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Simple math question regarding RoyalMatch -
Posted by zengrifter on 28-Oct-2004 15:26:55 (#10636)
Simple math question regarding RoyalMatch -
Grojean demonstrates that a simple red/black +1/-1 RC will posiEV for 3-10 RM at +7/-7. He notes that this imprecise approach will only glean about 50% of the opportunity.
Given the above, how many non-x suit must I see to have an advantage?
For example, if the first cards out of the deck contain no hearts, how many must I see - 5? 6? 8? 10?
Thanks! zg
Proposition
Posted by The Mayor on 28-Oct-2004 15:39:12 (#10637)
Give me 10% of your first year earnings playing the RM and I'll write you a sim in C++ to answer this question, and other questions you have, about RM.
--Mayor
Ok, perhaps...
Posted by zengrifter on 28-Oct-2004 16:32:50 (#10639)
...but first answer my "simple math ques," ok? zg
The only way I know to answer it...
Posted by The Mayor on 28-Oct-2004 16:37:23 (#10641)
OK,
So you can see the delicacy of this, give specific parameters that you want an exact solution for. That means:
1) What are the exact payoffs for the RM game? (There are two flavors)
2) How many decks?
3) Exactly which cards are removed? (Not just "6 non-hearts" removed).
Then I will give you the exact answer for that situation.
--Mayor
**my responses-
Posted by zengrifter on 28-Oct-2004 17:05:22 (#10643)
1) What are the exact payoffs for the RM game? (There are two flavors)
**3/10 payoff
2) How many decks?
**1D
3) Exactly which cards are removed? (Not just "6 non-hearts" removed).
**5,6,7 etc. 'non-x' suit depletion off-the-top. How many depletion of non-x are required? zg
Not enough info
Posted by The Mayor on 28-Oct-2004 17:30:18 (#10644)
when you say non-x that is very complicated...
for example, if 5 non-hearts are gone, then those may be
KQ of S
KQ of D
K of C
for which there would be a considerably different closed result than if
2,3,4,5,6 of S were gone.
Do you see? You want a closed result, so you have to be exact! If you want a result that averages over all possible depleted cards, you need a simulation.
In the first case, the EV is even more negative. In the second case, it may be almost an even game (or better). So which do you want?
Sorry, even at this level, you are beyond the scope of a closed result. I could sim this easily, but I cannot and will not compute the separate result for each of the 576,000 (or so) cases that can occur by removing 5 random non-hearts and then average them.
Ok, I get your point...
Posted by zengrifter on 29-Oct-2004 12:28:04 (#10652)
"Do you see? You want a closed result, so you have to be exact! If you want a result that averages over all possible depleted cards, you need a simulation."
----------------
... but the "simple" question was to be a derivitive of Grossjean's sim:
+7/-7 RC red-black count = posiEV
Based on the above, letys go beyond red/black count - how many non-x suits must I see off the top? zg
Can't you just mentally extrapolate from...
Posted by zengrifter on 29-Oct-2004 14:29:02 (#10653)
...Grossjean's "+7/-7 red-black" parameter for a down and dirty estimate?
- zenignorance
No better than you
Posted by The Mayor on 29-Oct-2004 15:18:10 (#10655)
Again, the two ways I know how to do this are
1) An exact computation for an exact composition of the cards
2) A C++ program to simulate a specific situation in all the ways it arises.
You pick...
--Mayor
OK! - This one -
Posted by zengrifter on 29-Oct-2004 16:24:11 (#10657)
This one - "A C++ program to simulate a specific situation in all the ways it arises."
You get 10% of my lifetime RM earnings! Congradulations! zg
BTW, what are the odds of getting a suited K-Q on the first 2 cards? *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 29-Oct-2004 16:43:08 (#10658)
Suited KQ
Posted by The Mayor on 29-Oct-2004 18:04:32 (#10660)
There are (52 choose 2) = 52*51/2 = 1326 possible pairs of cards you can be dealt from a deck for your first 2 cards. Out of these, 8 of them are suited KQ.
So, for the initial pair you are dealt, there are 1318 non-suited KQ and 8 Suited KQ, so the odds are 1318-to-8, or about 165-to-1. And they pay 10-to-1 for it.
Also, I didn't ask for 10% lifetime, only 10% of your first-year earnings from anything I produce. I trust you with this one.
Write me private email with any questions you have, I certainly won't post any information on beating side bets here, though I may use it!
--Mayor
How about for FREE!!!!!
Posted by Sonny on 29-Oct-2004 20:00:19 (#10663)
Hey ZG, I've got just what you're looking for. It's an Excell spreadsheet that calculates the House/Player advantage for any given deck composition. You just type in how many of each card are in the deck(s) and it instantly shows you the % advantage/disadvantage - no sim required! You can input any number of decks and cards, and even remove one card at a time to see exactly how each card influences the bet.
I would be glad to email it to you if you want. Do you still use the Yahoo address that I used before?
-Sonny-
P.S. - The only stipulation would be that you have to share your results with me. =)
This is a question of suits, not card-tags...
Posted by zengrifter on 30-Oct-2004 17:31:25 (#10673)
... it would still work? If so just email me the answer! zg griftzen@yahoo.com
How about a BASIC program?
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 29-Oct-2004 17:18:07 (#10659)
Hey ZG, if you want to work on sidebets it's easy enough to write your own routines with a little practice.
http://www.libertybasic.com It's a free download and you can become an expert in 2 weeks. I used it to analyze the Match the Dealer sidebet, turned out to be not worth it.
The first thing you do is generate an array to represent a shoe full of cards, then you randomize it, then flipping through the cards one at a time represents the deal. That's the heart of the program. Then you can modify it to keep count using whatever count you want, and check for a win on any sidebet you want. I can rework my Match the Dealer program for any count and any sidebet in about an hour.
A little taste of research
Posted by The Mayor on 30-Oct-2004 12:22:11 (#10672)
ZG, I wrote a program, and essentially you can forget about the "non-x" idea. I haven't error checked my program, but it is in the range of seeing 18-20 non-x before you get an edge.
What is much more significant towards giving you an edge is "all-x". That is, if the first few cards are all the same suit (or nearly), your edge grows much more quickly.
Again, all of this needs to be simmed, along with many other ideas.
ahhh!
Posted by zengrifter on 30-Oct-2004 17:32:51 (#10674)
"What is much more significant towards giving you an edge is "all-x". That is, if the first few cards are all the same suit (or nearly), your edge grows much more quickly."
Chumash in the news again...
Posted by The Mayor on 28-Oct-2004 16:32:35 (#10638)
http://www.latimes.com/news/yahoo/la-me-chumash28oct28,1,6736485.story
Now is an ideal oppty...
Posted by zengrifter on 28-Oct-2004 16:35:20 (#10640)
... to tell investigators how/why the professor at a prestigious local colege is not allowed to play BJ there. zg
The importance and power of a free press is underscored again
Posted by LVBear584 on 28-Oct-2004 16:59:00 (#10642)
Philip Hogen, chairman of the National Indian Gaming Commission, said he was disappointed to learn <u>from a Times report last week</u> that tribal members responsible for regulating the Chumash Casino during the past decade had criminal histories and other problems. (Emphasis added)
Criminal Play?
Posted by Ohio Jones on 29-Oct-2004 03:11:38 (#10648)
robbery, theft, assault w/ a deadly weapon and wife beating by the same people that believe advantage play is criminal. i feel the native americans and the tribes deserve the benefits of running casinos and if they want to pay out to all the members that's their own perogative. but with that freedom to operate in the gaming industry they must be governed by a state controlled gaming agency.
The Chumash
Posted by Victoria on 29-Oct-2004 11:56:58 (#10650)
The Chumash is the only casino reasonably close to me, their game is poor but I do play there at times as does my uncle.
The place makes around 200 million a year, is busy and is located in one of the most affluent areas, near Santa Barbara.
In thinking about the barring of the Mayor and how I have played there, I guess that the mayor would not have been tossed (at least quickly) if he had not thought that these "nice guys" would like him for lending him some of his expertise. Casinos (not just the Chumash) do not want players who they know are smarter and know more about their business than they do. I think they took some of his advice and out of fear/paranoia, tossed him.
They are not a sweat shop and red and green chippers with some cover can have longevity, if you want it in a H-17 shoe game.
They may be also still learning on the job. Perhaps a year ago my uncle was at a table where an admitted dealer error was corrected by the pit totally in favor of the house. Nothing was at least pushed and no player was able to opt out of the hand as would be done in Vegas. He got upset, told the floorman it was not right and in a negative count left the table. The floorman then was seen having a long conversation with his supervisor. He wrote them a letter but never received the courtesy of a reply but since that time both of us have never seen a real dispute settled in favor of the house, always in a customer friendly way. So I think the folks actually working there may be alright.
The problem is the folks behind the scene and I know nothing except what I read in the paper about them.
If I were a tribal member, I would try to make sure that this publicity does not hurt the traffic in the casino and would want some housecleaning to take place. The place makes over 200 mil a year because rich folks from the Santa Barbara area think they are getting a decent game there.
I would start the cleaning immediately and welcome the input of the federal investigators. I would do just about anything they wanted to keep my door open and fix my reputation. We are talking about a casino where just about everyone stays on soft 17, stays on 14,15,or 16 vs 7, never hits or doubles soft 18, apparently has tight machines and rich players. A casino that can not help but make tons of money.
Victoria
Only game in town
Posted by Sput on 29-Oct-2004 15:57:17 (#10656)
The Chumash is always packed and will continue to be packed no matter how much bad press they recieve becuase they are the only game in town for 150 miles in any direction and the people around there have plenty of money. In my four months playing there I had nothing but good expirences.
Gambling attracts criminality
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 29-Oct-2004 12:01:21 (#10651)
Why do you think good and intelligent people have a low opinion of gambling, so low that an advantage player has a hard time explaining and getting through with why what he does is different? Low minded people are attracted to it, on both sides of the table. Being I'm almost always playing in an ersatz Indian's store I always remain aware of the potential for lawlessness around me, either in the form of cheating or theft, or a violent reaction to my advantage play. Articles like this make me even more aware.
THANKS,MAYOR!
Posted by RB on 28-Oct-2004 20:18:54 (#10645)
Hi, Eliot. I`m from Russia, and i`m going to be a card-counter. But now I am a student, law student. Sorry for my English.Tell me..that is true in real life be an a winner in JACK in long run? And what counting systems you advise to me..to the beginner...Thank you for your website...it`s great..
Greetings
Posted by The Mayor on 28-Oct-2004 20:41:04 (#10646)
>Tell me..that is true in real life be an a winner in JACK in long run?
Absolutely true!
>And what counting systems you advise to me..to the beginner...
Either KO or High-Low. If you are playing single deck or double deck, I suggest KO, if a shoe I suggest Hi-Low. For KO buy "Knockout Blackjack" by Vancurra and Fuchs. For High-Low buy "Professional Blackjack" by Stanford Wong (or else my book, The Blackjack Zone, coming in January, 05).
What are the games like in Russia?
--Mayor
No Hole Card
Posted by Imaya on 29-Oct-2004 18:55:31 (#10661)
Hi, just want your opinion on the "no hole card" rule. I am playing in a casino with this rule and also the dealer hit on soft 17. Thanks
Two types of NHC
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 30-Oct-2004 04:15:31 (#10667)
There's the European version where the dealer gets no hole card and you lose splits and doubles if he gets blackjack. This is a very disadvantageous rule for the player and you want to avoid splits and DD against an Ace or ten value card in most situations.
Then there's the Puerto Rican version where the dealer gets no hole card and you keep DD and split wagers if he has blackjack. In PR you also get early surrender against a 10 in several casinos, and this is an extremely advantageous rule for the player! In fact I'm going to be playing there in a few weeks and looking forward to emptying their chip trays.
Re: Indian Gaming in CA - Props 68 & 70
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 29-Oct-2004 19:16:31 (#10662)
CA AP's - what are your views and opinions on these two propositions? I'm leaning toward voting yes on both.
I'm against both
Posted by Sonny on 29-Oct-2004 20:27:20 (#10664)
Prop 68 would allow 16 local card rooms and racetracks to have up to 30,000 slot machines on their property. It would turn places like Santa Anita racetrack into huge Vegas-style casinos. Of course, this will only happen if the Indian casinos refuse to "pay their fair share" (as Arnold says). Do you think that this law will make them want to pay up out of the goodness of their hearts? It seems strange to me that a proposition would have a built-in "Plan B" for when it fails.
Prop 70 would basically give the Indian casinos the unlimited ability to expand their casinos. There would be no regulations regarding how many machines they are allowed to have or how much they must pay the state to operate them (currently they are charged a per-machine fee). They would have free reign over the extent of their land with no restrictions on the size of their casinos or the amount of machines they can have.
I personally feel that Arnold's compacts have done a very good job of putting reasonable restrictions on Indian gaming, and most casinos agree. I have faith in his plans for state reimbursement by Indian casinos. I don't want every card room in LA to open up huge slot rooms, and I don't want the Indian casinos to close down valuable community services (like post offices and office buildings that are on their land) in order to create bigger casinos and parking lots. I don't want a new Fremont Street Experience to open up in my backyard...unless they have good blackjack, which they don't =(
Parker went into much more detail about these policies on AdvantagePlayer.com in the "South & West" section. He seems to have the same opinion as me, but I would love to hear what other people think of these new propositions.
-Sonny-
TO GENIUS!
Posted by RB on 30-Oct-2004 06:40:49 (#10668)
Eliot, thanks for your answer!
In Russia (why for we so much years are at enmity?) BJ is 6D(ONLY), S17, DOA, nDAS,Spx etc..We also have BlackLists! I`m only 19 years old, but i hope that i can be a PROFESSIONAL BJ PLAYER. Russia is VERY VERY BIG country! And in every town we have some casinos! In my city (Khabarovsk) is GOOD BJ!
HOW MANY TIME WAS REQUIRED to you, TO BECOME PROFESSIONAL?
Thanks...and sorry for my ugly English! COME To us TO BEAT our casinos..
