Blackjack Message Archive from CardCounter.com

At one time, the website CardCounter.com held an active message forum with many contributors. When the previous site owner planned to shut down the site, he allowed us to archive the messages here at BlackjackInfo. They are formatted as they originally appeared, but no further comments on threads are permitted. If you want to discuss any of these topics, please do so at the BlackjackInfo Forums.

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Threads 1711 to 1740

Getting crowded
Posted by trixie on 03-Apr-2005 19:19:19 (#12670)

Up early at my hotel and sit at an empty $10 DD table. Play a match$5 and run it to 10 units on one deal. Leave with a crowd around to sit and run DT. Maybe this is the day.
Run DT and sit at a $10 DD with one player, I get a players card and they ask the other player to get one. He declines twice and I notice he has 2 stacks of green about 7-8 inches high, short stack red,- OK I'm profiling. I'm doing OK and 10 minutes later the PB comes around again with a clip board to count his chips. Asks if he will move his green so he can make an accurate count and again goes through the players card offer. Shakes his head, must be mute. 10 Minutes later, same thing and I notice we're riding our bets. 10 Minutes later I color up 22 units and head down the street.
Find a slow DD table with 2 gamblers and 2 guys joined at the hip. The 2 guys are playing red, mostly matching each other and some an increase in total, 1 & 5. OK so here I go again. They bet 8red each and get a cheques play call. I'm at min, damn have I reverted to reversing the count? I'm at -2. I draw out, they both bust and their bets get very humble. I'm out of there shortly -4 and down the street.
Find a store with $5-SD tables uncrowded and give it a try. Realize I don't know the game but decide to give it a try. What the hell, it starts at TC. Playing with one other player who has the balls to wong out continously with the greatest excuse I've ever heard. I'm really impressed but this may be his only store left. Exit -6 and quite a lesson. Don't know what I'm doing at SD so up the street.
Opened a $10 DD table and was soon surrouned with gamblers and fast dealers who give advice and left -4. Up the street.
Opened a $5 table with green dealer and got a 65% cut card on the second deal but it was the wrong way up. Threw my 1st hand across the table and gave the PB my players card and stormed away. Dealer had discovered how to make her life easier by shuffling less. Found a 2/3 deck where the PB sent me and found contented but crowded table. Was sitting off 1st base with open spots either side when here came Mr. Hollywood. Hyper type, reflective high contrast sunglasses, standing and playing with chips and if that wasn't enough announced he played with his chips. Brought a bag of red and one's who quickly asked if I could move over so he could play both spots. I didn't understand and wished him good luck. He asked again and I gave him the cup holder from my left. No luck, he insisted and I moved over. He played 5s on the spots and 5 on one spot on the deals thereafter. Jumped up to 2 $25+ capped with
a single on plus counts. He got immediate attention from the pit and then heat disappeared. Damn if I'm gonna move, camera was on him only, I hope. What an ego. Took him a half hour to figure out I was next to him and he had to confirm it by placing a single $5 on a plus 3. I jumped up and before he left he had to tell his Ego couple who were watching him that I was a "hush hush", loud enough for the dealer. He left with half a sack which he proclaimed was a $60 per hour profit. I'll never give away an AP and I hope this doesn't but this is really too much.
OK, I know I'm venting but it really seems to be getting crowded out there.

Thank God for Ploppies.

My Experience is Different.....
Posted by phantom007 on 03-Apr-2005 22:18:01 (#12672)

I have rarely encountered other GOOD AP's at my table. And the few times it has occured, it it pretty much obvious to anyone who wants to observe!

Player 1B (the "other guy/gal") and Player 3B (me), always raise/lower their bets at the same time, and likely MOST OBVIOUS, when juicy Ins. situations arise, seem to be racing against each other "TO GET THEIR BET OUT"!

Likewise, in multi-deck games, seem to be racing each other to the bathroom when the count tanks, with the LOSER forced to "Min. Bet" the remainder of the cards, and the WINNER, depending on gender, forced to either "Shake-it" and/or "Wipe-it" FOR THE CAMERAS, just in case! BOTH Parties know that going to the bathroom at the same time is a bad idea!

Generally, if I enter a table, and later realize there is another AP ahead of me, i.e., already there, I play a few hands and leave. No sense in both of us getting barred.

Conversely, if another AP enters "MY TABLE", once it should be obvious that the situation is "mutually recognized", I give him/her a few hands to "bow out". If he/she does not leave, sometimes I do....again, no sense in both of us getting barred.....other times, I min. bet Pos. Cts., play stupid, and "EAT CARDS".

IMHO, no more than one CC'er per table should be the accepted rule.

phantom007.

Sometimes
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 04-Apr-2005 01:07:46 (#12673)

In no-heat shoe situations I've sat with other counters and we've spoken somewhat openly. This is usually in crowded casinos where you don't have much choice but to play-all and just sit there and grind away against the game- when you find a dealer giving good pen on a night like that you don't just walk away. It's good to have someone to share a laugh and maybe an obscure index play with.

The only time I got really pissed off was when there was a counter talking with me and playing next to me, we recognized each other as counters, and he started cheating. Openly capping bets and clumsily at that. And during a really high count so I couldn't walk away (although I probably should have in retrospect). I did walk away at the end of the shoe and apparently he had been removed and I started playing again, and was talking to the pit boss who caught him. I told him I wasn't working with the guy, didn't know him, never saw him before in my life, and he told me they all realized that. Good thing too, that would make me angry beyond words to be 86'ed or arrested for someone else's cheating.

NICE! *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 04-Apr-2005 19:56:06 (#12677)

What's the scoop on BJ in Arizona 4 the AP? *NM* *NM*
Posted by Anthony on 04-Apr-2005 14:29:37 (#12676)

Rat Pack Scene in Vegas
Posted by Hal Jordan on 05-Apr-2005 10:28:25 (#12678)

I would like suggestions for any vintage Rat Pack-esque shows in Vegas. Normally when I'm in town it is strictly business, but this time around I'm taking my wife for a more leisurely experience. Recently, upon reading Barfarkel's book, it dawned on me that many in this community might share an interest in this type of music. Any suggestions are appreciated.

Right on the nose *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Sonny on 05-Apr-2005 13:53:36 (#12681)

Why not see "them" live?

http://www.vegas.com/searchagent/event/SearchResultView.do?id=6267&vc1=49&vc2=lhs_txt_trib_6a

-Sonny-

WRONG BOARD! *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 05-Apr-2005 15:37:46 (#12682)

Try these two venues *LINK*
Posted by Barfarkel on 06-Apr-2005 05:37:04 (#12684)

Bootlegger's Lounge on south Las Vegas Blvd, near Warm Springs Road, south of the airport.

Also I've started to hear good things about the old Casbar Lounge at the Sahara, where Louie Prima used to wow the town after hours.

Check the lounges at Bellagio from time to time as well. Also, catch Andrew James whenever you can - I've seen him at the Galleria Bar at Caesar's and upstairs at the Aladdin.

Glad my book gave you some ideas. I'm planning to see that Rat Pack show at the Greek Isles on my next Vegas trip.

Cheers,

Barfarkel

Thank You
Posted by Hal Jordan on 06-Apr-2005 17:16:33 (#12689)

I really have enjoyed your book. It is quite enjoyable to read the adventures of a fellow 15FWY veteran. May we both avoid any future speeding tickets.

Which one of you is the kid with the blue parka and knit cap?
Posted by zengrifter on 06-Apr-2005 04:53:04 (#12683)

That was me! zg

What is your Back-off/Barring:Deck Ratio???...
Posted by phantom007 on 06-Apr-2005 10:34:27 (#12685)

In other words, what is your experience with Heat vs. #Decks?

So far, mine is 1:1 as regarding SD, DD, and 6D, and 0:1 =0 for BJ-mutants like SF-21 and Single-21.

Most all of "the books" and most all of "the posts" tell us that heat is highest at SD, and "cools off" as the # of decks increases. While I believe that this is true, so far, my experience is different, albeit I admit in advance that 3 Back-offs likely do not create a Statistically Significant Sample.

#1---DT-LV, SD, net 6:1 spread, 1-2 hands, 1 hr., won $750..."No More BJ". Mail offers ceased shortly thereafter.

#2---Tunica, 6D, net 10:1 spread, 1-2 hands, in 4 hrs., LOST $2,900. out of a total of $3,000. of several buy-ins....with $100 left, figuring this was not worth the trip to the Cage (I keep forgetting that that one Black is 2 months cable or 2 months cell phone or even #1000 packages of Ramen Noodles...local store had them on sale recently @ 10 for $1!) Switched back to Old Habits and started playing Progressive BJ....went from $2,900 behind to $2,000 AHEAD!
TAP!.....Flat Bet. Mail offers have decreased in value, since I obviously don't play there much anymore, though my "Comp Points", which were liberal since I played this store heavily for years, have remained intact, and are used by me frequently for RFB....i.e., I stay and eat there, and just play elsewhere.

#3---LV-Strip, DD, 4:1 spread, 1 hand, 6 hrs., ahead $1,100....TAP, "We don't want your action here anymore." Did she mean BJ, or any action? Mail offers have INCREASED in value!

Granted, #'s 2 & 3 SHOULD NOT HAVE HAPPENED....I should have not have been there so long that I gained voting rights and had my mail delivered there, but otherwise, just curious as to the experience of others.

Thanks,

phantom007.

Never been backed off in a shoe game
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 06-Apr-2005 15:22:26 (#12687)

Between SD and DD, I'd say it's about equal, of course I'm using a much bigger spread at DD so I would agree with the conventional wisdom about fewer decks = more heat.

my results
Posted by stainless steel rat on 06-Apr-2005 15:28:04 (#12688)

Never been backed off in 6D. All of mine were in SD/DD. None recently at all, as most of them could be directly attributed to playing too long at one table, which is a lesson I learned the hard way during my first couple or three years of counting. I now _never_ play one table more than an hour. And I try to never play one shift more than one hour either, so that I don't become "familiar" at all, although dealers will frequently remember me...

I don't play a lot of 6D, and when I do it is a mix of play-all at 1-20 spreading, or WI/WO when things are not crowded...

I haven't noticed much difference between SD/DD heat. They seem to attract about the same level of pit attention. Never tried SF21 or Spanish 21 or any of the sorta-BJ variants...

Stopwatch
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 06-Apr-2005 17:31:03 (#12690)

Yes sounds like you play just like I do, right down to the 6D spread. My last pitch trip I worked on not camping out at them like I normally would in a shoe game when I find good pen. What I did was set the stopwatch on my cell phone for a time limit, then Wong out on my next negative count. The only times I got backed off were when I failed to do this.

another way
Posted by stainless steel rat on 06-Apr-2005 19:46:01 (#12691)

A couple of years ago, I convinced my kids to give me a Bulova "vibra-alarm" watch for Christmas. Has a "beep" alarm, or a "vibrate" alarm. I originally wanted it as a way to not miss a class, since I am often in a noisy place and a deep conversation can run longer than expected. But I quickly found that the vibrate-mode of the alarm was perfect for a BJ table. No noise. No lights. Just a sudden "buzz" that only I notice.

Earlier in my playing career, I would get "in the zone" (appologies to Elliot for usurping his title a bit) and forget about the time. In a SD/DD game, that can be a killer mistake. Now I never forget to leave on time, and the problems have been _far_ less frequent as a result...

I personally believe an idiot could figure out that I am counting, given enough time. :)

4:1 spread at DD?
Posted by Theef on 07-Apr-2005 08:47:59 (#12692)

That's low. What's your secret?

winning
Posted by stainless steel rat on 07-Apr-2005 09:37:58 (#12693)

You can win with a 1:4 DD spread. Just not as quickly. The idea is to spread as big as you can get away with. Spread too much and you have to spread 0-0 when you can't play... :)

Also it depends on your unit. $5-$20 is going to win maybe $10 per hour. $100-$400 will win maybe $200 per hour.

Using the Bryce Carlson AOII method......
Posted by phantom007 on 07-Apr-2005 20:50:24 (#12696)

and the "clicking is driving me NUTS!"...see post..(click)...above in response to Mayor's Radio...(click)...post...(click).

M/L since (click...click) I have been a decent (click) CC'er, I have (click) used the Carlson (click) method of betting (click), which is (click) 2:1 for SD, 4:1 for (click) D(click)D, and 6:1 for (click) 6D....though I (click) often get nearly (click...click) twice this spread by going from (click) one-two-(click) hands (click).

I cannot (click) stand this (click) clicking any longer. (click). Going to (click) shut down (click) computer, and (click) start over (click).

Mayor, do you (click) know this (click...click) radio site requires (click) pop-ups (click)?

phantom(click)007(click).

(click)

On the radio tonight
Posted by The Mayor on 07-Apr-2005 10:24:14 (#12694)

I'm on the radio again tonight, click the link at the left. The show starts at 6PM PST. After it airs, it will be archived for 2 months, so you can listen any time.

--Mayor

???"Pop-ups Required"???.....
Posted by phantom007 on 07-Apr-2005 20:33:10 (#12695)

Dear Mayor:

In the midwest, CST, AOL 9.0, and of course, Dial-up service. Got as far as a disclaimer, re: "Opinions of the host are not necessarily that of the station"...then, DEAD AIR...and deluged by attempted Pop-ups!

Click, click, click....almost as fast as I can type "click", hear the "click" of another "pop-up" being blocked by the BIG 9.0!

Tried to hear your "archives"....."click, click, click!"

You may recall, I IS KOMPUTER ILITERATE!

Anything I can fix on my end?

Ah' will be oblig'n to any help ya'll kan give.

fantom007.

Yes...
Posted by The Mayor on 07-Apr-2005 21:44:15 (#12697)

even if you log on via AOL, you can still use a decent browser. I recommend that you download firefox, and then after logging in to AOL, simply minimize your AOL and open the firefox browser.

You'll be very happy when you finally dump AOL. Everyone should.

