also concentrating on expanding into the Nevada market.
Best regards
Geoff
Where are the Vegas games?
Posted by Carolina Counter on 28-Aug-2004 18:23:47 (#9891)
Which casinos offer BJ Switch in Vegas....did I miss it?
Where is BJ Switch in LV
Posted by Carolina Counter on 28-Aug-2004 20:58:15 (#9892)
Which Las Vegas casinos offer BJ switch besides 4 Queens? Thanks!
With sufficient pene...
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Aug-2004 17:48:40 (#9853)
... the LVC WMLBJ might be playable with SF21 strategy. BTW, the Fremont's afternoon sf21 I saw the other day was excellent (as sf21 goes). zg
What do you mean by not "Playable"
Posted by los on 25-Aug-2004 10:12:39 (#9844)
Hey LVBear,
Thanks for the info and the link! I'll place a bet in your honor next time :)
What did you mean by not "Playable", though? The hours available, PC heat, or even less than favorable rules than the ordinary?
Happy counting!
los
"Not playable"
Posted by LVBear584 on 25-Aug-2004 18:24:56 (#9855)
What did you mean by not "Playable", though?
Any of a number of adverse conditions. The most common are poor penetration, overcrowding, excessive pit harassment, and preferential shuffling.
For example, Stratosphere Superfun policy is to deal only four rounds heads-up and three rounds to two hands. Such terrible penetraton makes the game a waste of time. If you can get any edge at all, you will make less per hour than you would picking up tin cans in the parking lot. The casino executive responsible for this stupid policy is obviously not very bright. Because of all the time wasted shuffling, the casino is winning so much less from the hordes of ploppies playing this game than that would ever be won by players skilled at Superfun. The casino, instead of raking the money in from all the bad Superfun players, makes only a fraction of what it should due to all the down time.
Sunset Station and Fiesta Henderson have equally stupid policies, and make less profit because of it.
Some other stores, such as Jerry's Nugget, have a unethical policy of preferential shuffling whenever serious money hits the felt. At the Nugget, it doesn't take much to be considered "serious money." I have been shuffled up on there for bets of only $100.00. Apparently, the Nugget is presided over by another casino manager without much in the intelligence department. I have seen ploppies become enraged when they are shuffled up on during a "hot streak."
Sweet!
Posted by los on 25-Aug-2004 18:58:13 (#9857)
Looks like the Freemont is the place to go. I'll try that on my next trip out there.
Thanks again!
los
Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#9820)
I concur! *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Aug-2004 11:21:51 (#9848)
Why would you post this?
Posted by LVBear584 on 27-Aug-2004 11:40:51 (#9882)
Please consider deleting your post.
Thank you. *NM*
Posted by LVBear584 on 27-Aug-2004 13:39:52 (#9884)
very few play the game anyways. *NM*
Posted by eyesfor21 on 27-Aug-2004 14:30:36 (#9885)
one place even has s 17 .. *NM*
Posted by eyesfor21 on 29-Aug-2004 00:02:01 (#9895)
21+3
Posted by Scooter on 24-Aug-2004 21:13:43 (#9832)
New to counting. Have done lots of research, and looked to see what is out there on other games, Spanish 21, Baccarat, etc.
Has anybody done any work on 21+3? It seems ripe for counting. Especially with such a high payoff. A small change in the underlying probabilities should result in big player advantage. I think the count would have to be of suits though since flushes represent most of the payoff.
Anybody know of any work. I have some C++ skills, but would rather just review someone else's work than spend time reinventing the wheel.
No familiar with that game. What are the rules? *NM*
Posted by Sonny on 25-Aug-2004 17:32:25 (#9852)
21+3
Posted by Scooter on 25-Aug-2004 22:29:44 (#9860)
21+3 is a simple side bet. The player's first two cards and the dealer's up card form a three card poker hand. If this hand forms three of a kind, flush, or straight, the bet pays 9:1. All combinations of the three (straight flush, three of a kind flush) pay just 9:1.
The house edge on a fresh six deck game is 3.24%. I did a little work on this since posting. I ran analysis on a few thousand random decks from 52 to 311 cards. The player has a positive expected value about 5% of the time. Some of these are very substantial >10%. A very few were 50%+.
I still haven't identified a count that might work for finding these opportunites, but will keep working.
I would really rather hear from someone who has done the work already.