P.S. I thought, that only Russian dream to be rich not working...THOUGH IT TOO WORK...HARD WORK....
FREEDOM through WORK......
Posted by phantom007 on 31-Oct-2004 18:43:05 (#10715)
Was this Stalin? Lenin? Whoever, I believe that this "was" the Russian motto.
If you are only 19, then you will need to wait about 2 more years before you will be "legal" at most U.S. casinos. Once age 21, immigrate to the U.S.A. Legally or Illegally, it really does not matter....once here, we put you on Welfare...bring your family, we will put them on Welfare too!
Once you are here, have sex with a Fat & Ugly American Babe...you will be doing her a servie, as well as American males, who except for alcohol-induced blackouts, will NOT be having sex with same. Once she drops YOUR KID on American soil, YOU CANNOT BE DEPORTED!
Now, you get a Legal Green-card (actually blue), allowing you to work in the U.S.A.! Certainly, you could do this, raise YOUR kid, contribute to society, etc., but a 40 Hour/week job will greatly diminish your Casino time.
Therefore, once you have put-in (yes, Putin) the minimum time to join the Union (varies, but usually 6 weeks to 6 months), then while at work, lift something heavy and hurt your back...does NOT matter that your back does not really hurt, just say that it does. Expect to go through 6-12 months of testing, rehab., job re-training, etc......JUST REMEMBER, no matter what you do, YOUR BACK STILL HURTS!
You may have to get a Lawyer; even go to Court....but one thing is certain...YOU WILL GET DISABILITY! Don't worry about Lawyer and Court fees...these will ultimately be paid by your Employer! +EV!
So now, you get a Hefty monthly check for NOT working! 40 more hours/week to spend in Casino's! If you are smart, and I am sure you are, being only 19 and already thinking of CC'ing, them REMEMBER...Slots $1,199., Table $10,900., and Ashcroft $4,999.99...NEVER cash-in winnings at or above these #'s! Therefore, your winnings are TAX-FREE! ++EV!!
Yes, your financial life will be spent out of a Safety Deposit Box, costing you circa. $35-100. per year, AND you will have to pay most of your bills with Money Orders (cost ave. $1.00 each)....but compared to nearly 50% Fed. + State + Local tax, Combined, in most areas of the U.S....+++EV!!!
Certainly, the Fat&Ugly Girl + "the Kid" will need $$$, but since you are on Disability, guess what....they can't garnish....it is yours to keep! Presumes you are SMART enough to Divorce the Bitch by now!
Feeling Guilty about not supporting "YOUR" family? DON'T! The US and State government will provide for YOUR family nicely....free food, housing, transportation, medical care, education, etc.
So, by my calculation, Sir, by age 23, you could be making $40,000./year in the U.S.A. FOR NOT WORKING, plus another $150-200k./year from BJ, and have all other obligations of yours paid for by the "Government"!
FREEDOM FROM WORK!
phantom007.
"arbeit macht frei" could be your reference.
Posted by gehrig on 31-Oct-2004 19:06:25 (#10716)
money orders are best bought at walmart for 32 cents. the $150k+/year at 21 is optimistic on a $40k b.r., without a cheating move.
Maybe not
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 01-Nov-2004 18:36:41 (#10728)
$40K BR, that's about half-Kelly for a green chip player, not a bad place to be playing. If you can find fast games, get 3 BU per hour, that's $150K a year for a 40 hour week. And that's assuming you stay at green chip level. Still, you really need to know what your doing to play at that level, you'll need life experience as well as BJ skill.
Your input requested
Posted by The Mayor on 30-Oct-2004 11:58:15 (#10671)
Please take this month's raeder poll. We are coming in to the home stretch in the cover design for my book, and some sample covers are posted. There are a couple of basic ideas for the cover, and I'd very much appreciate your input by completing the poll.
Here is a summary of the book:
If you are a player who thinks blackjack is a team game, who believes
third base can steal the dealer's bust card, or who always takes even
money on blackjack, then the pages of this book were written for you.
This book is for the blackjack player who wants to know what works,
what doesn't and why.
In a casual, humorous, and easy-to-read manner, this book takes you
through basic strategy, the skills necessary to survive as a hobbyist,
and then on to card counting and advantage play. To the average player,
the information in this book may be worth $200,000 or more.
This book is also a guide to the mind of the winner. It explores the
life lessons that gambling provides to each of us, and gives us insights
into parts of ourselves that may need a little more basic strategy.
Team game? $200.000?
Posted by Sohrab on 30-Oct-2004 17:55:16 (#10675)
Summary. I think this first part is confusing, if you think blackjack is a team game. I know what you mean but maybe ploppies are confused after hearing about MIT team on TV, in bestselling book Bringing Down House.
Also $200,000 sounds like a lot. I think again I know what you mean, $200,000 not lost over lifetime of playing blackjack badly. Maybe if you say $200,000 over a lifetime of blackjack it is more credible.
1. Too much like roadtrip
2. More road trip, I think that pink thing is casino but not sure
3. You might get in trouble with Twilight zone people, also Twilight Zone is a bad place to be, not good place.
4. This I like - Vegas, casino, looks good.
5. I like 4 better but maybe 5 sells better - catches eye.
6. Too much road trip again.
7. Looks cheap somehow, not like book by standup professional guy like you.
Yep.
Posted by The Mayor on 30-Oct-2004 18:12:34 (#10676)
>Maybe if you say $200,000 over a lifetime of blackjack it is more credible.
That is exactly what the books says. Over a lifetime of play, the content is valued at about $200k. Of course, it is necessary to fix exactly what you mean by a lifetime of play to arrive at this number, and it is just an approximation (5000 lifetime hours of play for a hobbiest).
Concur - NONE OF THE ABOVE *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 30-Oct-2004 19:34:32 (#10677)
response
Posted by Ohio Jones on 31-Oct-2004 12:31:24 (#10705)
If I had to choose a cover this instant for print tomorrow I would choose number 4. I'm not sure what it is about the subtitle but it is not conveying the right message to me. Read other posts about subtitles and should have commented on this earlier. As I have read practically everything on this site that you have written, some twice or more, I understand exactly what you are conveying and what I believe the book might entail. Unfortunately I'm a practicing counter and to target a broader audience I feel that the subtitle is lacking the effective pull of someone undisciplined of correct play. Also blackjack being in the title and subtitle seems to lose some effictiveness. I see that you do have another subtitle so if it is not already a definite of the subtitle I'd like to suggest: TBJZ: Life Lessons, Learned, Earned, Lost and Loss; (more positive): TBJZ: Life Lessons, Earned and Learned; TBJZ: Fair Play For Life. If the subtitle is already decided kindly disregard the above. If it is still possible to change are there any ideas that the editor has mentioned? That is if the editor is not an AP. I think it would be more beneficial to have someone that just has a small interest in the game and who hasn't played it on an advanced level to say, "Wow, I have to read that!" Because there is no need to convince someone like me to read it. I want to read it no matter what the cover says or looks like just because I already know that I will appreciate reading the guts of it. I do believe cover 4 is convincing and flashy and that the subtitle is very direct. On the other hand I ask that you keep cover 7 with the A's and 7's and add it inside the jacket as a page. I know why you did this and I would like to add one suggestion to that cover (or page on the inside). A the bottome of the spiraling A's & 7's please add 3 cards in a row as | | |, A, 3, 7. First for the obvious great 21 that it is and secondly for the mysterious number of math, 137.
How about Team 'Effort' instead
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 30-Oct-2004 21:37:40 (#10681)
Other possible additions/changes:
...somebody who insures there hand of 20, bets and plays according to hunches.
...believes in "the flow of the cards".
$200,000 or more over time.
End with:
... may need a little tune up.
Many of the people who read the cover of your book won't even know yet what "Basic Strategy" means.
That's my 2 cents for what ever it's worth. Probably two cents. :-)
Cover 4
Posted by SammyBoy on 30-Oct-2004 23:58:48 (#10683)
Grabs your attention and gets the heart rate going. I'm ready to play some BJ after seeing that!
Can't find "Reader Poll" *NM*
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 31-Oct-2004 00:56:30 (#10685)
5 or 4
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 31-Oct-2004 01:00:53 (#10689)
I like the aesthetics of 5 better. On 4 you did a very good job of deidentifying the casino trademarks. But on 5 I believe the MGM sign is going to have to go, remember MGM considers you an enemy and they could sue you just to bust your balls.
Fair use
Posted by The Mayor on 31-Oct-2004 09:51:35 (#10692)
> From: "Bert P. Krages" <krages@onemain.com>
> Reply-To: STOCKPHOTO@yahoogroups.com
> Date: Mon, 29 Jul 2002 07:54:40 -0700
> To: STOCKPHOTO@yahoogroups.com
> Subject: Re: [STOCKPHOTO] Property release question
>
> In general, property releases are not required for buildings and most other
> property. This is because the "privacy law" that prohibits the
> unauthorized use of another's image for advertising and promotion does not
> apply to property. An exception is copyrighted material although the fair
> use doctrine reduces the potential problems to photographers. While
> buildings can be copyrighted, the copyright statute specifically states
> that photographing a building will not infringe the copyright. There have
> been a few cases brought by building owners against photographers claiming
> trademark infringement but these have not been successful.
>
>> If If I'm shooting near a public building (school; city, county, state
>> bldg, etc.) or an abandoned house where finding ownership is quite
>> difficult, is a property release needed in those instances?
>
>
> Bert P. Krages
> Attorney at Law
> 6665 S.W. Hampton Street, Suite 200
> Portland, Oregon 97223
> <http://www.krages.com/lvaserv.htm>
>
> Author of:
> Legal Handbook for Photographers: The Rights and Liabilities of Making Images
> <http://www.krages.com/lhp.htm>
This has the distinct advantage of
Thoughts
Posted by ZOD on 31-Oct-2004 09:09:00 (#10691)
My vote is for #4 or #5. It's Vegas, baby! #5 is more pleasing to the eye, though. The letter coloring is better and I like the typeface choice. Picture wise, I think the enhanced spotlight effect draws attention and I like "MGM" being prominently displayed. (And why wouldn't MGM want their name on the cover?)
As to the summary, I like it a lot. The last paragraph practically speaks to me. The only thing qualm I have is the "$200k" sentence. Seems like too much hyperbole to me. I understand where the number comes from, but I beginner might just skim the back, see the dollar figure, think "yeah right, $200 grand..."
Either way, I hope the book is a resounding success. I currently have nine blackjack books. Here comes #10.
Best,
ZOD
About the photos
Posted by The Mayor on 31-Oct-2004 09:54:22 (#10693)
The man who took these photos took many more. He is a very talented young man. Here is his work...
http://www.wherry.com/photos/index.html
#5 is the hot set-up
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 31-Oct-2004 10:25:56 (#10697)
Not so convinced though on the book title font. All else is perfecto.
Need basic strategy differences for...
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 30-Oct-2004 21:19:58 (#10678)
6D, H17, RSA, No SR, DAS, DOA2 or more.
My concern on this would be the following hand situations:
9 v 3
A2 & A3 v 5 & 6
A4 v 4
It may be wrong to double in the above situations given there is the option to double even after receiving three or more cards.
No answer
Posted by Ohio Jones on 30-Oct-2004 21:33:40 (#10680)
Sounds like a Spanish 21 game except for the No SR and the 24 10's removed, which is obviously different BS. Just wondering if this is an actual game to be found or if you're just working on something?
It's a real game
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 31-Oct-2004 00:43:50 (#10684)
At least I think it's still available. Gonna try and play it soon if it's still going. Must travel a ways to get there.
Ah yes I know this game
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 31-Oct-2004 01:23:06 (#10686)
It's still available, and also available in the store next door. Played it a couple of times. If you're an experienced shoe player and hesitant to try pitch it sounds really appealing but there are quite a few other games in neighboring towns that are much, much better. It's the only H17 shoe game I would play. By the way, make sure you have tire chains if you are driving to this game.
CVIndex doesn't allow for multiple card DD index generation so the only way I can think of to estimate them is to move the index numbers around manually, run sims and compare the win rates. The 9 DD's I wouldn't worry about because of the low probability of drawing a deuce, just make sure you are playing the 9 vs. 3 index for whatever you are using, that's a nice uncommon play to know. The soft DD's are a different story because if you catch a nice card you will probably still have a DD hand. And if you catch a stiff you'll probably wish you hadn't DD. I think playing it normal would be a good compromise. Or just do the win rate thing, see what happens.
Didn't know it was available next door
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 31-Oct-2004 09:59:29 (#10694)
I'll look for it in the neighboring stores. Will be there next week sometime. AM, do you live close?
There is plenty of good 1D and some decent 2D in the area. I'll be giving it a go too.
If I play the 6D double on any anything, I'll just make my decisions on the soft double options as if the count was -3TC lower than it really is. Still, that can't be exactly correct though. I have an idea the pen is too exciting.
Live 2500 miles away from it
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 31-Oct-2004 12:21:55 (#10704)
But still, I make a couple of business trips to a large city a few hours away each year, and I've been getting out there a couple of days early to play. I'll be out there in January and again in February, and this year I'm going to be playing exclusively SD.
Yeah the same people own both stores that offer it. Problem is they don't have too many tables with it, pen is nothing to write home about but there's no heat.
Misplaced my CV Data
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 31-Oct-2004 10:08:59 (#10695)
Can't run any sims 'till I find where I put it when I recently moved. Or must buy new.
Still think it may be stupid to double soft 12, 13 & maybe even 14 regardless of the count. Maybe I should give those hands a chance first to build up to soft 18, then double it.
Any opinions?
Tire chains?
Posted by Sonny on 03-Nov-2004 12:13:47 (#10749)
> By the way, make sure you have tire chains if you are driving to this game.
I've seen this game offered at two casinos in the NV desert too. Now that I know the strategy adjustments I may have to check them out again!
Thanks Dog Hand.
-Sonny-
Answer, from Farmer's Program *LINK*
Posted by Dog Hand on 31-Oct-2004 13:38:20 (#10711)
Stealth Bomber,
I used Farmer's basic strategy engine (available at the link below) to consider your question. I ran two cases: one with DA2, the other with D3+. Below are the strategy changes as well as the overall EV.
