Recent content by actuary

Oh, is that right? Yeah, I assumed both players rolled three dice. That means that my above numbers are wrong. If its five dice being rolled and all turn up 6, then the probability is (1/6)^5 which is 1 in 7,776. The probability of having exactly two such events in a game with 50 turns...

Yes, your error lays in the fact that you did not account for all combinations that would produce 666 and 66X (X not 6). There are 6 possible ways to roll 3 sixes and 2 sixes. The possible combinations are: 666-66X 666-6X6 666-X66 66X-666 6X6-666 X66-666 You also need to multiply by 5/6 for...

I don't drink alcohol, so it wasn't that. Two guys came up and asked to see my ID. They told me some bullspit about AGCO rules that prohibited me from playing based on my ID (my Quebec drivers license). I forget the reason they stated or what part of the Act they cited, but whatever it was, it...

Hey, I think its actually 1 in 1,555. Isn't it just a binomial 6C5 * (1/6)^5 * (5/6) ? That equation simply represents the probability of rolling 5 sixes in 6 rolls of a dice. How many turns did you take in your risk game? If it was a combined 100, then the probability of this event...

I played at this casino once, back when I was living in Toronto, maybe about 4 years ago. From my first hand on their 6D table, I lost 14 hands in a row. Not pushes, I'm talking pure losses. And I was wonging, playing positive counts only. I might have gone on to lose more hands in a row...

Nice trainer! I noticed an error in the basic strategy for the S17 Spanish game, 6/8 decks. 16 vs A is not a surrender, its a hit. See http://wizardofodds.com/spanish21 or Walker's book.

No, this was a long time ago. I can't remember if it was a charity casino or a temporary casino in Canada, or maybe it was in Australia. It could be gone now, but I definitely remember the bet and going to the bar to figure out at what count to play it.

I've seen this before, but I can't remember where... It was 10:1 as well.

I think its time for the casinos to introduce some new games. Freshen themselves up. New and innovative slot machines - we have seen amazing things with video gaming that they should be able to borrow from. There was discussion a few years back about skill-based slots, games you compete...

You should probably stay away from the casino until you can work out your anger/gambling problem. You can be the best card counter in the world, but if you go and play roulette every time you have a losing day, you are going to go broke in the long run.

Well its a question of what kind of spread do you need to make it worth your time. Of course, this only applies if you are playing every hand. Sure, the game can be beaten with 1-12, but I think for most, something along the lines of 1-20+ is necessary to make it worth their time.

You may be right about the publication and I hope casinos stay clueless about Spanish 21. However, I respectfully disagree with you with regards to requiring a huge spread. You DO NOT need a huge spread if you wong. And since the house edge is usually lower than most available blackjack games...

Is there no mid-shoe entry? Because I think wonging is still an option as long as is there is mid-shoe entry. Just pull your bet back and wait for a count > -3. I do it all the time. Sure, you are going to get nasty comments from other players for breaking the flow, but we don't care about...

You don't need that kind of spread if you wong. And it is very easy to wong in Spanish 21 since there is so little heat associated with this game. Who knows how long that will last, though, since the cat is officially out of the bag with the publication of Walker's book. Where there are...

I'd say you are partially correct. Its true about the standard deviation of poker being high due to the weighting of part of the EV on the royal flush. But, I only say you are partially correct because the odds of hitting a royal (JOB) is 1 in 40,391. It sounds like a lot, but you do play...