I Think this is BJ Conbined with 3 Card Poker *NM*
Posted by SammyBoy on 26-Aug-2004 13:44:14 (#9867)
blackjack sidebets
Posted by gross on 26-Aug-2004 11:16:33 (#9865)
Here is a link to a mathematically sound analysis of available blackjack side bets such as 21+3. Because of the house odds on this bet I almost never play it. However, I believe in very high counts this bet can be advantageous due to the likelihood of making high card straights or 3 of a kind with high cards. I don't see any way the likelihood of a flush could be tracked. Flush, straight or 3 of a kind all pay the same 9:1 which sounds nice but leaves the house with a big take. Remember that any time the house offers you an additional bet on a game they are finding a way to make more money! Good Luck.
http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/bjapx8.html
21+3 Can be Beat
Posted by Scooter on 26-Aug-2004 19:43:52 (#9871)
Though it will take team play.
Here is a condensed version. When the normalized difference between the most common suit and the least common suit is 6 or greater, the player has a positive edge. This is in the case when the penetration is to the 104th card. When penetration is to the 52nd card, the index is 7.
How to implement this? If you can keep four running counts great. Count each suit as it comes out. Take the difference between the largest running count and smallest running count and divide by the number of decks remaining. If it is 7 or greater, make the bet.
If you can't keep four running counts, pick any two suits, say Clubs and Diamonds. Count one suit +1 and the other suit -1. Get a true count by dividing your running count by the number of decks remaining to be dealt. If it is greater than 7 (or less than -7), take the bet. Since there are six combinations of the four suits, this will only alert you to 1/6th of the profitable opportunities.
This is where team play comes in. Six players each track a seperate combination of suits. If any true count exceeds 7, that player makes the bet. All the other players would thus be alerted to the profitability of the bet and make it as well. Ideally, there would be a seventh player keeping the count for blackjack purposes.
It is ugly, but this bet can be incredibly profitable. Here are the player's advantages and frequencies at various true counts (penetration to 52nd card):
Point Frequency Advantage
6 3.63% -1.4%
7 2.19% 0.2%
8 1.37% 2.4%
9 0.72% 4.6%
10 0.40% 7.6%
11 0.20% 10.1%
12 0.11% 13.3%
13 0.05% 17.2%
Being new to counting, I do not know any other counters, so I cannot implement this strategy myself. Keeping a single count and betting only 1/6th of the opportunities isn't as profitable as a simple Hi Lo, so I will stick with that.
I imagine no casino is aware that this side bet can be beat, so huge bets would not be questioned. Likely they would be welcomed as this game has an overall house edge of 3.24%.
If anyone would like the gorry details or if you actually implement this strategy, please let me know.
Better Count for 21+3
Posted by Scooter on 27-Aug-2004 18:31:07 (#9887)
I keep working this problem.
My first count for the 21+3 side count required 6 counts, or catching only 1/6th of the profitable opportunites. This count is better. It requires 4 counts, or catches 1/4th of the profit.
The 21+3 side bet is profitable when the suits in the deck are out of balance. It should be obvious that if the deck consisted entirely of a single suit, the player would win with 100% certainty as any three card combination is a guaranteed flush. Imagine, a 900% expected return. SWEET
Here are the mechanics. Pick a suit. I recommend watching the first round and picking the suit that has the fewest cards dealt. Count each card of that suit as a -1. And count every four cards dealt (regardless of suit) as a +1. The best opportunities occur when the deck is heavy in a suit, this is why I recommend picking the suit with the fewest cards dealt on the first round.
Divide your running count by the remaining decks to get your true count. If your true count is -5 or less, or +4 or greater, take the 21+3 side bet.
With a four counter team, each member could count an assigned suit. This would find every "findable" profitable opportunity. But even a lone counter can track a single suit as a side count. The opportunities this count finds are much more profitable than any additional information an ace side count provides. Also, this count is a great cover. Imagine dropping a purple chip on what the pit boss thinks of as a sucker's bet. You may have a 10%+ advantage, but he will never bother you again.
Here are the counts, frequencies, and player advantages assuming penetration to the 52nd card:
Count____________Freq_____________Advantage
+4_______________2.47%____________1.26%
+5_______________0.90%____________5.13%
+6_______________0.34%____________9.19%
+7_______________0.13%___________14.13%
-5_______________2.23%____________1.82%
-6_______________0.76%____________4.87%
-7_______________0.24%____________8.44%
All Profitable counts
_________________4.06%____________3.65%
Ace Sequencing Question
Posted by MJ on 24-Aug-2004 22:15:07 (#9836)
When using ace sequencing which cards should the player use as the key cards? For example, if there is a table filled with cards and a player has an 3H,5D,AD in his hand(dealt in that order) and he is sitting at centerfield, would the 3H and 5D be used as the keycards for the next shoe to help predict when the Ace of Diamonds is going to appear? Or would I want to use the cards in the hand immediately to the right of the Ace of Diamonds as keycards? If my thinking is correct I believe the key cards should be to the RIGHT of the Ace because this way they go into the discard rack before the Ace but I could be wrong.