Hand DA2 D3+
A-4 vs. 4 D H
A-2 vs. 5 D H
A-2 vs. 6 D H
3-3 vs. 2 P H
Edge -0.548 -0.320
Your intuition was extremely accurate! The only play you missed was not splitting the 3's vs. a 2.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Thanks for the help *NM*
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 31-Oct-2004 23:27:33 (#10720)
Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#10679)
Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#10696)
lucky you
Posted by Illusion on 31-Oct-2004 11:52:38 (#10702)
People make mistakes, that was an expensive one. I wouldn't show my face in that store for at lest 12 months.
careful...
Posted by gehrig on 31-Oct-2004 12:20:15 (#10703)
unless this was a tribal joint out in the boonies, likely that overpay was discovered. the discovery should have been no later than the next (checque rack) count, usually before the shift change...= "close". it would be surveillance's responsibility to rerun all tapes until the shortage was spotted. first suspect would be the dealer. then the table fills and markers (if any), would be checked. any surveillance agent worth a sh*t would notice the overpay. if the amount were significant, depending on the sweat factor of the joint, likely the dealer would be fired. and, depending on how much juice the pitstiff has, he/she as well. pitstiffs are required to "approve" all color-ups, checque changes, and buy-ins.
a similar situation has become public, in a slot department. a fellow was playing a newly opened, "locals", west side joint when he noticed that a slot was overpaying all wins. apparently there had been some switch of circuit boards, between adjacent machines when they were being installed. the fellow "won" well over $10k. the error was discovered. the fellow returned a day or so for another shot at the same machine. he was recognized from surveillance tapes and detained for gaming investigators to arrive. i don't know what finally happened as to criminal charges. bottom line, if you were to keep the overpay, for sure i wouldn't revisit that joint, any joint owned by the same corporate group, and any joint which because of geographic vicinity, might share information between surveillance departments.
Good advice from gehrig
Posted by LVBear584 on 31-Oct-2004 13:23:00 (#10710)
... the fellow returned a day or so for another shot at the same machine. he was recognized from surveillance tapes and detained for gaming investigators to arrive. i don't know what finally happened as to criminal charges. ...
I believe gehrig is referring to the case at the Rampart, then known as The Resort at Summerlin. If that's the one, the player was never charged with anything, nor should he have been. He did nothing wrong, other than take perfectly legal advantage of casino employee negligence and stupidity. The casino settled their portion of his lawsuit against it for the illegal "detention" by security guards. His lawsuit against the Gaming Control Board and the corrupt agents is still pending.
Nevertheless, gehrig's advice is right on the money, as usual. Casinos do not play fair or within the law. Though no crime was committed by the player in accepting the overpayment, do not trust a casino to behave lawfully. It may well try to kidnap ("backroom") you, or try to use threats of violence or threats of fabricated criminal charges to extort the money out of you if you return. In Nevada, many corrupt Gaming agents would be happy to assist with the attempted extortion.
Perhaps you should
Posted by blueeyedsamurai on 31-Oct-2004 17:20:59 (#10714)
never have come on a public message board shouting about your good fortune. Your ability to play dumb has been somewhat diminished and if the error had not been discovered I would imagine every casino troll who works in a jojntnwhere the chips have recently been changed is in the break room telling all his buddies about you.
Quickest way to make an enemy is to make a fool of a friend.
the rampart casino...
Posted by gehrig on 01-Nov-2004 11:21:19 (#10726)
when they first opened, a couple of resurrections ago, had a cool barfet. the "marketplace" upstairs had an $18.95 evening spread which included lobsters, sawn in half lengthwise. i recall a fellow who had at least a half dozen of those halves stacked on his plate, lincoln log style. my fellow diner buddy who has been in high end food managemnet since the 60's, said : "they didn't make any money of that guy. those lobsters are over $8 each wholesale".
on opening night, i reported on the 21 games. most noticeable was the presence of andy anderson. he was walking the floor with apparently a casino suit.
buffet
Posted by Gorilla Player on 03-Nov-2004 14:20:57 (#10752)
Ever think they might want you stuffed at the buffet, then plastered with free drinks at the tables, so that you might not play at your best? :)
no.
Posted by gehrig on 04-Nov-2004 11:15:01 (#10764)
since beverages are rarely offered freely at barfets, getting a puss full would be a financially disadvantageous play for the card counter. a few exceptions exist, such as a free beer or glass of wine, at a couple of barfets. weekend brunches *do* often have some level of champagne.
were one to overeat, could be that one might become lathargic. it all depends on why you visit each joint. as to barfets, i rarely play in those joints which have quality/edible barfets. this and last week (lots of visitors), bellagio, aladdin, and paris. i do not play these games for a couple of reasons, hence there is no conflict. in the joints which have the best games, there are no barfets at all or if offered, the barfets are mediocre in my estimation.
conclusion is that if one were to be made comatose from alcohol abuse or overeating, one is not an "advantage" player.
Titles
Posted by Big Bill on 31-Oct-2004 10:49:12 (#10698)
Eliot,
Are you locked in to the title and tag line already. Covers are one thing, but I think the words matter most (more?).
Never Split Tens - Lessons Learned at the Blackjack Table and at Life
Banned! - The Life and Times of a Professional Blackjack Player
Step Away From the Blackjack Table, Please - Too Good to Play
Splitting Tens and Other Dumb Things I've Done - My life as a Blackjack Pro, in and out of the Casino
Streetsmart Blackjack - Playing to win at 21 and at Life
Color Me Up! - a Winner's Guide to Blackjack, and beyond.
Or maybe I should sleep on it a bit first ;-). Anyway, reality is the cover will be way down on the list. True, I suppose, when books were sold at bookstores only, but in this day and age the title matters most and a well chosen title can double or triple your success.
BB
Great suggestions
Posted by The Mayor on 31-Oct-2004 11:46:06 (#10700)
I do like the title "The Blackjack Zone" because it is the central theme of the book. I introduce this zone early on, and refer to it consistently throughout the text. Any other title would not fit the content of the text nearly as well.
The sub-title, however, is another matter. I am completely dissatisfied with the current subtitle, and in looking at the ones you suggested, I can see many new ideas with great potential.
Thanks. If you have any more ideas, PLEASE post them. You obviously have some talent for this sort of thing.
--Mayor
cover art
Posted by Illusion on 31-Oct-2004 11:50:43 (#10701)
Books with cards on them seem to catch the eye and do well, people do judge a book by its cover.
Eliot, I've just sent you some cover art.
Posted by Titaniumman on 01-Nov-2004 07:23:18 (#10723)
It's an exceptional piece for a blackjack book cover.
It can be sized to the upper left corner to allow as much book cover text as desired.
It was done for me for a project that never got off the ground.
I own it, but if you want to use it for your book, you may have it. If you don't want to use it, please do not allow anyone else to have it as I may then find another use for it.
Please resend it
Posted by The Mayor on 01-Nov-2004 09:13:59 (#10724)
Send it to eliot@integrity-intl.com
Thanks T!
Hmmmm.
Posted by Titaniumman on 01-Nov-2004 11:13:02 (#10725)
That's the address to which I sent it.
I just re-sent it. Let me know if you get it.
I had not noticed the other art you have displayed. You may or may not like this better. Feel free to accept it or turn it down.
And another thing . . .
Posted by Big Bill on 31-Oct-2004 12:49:09 (#10706)
Will do some thinking since you ask. Can I mention one more thing I think important? Don't take this the wrong way, but that "Ph.D" thing?
Kiss of death.
The entertainment value here is way up on the list of what you bring to the table, having read your posts and articles and the blurb. Yes, I know there's a time and place for the math guys and their stuff, but I doubt your market is looking for that from you. I want to be entertained and learn a little something something in the process.
Can you do that with the Ph.D on the cover?
Well, you can but let me tell you, I see "Ph.D" on the cover and I think "not fun" and "lots of charts and graphs" and "I'll just have to pay my dues and slog through it." Sure, I've bought them and I've studied them but I don't particularly enjoy them.
Enjoyment sells.
How do you want to be perceived, or preperceived to the guy with the Visa card in hand looking to have fun and learn some friendly blackjack skills? Do you really want to position yourself as an egghead? You do and I'm betting he ain't buying.
I see "Phd," I'm thinking twice before clicking that "one click ordering" button on Amazon. I want to be entertained, entertain is what you do so it's a perfect fit. Don't muck it up now by throwing me that Ph.D thingie and make me have to wonder about what I'm getting into.
I'm not here to be educated - I'm here to have fun, be entertained, and learn a little somthing about the game of 21.
"About the author," that's where that Ph.D thing matters and tells me you know what you're talking about in terms of your ability to get the numbers right. I think that's probably good enough.
Question:
The purpose of this effort is what - to show everyone how smart you are or to put dough in your pocket? If it's the latter, lose the Ph.D and for god's sake, no more masterbation stories, puleeeeez! ;-).
BB
I completely disagree
Posted by The Mayor on 31-Oct-2004 12:59:36 (#10708)
>Can I mention one more thing I think important? Don't take this the wrong way, but that "Ph.D" thing? Kiss of death.
It is not a "Ph.D. thing." It is a Ph.D. in mathematics at age 25, 15 years as a professor of mathematics, over 20 professional publications in peer reviewed journals, and a current position at one of the top schools in the country. These kind of academic credentials are very rare among those who write books on blackjack (or most anything else), and are one of its strongest selling points. I am proud of my academic credentials.
There is one other book I can think of in blackjack that has Ph.D. on the cover, and that is KO blackjack (Olaf Vancurra, Ph.D.). It's one of the best selling BJ books of all time.
--Mayor
Forest for the trees
Posted by Big Bill on 31-Oct-2004 14:13:31 (#10712)
Eliot,
You can't see it. You won't ever see it. You're too close to the subject to be able to separate yourself from it and as a result, it's impossible for you or anyone in your position to step back and see it for what it is.
You're talking to an avid consumer of blackjack books, software and related products. And while I'm certain your academia accomplishments are noteworthy and something you have every right to be proud of, I can promise you the fact that you are a credentialled math professor is not something that impresses me . . . and I'm your absolute best possible potential customer.
I have the same problem in my line of work and trust me, the last opinion that matters when it comes to taking a step backward and seeing things for what they are, is me. I can't possibly see what others see because my judgment is clouded with things I consider important and those thing, while important to me, may not be important in terms of making sales happen.
I once wrote a 60k word course that do date has sold 19 copies. I still believe it's the best thing I've ever written. See what I mean?
I sold $22k in courses this month. That's net. All good stuff, to be sure, but in order to pull that off meant incorporating things into my approach I would not believe mattered or would be important. Now, I know better.
In blackjack I've learned to be dispassionate about outcomes. I'm more concerned about my ability to play error free at the highest possible skill level I've achieved to day, and accept that in even my very best playing outings, the chips will fall where they may. I suggest the same dispassionate approach here to the marketing of your book.
I thought this was to be a book for the mass market. I'm willing to bet your target audience has few 25 year old Ph.d'ers. More likely, they're 25 year old Mac.D'ers who want to learn how an average guy like themselves can beat the casinos to a pulp. Know why I bought KO? Because, like the cover says, it's "the easiest card counting system ever devised." I bought it IN SPITE OF the Ph.d credential.
"Oh, I didn't realize you have to have a Ph.D to be able to pull that off. Never mind."
Are you selling to AP's or Ploppies? Imagine which market is bigger and you have your answer. Agreed, AP's appreciate and respect and seek out authors such as yourself who come bringing the numbers that matter. But a ploppy? No way.
Likewise, for what it's worth, (and you're certainly able to completely disagree), I can tell you from a consumer of blackjack products that the Ph.D tag tells me boredom is just around the corner and at this point, I'll likely still buy the book but do so only because I already know you're a good read.
But the guy off the street?
Not gonna happen.
I loved KO because it completely suprised me that it was presented in such a friendly manner. It was one of the last counting books I bought because I'd already discovered that digesting blackjack books by Ph.D'ers was way beyond my commitment level back then.
You responded to my earlier post with the math wiz kid creditials. Damn, that IS good stuff! Just like the MIT thingie romanced me into buying anything Team MIT related, that math wiz bit has the same feel and my credit card is jumping out of my wallet as we speak. Were it me - that's where I'd be taking aim.
The last thing I want to read is something with charts and graphs and math formuli from some math professor who thinks bouncing numbers around in his head is fun. Numbers aren't fun. You tell me my choice is between that and Jerry P's killer card clumping tactics that'll teach me in a weekend which tables are hot (hey, look at that empty check tray!) and which aren't (gee, they're all frowning) and guess where my dollars are headed, unfortunately.
I appreciate your insights, your opinions and your entertaining style. This, in spite of the Ph.d. Imagine!
BB
B B may have a valid point
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 31-Oct-2004 23:46:31 (#10721)
Mayor, maybe you should show them your credentials after the hook is set. Then reel them in with your knowledge and teaching abilities.
Mr. Mayor, See what happens...
Posted by oldnewbie on 01-Nov-2004 07:19:34 (#10722)
When you ask for advice?
I've done a little programming for the company I work for, and have learned to never ask for advice for a "beta version". I just give it to them finished. If they come and ask for refinements, fine. I might do it, I might not, depending on the time I have. If I asked for advice up front, I would be tangled in the same web you are now.
As for me, ploppy that I am, I'm more interested in the content of the book, rather than its cover. I found the titles for the BJ books that I've bought on this and some other boards. The one title I didn't see on any of the boards was "Cutting Edge Blackjack" by Richard Harvey. As it happens, I started reading and smelled a con. I checked on one of these boards, and found out about him. Ah, well, live and learn.
Anyway, I digress. Just give us the book, already! If you have to, put a scantily-clad babe on the cover. That's sure to sell a lot of copies!
oldnewbie
ps. Just kidding about that babe thing.
PhD yes, MB no
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 31-Oct-2004 19:27:54 (#10717)
PhD is a winner to me. I don't have one but it doesn't put me off, doesn't make me think someone is trying to be pretentious. Now what's pretentious is a guy just out of college with his PhD and insists on being called "Doctor" by everyone in the lab. People who have had their doctorate for 40 years, have international acclaim and who were even Nobel candidates are called by their first names by the people they work with, even low level technicians.