--Mayor

More Info Please???....
Posted by phantom007 on 08-Apr-2005 20:21:50 (#12705)

My only other choice is Cox Cable....is this better????

ph.7.

Joining a Team
Posted by Jason on 08-Apr-2005 03:55:00 (#12698)

I've always wanted to join a card counting team...I was a pretty good solo player back in the early 80's at AC. Haven't played in a while, however all this buzz on the web and TV has givin me the bug again. An article on the web said palyers use the web as a recruitment tool. Well??? Anybody out there?? Thanks Jason.

Sounds great!
Posted by Sonny on 08-Apr-2005 14:20:16 (#12700)

I am also a great card counter. I have been using the Thorp Ultimate system for 40 years and would LOVE to join your team. Just send me half of your bankroll and I promise I will send you half of my winnings every month.

-Sonny-

P.S. - THAT'S the reason you shouldn't scout teammates online. As much as I respect everyone on this website, I don't trust them with my money and they don't trust me with theirs (understandably). It's not that I don't trust them, I just don't KNOW that I can. You should think about training some family members or close friends before you start splitting your money with strangers online.

P.P.S. - I was serious about sending me your bankroll...please? =)

teams
Posted by eastcoastgrinder on 08-Apr-2005 15:40:19 (#12701)

I don't think he meant sharing his bankroll. In my situation I have spent alot of time learning to count but am still trying to build a bankroll in order to apply my skills. However, it seems the ideal situation would be to hook up with a team that has a bankroll start as a spotter and make a few bucks to invest.

Team Trust
Posted by Jason on 10-Apr-2005 00:40:33 (#12711)

Sonny!!

I don't remember asking anyone for a bankroll. I have my own money to invest in a Black Jack adventure, its just all of the reasearch I've done seems to point that groups do a lot better than singles.

Trust is a huge element in any team play, but I have to start some where, unless holdin a big sign at Ceasers that says " Sonny ive got you Bankroll!!" will help!

Jason

Managing a team
Posted by Sonny on 11-Apr-2005 10:13:03 (#12726)

> I don't remember asking anyone for a bankroll.

You didn't, I did. If you are going to play on a team then you will probably have to share a bankroll with the other players. That means that YOUR money is at risk every time one of your teammates is at the table. Even the best players can lose for months at a time. Will you still trust your teammates after they have been losing your money all month long? That is why I suggest using family members or close friends. It must be someone you have complete confidence in.

I have played alone and on small teams. I can say with complete confidence that I have NEVER been stolen from while playing alone. I am only 90% confident about the team play.

As AutoMonkey pointed out there ways that shuffle trackers or sequencers could play on a team and still play from individual bankrolls, but that may not be practical for some people's purposes. It sounds like you are trying to set up a counting-only team.

> I have my own money to invest in a Black Jack adventure, its just all of the
> reasearch I've done seems to point that groups do a lot better than singles.

They can, but most teams fail due to trust issues. Either they don't trust each other enough and accuse each other of stealing, or they trust each other too much and become the victims of stealing. There was a great three-part article in Blackjack Forum about this. That is a good place to start if you are looking for more information on forming a team. It includes interviews with some of successful teams and has a "team handbook" that is worth reading.

Team play offers huge potential for profit, but it can also be one of the hardest things to do sucessfully. It is just like starting a business. You must have great employees, great management, a great HR department, a great accounting department, etc.

> Trust is a huge element in any team play, but I have to start some where,
> unless holdin a big sign at Ceasers that says " Sonny ive got you Bankroll!!"
> will help!

You would be surprised how many people you would meet that way! =)

That is exactly my point. If you advertise the fact that you are willing to split your money with someone, you will attract all sorts of people. Most of them are people you do not want to know.

-Sonny-

P.S. - I don't play at Caesar's anyway.

Hey Sonny...
Posted by Greasy John on 19-May-2005 16:10:21 (#13057)

Drop that apostrophe in Caesars. This is a professional website!

(Just kidding)

Greasy john

Two matters of trust
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 08-Apr-2005 15:54:25 (#12702)

Proud to say, people who know me know that I'm honest and responsible to the point of being annoying and would not hesitate to trust my honesty or competence with finances.

Do you believe me? I hope not, because I'm really just a desperate drug addict with a life-threatening debt to organized crime. Do you believe that? (I REALLY hope not!)

That's my first point, it's that there are con artists out there that have an almost hypnotic ability to make you believe anything, and the only defense is constant awareness.

Here's my second point: ever have bad variance? I mean really bad variance, so bad you just can't believe it. Maybe even... so bad that your angry and possibly armed teammates can't even believe it? Or you get your pocket picked in the men's room, or robbed in the parking lot, or a crooked cop stops you and rips you off? How are you going to convince these guys you just met on the web that you're not just screwing them? Answer: you're not. You could possibly be 2 or 3 standard deviations away from a blunt instrument to the head. Not to be paranoid, just something to consider.

However there are ways to team with people where you don't share money, just information, and techniques like card steering and counting and sequencing systems that use multiple players. That might be a better way to get started as a team.

Thanks Monkey
Posted by Jason on 10-Apr-2005 00:49:01 (#12712)

Dear Monkey,

Hey thanks for the tips...yes I hope I don't have a variance like the ones you mentioned any time soon.

It seems that any biz has it's riskes I just was unsure where to start. I mean the players are at the Casinos, however running aroud a casino trying to find some players my send me directly into a, " variance"

Well this was just a stab, if anything is has been interesting watching the responses develop.

Thanks,

Jason

most teams use lie decectors *NM*
Posted by eyesfor21 on 11-Apr-2005 11:52:10 (#12730)

"Listen to Eliot"
Posted by stainless steel rat on 08-Apr-2005 13:42:50 (#12699)

I click on the link to the left, then click on the little speaker by the blurb for Eliot's talk, and get an audio "intro" but nothing else. Except of course for a zillion clicking pop-ups. Is there something else I need to do beyond that point to actually hear the archived interview???

i couldn't get it either! *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 08-Apr-2005 18:59:28 (#12703)

zg:
Posted by stainless steel rat on 08-Apr-2005 20:45:25 (#12708)

Found out how to play it.

Go to the first page at the link on left. Click the tiny "more" box after the brief text description about the interview with Eliot. That takes you to a new page that has a working link to hear the interview...

that worked for me...

Eliot's interview
Posted by Gordy on 08-Apr-2005 19:44:34 (#12704)

works great here .... make sure you have the current windows media player (free) and is more secure than earlier versions too

got MP 10 installed already.
Posted by stainless steel rat on 08-Apr-2005 20:37:06 (#12706)

Got the very latest of everything for Windows XP Pro, service pack 2, all current updates for everything including the new media player 10...

just don't get Eliot's interview, just a 10 second intro that ends with "the views presented do not necessarily ..." or whatever that says... but no way to get to the actual interview...

Directions to the Interview
Posted by The Mayor on 08-Apr-2005 20:45:17 (#12707)

Go to the Show Archive. (look for the link in the red border near the top).

Under Thursday, April 7, click on the "more" tab (small at the bottom).

Then click where it says "click here for Eliot Jacobson's interview."

Yeah, it's tough. I let Charlie know so that maybe he can make it easier.

--Mayor

thanks...
Posted by stainless steel rat on 08-Apr-2005 20:46:05 (#12709)

had just located the "more" tab... and posted a reply to zg. Listening now...

just an add no interview for moi? *NM*
Posted by eyesfor21 on 09-Apr-2005 10:27:21 (#12710)

I'll I get is a 10 second into,,is it fixed yet
Posted by eyesfor21 on 11-Apr-2005 09:11:54 (#12723)

would liketo hear it.

Read these directions again...
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Apr-2005 09:30:03 (#12724)

http://www.cardcounter.com/main.pl?read=12707

Just got back from a trip
Posted by trixie on 10-Apr-2005 14:43:16 (#12714)

Just got back from a trip and was thinking that BJ is a lot like fishing. My Dad taught me how to fish. At first I loved to go and I caught a few, mostly small ones, but he was always after the big one. Later on I had to fish by myself and did as well as everyone. I started to go more often, read books, studied the Pros. and I started to do better. There's nothing better than the anticipation of going on a fishing trip. Got to where I was doing a little better than the average fisherman. I got better equipment, studied more, practiced more, got a little better. Kept logs; conditions, locations, approach, time, results. Started to fish more often and discovered there's nothing better than time on the water. No two trips are alike, sometimes I can fill the box, most times I get something and there are times when no matter how I try, I get skunked. Sometime I get skunked several trips in a row, I blame it on everything, and on my way back in I meet a kid on the dock with a cane pole and a basket full. I try to shake it off, they're still in the water and some are getting bigger. Next trip will be the one and if it is, I won't get greedy. If it's a small lake I want to be welcomed back by the locals and if it's a big one, I'll have to get past the wardens. Once in a while I'll go on a trip with my buddys' and no matter how good or bad it gets for one, everyone gets to share in a fishfry. I'll never be a Pro. and write books or make a living out of this but my freezer always has fish and someday I might get that big one.

Just got back from a trip and was thinking that fishing is a lot like BJ.

Nice Post! *NM*
Posted by SammyBoy on 10-Apr-2005 21:18:51 (#12718)

Nice Analogy! *NM*
Posted by Praying Mantis on 12-Apr-2005 15:48:18 (#12739)

Ace predicition question
Posted by zengrifter on 10-Apr-2005 15:45:46 (#12715)

Lately, I have been enjoying some limited success using Ace prediction at 1-2D games. My question is: How negative can the deck be before it negates the value of the Ace prediction? I feel uncomfortable throwing 2 big bets out to catch an Ace that is traveling in -10 territory. zg

Depends on how accurate your ace prediction is
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 11-Apr-2005 00:04:19 (#12722)

In terms of getting an ace-face blackjack, it's going to be where the increased probability of getting an ace and the decreased probability of getting a 10 balance out. So if it's the kind of ace prediction I do where you only get about double the chance of getting an ace as normal, with two Tens per deck gone the probability of getting ace-face is down to normal. And the probability of face-ace is now half of normal. If your prediction accuracy is better the effect is smaller. But if it's a D9 game the value of the Ace without a Ten is going to go down even further. Interesting study.

Lets start like this -
Posted by zengrifter on 11-Apr-2005 10:29:56 (#12727)

Lets start like this -

If the value of the Ace is 50% edge, houw much has it fallen at hiLo -5? zg

WHERE IS MY %$*@ ANSWER!??
Posted by zengrifter on 12-Apr-2005 15:36:21 (#12736)

Do I need request such info at another forum? zg

Maybe....
Posted by The Mayor on 12-Apr-2005 15:54:39 (#12740)

I don't have the time to answer this sort of question. It is not easy. It may be suitable for bjmath or somewhere else that people are aching to do the research. For me, it is a subtle and difficult question, that would take too much time/effort to answer.

For single deck...

You will typically get (at least) one ace with probability 4/52 + (48/52)*4/51 = .1492. That is, you should expect an ace once every 6.7 hands.

My gutcheck reaction is that if you have a 20% improvement in this number (that is, a probabilty of .1790 or higher, or a 1 in 5.58 chance) of getting an ace, then make the max bet, regardless of the count. This is not based on any analysis, just instinct, which is really all I have time for right now, sorry.

--Mayor

[note. this post was edited and the math was fixed]

Excellent! My Ace prediction rate in 1-2Ds... *PIC*
Posted by zengrifter on 12-Apr-2005 20:23:57 (#12744)

... is about 40%! zg

How do I know if I am a losing counter?
Posted by Garo on 10-Apr-2005 15:48:26 (#12716)

The Mayor's Podium has me thinking that I might be a losing counter. Since I started playing as a CC I have had four sessions: win $300, lost $50, lost $700 and lost $1000. These were each weekend trips to indian casinos with around a .375% house edge. I played about 20 hours each time. I spread pretty wildly ($5-$200) so I know I will have wild swings, but after reading the Podium I think I might be playing a losing game. Until then I was confident I knew what I was doing. I have been practicing about an hour a day for seven months with Casino Veritite. Is it possible I am a losing player and wasting my time and money? Let me know what you think.

How you know if you are a winner.
Posted by shaggy18vw on 10-Apr-2005 20:33:23 (#12717)

The first thing you need to figure out is if the game you are playing is a winning game. I suggest getting a sim software (like CVDATA). Judging from your betting levels, this should not be a big expense. It is worth every penny. Use CVData to simulate the game exactly as you play it. Using the indicies that you know and the bet spreads and penetration that are realistic. From this, you will know if the game is a winning game.

To know if you are a winning player, you have two options. Play for more than a lifetime and evaluate your results. Or do a little self evaluation. Do you find yourself getting tired while playing, and continue to play? Do you find yourself losing the count? Do you ever bet other than what your count recommends (or how you have simmed your game)? These factors can make you a losing player.

If you sim the exact method that you will use in a casino and the results are good, then play exactly how you simmed, Then you are a winning player. Anything otherwise is variance.

Good luck, Good cards
-Shaggy

I disagree
Posted by BlackJackHack on 10-Apr-2005 22:15:44 (#12720)

While game selection is important, as is playing refreshed and avoiding obvious mistakes, the only way to be absolutely certain that you are a winner is by winning. While the results of four sessions are meaningless, your results after 400-500 hours are not.

Play for 400-500 hours on Casino Verite (I'm NOT kidding). If you win consistently more than you lose, it is VERY likely that you have a winning game. I'm sure somebody else can tell you precisely what the odds are of a non-AP being ahead after 500 hours, but I suspect it is a very unlikely occurrence.

400-500 hours is relatively meaningless too. *NM*
Posted by Shaggy18VW on 11-Apr-2005 11:03:09 (#12728)

Even on CV?
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 11-Apr-2005 11:16:49 (#12729)

Playing on the computer you should easily get 100 hands per hour, that's 40,000-50,000 hands, well over the N0 for that game.

But still- I can think of a better use of 400-500 hours! Playing a 1:40 spread like that, unless someone is forgetting Basic Strategy or not getting the bets out when called for it's almost impossible to be playing a losing game. Even 6:5 using High-Low is a winning game with a 1:40 spread.