My understanding is the cards that go into the discard rack just before the Ace which you are attempting to track become the keycards. In addition, all of this assumes the shuffle is NON-random in the first place.
Thanks to anybody who can help!
-MJ
cards are picked up in many different ways
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Aug-2004 09:13:15 (#9879)
You want the card (or two cards) on TOP of the ace in the discard tray, however that comes to pass.
One thing I have done is to look for blocks of aces in a shoe, and try and track their slug through the shuffle. If you are counting away, and then see a hand with 4 aces in it, stop your counting and watch carefully! The next shoe may be very fun!
--Mayor
Thanks *NM*
Posted by MJ on 27-Aug-2004 19:52:33 (#9888)
Good Feeling
Posted by SammyBoy on 26-Aug-2004 16:53:44 (#9869)
I went to 2 casinos over the weekend that beat me pretty good when I was a basic strategy ploppy a few years ago. I was able to withdraw some of my lost money from both places. It was a pretty rewarding experience. It seems all the hard work is beginning to payoff. Since switching to AOII I've played 150 hours and am up 185 units. Prior to this I was using Hi/Lo, -52 units 262.5 hours played. I play mostly double and single deck. I realize this is a very small sample size, but I believe I am on the right track.
Most of the difference between....
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Aug-2004 17:51:24 (#9870)
...the two results can be chalked off to random flux. zg
That's What I Thought Too! *NM*
Posted by SammyBoy on 27-Aug-2004 09:19:19 (#9880)
Keep up the good work.
Posted by Tom on 29-Aug-2004 16:16:11 (#9904)
You're playing some good blackjack...not many of us not out there,so we need to get what we can.
Thanks Tom *NM*
Posted by SammyBoy on 30-Aug-2004 17:00:19 (#9910)
Indian Casinos - enter at your own risk! *LINK*
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 26-Aug-2004 19:55:31 (#9872)
This article speaks of exactly what I've been preaching:
It's a problem
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 26-Aug-2004 22:19:43 (#9873)
And the worst part is that that most of the tribes that have casinos aren't even real Indian tribes; they're BS tribes fabricated for the purpose of building a casino. So they don't have any legitimate history of dealing with civil issues. State and federal criminal law however does apply on reservations when non-Indians are involved, so one way of dealing with it might be to hit them with criminal complaints- fraud, theft, etc.
Suppose you are at an Indian casino and you go to cash in at the cashier's cage. They take your cheques, put them in the drawer, and say "Thanks, paleface. Now get the hell out of here." Has this happened to anyone yet?
Interesting Experience
Posted by Radar on 26-Aug-2004 22:46:07 (#9875)
About 10 years ago in the Seminole Bingo Reservation in Tampa, FL a woman played bingo and thought she had won $92K. I reiterate...THOUGHT.
You see, the tribe determined that she didn't play by the rules and wouldn't pay.
It was in the local papers and they showed pictures of what she did.
It was a game where the player WRITES in 8 numbers and if those numbers come in before so many numbers called, you win. Well, the jackpot was $92K and she wrote her 8 numbers. The ticket that was shown in the paper clearly shows the numbers. But, since the number 1 was darker than the others, the indians claimed she 'traced' over the number. (like going UP and DOWN to make the number 1) The rules says that you cannot change or alter the numbers in any way once they are written. Because of this rule, they denied her the money. It was unbelievable. There was no way she made ANOTHER different number and you could hardly tell that she went up and down, verses down once.
She tried suing them for the money, but the courts denied the suit saying that the indians were "soverign".
The Canadian lady got lots of publicity (bad publicity for the casino) but still didn't get her money.
You think the Indians cared? Hell no, that casino is bigger doing more business today than they ever dreamed of back then!
Without some regulation, these places go hog wild and there isn't nothing you or I can do about it.
Again, BEWARE when entering these places!
Radar
I try....
Posted by suicyco maniac on 27-Aug-2004 01:26:38 (#9876)
...to only play in tribals where other counters I know have already been barred so I will know what I am up against...SM
4/4 vs 5 & 6 with DAS
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 27-Aug-2004 22:47:29 (#9889)
Isn't there a high index number that would warrant doubling this hand rather than splitting it?
4,4 vs 5 or 6
Posted by CanKen on 29-Aug-2004 10:06:30 (#9897)
I was waiting for someone more qualified to answer, but that hasn't happened yet.
My reading of Wong's PBJ indicates that in a multi-deck, DAS game you would split whenever TC=>-1 vs 5, and =>-2 vs 6; doubling <u>never</u> becomes a better option.
In general, the higher the count the more often you split pairs.
Numbers are a little different for single deck.
Still uncertain. Does anyone concur with CanKen?