What's important to add though is the nature of the degree, where conferred and in what area, because anyone can get a PhD and all the frauds do. I get offered them all the time in spam. And another thing I would consider to lend credence to your book are your bridge and chess accomplishments, because I know what it takes to master these games and how many of the skills can be transferred to the casino games.
On the other hand, the personal and sexual references, they embarrass me a little bit. But only because they involve intimacy and your wife, if they were stripper and whorehouse stories they would be more readable, descriptive of the Las Vegas environment and the kinds of things that are part of the thrill, for some, of the life of a gamer.
I'd lose the PhD on the cover
Posted by BJ_Player2004 on 07-Nov-2004 14:12:57 (#10782)
Eliot,
I love this site, and I wish you the best with your book. I'm sure it will be a best-seller!
As for the jacket, perhaps you should save your credentials for the inside jacket. Your target audience is the ploppies -- lazy by definition. They want a nice, light read on how to get rich quick in the casinos without work or risk. That's why they buy John Patrick books. The "PhD" after your name hints at something different than the nice, light read they want. For better or worse, that is your target market, and I'm sure you'll want to maximize the EV of this venture.
Here's your typical potential customer. This is a review of BJA2 from Amazon:
Vastly Overrated, November 28, 2002
Reviewer: Ian Duncan Smith (Oregon)
Serious problems with this book:
a)The book is about card counting, yet the author does not provide any details as to a card counting system.
b) It is academically self-indulgent to the point of unreadability. Chapters are glued together from the author's old articles with no cohesion.
c) As the book says, you can spend 500 hours counting cards at blackjack and lose. Kind of pointless don't you think? The fine details of card counting in this book will not help much. You also need a minimum $50,000 dollars to start with.
d) This page and the book itself is liberally sprinkled with comments from blackjack authors, software providers and webmasters all of whom are stablemates or have some financial interest in this book selling & succeeding. Are they all impartial? I very much doubt it.
e) The author calls the book "playing the pros way", yet apparently has some flashy wall st. job. Its easy to make a small fortune at gambling if you start with a large fortune.
I'm sure your publisher will run some marketing numbers to optimize the appeal of the book to the masses. Remember, people do judge books by covers.
what "masturbation stories?" *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 31-Oct-2004 15:17:04 (#10713)
Central Theme . . .
Posted by Big Bill on 31-Oct-2004 12:56:59 (#10707)
Please describe what you mean about the Blackjack Zone being the central theme.
BB
The central theme
Posted by The Mayor on 31-Oct-2004 13:08:45 (#10709)
In order to get people to understand the cost of misplaying a hand, I create this weird place where for 10,000 hands in a row you are dealt the exact same hand against the same dealer up card. This weird place where the same thing happens over and over is NOT an impossible scenario, just a highly improbable one. I call it "The Blackjack Zone" because it does have a feeling like "The Twighlight Zone" in its weirdness.
It is in this place that I evaluate the true cost of various ways the player might choose to play this hand.
Uses in context might be...
"If the player chose to always hit A-7 vs. T then in the blackjack zone this would cost the player..."
Hence the title.
Hope this helps,
--Mayor
my 2 cents on the covers, title and Ph.D
Posted by Wildcard on 02-Nov-2004 17:22:35 (#10735)
Eliot,
A rare post by me here, but since you solicited a response, I'm tossing my opinion into the mix.
You definitely need to work on the cover, I found it unappealing and not quite what I'd expect from a blackjack book. Perhaps a bit more work with the Vegas theme would find a stronger audience of purchasing activity.
What's with the "life" thing? Are you now going to share your life experiences and proceed to tell everyone you've discovered the successful way to live one's life? How does that relate to blackjack? I read blackjack books for knowledge about the game, not an informational guide on life. Perhaps I missed something in the inclusion of "life", but it comes over to me as a bit on the aloof side. Seems to me you're mixing apples and oranges, if the book is about blackjack, then stick to your topic, I don't need to read about how you've lived your life.
Dump the Ph.D thing on the cover. Don't for a nano second think that Vancura's book became a best seller because he has a Doctorate, it was the content of the book that made his sales soar, NOT his title. Besides, compared to your artwork, Vancura's "Ph.D was rather innocuous, as the red boxing gloves and rather impressive "Knock Out" and "Blackjack" print clearly overshadows who has what degree.
Accomplishments are for inside the cover, to allow the reader to quickly see the expertise of the author. This is often reserved in a "forward", or area entitled "about the author". If this is an ego thing, then do what you gotta do, it's your book, but for me, it just comes over a bit on the pretentious side. I certainly appreciate and respect your accomplishments, but toot your horn inside the book, not on the cover.
Well, you asked!
Wildcard
Thanks and some responses
Posted by The Mayor on 02-Nov-2004 18:42:48 (#10736)
>A rare post by me here, but since you solicited a response, I'm tossing my opinion into the mix.
Much appreciated
>You definitely need to work on the cover, I found it unappealing and not quite what I'd expect from a blackjack book. Perhaps a bit more work with the Vegas theme would find a stronger audience of purchasing activity.
I completely agrtee
>What's with the "life" thing? Are you now going to share your life experiences and proceed to tell everyone you've discovered the successful way to live one's life? How does that relate to blackjack?
I haven't yet figured out how to play blackjack while dead, so I assume everyone who reads my book is alive. Given that, they are facing many of the life challenges that are common to humanity. I believe Blackjack offers a lot of lessons that can help guide people to a more successful life.
>I read blackjack books for knowledge about the game, not an informational guide on life.
I guess this book isn't for you then. This is not a book for experts, it is an introduction to the game for the average casino player.
>Seems to me you're mixing apples and oranges, if the book is about blackjack, then stick to your topic, I don't need to read about how you've lived your life.
I never claimed this book was about blackjack. It is about blackjack AND life, and how gaining mastery of the one can help with the other.
>Dump the Ph.D thing on the cover.
More and more, I am starting to agree with this point. The Ph.D. will probabaly go.
>I certainly appreciate and respect your accomplishments, but toot your horn inside the book, not on the cover.
Good idea, probabaly will do exactly this.
>Well, you asked!
And I deeply appreciate your taking the time to answer!
--Mayor
cover
Posted by eyesfor21 on 02-Nov-2004 23:58:06 (#10737)
looks quite interesting..
I personally like the phd,just make it in smaller font though.
A great enjoyable book I just read is -the zen of gambling..
which does relate to life and gambling..
check it out mayor..you are correct why be like everyone..
for the cover I was thinking a light blue backgound with some
lightning bolts across the middle..and eye opener..shocker cover..
Fringe benefits from what we do
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 03-Nov-2004 23:45:53 (#10758)
I believe Blackjack offers a lot of lessons that can help guide people to a more successful life.
BJ and other forms of gambling will destroy some people. However, those of us who gain the proper knowledge, will find that it does just the opposite. Some lessons and subjects I have learned or gained ground in are:
1) Respect for money and how to make every penny work
2) Higher understanding of the value of money
3) Business ventures & how they must run with absolute perfection and accounting
4) Spouse negotiations
5) Patience
6) Staying power
7) Coping with ups and down of life
8) Being tough skinned
9) Negotiations with people on sensitive issues
10) Higher awareness of what makes people tic
Excellent
Posted by The Mayor on 04-Nov-2004 09:09:19 (#10761)
You got it! The point is the gambling has a bad name, but what we do is good and it is character building. We get a bad rap.
Here are the points you mentioned:
1) Respect for money and how to make every penny work
2) Higher understanding of the value of money
3) Business ventures & how they must run with absolute perfection and accounting
4) Spouse negotiations
5) Patience
6) Staying power
7) Coping with ups and down of life
8) Being tough skinned
9) Negotiations with people on sensitive issues
10) Higher awareness of what makes people tic
Revised future editions are the answer *NM*
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 07-Nov-2004 23:29:48 (#10788)
November Podium
Posted by Sohrab on 31-Oct-2004 22:44:19 (#10719)
Amen, Mr. Mayor. Amen.
Yes, Strength and Honor=Rob M. *NM*
Posted by Ouchez on 01-Nov-2004 17:18:51 (#10727)
Beatable CSMs?
Posted by zengrifter on 01-Nov-2004 21:42:16 (#10729)
BJ authority Ted Forester has indicated (below) in a recent CCCafe post that a certain-model CSMs are beatable. zg
--- In blackjackcardcounterscafe@yahoogroups.com, ted_forrester
<no_reply@y...> wrote:
>
> I don't really want to go into details on this question. What I
will
> do in this post is present some representative SCOREs and related
> data for a widely used, current model CSM under the assumption
that
> only count-type (or compositional) information is considered by
the
> player. This means that the following results completely ignore
> available gains from sequencing, boundary effects, side bets, and
> other methods for acquiring hole-card or next-card information. I
> will not specify the machine for which these specific SCOREs have
> been derived (approximated, really), but I will say that it is a
new
> model, and that comparable results could have been presented for
the
> other state-of-the-art models currently employed in casinos. The
> results may leave some readers scratching their heads, especially
if
> they persist in thinking in terms of latency. The vulnerabilities
> come from specific knowledge of how the machine `shuffles', and
not
> necessarily from any sluggishness of cards to re-enter play upon
> reinsertion into the machine.
>
> Two sets of results are presented. In the first set, it is assumed
> that the player places wagers during all nonnegative true counts,
> but sits out or leaves at any negative true count. In the second
> set, the player takes a similar approach once s/he has joined a
> table, but only enters on true counts of +2 or greater. Except
when
> otherwise indicated, the player is assumed to play 2 boxes
whenever
> the optimal bet is at least 2 kelly units. By convention, it is
> assumed that the player observes 100 rounds per hour and has a
> $10000 bankroll.
>
> SET 1. BET IN ALL NONNEGATIVE ROUNDS
>
> . Bet . . . .Kelly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Win/100
> Spread. . . . Unit . . . SCORE . . . IBA (%) . . . (units)
> ----------------------------------------------------------
> Flat 1 box. 41.10 . .. . 12.46 . . . 0.524 . . . . . 0.30
> Flat 2 box. 29.94 . .. . 18.14 . . . 0.524 . . . . . 0.61
> 2:1 . . . . 59.35 . .. . 42.54 . . . 0.911 . . . . . 0.72
> 4:1 . . . . 50.51 . .. . 72.19 . . . 1.252 . . . . . 1.43
> 6:1 . . . . 45.66 . .. . 84.97 . . . 1.531 . . . . . 1.86
> 8:1 . . . . 36.10 . .. . 93.27 . . . 1.566 . . . . . 2.58
> 12:1. . . . 31.15 . . . 101.99 . . . 1.758 . . . . . 3.27
> 16:1. . . . 25.91 . . . 105.28 . . . 1.882 . . . . . 4.06
> 20:1. . . . 21.98 . . . 107.98 . . . 1.952 . . . . . 4.91
> 40:1. . . . 12.58 . . . 113.50 . . . 2.046 . . . . . 9.02
>
> SET 2. ENTER >=+2 THEN BET IN ALL NONNEGATIVE ROUNDS
>
> . Bet . . . .Kelly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Win/100
> Spread. . . . Unit . . . SCORE . . . IBA (%) . . . (units)
> ----------------------------------------------------------
> Flat 1 box. 81.90 . .. . 42.70 . . . 1.046 . . . . . 0.52
> Flat 2 box. 59.52 . .. . 62.10 . . . 1.046 . . . . . 1.04
> 2:1 . . . . 86.21 . .. . 90.95 . . . 1.390 . . . . . 1.06
> 4:1 . . . . 71.68 . . . 122.56 . . . 1.752 . . . . . 1.71
> 6:1 . . . . 56.24 . . . 134.17 . . . 1.927 . . . . . 2.39
> 8:1 . . . . 47.98 . . . 140.25 . . . 1.969 . . . . . 2.92
> 12:1. . . . 39.04 . . . 146.19 . . . 2.054 . . . . . 3.74
> 16:1. . . . 31.82 . . . 150.32 . . . 2.152 . . . . . 4.72
> 20:1. . . . 26.14 . . . 150.89 . . . 2.236 . . . . . 5.77
> 40:1. . . . 14.80 . . . 154.53 . . . 2.314 . . . .. 10.44
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In blackjackcardcounterscafe@yahoogroups.com, leptokurtotic
> <no_reply@y...> wrote:
> >
> > What's the % edge Ted, please?.
> >
> > --- In blackjackcardcounterscafe@yahoogroups.com, ted_forrester
> > <no_reply@y...> wrote:
> > >
> > > I agree with John that CSMs are beatable, including all
current
> > > models that I know of. I would not want to post specifics
about
> > such
> > > machines, because the techniques are in some cases
> > counterintuitive.
> > > This hopefully makes the techniques less transparent to
> > > surveillance, at least until they become more widely known.
> > >
> > > If people stopped to think about it, they would probably not
be
> > > surprised by the fact that CSMs remain beatable. It is not all
> > that
> > > easy to design a machine that performs an instantaneous and
> truly
> > > random 'shuffle' of multiple decks of cards, and yet does it
in
> a
> > > manner that is not overly prone to jams or destruction of the
> > cards.
> > >
> > > It may seem strange, but the machines that provide the
greatest
> > > challenge when it comes to finding flaws through shuffle
> analysis
> > > are usually not CSMs, but rather the noncontinuous machines.
> Some
> > of
> > > these machines are absolutely fascinating to examine. In
> contrast,
> > > CSM vulnerabilities are usually relatively quick to find, and
> > > usually less intriguing from an intellectual viewpoint (not
that
> > > this is a consideration from the perspective of advantage
> play!).
> > > Noncontinuous machines have much more time to perform their
> > > shuffles, which gives them an advantage when it comes to
foiling
> > > shuffle-based techniques. That they are exploitable at all is
> more
> > a
> > > testament to the difficulties involved in achieving a truly
> random
> > > shuffle than any deficiency of the machines themselves.
