Recent content by David Spence

I like it.

Something's wrong here. The first description sounds like that of a single-deck game. The second, a six-deck shoe. I think all the readers (myself included) of your "story" are the only victims of a confidence game here :-)

Forte's statement does imply that the distinction between an AP and a cheater can be arbitrary, and Munchkin's examples certainly further this point. I think it's hard to draw good analogies between different forms of casino play and, say, rape or torture. If the laws were to change suddenly...

By "shottaking," I specifically mean things such as betting more than the game allows, making ambiguous hand signals, making "accidental" bets, etc. None of these has nearly the long-term value of, say, hole carding, which I engage in at every opportunity. Hole carding and other high-edge moves...

I'm on the side of the fence that tries to take as much money from casinos as possible using any legal means. That said, I generally avoid shottaking. When a shottaking opportunity is presented, and I let it go, I sometimes even think something to the effect of, "That would be beneath me." But...

Steve is simply giving an accurate definition of two professions, with which I completely agree. I think we sometimes make the mistake of confusing what is legal and what is moral. Hole carding, for example, has been found in the courts to be legal. Even if someone considers the practice...

Ha! Maybe that's why she seemed so exhausted after her half hour break.

Correct! And, as it turned out, today was part of that 80% :-) Solution: Say you see her working on a Friday. The possibilities for her two consecutive days off are: MT, TW, WTh, SaSu, SuM We want to know the probability that she'll be working the next day, Saturday. Of her five possible...

A valid point, but pretend there are no scheduling biases such as this. One hint: it is significant that the dealer's days off are consecutive.

A dealer you like always has the same, consecutive two days off each week. She was working today. Unfortunately, you forgot to ask her about her schedule. What is the probability that she will be working tomorrow? (Assume she never calls in sick, takes vacation, etc.)

I'm not at home so I don't have the book handy, but Theory of Blackjack has a chart that gives evs conditioned on the player's first card. I assume the information is also in The Good Book, since it has a large section on next card play. But, from my recollection, Ace and 10 are the only cards...

Great interview! Lots of practical information. I look forward to next week's with Vinnie DeCarlo.

I used fractional indexes for insurance for SD and DD games (+1.5 hilo for SD, +2.5 hilo for DD, rounded to nearest .5). I also made composition-based adjustments. I don't claim this made much difference, but my thought was that, not only is insurance the single most important count-based...

I thought 21 was spot-on. It accurately depicts the day-to-day challenges any working AP must face. My only criticism, and this is really just a quibble, is that they didn't use rocket shoes to travel from one casino to another. All the pros I know use rocket shoes (or teleporters, if traffic is...

The use of a players card is often an enormous mistake for an AP. If and when you do get backed off, a players card can forever tarnish whatever name is associated with that card. Depending on the network to which that casino belongs, the name associated with your card could be poisoned at many...