Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com Help me prove a foolish friend wrong!
 User Name Remember Me? Password
 Register FAQ Members List Social Groups Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

 Thread Tools Display Modes
#1
November 7th, 2011, 01:36 PM
 forest8016 Member Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 1
Help me prove a foolish friend wrong!

My friend has gotten into an argument with me about betting in roulette. He believes betting 1 unit on zeroes (1/19 chance in the long run) and then DOUBLING (lol martingale) every 19 spins would yield a profit. He argues the a computer is never 'truly' random and is bound to hit 0 eventually (ala Gambler's Fallacy). The flaw in this is that at our particular casino, roulette pays 0's out 18 to 1 and I told him that. His rebuke was to instead double your bet every 18 spins instead then.

Is anyone able to run this through a simulator and produce some numbers?

#2
November 7th, 2011, 02:09 PM
 shadroch Executive Member Join Date: May 2006 Location: NYC Posts: 4,550

Quote:
 Originally Posted by forest8016 My friend has gotten into an argument with me about betting in roulette. He believes betting 1 unit on zeroes (1/19 chance in the long run) and then DOUBLING (lol martingale) every 19 spins would yield a profit. He argues the a computer is never 'truly' random and is bound to hit 0 eventually (ala Gambler's Fallacy). The flaw in this is that at our particular casino, roulette pays 0's out 18 to 1 and I told him that. His rebuke was to instead double your bet every 18 spins instead then. Is anyone able to run this through a simulator and produce some numbers? Thanks in advance.

The problem with a system like this is it will work the vast majority of the time, so it is hard to disprove. If you bet one unit for the first 18 spins, and two units for the next 17, then three for the next 16, the chances of you hitting a zero once in that sequence are extremely high. The problem is that eventually you will hit a sequence that zero does not come up and you'll lose your shirt. Can a wheel go three hundred spins without hitting a zero? Of course. Will it? Eventually.
__________________
Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out just how far one can go.

We cannot direct the wind, we can only adjust our sails.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Forums     General     Skilled Play - Card Counting, Advanced Strategies, Game Variations, Theory and Math     Blackjack - Online Casinos     Site Announcements and Administrative Issues Geographic Areas     Las Vegas     Western USA     Midwest USA     Southern USA     Eastern USA     Outside of USA Miscellaneous     Blackjack - CardCounter.com archives

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 06:21 PM.