Re: Even on CV
Posted by Anthony on 11-Apr-2005 13:00:05 (#12731)

I'm a little bit more than a beginning counter and live in Las Vegas and frequent the casinos often. I agree that with you about being able to beat 21, but in reality, I don't see a casino letting you spread $5 - $200 for very long. Even if your playing a loosing game such as 6-5, it's the winning swings in 6-5, that they're going to put the two together. If you're just a little greedy it may cause problems playing in the future Furthurmore, you have to be very carefull making that kind of spread for very long before brinning attention to yourself. That's 400 - 500 trips to a casino playing an hour a time with that spread. Your in a casino with humans watching their bread and butter, not a computer.

Anthony

Not necessarily
Posted by Praying Mantis on 12-Apr-2005 15:44:30 (#12738)

"Play for 400-500 hours on Casino Verite (I'm NOT kidding). If you win consistently more than you lose, it is VERY likely that you have a winning game. I'm sure somebody else can tell you precisely what the odds are of a non-AP being ahead after 500 hours, but I suspect it is a very unlikely occurrence."

Although 400-500 hours IS a good indication of your play, but playing 400 hours on a computer verses a real casino is totally different. Not only do you have to be a winner at strategy and bet placements, you also need to master the ability to play...that is, not get booted! There is a lot more to this game than what we get from a computer.

Saying that, you come out ahead after 400-500 hours of CASINO play, I think you can pretty much say you are a winning player.

Not necessarily, but *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Norm Wattenberger on 12-Apr-2005 16:28:10 (#12741)

Although 400-500 hours IS a good indication of your play, but playing 400 hours on a computer verses a real casino is totally different.

I wouldn't say totally. CVBJ does support ridiculously complex cover betting as well as cover plays. This is not the totality of putting on a good act, but is a good part of longevity. CVData supports cover betting, cover play, many types of dealer errors, player errors and other features to enhance realism.

But I will agree with you if you're using crappy software:)

Agree
Posted by The Mayor on 12-Apr-2005 17:29:33 (#12742)

A solid first step to knowing you are playing a winning game is having that affirmed by a good piece of software.

Your Software is ANYTHING but Crappy
Posted by Praying Mantis on 12-Apr-2005 20:25:16 (#12745)

"I wouldn't say totally. CVBJ does support ridiculously complex cover betting as well as cover plays. This is not the totality of putting on a good act, but is a good part of longevity. CVData supports cover betting, cover play, many types of dealer errors, player errors and other features to enhance realism.

But I will agree with you if you're using crappy software:)"

I don't mean to say that software is meaningless. It is an important tool. I just don't believe you play 400 hours on computer and win and equate the same in a casino, you may be misleading yourself.

As good as your software is...and it's the BEST, I still haven't felt the glare of the pit when I put out my max bet. Now, if you can program THIS into your software, you REALLY have something. (Don't forget other pit activities, as well) If anyone can do it, it's you.

BTW, I use different software...INCLUDING yours. (Wouldn't be without it)

I had suggested to norm
Posted by stainless steel rat on 12-Apr-2005 21:26:57 (#12747)

A while back that he ought to include some sort of "heat". There is an option to "shuffle up" on a big bet jump, but that's all. It would be nice to have some sort of "heat" if your betting tracks the count too closely, or if you make too many "spectacular" plays (splitting 10's, etc, with big bets out) or if you take insurance only when the count says to, etc...

The cover-betting stuff is pretty nice, and I have worked up a few variations depending on what I feel is appropriate based on "feel" in the pit. But it would be nice if it would nag from time to time "you look like a friggin' counter with that insurance play" or something similar. :)

As long as we're offering suggestions to Norm...
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 12-Apr-2005 23:10:20 (#12748)

How about:

An option for Perfect Play as a playing strategy, so we can calculate the PE of our own playing strategies empirically. There could also be a screen to calculate the betting correlations and average effects of removal of the each card to help compensate for nonlinear effects of removal and also oddball bonuses given in certain games (5-card charlies, 7-7-7, and so forth.) Yeah I know, easier said that done. Just tossing ideas around.

Oh and here's an easier one- how about a function in CVShuffle that measures the average relationship between the peak and/or RMS values of running count from mother to daughter shoe? Add this, and you can consider one upgrade sold!

Updates *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Norm Wattenberger on 13-Apr-2005 08:02:21 (#12749)

I tend to consider PE and EORs as only having use in determining good tag values to try out. Once you have created a strategy; they no longer have purpose.

Oh and here's an easier one- how about a function in CVShuffle that measures the average relationship between the peak and/or RMS values of running count from mother to daughter shoe?

That would be more accurate in CVData. It's an interesting thought. Substantial additional attention to shuffles is planned for CVData.

So CVData and CVShuffle will be merged?
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 13-Apr-2005 16:19:43 (#12763)

That would be interesting, being CVData handles such a huge amount of data quickly.

Not merged as such *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Norm Wattenberger on 13-Apr-2005 17:41:31 (#12764)

CVData already handles shuffles. However, it does not yet sim shuffle-tracking or Ace Prediction techniques to determine EV. This type of functionality belongs in CVData as opposed to CVShuffle.

Perfect play
Posted by Pet's-Pet on 24-Apr-2005 12:35:19 (#12842)

Hi Norm,
I would like to say that I completely agree with AM.
I think your software is great for someone who likes to travel down the beaten paths; if you study one of the good books and want to apply that knowlege to play a winning game.
But on the other hand, if you are trying to discover new approaches that will potentially go beyond what is already known into uncharted territory, then you don't want to compare yourself to a variety of systems of incomplete information that are really designed as compromises between power and ease of use. What you want and need is to compare yourself with what is considered the best, that is computer perfect play.
That is my POV, but I actually think that this feature would be of interest to almost everyone. Suppose I have somekind of semi-voodoo thought in back of my mind, like for example, if I am within 1 or 2 pts away from the index I will use my instincts to make my decision... is my instinct in this case an improvement on the hi-lo in relation to computer perfect play? I am sure this answer varies somewhat from person to person depending on their level of knowledge and memory. And if I do discover a true correlation, how far can I go? Also seeing what the computer perfect play is every time will certainly help sharpen one's instincts (then measure the extent of that sharpening).
I would go as far as saying that for any veteran there really is no point in comparing your play to hi-lo or some such system.

Just my point-of-view,
Thanks, Pet's Pet

another
Posted by stainless steel rat on 13-Apr-2005 09:14:48 (#12751)

The ability to calculate the gain/loss for a specific hand with various TC values and playing decisions.

For example, a while back (good while) I was playing and felt that I was getting more than the usual attention as things were generally going my way. On a 12 vs 2, with the PC watching, I hit and busted. Next time he watched, on the same hand I stood and lost. The next time he watched (TC was < 0) I said "OK, I hit and busted, stood and lost, so I'm going to try something else." I tossed out another min bet to double the 12 and won. He shook his head, and didn't come back. It would be nice to find out which particular
whacko plays are not EV killers. This obviously wasn't one, because it was a min bet to start with, and from some custom SIM software I wrote years ago, I found that this double is a pretty close call. But it would be nice to be able to discover this kind of play for any hand and TC... :)

That's on the list *NM* *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Norm Wattenberger on 13-Apr-2005 10:05:25 (#12754)

by the way
Posted by stainless steel rat on 13-Apr-2005 11:08:52 (#12757)

I was also hoping to get a 66 vs 2, which would have given me a 4th option in that I would have split, a normal play. And I even thought about a surrender if he had come back around again. :)

Heat *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Norm Wattenberger on 13-Apr-2005 08:05:29 (#12750)

I am planning something along this line that I have been thinking about for a few years. It's quite complex and will require its own setup page.

really cool idea
Posted by stainless steel rat on 13-Apr-2005 09:16:28 (#12752)

Mimic what Mindplay does. Then we could know if we are playing in a way that is going to cause mindplay to raise a red flag, assuming we have to play on a mindplay table. :)

If Anyone Can do it, I'd take you over the odds
Posted by Praying Mantis on 13-Apr-2005 15:33:59 (#12761)

Maybe you can add "Pref Shuffling"? That shouldn't be too difficult. I guess when that happens, the computer will have to determine if we pull out bets, or quit too soon, looking like the textbook counter?

Short term results are meaningless...
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Apr-2005 10:04:04 (#12725)

I wrote an article called "A Little Learning" that addresses the question you are asking in more detail. It will be coming out later this month at www.bjinsider.com (Blackjack Insider newsletter). That article may help clarify the matter.

--Mayor

thanks for your help
Posted by Garo on 11-Apr-2005 23:06:59 (#12732)

I'll try to be a little less greedy and a little more patient and continue to practice. I'm leaving for Vegas tomorrow, no gambling, just vacation, last trip before my wife has our first baby. If you see a rather attractive young man with a beautiful pregnet woman on the Strip say hi.

unless we die first
Posted by eyesfor21 on 13-Apr-2005 09:41:29 (#12753)

what if we pass away before the tide turns,
they short term may have more meaning.

Sorry...
Posted by The Mayor on 13-Apr-2005 10:49:27 (#12756)

I don't have the slightest idea what you are talking about. Are you saying we should violate basic strategy or advantage play principles because we are going to die some day? When you say "what if we die first?" my answer is that we will always die first (that is, before something else happens).

Speak for yourself. *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Norm Wattenberger on 13-Apr-2005 12:13:35 (#12758)

I have no intention of ever dying. Having said that, if I knew that I was to die next week; I would probably change my strategy:)

if I knew I would die next week..
Posted by stainless steel rat on 13-Apr-2005 14:55:30 (#12760)

I'd probably become a male prostitute.

If I knew...
Posted by Praying Mantis on 13-Apr-2005 15:36:31 (#12762)

I'd visit my kids and grandkids and hold them close.

Will you know it when you die?
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 13-Apr-2005 21:05:07 (#12765)

If you know that you have died, then there must be an afterlife because to know this you must be able to observe the difference between being dead and not dead.

If you don't know when you've died, then you can never observe death and relative to your frame of reference it will never happen.

So the only thing to worry about is their being an unpleasant afterlife in store for you. But that's a philosophical question that belongs on the Non-BJ board. (Like this one does!)

But the question is relevant to blackjack
Posted by The Mayor on 13-Apr-2005 21:35:25 (#12767)

Here is the question. If we are time limited, and we know that we only have enough time for N more hands of blackjack, should we change our strategy? If so, what is the strategy as a functon of N? What is our goal?

These questions, essentially, are what tournament blackjack is all about...

--Mayor

make a profit every single session-that is the goal no?
Posted by eyesfor21 on 13-Apr-2005 22:15:21 (#12768)

I just believe in always trying to make a profit every
single session. If you keep on thinking about the long term
it may take you to lossing sessions because you know there
are always more sessions and that we have the advantage. Sure
we do not like to play hours and may have to cut it short, or due to heat
etc.- but under normal circumstances.

No, that is definitely NOT the goal.
Posted by The Mayor on 13-Apr-2005 23:33:04 (#12769)

The goal is to play a solid winning game, and play it as well as possible. After that, whatever happens is not worth worrying about.

of course play a winning game,
Posted by eyesfor21 on 14-Apr-2005 00:17:19 (#12770)

perhaps we play different when we play for a living vs recreation.
This topic may be worth discussing.
I play for keeps Mayor,as I got pay the bills.

No.
Posted by Tom on 14-Apr-2005 11:02:11 (#12772)

Your goal is unrealistic to achieve in the real world of card counting. A realistic goal is bet with the count(expect losing sessions)and try to to double your bankroll.

I have to disagree with many who assume if anyone can beat some good software,they can beat a casino. Software is only a tool. The real test is applying bj skills on the actual battlefield which is a totally different experience than playing by yourself in front of some computer trying to mimic real world conditions.

death and blackjack
Posted by Canadienne on 14-Apr-2005 11:02:43 (#12773)

If I knew I had time for precisely N hands of blackjack, where N is less than say 3 million (roughly ten years' worth of full time play), I sure as hell wouldn't spend any of that time playing blackjack. There are so many more interesting and enjoyable things to do. Which, I guess, is why, though I'm a solid enough counter with a healthy net lifetime gain, and could
put together a healthy enough bankroll if I wanted, I haven't played a hand in a casino for 5 years.

This is something that isn't discussed nearly enough on BJ boards and magazines. Sure, you may make a decent living with advantage play, even these days -- if you train well, think on your feet, scout casinos, study the journals, stay disciplined, stay stoical.
But if you can do all that, you can probably make at least as good a living lots of other ways -- some of them quite pleasant ones.

The embarrassing truth is, counting is *boring*. More esoteric advantage play adds variety, but it's still basically boring once the novelty wears off. Casinos are pretty dire places to spend extended periods of time, if you're a civilised human being. Added to all that are the peculiar features of advantage play as a way of life: in most careers, success and a reputation for skill increase your expectation -- in casino advantage play, they tend to harm it; in most careers, steady effort produces steady rewards and the positive reinforcement that they bring -- in casino advantage play, the fluctuations are wild, the threat of discovery and exposure is ever present, and the emotional wear and tear is correspondingly higher.

My hunch is that, for all but a few professional advantage players,
the truly advantageous play -- choosing among all of life's possibilities --
would be to keep well away from casinos and find something more profitable
and rewarding. As Eliot says elsewhere, many people who call themselves
card-counters are really losing players who have some knowledge of counting, but not enough savvy or discipline to cut it. But I wonder also if many successful card-counters aren't "positive expectation compulsive gamblers" -- addicted to the risk and the melodrama, with their addiction reinforced by the
profits, which look rewarding enough until you think what else you could have done with the time and invested money.

Just my 2c.

-- Canadienne

You Hit on the Area I was Leading to...
Posted by Praying Mantis on 14-Apr-2005 16:26:57 (#12777)

"If I knew I had time for precisely N hands of blackjack, where N is less than say 3 million (roughly ten years' worth of full time play), I sure as hell wouldn't spend any of that time playing blackjack. There are so many more interesting and enjoyable things to do. Which, I guess, is why, though I'm a solid enough counter with a healthy net lifetime gain, and could".