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 29-Aug-2004 11:55:59 (#9900)
A while back I had a play with 4/4 vs. 6. Had a max bet out and the TC was like 16. I was puzzled by the situation and became too afraid to split. I doubled and received a 10, so I was happy that I made that decision. However, if it was the wrong decision, that's the last time I will do it.
I do
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 29-Aug-2004 12:42:33 (#9902)
Having a 4 against a 5 or 6 in a DAS game means that you will also get a DD opportunity should you draw a 5,6,7,or A on either hand, and resplit if you get another 4. So even at a high count it is better than 50% that you are going to get even more than double your initial bet out. A DD on 4,4 ensures both that you will only get 2 bets out and your final hand will be no better than 19. The only time I would DD would be if I didn't have enough money left in my pocket to play a whole bunch of splits and DD's that could be coming up.
Doubling minimizes variance
Posted by Anon on 30-Aug-2004 05:06:11 (#9906)
There are several plays where putting more money into action is postponed until well past the positive expectation threshold. Doing this enables a player to bet higher in relation to bankroll, resulting in greater absolute win overall. This was originally proposed two decades by Joel Freidman. Risk adverse indices are available.
Do a word search for "risk adversity" or "risk adverse".
Is this what you meant?
Risk averse
Posted by Sohrab on 30-Aug-2004 14:11:55 (#9908)
It is "risk averse" meaning afraid of risk, I think.
Risk
Posted by revereman on 30-Aug-2004 15:10:52 (#9909)
not quite afraid, but more like you'd like to lessen or avoid risk. The concept is the same--you don't like risk.
Index for double 4-4 vs 6 in s17 DAS game
Posted by bigplayer on 01-Sep-2004 04:49:51 (#9950)
There is a thread on BJ-Math that refers to risk averse work done by SBA creator Karel Janacek on this very question.
The HiLo Index where doubling 4-4 vs 6 in an S17 DAS game is +6.
Hooters buying a casino?
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 28-Aug-2004 22:52:45 (#9894)
I read a report that Hooters was buying the San Remo? That will be a hoot. Decent food, good service, and hopefully some good blackjack. The reason I'm optimistic is that Hooters markets its brand towards young middle class men, and these are exactly the last people who are going to play a slot machine, so there's no reason to make a Hooters casino a slot palace.
Please
Posted by revereman on 29-Aug-2004 11:23:27 (#9899)
do keep us abreast of the situation.
Remember the Rio
Posted by Victoria on 29-Aug-2004 12:16:00 (#9901)
First, I will plead ignorance, since I have never been in a Hooters but have to throw out here a not very positive thought. The Rio markets it's bikini pit (blackjack pays a whopping 1 to 1) to the same group of men. They may not be slot players but they will pay BJ and Craps with bad rules or odds. I hope I am wrong and if so then I will be appearing at Hooters in Vegas.
Victoria
Let me know what shift you work
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 29-Aug-2004 12:49:16 (#9903)
"I hope I am wrong and if so then I will be appearing at Hooters in Vegas."
And I'm sure you'll look great in the uniform! Absolut on the rocks, please. Being you can count too, I'll be happy to tip extra for information on sloppy dealers and good pen.
OK, I'll play the game
Posted by Victoria on 30-Aug-2004 11:12:33 (#9907)
Check the Marquee as you drive by
If it says appearing tonight, Victoria, then you know the game must be good. If not, just keep on driving.
Regarding David McDowell and "BJ Ace Prediction"
Posted by cyrano on 30-Aug-2004 20:16:07 (#9912)
I just wanted to plug for him and his book too because not only is he a knowledgeable fellow, he's also a very kind man who will go out of his way to help (much like many of my fellow posters here ;-) ). I posted a message on advantageplayer.com about a couple months ago asking about different forms of advantage plays involving blackjack and left my email. He responded in email and not only did he direct me to his book, he answered all the questions I had and then some I didn't even think about. Near the end of that dialogue, I asked him for a signed copy of "Ace Prediction" and without fail, he agreed. The man is in England and I'm sure it's a pretty penny to send the book from there. He could have just as easily said no. It's 6pm today and I just got my book--signed. I've made my coffee and I'm getting ready to lay in bed reading the book until I'm finished. To those who haven't received the book: I can say even without opening said book, the man knows what he's talking about! David, you're one class act and you have all my respect.
But sadly
Posted by Sohrab on 30-Aug-2004 23:58:26 (#9916)
after all the publicity of this book how long before the casinos change their shuffle to stop this from working?
I don't think it will be a huge threat
Posted by Sonny on 31-Aug-2004 10:38:34 (#9923)
> after all the publicity of this book how long before the casinos change
> their shuffle to stop this from working?