> > >
> > > If I had to choose between a 4/6 hand-shuffled shoe game, a
CSM
> > > game, and a 4/6 ASM game, all with the same rules, I would
> > probably
> > > opt first for the CSM, then the hand shuffle, and lastly the
> ASM.
> > > Special circumstances, such as a single-pass, one-riffle R&R
> would
> > > elevate the hand-shuffled game to first choice, but under most
> > > current, real-world conditions, the hand-shuffled game would
> come
> > in
> > > second to the CSM game. CSM games have the added benefit that
> > their
> > > vulnerabilities appear not to be widely understood, on either
> side
> > > of the tables. This reduces heat, and also reduces the
> > > contestability of the terrain (i.e. there is less competition
> for
> > > available space from other APs, especially wongers).
> > >
> > > Rather than posting any specific information about CSMs, I
will
> > > offer the following generic advice to anyone interested in
> trying
> > to
> > > identify effective techniques:
> > >
> > > 1. The first step is obviously to read the relevant patent,
and
> > any
> > > earlier patents that may be related to it. The patent,
> especially
> > > the diagrams, will usually give you a good idea of the
machine's
> > > basic procedure. However...
> > >
> > > 2. On certain key points of special relevance to tracking and
> > > sequencing, the patent will usually be hazy. On these points
it
> is
> > > necessary to propose some hypotheses about what the machine
> might
> > > do. Visual inspection of diagrams provided with the patent can
> be
> > > used to narrow the range of possible hypotheses. For example,
> what
> > > is the nature of the mechanisms that insert, sort, grab or
> select
> > > cards? The nature of the mechanisms may suggest certain things
> > about
> > > where cards are inserted, how they are sorted, from where
cards
> > are
> > > grabbed and which cards are selected. A presumption that the
> > > technically simplest machine procedure is likely to be adopted
> is
> > > also sometimes warranted.
> > >
> > > 3. Once you have devised one or more hypotheses, and
constructed
> > one
> > > or more working profiles of what the machine might do, examine
> the
> > > results and design some simple little tests of your hypotheses
> > that
> > > you can carry out at the tables. It is difficult to provide an
> > > example of such a test without giving up some information
about
> > the
> > > way in which machines can be vulnerable, but suffice to say
that
> a
> > > test would usually involve memorising one or more discards and
> > then
> > > observing later rounds to see if the appearance or
nonappearance
> > of
> > > the card(s) and its/their relation with other memorised cards
> (if
> > > any) is in accordance with your hypothesis.
> > >
> > > 4. At this point you are ready to test your hypotheses in the
> > > casino. If your hypothesis is quite specific, but
unfortunately
> > > turns out to be incorrect (which is quite likely, especially
in
> > the
> > > preliminary stages of your investigations), it should not take
> too
> > > long to realise it. If early evidence supports your
hypothesis,
> > you
> > > should be cautious and test it until you have reason to be
very
> > > confident of its validity.
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In blackjackcardcounterscafe@yahoogroups.com, sys381
> > > <no_reply@y...> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > --- In blackjackcardcounterscafe@yahoogroups.com,
> popcornlover01
> > > > <no_reply@y...> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > > After checking out the official webpage
> > > > (http://www.borisbj21.com/) I
> > > > > > would have to agree with John. This guy is full of bad
> > > > information
> > > > > > and his advice is worthless. There is no modified basic
> > > strategy
> > > > or
> > > > > > betting progression that will give you the advantage
> against
> > > the
> > > > CSMs.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I don't know how accurate his software is, but Casino
> Verite
> > > from
> > > > > > QFit will do all the same things (and MUCH, MUCH more)
for
> > $60
> > > > > > cheaper. Also, Casino Verite is the industry standard
> > > simulator
> > > > and
> > > > > > shuffle analysis software. Card counters do not like to
> > > gamble,
> > > > they
> > > > > > like to know what to expect. I don't know why any AP
would
> > > take
> > > > their
> > > > > > chances with the Boris software.
> > > > >
> > > > > If many casinos start using the continous shuffle
machines,
> is
> > > > there any hope for the
> > > > > advantage player?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Yes. There are ways to beat the things.
> > > > I published a few techniques in the book you can see above
> > there.
> > > > There are others. After the book was published a lot of
places
> > > > started dumping the devices and they have never gained the
> > > industry
> > > > domination the shufflemachine companies hoped for.
Casinos with CSMs
Posted by cyrano on 01-Nov-2004 22:35:14 (#10731)
Do you know which casinos have what brand/model CSMs?
ZG...What book is your poster referring too? *NM*
Posted by phantom007 on 03-Nov-2004 08:27:28 (#10741)
Get The Edge At Blackjack by John May
Posted by Scooter on 05-Nov-2004 02:30:12 (#10770)
I went to the site and read the postings. I think the book he refers to is Get the Edge At Blackjack by John May.
NOT! John May merely plagerized the original ...
Posted by zengrifter on 11-Nov-2004 03:22:05 (#10811)
... theories of Clark Cant on the CSM subject. zg
Where is Clark Cante?
Posted by Titaniumman on 11-Nov-2004 10:33:21 (#10817)
I hope I put the "e" on the right part of the name, it's been so long, I'm not even sure.
Clarke [ :-) ] used to disappear for a couple or three months at a time, but he's been gone so long this time. Master of the run-on sentence, and perpetrator of outlandish bullshit, he still was quite a theorist.
I wish he was still around, if only to watch him torment the Don.
:-)
Ah but ZG...
Posted by John May on 15-Nov-2004 10:45:59 (#10864)
...you plagiarized your "Grifter's Gambit" from Joseph Wronski, the mad 12th century Polish inventor, after you travelled backwards in time through a wormhole machine stolen from John Titor, the net's most famous chrononaut, thereby altering the course of the history and accidentally creating a permanent 6:5 blackjack dystopia in our timeline....
That's what I'm talking about.
Posted by Titaniumman on 15-Nov-2004 12:00:50 (#10868)
For you newer folks, that's a typical fraction (about one sixth) of a sentence of CC.
Excellent "plagerism", John.
You're still not on my CC list, though.
:-)
new poster
Posted by Gorilla Player on 02-Nov-2004 10:05:10 (#10732)
Hello guys, I've just found this forum, found bj21 a couple of weeks back, etc. I'm a relatively new counter, doing this for about 4 years now, using traditional hi-lo. Been doing well, no intentions of becoming a pro as I have a full-time university job, so y playing is limited to maybe once per month sometimes more, with a couple of trips to Vegas a year as well.
The counting part of this is pretty trivial to deal with IMHO, it is much more interesting to deal with all the other issues. Avoiding getting kicked out. Finding the best games (ie most SD I find is 6:5 and I won't play it), and of course, money management.
I have a good feel for the math (I am a Ph.D. in computer science) but I'm sure I have a long "education process" to go through.
I started playing BJ about 10 years ago, and learned to play BS perfectly. And armed with that, I've won some and lost some, about as expected. My wife got interested in casino play a few years back, as she had visited the MS casinos when they first opened, and went maybe once a year until she got me interested. I had known that BJ was beatable, but never considered it until we made 3-4 trips to the coast in a 2 month period, plus a couple of trips to Vegas to see a concert (she is a BeeGee fan, as well as Celine fane, so I decided I'd see how hard this could be. My math skills and program debugging skills make it easy to maintain things like a card count, even an ace side count although I don't use it at present, etc. So, in short, I'm having fun, drilling myself all the time, and serving as a very slow drain on Casino funds. :)
Looking forward to learning more here. I had heard many mentions of Eliot over the past couple of years. I'm now beginning to get an idea of why that is. :)
Welcome GP!!...
Posted by phantom007 on 03-Nov-2004 09:01:02 (#10742)
You and AM should get along just fine. Certainly this is an excellent site, and the price "just can't be beat"!
Sounds (actually reads) like you are from the South. I hit Tunica monthly, and LV 1-2x/yr. Have never hit the "Coast", but it is on my "too-do" list.
As regarding statements in your post above, I suggest to disagree with 2 issues:
#1---"Getting kicked-out" is a major concern, but for ME at least, a secondary issue. My biggest enemy is "ME"....playing 36 hours straight, drinking too much, overbetting B/R, underbetting during down-cycles, etc., etc., are all enemies that "while better", I have not yet conqured. If you have overcome these, I salute you!
#2---6:5 BJ should not totally be disparaged! Easily beatable with 8:1 spread at 60% pen., using a Multi-level Ct., with at least 2 side-cts., one of which must be Ace's. No Problem!
Otherwise, again, Welcome to CC.com. Looking forward to your posts.
phantom007.
thanks... and...
Posted by Gorilla Player on 03-Nov-2004 10:30:05 (#10743)
Yes I am from the South. Birmingham Alabama in fact. I'm not that secretive about who I am, I try to be careful enough with the internet harvesters that try to soak up everything, but I'm hardly paranoid.
I look forward to chatting with Eliot at some point. He and I have a common interest both in blackjack and in chess (I'm a chess player as well, and have written a well-known freely-available computer chess program "crafty").
My abilities can be summed up pretty easily in card counting. The counting itself is pretty "second-nature". But yes, it is easy to get lazy or tired or whatever (I do absolutely avoid chip-remover when playing) and make betting mistakes, I'm not even sure I do this right in the best of times. :)
I dislike 6:5. Yes, I suppose you can beat it. I've even played around with Hi-Lo with an Ace side count as that is one problem with its playing efficiency, treating an A as a 10. Good for betting. Not so good for playing. But, given the choice, I'd rather play SD 3:2 and have a significant advantage. On bj21.com bigplayer (who seems to play _everywhere_) gave me a list of 3:2 offerings in the SE. I've not been to Tunica. And he even found some 3:2 SD on the MS coast in a few out-of-the-way places.
I've been sticking with 2D/6D for the last year or so, which is available pretty much everywhere. I _really_ like SD head-to-head, of course. But I have not really studied the issue of beating 6:5 as it made me throw up the first time I ran across this "single-deck is back" with the 6:5 stuff in the ultra-fine print. I played this game in Vegas, not noticing the tiny sign, and the first natural produced a bit of "discussion" between me and the dealer and then me and the pit. I moved on.
I suppose the main point for me is that this is fun. Which bodes poorly for the casinos. I've been working on a computer chess program since 1968, longer than any other chess programmer in history by a large amount. What I enjoy I tend to keep doing. And since it makes money as well, it can't be bad. I won't be worrying about "N0" or long term. :) Of course, I am 56 years old, so long-term isn't _that_ long term for me... :)
Greetings (and then some!)
Posted by The Mayor on 03-Nov-2004 11:15:32 (#10744)
Hi! Welcome to this site. I was taken away by the election so I have been neglecting my duties to this site the last few days.
Yes, we already know each other, although you may not recall why. I'll get to it later.
>Yes I am from the South. Birmingham Alabama in fact. I'm not that secretive about who I am, I try to be careful enough with the internet harvesters that try to soak up everything, but I'm hardly paranoid.
That is very refreshing. Many top players I know are not too paranoid. Out every day, they know what they can and can't do, and if something bad happens, there are plenty more places to play.
>I look forward to chatting with Eliot at some point. He and I have a common interest both in blackjack and in chess (I'm a chess player as well, and have written a well-known freely-available computer chess program "crafty").
Now, this is amazing. I used to run your program online from my SPARC station when I lived in Ohio on FICS (or was it the old ICC before it was a pay site?). In fact, I ran the original login name "crafty" with your permission, as you debugged some of the early versions. Later, I crafted an online personality using the Zippy interface, named "meru" (named after my dog) that had about 250 different things it did. I still play almost daily on FICS against your versions of your program (but not under the name "mayor" any more, though my login still exists.
>I suppose the main point for me is that this is fun. Which bodes poorly for the casinos. I've been working on a computer chess program since 1968, longer than any other chess programmer in history by a large amount.
And what you DIDN'T say is that you WON the world computer championship with one of your early programs!!! Fine work. Top notch. Then didn't Hans Berliner win it shortly after that? I do forget my early chess computer history, but I recall Berliner's program in the mid 80's playing at a tournament in Ohio I was at.
>What I enjoy I tend to keep doing. And since it makes money as well, it can't be bad. I won't be worrying about "N0" or long term. :) Of course, I am 56 years old, so long-term isn't _that_ long term for me... :)
Let me throw out the welcome mat to you and invite you to contribute here in any way you like.
With respect and affection,
--Mayor
thanks...
Posted by Gorilla Player on 03-Nov-2004 11:36:49 (#10748)
======================================================================
Now, this is amazing. I used to run your program online from my SPARC station when I lived in Ohio on FICS (or was it the old ICC before it was a pay site?). In fact, I ran the original login name "crafty" with your permission, as you debugged some of the early versions. Later, I crafted an online personality using the Zippy interface, named "meru" (named after my dog) that had about 250 different things it did. I still play almost daily on FICS against your versions of your program (but not under the name "mayor" any more, though my login still exists.
=======================================================================
OK. I certainly remember those days. Crafty still plays on ICC, has since it was the "original" ICS/FICS, before Sleator went commercial.
=======================================================================
And what you DIDN'T say is that you WON the world computer championship with one of your early programs!!! Fine work. Top notch. Then didn't Hans Berliner win it shortly after that? I do forget my early chess computer history, but I recall Berliner's program in the mid 80's playing at a tournament in Ohio I was at.
=======================================================================
Obviously I could talk about the history of computer chess for hours. :) But yes, "Cray Blitz" won the WCCC in 1983 and 1986. HiTech never won it although it did win one of the ACM annual computer chess tournaments. 1985 I believe was the year. Another CMU group kind of "stole the show" of course, Hsu and the "chiptest"/"Deep Thought"/"Deep Blue" series of special-purpose chess machines wrecked havoc for years. :)
In any case, I appreciate the kind words, and am glad that we have yet another "common interest" that of depleting casino quarterly reports, albeit (for me) at a _very_ small rate...
Revisiting Thread Below, re: Mayor's BJ Zone...
Posted by phantom007 on 02-Nov-2004 10:46:32 (#10733)
Sorry for being a few days late, but the Phantom must Phloat-in and Phloat-out.
First, I will love to buy copies of Mayor's publication!