The question is one that literally makes blackjack irrelavent in such a scenario, if we really think about it. Like you said, if we had only a certain amount of known time to live, I believe we ALL would be doing things differently. I dare say, that blackjack would come WAY down on the list of "things to do" in the final week of your life...I'm glad someone understood my post.

My hunch is
Posted by A. Merry Kin on 15-Apr-2005 14:58:41 (#12786)

you have very little lifetime experience as a real card counter.

"As Eliot says elsewhere, many people who call themselves
card-counters are really losing players who have some knowledge of counting, but not enough savvy or discipline to cut it."

My other hunch is the above is also applied to you.

You dont have to play millions and millions of hands to be a lifetime winner...

Disagree
Posted by The Mayor on 15-Apr-2005 18:59:39 (#12789)

I enjoyed the post, it certainly seemed to be from someone with a lot
of practical experience. I agree with almost all of his post. It is
excruciating to play in casinos day after day -- it is just not
boring, it is a truly lousy place to hang out. Just because there
is money to be made, does not mean it is worth making. Life is
more complicated than that.

I know people who have endless enthusiasm for casinos and their games,
but I know many advantage players (like myself) who play, but can't wait
to leave at the end of the session/day/whatever. My eyes are burning,
I'm exhausted, undernourished, and tired of rude/stupid ploppies.

Please consider a bit more openness to other's experiences. Making
money is not necessarily its own reward.

--Mayor

Very true
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 15-Apr-2005 21:37:46 (#12792)

Casinos can be miserable places, what with the smoke and degenerate gamblers, and having to get involved with dishonesty in order to be able to continue playing the game. I'd much rather spend a night playing bridge, where honesty (in terms of disclosure) is expected and almost universal. Only problem is nobody will pay me to play bridge.

There is a certain masochistic pleasure to playing. After a long night at the tables I have the same sensation as when returning from an all-night offshore fishing trip. Exhausted, filthy, cuts on my hands and maybe a fishhook stuck in me someplace, but satisfied and laden with something of value. Usually.

The only nice thing about it as a part-time job is you can pick it up and put it down at will, no inventory to maintain or responsibilities to attend to. If I don't feel like playing, I don't, and if I want to play the casinos are there 24 hours a day.

One thing I find helpful is improving the aesthetics of the trip. High quality food & drink when playing and a joint with a good house band can make the inevitable losing sessions almost bearable.

Casinos are wonderful.
Posted by A Merry Kin on 16-Apr-2005 11:40:19 (#12797)

I would not have it any other way.

I love the action,food,music,entertainment,atmosphere,beautiful women,etc. I'm not sure what you're disagreeing about,but by reading CD's opinion on casinos and blackjack, it seems he did not have what it takes to "cut it" and has a far off illusion of the long run.

I have seen these post pop up from time to time and many times the main issue for these so-called advantage players seems to be "too much smoke and noise." That's as funny as a guy who goes to school to become a professional car mechanic and thinks his hands wont get dirty and grimy when he takes on the occupation. I'm sure many newbies have read books and taught themself advantage play before they enter a casino and once they venture out to the real world they crack up or do not find conditions to be as enjoyable as they had preferred them to be(this includes huge losing sessions of smoke and fire,or perhaps they will unwittingly keep forcing themself to play year after year.

My point is anyone who plans on becoming a good card counter and make money at the game, should already know before they even start what it's like to be at casinos all the time and ask themself the question of "Do I really know what I'm getting into? Do I enjoy the casino atmosphere?"

If the answer is no,then they should quit before they even start.

Personally I enjoy what I do and dont have time to be bored. If I want to get bored and be in a smoke free atmosphere,I'll just play internet blackjack at my pad and stare at a monitor for hours chasing bonuses...talk about BORING!)

Excuse Me?
Posted by Praying Mantis on 14-Apr-2005 16:19:34 (#12776)

I believe my post was directed at the one prior that said "If I knew I would die NEXT Week"...

I was just trying to put things in perspective...had nothing at all to do with blackjack and it was NOT an original post, therefor I had no say-so where to place it. I was NOT trying to slam SSR, either...it was quite harmless, really. If I offended you or anyone, it wasn't my intent.

I'd load up on life insurance! ;-) *NM*
Posted by Dog Hand on 18-Apr-2005 17:49:37 (#12806)

Spoken like a true AP!!!
Posted by The Mayor on 18-Apr-2005 19:45:33 (#12807)

Life insurance is your betting you will die, and the insurance company betting you won't. What a brilliant idea! The ultimate AP play!

It may be +EV...
Posted by Dog Hand on 20-Apr-2005 18:22:05 (#12822)

... but I'm not anxious to cash in! ;-)

Dog Hand

This is way too esoteric for me.
Posted by stainless steel rat on 21-Apr-2005 16:46:54 (#12831)

You have a 5 and 6. Dealer has a 6 up. Your true count is +52 and there are no aces left. What is your EV?

It depends. If you drop dead at the table, I would say it is 0.0 as you are not going to see that 21 that is a guaranteed win. :) If you don't drop dead, then your EV is 1.0 as you can't lose.

So the idea of taking out life insurance, stepping in front of a truck, to make a +EV situation leaves me shaking my head. :)

My wife always says "APs are a strange lot." I'm not going to show her this thread. That would confirm it. :)

If one is "at room temperature" I'm not sure he has any EV at all, in fact. :)

Don't Worry About it!
Posted by Praying Mantis on 12-Apr-2005 15:39:40 (#12737)

Playing on 4 trips, hardly gives a true picture of your abilities.

I haven't had the best of years so far, I lost half my bank in the last three months. Suppose I started 3 months ago, I would be thinking that I am a losing player. Maybe even quit. That happens to many that start out with negative flux. They don't think they can do it and give up just when it may have turned around for them.

What I didn't tell you is that I started last year and actually won the bank that I have since lost half. Basically, I am still playing from winnings even though I show no progress in the last few months.

Even this period (time beginning from last year) is not enough to show your play, though it does give a pretty fair idea. Short term is that, and you can win and lose a bunch in the short term.

Keep positive, keep putting the money out when you are supposed to, make SURE you are playing a winning game and give it time. At the end of this year, come back and give us a report of your play and your bank. I would venture to say you will be ahead.

Good cards,

The Podium, there are a few casinos
Posted by Victoria on 10-Apr-2005 22:13:02 (#12719)

Well one that I am sure of.

Do not want to put any details on a public board but there is a casino in Vegas where my spread is limited to 6/1 and they imposed a max bet on me, but they comp me well. To further relate to the Mayor's podium, when these restrictions were placed upon me, they told me that they liked the fact that I attracted other players to the table.
Victoria

That is correct
Posted by SonOfBeve on 12-Apr-2005 17:46:18 (#12743)

Thats what we do where I work with some counters. The ones who we like, we let play. When they are ahead, other people think its the lucky table.

I can attest to that!...
Posted by zengrifter on 12-Apr-2005 21:16:34 (#12746)

...unfortunately, T-Hopper cannot! zg

Blackjack Insider Newsletter, #63
Posted by The Mayor on 13-Apr-2005 10:44:11 (#12755)

Available at www.bjinsider.com ...

Blackjack Insider Newsletter, April 2005, #63

A WORD FROM HENRY
We've got an exclusive interview with Kevin Blackwood, author of the book Play Blackjack Like The Pro's. Kevin has won one million dollars playing professionally over the past 20 years and he shares his secrets for success. You'll also enjoy reading Eliot Jacobson's article on the hurdles to become a winning blackjack player. Be sure to grade yourself on his "ten obstacles" quiz. Our insider The Suit, describes what steps the floor takes to determine if you are an Advantage Player. Dan Pronovost continues his series on advantage play craps with a tool that you can use to prove whether or not you can get the edge at craps. Scott Michael's visited the casinos in St. Louis and reports on the blackjack (and video poker) playing conditions there. Likewise, Alene Paone and Frank Scoblete provide an update on blackjack playing conditions in Atlantic City and feedback from one of their AC correspondents. Oh, oh, Barfarkel (a.k.a. LV Pro) is at it again! We've got his latest trip report to Sin City containing his adventures on (and off) the tables. If you play poker you need to learn how to "read the board." Check out Bill Burton's All About Poker column on this. Kenneth Smith takes a break from his usual tournament strategy articles and instead shares his experience chasing a profitable promotion at a table game called Mississippi Hold'Em (you are going to enjoy reading this story). And believe it or not LVBear offers a praise (rather than his usual rants), this time for the new management at Binion's. I've summarized the status of the World Series of Blackjack and Kenneth Smith has a summary of the upcoming blackjack tournaments.

Henry Tamburin

Editor

Send me Henry's email address...
Posted by zengrifter on 13-Apr-2005 12:50:24 (#12759)

...please! zg

Are there any movies dedicated towards card counting and/or card counters? *NM* *NM*
Posted by Anthony on 13-Apr-2005 21:21:19 (#12766)

The Hot Shoe - by David Layton *LINK*
Posted by Sonny on 14-Apr-2005 09:29:17 (#12771)

It's a documentary about card counting. It has interviews with some of the biggest names in the business. Check out the website.

-Sonny-

Thanks Sonny. *NM* *NM*
Posted by Anthony on 15-Apr-2005 11:34:20 (#12784)

Don't rent "Stacy's Nights" *NM*
Posted by Jaxel on 19-Apr-2005 10:12:16 (#12808)

Conditions in Shreveport
Posted by Praying Mantis on 14-Apr-2005 16:30:30 (#12778)

Are there any $10 DD games in Shreveport? Looks like conditions are pretty good but the minimums are $25 according CBJN.

Thanks,

If the table is a $25 minimum......
Posted by Anthony on 14-Apr-2005 20:59:08 (#12779)

Mr. Mantis,

From what I've been learning on this site and reading books on 21, how could this question be answered?

First of all we need to know what are the rules of the game, the spread you can realistically be allowed, and how deep of penetration that's dealt into the deck. Without knowing those figures, it would be hard to say if it's a winning or loosing game.

Anthony

P.S. Why does it have to be $25 minimum?

Take a trip to Vegas, with the differnece in minimum bet, you should be able to easilly pay for a package to Las Vegas.

A Simple Question, Wanting a Simple Answer
Posted by Praying Mantis on 15-Apr-2005 03:59:04 (#12781)

"From what I've been learning on this site and reading books on 21, how could this question be answered?

Anthony

P.S. Why does it have to be $25 minimum?

Take a trip to Vegas, with the differnece in minimum bet, you should be able to easilly pay for a package to Las Vegas."

It was a pretty SIMPLE question. Are there ANY $10 DD games in Shreveport? I don't want any other, nor do I give specifics on particular games on the net for obvious reasons.

Perhaps you must misunderstood the question. Or perhaps, maybe I should assume your response be taken in a lighter fashion?

Re: A simple question
Posted by Anthony on 15-Apr-2005 11:32:16 (#12783)

Mr. Mantis

Didn't want my response to come off the wrong way. After reading your QUESTION again, I realize what you're looking for. Can't tell you the FIRST thing about the games out there. I hope they are good and you can make some money. Good luck!!!

Anthony

MISTER Mantis?
Posted by Praying Mantis on 15-Apr-2005 18:53:03 (#12788)

"Mr. Mantis

Anthony"

Please...first, how do you know I AM a Mr.? Hmmm?

How about just "Praying"...;)

Thanks,

How we know you're a Mr.
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 15-Apr-2005 21:23:02 (#12791)

Because you're too argumentative to be a chick!

bad logic
Posted by stainless steel rat on 15-Apr-2005 22:14:25 (#12794)

You don't know +my+ wife.

Isle of Capri
Posted by Garo on 17-Apr-2005 14:12:16 (#12800)

I haven't been to Shreveport for almost a year, but there were $10 DD tables at Isle of Capri during the week.

You could always... *LINK*
Posted by Barfarkel on 15-Apr-2005 12:51:23 (#12785)

...ask the pit if you could play $10 minimum at an idle table which has a $25 posted sign. Just tell them you'll get the table action started for them - in their eyes you're basically acting as a shill. This used to work fairly often for me in Vegas, but I'm not sure if they're used to doing it in that venue. Worth a shot, though.

Cheers,

Barfarkel

I thought I had learned a LOT from your book...
Posted by Praying Mantis on 15-Apr-2005 18:50:53 (#12787)

Goes to show, I still have lots to learn.

I have friends who do the opposite, all the time. Go to pit and ask that a smaller table be opened for them at quarters. Never thought it might work the other way around.

IF there are any quarter tables empty, may try it? Thanks, bud.

BJZ ???'s.........
Posted by phantom007 on 14-Apr-2005 20:59:26 (#12780)

Reading the "Blackjack Zone" raised a few questions, which I hope the Mayor et.al. will answer.

1. Why was CC.com not listed as a "primary" website for BJ info?

2. Buying Coupons?

Certainly we get "coupons/vouchers" in the mail for free match bet, $100 Slot refund if you buy in for $100 and don't win within 30 min., free rooms, buffets, etc. Likewise, sometimes "Coupon Books" on check-in and/or getting New Players card. And, "LV Advisor" has always been a source, however posts over the last year or so indicated that LVA's coupon value is declining...due to "Stinginess" of Casino's...not LVA.

A. Anyhow, "BJZ" indicated "COMPANIES THAT SELL COUPONS"....are these Companies "available for public knowlege", or just a secret like "HC-Flashers"?

B. What is the price of said Coupons, in CC-Speak, the EV? In my simple mind, a "free match bet" coupon would be "WORTH" 52 Cents on-the-$ bet, providing I played it at only ++TC's.

C. What is the charge for same, by said "Companies"?

3. LVBear Interview....somewhat different from original post to the "BJZ" publication. LVB stressed both "Stop Loss & Stop Win" limits, primarily to minimize chance of "detection" in the latter, and cheating Dealer in the former. Conversely, "BJZ" omitted these and repeatedly stated, CORRECTLY of course, that losing and winning streaks/sessions have no effect on the "long-term expectation", or "the Journey" if you will.