I think this book was incredibly well written. It has enough basic knowledge to get the average player interested in the concepts, but it balances that with a very mathematical approach to analyzing the effects of shuffles and tracking. Although everyone will be able to gain some evaluable insight from this book, only the math-oriented folks will truly "get" how the concepts work in actual casino practice.
In short, I think that many people, including casino executives, will simply read through the book and "gloss over" much of the math. This will not give them enough information to actually implement a truly "track-proof" shuffle procedure. It will probably make finding a trackable shuffle harder, but not impossible.
Everyone thought that Ed Thorp had killed the game of Blackjack when he showed how anyone can add +1 and -1 and beat the casinos, but nobody thought that Peter Griffin had killed the game when he exposed the mathematical rules that govern it. In reality, Griffin probably did more monetary damage to the game then Thorp ever did.
Besides, how much money do you think that the casinos will win from "wannabe" ace-trackers who are spreading to multiple big bets when they are at a disadvantage? This book could very well help the game to flourish!
It could even open up a whole new world of camo for us counters!
Pit Boss #1: "I think this guy is a counter. Should I bar him?"
Pit Boss #2: "No, he's just an ace-tracker. Let him spread as high as he wants."
(Okay, that last part was a bit too much) =)
-Sonny-
P.S.- Of course, I could be completely wrong. I have a feeling that many of us will be going to Vegas soon to find out!
I agree
Posted by Rob V. on 01-Sep-2004 13:00:20 (#9954)
I can't imagine it will hurt the game too much. Firstly, it's not like casinos are ignorant of the concept. Snyder already gave more than the ambitious counter would ever need to get started segment and sequence tracking way back when he published his shuffle tracking theory (mid 90s?). Yet in a recent trip to a small gambling town, I was blown away by the quantity of trackable shuffles.
What will hurt most is:
1. It will put the concepts back in the spotlight for the casinos. For a couple years, some casino managers will probably institute more extensive riffle/strippings.
2. I haven't read the book, but David suggested to me that he's recommending single keys. It sounds like, overall, he has fleshed out the approach and made it easier. So, there will likely be an upsurge in wannabes and talented newcomers.
But I agree with Sonny here - the wannabes will be very lucrative for the casinos. A subpar counter is still usually profitless to a casino, but a subpar sequencer is money in the bank. Moreover, David was very frank about the possibilities - the trackable shuffles using his techniques were very uncommon.
Frankly, it might even help things. More time riffling and stripping might mean less time marrying segments (but maybe not). And hopefully, the time-and-motion guys will win in the end.
- Rob Vega
regarding poker
Posted by cyrano on 30-Aug-2004 20:24:42 (#9913)
Apologies since this isn't bj...
A couple observations and questions...
First of all, I just wanted to say that I'm usually playing in low-limit hold'em--3/6 variety. Usually about 5-7 people see the flop then things begin to thin out, with about 3 people seeing the river.
That said, I was wondering (and I know this is HIGHLY subjective), but about how much is a good minimum bankroll for 1 month, playing daily, 2-3 hours a day? What kind of swings can I expect? Let's assume for simplicity's sake I'm playing a BREAK-EVEN game. No advantage, no disadvantage. In the long-run, my $1,000 bankroll will remain at $1,000. Let's also assume I'm tight, passive.
Second, how the heck do you guys wait hand after hand?!? Today, I played for 4 hours and in that time, I've only seen 2 flops excluding my blinds (8 flops total--dumped some blinds after being raised). What's the average I should be seeing and am I playing too tight? In the last 3 days, I've averaged about 3 hours a day: day 1=$250, day 2=$300, day 3=-$100. Is this normal?
Most humbly redirected...
Posted by The Mayor on 30-Aug-2004 22:12:57 (#9914)
Your post is perfect for the web site: www.twoplustwo.com
As for your results, they seem normal, but highly in the short-run. A reasonable bankroll for a 2/4 game if you are an excellent player is 2k. Yes, the swings are that big.
I have gone 4 hours without seeing a single flop. I have gone entire sessions when I have not even mucked a hand that "would have won".
--Mayor
thanks for the info mayor
Posted by cyrano on 30-Aug-2004 23:11:58 (#9915)
.. and I'll be sure to check out that site.
Juicy Game.
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 31-Aug-2004 20:42:09 (#9945)
" Usually about 5-7 people see the flop then things begin to thin out, with about 3 people seeing the river. "
You can clean up on a game like that with the proper starting hand selection, and not having major leaks in your game.
Go to the site the Mayor suggested, get some solid basic skills, and 300BB is considered good bankroll.
So for a $2/$4 game, $1200 should keep you playing.
In a loose game like you describe, you should be seeing about 20% of the flops.