Second, "The BJ Zone" is way too close to "BJ in the Zone" by Rick Blaine (sp?).
Third, suggested covers, while good in their intent, range from "Sh#tty" to "Cheesy", to "Just another BJ Book". Mayor, sir, with ALL due respect, Roadsigns get a glance, as do skylines, but you MUST DO SOMETHING TO DIFFERENTIATE YOUR MASTER PUBLICATION from the rest of the pack!
Fourth, it appears that you desire in this Publication to BOTH educate and share, i.e., Educate on BJ Play, and Share/Educate on you Personal/Life experiences.
THEREFORE, MAY I HUMBLY SUGGEST THAT YOU CONSIDER:
1. Title: "Double Exposure".
2. Sub-title: "How to Win (and sometimes Lose) at BJ and at Life.
3. Cover: "Breasts"! Yes, "Breasts"! Seriously, a couple of well-endowed ladies using "Barney's" as Pasties, with wads of $100's shoved in their G-string panties, beating your face senseless with their "Mammary Attack", while you hold an 8-inch "Stack-of-orange" in one hand, and YOUR 10-inch DELETED-BY-CENSOR in the other! A couple of A-K's shoved in the cleavage would not hurt!
-----Guy's would buy your book, because it showed "Breasts"!
-----Lesbian's would buy your book, because it showed "Breasts"!
-----Girl's will buy your book, because "those Breast's can't be real", and will
want more info. on "who did the surgery"!
4. The Doctor Factor: Several Posters below indicated their respect and/or lack thereof, for your pH.D. (Piled Higher and Deeper). Since I too am a Doctor, on the bottom of the cover-page, you could even state something like: "All Breasts Personally Examined by Dr. Ph.007, and approved for publication."
Please have your publisher forward me $20k cash, so that I can begin the investigation for you.
GRIN!
phantom007.
Ok, Phantom. You want breasts.... *LINK*
Posted by Barfarkel on 03-Nov-2004 01:29:33 (#10738)
...you got 'em. Check out the cover of my soon-to-be-released book You've Got Heat, and let me know what you think of the cover art.
Maybe I should have titled the book "You've Got Breasts?"
Cheers,
Barfarkel
NICE STACK of chips, I mean......
Posted by phantom007 on 03-Nov-2004 08:23:43 (#10740)
Again, your cover "got my attention"! Especially the bald guy in the background! Seriously, Nice Stack! Plan to order copy of your publication soon. Will it be sold on CC.com?
phantom007.
Yes *NM* *LINK*
Posted by Barfarkel on 03-Nov-2004 21:28:43 (#10755)
The Mayor's questions
Posted by Seeker on 04-Nov-2004 00:08:43 (#10759)
Title: I agree with phantom007 that The Blackjack Zone is too similar to Blackjack in the Zone.
Ph.D.: Used properly, the degree could make the book stand out from others. The idea would be to play up the idea of going against type: the nerdy (sorry, Eliot) computer genius in amongst all the hard-partying high-rollers, the clever player who isn't doomed to lose like most of the pigeons who help keep the lights on.
Combining these ideas, I would use the Las Vegas cover. I would include the Ph.D. on the cover. I would capitalize on it in the title -- Beating Blackjack: A Computer Scientist Tackles Las Vegas or The Professor Versus the Casinos or something like that.
key largo casino/hotel 86...
Posted by gehrig on 02-Nov-2004 11:10:21 (#10734)
the joint, that is, in favor of another residential condo. just what this county needs, more "luxury" (read vastly overpriced) condos and/or timeshares.
the 21 game was never in the top 20 though with the influx of the 6:5 pestilence, it did move up a few notches.
that which i would most miss are the coral cafe, kshp radio ("radio shopping show") certificates. frequently the deal was $8 total for 2 gift certificates. one certificate was for $5 in quarters (usually just a five dollar bill at the cage), and the second was the $20 voucher for the coffee shop. instead of chasing a $5 matchplay, or even the ellis island, $4.95, *mediocre* steak "dinner", you do the math. that 3 buck net > $20 in that coffee shop would get 3 prime rib dinners on the prime rib deal night. or, 10 (!) X 1/2 pound burger & fries deals.
unlike the "authorities" who no longer are on the playing field, rather reduced to hand signals from the bench, some of us are running the bases. as a runner, i turn all the knobs to squeeze whatever of value from the joints. to play for less than all advantage is the same as counting *some* of the exposed cards.
Heading there soon
Posted by Sonny on 03-Nov-2004 11:16:54 (#10745)
> the joint, that is, in favor of another residential condo. just what this
> county needs, more "luxury" (read vastly overpriced) condos and/or
> timeshares.
I heard that they weren't closing until 1/17/05. That gives us a few more weeks to check them out. I imagine that they will be getting pretty sloppy towards the end. I seem to recall them being somewhat sloppy already.
> the 21 game was never in the top 20 though with the influx of the 6:5
> pestilence, it did move up a few notches.
I've walked out of that place several times after watching their game. Hopefully I'll have a reason to play there at least once before they close.
> that which i would most miss are the coral cafe, kshp radio ("radio shopping
> show") certificates.
What's the deal with these? How can someone get their hands on one?
> unlike the "authorities" who no longer are on the playing field...some of us
> are running the bases.
And some of us are trying to STEAL the bases! The "running" part is what can drain your bankroll. By using coupons and bonuses you can do more "stealing" than "running" sometimes.
> as a runner, i turn all the knobs to squeeze whatever of value from the
> joints. to play for less than all advantage is the same as counting *some*
> of the exposed cards.
Well put. This is something that I need to work on, especially since I play for tiny stakes.
-Sonny-
P.S.- Anybody know of any good thrift shops in Vegas? I figure the best way to blend in with the locals is to wear their clothes. =)
answers...
Posted by gehrig on 03-Nov-2004 13:13:17 (#10750)
kshp radio (am 1400) has a "shopping show", live call in 7-9am and 3-6pm weekdays; weekends, 9-12am, where one can buy gift certificates for about 6 or 700 businesses. the everyday price is about 40-50% off the face, redeemable, value. often there are sales, even daily sales, like "all businesses east of the strip" or "all fast food restaurants", or "all casino hotel shows". many lv residents thus buy oil changes for $5-$8, dozens of "sit-down" or take out restaurant deals at often 70-80% off. one can listen on line at www.kshp.com. their "shopper's catalog" is there. first time buyers can call in and at least once, must visit the station office at sahara and jones, leave a credit card on file, then buy only by phone, with their office mailing out the tickets. last week i had visitors from "back home". certificates i used were battista's hole in the wall, buca di beppo, a couple of asian retaurants, and mebbe a last, key largo certificate.
resale shops are around. the "tourist" version is on main street kinda near the gambler's general store. the largest goodwill, central warehouse and store is one block north of lake mead boulevard, just east of i-15. there was a fire there a few months back; i haven't been there lately. fwiw, that area has a couple of interesting, grungy, local joints. the "bighorn", like it's sister property, the "longhorn", kinda across from sam's town, has a 6 deck, das, 3 card dd, resplit aces, and surrender. usta be the "opera house", another grind joint in the area, had a 6 card charlie rule. i used to get gas money from that game, until it was "discovered" and published on "wong's" black chip email program. one day the table has the usual suspect, puss full hispannics (and one card counter), the next day, the smoke dulled charlie sign is 86'd and the rack has a tube of black checques.
as to cover/disguises, a popular one, for use after the construction day ends...2-3:00pm, is a stained, bleached out, construction materials supplier logo'd t-shirt, maybe some jeans you've dragged behind the pick up through the desert dirt and brush, a backhoe rental or drywall company ball cap turned around, some cheap shades on the back of your head, a longneck corona with a lime section stuck in the neck. add a handful of ugly looking, crumpled, tens and twenties for a buy in...these will get you miles of table play at most, neighborhood locals joints.
Online Bonus Hustling
Posted by mylittlepony on 03-Nov-2004 05:03:11 (#10739)
I just read November's podium on Rob McGarvey's death. I've just recently started card counting so I don't know much about him but from all the praise he's received, he sounds like a legend. It mentions that he was an expert at exploiting bonuses on internet gambling, which caught my attention because I remember before I even started card counting or even playing in real casino's, I would play at intercasino or global casino and use their bonuses to get some money, but I never knew that it could be done in a optimal way. I started to search the net and past posts on this site for information on the best way to go about it but haven't found much. Could anybody point me in the right direction? Thanks for your time, R.I.P. Rob McGarvey.
This advice I can give
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 03-Nov-2004 11:29:22 (#10746)
1. Play reputable, tested links. This was the most valuable thing Rob provided, and I knew that any of his links were to casinos with a history of paying and not scamming.
2. Read the fine print, understand exactly what you have to do to collect the bonus and make sure it makes sense given the EV of whatever game you are playing.
3. Give them a little more than the bare minimum of action.
4. Leave your money in for at least one month before requesting a withdrawal.
5. Keep records. You'll need a notebook with account numbers, passwords, action history, etc., because if you play a lot of links it will all become a blur.
Good luck!
Here ya go
Posted by Sonny on 03-Nov-2004 11:29:45 (#10747)
Keep reading all of his old newsletters and check out his $64,000 website:
http://webhome.idirect.com/~blakjack/64000.htm
He also has quite a few posts about this at the Card Counter's Cafe where he was a moderator. If you have his book you will know the basics.
-Sonny-
"EVEN MONEY IS NOT OFFERED"
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 03-Nov-2004 20:40:05 (#10753)
Was at a casino recently and as I walked by their 1D game, I checked out the rules sign posted at the corner of a table. Typical bad rules with Double on 10 & 11 only + a ploppy in nearly every seat at every 1D table. The sign also said "EVEN MONEY IS NOT OFFERED"! Why would they not want their players to have the option to take even money? I'm puzzled! Why would they do this? Are they so brainwashed by their own players from nearly all of them always taking even money that they think they are loosing money to them in this manner? I wonder what they would do if a player actually put half or less of their original bet amount out on the insurance line in an attempt to insure their BJ. Go figure!????? :-)
Why...
Posted by The Mayor on 03-Nov-2004 21:05:17 (#10754)
>Why would they not want their players to have the option to take even money?
On a 6:5 blackjack game, it gives back some of the edge to the player. Here is the computation.
If you are dealt A-T and the dealer shows A (single deck):
For your $5 bet you are paid $6 with probability 34/49 (34 non-T's out of the remaining 49 cards), for an EV on your $5 bet of:
EV = $6*(34/49) = $4.16
Now, if you let the person take even money, then the player has an EV of $5. That is, it costs the casino $5.00 - $4.16 = $.84 to let you take even money on a $5 bet, in a 6:5 games.
Repeat after me: 6:5 sucks.
--Mayor
I forgot to mention it's 3:2 payoff *NM*
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 03-Nov-2004 22:22:05 (#10756)
not a complete surprise
Posted by Victoria on 04-Nov-2004 10:04:55 (#10762)
You would think that someone high up in this casino would understand that even money is advantageous to the house. They already have bad rules for doubling.
The reason I am not surprised is that I have seen casinos change dealers before the usual time, because the table is being beat. Change the cards for the same reason. I have seen this often enough to believe it could not be because they thought the dealer was cheating or the cards were being marked. Just ploppy voodoo on the part of the house.
If I was in a casino and noticed a rule like this I would look real hard for other weaknesses based upon their lack of understanding of their own edge. There might be rules on other games that can be taken advantage of, special promotions, or weak dealers who might flash a card.
As you mentioned (insurance), the rule also makes no sense. If insurance is allowed, even money is simply taking insurance on your blackjack.
Victoria
The only reason I can think of...
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 04-Nov-2004 10:43:21 (#10763)
...is that they are very dependent on insurance bets for detecting counters. Most ploppies won't take insurance but they will take even money on a BJ. So when making this play they become indistinguishable from counters. Kind of a lame reason, but it's all I can think of.
Even not same as Insure in 6:5
Posted by V-man on 04-Nov-2004 22:03:25 (#10768)
Let's say you bet $5. Dealer shows A, you have BJ. If you are allowed to take even money, you get $5 profit.
Now instead of yelling 'even money', you insure your BJ, ie put $2.5 on the table to buy insurance.
a) If dealer has BJ, you push your hand of BJ, but get paid on the ins bet, a profit of $5. This is same as 'even money' case
b) If dealer has no BJ, you get paid $6 on your BJ hand but lost the ins bet $2.5, for a profit of $3.5. This is not the same as 'even money' case.
Was Insurance Offered?
Posted by Dog Hand on 04-Nov-2004 21:18:32 (#10767)
Stealth Bomber,
I played a few months ago at Barton's Club 93 in Jackpot, NV. They do not offer Insurance, so consequently they will not give even money on a player's BJ vs. the dealer's Ace.
Was Insurance offered at the casino you visited?
Dog Hand
Ins is offered on all but 1D
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 07-Nov-2004 22:56:34 (#10786)
The 1D tables are where this stupid little sign is posting this statement:
"EVEN MONEY IS NOT OFFERED"
The tables were also double 10 & 11 only. Therefore, I didn't care to check into it further. I just went on about my business with 6D. I still wonder though what they would do if a player pushed out half there regular bet amount on to the ins line when D shows Ace while the player holds a B J.
I'm thinking like Victoria on this. They have ploppy minded idiots running the show.
"insuramce still allowed"...
Posted by zengrifter on 05-Nov-2004 15:29:26 (#10775)
... is probably the case and what the sign did not say. zg
It might be...
Posted by SammyBoy on 05-Nov-2004 16:54:37 (#10778)
because they've had complaints from players who wanted even money after the dealer flipped the hole card. The dealer offered insurance but did not ask the ploppy with BJ if he wanted even money. Instead of requiring the dealer to ask for even money, they force the ploppy to take insurance. If this is the case it is really stupid on the part of the casino. They should be practically begging these people to take even money.
Am I confused?
Posted by Victoria on 07-Nov-2004 10:39:18 (#10780)
Or perhaps too logical for that casino?