Just curious as to why LVB's original interview was not included in its entirity?

4. Side-Bets...by recollection, most get worse, but some get better, as the # of decks increase...explain?

5. Not a question...your wife's chapter was EXCELLENT! Certainly, had read it before as a monthly PODIUM, but still, EXCELLENT!

6. Comment & Question....recent trips to Harrah-Shoe/Tunica has found signs posted at all entrances reading: "Promotional filming in progress...blah, blah, blah". Basically, "if you enter here, your picture may be on TV and/or in our flyers". Agree, that if our likenesses are to be taken and distributed, and especially WITHOUT PROOF, and WITH ADVERSE ALLEGATIONS ATTACHED, we should at least be warned, should we not???

BTW, if you get Horseshoe's monthly mailing, I am the guy with 2 drinks, because I usually play 2 hands, and shoving the GREEN tip to the waitress down the front of her Bra-thing...you know, that one-piece leopard skin thing that makes em' "ride high and big".

In honour of Ron McGarvey.....GRIN!

phantom007.

BJZ Answers...
Posted by The Mayor on 15-Apr-2005 10:06:18 (#12782)

Thanks for your questions!

> 1. Why was CC.com not listed as a "primary" website for BJ info?
It seemed a bit heady to list myself as a top reference. My site is mentioned in several prominent places in the book, that was enough for me.

>2. Buying Coupons?

> A. Anyhow, "BJZ" indicated "COMPANIES THAT SELL COUPONS"....are these Companies "available for public knowlege", or just a secret like "HC-Flashers"?

I was mainly thinking of Curtis when I wrote this (at the time, it was alive and well...). But, I also know several coupon hustlers who do quite well. They look for sources of coupons, and do what they need to do to get them (legally, mind you! I also know someone who conterfeited them, that's not so good).

> B. What is the price of said Coupons, in CC-Speak, the EV? In my simple mind, a "free match bet" coupon would be "WORTH" 52 Cents on-the-$ bet, providing I played it at only ++TC's.

> C. What is the charge for same, by said "Companies"?

I can only comment on this on a case-by-case basis. Coupons are almost never free, and their EV is always less than the listed value of the coupon. You would simply have to do the math when you see a coupon opportunity. This math might also involve GAS if there is a lot driving place to place to cash them. That is a factor these days!

>3. ... Just curious as to why LVB's original interview was not included in its entirity?

LVBear indicated he wanted to make some changes. Essentially, anything he wanted to change was fine with me. He gave it to me to publish for free, and in my mind it is one of the top features of the book. Honestly, LVBear is one of the most treasured people out there in this community, and I will do whatever works for him to have his voice heard more.

> 4. Side-Bets...by recollection, most get worse, but some get better, as the # of decks increase...explain?

I don't quite know what you mean here. The side bets I play are actually slightly better for 6 deck games, but I don't have the patience for them. For example, Lucky Ladies used to offer the same payouts (4-9-19) on 2 deck and 6 deck, these odds were much stronger in the 6 deck game. Now they are 4-10-25 on the 2 deck game which makes these comparable games. At any rate, it is hard to discuss something when I don't quite know what we are discussing 8-) Moreover, as you might imagine, this is something I don't really want to talk about.

> 5. Not a question...your wife's chapter was EXCELLENT! Certainly, had read it before as a monthly PODIUM, but still, EXCELLENT!

I'll let her know. She always likes it when she gets this kind of feedback.

>6. Comment & Question....recent trips to Harrah-Shoe/Tunica has found signs posted at all entrances reading: "Promotional filming in progress...blah, blah, blah". Basically, "if you enter here, your picture may be on TV and/or in our flyers". Agree, that if our likenesses are to be taken and distributed, and especially WITHOUT PROOF, and WITH ADVERSE ALLEGATIONS ATTACHED, we should at least be warned, should we not???

Don't know. But if they use your image directly (and you are not just part of the background) then they are supposed to get your written permission, otherwise they have to pixelate your face.

> In honour of Ron McGarvey.....GRIN!

Yes indeed. We miss him deeply. Thanks.

Happy tax day!

--Mayor

Happy Tax Day Indeed!.......
Posted by phantom007 on 15-Apr-2005 22:10:38 (#12793)

CPA today informed me that I owe $450. to the State of Missouri, and had OVERPAID Federal so much that I have already covered ETP's (Est. Tax Payments) for the first 2 Quarters of 2005!

Further, in that I did not possess this knowlege until today, I have likely been O-W/H (from my regular job), thus 3rd Quarter is "Toast" as well.

While not exactly +EV, never-the-less, looks like $25 min. tables are back in my immediate future!

Now, please do not get me wrong, playing red is fun and relaxing, but you know, those ploppies always ruin "the flow of the cards"!

Though in my experience, just as many, if not more, IDIOTS playing the Green/Black mins., as there are the Reds. Besides, the Red-Ploppies are usually fun to be with....College kids, Minimum Wager's, College Lecturers, etc. The Green/Black crowd tends to take their MISPLAYS much more seriously!

GRIN!

phantom007.

new card player mag-great article on Ungar
Posted by eyesfor21 on 15-Apr-2005 19:38:20 (#12790)

worlds best blackjack/poker player..
wow
pick it up.

A great movie...
Posted by The Mayor on 16-Apr-2005 10:40:03 (#12796)

If you ever get a chance, see the movie "Stuey" -- a biographical account of this remarkable man. 3x WSOP champion, best Gin Rummy player EVER, and all around derelict drug addict New Jersey punk.

--Mayor

Sorry, one more time, Advantage
Posted by John on 16-Apr-2005 03:49:25 (#12795)

I should know this but I've forgotten. How is % advantage calculated ?

If you kept accurate records of things like # of hands played, units won, etc etc... how do you calculate your advantage ?

Thanks

Applicable more in Theory than in Practice...
Posted by phantom007 on 16-Apr-2005 22:29:01 (#12798)

Dear John:

My first "Dear John" letter. Sorry, old joke. John, are you asking:

A. WHAT IS THE +EV OF A CERTAIN GAME/SET OF RULES?

For example only, 6D, DAS, DH17, RSA, Spl. to 4, etc.? If "YES", then many books (Wong's "Prof. BJ") have detailed sections on how to calc. your starting EV. Similar info. can likely be found 0n-line, just do not have the time to check for you.

Basically, you start with the EV of a standard game, then add and subtract the various %'s that the rules offer, for the particular game under scrutiny.

Once accomplished, realize that these calculations usually presume about 75% PENETRATION! EV Exponentially declines below about 65-70%, but the good news, goes up above this range!

Usually, LV Strip DD is used as the Basis....looks like in the near-future, 6:5 SD will be the BASIS! "OK, I have a 2.32% DISADVANTAGE, but in this game BJ pays 3:2. OK, I have a 0.42% DISADVANTAGE...Got to Play it! Best game in town!"

B. WHAT IS THE +EV OF THE CC'ing SYSTEM I AM USING?

If you are using a "Common System", buy a book or two as regarding same, and find your answer. AND buy Casino Verite' Software, plug in your #'s, and GET ALL OF YOUR ANSWERS in about 16 seconds!

C. WHAT IS MY PERSONAL ADVANTAGE?

Due to that BASTARD called VARIANCE, very difficult to answer in the "short-to-medium" term. An EXPERT can have a losing year, while a PLOPPY can retire early!

GOT TO LOVE THIS GAME!

Do you count travel expenses against Profits (or add to losses, if applicable)? Do you count Free RFB as a Win? Cash coupons? ETC.?

Hope this helps answer your question(s). If not, please "repost" with questions that are more "specific".

phantom007.

Camoflage for small stakes!
Posted by Anthony on 17-Apr-2005 12:03:24 (#12799)

First, I would like to point out that the information in this post was originally obtained from the book titled Blackbelt in Blackjack, by Arnold Snyder. This post is a combination of real life experiences and the advice given from from Mr. Snyders book.

When playing in a house that offers a beatable single or double deck game that has a low-minimum, it's not the type of casino you see on TV. These casinos do not attract the most savory of people. In addition to the second hand smoke (I smoke and it's bad), drunks that are standard equipment, and there's nothing crystal in the casino other than what's going up peoples nose. Your camouflage starts before you even walk into the casino.

BEFORE going into the casino I would dress up like a construction worker, cook, garbage man, or a person just above the poverty level (Thrift stores are perfect for uniforms). I would take 200 worth of twenty dollar bills and buy in with 40. I'll keep the 100's in my wallet. When the dealer announces change 40 the pit boss is too busy doing anything else, but to say hi to me.

When I'm loosing, let's say I'm down to 10 dollars and the TC is plus 4. Money plays 20, remember the minimum 3-5 that's an avg spread of 1-6. If I win I put the twenty back in my pocket. If I loose I pull out another 40 and buy in again. Like it is said in the book, the pit bosses love to see you digging in your pockets for more money. To furthur camouflage my play, I would order a coke with a lime, make it look like a run and coke.

Finally, when everything comes together and you're getting a run. I love it when I then go to two hands of 10 - 20 (that's on DD) and really start playing. In a short time it can flucuate to a big win, say 100 - 400. Cash out and leave or get busted. It looks like I'm chasing my bets, and I am, just it's an opprotune time to do so. You just have to know when to leave.

It's silly the things we do. I'm not a big player by any means and work for a living. However, the high we get from gambling (because my bankroll says I'm gambling) is fun. I bet if we looked at most of the people on this site we're a character of sorts. Have fun everyone.

Anthony

NO COKE.....PEPSI COLA......
Posted by phantom007 on 17-Apr-2005 22:20:06 (#12802)

Generally EXCELLENT advice as regarding "Low-Roller BS"...by BS I do mean Basic Strategy.

Might suggest caution on one issue...."Coke with Lime". Per Cellini, many stores serve their Non-Alcoholic drinks in glasses/cups that are similar but yet DIFFERENT from those with the "real stuff". Cups may be more prevalent than glasses in Low-Roller stores.

I have no personal data, since, except for the obvious Coffee to either "wake-up" and/or "sober-up", I have little-to-no experience with Non-Alcoholic drinks in a Casino. GRIN! BURP!

Besides, since as part of my cover, I tend to tip $1.00 per drink, it makes me feel better inside (much better in fact), to spend my $1.00 tip on something IMPORTED that would cost me $3.00-$5.00 back home, than to spend same $1.00 on something that costs the Casino $0.17 or less, such as coffee or soft drink or (I still cannot grasp the concept, though I do appreciate the genius) BOTTLED H2O! I bet ZG invented and patented Bottled H20!

Wandering momentarily, the same crowd who drinks Bottled H20 usually also takes between 8-14 nutritional supplements per day, at a -EV to their personal B/R of at least 1-2 Green! GUARANTEED to supply the 437 Trace Elements missing in your diet! Last time I checked the Periodic Table...most anything above #103, and several at or below, were RADIOACTIVE!

Anyhow, BACK-ON-POINT, the old trick was to get a "Clear-liquor drink", such as Vodka and water, take a few small sips, get up to go to the Bathroom, knock over both your chips and your chair in the process, stagger to the "john", pour out 1/2 of your drink, fill back up with TAP WATER (containing those #300+ missing trace elements), stagger back to the table, knock over chips again, and if the count tanks, repeat process, preferably on the same drink!

Especially with "MARKED CUPS/GLASSES", I suspect that most stores are now on to this camo!:

---Survelliance (to PC): "We have an Expert CC, Seat #2, SD-4".

---PC: "No Way! We noticed that he was spreading $3 to as much as $12, but he is also nearly chugging his Vodka Rocks!"

---Survll.: "Yes, but his Plastic Cup has stars on it, NOT diamonds. And we had Plain-clothes follow him during his last 2 bathroom trips....he is cutting his drink with BOTTLED H20, and POPPING Nutritional Supplements!"

---PC: "But he seems so nice. Are you sure?"

---Survll.: "Yes, the Geiger Counters implanted into his Green Chips are going off the scale! Either 86 him within the next 15 minutes, or else, stand at least 87 feet away. Otherwise, you will get cancer!"

phantom007.

Hey I thought I invented that!
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 17-Apr-2005 22:44:45 (#12803)

"Anyhow, BACK-ON-POINT, the old trick was to get a "Clear-liquor drink", such as Vodka and water, take a few small sips, get up to go to the Bathroom, knock over both your chips and your chair in the process, stagger to the "john", pour out 1/2 of your drink, fill back up with TAP WATER (containing those #300+ missing trace elements), stagger back to the table, knock over chips again, and if the count tanks, repeat process, preferably on the same drink!"

Hey you're not supposed to be giving away AP (Alcoholic Person) trade secrets here!

Alcohol is pretty good cover and so is interacting with others. Almost every time I've been tapped out of a game I've been heads-up and with no one to talk to. Oh correction- I've never been actually tapped out because I always see them coming and make eye contact as they approach, none of this head down, concentrating on the cards look.

If you bathroom-Wong, don't be afraid to play a couple of hands at the end of the shoe if you get back early. It's only a couple of minimum bets and you only have a 2-3% disadvantage at worst, well worth it for the cover in my opinion.

As I've been told, this kind of camo is only effective at low stakes, once you get up into black chip everything changes and you need entirely different classes of cover and even they will only work for a while.

effect of spreading hands
Posted by Sputnik on 17-Apr-2005 17:35:43 (#12801)

currently I play with a spread of $25-$200. If I went to 4 hands of $5-$50 with the same counts what would be the effect on my hourly earnings, st dev, heat? I was thinking hourly would be mostly unchanged. St Dev cut in half and heat possibly increase?