And being able to fold hand after hand after hand when you are getting dealt trash is a poker skill, keep practicing it. If you right hand gets tired folding, throw your cards in with your left hand.
LOL~
Posted by cyrano on 31-Aug-2004 21:24:50 (#9947)
I'll keep that in mind. Thanks for the advice. I didn't even realize that's considered "juicy". Thought they were good players because most of them seem old, gruff, and tossed around poker jargon like it was their native language. BTW, any idea what my win rate SHOULD be with such a table?
win rates -- your mileage may vary.
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 01-Sep-2004 19:52:05 (#9964)
I could probably get 6 BB an hour from it, depends how long they will keep paying off my aggression when I raise.
If you aren't hitting 3 or 4 BB an hour, then you need to keep studying.
Don't worry about old guys playing and knowing poker, they probably learned playing 5 card draw and Stud and stuff like that.
Hold Em has it's own advantages, so you have to really know that game as opposed to just general poker knowledge.
Thx for the advice
Posted by cyrano on 01-Sep-2004 20:02:43 (#9965)
I -know- I'm not getting 3-4BB/hour so I think I'll just study up some more. Which book's starting hands would you recommend?
Starting Hands.
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 02-Sep-2004 18:17:53 (#9983)
the subject of starting hands is covered at this link:
http://www.posev.com/poker/holdem/strategy/preflop-abdul.html
Why does BJ seem so streaky?
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 31-Aug-2004 01:40:34 (#9917)
It's either up 10-20x EV... or you could make money on an even-money sidebet that the dealer is going to pull a 21 out of his ass. Is this just an illusion, or what?
I've got this theory, that when the session starts off with good variance I play well and this only makes things better, and when it's bad I subconsciously steam which of course makes matters worse. My basis for this is that even though I have 4-5 good sessions for every bad one, the bad ones are on the average 2-4 times worse than the good ones are good. Oddly, at the end of every few months I'm still above EV. I could be doing something to aggravate this, or it could be just normal variance aggravated by human perception. Not enough trials to know for sure yet, I guess.
Streaks
Posted by suicyco maniac on 31-Aug-2004 04:57:27 (#9918)
I just spent the last 3 months of full time play digging out of a 50K hole ending up a whopping +$51.50 from where I was back on May 11 only to lose 40 of it back in my last 3 days of play...F'n Streaks!!!! SM
Books
Posted by gunman on 31-Aug-2004 10:10:58 (#9920)
Hi, im new to the whole blackjack thing...i was wondering if u guys could tell me the books to buy? i want to learn high/low count and the omega II count...i would also like to check out the Hi-OPT 2...i wanna get a book on all 3 so i can make a decision on my own about which one is better suited to me...also i was watching the history channel special about the MIT team and was wondering what exact count were they using and the spread...thanks Ghost
First count
Posted by The Mayor on 31-Aug-2004 10:29:24 (#9921)
If this is your first time counting, please buy "Professional Blackjack" by Stanford Wong. We sell it on this site through our store.
That is the count you should use until you have some practical experience in a casino -- after that you will know what you want and what you need, but first things first. Get one count mastered (and it's a very good count), use it for a while, get some experience, then you can move on.
--Mayor
Pass on Wong's Pro BJ...
Posted by zengrifter on 31-Aug-2004 12:40:08 (#9926)
... Learn HiLo from Snyder's Blackbelt in BJ. Then, rather than learn Omega, you might adnace to Snyder's ZEN. zg
When did you get out ZG? *NM*
Posted by one who knows on 07-Sep-2004 17:38:24 (#10036)
I agree with the Mayor
Posted by Sonny on 31-Aug-2004 10:56:11 (#9924)
> i want to learn high/low count and the omega II count...i would also
> like to check out the Hi-OPT 2.
High/Low is in Wong's book and it is an excellent start. I believe several of the MIT team members used this system.
> i wanna get a book on all 3 so i can make a decision on my own about
> which one is better suited to me.
Start with the high/low. By the time you are knowledgeable enough to count cards in a casino you will have a much better idea of what kind of system is best for your abilities and playing sytle. The games that you play will also influence what system you use, so casino practice is very important when chosing a system.
-Sonny-
I agree too
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 31-Aug-2004 14:16:16 (#9929)
I started out with High-Low and moved on to HO2+Aces, which has similar parameters to Omega II. In my opinion there is no reason to learn both. Using whatever you use well will take you further than learning a more advanced count, and there is probably no reason to use anything more advanced than the two Level 2 counts you mentioned.
Agree With Mayor Also
Posted by SammyBoy on 31-Aug-2004 17:17:54 (#9933)
because it's what I did when I got started. ZG's route will work also.