In my opinion "even money" is simply a shortcut for a player with blackjack taking insurance. A time saver. Instead of the player pushing out half his bet and the dealer paying double on that and pushing the natural, the dealer just pays him even money on his blackjack.
Saves time, and with less chips moving around the table, it makes it easier for those watching the game.
The only other thing I can think of is perhaps they had a ton of complaints where people said that they did not ask for even money after the dealer checked and did not have blackjack. By forcing them to put out an insurance bet, the eye can be totally sure of the players intention.
Victoria
Casino managers do wierd things that don't add up
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 07-Nov-2004 23:12:40 (#10787)
In fact, I think I may have been one who was instrumental in enlightening a few casinos managers who subsequently changed all there signs at their tables.
The sign used to say:
'SPLIT PAIRS UP TO FOUR TIMES'
After making a tongue-in-cheek issue many times with the P C's, the old signs disappeared. New signs reflect what they are willing to allow in a proper statement such as:
'SPLIT PAIRS UP TO FOUR HANDS'
response
Posted by gorilla player on 08-Nov-2004 12:31:19 (#10790)
I think that if you assume that because someone is running a pit or is the games manager for a casino, that they must have some minimal intelligence about the games they offer, then you are assuming facts not in evidence, as is often said in the judicial system. Some pit critters, or games managers, are sharp. Some haven't seen a whetstone in years even though they have been cutting tin cans repeatedly...
IE even grocery store managers and department store managers know about the concept of "lost leaders". That to make more sometimes you have to take a loss on some items... The casino types seem to "want it all".
Rob McGarvey
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 03-Nov-2004 22:51:40 (#10757)
So sad,
Here was a world-class pro. Completely accessable to any first-day beginner. Giving so much of his knowlege for free just for the asking.
I always thought that was incredibly cool. I remember the first
time Rob posted (on the old message board, I think) a couple of years back.
The Mayor welcomed him and asked if he would tell a little more about who he was. I was pretty impressed with his credentials... the book and all. He was much of the reason I hung around cc.com for advice. He lent his credibility here. He was part of the success of this board, and therefore part of my success.
Thank You Mr. McGarvey,
-Felix
What actually happened to Mr. Ron McG??? *NM*
Posted by phantom007 on 05-Nov-2004 05:15:56 (#10772)
You mean Rob? *NM*
Posted by Cyrano on 05-Nov-2004 17:45:22 (#10779)
YES....Rob!
Posted by phantom007 on 07-Nov-2004 21:18:02 (#10784)
Just curious as to the cause of his demise. Some posts indicated something about a "pericardial window"....this would imply a "malignant effusion". "Rob" , ie Rob McGarvey was who I meant.
Will certainly miss his posts!
phantom007.
Terminal negative flux
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 08-Nov-2004 01:49:13 (#10789)
I heard there was a mass pressing against the heart that needed to be removed in a bad way. Rob I believe was 42, has had lung removed due to cancer and also bypass surgery at an early age, easy to see why things wouldn't be right inside the chest cavity. That's what I call bad variance. I'm almost that age, never been sick and I don't even go to the doctor. I was thinking about this the other night when the dealer rolled three face BJ's in a row against my big bets, and realized just how lucky I am.
Damn that is young!
Posted by SammyBoy on 10-Nov-2004 10:28:00 (#10800)
Wow, I can kind of remember when I was 42. That is much too young to die. RIP, Rob.
Acess denial message
ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 04-Nov-2004 05:32:13 (#10760)
We are currently checking why this access denial message is coming up. It seems to be accross the board for everyone. Sorry for the technical problems.
Playing PR in a couple of weeks
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 04-Nov-2004 15:35:25 (#10765)
It's off to Puerto Rico, and there are several casinos on the island that offer ES vs. a 10 card. PR casinos have no hole card, but only one that I know of has the European version of the rule and I'll avoid that one. I've learned all the ES plays and if I can get away with a spread I'm planning on emptying them out.
Report Please
Posted by Rockky on 05-Nov-2004 16:18:33 (#10777)
Good luck. Could you pleae report on the trip. Thanks.
Grosjean awarded $700K !!!
Posted by The Mayor on 04-Nov-2004 15:59:15 (#10766)
This message was on bj21.com (Green Chip), posted by Al Rogers:
===========================================================================
This morning in District Court, the judge gave Imperial Palace one week to post a $500,000.00 appeal bond if it wishes to appeal the jury's verdict.
The total judgment entered is for approximately $700,000.00, which includes attorneys fees and costs of about $70,000.00 and interest of about $30,000.00.
A great win for Mr. Grosjean and Mr. Nersesian, and for the player community in general
=============================================================================
Punitive damages reduced to $300,000 per statutory limit *NM* *LINK*
Posted by Al Rogers on 05-Nov-2004 09:31:38 (#10773)
In Search of . . .
Posted by Big Bill on 04-Nov-2004 22:28:00 (#10769)
On the top of the page : "In Search of the Blackjack Zone"
No, it's not the title at all, just a tag line.
I can find no references to my new favorite BJ title, but I'm new in the club and may have missed it. In my opinion, I think the definitive BJ title is:
"Hit Me!"
Centered, in big type. Pretty much says it all, especially as it relates to you telling tales about both BJ and life's ups and downs.
And I think you need some kind of really good and descriptive . . . "How to play the game of 21 like a pro" line in there to complete the loop, but I haven't figured out a really good one.
Still, I can't believe "Hit Me!" isn't top shelf, and the "in search of" really gets you to where you need to go, especially if we're calling this weird thing a place you need to seek and out occupy.
Just goofy enough, matches your personality as far as I can tell (read) and sounds like a fun, entertaining, and educational read.
Of course, I may be completely wrong ;-).
BB
Double Attack Blackjack
Posted by Scooter on 05-Nov-2004 02:38:37 (#10771)
Does anybody know anything about Double Attack Blackjack? I saw it for the first time at Trump in Indiana. I haven't seen or heard of it anywhere else. Though I am sure they designed it to be unbeatable, I would still like to probe the possibilities. None of the software programs I have can run simulations on it, and my programming skills are not up to writing a new program myself.
Much like Spanish 21, there are no tens in the deck. Blackjack pays even money. But where I think there might be some advantage is in the Double Attack part. At the start of the round, the dealer deals one up card to himself. At this point the player has the option of doubling his bet before the player cards are dealt. The rest plays out much like Spanish 21.
This has to be very advantageous to the house as no one yet knows the optimal play for this decision. Yet I suspect that this decision is very susceptible to the count.
Any information or software suggestions are appreciated.
Bad game
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 05-Nov-2004 11:52:19 (#10774)
The only time you would want to double that bet is when the probability of a dealer bust is >50%. With all the pip 10's removed, do you realize how high the count would have to be for that to be true? Plus 1:1 BJ? Sounds like a game to steer clear of.
Double Attack BJ countable
Posted by Andy Noone on 19-Nov-2004 19:44:37 (#10912)
Here's my basic strategy for Double Attack Blackjack:
Double attack (double the original bet) against 2,3,4,5,6,7, and 8!. Hard standing numbers for dealer's card: 2(15), 3(15), 4(14), 5(14), 6(14), 7(17), 8(17), 9(17), X(17), A(18). Soft standing numbers: 2(18), 3(18), 4(18), 5(18), 6(18), 7(18), 8(18), 9(19), X(19), and A(19). Surrender hard 17's (2 or more card 17's) against dealer's A. After doubling down or splitting aces, surrender 16 vs 8, 9, X, and A; and surrender 17 vs A. Double down 11 vs 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9, and X. Double down 10 vs 2,3,4,5,6,7, and 8. Double down 9 vs 6. Double down soft 18 vs 5 and 6. Double down soft 17 vs 5 and 6. Double down soft 16 vs 6. Split 2's (3,4,5,6,7); 3's (3,4,5,6,7,8); 6's (5,6); 7's (2,3,4,5,6,7); 9's (4,5,6,8,9); 8's (all); A's (all).
Try this simple count A, 9, X (-1); 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 (+1); and 7 and 8 (0). You'll be double attacking about 7/12 of the time, so it's better to base the EV on this higher amount (7/12 x 2 bets + 5/12 x 1 bet) than on the original bet. Here's how (I believe) the EV depends on the true count (TC): -0.5%(TC=0), 0.2%(TC=1), 0.9%(TC=2), 1.6%(TC=3), 2.3%(TC=4), 3.0%(TC=5). Here are some strategy variations that depend on the TC:
double attack (vs 2):0, sur.16 (vs A and X):2, 11(vs A):1, 11(vs X):0, 11(vs 9):0, 10(vs 8):0, 10(vs 9):2, 9(vs 6):0, 9(vs 5):2, 2's(vs 2 and 8):1, A's(vs 9 and A):-1, 9's(vs 2):3, 9's(vs 3):1, 9's(vs 4):0, 6's(vs 4):1, 15(vs 2):0, 14(vs 2):3, 14(vs 3):1, 14(vs 4):0, 14(vs 6):-1, 13(vs 5):1, 13(vs 6):2
Basic Count *LINK*
Posted by Ohio_Jones on 20-Nov-2004 00:21:54 (#10918)
I'm sure these games are played with 6 or 8 decks. As AM has already stated you would have to start with -24 or -28. Happy hunting for that positive shoe.
High-low method with indexes is the best for BJ....right?
Posted by daytripper on 07-Nov-2004 12:36:21 (#10781)
with all those counting systems out there, is the high-low method with the indexes as ed thorp explains it in "beat the dealer" the best one? it'd be a waste of time if I perfected that method and then had to relearn.
thanks in advance
daytripper
It depends on you
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 07-Nov-2004 19:32:29 (#10783)
As a general rule the simpler a system is the less powerful it is, and High-Low is a very simple system. It's a level 1 system which means all card weights are 1, 0, or -1. You'll find there are only about 20-30 advanced plays worth learning with High-Low.
But playing a less powerful system perfectly is more profitable than playing a more powerful one with mistakes. Put yourself in this situation: you're tired, hungry, a few drinks, distracted, horny, pissed off at your fellow players, and frustrated because you've been losing. Now think about the most complicated system you could play perfectly under these circumstances, because I can guarantee you that you will be every one of these things at some time when you are playing. That's the system for you.
one of "those" questions...
Posted by Gorilla Player on 07-Nov-2004 22:22:58 (#10785)
This is one of those questions.
Comparable to which is the best car to buy, etc.
Hi-Lo works. If you do it right, you can make money with it. There are two parts to counting/winning. Part 1 is betting big when you have the advantage and betting small when you don't. Hi-Lo is very good at this. Part 2 is playing based on the count. Since the Hi-Lo system counts aces and 10s together, you can make some playing mistakes. IE when you double on a 11, you want a 10, not an ace. So hi-lo has a lower playing efficiency than some other counts (2-level in particular). But it isn't _that_ much lower, just lower.
So, you can go with a 2-level count (or higher) and improve the playing accuracy a bit (not much help in betting however as hi-lo is very good there). The question is, will you play enough to be able to stay on top of all the n-level indices for correct play to take advantage of the better playing efficiency? Will you be able to keep up with the count at all if you don't play regularly?
As another responder said, the best system is the one you can play well...
yes, no and maybe
Posted by anon on 08-Nov-2004 22:31:45 (#10793)
...is the high-low method with the indexes as ed thorp explains it in "beat the dealer" the best one?
In the '66 edition of BTD there was no estimated true count. There was an exact index numerated by the running count and denominated by number of unseen cards. This was important in 1966. Most games were singledecked with discards collected to the bottom of the pack. Sometimes the portion of the pack remaining undealt was obvious, sometimes not. But with shuffling of the discards to complete a hand a frequent event, knowing the exact number of cards undealt was advantageous.
Was having absolutely precise indexes available for departure decisions a tremendous benefit? No, not really, because the decision tables in the book are substantially error-ridden. Specifically, the middle cards, 7 8 & 9, were over-represented in the undealt subset. Comparison of the table numbers for 12 v 2 and 16 v 7 with those of Braun or Wong will reveal this clearly.
So the strict answer to the question, ...with the indexes as ed thorp explains it..., is yes, but not with his (Thorp's) indices.
Every detail of the other two responses is correct and, as a practical matter (as opposed to an historical one), much more useful.
Is that you, mon ami? *NM*
Posted by toddler on 09-Nov-2004 13:15:02 (#10796)
Wouldn't that be ma amie? *NM*
Posted by Sohrab on 11-Nov-2004 01:15:08 (#10809)
Lost in translation
Posted by toddler on 11-Nov-2004 10:21:45 (#10816)
I've been under the impression "mon ami" roughly translates to "dear friend". Perhaps this is a gender related mistake. Please advise.
Regardless, it looks as though this is not the person in question. Although, the writing style and historical knowledge bear similarities. Wishful thinking on my part.
toddler
Not even close.
Posted by FLASH on 10-Nov-2004 12:17:00 (#10802)
Hi-Lo is only a very rudimentary system. It has a very low playing efficiency and only a moderate betting correlation. Be aware that playing a more advanced system with errors will LOSE you some of your advantage. If you MUST use Hi-Lo or you choose to because you are only a recreational player who plays a few hrs. a week for modest stakes, at least do yourself a favor and use Hi-Lo as it is elucidated in "Professional Blackjack" by Stanford Wong. A very inexpensive book. IF you are a serious student of BJ then it behooves you to learn a more powerful system. If you are playing mostly 6 or 8 deck shoes then I suggest the ZEN COUNT as presented in Arnold Snyder's "Blackbelt in Blackjack" If you play mostly 2 deckers I suggest that you study the Advanced Omega II from "Blackjack for Blood" by Bryce Carlson.
Good Luck and Aces and faces to ya'
Further than a country mile
Posted by Gorgon on 10-Nov-2004 14:05:19 (#10803)
What system would you recommend for playing Super Fun? Perhaps UBZII?
recommended system
Posted by Gorilla Player on 10-Nov-2004 16:38:42 (#10806)
The "Excedrin system". Because the game is a headache.
:)
Hi-Low is good enough
Posted by The Mayor on 10-Nov-2004 18:28:27 (#10807)
The thing that beats SF21 is getting a deeply dealt game and a huge spread.