Card-eating
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 17-Apr-2005 22:54:22 (#12804)

You're better off playing 1 hand at negative EV counts. That way the dealer and other players at the table will be eating them up with you. Spreading to multiple hands definitely helps your SD but there's a quickly diminishing return on it. Remember there's only one dealer hand and if he catches a face blackjack or pulls a 21 out of his ass on a high count 4 hands are only incrementally better than one. Most players increase their total bet when playing multiple hands giving you a higher win rate at the same risk of ruin. This is the best part about multiple hands.

one other point
Posted by stainless steel rat on 18-Apr-2005 10:49:33 (#12805)

If you play SD games, and they are dealt to RO6 or RO7, then playing more than one hand can improve your EV. For example, heads-up with RO6, will see 10 hands dealt, five rounds to you and the dealer, for 26 cards total or 50% penetration. Spreading to two hands makes 4 rounds to 3 players (counting the dealer) which is almost 6 more cards dealt. Spreading to 3 hands doesn't improve things further as you get 3 rounds to 4 players counting the dealer, which is no better than 2 hands.

The extra penetration at SD can make a significant difference since it increases by more than 10%.

Of course, normally you use 2 X .72*bet, which means you bet slightly less than 1.5X the money, but eat 1.5X the cards, which is slightly worse, but the extra penetration offsets that nicely and then some.

Need help remembering the key-card...
Posted by zengrifter on 19-Apr-2005 10:57:59 (#12809)

...when tracking Aces. It really f**ks with my mind, like deploying both hemispheres simultaneously. Can anyone recommend a mneumonic-method or must I research one on my own? zg

I have the same problem
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Apr-2005 12:27:45 (#12810)

I sit their repeating the key card in my mind over and over... and still forget it. Much worse for me when doing this keying multiple aces. I feel your pain!

I am better remembering numbers. So, one trick I use is to simply number the cards (1-52) in an obvious way, then simply recall the number. Ah, key card is 33, that's the 8 of hearts. Find what you are good at remembering, and use that.

Bridge Order
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 19-Apr-2005 13:02:21 (#12812)

When ace sequencing I imagine the ranks of cards lines up left to right, spades on top clubs on bottom, like beads on an abacus and I "illuminate" each bead as I record a keycard. The one thing I can't do yet is play back a set of keycards on the same shoe that I am recording them, but I'm working on it.

Another way to do it is to simply write them down. Writing them down outright will draw suspicion but you can encode them; if you are converting cards to numbers like "33" you can write them on a piece of paper that the casino will be pleased to see you using.

Haha - that, or...
Posted by zengrifter on 19-Apr-2005 13:50:40 (#12815)

"I sit their repeating the key card in my mind over and over... and still forget it."
--------------

Haha - that, or I suddenly forget the count! zg

Harry Lorayne, Dominic O'Brien and Kevin Trudeau *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Norm Wattenberger on 19-Apr-2005 15:55:57 (#12817)

CVShuffle drills you in memorization of card nicknames. It also optionally prints the nicknames on the cards as you play to force the names into your mind. From the CVShuffle manual:

<h2>CVShuffle NickNames </h2>
Nicknames are a memory device used to remember sequences - in this case sequences of cards. In Blackjack, they can be used to remember key cards to predict an upcoming Ace. Support for nicknames is discussed here.
Nicknames Table
To enter the nicknames, hit the Nicknames button on the CVShuffle main screen (the screen displayed when you first enter CVShuffle.) A table will be displayed with 52 names. To change a name, select a current name and type over it. A default set of names is included. You can find other sets of names in books on improving memory. Memory experts with such name sets include Harry Lorayne, Dominic O'Brien and Kevin Trudeau. (Thanks to Rick Blaine for this.)
Branding Cards
<ul><li>Brand cards with names - To help solidify the names in your mind, select the Brand Cards option. This will place the card nickname on each card as it is dealt. If you practice BJ with this option on, you will become used to the nicknames.
<li>No numbers on cards - This option removes the numbers from the cards and will force you to rely more heavily on the card nicknames.
<li>Blank cards - When this option is turned on, the cards are blank except for the nicknames. Playing in this manner is quite difficult and will force you to use the names.
</ul>
Nickname Testing
To test your use of nicknames, try the Nicknames Drill in the CVShuffle Drills.

Book
Posted by Gibbs1 on 19-Apr-2005 22:25:25 (#12820)

I've been using the "Link method." A fantastic book is "The Memory Book" by Harry Lorayne and Jerry Lucas. It should be in the Psychology/Self-Help section of your local Border's. The book has a section on memorizing playing cards.

Basically, you give a name to each card. For example, Ace of Spades is "suit", 8 of Hearts is "hoof", and 5 of Hearts is "hail." Suppose these three cards come out in that order. You picture a suit with something in your environment: picture the dealer wearing a suit on his head. Then make a picture using a suit and hoof: picture a horse with a suit on. Then make a picture using hoof and hail: picture horses raining down.

So to recall, look at the dealer, and you remember the word "suit." Then keep going down the list...

The trick is to make the pictures in your mind as silly as possible. The cards are no longer abstract ideas, but vivid images. Using this method, you could memorize an entire deck quickly. I've been practicing for a few weeks, and it definitely works!

Book signing - Barfy goes mainstream *LINK*
Posted by Barfarkel on 19-Apr-2005 12:52:02 (#12811)

I got the news a few weeks ago - Dutton's book store has scheduled for me to sign copies of my book You've Got Heat - The Vegas Card Counting Adventures of LV Pro at the Los Angeles Times Festival of Books.

This annual book fair is always held during an April weekend on the UCLA campus. It's the biggest book festival that Los Angeles has to offer, and one of the premier literary events in the country. Last year, 130,000 book fans showed up over that Saturday and Sunday. This year, authors like Ray Bradbury, Herbert Gold, Mary Higgins Clark and Walter Mosley will be signing their latest books. Michael Konik will be there. Also there will be several celeb-type authors like Carrie Fisher, Jason Alexander, Jeff Bridges, Arianna Huffington, Carl Reiner and Ron Kovic, all signing copies of their newest books.

And now joining them for the first time is some irreverent nut named Barfarkel :-)

So now America's literary elite will be distressed to find me in their midst, happily signing my book with a disguise on (hey - can't be too careful - casino spies are everywhere). The blurb on the www.Youvegotheat.com website has the details:

MEET BARFARKEL

Barfarkel will be signing copies of his book You've Got Heat - The Vegas Card Counting Adventures of LV Pro at the Los Angeles Times Festival of Books, held annually on the UCLA campus on Saturday April 23, 2005. He'll be signing between 1:pm and 2:pm on behalf of Dutton's Bookstore at their main booth #334 - across from Royce Hall. If you're in Los Angeles, and plan to go to the Festival of Books that day, feel free to drop by to meet and chat with Barfarkel, who will be glad to sign your copy or just converse.

It's ironic that L.A. Times staff writer Richard Fausset used me and my book as the lead four paragraphs of his article (below) about last year's L.A. Times Festival of Books.

April 26, 2004

E-mail story

LINK: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-books26apr26,1,1211817.story

LOS ANGELES - April 26, 2004

Authors Share Views With Fans on Final Day of Book Festival

Attendance reaches an estimated 130,000 for event that brings readers and writers together.

By Richard Fausset, Times Staff Writer

The self-described Las Vegas card-counter who calls himself Barfarkel was sitting in the shade at the Los Angeles Times Festival of Books on Sunday, munching on a sandwich as he waited for novelist Elmore Leonard to take the stage for a conversation about his craft.

Barfarkel - who for obvious reasons refused to give his real name - said he admired Leonard's work. But he had also come to soak up some of the details of the publishing game, seeing as how his memoir of life at the tables, "You've Got Heat," is due out soon from a little publisher in Alabama.

This last detail was too much for a stranger, who quipped that Barfarkel seemed more like an Elmore Leonard character than an Elmore Leonard fan.

The man took a thoughtful chew of sandwich. "Thank you," he said.

Sunday was the second day of the annual Festival of Books, where - amid balloons and barbecue and rock singers - the real draw was the promise that the barriers between reader and author would temporarily dissolve.

The authors argued, compared notes, signed autographs and talked about their politics and passions. Approximately 60,000 readers came to the UCLA campus to join them, bringing the two-day attendance for the ninth-annual event to an estimated 130,000.

The fair offered household names, up-and-coming niche writers, the gravest of foreign policy matters and the lightest of children's confections. Attendees learned about rotisserie chickens and African American politics. They studied the ways to construct biographies and crime fiction. And they sang along with Barney, the purple dinosaur.

Personal politics - and the novelist's tools in mapping them - were the subject of a conversation with Elmore Leonard.

The author of "Get Shorty" said his characters must be believable. And they must be good conversationalists.

"If the character can't talk," Leonard said, "then he'll be demoted" in the plot.

Sometimes that demotion can be lethal: the terminally dull, Leonard said, often have a better chance of being killed early on.

Later in the afternoon, radio talk show host Laura Schlessinger delivered a feisty talk loosely based on her new book, "The Proper Care and Feeding of Husbands." Some fans waited over an hour in the heat to get a good seat.

With her trademark bluntness, Schlessinger said she found many wives didn't realize "how insensitive and hurtful" they were being to their husbands. The conversation also drifted to some of Schlessinger's other themes, including her concern that American mothers are chasing money and careers at the expense of a rewarding motherhood.

"When we tell people the essence of something as beautiful as child-rearing or marriage are one of a zillion options and they're all equivalent ... I think that's a travesty," she said.

Authors and booksellers also seemed to relish seeing their readers in the flesh. Bob Holzapfel, 57, of the Tennessee-based Book Publishing Co., was busy selling books like "Becoming Vegan" and "Wheat Grass: Nature's Finest Medicine," at the tent he shared with another publisher.

"We usually deal with distributors and stores," he said. "We hardly ever get a chance to hang out with the people who buy the books."

A few hours later, author Glen David Gold was signing copies of his well-received novel "Carter Beats the Devil" at the Hi De Ho Comics tent. Gold said he wrote four really bad novels before he found success with "Carter," and he said he always promised himself he'd try not to act like "a jerk" when he became an attraction at book fairs.

A few minutes later, he had a chance to keep his word when a woman mistook him for fellow novelist Michael Chabon.

Gold sweet-talked his way out of an awkward situation. The woman ended up buying his book and asking him to sign it.

If you want other stories on this topic, search the Archives at latimes.com/archives.

Article licensing and reprint options

Anyone in Vegas want to go with? *nm* *NM*
Posted by Anthony on 19-Apr-2005 13:31:25 (#12813)

Barfy In The News *PIC*
Posted by zengrifter on 19-Apr-2005 13:48:41 (#12814)

Las Vegas Tribune | April 20, 2005

'You've Got Heat' Author to Sign Books

by Nicholas "Little Nicky" Bernstein

Last December this paper ran a book review of "You've Got Heat - The
Vegas Card Counting Adventures of LV Pro" by 'Barfarkel' - the pseudonym of
a skilled blackjack player who taught himself to count cards and chronicled
his escapades in this personal narrative.

In only four months, the book has sold nearly three-fourths of its
initial printing run. Barfarkel has already done a book signing at the
Gambler's Book Store and four radio interviews to promote "You've Got Heat."
Now it turns out that 'Barfy' will be signing books at a huge mainstream
event - The Los Angeles Times Festival of Books. This annual book fair, held
on a weekend every April, drew 130,000 literature fans to the UCLA campus
last year, and is the biggest book festival that Los Angeles has to offer
and one of the country's premier literary events.

If you are in L.A., and plan to attend the Los Angeles Times Festival
of Books on Saturday, April 23, 2005, here's your chance to meet and chat
with Barfarkel. Just find your way to the main Dutton's book store booth
#334, across from Royce Hall, between 1:pm and 2:pm and Barfy will be glad
to sign your copy of "You've Got Heat," or just chat with you about
advantage gambling and blackjack, or anything at all.

It's truly ironic that L.A. Times staff writer Richard Faussett used
Barfarkel and his book as the lead four paragraphs of his article about last
year's L.A. Times Book Festival. In that Times article, dated April 28, 2004
in the California section, Faussett described Barfarkel as an Elmore Leonard
fan who was trying to soak up some of the details of the publishing game
seeing as how his memoir of life at the tables, "You've Got Heat," was due
out soon from a small publisher in Alabama. Another book festival attendee
remarked that Barfarkel seemed more like an Elmore Leonard character than a
fan, to which Barfy replied, "Thank you."

Now, just one year later, Barfarkel will take his place alongside many
famous authors like Mary Higgins Clark, Ray Bradbury, Walter Mosley and
Herbert Gold in signing copies of his book on behalf of Dutton's book store.

Barfarkel plans to be in disguise to protect his identity and thwart
attempts by casino spies to obtain his photograph.

To read more about this premier literary event, you can check out the
website at: www.latimes.com/extras/festivalofbooks

In Las Vegas, "You've Got Heat - The Vegas Card Counting Adventures of
LV Pro" can be purchased at the Gambler's Book Store - 630 South 11th St; at
the Gambler's General Store - 800 South Main Street; at Pi Yee Press - 4855
West Nevso Drive; and at Huntington Press - 3687 South Procyon Ave.

In Los Angeles, You've Got Heat can be found at Book Soup - 8818
Sunset Blvd and at Dutton's Books - 11975 San Vicente Blvd.

------------
Nicholas 'Little Nicky' Bernstein is the new occasional Las Vegas Tribune 'Special Gaming Correspondent.' He may be reached at Nickbern@aol.com

Cool! Save me a dozen copies, ok? *LINK*
Posted by Barfarkel on 19-Apr-2005 14:01:01 (#12816)

And thanks for posting the new LV Tribune article.

Cheers,

Barfarkel

What Kind of Disguise Will You Wear? *NM*
Posted by SammyBoy on 19-Apr-2005 18:16:27 (#12818)

It wouldn't be a disguise then would it. *NM* *NM*
Posted by Anthony on 19-Apr-2005 19:52:47 (#12819)

If I could only pick one what would it be?
Posted by Anthony on 20-Apr-2005 18:31:04 (#12823)

Hello,

I'm ready to buy a computer program that will help make me an expert in card counting and want to do it right. What program should I buy, how much does it appx cost, and hows it work?