Rome not built in a day
Posted by anon on 03-Sep-2004 10:42:10 (#9986)
If I recommend <u>one</u> book to learn the whys and where-fors of card counting, it is Card Counting for the Casino Executive by Bill Zender.
If I recommend one book as a didactic to memorize essential information and achieve proficiency, it is the very late Lawrence Revere's Playing Blackjack as a Business. Be aware that there is very much better guidance on bet sizing available.
Deciding upon a count system is a highly idiosyncratic set of compromises. Were it not, all system players would be using the same count. Ultimately, you will use the information in Griffin's Theory of Blackjack, but you won't be at that point for a while. Until you know more about the game, and have palpable playing experience, you cannot form an intelligent determination.
But the Arcturians had a field day ...
Posted by Syph on 04-Sep-2004 15:09:36 (#10002)
Or so I`m told.
Revere`s book is the shizzle.
Maybe it`s just me, but I tend to get all misty eyed flipping through those multi-colored basic strategy charts.
Sigh ... I`m far to sensitive for this life of crime.
Best,
Syph
Cover play
Posted by Jaxel on 31-Aug-2004 10:37:25 (#9922)
I'm a red shipper that gets out to Vegas twice a year, and I play at my local indian store once a month. There is little to no heat at the local store, but I use a players card, and I'm worried about them noticing that I only play blackjack.
My question is that what game would have the worse house edge? But I obviously don't want to give up my profits to an unbeatable game? I was thinking VP or video BJ?
Cheap cover
Posted by Sentry on 31-Aug-2004 12:32:26 (#9925)
To help balance things out, if you have a buddy that plays slots, ask them to put some activity on your card during their normal play. I don't know what the casino is likely to notice about your action, but I'd advise against giving away your earnings to buy some cover. Unless you are a big threat to them, I doubt they'll pay you much mind.
The cheapest cover is conversation. Talk to the dealers and PCs about the other games, big jackpots, hot Craps shooters and the like. VP is a beatable game, so that is a must, but if you want to play other games, try only the ones with low odds such as Craps, or Baccarat (if it is available). Also, it costs you nothing to stand at a Craps or Roulette table and not play, except for lost time. I doubt the BJ pit will be watching you closely, just come back with some chips in hand, grumbling or smiling.
Sentry
Cover?
Posted by Victoria on 31-Aug-2004 13:38:28 (#9927)
I have played several Indian Casinos in California and most playable places in Vegas and think as a red chipper you should not need much if any cover except perhaps looking like a friendly player, ( as said before, talking to the pit, grumbling a little when things go wrong, just looking like all the other red chippers in the place.)
There are places in Vegas that might give you a problem if your spread is big but if you only go twice a year, then why worry. If you spread say 12-1 or more and get a few of your big bets out, then you leave and go to the next place. Mainly it is downtown and some of the locals places that you would encounter heat at red chip level (a few small strip places also)
The Indian places here seem very tolerant at your level and the average player is so bad that the scene of removing a red chip player would just probably hurt the casinos image much more than any amount of money you could take from them.
Betting red you just can not make enough to give a bunch of it back by logging time on a bad machine or game. Getting a second card and giving it to a friend is a good idea but it could probably wait till you play green.
Not to worry
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 31-Aug-2004 14:12:52 (#9928)
As a green chipper at those stores, for almost a year now, I get no heat at all, and they know darned well I'm a counter. A PC at the 'woods walked up to a dealer once and told him not to let me play 4(!) hands, because I'm a counter. They simply do not care about anything less than black chip action or sophisticated team play. But I do throw them a little VP action, and once in a blue moon sit down at a Spanish 21 or Three Card poker table. I would not recommend giving your card to a slot player. First of all it's not fair to the slot player because he doesn't get his comps then, and secondly surveillance knows where you are at all times, and if they look down at the slot with your card in it and see you're not the one playing it might raise suspicions of team play and turn on the heat. Just do what you've been doing and you should be just fine.
AOII Indicies
Posted by Nina on 31-Aug-2004 15:11:43 (#9930)
I'm read Blackjack for Blood. I've already learned Basic Omega II but would like to move on to advanced. Looking at the indices I am confused. On some combinations I see a "S" for stand or an "H" for hit - okay I get this. But on others I see -21 or +5 what is mean by the negative or positive numbers indicated. Do I hit, stand, what??
numbers
Posted by cyrano on 31-Aug-2004 16:57:35 (#9931)
for the hit/stand tables, you hit if below the number, else you stand if at or above the number.
for the splits and doubles, just remember: DO NOT split/double if below (unless otherwise stated). so, if the number for a split table is 5, don't split if below 5. if it's for a double, then don't double if below the number. there's a caveat: usually for 8,8 you would NOT SPLIT IF AT OR ABOVE the number.