Are SF21 games only in Vegas? *NM*
Posted by Pet's-Pet on 11-Nov-2004 10:43:52 (#10818)
sf good luck tough game
Posted by eyesfor21 on 11-Nov-2004 22:13:05 (#10825)
no, and there is heat so don't get too excited..
got tossed last week for doing a somewhat small spread
got blackjack..then the guys in suits came down from
viewing to say bye bye..the pit was taken by surprise..a little
different..but all the same
the basic for sf21 is different too.
ex.db 10 vs 10 is basic stratelgy so is
splitting 9's with A
Hitting 4 card 17 is basic too.
Chameleons at the Gate
Posted by Gorgon on 13-Nov-2004 14:10:20 (#10847)
That's the bad news about hitting a 4 card 17; it's pretty glaring. So instead of this game offering the good player less heat, we have just the opposite effect because of the unusual basic strategy.
My experience has been that the eye is also concerned with the accuracy of your surrender play. They realize that the average ploppy is not going to know about these "advanced" plays, so it's easy to categorize any player almost instantly.
Therefore, cover plays should command a higher priority for this game as opposed to bet-spreading.
Furthermore, I have to assume that Hi-Lo wouldn't not be the best choice for this game for the reason previously stated; i.e., bet-spreading against multi-decks being Hi-Lo's forte. Something like Uston SS or even AOII is likely to perform closer to optimal in regard to both EV and longevity. But you still need the minimum of 12 hands dealt per shuffle unless you don't mind wasting your time.
Hi-Lo BC
Posted by Gorilla Player on 10-Nov-2004 15:42:56 (#10805)
I could easily be wrong, but I thought Hi-Lo BC was like 98%? PE is something like 51% which is not great, but with a max of 70% it doesn't look so terribly bad. I've never tried to figure out how much of a loss that PE turns into in actual play however.
Did I miss something on Hi-Lo BC???
Hi Lo is okay-can convert to Halves
Posted by KennilworthKid on 11-Nov-2004 13:09:14 (#10822)
Well, I appreciate the opportunity to weigh in on this...these forum are one place place I can talk (who knows someone may pay attention!)
I play for entertainment & I use Hi-Lo. I have experimented with halves and AOII...I found I had difficulty in the casino with these despite hours of successful play on my kitchen table. I had to swallow my pride and go back to Hi-Lo, but winning some $$$ soothed my bruised ego.
Buy Blackjack Attack, you can get some comparisons of the performance of the various systems.
Hi-Lo can be souped up, by encorporating side counts (aces sevens-nines), to increase its insurance & playing efficientcy. Its betting efficientcy is very good without the extras. Thus, if you wish to complicate your system, you can approach the performance (and complexity) of the other systems.
Also, Hi-Lo is a close cousin to halves, and the stategy tables to Hi-Lo can be used without much decrease in performance if you are using the halve count system. You might try that in single & double deck games.
As I play mostly in Vegas and for small stakes, I usually play multi-deck games, and Hi-Lo is well suited to those games. When I play singles, I add the strategy variations as per Stanfor Wong's Professional Blackjack to get a little more edge, and try to factor in the ace counts sometimes.
Hi-Opt II (Risk Averse) Indices
Posted by FLASH on 10-Nov-2004 12:09:23 (#10801)
I am looking for a set of Hi-Opt II (Risk Averse) Indices - beyond the basic 16 - 20 important ones.
Can someone help me out please?
even with RA applied to only 10...
Posted by zengrifter on 10-Nov-2004 14:34:57 (#10804)
... indices you will glean 98% of all available RA advantage. So you do NOT need any nore than this.zg
Sure
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 12-Nov-2004 22:08:48 (#10843)
I'm on the road right now but I think I can help you. Not sure what you mean by "risk averse", these are the plays I use and I've eliminated all plays that give more risk than benefit. This is for S17, DOA, DAS, LSR.
Hit/Stand
12 vs 2--- 5
12 vs 3--- 2
12 vs 4--- 1
12 vs 5--- -2
12 vs 6--- -1
13 vs 2--- -1
13 vs 3--- -3
13 vs 4--- -5
16 vs 9--- 7
16 vs X--- 1
15 vs X--- 6
14 vs X--- 14
Hard DD
11 vs 2--- 2
10 vs 9--- -2
10 vs X--- 8
10 vs A--- 6
9 vs 2--- 2
9 vs 3--- -1
9 vs 7--- 6
8 vs 5--- 6
8 vs 6--- 4
Soft DD
A8 vs 5--- 3
A8 vs 6--- 2
A7 vs 2--- 1
A4 vs 4--- 1
Split
XX vs 4--- 11
XX vs 5--- 8
XX vs 6--- 7
Surrender
16 vs 9--- 0
16 vs X--- -4
16 vs A--- 0
15 vs 9--- 4
15 vs X--- 0
15 vs A--- 4
14 vs X--- 4
13 vs X--- 11
88 vs X--- 1
I believe...
Posted by gorilla player on 13-Nov-2004 00:58:53 (#10844)
that what he meant was indices that have less "risk". For example, say that doubling a hand has an EV of +.17, while hitting has an EV of +.16. The "hit" is more "risk averse" as you have 1/2 the money riding on the outcome of that particular hand.
There are several hands that fit this, most of which are of the form that cause you to increase your bet (doubling, splitting). For counters, this happens on the index point for a particular BS deviation. IE suppose you run a set of sims and discover that you go from hit to double at a TC of X. At X-1 the EV for hitting is barely better than the EV for doubling. At X, the EV for doubling is slightly better, but "slightly" being the operative word. If you flip a coin with 10 bucks on the table, there is less risk than if you flip it with 20 bucks. Even if there is something odd about the coin that makes it come up heads 51 times out of 101 flips.
If that was obvious, sorry I broke in. I like the idea of risk-averse myself, as the variance can already go nuts.
Today The Plaza added...
Posted by zengrifter on 11-Nov-2004 03:19:29 (#10810)
... 5 more 2D/$5 tables, near the sportsbook. Same deep pene, etc. zg
Zen you beat me to it.
Posted by Goose on 11-Nov-2004 05:41:29 (#10812)
This must be good news. At least for us.
not for me
Posted by gorilla player on 11-Nov-2004 10:00:35 (#10813)
I can't get out there until December. :(
Is this permanent or just a trial of some sort?
Barrick
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Nov-2004 10:08:43 (#10814)
Ever since Barrick Gaming bought out the Plaza and the Las Vegas Club from Jackie Gaughan, the games have been decent to excellent. The buyout happened sometime in Late March (as I recall).
--Mayor
And we're all posting this on a public, free board because....? *NM*
Posted by toddler on 11-Nov-2004 10:13:12 (#10815)
because...
Posted by gorilla player on 11-Nov-2004 10:47:03 (#10819)
we are "good guys". :)
Good question
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Nov-2004 11:09:18 (#10821)
Good question toddler, it deserves an answer.
Anyone who wants (including casinos) can get in to Green Chip, buy a copy of CBJN, read Fine Tuner's monthly report, etc. There is no secret about the general nature of the good games for counters in LV. This information has never been a secret.
I have personally written to Barrick and thanked him for the good games he offers (twice). I have written a podium about him (April 2004). Maloof is another example of someone who has consistently offered good games, and the Palms now has a reputation for their games that draws customers.
The good owners are not afraid of a few counters. They know that good games will bring in customers, gain them reputation, and ultimately pay off far more than the damage a few would-be counters could do.
What you will never find mentioned are those games that are the real *money* games in LV. I am sure many readers know exactly what I am talking about.
--Mayor
Mr. Mayor
Posted by Sohrab on 11-Nov-2004 15:07:32 (#10823)
I would not expect you to name places but maybe you could suggest some things for us to look for? Surveilance sees game from above, not from table level where we look at it.
Suggestion
Posted by The Mayor on 12-Nov-2004 01:37:18 (#10830)
Look elsewhere, being a card counter at blackjack is not the answer:
http://www.cardcounter.com/podiums/podium_12_2003.htm
Please write a letter to Boyd *NM*
Posted by Gibbs on 12-Nov-2004 01:55:31 (#10831)
the changes so far are interesting.
Posted by gehrig on 11-Nov-2004 10:57:51 (#10820)
the western has been cleaned up even a bit more. the plaza will be promoting some poker events i believe. the "rick"/magnum p.i. spokesman is hawking the plaza food venues. they now offer an upgraded, sunday brunch. best could be the 9# hamburger deal. they've bought abutting properties for expansion. the ideas for the new facilities seem worthy.
as to the 21 games, let's see how the sweat aspect plays out. any card counter worth a sh*t could construct a game that on the face of it, would be attackable yet would actually increase the overall hold. the way i'd play the hand is to even offer well publicised, "card counter" conventions/events. while many "advantage" players wouldn't appear, no doubt the number of wannabe/supplicants would be legion. if they tossed in some cheap room deals, like as not, the significant others accompanying the "experts" would bloat the slot hold to eclipse the 21 cash prizes.
Mr. Mayor?
Posted by phantom007 on 11-Nov-2004 23:22:42 (#10827)
Did not YOU write letters to Barrick when said entity took over Plaza, et.al., and advising said entity of the PROFITABILITY of same action?
Something like "offer good games, and gains from the "ave. player" will greatly exceed any losses to CC's?"
This is just from memory.
phantom007.
Exactly
Posted by The Mayor on 12-Nov-2004 01:32:11 (#10829)
When I wrote (and spoker personally) to Barrick I made these points:
1) Deep penetration means more rounds per hour and less shuffling, which means more profitability.
2) Good games means a better reputation, which means more players, which means more profitability.
Good games for us are also good for them, and a few smart owners know it.
--Mayor
1st annual world class BJ player tourney!
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 11-Nov-2004 20:01:26 (#10824)
Got your attention, didn't I?
This could be done in such a way where the casino wins and the players are excited about the competition and recognition of advantage play. Think about it. The best players from everywhere congregate in LV every year to find out who is the king of kings, the best of the best player for a very large pot. They all show up in full disguises. If properly marketed, everybody wins.
I can just see it where spectators pay to watch the final round. It's shown in a grand show room on giant monitors while it can also be televised later.
I just think we need to start thinking outside the box. We should consider the fact that we are a special elite community and there are great marketing aspects associated with that. People will pay to see the best players square off at the table while adding in the mystic of the greatest players being there incognito.
It's all just in the marketing.
SB
Suggest "BJ-SURVIVOR"!..........
Posted by phantom007 on 11-Nov-2004 23:17:52 (#10826)
Reality TV series in which BJ Pro's (Wong, Mayor, Bear, Schlisinger, et.al.) and a bunch of Semi-Pro, though AAA-rated "wanna-be's" all hit LV with $50k B/R, #3 Books of LV Advisor Coupons, and #0-18 Condoms, to be determined by random drawing.
We will NOT "bounce" each other....rather, LOSERS will be "bounced" by casinos.
Some general ideas:
1. Full 86....player is off Treasure Island!
2. Flat-Bet and/or other Back-off...still "in-the-game", but limited to Western, El Cortez, and Silverton, plus any store that serves the "low-cal" version of BJ, i.e. 6:5.
3. Net Winnings + Free Buffets + other RFBA + "Free Hooker(s)" + T-shirts + Misc. trinkets, will all be figured in to the Grand Prize winner....some trading among players will be tolerated....for example only, Victoria may not desire "free condoms" nor "hookers"....she will be free to trade these to someone like "Phantom007" for his 2:1 BJ Coupons at Gold Spike.
4. Optional Re-buy....Players 86'd and/or otherwise "tapped out" may still trade "condoms" and "Free Hookers" to Phantom007 in trade for a couple of Reds.
5. Phantom007 will be unlikely to leave his hotel room for this show, therefore, off the camera, and thus free to "play another day"!
GRIN!
pH.7.
I know I am.....
Posted by Victoria on 12-Nov-2004 12:26:42 (#10838)
busy that day, week, month, decade or whatever, so sorry will decline the invitation, the condoms, the hookers etc, just send the 2 for 1 BJ coupons.
Victoria
"BJ-SURVIVOR SHOW"
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 12-Nov-2004 14:53:37 (#10841)
Not a bad idea. Hmmmmm, how about dropping the hookers and condoms though and the participants get 50k to go into battle with. First to get to 500K gets to keep the money. The problem though, is how to get it televised.
More fuel added to my thoughts
Posted by Stealth Bomber on 12-Nov-2004 21:04:40 (#10842)
How about some ideas, additions, suggestions or comments on this. Here's my idea again (revised) below:
We need something really big; how about having a select group of 100 players congregating every year to square off in a points battle or in elimination rounds. 40 hands per round on 6D shown on big monitors seen live at maybe MGM while also televised on GSN. The disguises, the mystic, the hype, the excitement, the comedic anouncer, the BIG MONEEEEEEY!!!!!! The anonymity of the players gets protected by security in addition to other various means.
The public would go wild over it. It could be so big and beyond the usual norm. We need someone who knows how to talk the talk to the big boys for us. Someone who is connected and can think big and outside the box. It could be so big that every year the big casinos even fight, compete and bid for who gets to sponsor it.
Don't forget. We the AP's of the world are what helps to drive the gambling industry. We are what gives the typical ploppy the dream of grandeur and that the games can in fact be beat.
This is a possible way for us to work together with the big casinos at least for one special event per year. Then we go back to fighting again as per usual. It makes for an incredible opportunity. It could be so perfect because it's so opposite. It's like making oil and water mix for the very first time!
Hmmmmm, I wonder which of the big casinos is going to step forward first. Place your bets my friends.
Bulgaria BJ
Posted by Tonza on 12-Nov-2004 01:01:29 (#10828)
I was wondering if anyone had any info on BJ in Sofia, Bulgaria.
Any info at all would be greatly appreciated
Thanx in advance
Tonza
St. Maarten
Posted by blackjackhack on 12-Nov-2004 02:33:59 (#10832)
I'll be traveling to St. Maarten shortly, and I'm looking for info on conditions there. If your info is not suitable for a public forum, please email me at yourworstnightmare@punkass.com and I'll attempt to offer reciprocal info of comparable value on other locales.
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