Thank you
Anthony

P.S. I want to master single and double deck.

No doubt ...
Posted by The Mayor on 20-Apr-2005 19:33:10 (#12824)

Buy Casino Verite!

http://www.qfit.com/

--Mayor

[edited 04/21 -- typo "But" replaced with "Buy"]

While we are on the subject...
Posted by Garo on 20-Apr-2005 21:42:33 (#12825)

What is the difference between CVCX and CVData? From the product discriptions they sound very similar.

some answers until Norm chimes in
Posted by stainless steel rat on 21-Apr-2005 10:01:54 (#12828)

CVCX is what I use. It lets you choose the rules of the game, and it sims a bunch of rounds (min is 50 million I think) to give you a good idea of the "long term results" for that game. Then you can twiddle with your betting unit and ramp, or let CVCX optimize the bet ramp for your bankroll, to see the actual hourly win rate.

CVData is more complex, and will actually run a lot of sims and compute optimal BS departure indices, which CVCX won't do. Of course very few are going to memorize multiple sets of playing indices for different game rules, decks, penetration, etc.

I use CVCX all the time, as it provides exactly the information I need to choose between different games where there is a difference in rules, or in penetration, or whatever. And it lets me see what effect my own betting ramp will have on my EV as opposed to the optimal. I believe that CVData lets you do more complex betting strategies (cover betting) where CVCX does not...

You can download trial versions to see more about the differences. I have not personlly played with CVData (yet). I've run CVCX a bunch.

I'm still partial to...
Posted by zengrifter on 21-Apr-2005 03:56:56 (#12826)

... NeUltra. Sort of like a wieght trainor partial to free-wieghts. zg

The long and short of BJ software
Posted by bfbagain on 21-Apr-2005 11:16:51 (#12829)

The long: the CV Suite of software. All of it. $300 or so.
The short: CVCX. Once you use this most impressive piece of software, you'll never (or should never, unless you're tracking) play a poor penetration game again.

cheers
bfb

shufflemaster shuffle machines
Posted by joe on 21-Apr-2005 09:49:27 (#12827)

I have been playing blackjack full time in atlantic city for over a year now. I have had better success than I enan imagined, However, in checking my very detailed records, I have noticed that I have losing numbers at both casinos (there are only two) that use shuffle machines (borgata and trump marina) These AREN'T continuous shuffle machines but rather shuffle at the end of a shoe, saving the down time. The rules are very favorable at both places with 70-75 penatioan which is about standard for ac, but yet unlike other casinos with similar rules, I have a losing record at both places. I'm starting to think maybe the shuffle by these machines isn't completely random. any comments??

No shuffle is
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 21-Apr-2005 13:13:17 (#12830)

"Randomness" as a mathematical concept is probably not reflected in any casino shuffle. If the shuffle sufficiantly far removed from random to create an effect in the game, this is heavily exploitable advantage.

Unless you can SHUFFLE TRACK.....
Posted by phantom007 on 21-Apr-2005 22:39:14 (#12834)

I would expect that your long-term EV should be/eventually will become MUCH higher on ASM's (Automated Shuffle Machines) than on the Standard Hand-shuffles, which seem to take 5 min. when you are losing, 8 when even, and about 30 when ahead. Quite simply, MORE HANDS PER HOUR/SESSION!

The fact that your current personal #'s do not coincide with this is, as A.M., pointed out above, simply a mathematical glitch, i.e., that BITCH called VARIANCE!

Now, once you learn ST'ing AND can find a TS (Trackable Shuffle), then you would always chose a "HAND_JOB" when the choice is present.

Want to learn ST'ing???

Here is what I did:

---1. Bought George C.'s book, read it twice, and got confused.
---2. Bought Snyder's book, read it once, and got confused.
---3. Bought CV "Package", including CV Shuffle, which has ST'ing training/drills included...loaded it onto my computer, and "keep meaning to check it out".
---4. Bought and read Barafakel's "You've Got Heat"....in a couple of paragraphs, he makes it so simple, that even I can do it!!! Now, with this knowlege, I plan to attend to #'s 1,2,3 above again, and this time, I suspect I will get it!

Hope this helps.

Phantom007.

shufflemaster
Posted by joeyboi on 22-Apr-2005 11:45:02 (#12835)

one might expect that. But, so, far, just the oppisite has happened.

SImply not enough trials
Posted by The Mayor on 22-Apr-2005 13:06:10 (#12836)

Once you play 1000 hours at the machine you may have something to report, but I think the results you are claiming are anecdotal at best, and hardly representative of a long term bias.

The truth is these machines are not random, because they use an algorithm to shuffle. But that algorithm is not based on reading the values of the cards, or knowing the composition of the decks to be shuffled. It is simply a positional swap -- like this:

    

for (i = 0; i <  number_of_cards; i++) {    

  pick a random index j at random among 1, 2, ... number_of_cards - i   

  expel card j into the finished deck  

}

Thanks Double-o-Seven *LINK*
Posted by Barfarkel on 23-Apr-2005 00:28:16 (#12839)

Thanks for the kudos re: my book. I should point out that those few simple paragraphs in You've Got Heat refer to simple cut-off tracking, not the more sophisticated and harder to master skill of full-on shuffle tracking.

I tried to make the concepts in the book understandable to a layman. If I can master shuffle tracking by the time the sequel is (hopefully) published, I'll write about that subject in a simple and understandable way as well.

Now all I have to do is become proficient at shuffle tracking. It's a tough job, but hey...I'll do anything for my readers. In my current trip report, one of the parts that was not copied here by Zengrifter, I reluctantly consent to have sex with a hooker, just to spice up the narrative.

I hope you guys appreciate the sacrifices I make just to keep the readers entertained :-)

Cheers,

Barfarkel

How much did she pay you?...
Posted by phantom007 on 23-Apr-2005 09:25:56 (#12840)

And do you mean to indicate that "Cut-off Tracking" is different than "Shuffle-Tracking"? Damn, something else to learn!

Suggested title for sequel: "YOU'RE IN HEAT!...More adventures of a Card Counter turned Gigilo".

EXERT: "Played an hour at my hotel's 65% pen. DD'er. Up $345. plus a pack of smokes and a buffet comp. Then turned a trick for Velma, a 74 y.o. tourist from Baltimore. She paid my usual fee of $150., plus a $20. tip. Sold her my Buffet comp for $10. Now up $525. for the trip! Went to Walgreen's for batteries, subtract $15. Wonder how I am going to plug these #'s into the Risk Analyzer? Wonder if I can get my Host to start comping me batteries?'

"Asked Grift to join me on a Team venture...said he would play CSM's with lousy rules before he would start doing 74 y.o.'s...."

GRIN.

phantom007.

Yes, he was very reluctant! -PS
Posted by zengrifter on 23-Apr-2005 11:17:00 (#12841)

PS - Ace prediction (in 1-2D) is easier than STing, even CTing! zg

Question
Posted by Gibbs1 on 25-Apr-2005 02:11:21 (#12843)

On a scale from 1 to 10, how rigorous is your selection process of SD/DD tables to do ace prediction at?

Well, as Barfy would say "LIVE and LEARN" *NM*
Posted by phantom007 on 26-Apr-2005 00:38:49 (#12851)

Excerpt from Barfarkel's February TR
Posted by zengrifter on 21-Apr-2005 16:58:56 (#12832)

POSTED BY PERMISSION OF HENRY TAMBURIN,
PUBLISHER OF THE BLACKJACK INSIDER NEWSLETTER

--Excerpt from Barfarkel's February TR, BJI Issue #63
http://bjinsider.com/newsletter_63.shtml

....
Heading for the Western downtown, I hooked up with The Grifter. After a short session during which I recouped the $50 I had lost earlier at the Plaza, we headed over to another casino where Grif had spotted a dealer who flashes his hole card.

Since The Grifter knew the hole card strategy from Grosjean's Beyond Counting, I'd angle each hand so he could see them and then he'd signal me the play, while I'd just flat bet quarters at first to see how it went. According to Grosjean, if you use an optimized hole-card playing strategy without any overtly revealing plays, like hitting hard seventeen or higher, or splitting tens against a dealer ten upcard, the edge is 8%-10%, assuming you can see the hole card every time. However, Grif was seeing the hole card maybe two out of three times, so we figured our edge to have been more like 6%-7%. Grif felt that my initial bet-sizing was way too conservative, but hey, I'm risk-averse by nature. Initially I wanted to see how we would do before raising my bets, and I figured I'd have the best of both worlds - high EV and low variance.

At one point I was surprised to see the "split" sign when I wanted to stand on a pair of tens vs. a dealer five. Now understand that in my whole long blackjack career, I had never ever split tens. That is, until today. I had my hand already tucked, but Grif's agitated body language was adamant that I split them, so I pulled them out and put out another greenie. I got a seven on the first one and a ten on the second. I wanted to stand with my 17 and 20, but again got the "split" signal from Grif plus some subdued verbal urging, challenging me that since I'd already "screwed up the cards" I should continue with my "folly." The other players were starting to get noticeably agitated as well. I split once more and got paint on both the second and third hands. Now content, I waved off the dealer, but again Grif was insistent that I re-split to a fourth hand. Because I had already given the stand signal the dealer indicated that I could not split again, but Grif verbally challenged me to re-split again as the pit critter approached and told the dealer that I was allowed to split up to four times. Sighing, I did so and wound up with a seventeen on the first hand, and three twenties. The dealer flipped the anticipated ten card in the hole and slapped the table with a seven for a sweet bust to the jubilation of the other players, who had been following this little drama and, getting caught up in it, had even started cheering me on. Even though I wound up losing $270 at this hour-long session before our flashing dealer rotated back to the roulette table, this was a real first for me - not just splitting tens, but re-splitting them to four hands. Hey, this is fun!

When our flashing dealer ended his stint the table was still filled to capacity, but The Grifter wanted to continue playing anyway, and indicated that I should watch. This table was filled with some of the worst players I've ever seen, but Grif had been giving them solid advice. He swung into action when the ploppy at first base picked up hard eleven. The Grifter boldly asserted, "Flip it over - we're going partners on that." He tossed the player the other half of the double down amount as the ploppy replied "Let's ride!" They won the hand when the dealer busted.

Grif worked the table for the next hour, getting a slew of partner-doubles and splits (including tens), demonstrating what Grosjean refers to as "scavenger blackjack." More often than not the others he was exploiting would thank him for "sharing the risk." I wandered off to another table for awhile and played solo, breaking even. Returning to The Grifter's table towards the end of the hour, I watched the master in action as he advised everyone - the life of the party as always, as he took advantage of one of his new "table partners who was declining insurance. The Grifter took the insurance bet and won and when the table partner asked how much he owed Grif he was told by a smiling Grifter, "all of it," whereupon the happless accomplice just shrugged and said, better you then them because, "Dude, your my advisor!" Shortly thereafter Grif colored up another 20 unit win at an otherwise unplayable table by any expert's evaluation - his style and outgoing personality allowing him to get away with things that I and most other counters would never even consider trying.
....

--End excerpt

SPEAKING OF "Holes"......
Posted by phantom007 on 21-Apr-2005 22:12:06 (#12833)

Sorry I missed the chance to play with ZG and SB in Feb. of this year! I heard later from SB that I missed "ONE HELL OF A SHOW"!

Anyhow, any stores in LV that still offer "Double Exposure", i.e., BOTH Dealer Cards Face-up, in trade for Dealer winning all ties???

I would presume that both would be played with M/L the same B.S., except that in Double Exposure, ALWAYS Expcted to hit your 19 vs. Dealer T,T, while if Hole-carding, probably should be done only once, and then, ON YOUR LAST PLAY before a quick exit!

Please educate.

ph.7.

Stratosphere is one. *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 22-Apr-2005 17:11:21 (#12838)

Zengrifter. Are you The Grifter? *NM*
Posted by Chancer on 27-Apr-2005 04:30:00 (#12861)

For the answer, go here -
Posted by zengrifter on 27-Apr-2005 15:17:51 (#12870)

http://cardcounter.com/Interview_Zen_Grifter.htm

Yes.....
Posted by Chancer on 28-Apr-2005 04:15:48 (#12880)

I kind of thought you were the same person.

I guess what threw me was that in the book you were depicted as a small stakes hustler, rather than what you relly are, a true master of the game. I do actually use your gambit mixed with Anderson's ultimate, and it has really made a massive difference to my results. So, a big thankyou for your inspiration.......

We try!
Posted by zengrifter on 30-Apr-2005 17:56:33 (#12895)

I paly in accordance w/my available capital - during much of the period of YGH I was awaiting sentencing and limited to red-green. zg

Announcing Viktor Nacht's Blackjack Halloween Ball
Posted by The Mayor on 22-Apr-2005 13:40:35 (#12837)

Viktor Nacht is putting together the greatest gathering of blackjack players in history!!! I encourage everyone to visit the website describing this groundbreaking event at...

http://www.HalloweenBlackjackBall.com

and then... go to it!

--Mayor

What he said.
Posted by Viktor Nacht on 26-Apr-2005 21:59:02 (#12860)

I want to thank The Mayor for posting this and letting me spam his site about the party.

With Max Rubin now involved, this is going to be even bigger, and even more fun, than originally planned. And with all the expertise that gets bandied about here, you guys should definitely pull together a team and compete for CC.com's honor. And it's going to be a great way to network with blackjack people, media people, or the dozen or so hot models I intend to hire to add 'color' to the festivities.

Whatever it takes to get you in the door.

Good Cards,

Las Vegas and Single Deck (6/5)
Posted by Anthony on 25-Apr-2005 08:51:37 (#12844)

Hello everyone,

This weekend while visiting familly and some different strip hotels. I couldn't believe the amount of SD tables with such horrible rules. In one casino they had appx 13 tables and everyone pays 6/5 w/no DAS, No evenmoney, but on a good note there was good penetration, although it doesn't make it a game to play.