Please go back and review pgs 128-146 for clarification. Also note that there's a heiarchy: splits take precedence over doubles and doubles take precedence over hits.
Oh....
Posted by Nina on 31-Aug-2004 17:58:59 (#9934)
Ok, got it.
Are many of these variations applicable only to multiple decks? I usually play on single decks and have not yet come across a count + or - 20.
You will
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 31-Aug-2004 18:37:07 (#9938)
Single deck games can give you enormous index numbers which is one of the things that makes SD more challenging- more indexes worthwhile to learn.
There are different indexes for single deck and multiple deck! Also different Basic Strategy. So you will have to make sure you have your charts straight when learning these numbers.
Disagree......
Posted by phantom007 on 31-Aug-2004 18:47:00 (#9939)
Playing indicies in BJfB are TC's, i.e. do NOT need to memorize different #'s for SD, DD, etc......do have to convert RC's to TC's.
Many, including myself, get confused because Carlson lists Betting Indicies for MD games, or SD for that matter (by 1/4-Deck), in RC's.
Hope this helps.
phantom007.
Nina, your questions underscore...
Posted by zengrifter on 31-Aug-2004 19:17:04 (#9941)
... the obvious - you should NOT learn AO2. Learn KO. The indices are posted somewhere on this board. Cap'ece? zg
KO better than AOII?
Posted by Nina on 31-Aug-2004 20:48:26 (#9946)
Why do you recommend KO over AOII? I've been under then impression AOII is better.
You disagree? If so, why?
KO vs AOII
Posted by cyrano on 01-Sep-2004 00:58:19 (#9949)
AOII is better, but ZG is suggesting that you learn a simpler count. I disagree that KO is the way to go because it's based on the running count. That means you should learn different index numbers for different deck games, lest you want your performance to suffer a little more. ZG made an earlier suggestion that I agree with: use Hi-Lo Lite (Snyder's Blackbelt in Blackjack). This way, you only have to learn 1 set of index numbers. Usually the harder the system, 1) the slower you'll count 2) the harder it is to learn and 3) the more likely you'll make mistakes. Hi-Lo Lite is not without some benefits: 1) rounded matrix, 2) "upgradeable"--shuffle-tracking and such. All in all, it depends on you. If you want to play strictly SD and you have an aptitude for numbers, then maybe AOII is the one for you. If, however, you want something a little weaker (which you can make up for in more hours and less headaches), then maybe KO or Hi-Lo Lite is the way to go.
KO has one indexes
Posted by Sohrab on 01-Sep-2004 14:48:45 (#9955)
Yes it is running count but you change where you start for different games, so index is the same.
KO Indices
Posted by cyrano on 01-Sep-2004 19:21:34 (#9962)
That's strange.. I'm looking at the KO book right now and it looks like the indices are different (pgs 162-165). Some of those numbers look VASTLY different (10+ point differential--hard 16 vs 10). Looks like the majority of the numbers are different. Even the preferred index has adjustments based on deck (pg 86). Did I miss something?
You are looking at full system
Posted by Sohrab on 02-Sep-2004 01:05:07 (#9968)
which they do not even recommend. The reason to KO is it is easy so you can play longer with less mistakes. KO and Snyder and maybe others write that mistakes take away more profit than super strong system brings in. Look at preferred strategy chart with A, B, C in it. That is what I am talking about.
Please look again
Posted by cyrano on 02-Sep-2004 16:29:28 (#9981)
I mentioned the preferred strategy too. I've asked around and checked a couple other books too. All indications suggest that running counts are much more sensitive to # of decks.
This may be true
Posted by Sohrab on 03-Sep-2004 20:34:59 (#9995)
but differences in playing strategy is not important at multideck. Betting is almost all of profit, not playing strategy changes. This is why index can be rounded up, down, with no effect in real time.
Maybe this is heresy here but I think some worry too much about these tiny things. As Wong says, any count will get money. The hard part is bet size and getting away with playing nonploppy. With simple system there is extra time at table, extra noticing of pit behavior, less mistakes and more profit in the end I think.
GriftKO Composite 1-2D#s
Posted by zengrifter on 02-Sep-2004 12:03:33 (#9978)
found here -
http://www.cardcounter.com/main.pl?read=8038
1-2 Decks
Posted by cyrano on 02-Sep-2004 16:32:03 (#9982)
ZG, have you done sims with this 1-2 deck strategy on the 6-8 deck game? Is the performance still comparable or do you lose significantly compared to an 6 or 8 deck game?
No sims...
Posted by zengrifter on 03-Sep-2004 15:33:40 (#9990)
... I would like someone to do it. My visual/logic attempt to consolidate a composite set for 1-2Ds. zg
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