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#1
July 26th, 2011, 12:14 PM
 FrankieT Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 252

Can anyone answer these fundamental questions for this basic scenario:

2d
Hi-Lo
0.8 cut off
LL10

What is the EV gained from the side bet if you bet \$25x2 at +7 and \$50x2 at +8 and higher? Added RoR to a \$10k BR?

Is there a simple side count worth adding? How much EV is it worth using the aforementioned betting strategy?

If anybody could answer any one of these questions it'd be swell.
#2
July 26th, 2011, 02:14 PM
 Daggers Member Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: i was there and now im here Posts: 64

maybe a side count of aces? i know a side count of 7 is pretty useful. im not too sure about my advice so you should ask the others on here but i would say a side count of aces would work well although i don't know the exact EV.
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#3
July 26th, 2011, 03:00 PM
 tthree Banned Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,146

Use the Jstat/Fry with a strike point of TC +10. Your EV is about double than using HILO for the side bet.
#4
July 26th, 2011, 06:08 PM
 FrankieT Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 252

I noticed in QFIT's analysis of LL he said that it requires decent pen.

What kind of pen is required to get a decent return on lucky ladies (a worthwhile return in my book being 6 units an hour or better with a RoR of 2% for \$10k).
#5
July 27th, 2011, 10:43 AM
 Automatic Monkey Banned Join Date: May 2006 Location: Connecticut Posts: 4,537

Quote:
 Originally Posted by FrankieT I noticed in QFIT's analysis of LL he said that it requires decent pen. What kind of pen is required to get a decent return on lucky ladies (a worthwhile return in my book being 6 units an hour or better with a RoR of 2% for \$10k).
The LL sidebet correlates reasonably well to any count you would use for playing and betting. If a DD game is worth playing at all, the LL is free money added on top of whatever your win rate would be. Because LL requires a more extreme count to be profitable than BJ, it will be more dependent on pen.

If the LL max bet is high relative to your BJ max bet, you might be better off using a tens count (JSTAT/Fry, insurance count, Hi-Opt 1 or 2, etc.) depending on what your needs and capabilities are. But if you're the kind of guy who can bet a \$500 max on a table with a \$25 max LL bet, it's not worth it in any situation to cheat yourself out of BJ EV to squeeze a few extra dollars out of the LL.
#6
August 3rd, 2011, 06:35 PM
 FrankieT Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 252

I guess the question should be how much do you make by betting \$25x2 on +7 and higher counts for a 0.8 pen game. There's no point in asking the amount made by betting higher than that since the limit is generally \$25 - so i've learned and seen for myself.
#7
August 11th, 2011, 12:59 PM
 EmeraldCityBJ Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 118

I don't remember the exact numbers off the top of my head, primarily because I decided long ago not to waste my time with Lucky Ladies.

If you're betting \$25 at +7, I am pretty sure your hourly win rate from the bet is <\$25 per hour. The problem is that you'll probably end up pissing away losing bets for hundreds of hours, and then get paid your EV in one lump sum the day you finally get the Qh pair. The variance is pretty ridiculous, so unless you are able to spend hundreds or thousands of hours on the game, you're just gambling.

For side counts, the only card that provides a significant amount of additional information is the Qh. As they deal deeper into the deck, the TC required to have an edge on the LL bet decreases, as long as both of the queens are still live. Side counting any other card won't give you much information beyond what you'd get from your primary counting system.
#8
September 3rd, 2011, 04:18 PM
 cityman Member Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 6

I dabble in Lucky Ladies sidebets here and there, but unfortunately the TC of +7 just doesn't come around often enough. I generally dare to put out a \$1 bet after seeing a whole slew of small cards played. I figure it makes me fit in with the pploppies a little better. Wouldn't you know it, though...I got both Queens of Hearts in a DD game a couple weeks ago with no sidebet option...
#9
September 4th, 2011, 11:04 AM
 Gamblor Executive Member Join Date: Mar 2011 Location: Casino backroom Posts: 693

Quote:
 Originally Posted by cityman I dabble in Lucky Ladies sidebets here and there, but unfortunately the TC of +7 just doesn't come around often enough. I generally dare to put out a \$1 bet after seeing a whole slew of small cards played. I figure it makes me fit in with the pploppies a little better. Wouldn't you know it, though...I got both Queens of Hearts in a DD game a couple weeks ago with no sidebet option...
I had two QHs in one session. Not betting then either

Even with that pay scale, the +7 comes up not too infrequently with a certain excellent condition.
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#10
September 5th, 2011, 06:28 AM
 FrankieT Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 252

Quote:
 Originally Posted by EmeraldCityBJ I don't remember the exact numbers off the top of my head, primarily because I decided long ago not to waste my time with Lucky Ladies. If you're betting \$25 at +7, I am pretty sure your hourly win rate from the bet is <\$25 per hour. The problem is that you'll probably end up pissing away losing bets for hundreds of hours, and then get paid your EV in one lump sum the day you finally get the Qh pair. The variance is pretty ridiculous, so unless you are able to spend hundreds or thousands of hours on the game, you're just gambling. For side counts, the only card that provides a significant amount of additional information is the Qh. As they deal deeper into the deck, the TC required to have an edge on the LL bet decreases, as long as both of the queens are still live. Side counting any other card won't give you much information beyond what you'd get from your primary counting system.
I don't know about the EV of the bet relying that much on the QHQH.

I was looking on wizardofodds, and half the EV from the bet comes from the 4:1. About 1/4 comes from the 10:1. . 1/5 from the 25:1.

The 200:1 and 1000:1 account for about 1/10 of the EV.

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