JohnCrover
Banned
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Variance in blackjack
- Thread starter JohnCrover
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beating vegas
Well-Known Member
How many hours have you played ?JohnCrover said:
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
Just a quick adding up in my head, the 6 losing days listed add up to just over 16k.
Playing roughly the same max bet, I have experienced FIVE (5) different losing periods or streaks of 30k (or more) in my career. Four of them lasting 5 months or more, playing almost everyday. It happens.
To survive, you need 2 things. 1.) the bankroll to play properly and get through such a period and 2.) and probably more important, the mentality to play through such a period.
The second one is hard. It is something you have to learn. Extended losing period can wear on you. Can wear you down. Start to play tricks on you. Every day, the first max bet you lose, you say or think "here we go again". But at some point it will change and you will start winning again. And shockingly, those losses over that time come rolling back pretty quickly and then some. That is the way it works. You either learn to deal with this or you find something else to do, because THIS is part of the game of blackjack card counting.
Playing roughly the same max bet, I have experienced FIVE (5) different losing periods or streaks of 30k (or more) in my career. Four of them lasting 5 months or more, playing almost everyday. It happens.
To survive, you need 2 things. 1.) the bankroll to play properly and get through such a period and 2.) and probably more important, the mentality to play through such a period.
The second one is hard. It is something you have to learn. Extended losing period can wear on you. Can wear you down. Start to play tricks on you. Every day, the first max bet you lose, you say or think "here we go again". But at some point it will change and you will start winning again. And shockingly, those losses over that time come rolling back pretty quickly and then some. That is the way it works. You either learn to deal with this or you find something else to do, because THIS is part of the game of blackjack card counting.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
Are you absolutely sure you haven't crossed over into "chasing" mode? It is easy to do. You get down 5 figures plus and you can almost talk yourself out of placing the small bets, waiting for the good counts. I mean you aren't going to win back 5 figures betting $25.
Do you have a playing partner or anybody that can just check to be sure you are playing right and some form of chasing hasn't set in? Maybe betting big before it is right to do so.
Do you have a playing partner or anybody that can just check to be sure you are playing right and some form of chasing hasn't set in? Maybe betting big before it is right to do so.
Your problem is the money. Don't think of it as money, it's chips. As soon as you sit down they separate you from you money and give you chips. If you have the bankroll like you say, keeping firing away. If you don"t you do not have mentality to play the game. Scared money will cost you.
beating vegas
Well-Known Member
What’s your STD amount ?JohnCrover said:
If your in within it or very close don’t worry about the game.
But running a deck is only a small portion of the check out. If you didn’t get a check out get one done.
Counting_Is_Fun
Well-Known Member
You post the same thing every few weeks.JohnCrover said:
Don't believe you anymore.
Honestly I think you are a troll that doesn't play real BJ.
Or you just don't know what you are doing. Probably both.
Hell'nBack
Well-Known Member
JohnCrover said:
I don't care about the number of hours. How many big bets do you have? Be honest and don't lie.
beating vegas
Well-Known Member
What is your bet spread ?JohnCrover said:
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
This "I don't think I am losing" quote is kind of bizarre. A professional or even a non-professional but serious player, ought to damn right KNOW whether he is winning or losing over any period of time. Anyone not keeping records to know this is not playing seriously. Even Zee and his bizarre "shoebox" accounting from his early years knew if he was winning or losing. 
Another quote from that same post: "I am think I am about even..." This one reminds me of my grandfather, a life long horse racing guy (like 5 times a week type guy). When I would ask him how he had done over his life, he always said "I am about even". He wasn't! And he was not alone. A lot of gamblers, of all sort, playing -EV games, if you ask them how they have done over any period of time, the answer is always "about even".
Another quote from that same post: "I am think I am about even..." This one reminds me of my grandfather, a life long horse racing guy (like 5 times a week type guy). When I would ask him how he had done over his life, he always said "I am about even". He wasn't! And he was not alone. A lot of gamblers, of all sort, playing -EV games, if you ask them how they have done over any period of time, the answer is always "about even".
beating vegas
Well-Known Member
Advantage Play isn’t for every one.
JohnCrover
Banned
Yeah bro I just woke up one day with $90,000 under my pillowKewlJ said:This "I don't think I am losing" quote is kind of bizarre. A professional or even a non-professional but serious player, ought to damn right KNOW whether he is winning or losing over any period of time. Anyone not keeping records to know this is not playing seriously. Even Zee and his bizarre "shoebox" accounting from his early years knew if he was winning or losing.
Another quote from that same post: "I am think I am about even..." This one reminds me of my grandfather, a life long horse racing guy (like 5 times a week type guy). When I would ask him how he had done over his life, he always said "I am about even". He wasn't! And he was not alone. A lot of gamblers, of all sort, playing -EV games, if you ask them how they have done over any period of time, the answer is always "about even".
Counting_Is_Fun
Well-Known Member
Lol. Some people just will not accept help, no matter how many times it is offered.JohnCrover said:
Cookingwithcards
Active Member
I think KJ is just trying to be honest, and helpful! I know it's easier to resort with sarcasm. However if he could be right, you might want to at least give it some consideration, and real thought, before dismissing it altogether. Just a thought....I am not judging either way, since I don't have a long history here! Just trying to help, I've seen the same type of people described by KJ, years ago, betting the dog races, 5 times a week, playing poker, and always "about even"! Hope variance swings your way soon!JohnCrover said:
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
Like you, I have no problem with players venting a bit about extended losing periods. I did it at times.psyduck said:
I am not talking about your garden variety variance that is part of the game and a player better damn quickly learn to deal with, but rather extended losing, lasting many, many sessions, weeks or months, depending on how often you play. Sessions that eat up 20-30% of total bankroll. This area is one of the areas that most younger, newer players are just not prepared for. You can read about it in book, and know it may come, but when it does, you are not ready for it. It changes everything you thought you knew. You begin questioning everything.My worse period was several years after I moved to Las Vegas, so that would be 7-8 years into my career. I lost for 6 months. Not everyday of course, but a steady decline backwards. I was down 30% of my total BR. Like I said, your mind starts playing tricks and you start questioning everything. I remember thinking what if those first 6 or 7 years, I had just been lucky?
( A 7 year lucky streak...)So you do some venting and a few other players chime in about how they have gone through similar periods, and it helps put things back in order.
And I think reading about it on a forum, with a player you sort of know can help prepare a newer player, better than just reading in a book that this kind of variance can occur. A newer player going through his worst downturn, might remember that so-and-so from the forum, went through that and came out the other side. Sort of a real person, even if you don't personally know them. To me, that sharing and learning from other's experiences has always been one of the big benefits of these forums. Unfortunately, there is a lot less of that and much more pissing contests and name calling these days.
psyduck
Well-Known Member
I don't know why the OP seemed to be uncomfortable about this subject. Nothing beats hearing real experiences from real players, especially honest players. I am sure that is why some members continue to like reading KJ's posts. I still believe he is honest about the game even when it's about losses.