They advertise 6/5 so small and promote the game like it's the best thing since sliced bread. I asked more than one pit boss is this a real single deck blackjack game?" She replies, "Yes it is." The same answers from the others.

I've lost a lot of respect for the casinos offering this horrible game and then to ad insult to injury they lie about the game, cover up the payoff, and give horrible rules.

While watching I seen one player hit a BJ with 2 greens and gotten paid $60. I felt like telling him, "you know, the Western would give you $15 more to play that same hand at thier store."

We gotto stop this or it's eventually going to be 6/5 on everything.

Anthony

whats the chance for pushes with 6 dck? *NM*
Posted by eyesfor21 on 25-Apr-2005 11:00:24 (#12846)

Around 6% I believe. *NM*
Posted by Sonny on 25-Apr-2005 19:57:02 (#12849)

"w/ No evenmoney"
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Apr-2005 23:08:26 (#12850)

"w/ No evenmoney" - thats a misnome, and its the one area where the could f**k the customers more even... but instead they still pay 2-1 on insurance bets EVEN when you hold BJ. zg

Zengrifter
Posted by Anthony on 26-Apr-2005 19:55:51 (#12859)

Hi,

I was wondering if anyone was going to pick up on that, but you're correct about 2-1 Ins. Curious about how many others would have "thought outside the box"

Take it Easy
Anthony

Anthony, drop me a line at...
Posted by zengrifter on 27-Apr-2005 15:16:40 (#12869)

... griftzen@yahoo.com. zg

Standard Deviation/Calculation for certain count strategies
Posted by NYCBIZ on 25-Apr-2005 09:09:58 (#12845)

Gentlemen,

Can you help a new player with a little math? If you have a standard deviation of 1.16 per hand (taken from wizardofodds.com), how do you obtain the standard deviation for, say, 500 hands. How about 1,000 hands?

In Professional Blackjack, Wong's "benchmark standard deviation" is $415 per hours (expected win rate is $16) for the various rules and betting pattern he uses. Any idea how he calculates that?

Finally, using the KO Preferred at a 1-5 spread, for anyone that has read that text, any idea what the standard deviation is there (or how to calculate it).

Best,
NYCBIZ

Calculating SD
Posted by Sonny on 25-Apr-2005 15:46:31 (#12848)

> If you have a standard deviation of 1.16 per hand (taken from
> wizardofodds.com), how do you obtain the standard deviation for, say, 500
> hands. How about 1,000 hands?

If your SD is 1.16 per hand then you can calculate your SD for several hands by multiplying your per hand SD by the square root of the number of hands. For example:

1.16 * SQRT(100) = 1.16 * 10 = 11.6 units per hour

1.16 * SQRT(500) = 1.16 * 22.36 = 25.9 units

1.16 * SQRT(1000) = 1.16 * 31.68 = 36.7 units

-Sonny-

Sitting on my 2004 BJ Profits.....
Posted by phantom007 on 26-Apr-2005 01:38:42 (#12852)

Literally, or subtitled "MAYBE I AIN'T READY EITHER!?".

The Mayor published on this board in "Golden Gate", and later in BJZ, re: "Being at least mentally set-back, after several hundred hours of practice, that 'HE WAS NOT READY', as told to him by a respected Pro."

I realized that likely, I AM NOT READY AS WELL. I play mostly AOII, +6/-6, with Ace-side on SD and sometimes DD. Mostly a "low-spreader with 1-2 Hands"...great title for a Porno flick..."2-Hand Low Spreader".

Anyhow, in 2004, the BJ God(s) were benevolent to me...+23k!

Subtracting $1k for misc. expenses, another $1k for Tourney buy-ins, $4k for NICE leather furniture, I HAVE LOST NEARLY $13k LEARNING to play Poker at PartyPoker.com....also including $4k BJ loss in Jan., '05....not exactly a "TILT", just simply OVERBETTING multiple decks/shoes FROM HELL!

So, quite literally, I am sitting on my 2004 BJ Profits! A nice leather sofa, chair, footstool thing, and LOVESEAT....Loveseat for a "about to be single guy"?
What do I do with this? Maybe I can sit on it while I watch "2-Hand Low Spreader"!

As to Poker, I am a much better player now! Technically, my Poker education is still cheaper than my BJ education. Having moved, and while unpacking stuff, I found:

---Multiple notes, re: AOII indicies, i.e., to expand skills past the basic +6/-6 level.
---CV Instruction books, complementing the CV-All software I bought and downloaded, but have rarely accessed, over a year ago.
---SmartCards Practice software.
---Wong's BJ Tourney software.
---Lots of books on BJ, Poker, and VP...just keep meaning to read these.

THEREFORE, I am going to stay out of Casinos for a few months, both regular and on-line. I need to "tune my skills"....I need to learn the value of a $....etc.
Oh, I can Count GOOD, but need to practice, and learn ST'ing, Ace-sequencing, optimal Tourney strategy, etc. Then get back to more extensive, though hopefully less expensive, Poker education!

HOPEFULLY, by late-Summer, I will be back in shape for the real stuff.

phantom007.

Questions...
Posted by The Mayor on 26-Apr-2005 10:08:16 (#12853)

>I HAVE LOST NEARLY $13k LEARNING to play Poker at PartyPoker.com

Questions.

1. Are you aware that at the higher limit tables there is often collusion going on between players, acting as a team?

2. Are you aware that there are computer programs that play online at the higher limit games, that play mathematically perfect poker?

3. Are you aware that some players use these same (or similar) programs to help them play?

I hope your education was worth it and that those couches are VERY comfortable!

--Mayor

What about?
Posted by Anthony on 27-Apr-2005 10:50:12 (#12865)

Phantom007

Have you thought about just concentrating on just one game to play. i.e. Blackjack or poker. Instead of spreading yourself out, just try and stay on one game and master it. If it's the high of gambling you're looking for, continue to play smart and have fun on all those games. However, if you're looking to make the money, stay with one thing and become the best at it.

Good Luck
Anthony

P.S. If you won 24K at Blackjack, you're probally pertty good!!!

Don't quite agree
Posted by The Mayor on 27-Apr-2005 11:08:40 (#12866)

Yes, it is wise to get good at one game, but believe me, the way to make a lot of money is to master a lot of games! That way, when you walk through the doors of a casino, you can just pick the one that seems to be the most lucrative at that moment. The word "candy store" implies more than one type of candy.

On the other hand, one should certainly master (or at least get pretty good) at a game before playing it for real money.

poker
Posted by John on 03-May-2005 06:17:31 (#12914)

Mayor,

Hi. If you recall, I was playing blackjack early last year and had a lot of success but realized after a few huge losses that I didn't have the stomach for it so I went to poker. I've basically been playing poker nearly ever single day online since last July. I started out losing but now I'm a winning player. I'm not so sure that Bots are really killing the games right now. I know that there are some good limit bots developed by Univ. of Alberta but I'm not sure how prevalent they are and if they are beating the game. It has been proven that a bot can beat a really low stakes game say maybe .50/1 limit but as for beating 5/10 limit. I don't think a bot can beat that game at this point. I play NL poker and if you study the game, it can be beaten. I would recommend playing NL because the game is more difficult and you really don't have to worry about bots in these games. Also, I'm no expert on collusion but I imagine collusion would not be as big of a factor in NL.

Tired of Back-offs and Flat's.....
Posted by phantom007 on 27-Apr-2005 23:18:38 (#12877)

Dear Anthony,

Would normally appreciate your advice. Actually, $23k for 2004. Anyhow, UNTIL I LEARN BETTER, I like to CAMP-OUT!

Typical Phantom Camping Trip:

1. Find a good SD or DD game...if "marginal", I can still beat it, at least for Comps., and usually for $.

2. Stay for 4-6-24-and yes, once, 36-hours, NO PROBLEM! Got the waitress trained to bring me a beer every 1/2-hour, PC trained to comp. me Smokes every 4 hours, Dealer trained to "deal out one more hand" when I place a "tip-bet" near "Shuffle Point". Perpetually full bladder leads to MANY DONG-OUT opportunities....leave in a Neg. TC to go PEE.

3. Sometimes "well-tipped" Dealers will tell me, "This table is under Survellience"....I make adjustments (BUT DO NOT LEAVE!). Sometimes, I hear Dealer tells PC to "put 1st Base under survelliance"...I make adjustments (BUT DO NOT LEAVE)....have often heard PC's say to each other "that Phantom-guy goes to 2 hands whenever the TC is Pos.!"....I "Dumb-up" for a few hands (BUT DO NOT LEAVE!).

OBVIOUSLY, I need to "grow-up" as regarding my BJ play. My entry into Poker, certainly, revolves around the fact that Casino's do not care how good I am.

Anyhow, since my PRIMARY POST above, I have finished Malmuth's "BJ ESSAYS", and am going to re-read Snyder's ST'er Cookbook...trying to EXPAND my horizons!

phantom007.

SOME ANSWERS (& comments)....
Posted by phantom007 on 27-Apr-2005 22:41:42 (#12876)

In Response to Questions:

1. Q: "Collusion among Players"?

A: YES! Read "Killer Poker Online" by John Vorhaus AND work with a man who was able to get onto PP.com for a couple of months, with 3 different handles & accts., and sometimes, play ALL 3 ON THE SAME TABLE, and transfer $$$ back-and-forth between accts. Got caught by PP.com survellience when he accidently logged in under one handle, but used a password from another. However, he was not barred, simply forced to consolidate accts., and play under one handle.

My primary Poker problem, just like BJ several years ago (before my initial BJ "Basic CC Education", is lots of small & BIG wins, a few "Bad Beats", then going on the "Mega-tilt". In BJ, I NOW know that if I get $3k ahead, then lose back $2k, it is just "THE NATURE OF THE GAME", as long as conditions, play, bet, etc., REMAIN THE SAME! Poker, at least "honest" poker is technically the same....just ain't quite learned "control" yet...you get ahead $2k, lose back $1k....in my mind, I am now $2k BEHIND, the $1k "profit" that I have lost back, plus another $1k to reimburse me for the time of these additional hands.

Having to learn (the Hard Way) of course, that the other players are not forced to play by a FIXED SET OF RULES, nor AM I.

2. Q: "Perfect Poker Play Programs" are out there?

A: Well not exactly. See my post on the NonBJ Board several weeks ago.

3. Q: These "Perfect Play Programs" are being used against you?

A: Probably so!

COMMENTS:

1. As is the point of MANY/MOST of my posts, since I do not have the skill/knowlege to overwhelm new students, I try to ENTERTAIN while trying to EDUCATE same on "WHAT NOT TO DO!". Certainly, I sacrifice my EGO in the process. No problem....THERAPY!

2. I am not quitting BJ, Casino Poker, nor for that matter, attendance to THE BJ BOARDS....just realized that I became VERY GOOD in BJ up to some Minor League AP level, then became content with Comps and +2004 Variance. Got to expand, got to be flexible....if CBJN says that Casino X has a great DD game, but when I get there, it sucks, but their 6D is SWEET + Simple Shuffle...I would usually leave....need to LEARN both to and "HOW TO" stick around.

3. Yes, my $3k Ashley leather furniture is very comfortable. Not quite as comfy as having #1440 Units in the B/R, but still comfy. Nice place to watch "2-Hand Spreader" porno flick when it comes out on DVD. I bought the "STAIN-RESISTANT" type, you know!

GRIN!

phantom007/

Phantom
Posted by MrPill on 02-May-2005 18:40:57 (#12908)

...sorry to hear about the breakup.

Pill

Royal Match Nirvana!
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Apr-2005 15:45:19 (#12854)

Playing at a local's spot last night, the regulars were pounding the RM 25-1 version as I iterated to them: "Its a sucker bet!"

Then I threw $2 on each of my two spots after I made change for a cocktail tip, and BAM! Two RMs at the same time!

Everyone was astonished, including dealers and PCs, no one had ever seen such a thing!

I immediately remarked that the odds were approximately 100,000-1 "and the bastards only paid me 25-1!"

I suppose the 'bad-luck' of it was that had one of the simultaneous RMs occured on the dealer's hand I would have been paid a $1000 bonus... but then I am unattached - Nirvana only occurs to those who are unattached!

Someday I'll share my 'other' recent Royal story. zg

Ps - I had a total of 5 RMs at that table in 2.5 hrs, though I didn't bet it anymore. The others who were aggressively betting it were increasingly saddened by my 'good-fortune.' They were ATTACHED!

There's a 25-1 version?
Posted by Sonny on 27-Apr-2005 09:31:00 (#12862)

> Playing at a local's spot last night, the regulars were pounding the RM 25-1
> version as I iterated to them: "Its a sucker bet!"

I thought most casinos used the 10:1 (3:1 for other matches) version. Are there many that offer the 25:1? Is that the double-deck version? The 10:1 SD version can yield a 1.4% houly advantage with a very similar hourly standard deviation as blackjack (with a good counting system). This 25:1 version could be money in the bank! What are the other details?

-Sonny-

Actually most casinos have the 25-1 version...
Posted by zengrifter on 27-Apr-2005 15:13:18 (#12868)

...which is vastly inferior to the 3-1/10-1 version - the 25-1 version only pays 2.5-1 on a regular match (housEdge 12+%) and is typically found on 2-6D tables where the 3/10 version would actually be a positive EV. zg

Does the RM still pay 10:1? *NM*
Posted by Sonny on 27-Apr-2005 15:33:34 (#12871)

no - 25-1 and 2.5-1 are the pays *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 27-Apr-2005 17:18:19 (#12874)

House edge
Posted by Sonny on 28-Apr-2005 11:53:52 (#12882)

> the 25-1 version only pays 2.5-1 on a regular match (housEdge 12+%) and is
> typically found on 2-6D tables where the 3/10 version would actually be a
> positive EV. zg

I calculated 8.33% for the DD and 6.67% for the shoe version, but I could be wrong. At least the hourly SD would be somewhat less due to the smaller payouts and less frequest playing opportunities. Either way, that's a tough nut to crack. It's probably more trouble than it's worth.

-Sonny-

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