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#61
August 23rd, 2011, 11:54 AM
 HockeXpert Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 246

Quote:
 Originally Posted by psyduck These are some good points. However, without a good chance of catching a BJ, the player does not have an advantage over the dealer because the ace can go to the dealer's hand, I think.
You get the ace = 52% advantage.
Dealer gets the ace = 36% disadvantage.

I'll take those odds.
#62
August 23rd, 2011, 07:09 PM
 aslan Executive Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Las Vegas, NV Posts: 3,783

Quote:
 Originally Posted by psyduck Sure, if you play four hands, you further increase the chance of catching that ace. But how much are you willing to risk for that ace? If it happens to be in low counts, even if one of your hands catches the ace, the rest are still at disadvantage.
If I am playing two hands head up with the dealer, I like my chances of getting the ace and winning the hand. I also like my chances of a bj, more so in a plus count, but even in a negative count. It's not rocket science. If the odds favored you to get an ace, are you telling me you would not raise your bet?
#63
August 23rd, 2011, 07:57 PM
 psyduck Executive Member Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 404

Quote:
 Originally Posted by aslan If I am playing two hands head up with the dealer, I like my chances of getting the ace and winning the hand. I also like my chances of a bj, more so in a plus count, but even in a negative count. It's not rocket science. If the odds favored you to get an ace, are you telling me you would not raise your bet?
The key words are "if you know". I still think in shoe games there are too many false key cards. Do you have any quantitative data to show how your ace prediction compares to other techniques such as counting?
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#64
August 23rd, 2011, 09:25 PM
 aslan Executive Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Las Vegas, NV Posts: 3,783

Quote:
 Originally Posted by psyduck The key words are "if you know". I still think in shoe games there are too many false key cards. Do you have any quantitative data to show how your ace prediction compares to other techniques such as counting?
At least in what you are quoting of mine, I did not say "if you know", I said "if the odds favored you". ZG did some write up on key carding elsewhere (it's searchable). It shows the simple odds, and yes, it potentially can be much better than card counting if you're good at it.

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